The Duran Podcast - US-Iran deal within reach, but war still looms

Episode Date: April 11, 2025

US-Iran deal within reach, but war still looms

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is going on with Iran. Are we heading towards a conflict? Are we going to get some sort of a deal? The concern from the Trump White House is that Iran can never get nuclear weapons. Iran has said that they're not looking to get nuclear weapons. You had a mechanism in place during Trump's first term called the JCPOA, which he pulled out. of. And now it looks like he wants a second, different JCPOA to ensure that Iran doesn't get nuclear weapons. If the negotiations that are happening this weekend in Oman, if they break down,

then Trump has threatened action. Very bad things are going to happen to Iran. He said, what are your thoughts on what's going on with Iran? By the way, he had Netanyahu in the White House the other day. And one of the subjects that, talked about was, of course, Iran. And Trump did say that if there is a conflict against Iran, he said that Israel would take a leading role in a war against Iran. Yeah. Well, first of all, to answer your first question, are we heading towards war with Iran or peace with Iran? The answer is, I don't know, because things seem to change from one day to the next and one week to the next. I would have thought that Donald Trump would not want a war with Iran,

but sometimes he talks as if a war with Iran is possible in language which makes it much more likely that it will happen. The problem with Trump is that he has never been able to control his rhetoric. Now, let's talk about this. Firstly, I have always said, and I always believe, that his decision to pull out of the JCPOA during his first term, was a big mistake. It did control effectively Iran's nuclear program. He does have one criticism about the JCPOA, which he's made several times, which I believe is valid. And that was that

it was basically a 10-year plan. It was a 10-year restriction. And yes, it could have been followed up, there could have been further agreements, but in theory, after 10 years it expired, and if you genuinely believed that Iran did have a plan to develop a nuclear bomb, well, after that 10 years, if the JCPOA had been in existence, Iran could have moved forward and developed a nuclear bomb. And of course, it expires, it technically expires. It's still in theory in place, by the way, It expires in the autumn. Now, what Trump has been saying is that he wants an indefinite commitment from Iran, never to develop nuclear weapons.

The Iranians, for their part, say that they have no plans to develop nuclear weapons and have no desire to do so. Logically, that ought to provide a good basis for a compromise. The two sides agree or seem to agree on the main thing, or say they do. Trump doesn't want Iran ever to have nuclear weapons. Iran says it doesn't want ever to have nuclear weapons. So you would have thought that it would be straightforward. It has not been straightforward.

Because, of course, on top of everything else, there's all of these other issues that constantly come in. The United States, and this isn't just Trump, doesn't like the government of Iran, doesn't like the whole system in Iran, would like to see it changed. Well, the Iranians are not going to change their political system because the United States doesn't like it. I think that is the first thing the Americans need to understand. The United States doesn't like aspects of Iran's foreign policy, the fact that the Iranians have been supporting people like the Houth.

Hezbollah in Lebanon and things of that kind. The Iranians are not going to change their entire foreign policy because the United States doesn't like it. The Iranians have ballistic missiles and other weapons programs. Again, the United States may not like that, but the Iranians are not going to bargain that away. Where I think the United States does have legitimate concerns is that the Ukrainians have this enormous stockpile of enriched uranium.

They do have the potential to create a nuclear bomb. They can apparently have enough enriched uranium to create six nuclear bombs. And I can see that the United States would want all of that done away with. So, provided it's all kept to that narrow. issue, a deal is possible. Now, the problem is that not only has the United States brought in all of these other issues, Iran's foreign policies, political system, the fact that it has ballistic missiles, not only have the Israelis also insisted on bringing up all of these other issues, but the United States doesn't seem to know how to deal with Iran and how to negotiate with them. And the

Americans seem to believe that if they threaten the Iranians, that will force the Iranians to make concessions, which it has never done. And the Americans also, well, to give an example, the Americans also don't know how to conduct negotiations as negotiations with Iran. So the Iranians, and the Americans came to this agreement, for example, to meet in Oman. They weren't going to meet directly because the Iranians had ruled out direct meetings with the Americans. But the Omanis were going to act as mediators. They were going to go from one room to the other, as often happens in mediation and passed messages between the Americans and the Iranians. That was an entirely proper thing. It happens often.

it's absolutely clear to me that that was intended to be a secret private meeting. It was not supposed to be disclosed publicly. And the Americans disclosed it. We had Trump announced the fact that the meeting was taking place whilst Netanyahu was in Washington, in Netanyahu's presence. And that has upset the Iranians. If you go to the Iranian media, you can see that they were not pleased that the discussions were disclosed in that way. The other thing that the Americans need to do is that they need to engage with Iran's allies and friends.

Iran, contrary to what you read right across the media in the West, is in a much stronger position today than it was back in 2015. Today it is a member of the BRICS, which it wasn't then. Today it has economic and strategic partnerships with both China and Iran. Russia has just ratified a treaty, a partnership treaty with Iran. If this is handled properly, if those allies of Iran are also brought into the picture, which in the case of the Russians, they have fully indifed, that they would be prepared to do. Yes, a compromise is needed, but the Americans have to stop threatening the Iranians, stop making demands of the Iranians, that the Iranians are never

going to fulfill, and develop a coherent diplomatic strategy and make clear to themselves what objective it is that they are seeking. And Iran, which does not have a nuclear, a uranium stoppile is not in a position to develop nuclear weapons and makes a long-term commitment never to acquire nuclear weapons, which the United States can rely upon, is, in my opinion, within reach. But I have to say, judging from what's happened in recent weeks, in fact, in recent years, I am far from confident that we will get there and the possibility of a war between the United States and Iran over the next few weeks or months with Israel also involved and with the Iranians moving forward and exploding an atomic device sometime over the next course of the next year.

I'm afraid these possibilities are real. Yeah, I believe you said that Iran has agreements with, Russia, with China and Russia, I believe they say, with Iran and Iran. Anyway, just wanted to clarify that. China and Russia, you're talking about the trade agreement that they have. They have a trade agreement with China. They have a much, much more work-through treaty with Russia, which, as I said, the Russians have just ratified. And this contains security and defense provisions, which actually gives Russia enormous leverage over a very much. Iran, they're in a position to supply weapons to Iran, fighter jets, air defense missiles, all of those

sort of things. And at the same time, they can actually provide the United States with guarantees that if an agreement is made with Iran, the Iranians will honor it. A war with Iran. The last thing the United States needs, the last thing, the region needs, the last thing Iran needs, the last thing the region the world needs, you would think that the Trump administration would do everything in its power to cool down the rhetoric, stop with the threats, stop threatening all the time, get to negotiations, figure out a solution with Iran when it comes to the nuclear weapons, utilize Russia, because Russia can definitely play an active role in in this process, this negotiation settlement, if you can get there, and keep things stable

in the region in the Middle East. So you can focus on domestic issues, which you've got a lot of to deal with. I mean, that's the most rational, logical way forward. Why go to war other than other than to fulfill the dreams of these neocons like Lindsay Graham and to act as a distraction from the problems that you have at home. Well, absolutely. This is, there is there one could see the deal that can be done and how that deal would satisfy the core interests of each side. Iran doesn't want or says it doesn't want to acquire nuclear weapons.

I believe them. Acquiring nuclear weapons would be enormously dangerous for Iran. It would pitch Iran into a nuclear arms race with Israel, which you could never win. And it would create permanent threats for Iran of preemptive strikes by Israel and potentially the United States. So the Iranians have an interest in not going there. The Americans have an interest in avoiding a war with Iran, which would simply suck them in to a conflict in the Middle East against Iran, a country of 85 million people, with a huge territory, rugged landscape where they can hide all sorts of things. I mean, it would be a nightmare situation for the United States to get drawn into a conflict with Iran, which would most probably anyway result in Iran eventually acquiring nuclear weapons. So a deal is possible, and the risks if a deal is not done and you choose the option of war instead are disastrous. So I don't see why there shouldn't be a deal, but that is the logical, rational side of me. Unfortunately, we see constantly all of these other problems get in the way and we see the United States now bombing the Houthis.

I have no idea why the United States is currently bombing the Houthis, by the way. Why does the United States think that bombing the Houthis will succeed now when it has failed before, when the Saudis attempted it and it failed before, why the United States is now talking about sending ground troops to fight the Houthis? Because there are those reports out there, which would be piling folly upon folly. What is the logic and sense of all of this? It makes no sense to me, none at all. Why get embroiled in a conflict between Israel and Iran when the best way to protect Israel is to make sure that you do a deal which guarantees that Iran cannot get nuclear weapons and the Russians are there to make sure that that never happens?

Why go down that route of war? And yet, unfortunately, I can't help but think that sometimes we seem to be moving in precisely that direction. And obviously, there are the advocates of conflict with Iran who are very strong in the United States, Lindsay Graham, but I suspect some people within the Trump administration as well. And then there is what you've spoken out against absolutely rightly many times. mantra that you must seek peace through strength, it seduces you into taking belligerent and confrontational positions, which actually work out against your interests. Peace through strength is allure. It's a temptation towards war when what you should be seeking is peace.

The deal with Iran is there on the table. It obviously requires negotiation. I'm not suggesting that negotiation will be straightforward, but it can be done, especially if you expand this negotiation to include third parties, and the key third party has to be Russian. Peace through common sense. How about that? Well, absolutely. How about that? That's a great one.

Yeah, it's a great one. Feel free to take it, Trump administration. Feel free to take it. Can you just address, because the pushback for the Houthis, because I get this all the time as well when I talk about why is the U.S. in this conflict with Houthis? Or what is it? I don't even know. Is it a conflict? I don't know what it is. I really don't because Trump has never explained what it is. But the pushback that you always get is, well, this is about keeping the shipping lanes open, and this is because the Houthis were attacking ships. And so this has to be done.

If we don't do it, who else is going to do it? And we have to keep the shipping lanes open and all of these things. How do you address that argument? Well, first of all, it doesn't succeed in keeping the shipping lanes open. I mean, that's the first thing to say. I mean, bombing the Houthis, who are very well entrenched and embedded in Yemen and who have all kinds of facilities and installations and all that kind of thing, isn't going to prevent them disrupting shipping in the Red Sea if that is what they choose to do. Now, the Houthis, for their part, are connected to the conflict in Gaza, in Israel. So fighting the Husses isn't going to prevent them disrupting shipping in the Red Sea.

The Houthis have previously not disrupted shipping in the Red Sea when there is a ceasefire in Gaza. you could work to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and that might stop the Houthis from disrupting shipping of the Red Sea. But there is another way that you might be able to get the Houthis

to stop disrupting shipping in the Red Sea. That is to negotiate a deal with Iran. I mean, if Iran, which is the primary supporter of the Houthis, has a statement, stable relationship with the United States that it doesn't want to disrupt, then the Iranians might be able to use their leverage over the Hugh Cuthies, which is considerable, to get them

to stop disrupting shipping in the Red Sea. If you threaten the Iranians in the way that you're doing now, if you refuse to deal with them properly, then of course the Iranians have no incentive to use that leverage and will continue to support the Houthis to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea. In the Middle East, all of these conflicts are connected to each other, sorting out the main ones, the one between the United States and Israel and Iran, and the other one, the problem between the Israelis and the Palestinians is the way to sorting out all the others. If you

don't sort out those problems, then you're never going to have a full peace in the Middle East. Now, sorting out the problems between the Israelis and the Palestinians, I'm afraid, is a labor of many years. I don't say that with any pleasure.

Sorting out the conflict between the United States and Iran, and I'm not suggesting, by the way, that the United States after the end of that conflict, suddenly becomes friends with Iran. I don't see any reason why it should. But stabilizing the relationship, entrenching peace, that, it seems to me, is not difficult. It does require some tough negotiation. But all the pieces are there.

All they have to be is moved. And the outline of an essential deal is there on the table. Yeah, but you're right. You sort out the Iran issue, the Iran conflict. And that gives you more time and more resources to focus on Palestine and on Gaza. Absolutely. On the Palestinians, Israel, Gaza. All of that, it gives you so much more time.

Absolutely. Absolutely. And then at that point, of course, the Iranians also have an interest in helping you too. because they, contrary to what many people think, they too have a reason for a stable Middle East. People don't get Iran, I think, well, because as I said, there is this long history of antagonism towards Iran. But the Iranians had a horrible war, which they had to fight in the 1980s. It devastated their society. It is for them the single biggest event that shapes their thinking about the Middle East.

They too have an interest in sorting out the problems in the Middle East so that they can finally rebuild their economy and address the urgent challenges that they face. And the Iranian government is as concerned about solving those problems as any rational government is. And it is a mistake to think that the Iranians are irrational. All right. We will end it there. The durand.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, Bitshut, Telegraph, RockFit, and X. Go to the Duran Shop, pick-up, some merch like what we are wearing in this video update. Use the code Spring 15 to get a 15% discount.

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