The Duran Podcast - US-Russia talks; Realists face off against Neocons

Episode Date: April 15, 2025

US-Russia talks; Realists face off against Neocons

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is going on in Project Ukraine, the diplomacy that is taking place, Wittkov in St. Petersburg, meeting with the Russian president. The continued escalation from the Europeans, the possibility of tourist missiles now going to Ukraine. the Europeans want to escalate. Whitkoff wants a deal. Kellogg and Walt and all of these guys, they want an unconditional ceasefire. They're aligned with the Europeans. So Trump is not taking a side. He's kind of playing it down the middle.

Okay, maybe that's an acceptable policy. Maybe you can make the argument as long as he doesn't. side with Kellogg and then the unconditional ceasefire, then you could kind of escape Project Ukraine, the catastrophe that is Project Ukraine. But the best outcome would be if he followed the Whitkoff track. Obviously, that would be the best outcome. Trump did start to say that this is Biden's war, which is an interesting change of messaging. Perhaps that means something. Of course, He can flip-flop back to Putin's to blame position again in another statement. You don't know.

Anyway, what are your thoughts on what is happening? Well, if you remember last week, I think it was last week, we did a program in which we said that there were clearly two parallel Ukraine policies being followed. One was a sort of neocon-light foreign policy, Waltz Rubio Kellogg, which basically saw this as forcing the Russians to accept a cease-seeing. fire, getting the European troops into Ukraine, ultimately preserving the possibility of one day Ukraine joining NATO, but allowing the Russians in the meantime to control the areas that they control in eastern Ukraine, what was eastern Ukraine.

An totally unrealistic plan, but the kind of plan you would expect people like that to come up with, we said that there was that strand. And then there was the alternative strand, which actually understands that this thing has been a disaster, that it needs to be ended as quickly as possible, that the United States can't continue with this policy, that the Russians are winning and are going to win the war in Ukraine, and that the interest of the United States is having a rapprochement sorted out with Russia. Now, what we saw last week over the course of the last couple of days, in fact, is proof positive. And again, I'm saying this. We're blowing on trumpet a bit here. Proof positive that that theory is absolutely correct. Firstly, we got a report from Reuters saying that there'd been some kind of argument,

maybe even a row between Kellogg and Wickoff. in Trump's presence. Kellogg, sorry, Witt Goff told Trump, look, if you want to end this war quickly, accept Istanbul Plus, it in no sense affects our fundamental interests. We can end this conflict.

We can extricate ourselves from it. The Russians keep the four regions. Ukraine stays outside NATO. That doesn't ultimately have any bearing on our critical security interests, and it de-escalates the situation. Anyway, Kellogg immediately pushed back, said the Ukrainians won't accept that, because if anybody in Washington really cares what the Ukrainians think about these things. But anyway, said Kellogg opposed it.

He said that we still got to go ahead with this idea of getting the Russians to agree a ceasefire, to try to force the Russians into a ceasefire and do those kind of things so that we end up with the kind of scenario that I said, a division of Ukraine into spheres. And he then went ahead very unwisely, in my opinion, and made comments to that effect. And then he repeated them in a post on X, which was intended to rebut an article. in the London Times. But basically, he again conferred what his ideas, his thinking was, which is a ceasefire, a frozen conflict. The Russians remain in control of the four regions, and the Europeans occupy, the French and the British, have areas in Western Ukraine,

which they basically control, proving conclusively that Kellogg is not just on the same wavelength as Macron and Stama, but is working with them. He is he and presumably Wals are telling Macron and Stama, go ahead with your plans for a coalition of the willing, go ahead with your plans to send troops to Ukraine as part of a ceasefire. this is our plan and this is what we're working towards achieving. So you can see, you can understand better why the British and the French are now taking that line because they are getting encouragement from within the administration. They're getting it from Kellogg and no doubt they're getting it to some extent

from Waltz and from I suspect Rubio as well. So there is these two different groups within the administration. The realists, Wittgolf, others, and Reuters said that Wittgoff has his supporters within the administration. And we can guess who some of them are. Vance, maybe, Gabbard, others. and the Walsh, Rubio, Kellogg, Neocon-Lite axis, which still wants to preserve some kind of Ukraine, which will be eventually a part of NATO, and which is basically only looking at a frozen conflict. So we see both of these foreign policies play out last week.

We saw threats that there will be more sanctions against Russia if they don't. capitulate. Reports that Trump sent a letter to Putin basically giving the Russians until the end of this month to accept the ceasefire. Reports that Rubio was, well, Rubio's comments about the fact that Russia has only a few weeks to make a decision whether it wants peace or war, that kind of thing. So we see one side of the administration, one Donald Trump himself, going to some extent with the neocon light group, the hardliners. And then we are Wickoff. And he goes to Russia.

He meets Putin for four and a half hours in St. Petersburg. He has more discussions with Demetriev. He comes back to Washington, apparently. And he says to Trump, look, you know, the Russians are firm on their positions. We don't really want to escalate sanctions. All that will do is that it will solidify even further this alliance between China and Russia, which is causing us so much worry,

and the Russians will be able to absorb the blow. But the Russians are making proposals to us for substantive economic cooperation, which it is in our interests to follow. So you see Wittgoff saying that, And we also see other signs that the administration, parts of the administration, continue to pursue this more realist line. So we have the meeting in Istanbul about the reestablishment of embassies and diplomatic contacts and possibly air links. And that meeting between the Americans and the Russians went very well, apparently.

And we have now comments from Trump himself in which, he finally seems to be distancing himself from the war. Now, we have these two groups. Trump, for the moment, is not making a decision between them. This is not a sustainable policy over the long term for two reasons. Firstly, sometime in the summer, the weapons that Ukraine was supplied by Biden and the money will run out. and Trump needs to make a decision. Does he use his drawdown authority again? Apparently there's three and a half billion dollars still left. Does he eventually go back to Congress to ask for more? Does he, in other words, go completely with Waltz, Rubio and Kellogg? Or does he make the decision

finally to make that break and the conflict, or the, and America's involvement in the conflict, go with Witgolf and the realists and do the deal with the Russians, which will probably not be about Ukraine, the deal basically to reestablish proper relations, civil relations, to sort out all of those problems. So we have, again, divisions within the administration. The latest indications suggest that Trump is leaning more towards Wickgoff's ideas, which, which as I said, I think are the more realistic ones. But he doesn't seem to be able to make a final decision, at least for the moment. And I think realistically, perhaps we shouldn't expect a final decision until the moment comes

when the money and the weapons start to run out in the summer. The other thing he has to worry about, which may force his hand. more quickly is what happens with this Russian offensive, which is now playing out. The Russians have been making, gaining significant ground in various places. This is a topic to discuss in another program, maybe. But for the moment at least, he's still got a few weeks, maybe. He's got a few weeks. We can avoid making a decision, but probably not very long. will basically mean if it will mean either Trump is going to take the blame for the conflict in Ukraine or he's going to get out and not take the blame for the conflict of Ukraine.

Yes. I mean, that's basically what a lot of this comes down to. Yes. How history will remember or judge the Trump presidency when it comes to Ukraine? Either he acts on what he he says said recently just just now, which is that this is Biden's war. It had nothing to do with me. It wouldn't have happened if I had been president, which by the way, it's probably true. I mean, on the last part, Putin has said it's true. And I agree. I don't think there would have been a war if Trump had been reelected in 2020.

But that's another story. That's history now. Either he acts on. that and ends America's involvement in the war, in which case you can say whatever happened in Ukraine is not my fault. I didn't start this war. I didn't want this war. This was nothing to do with me. This is all Biden's fault. It's all the Europeans' fault. They didn't come out, help Ukraine in the way that they said they would do. My concerns are for the United States, ultimately, not for Ukraine. Either he says that, or he becomes Biden too, supports Ukraine, ends up doing what the neocons want him to do, in which case he's trapped. They'll take over his administration. and his foreign policy will lose cohesion and distinctiveness,

and he'll end up another neocom president responsible for another disastrous project. It'll be even worse than that. He's not going to be Biden. It's going to be much worse than that. It's going to be much worse than that because what they're going to do, what the neocons are going to do, and what the Biden administration, guys like Blinking and Sullivan with the media, helping them out is they're going to say we were defeating Russia. When we were in office, we were defeating Russia. And then Trump came along and he lost the war. That's exactly what they're going

to say. We had this thing wrapped up. We had this thing won. Putin was on the back foot. He was about to lose. The economy was a mess. The military was using shovels. We were winning this thing. And then Trump came along and he ruined it all. That's exactly what they're going to say. So, I mean, he's got to, he's got to get out of this. And in the meantime, otherwise, he's going to get screwed. Absolutely. And in the meantime, I mean, he's setting himself up for taking responsibility and being blamed for Ukraine's defeat. And of course, before that defeat happens, he will be under, if he goes with the near cause,

if he goes with Kellogg, he will be under relentless pressure. He is already coming under that pressure to escalate, to ramp up the sanctions against Russia, to resume arms deliveries to Ukraine, to send ever more arms deliveries to Ukraine, to authorize Mertz to supply Ukraine with its tourist missiles, which of course would not be Ukraine receiving tourist missiles from Germany. It would be Germans launching tourist missiles against targets, inside Russia using targeting provided by the United States. So one course means that Trump escapes and the United States escapes.

The other course leads the United States deeper into the conflict, deeper into escalation, drags Trump into escalation in a war he doesn't believe in, which makes it even more senseless, and ultimately ends up with him being blamed for the outcome, because you're absolutely right. Whatever he does, even if he gives the Ukrainians everything they're seeking, more petfut missiles, more tanks or whatever it is, they will still blame him. They will still say, well, you know, if it had just been, we just held on and kept going and built on what Joe Biden and Blinken and Sullivan, those geniuses had set up,

we would still have achieved that victory. But it was all that dithering, all that confusion that Trump created in 2025 that lost us the opportunity to win the war. And thereafter, everything that he did to try to repair the situation was never really enough to make up for all the model and chaos that it caused in the meantime. That's what they're going to say. That's the narrative that is going to be repeated in every editorial, every commentary, in every big newspaper, right across the collective West,

when Ukraine finally goes down. What does a final question? What does Russia do if Germany launches tourist missiles into Russia pre-200? And 14. That's a very good question. Well, I'm not going to try and guess. Maybe Mertz is posturing. Maybe Mertz is BSing.

I just want to say that. Maybe he's being. Maybe he's not. Yes. Maybe he's not. If you looked at his comments actually, they were, it was full of qualifications. Yeah, exactly. That's why, yeah.

It wasn't full of qualifications. But the, yeah. But let's let's let's say that there is continued escalation. eweat escalation. My own sense about it is this. I think the Russians, their air defense system, has now got the measure of all of these missiles, and I suspect the Taurus is no different. And I suspect they'll be able to deal with it. And I think what they will do is they will intensify their offensive. And of course, they have the Arashnik missiles at hand, and they will use them powerfully against targets in Ukraine, probably locating those places where German and British and French

advisors are based in Ukraine. I think given that they're winning the war, I think that there will be obviously huge argument in conflict in Russia, and there will be people who will say that The time has come for Russia to retaliate directly against Germany. But I think the dominant view which will prevail is that since we're winning anyway, we have no reason to take further risks by further escalating. That was what they did with the storm shadows and the attack of missiles when they were launched into Russia. And I was surprised that they acted in that very restrained way then.

But I think we can say in the end that that approach was justified because those missiles really didn't end up doing much damage. All right, we will end the video there. The durand.locos.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, pitch, Telegram, Rockfin, X. Go to the Duran Shop, pick up some merch like what we are wearing in this video update. The link is in the description box down below. Take care.