The Duran Podcast - US war with Iran begins (Live)

Episode Date: February 28, 2026

US war with Iran begins (Live)

All right, we are live with Alexander McCurice in London. Alexander, should I ask you how you're doing? Well, I personally am doing well, but obviously the news is concerning, to put it mildly. Concerning, but predictable, and by the way, predicted. I mean, right at the time of the June war, and I'm sorry to repeat this all the time, but I think we need to always keep this fact in mind. When the June 2025 war ended after 12 days, we said that there would be another attack

and that it was a certainty that it would come. I actually thought it would come before the end of 2025. Well, it's come in the first days, the last day of February. Yeah. We were also the first, if not one of the first two, to recognize this was all about regime change. I mean, we did many, many videos going back almost a year ago saying that this is nothing to do with uranium enrichment or protests.

Anything like that? Always about regime change. It was always about regime change. And Trump has now admitted it. Absolutely. So forwardly, he's saying quite clearly that it is about regime change. And by the way, of course, lots of people around the world are seeing this too. And interesting comment from Medvedev today.

Interesting, not because it is saying anything that we haven't been saying for the last, you know, here or so. But Medvedev is coming out saying, you know, that the negotiations were a cover, that there was no reality to them, that the attack was always planned. We've had reports in the Russian media that the planning for this attack began months ago. It was only the question of the timing of the attack that was in question. It's, again, a further sign. This is a detail, but it's an important detail. And when we need to remember that within the Russian leadership,

There is a strong faction, and Medvedev is clearly signaling that he is one of the people in that faction, who not only doesn't trust Donald Trump, but who doesn't believe that Donald Trump is really serious about any kind of negotiations at all, be there between Russia, between the United States and Iran, or between the United States and Russia. Yeah, I've been rereading that Medvedev post on Ex and on Telegram. sometimes I think he's talking about Russia and not Iran when he's mentioning the negotiations as being just a complete theater. Yes. Is he not only talking about Iran, he's also talking about Russia?

Yes, it is clear. He's been intentionally ambiguous about this, and he sneeringly refers to Trump as the peacemaker. And clearly he doesn't believe that Trump is any sort of peacemaker. He's made that very clear before, and he's making it very clear again. Well, the Russians obviously are looking on and they're drawing their own conclusions. Yes. The Chinese, I'm sure, are looking on and they're drawing their conclusions as well.

Yes, yes. The whole world is drawing their conclusions from all of this. Absolutely. Weeks of months of negotiations. Yes. Once again, we were heading into technical talks, just like last time. Absolutely. Just like the first round, technical talks, they launch a strike.

Technical talks, about to enter technical talks, they launch the strike. Yes. So let's get into it. Directly after the Omani mediators said that there was no need to conduct an attack at this time, that there was progress being made in the negotiations. The difference this time is that the Iranians were clearly much better prepared for it than they were in June. So this is why so far, we're not getting reports

of the scores of Iranian officials being killed or of Peziscan and Harmony being at, you know, killed or at risk, at least not for the moment. Well, that was the goal of the strike, of the first couple of waves of strikes into Iran. There's going to be more strikes into Iran and the United States and Israel, Trump himself.

they've not hit in the fact that this is about decapitating the Iranian government, the military, the administrative government. Yes. They want to get rid of all of it. Yes. So they're going straight after the leadership. Yes. It's that simple.

Yeah. Now, the big question, the two big questions is, can Iran withstand this blow? I mean, they're hitting back at the moment, and they're hitting back exactly as they said, against American bases all across the Middle East. They've even attacked American bases in Saudi Arabia, but in Qatar, in Bahrain, in all of these places. So the Iranians are hitting back. They are much more reactive,

much more aggressively reactive than they were during the June after the June attack when they were clearly taken by surprise. But can they withstand this blow? We don't know how long it will continue for. It cannot continue indefinitely. And I think this is a universal consensus that the United States and Israel lack the death of resources to continue this over many weeks. So can Iran hold together over those weeks? That's one big question. The other big question is if they do, what happens next?

what does the United States do? What does Israel do? And basically what does Trump do? And how does he sell this to the American people who, as you pointed out recently in another program that you did in many places, the American people do not support this operation. They're not interested in another regime change operation in the Middle East. They were assured by Trump during the the 2024 campaign that there would never be anything like that happening. Well, how many missiles does, do you think Iran has? I think that's an interesting question that a lot of people are trying to figure out. That will dictate how long they can, they can go at this. I mean, 10,000, 50,000? What do you think? I mean, well, I have no idea.

And I'm not going to try and guess because I truly, generally, don't know. They use a lot of missiles back in June. There are stories that they've replaced them. Is that possible? There's also the absolutely secondary question of whether they might get missiles from third parties, not maybe Russia and China, but who knows maybe Russia and China.

What about Pakistan? With which Iran has very, very close relations, and which for its own reason, has reasons at this particular time to be hostile to this operation. So this is an unknown question. What we can say, we can't, we don't know how deep Iran's missile resources are, or how effective Israel and America's ability to destroy missiles on the ground can be. But what we can say is that the US itself does not have an unlimited.

stockpile of missiles, either air defense missiles, where we're told that the cupboard is practically bare, and we are seeing that. We're seeing missiles hitting American bases, Iranian missiles hitting American bases. So that suggests that air defense of these bases at the moment is thin, and Iranian missiles have also been targeting, hitting targets in Israel itself. And in terms of offensive missiles, tomahawks and Jassam's missiles, well, the tomahawks, apparently the US is about 6 to 800 tomahawks available close to Iran at the present time. Maybe there are more, maybe there are less, maybe there are ground launches in Israel, though I doubt it, frankly, I've never heard of any Tomahawk ground launches. Six to 800 missiles does not look to me anywhere near enough to inflict significant damage, or at least critical damage on a country the size of Iran.

So it's a question of who has the deeper resources. And about Iranian resources, I simply don't have the answers to that question. And anybody outside Iran who pretends they do, I think it's not telling the truth. Well, I think Trump laid it out in his speech or a statement. I don't know. Is that a live speech or recorded speech or statement? I'm not quite sure about what he put out, this eight-minute declaration of war. Let's call it a declaration of war.

Absolutely. I don't know, but I'm going to make a guess. It was pre-recorded. The word is that he's now going to make another one later, which reinforces the view that this is pre-recorded. Maybe AI. I don't know. Maybe AI. Who knows? Who knows? Exactly.

But Trump laid it all out. Alexander, he basically said, look, we're going to launch a big operation, a massive operation. We're going to take out their Navy. We're going to take out the leadership. We're going to take out their military facilities. It's going to be a big operation. Bombs are going to drop everywhere, he said. And then he called on the people of Iran to rise up.

Yes. Rise up against the government. Yes. he called on the military of Iran to drop their weapons and to rise up against the government. And you will have you will have immunity, I believe he said. That's right. Well, that's, I mean, he's calling, basically, we're going to bomb everything. We're going to try decapitation strikes.

But we want the people, as all this chaos is unfolding, we want the people to rise up and initiate the regime change. I think that is the goal for the next couple of weeks to try and get. to the people to overthrow the government or the military or some forces in Iran to overthrow the government. And we don't know, we've been saying this over many videos, you pointed this out. We don't know what infiltration there is from the United States, Israel, in Iran, perhaps in order to try and get certain elements within the military or the administrative government to try and remove the government. Well, exactly. That is the big unanswered question. And to say it straightforwardly, unless that happens, it's difficult to see how this operation can succeed. So given that the Americans and the Israelis are proceeding with this operation, perhaps they have reasons to think that there are elements within the Iranian military and security system that will act in this way. It must be said that for the moment, and we're at the very beginning of this, there is no sign of that. But, you know, who knows?

We'll just have to wait and see. Tonight is going to be very important. One would assume that tonight would be the moment when, if there is going to be a move by dissident or rebel forces within Iran, they will act, but so far there's no sign of it. Yeah, tonight's going to be critical this weekend. We'll see preemptive attack. Don't confuse it with unprovoked force.

full-scale invasion. Well, I know. You know all the talk about an unprovoked full-scale invasion, nonsense. We saw a lot of restraint in the whole Ukraine conflict, especially in the opening of the Ukraine conflict. What we're seeing now is full-scale, full-scale unprovoked, right? They're going after the leadership. They're going after the military facilities.

They're going to go after the communication. They're going to go after all of it. Something that Russia did not do. I think it needs to be pointed out. Absolutely. It has to be. We had seven long years of negotiations. We had the Minsk Agreement, which was signed by the Ukrainians,

and also signed by the Germans and the French, which was then ratified by a Security Council resolution, which everybody quietly accepts Ukraine never intended to implement, and which the Germans and the French knew Ukraine was not going to implement. So, I mean, the Russians made enormous efforts. to try and achieve a diplomatic resolution of the crisis. And they were negotiating to that end, right up until the very last moment. This time, it's completely different.

There were negotiations. The Amani mediators say that they were making progress. The Iranians had made proposals, which in any rational worlds could have been taken forward. They were making proposals about nuclear enrichment, which, as I said, seemed to me, seem to most people, I think, around the world, entirely sensible proposals. But the United States and Israel were not interested because their objective was and has always been regime change.

Matthew says how bad is this going to get global conflict? Well, it could get very bad. This is the problem because, of course, let's go back and discuss what will happen. if in a week, in two weeks time, in a month, Iran is still standing and still hitting targets in Israel and in the United States, across the middle, it's not the United States. What then do Israel and the United States do? What do the Iranians want in return in order to stop? There is no clear answers to this. these questions. What are the long-term Iranian objectives? Do they want the United States to pull

all its forces out of the Middle East? That's an incredible demand. But how do the Israelis respond if their country comes under attack, if their air defense system has basically broken down, and if there is no regime change in Iran. This is an incredibly dangerous situation. Let's do the reverse, Alexander. What if the United States takes out the Ayatollah, the religious? We're not talking Maduro here. No.

We're talking the supreme leader, religious, religious Shia leader. What happens then? Well, indeed quite so. What happens if Iran's government collapses? the government that would replace it, whatever government did replace it, it would lack legitimacy because it would have been imposed by external forces by the United States and Israel. They might try and package it as an act of liberation.

It might be something that some people in Iran would accept, but many, many others would not, especially given, as you rightly say, that this is a religiously. placed state. So we could very easily see incredible chaos, incredible violence, massive instability in Iran and in the regions that make up Iran, with every possibility that this could spill over into the broader Middle East, there is no reason to think, for example, that it might not start to affect the Arab states of the Gulf, all of which have significant Shia. communities and in the case of Bahrain, the share of the majority. What was the population of Syria when they tried to do the regime change Obama?

And then we had a huge migrant crisis into Europe. What was the part? Does anyone in the chat know the population of Syria back then? Well, I, because in Iran, we're talking about 92 million people. 92 million people. I think in Syria was what, it used to be 25 million, but I think it was more than that, a lot more than that by then. But agreed. I mean, the migration flows, the refugee flows, if you prefer to use that word, are potentially going to be enormous. And where will they go? Sorry?

25 million, sorry, says Harry. Well, there you go. Where will they go? Well, if there's any one place they will go. Obviously, they will go to Europe. Yeah. All right. Frank Merce says I was kicked out of 109 gyms, but it wasn't my fault. Not quite true. Thank you. Anico says, I'm out of words. I feel sorry for my friends as America destroys their country on top of Pakistan and Afghanistan being at war. Lindsay Graham won. What do you make of the timing? What do you make of the timing?

Go ahead. I mean, Lindsay Graham is clearly the president. The neocons always win. Neocons always get their way. We've been saying this for how long now. Every video, it seems we always end our videos now with one sentence. Neocons always get their way. Absolutely.

And they're never held accountable for air. anything. They get promoted. Absolutely. I have never known the neocons to fail to get a war that they have demanded. Sooner or later, it always comes. Yeah. I was going to ask you, what do you make of the timing of the Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict? This is very interesting and very extraordinary. The Pakistan played a massive role over decades in establishing the government, the Taliban government, in Afghanistan. I mean, the Taliban government was, to a great extent,

Pakistan's creation. And we've seen that instead of the Taliban becoming, as the Pakistanis expected, a satellite of Pakistan, the Taliban have instead

moved towards hostility and antagonism to Pakistan. Now, is this connected to these events in Iran. I doubt it actually. And I say why. I mean, the Taliban itself is apparently deeply divided between a religious leadership in Kandahar, which is very hard line and a less hardline leadership who are the people who run the ministries in Kabul. I can't see either of to groups working on behalf of the Americans in this conflict, because Pakistan, to repeat again,

has tended to be fairly closely aligned with Iran. Pakistan, however, has also had fairly good relations with the United States. My sense is, for the moment, that the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict is separate from this one. I may be wrong. Who's to say, you know, the Americans do get involved in all sorts of things. They may have created this conflict in order to cause a distraction for Pakistan. But bear on mind, the Taliban are not in particularly good terms with Iran. Pakistan is, it's complicated. We mustn't assume that the Americans are able to orchestrate every conflict in every place in the world. Right. Haruko says, what a shame, insane, crazy. Is it forgivable? No, never.

No, I agree with that, of course. It isn't. Fly of the Arrow says they also attack the Ayatollah of Rock and Rolla. Halman says, as Putin said, the worst thing that can happen to a country is losing of sovereignty, so America has none of it and is acting as avatar for the Israel. You know, more and more people in America are going to say this, because on whose behalf Is this war being fought? I mean, is Iran attacking the United States? No, not at the present time.

Iran is negotiating with the United States. It doesn't take very long to see which country feels itself in genuine conflict with Iran. In fact, Netanyahu has been talking about Iran being a threat to Israel for decades, even though up to now, Iran has been. has taken no overt action, has taken no actual proactive action to attack Israel. It has responded when it itself has been attacked, but it has never itself proactively attacked Israel up to this time. The hockey goalie says, can you see China, Russia providing direct support even in a defensive capacity with planes, etc. Can't see how they can afford them to fail?

I think they will do everything they can short of those things to prevent that, prevent. Iran falling. But this is the key thing to understand. It's not the military attack on Iran. That is the danger. Iran is a big country, 90 million people, an enormous territory, a big industrial base. If this is simply a conflict of arms, then Iran should be able to see it off. The question is, how in terms, stable is Iran. And that's the big uncertainty and the Chinese and the Russians can only do so much there. Reapers, Axel says multiple children were killed in a school in southern Iran. GoGBO Farms says at some point we have to be willing to call out Jewish power in the West. I'm tired of hearing about anti-Semitism while my country is a proxy for Israel. long live Iran.

And more and more people are going to be saying these things. Kempshek says Israel and America heavily rely on the Air Force to attack Iran. So Iran should focus on taking out the Air Force tanker fleet, take out their logistic capability. Many people are saying this. Look, the one thing I'm not going to do is give the Iranians advice on how to conduct military operations. I mean, that's absolutely not my job.

And besides, I'm not the person to discuss those things. as I've said many, many times, military operations is not my thing. Nico says, as I said, both Putin and Medev speak the same. Recently, they know that if Iran falls, Russia is next, but President Putin needs to officially cut ties. I think that this is, I think that people should be, should, I think that is, by the way, the idea that if Iran falls, Russia falls, I mean, I think that is simply wrong.

And I think people need to understand that. These are two completely different countries. The Russian economy operates in a completely different scale and technological level from Iran's. Russian society is far more homogeneous and far more united. And Russia is the world's leading nuclear power. It is wrong to say that if Iran falls, Russia falls. What is true is if Iran falls, Russia and China have a very big headache. because there's going to be lots of trouble and chaos in Central Asia,

and it will certainly affect the development of Greeks. That's the point. Nico says, American supports this war. The Maga Base believes Trump on everything. These people along with the British are arrogant. They have suffered. They haven't suffered at all. Well, the opinion polls tell a completely different story.

Most Americans do not support this war and are hostile to it, and that the Maga base is splitting. Iranian kiddo says Pakistani military has close ties to Western security services. They would never help Iran militarily. Some people even claim that Pakistan would arm Turkey with nukes if time comes, which is laughable. Well, I agree with that, actually. And Pakistan has had and does continue to have very close ties with the United States and with other Western countries.

It is, however, its own agent. It's important to remember that even as the Americans were fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Pakistani intelligence agencies were supporting the Taliban. So it would be a mistake to say that Pakistan is a united polity or is a complete agent of the U.S. I have lots of contacts in Pakistan, inevitable if you live in London. and it's a very, very complex society indeed. Hello, random person says,

is this not going to deplete Tomahawk stockpiles? Absolutely, and I've been reading about this in the Financial Times, and military officials are saying to be worried about it, but that hasn't stopped. Christina says, how do you justify your actions to a nation that doesn't support it? Well, indeed, quite. Fuzzy Ball says, I bet America wishes they had a lot of inventories that they gave to the Hobbit of Kiev. Oh, absolutely. completely true. But there it is. I mean, I'm sure there are some people in the U.S. and in the

Pentagon who regret it. But of course, others still feel that he should be given even more. Brian Tomak says, Tucker Carlson, in a program mentioned that Israel may pivot to replacing the U.S. with India as a new benefactor. What are your thoughts? Impossible. India doesn't have anything remotely like the kind of capabilities that the U.S. does. and there is a very, very strong pro-Palestinian current feeling in India anyway. Robin Ross, thank you for that, super chat. Fahad says, Envidia, AI will become the Antichrist, check the meaning behind their logo. May Allah guide us.

He is the creator, the sustainer. Thank you for that. Thanks. Mr. Black says Iran has Chinese anti-ship missiles. When a carrier is burning and 5,000 sailors are impacted, then Israel and Graham, and the secular Zionists and Christian right will get their dogma war. Well, Iran does not yet have Chinese anti-ship missiles, at least not the very powerful supersonic ones.

They've just done a deal to buy them. And we talk about Iran, and I've discussed this many, many times. The Iranians have been unbelievably slow in getting themselves organized and preparing for this. they should have, they should have gone back at least five years ago, arguably longer still, maybe when the United States first began to impose, when the United States first walked away from the JCPOA, they should have started to get themselves organized and ready for this kind of attack. Instead, they did something which I still personally think was an act of complete folly and an obvious mistake,

which is to enrich uranium up to 60% level without taking the step, the obvious logical step beyond that. Now, what was the point of that? As we see, it didn't give Iran any leverage in negotiations. It simply set up the situation that we're seeing now. Hermitage Pepper says, those of us who remember the lead up to Iraq 2.0 will not accept any justification for this, even false flags will be called out.

I agree. Ed Byrne says, I was 10 beers in and ready for bed when I heard about the attack. Thanks for going live. Otherwise, I was having to go to bed with my snoring wife. Thanks, guys.

I owe you one. Thank you for that. Klaus says, what about Shia Muslims in Iraq? Will they react? I'll tell you what I think here. They will. But the real relevance of this

is that it will grow over time. In other words, the real point where it will start to impact big is if this war is still going on in a month or two months time, you're going to start to see more and more sheer communities across the Middle East, starting to organize and starting to carry up their own attacks against American bases. So this is a slow fuse thing, but that fuse has now been lit. To repeat again, it depends critically on what happens now inside Iran. Imra Kalman says, good day.

Alexander, what is your opinion on Rupert Lowe and Amelia? I'm not sure who Amelia is, but as to Rupert Lowe, I get to say this. I think over the course of this Parliament in Britain, in other words, until the next general election, he's going to make very limited impact. At the moment, and we saw this in the Gorton and Denton by-election, Reform amongst working class English voters is where it is at. In Gorton and Denton, Reform won a runaway victory amongst these voters.

And I expect it will continue that way. If Barrage fails at the next election or if he succeeds and if Raje government is and it turns out to be simply a continuation of Conservative Party, Mark 2. Then I can imagine Rupert Lowe and his movement starting to gain traction. Drupi in 1990 says, how likely will this conflict turn nuclear if the U.S. Israel cannot bring Iran to heal within days or weeks? Well, that is a very real possibility and a very, very worrying one. I mean, there are no stories circulating. I don't know how true they are. that during the 12-day war, Israel did in fact consider using nuclear weapons.

I assume and hope that the United States has a kill switch over anything of this kind on Israel's part, though I don't know this for a fact. Given the rhetoric, given the stakes, one cannot rule out these possibilities, terrifying though they are. Iranian Kido says we have historical and cultural ties with Pakistan. Interestingly, the Pakistani anthem is a poem in Persian, and I understand the majority of it. Very interesting. Thank you for that. So Goodman says Bill Clinton had something on today, didn't he? He had his deposition yesterday.

Luckily back. Yeah, thank you for that super sticker. Patrick says, you just have to remember that White House ballrooms don't build themselves. Nico says, I'm going back to. Russia, but those Flamingo strikes yesterday were close. They need to find the production. This is getting out of control everywhere. Well, the production is probably in Denmark. But as I said, and I would again say this. I said this about many missiles. The Russians will get on top of this. The flamingo is not as big and as difficult to target, not remotely as the storm shadows and

the attackers were. Within a few weeks, the Russians will have a complete handle on this. They always do. It also says, will the migrants use Putin's secret Hamas tunnels to get to Europe, evil clown world? Of course they will. That's an actual story that appeared in the Daily Telegraph, by the way. It sounds bizarre, but it was there. Threaddigger says,

A good early morning from Raleigh, gents. My brother was day plus one in the Iraq war and talk about the negative things he saw. This morning news is not what I voted for. I'm now praying for reconciliation. Tim, thank you for that. And thank you also for your wonderful contributions to my live streams on locals, just to say. Ancient Britain Blue Warrior says, hi, Alexander. Do you think this will trigger World War III?

Well, I hope not, and I don't think so. I think that we will eventually find a way out, because I don't think it is anybody's interests to have World War III. But this is an extraordinarily dangerous military operation carried out without very much planning and very much thought. I'll tell you something, by the way. I wonder whether, again, Trump has been promised things by Netanyahu that Netanyahu can't deliver on. Back in June, Netanyahu appears to have told Trump that Israel could carry out a successful decapitation strike against Iran.

All that was needed was for the Americans to lull the Iranians into a forced sense of security by conducting negotiations with them. Iran survived the decapitation strike and the United States found itself in a 12-day war, which it wasn't ready for. I wonder, I wonder whether Netanyahu hasn't told Trump. Don't worry if we attack Iran, the people are all ready to rise up.

We have all these contacts and friends in the Iranian military. They're prepared to move at the, you know, the flick of a switch, It will be easy. And again, it may be that Netanyahu is over-promising, in which case I wonder what Trump will do. Fad says check in video logo. AI equals to Hebrew Messiah anointed. Bin Lidd says Yemen and different military militias will go to war too.

Yeah. Fuzzy ball says Alexander asks who this war. war is for it's being fought for Trump's ego and his rich donors. Trump always overestimates his own military leadership. Quite true. Copa now, thank you for that super sticker. Iranian kiddo says the whole thing about the presence of so-called separatists in Iran is made up. There are about 8 million Kurds in Iran and a country of 93 million. We just don't have as many as Iraq and Turkey. I think you are absolutely right about this. This is what many people have been telling me. again I wonder I mean there's been a lot of talk about this Kurdish militia that is supposedly being built up

I wonder whether this is another fairy tale that has been fed to Trump by all sorts of people who are promising the promising him that all of this will happen but we'll see Lorenzo says it seems US air bases have been hit hard across the whole gulf and that 25 Iranian missiles have hit Israel these are not good signs for the genocidal maniacs that have attacked Iran? If this information is true, and remember we are going to get a huge amount of misinformation and counter information and disinformation over the first couple of hours, but if this is true, then I agree it is not a good sign, but it will take several days, I think, before we have a

clear idea of where this is going. And again, a critical moment is tonight. if there is no movement of, if there aren't big protests and movements of military units in Tehran, you know, seizing power or anything of that kind, then as I said, this begins to look more and more difficult. Monkey Yu Yu Fanis says if the Chinese and the Russians later on fall, what is the point of bricks? Well, this is, this is the key thing to understand. It's not going to cause China and Russia to fall. It is not going to affect the Chinese and Russian strategic partnership. It's going to create chaos in Central Asia.

And it is going to be a very, very significant blow for the bricks. It is not going to be a terminal blow for the bricks. Bricks existed before Iran joined. And Iran only joined the bricks recently in 2024. And Iran has, if I get to say it again, been slow to take the advantage of its joining of the bricks. But it will undoubtedly be a big blow for the bricks. Last right, Zero says, still unironically waiting for my Duran just saying shirt,

just saying. Fuzzy Balls says, the word I am hearing is that Iran will strike all of America's allies in the Middle East to form aggression, the support for Tel Aviv's aggression. They've actually said that. That is what the Iranians are saying. Whether they have the capability to do that is something we will have to wait and see. At the moment, they are on definitely striking bases in Qatar, Kuwait, I believe, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. And I haven't yet heard about anything in Jordan, but they're certainly attacking Israel too.

I think I heard Jordan as well. I don't know. They're attacking everywhere, it seems. Log 66 says the reason Iran did not get China, Russia help earlier is. that pro-Western wealthy elites in Iran are overrepresented post-assassassination of Raeisi. I think there may be some truth to there. But again, I'm not going to claim that I have a huge amount of insight knowledge over a very complicated political system in Iran or the various different currents of feeling there.

I've already pointed out in many places at very great length, why Iran has good historic reasons to be suspicious of Russia. And Iranian kid, I think it was, who reminded me that as well as all of the other reasons that stretched back all the way back to the 18th century, the Soviet Union provided Iraq, Saddam Hussein's Iraq, very great assistance in its war against Iran in the 1980s. And that is a living memory for many of the people in Iran, including the people who are leading Iran now. Jeffrey Brown says, may the Lord bless us and keep us and lift us and lift up his face

to smile upon us and grant us peace. We need his grace more than ever. Veritano says, all popping off Iran responded much quicker this time and fulfilled his promise to strike back across the region. Yes, yes. Okay. And all of this is done during Ramadan and Basque.

Absolutely. Absolutely. Again, I'm sure they have not thought about this in Washington. The level of political planning in Washington is terrible. They're brilliant, you know, the covert intelligence, dipping off of people, the special forces, all that kind of thing. At that they are superb, but at the wider, bigger, holistic picture, There are so many blind sports that you can almost say that they're blind. Ivan says, good morning, fellas. Thank you for the news.

Thank you. Light of Arro says he stole my comment. Caroline, thank you for that super chat. Zareel says, happy Saturday, everyone. Remember to stay happy. Okay. Kemp Sheikh says the midterm elections is in eight months. And if this war lasts that long, it already looks bad for Republicans.

it will be even worse with dead American soldiers. Absolutely. I mean, an eight-month war, I mean, it's a horrifying idea. Vance actually went out of his way to say, to promise that nothing like that would happen. Does he know something that we don't? Does he know that there are military units in Iran ready to act against the Ayatollah? I mean, I don't know. Maybe he does. Iran and Quito says Iran makes its own missiles, short range,

anti-ship and long range, starting from modest beginnings. in the 80s, no country has helped Iran militarily in any meaningful way since 1979, except North Korea. Absolutely true. Completely true. And I get to say something else, Iranian, Kedah. My own feeling about that is that it was a trap. Because Iran was so successful in creating its own military industrial capability, which was a very impressive achievement for a country like Iran, I think that led the Iranians to think that they didn't need the support of others even when it was offered. And I think that was a mistake. Isakai Express says, what we don't see is the battle in the orbit.

Whoever has a good telescope will see satellites approaching each other, inspecting them. Well, I'm sure that's all good. All that is going on. But, yeah. Dumbinda says, what are your thoughts on Modi visiting Israel in the midst of Israel looking to attack? Iran. I think Modi is going to be very, very embarrassed about that, actually. A very unwise thing to do. There is a very, very strong pro-Israel current within Indian politics. Bear in mind that India is in conflict with Pakistan. There's all the religious differences between Hindus and Muslims.

Modi himself comes from within the Hindu, Hindva tradition. It's not completely surprised. But I think it is a mistake. Thank you the real Schneebs for gifting one subscription on Rumble. Thank you for that. And Gordon, Gordon, thank you for that super chat. Eric Waite says Iran could strike US carriers with the fastest missiles if they want to stop them. I don't want to speculate about these possibilities. I think that if we have a situation where a US Navy carrier is attacked in that kind of way,

well, frankly, that would be almost as an immense event, as an eight-month war would be. Yeah, Mary Lowe, thank you for that super sticker. Nikos says Iranians love Greece, Alexander, they love us. They are such good people, such a great nation. I'm sad about my friends. What will happen if Iran breaks? I completely agree. Iranians love us and we love them.

And our history actually brought us closer together and in ways they're. that we appreciate each other and understand each other much better than Europeans, other Europeans understand Iran. That's my own sense anyway. What will happen if Iran falls, it will be a major crisis for the BRICS. Of that there is no doubt. I think it is a crisis that the bricks would survive, but because remember that the core of the BRICS is the Chinese-Russian strategic partnership. And that would probably strengthen, just a second, but certainly it would be a major blow, and that must be part of the purpose behind this attack. Gordon Wilkinson says, how will, if at all this conflict affect oil prices? Depends how long it continues. And if it continues eight months

or anything like that, then we can easily be looking at $100 plus, $150 plus a battle, which will sink Donald Trump, without any doubt. Sovereign thinker says, assume Israel becomes the regional power and controls Mina. How does this benefit the U.S.? Israel will control oil, natural gas, and dominate resource economy. Please advise.

Well, I wish I could answer your question because I'm asking myself the same question. I mean, that's all I would say. Wayfarer says, how likely is it that Europe will be thrown into a war with Russia? I'm not looking forward to get press ganged. I don't think there is any serious possibility.

of this. I've been looking at the state of all the various militaries in Europe, and they're getting weaker and weaker day by day. There's a lot of brave talk about Germany re-arming. There's been no German rearmament. It's just that Mounts is spending an awful lot of money, but he's not getting anything back in return. And the US, upon whom this would all depend, is now tied down in a war with Iran. So for the moment, I just don't think this is a threat at all. Osben K says the world needs regime change in the West. Yes. Azmic wave rider says Iran has watched North Korea and Libya.

Giving up arms means Libya. I don't agree with Iran's local politics. Then he is dragging Trump into war. I agree with this. I'm going to say something else. I mean, one of the great problems, one of the great divisions in Iran, and it is there, by the way, Again, I read the Iranian media closely when I can.

It's impossible to access in London today, by the way. There's a complete blackout, and even with VPNs, you can't. But anyway, but I read the Iranian media closely, and it's quite clear to me that there are many, many people within the Iranian political and military leadership who are very, very frustrated by Hamané's policies of taking Iran, the way up to 60% enrichment, but categorically refusing to go a step beyond. They say, look at North Korea, look at where North Korea is now. Why did we not do the same? And that is the thing that people in Israel and the United States, if Iran gets through this, need to worry about.

Harmon is now what, 86, 87? He's said to be in precarious health. He might not be around for very long. Whoever replaces him, assuming that we have the same government in Iran at the end of this crisis, that person might take a very different view to all of this than the one that Harmoni did. Sparky says, was the idea for the US to attack Iran first in the hope Iran would retaliate but also attack Israel, then Israel claims to be an innocent victim? Yes. I think there was a lot of that going on, but clearly it hasn't worked because everything has got jumbled together. I think that there were those ideas. We talked about them in the program we did yesterday, which you can find on with Iran. But I think that somebody did the polling, and they probably realized that even if it was done that way, Israel attacks Iran, Iran retaliates, the United States steps in. It was so obviously transparent that it wasn't moving the dial.

on the polling figures. So given that they were determined to attack Iran, they said, okay, let's not bother. Let's just go ahead and attack Iran. As Padavel says, some have dubbed the U.S. Operation Epstein Fury instead of Epic Fury. We can't let the Epstein class win this war. Oh, quite true.

I'm sure there's a lot in that, yeah. Eroded Emerald. Thank you for that. Sheep Shricks, top podcast. Thank you for that. Thank you for that. Ed Barnes says heartfelt gratitude to you both for providing genuinely impartial intellectual commentary on geopolitics every day. Thank you for educating me and us

and bless you both. Thank you for that. Thank you very much. And Nico says, oh, and congratulations, Donald Trump. You surpass Biden as the second worst president of the U.S. I feel six to my stomach for even supporting him. Many people will be saying that. Vincent says, what is or will be Pakistan's response to all of this? Thank you. Well, I think initially they too will be waiting to see what happens in Iran. They don't, We weren't wanting to Iran's help only for Iran to collapse. So again, the longer this goes on, the more difficult for the US and Israel it gets, and the stronger the support for Iran is going to be. And to repeat, where the Russians and the Chinese are concerned,

if we apply very brutal strategic calculus, which unfortunately we must, this is the reality of the modern world. If Iran is able to keep fighting, the Russians and the Chinese are going to use that to gain leverage over the Americans, just as they did with the Vietnam War. Kapano now says, how long would the conflict have to last for Congress to require congressional authorization and how likely is it to grant it with midterms looming? Congress? What is that? Has Trump even consulted it?

Shanta Bell, thank you for that. I wrote it Emerald. Elsa says, hello and thank you. Ayush Ban says, how do secretary, like Freemasons influence wars? Well, I don't know to what extent they do because of course, for one thing, they're all very secret.

What I would say is this. I worked in the High Court in London. There was a significant Masonic group within the British judiciary. One should never deny that. What exactly it was up to? I'm not really in a position to say because, of course, they never told me. Ed Byrne gifted the Duran five memberships. Thank you for that, Ed. Lorenzo says, not accepting the Russians help for modern air defenses in 2023 was a complete mistake on Iran's part. They would have an even stronger position now. They would have a much stronger position now, but they didn't. And we can dwell on this. We can talk all about

this but of course we are where we are and the test now to repeat for iran is not military it's it's it's it's it's it comes down to a question of its domestic stability now can i just say none of this should mean that i think that the you know the iranian system as it currently is constituted is a wonderful or perfect system i think you You can make many, many criticisms of it. But this is a question for Iranians to decide, not outsiders. Klaus says, remember that it is not a failure if the regime does not fall. Iran will be weakened and the US will just try again in a few years.

No, I don't think so. I think that what is more likely to happen if the regime survives is that it will gain more legitimacy and it will buy more time to at last start getting this further help. from the big states that it is now finally seeking. This is, in my opinion, the moment of Iran's greatest weakness. If it's able to get through, it will start to get stronger. And also, it might start to get serious economic assistance, which could begin to stabilize its economy.

Patrick says, you've seen our insane politicians here in Denmark talking about getting nukes. guys, show has been watching you since the Ukraine war started. Thank you very much, Patrick. And can I just say I have seen him. It just astonishes me that Denmark, which I always used to remember as a rational country, should be talking in this, in this crazy way. Iranian kiddo says Iran provides Russia with access to shallow warm waters of the Caspian Sea, which Russia has historically struggled to reach. completely true. Hayden says, what do you know about the Iranian ballistic missile program?

Do they mostly use mobile launch platforms or do they have silos in the mountains? I don't know. And again, I mean, they certainly do use mobile launch platforms and apparently the significant numbers of them and the Israelis came after them heavily in June last year. But allegedly the Iranians have rebuilt them. Who knows whether they also use silos is something I simply do not know. Again, I don't have that kind of information. Presumably people in Washington and Israel do, but I don't. Stephen Ross says Iran should develop nuclear weapons. These types of attacks would not have happened as V.

You said, the U.S. is geographically untouchable. That's why the U.S. keeps bullying weaker nations apart from Russia. Well, can I just say something? There are lots of people in Iran within the leadership who talk in this. way. I actually saw a television interview that a former advisor of Hamanais, a very top advisor of Harmonais, gave to Iranian television. He said the only reason we have not actually taken that further step is because Harmine is telling us not to. Isika Express says what impact will have a sunken American carrier?

It will change the whole world. If anything like that were to happen, we would be living in a completely different place. Jithas Jusoth says how far we've come from Trump calling out Jeb Bush and the Iraq war? Was it deception or was Trump or has Trump lost himself? I think probably the latter, but then I'm being kind to Trump. A WIO, Paul says, I heard the U.S. Fifth Fleet was destroyed. Can you confirm? I know I can't confirm. I can't confirm. I can't confirm. I can't confirm. S. Padoville says Iran is attacking the carrier group supply note in Bahrain instead of carriers themselves, very smart.

Well, maybe. I mean, again, I'm not going to discuss the military things because I can't. Chunky monkey says if King Pyrrhus of Everest were alive today, he would warn Trump that another military victory for America might rule. in America. You have a great knowledge of Greek history. Iranian, Kido, says Iran provides Russia with direct access to warm southern waters in the Indian Ocean, which Russia has historically struggled to reach. Completely true as well. Jeff Al says the U.S. President does not have the authority to declare war. True. Zavoid XID says, what are the odds for Iran to close the Hormuz Strait? If this goes on for much longer, I have no doubt. they will they rehearsed it just a short time ago so i think they will do it uh fragment fragments of

uss are says alexander amelia is a purple-haired girl in the game ordered by the uk government to promote immigration with amelia as the bad influence and anti-immigration activist the game backfired she is now an internet sensation well there you go you'll ban learn something new all the time thank you for that leslie paul says ruslan beloff is reporting that ukraine's elite forces have been crushed second unit. Sirsky has burned through in a week, thousands of troops missing. Yeah, this is possibly true again. I mean, that goes beyond the information that I have. But, well, Ukraine is a different topic from the one we're talking about today. ML says Iran is unwinnable, just saying.

Well, many people in military terms would agree. Chichitsu Silla says, slightly late to the show, if the West sustains huge losses, will Trump use nukes? happens then. Well, I mean, if we get into that kind of world, then we are in a completely different, we're in a state where, you know, I just don't want to even try to imagine the consequences. Fahed says Alex Christopher Alexander Merkir. Thank you for that. Warth 3504 says, thank you for reporting. Keep up the great work, please. Thank you. Iranian Quito says Russia and Iran are in the final phase of completing the Rasht Astra Railway, the missing link switch, will directly connect Russia to the Indian Ocean, projected to be completed by 2030.

It is extraordinary that there were no proper rail and road and transport links between Russia and Iran until now. And this is as much the Russia's blame, in fact, more Russia's blame to blame than the Iran, because the Russians also, until very recently, were focused on developing road and transport links to Europe. And I mean, so many opportunities in this relationship have been missed. It's very late now. Let's hope that there is time to see these things through. Jeffrey Brown says when I was in the army, there was a saying, every plan works perfectly right up until it doesn't.

I'll save my faith for God, not the Pentagon. Well, absolutely. I think it was Malta, the chief of the general staff of the Prussian army, who said that every plan fails the moment it comes into contact with the enemy. So there you go. Joshua says what's the key win condition for Iran, in your opinion? A time. I mean, they have to keep this thing going for a long time.

If they achieve that, if they remain together and stable, then they win. Caraville Spices, thank you for that. Super Chat. GBO Farm says, what is reforms position on Israel and Iran? Reform is passionately in support of Israel. Matt, what's his name, Goodwin, who was their candidate, Edenton and Gorton, is an outspoken supporter of Israel. Dibé Man says, thanks for keeping me sane.

Thank you for that. Last right zero, new member of Durant Community. User 42 says, I'll give you. you free-of-charge VPN exits in Moscow and Shenjin, from which you can get to anywhere, including Iran, ping me. Good. Thank you. Thank you. Master Groh says, thank you both for your continual global analysis. I wish my fellow Americans would consider that we don't have unlimited stockpals of weapons. China's meanwhile waiting without depleting theirs. Well, this is absolutely true, but you see, this is neocons. The neocons never look at things like militants.

logistics. They never worry about those kind of things. They just take the unlimited power of the United States for granted. Photon 812 says, what will be the regional consequences in the case of a sub-par-performance defeat of the U.S. part? Won't it make the U.S. unreliable as a guarant tour? It would severely damage what is left of U.S. prestige in the Middle East, which has only very gradually being restored after the debacle in Iraq. Daniel says, will the peacemaker survive this politically? Well, if it goes wrong, no. I mean, if this goes badly wrong, there are now obvious grounds for impeachment as well,

and the Democrats are already looking for grants to impeach him. Aurea says, why is this word necessary? Just asking the stupid question, on a lighter note, your merch is amazing and comfortable. everything. You're the best. Thank you for that. Why is this word necessary? Well, it isn't. It's completely unnecessary. Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons. It said it doesn't want nuclear weapons. It has only used ballistic missiles in self-defense. It is a completely unnecessary war and entirely unprovoked one. Dred to think says, what does the destruction of Trump's political

capital mean for the populist right globally? It will it will inflate very real and profound damage. Seville Silver says it's been a very lackluster opening to this war. Even if the Supreme Leader was hit, I wonder if Iran also hit something vital, causing doubt in ranks. Well, we must be very, very careful before leap into these assumptions. Wait until tonight. If tomorrow morning, things are stable in Iran, then I will start to agree with you. Yeah. Of course, a boy says, can you see circumstances leading to a ground war if this conflict drags on?

No, I cannot, actually. I think there's been some talk of it, but I think the reaction in the US would be so strong that I think that really would be the end of the administration. And I think that we would be looking at Vietnam, 1968, Chicago conventions, that kind of thing, that kind of situation in the United States, but at warp speed. Matthew says, is it the end of bricks if Iran falls? No, I've already said it wouldn't be the end of bricks, but it would be a very big blow to the bricks. Log 66 says 36 girls killed in elementary school in Minab, Iran, bodies still under rubble.

Yes, I've heard the story. I hope it's not true. I fear it may be. Ed Burns says, Alexei, did you ever find the disappearing woman in the Bush? Funniest video I've ever seen. No, I did not. I never did find her. Thank you for that. Arim, thank you for that super sticker. Doberman McLeod says, I've been doing extensive AI modeling, and the first week will be a debacle for the U.S. and Israel. Expect YouTube to ban alt-mediate. Well, who knows? We'll see. I hope not. Jungle Jin says MBSs, his idiot comments make KSA a clown show. Well, I haven't caught up with his comments.

Iran and Kira said, Alexander, how can you be sure that Iran refused to procure the S-400 defense system? It makes no sense for Iran to do that. I well remember the S-300 saga in the 2010's deliveries kept getting delayed. The Russians betrayed Iran over that one. In fact, they themselves supported sanctions against Iran after they promised to supply Iran with the S-300 system and that they didn't move forward with it. Now, as with the S-400s, the authority for this is what Putin himself has said, that the Russians, he said that the Russians offered Iran, not just the S-400 system, but an entire air defense system. Iran has many, many good reasons to be deeply suspicious of the Russians.

But as I've discussed in many places, they have no real serious choice at this time than to get help from where he comes, from Russia and from China too, which is also offering help and which comes with none of these issues. Ms. Texas, Xi says the U.S. does not have the equipment to fight an eight-month war? No. True. Does Iran, does Iran, though? User HM5 says it's Ramadan and millions of pilgrims are in Saudi. If Iran attacks Jeddah, the main transit route for the pilgrims, Saudi will have to respond. Agreed?

Well, I don't know what they're going to do. But as I said, conducting a war in Ramadan, I mean, I just cannot understand the folly of it. Klaus says, my Greek hairdresser and I are big fans of yours. It's hard for her to be a hairdresser because she uses her arms when she talks. Thank you for that, Klaus. Thank you for that super sticker. Wayfarer says, what are the best ways to get reliable information about this war? I'm afraid you have to spend hours and try to get information from every single source that you can

and that you need to develop a great deal of sense as to who is reliable and who is not. I will say that there are some telegram channels, Russian ones, or Russian-oriented ones, which I tend to find fairly reliable about these things, until slightly. other being one. But even they are not foolproof. It always takes time. There's an awful lot of confusion and misinformation out there, a lot of wishful thinking. And it just takes a long time, in my experience, to get a correct and proper feel of where this is going. Sparky says Iran's strength is in the decentralized nature of its government, its topography, and paradoxally, it's tangled bureaucracy. Absolutely.

Thank you, Nick, for that super sticker. Kastabish says, I respect your Russia-Ukraine analysis. Your understanding of pact duplicity is lacking. Talk to Christine Faire or Abjit Ahir Mithra. Pakistan is the original Ukraine-American puppet. Pakistan is a long-standing ally of the United States, as I very well remember. I've had many dealings. I'm proud for some ways I've.

much more well informed about Pakistan than I used to be about Ukraine. And I remember Pakistan all the way back to the 1960s. I remember the 1971 war. But it is a complex country with lots of different forces at play. And to repeat again, in the war in Afghanistan, the U.S. war against the Taliban. The Pakistanis were quietly supporting the Taliban, as was well-known by everybody who was in on the game. Rachaasa says how do you assess the current role of Turkey? That we won't talk about duplicity.

That's an even get better example of duplicity. Erdogan is waiting to see which side wins through. And then, of course, he will triumphantly and heroically come to his help. Scuder says Iran seems to be limiting its attacks in Arab nations to US basis, when or if they attack oil infrastructure. Well, at the moment, they don't want to attack oil infrastructure because they want to keep at least some kind of contact with those Arab governments. But, of course, they're attacking the bases, which makes complete sense.

To repeat again, oil infrastructure is enormous. It is a massive, difficult target to destroy. You can do a lot of damage to oil fields and oil installations, and they can still be up and running in a few weeks. And from Alexander Ross, US-Neil Kahn's what is wrong with these people? a point of this war in Afghanistan, another in Iraq, then another in Ukraine, now again in Iran, all stupid and disastrous.

Who will rid us of these maniacs? Well, indeed. The American people are the only people who can. I think they voted for Donald Trump, thinking that he would brush them away, and they have been bitterly betrayed. Yeah, Moon Dragon says, how will this have an impact on the Ukraine war?

If this war drags on, the United States is going to lose interest. in Ukraine. You won't be able to do much with Ukraine. Exactly. Won't be able to do much anywhere. Anyway, yeah. All right, Alexander, that's everything.

I know you're on a tight time schedule as well. So we'll wrap it up there. Thank you to everyone who watched us on this live stream. Thank you to our moderators. Thank you to all the questions on the super chat. And we'll be back with more videos. And tonight is a big night as far as this conflict goes. Absolutely.

We'll see what happens. All right, everybody. take take care one sec Alexander yep all right take care everyone