The Duran Podcast - US-Iran Ceasefire Talks. Conflict Round 3 Is Coming

Episode Date: June 23, 2026

US-Iran Ceasefire Talks. Conflict Round 3 Is Coming

All right, Alexander, let's do an update on the negotiations between the United States and Iran, which are taking place in Switzerland with J.D. Vance, Whitkoff and Kushner on the American side, and Galibati on the Iranian side. Pakistan and Qatar are mediating. The talks started over the weekend, and then Trump posted on true social, spoke to Fox News about hitting Tehran or hitting Iran if the talks don't work out. And so Arachi decided to walk out of the talks, but then we got messages from Pakistan and Qatar that the talks actually progressed and the result was positive. Even Arachi posted on X that the talks have progressed quite a bit, especially on Hormuz.

the sea blockade, and there is some sort of a framework that is being put in place for Lebanon to get the fighting in Lebanon to end. That is what Pakistan said, Qatar-Araqi. So that's an update on what has happened in Switzerland, 18 hours of talks. Your thoughts? 18 hours of talks, and one gets the sensor for the first time, they're talking about actual real things. But notice they're not talking, what they're not talking about apparently, which is Iran's nuclear enrichment program, its uranium enrichment program, which was what, of course, they were all talking about before 28th of February, when the attack took place. and, you know, there's no suggestion any longer about, you know,

dismantling Iran's ballistic missiles or major political changes in Iran or any of those things. So we are talking about a framework agreement, which is a framework agreement, which takes the process forward, but which ultimately follows Iran's agenda. It's the Iranians who want the seat blockade lifted. It's the Iranians who want to start trading normally with the outside world. It's the Iranians who want the Americans to pull back from close to their borders. And it is the Iranians who also want a framework agreement covering Lebanon where there has been fighting going on, not between the Iran and the United States, but between Israel and Hezbollah.

And this is all very difficult for some people in the United States, unsurprisingly, to accept, because it's a product of what is ultimately, and we shouldn't, you know, skate the words, an American defeat in this conflict that's happened up to this time. And Trump, of course, is making these very belligerent, very confrontation, statements, which at some points create problems in the negotiations, because he is coming under heavy criticism, both publicly, but also in private, from those people who went, pushed for the war against Iran before the 28th of February, seeking ultimately, not just the kind of framework agreements we're seeing now, but regime change, the

scrapping of Iran's ballistic missiles, the termination of all enrichment activities in Iran, and the transformation of Iran ultimately into a U.S. Israeli vassal state. So these people are furious. You're getting reports that they say that they're feeling betrayed. we've had articles appearing by John Bolton criticizing Trump. We've had a four and a half hour meeting between Trump and Lindsay Graham. Media outlets in Israel that are connected with Miriam Adelson are coming out and are criticizing Trump, this talk of betrayal, all of those sort of things.

And Trump is annoyed and upset about this. and he's on the defensive, and that's why he's coming out and is coming out with these belligerent statements. Ultimately, though, he is not going to resume the war at this time, because if he does resume the war, if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which the Iranians, by the way, are sort of suggesting they have reimposed, but if this remains permanent, we are indeed going to have an economic crisis in the West and in the United States. Trump has even said that in that situation, he would be like Herbert Hoover, the president who basically led the United States into the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Trump doesn't want that. So we have these belligerent statements, we have this aggressive language, but none of this ultimately is real, the talks between the Americans and the Iranians continue for the time being following the Iranian agenda. But the fact that all this rhetoric is taking place, that the neocons are mobilizing, that they are already now spinning a new narrative, that victory was in America's grasp, that all that Trump needed to do was, was to activate the Kurdish militias in Iraq who were supposedly ready to advance into Iran. That narrative is going to grow.

We've got to expect that that's going to develop. There's going to be articles appearing about it and talk about how Trump somehow muffed it. That narrative is going to develop and the criticisms are going to grow. And sooner or later, I suspect, as they always do, the neocons will manage to derail this process. And as we've discussed in recent programs, sooner or later, we'll be back to confrontation between Iran and the United States again. But for the moment, Trump has to continue with this process, this negotiating process, because he has no alternative but to do so. He cannot risk the kind of massive recession that the oil executives, the oil companies have warned him about. Yeah, well, the neocons don't think about stuff like that.

No, no. And for the neocons, they're always so close to victory, if only. If only this person did X, Y, and Z, then they would have been victorious. We've been hearing that for the neocons for the past 20, 30 years. What's new? The question for me that I have with Trump is, will he hold off the neocons for the remainder of his term and then pass this off to the next president, or will he fold? He's not going to start anything. Most likely, we're not going to get a resumption of the conflict, or at least a

full-scale resumption of the conflict until after the midterms. That would be my guess. He's going to wait until the midterms are all wrapped up. The reserves are going to refill, restock, maybe some stability in the economic situation, in the energy situation, rearm with regards to military stockpiles. So you've got to imagine that's going to take time six months to a year. And then, of course, you have the midterms. So a full-scale conflict until the midterms, unlikely. Not impossible, but I would guess unlikely. And then we get to the question of after the midterms. Trump has two years left. So can, does he want to and can he hold back the neocons and drag this out for two years and then just pass it off to the next administration? Or does he

fold? I think that Donald Trump has always folded to the neocons whenever he has found himself in direct confrontation with them. I mean, the fact that he has met and spoken with Lindsay Graham, apparently for four and a half hours, I mean, that tells you absolutely everything. A president who had clearly made up his mind would have met Lindsay for 30 minutes and told him, look, Lindsay, this is my decision.

Go away. I mean, the fact that he's prepared to speak to him for this long, again, what he chose, is that Trump is nervous and afraid of these people. And I think that sooner or later, he will indeed resume a confrontation with Iran. Sooner or later, the United States will resume a confrontation with Iran, whether or not Trump wants it.

Remember, the neocons are strong within the Republican Party. The neocons are also strong within the Democratic Party as well. So, yes, it's not going to happen before the midterms, exactly as you say. It cannot happen. It's going to take longer, actually, than waiting until after the midterms. Rebuilding the petroleum reserve, I've been told, would be a task of two or three years. to bring it back to where it was before Biden took over and started to deplete it in 2022 at the time of the crisis that happened, you know, after the start of the special military operation, when oil prices rose and Biden began to deplete the reserve to try to bring prices down. So getting back to that point will take two or three years of a stable situation in the oil markets.

Getting to the point where U.S. weapons inventories are back to the level that they were before the war, and even more so before 2022, when the United States began to deplete its reserves to support U.S. Zelensky is also going to take years. So if Trump explains all this to the neocons, say, look, I can't do this with the weapons I have or the weapons I am likely to have for two or three years' time, well, that would give us a kind of timeline. But as you rightly say, near cons never, ever care about these things, they're going to push for war to resume quickly because they always do. And the iron rule is that Trump eventually ultimately always falls. This is my guess. They will produce a lot of weapons. They will stop by these weapons. They're

not going to transfer them to Zelensky or anyone else because now the overriding priority is to reverse this defeat that they've had with Iran. So he's going to stop by weapons. He's going to try and build up the inventories to the extent that he can. And then this time next year, we will see again a resumption of the confrontation with Iran, with the negotiations in the meantime going nowhere. That, I suspect, is the most plausible timeline. Look, I imagine a lot of the discussion with Lindsay Graham focused on the midterms. Absolutely. I mean, Trump has good leverage over Graham in that he's telling Graham,

look, back off or support me at least for a while. Don't go too hard against me. And then I'll support you during the midterms. I mean, I saw some of the posts that Graham put up that Trump put up over the weekend. And Graham was

kind of supporting Trump. He was supporting Trump with the negotiations. And Trump was supporting Graham in South Carolina. So you've got to to imagine over the next six to nine months, that's kind of the deal that they're working out, right? You know, I'll get you reelected in South Carolina. Don't go too hard against me and what I've done with Iran. I imagine that's what they were kind of bargaining. But once the midterms

are over, then, you know, it's everything is fair game, right? A four and a half hour meeting suggests a very contentious meeting to me. I absolutely agree with you that that is the ultimate a deal. And that's the framework that Graham and Trump have agreed with each other. But I'm sure that in private, Graham pushed back much harder than he's doing in public. And Trump hit back. And you can see the results in some of the comments on true social that Trump has been pushing. So people who are in basic agreement with each other do not need to speak for four and a half hours. There was clearly recriminations and arguments going on. I suspect Graham wants the thing to be moved forward faster. Trump is trying to explain to him that, look, we've got to do with

the petroleum reserves, our inventories, all of those kind of things. Graham probably wasn't really in the mood to listen. And all of these things, there is something people need to understand about the neocons, which is this, even more important than controlling US foreign policy for the neocons is maintaining their own political position, their lock grip of the US government in Washington. For the neocons to be able to do that, they need to distance any narrative from any idea that there is a limit to what the United States can do. If there is a general acceptance that the United States can only do so much in any given situation, then the neocons position starts to become more vulnerable because for them, pushing forward

implies that the United States has essentially unlimited power, and if they can't push forward, if they can't push the United States to confrontation all the time, then what is the point of them? So almost by definition, they are never going to accept that there are limits to American power and that there are limits to what the United States is. can do. They are always going to insist that it is within the US's power to do anything. And they are

going to say that the failure to achieve the objective is not because American power has limits. It's because there has been at some level a lack of political will. And that's why they're now spinning this story about Kurdish militias, supposedly ready to bounce an immigration. Iran, which for some reason, supposedly because Erdogan objected, Donald Trump didn't activate. Of course, had there really been these militias ready to pounce on Iran in the way that the neocons are now saying, Donald Trump would have done it. He's not going to stop because Erdogan objects. But that's not important for the neocons.

They need some argument. They need some story out there to always. argue that victory was within the U.S.'s grasp and its weakness at the center, a lack of political will, which explains why that victory was not achieved. They tried the Kurd thing. They tried it. It was a no-go. It was a no-go.

So what they're saying is nonsense. But most people have forgotten about, that was way in the beginning of the conflicts of the neocons probably figured that most people have forgotten about the whole Kurd thing and how the Kurds told the Trump administration, no way if we go into Iran, we're going to get slaughtered. And so they're back to the current thing. They'll start soon with Russia's to blame and China's to blame as well. And if only we had given Reza Palabi F-16s, then we would have won the conflict or something like that, right? If we had only given them the wonder weapon that they needed and said whatever. Okay, that's the

neocons. How do you deal with Israel if you're the Trump administration because you have the neocons and you have to deal with them and then you have to figure out a way to get Israel to stop the fighting in Lebanon? How do you deal with that one? That is the number one topic, the number one point on the memorandum of understanding and Iran is holding firm on that red line. they are not backing off from the red line of a secession to hostilities in Lebanon. There is some talk that the Trump administration might be looking to remove Netanyahu, that they are talking with other parties, other political parties to sideline Netanyahu. In theory, nothing should be easier for the United States than to reign in Israel.

Look at the power of the United States. Look at the power and size of Israel. obvious to anyone who the dominant party is. As we all know, it is not that simple. The Trump administration has aligned itself very closely with Israel's friends in Washington. The military industrial complex in the United States is very, very closely aligned with Israel as well. is very, very difficult politically for any American president to do what Trump actually needs to do in this situation, which is to bring Israel to heal. And I think ultimately to try to get the Israelis, not just to stop in Lebanon, but to actually withdraw from Lebanon. Because if the Israelis

remain in Lebanon for any length of time, then fighting with Hezbollah is certain to resume because Hezbollah, remember, began as a resistance movement against the Israeli army in the 1980s and 1990s, which at that time was occupying southern Lebanon. So is Hezbollah's entire reason for existence is, was to oppose Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon. And if the Israelis remain in Lebanon, that calculus, that whole motivation will kick in again. So Trump has to do something which no U.S. president has done, basically since Eisenhower, in the 50s, he's got to get the Israelis, not just to stop, but to withdraw. Eisenhower in the 1950s told, in 1956, told the Israelis, pull out of,

Sinai, which the Israelis had occupied in the 1956, Israel-Egypt war, the Israelis were furious, they protested, they had to do it in the end. Can Trump do that now? He could in theory achieve it. He could tell the Israelis if you, you know, continue with what you're doing. We're going to cut off USAID. We might even start reducing our commitment to your air defense. You could do all kinds of things which could force the Israelis to withdraw. But does he have the political will and the political strength to do these things? That is a very, very big question.

And coming back to Trump's ultimate problem, which, to be clear, is the neocons in Washington. They, of course, are going to work very closely with Israelis to try to sabotage this process in every possible way that they can. Perhaps they don't also want an immediate return to war, but they will try to keep Israeli forces in Lebanon so that this situation can continue to be tense, so that relations between the United States and Iran never fully move forward. We don't start to see a movement towards a final settlement. The neocons in Washington, the Israelis, for them, that is what they want to prevent at all costs. And I have to say, I think they're going to succeed. Just a final question, the GCC countries?

Well, that is a very, now that is in some ways the most interesting question of all, because we see that some GCC countries, Qatar, probably Kuwait to, quietly one suspects the Saudis, and of course, Amman, they are gradually trying to get this whole thing de-escalated. They want normal life to resume. They sense that they were catapulted,

enter a war on a completely forced premise that the United States would prevail quickly over Iran. It turned out to be a disaster for them. They probably will want to see some kind of actual long-term resolution, or at least a resolution long-term enough, so that they can build alternative pipelines to the Red Sea or the Mediterranean or any of one of those things. So they want, again, contrary to the Israelis, they want to see this process move forward, which is why Qatar is now directly involved alongside Pakistan in trying to mediate this process, which has been taking place in Geneva. So they have diverged from Washington and they have diverged also from Israel too. The trouble is the Persian Gulf Arab countries are not the strongest actors. They're still lots of money and resources, but they're not major military force.

And they are very, very locked in to a system of economic and military alliances with the United States. They have pegged, in most cases, their currency to the dollar. It'd be very difficult and, in fact, very, very destabilizing for them to break that link. But if the situation can't fully stabilize in the middle, he said, this thing is playing out, if it looks as if the Israelis are trying to, and the neocons and the hardliners in Washington, are all going to take the United States back into a similar war with Iran to the one that we've just seen, then you can imagine that some of the Persian Gulf states might start to reach. out to Iran directly and see whether they can cut deals with the Iranians for some kind of

joint control of the Persian Gulf, which is what the Chinese and the Russians are urging them to do. Now, I think we're very far from that point. I don't personally think we're ever fully going to get to that point. But at some point, if things really do start to jam up in the way that we say. Outreach by the Persian Gulf states to the Iranians is a possibility, and that might complicate things for the Americans and even more for the Israelis going forward. Yeah, I just don't see how Iran can prevent this war from starting up again.

I mean, they're talking about security guarantees. They're talking about something going to the Security Council and being voted on at the UN. they're not going to get a treaty that the senator or Congress approves. That's never going to happen. So, I mean, there's really no way that Iran can prevent this conflict from restarting. I mean, it's going to be a long, a long, drawn-out conflict, I think. It'll start.

It'll stop. It'll start again. It'll stop again. I just don't see it ending in the next year or two. I absolutely agree. definitively ending, I want to say. I absolutely agree. I think that is by far the most likely outcome.

I think many, many people, far too many people are saying to themselves, you know, this is the war. The war is over. Iran won. The United States was defeated. The Iranians have the U.S. over a barrel because they're able to close the strait of Hormuz, all of those things. I think people are underestimating.

the forces in Washington, especially, I mean, ultimately in Washington, I mean, you know, it's in Washington that the decisions ultimately are made, the forces in Washington that still want this conflict to resume. And the people who make up these forces are now furious that the Iranians were able to fight the Americans and to stop. them in this war. So on top of everything else, on top of, you know, the grievances that are left over from 1979, on top of the sense that Iran is the great adversary that the United States has in the Middle East, there is now the desire which is going to get stronger in the United States amongst these people for revenge over the defeat on the United States that Iran has

just exacted. And these people we're talking about, they will say we have to anyway exact that revenge because our authority in the Middle East and our prestige as a superpower depends on it. I'm absolutely certain that this is in, just as you are, that this is only what we've just seen is only one stage in a very, very long drawn-out drama and that the really big war is still to come. Obviously, I would like to be proved wrong. I would like to believe that the negotiations between Iran and the United States will move. forward. There are some good faith actors in the United States who want to see that happen. There are realists to the United States who say that that is the best outcome for the United States. I agree with those people. But we have to be realistic and understand that this is now the political

agenda of many people in the United States. It goes well beyond, for example, strategies about cutting China off from oil and things like that. It is about reversing an American defeat. And when people are in that kind of mindset, well, it's very difficult to stop a war from happening. Yeah. I agree. We'll see how these negotiations go in Switzerland. And I think we're moving towards a technical stage. I believe now, right? Yes. So we're going to, Vance and all these guys are gone, and now the teams are going to take over. I think that's the process.

All of which is going through before. All of which is. We've been through this before as well. Absolutely. All of which is supposed to happen within 60 days. And we've already got the clock dialing down. Seven of those days are already gone. So it's 53 days.

I don't know anybody who seriously believes that he's going to happen. And again, it's going to. going to be like, you know, the mince process all over again, meeting, after meeting, people negotiating on the same points again and again and again. And in the meantime, certainly the Americans will be building up and preparing for the next round. And if they're wise, the Iranians will do the same. The Iranians will do the same. Absolutely. But, you know, just to wrap up the video, the neocons accomplished something very important in this conflict. very, very important. They got someone in the Trump administration to actually go ahead and attack Iran.

Absolutely. They've been trying to get that going for God knows how many decades, and they finally got it. So they're not going to lose that. No. The taboo has been broken. And that's absolutely correct. So it may be that everything that they were previously saying about how weak Iran is, has a House of Cards that's about collapse, that the Iranian people are only waiting for the signal to rise up and overthrow the Ayatollahs. It may be that everything else that they've been saying has proved to be wrong. It may also be the case that, you know, this latest story about the Kurdish militias is untrue as well. But they've got that principle that the United States can attack Iran now. And they will know, as you rightly said, they will never let go.

And they're now out for revenge as well as everything else, too. And they're not going to let, you know, things like depletions of oil reserves or worries about military buildups, arms production and all of that. That's not going to stop them. Neither will President Trump or neither will JD Vats. None of that's going to stop them either. It would require a fundamental political change. in the United States itself, which may happen one day.

I hope that one day it will happen for that to change. But we are not at that point still, and being realistic about it, perhaps we never will be. All right. Well, in the video there, the durand.com. We're on Rumble, we're on Telegram. Go to Durant shop, pick up some merch. We have a special going on, 26% off. All merch.

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