The Duran Podcast - USA and Russia; Difficult path to a lasting peace

Episode Date: December 27, 2024

USA and Russia; Difficult path to a lasting peace

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is going on in Ukraine. And it looks like we may have a venue for possible Trump-Putin-talks baby. Maybe a venue. Slovakia seems to be a place where Putin has stated could be a possible location for a Trump-Putin summit. We have a lot more to talk about when it comes to Ukraine. But let's start from the statements that Putin made. about Slovakia, which actually opens the conversation up to the various statements that he made at the conclusion of the Eurasian Economic Summit.

Because Putin did say a lot, and then we could talk about everything that is going on with Ukraine and Russia and the incoming Trump White House. Absolutely. Well, I think my own view is that we are hearing an awful lot of noise, mostly coming from Europe but also from some people in the United States ideas about sending European peacekeeping forces all those sort of things but I think I'm starting to get round of the view

that we need to put all of that aside because the action is quite different and we need to focus we need to home in on those people who really matter which is Trump and his immediate team Putin and his immediate team and those people who are acting as intermediaries who are clearly the Hungarians and the Slovaks.

Now, Trump, a couple of days ago, said that there needs to be a meeting with Putin. So he is now clearly flagging the need for a summit meeting with Putin. And he's made it fairly clear, if you look at his comments, that he's not going to come up with any detailed plan until that meeting with Putin takes place, which is absolutely correct.

That is exactly as it should be. So we've already had a telephone call from Orban to Putin. Lasted an hour. We remember all of that. Then we had what looks like to have been an hurriedly arranged visit by Fidzor to Moscow. Now, the story that was put about was that that was all about energy issues. And energy issues undoubtedly were a part of it. We speculated, and I think the word speculated.

is correct, but we speculated. We guessed in our discussions on the Duran, and a lot of people weren't happy with our guesses, that it actually went a lot further than that, that in fact, FISA was clearly going there to discuss how to get movement between the Americans and the Russians, to facilitate this dialogue between the Americans and the Russians, and that he was mostly there to talk about the conflict in Ukraine. along Pops Putin. He gives a very brief press conference, and he confirms that our speculation was absolutely correct.

He says that in fact, they did mostly talk about Ukraine. They talked about how to move towards peace and negotiations. And Slovakia offered itself as a venue for talks between the Americans and the Russians. and one presumes a Putin-Trump summit meeting. And Putin said that the Russians are open to that possibility. Bear in mind that the Russians are furious with the Finns. Once upon a time, meetings used to take place in Helsinki, but that's not going to happen anymore because Helsinki has gone over completely to the side of Ukraine,

the Biden administration and all of that. and Alexander Stubb, the new president of Finland, is deeply anti-Russian. They used to sometimes meet in Switzerland, but they're furious with the Swiss, because they feel the Swiss have gone the same way, and they no longer accept or acknowledge Switzerland as a neutral country. So Slovakia and Hungary are now beginning to look increasingly, like the only two places in Europe where such a meeting could take place. Now, there are suggestions, there are stories in the Russian media,

today about a possible summit meeting happening in other places in the Middle East and wherever. But I don't personally think that Trump would agree to meetings in the Middle East or outside Europe for all kinds of reasons. So we now have at least a possibility of a summit meeting between Trump and Putin in Slovakia. I mean, that begs questions. I mean, how exactly does Putin get there? That's the first thing to say. I mean, I can. I mean, I can. I mean, I can. I mean, imagine that he can, but remember airspace is closed and all those sort of things and there's arrest warrants for him and all that too. But they'll find a way. I mean, Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, some way or other, they'll find a way and it could very well be in

Slovakia. So there is movement on the negotiation front, or at least, let's sort of call it negotiations. Let's talk more about it re-establishing contacts, dialogue, and we'll see where it goes. And in the meantime, the Russians have been setting up their positions. Absolutely clearly, we had Valentinna Matvienko, head of the Federation Council, a close associate of Putin, she's very close. She comes to his home city, St Petersburg. She said a couple of ago that the negotiations are going to be very difficult and that the Russians have set out their positions and they're not going to shift from them. We've had a massive interview, which you've covered on your channel by Lavrov, in which he said essentially the same thing and said

that the Russians are not interested in a freeze and that they want to discuss the general security situation in Europe. And in that same press conference where Putin confirmed that he'd been talking with FISA about a possible summit meeting, negotiations, all that kind of thing about Ukraine. He also said very, very clearly that NATO membership for Ukraine now, tomorrow, in a year's time, in 10 years' time, in 15 or 20 years' time, that is absolutely off the agenda. He said that this idea of postponing NATO membership for 20 years or something like that had actually been suggested to him by none other than Biden. He told Biden that that wouldn't fly, and he's not going to change his position.

What is the position that the Trump White House can present to Putin outside of the Istanbul plus position or format that Putin has outlined? I mean, he actually not even outlined. He's been very specific on it. Putin, Lavrov, Medved. of Zahd of everyone in the Russian government, has been very specific on Russia's terms. What else could Trump possibly offer? Well, what could he offer?

I mean, you could offer some sanctions relief in return for Russian concessions on certain things. My own personal view is that none of this is going to fly. And I think that what the Americans need to do, the Trump people need to start thinking about, is what is it about Istanbul, which for the... the United States is such a problem. Because I didn't see that it is actually. I mean, nobody...

Istanbul Plus. Istanbul Plus. But Istanbul plus, the plus part of Istanbul is the territory. I mean, it's the fact that the Russians have advanced significantly in territorial terms. It could also be that they will say that they no longer support Ukraine entering the EU, which at one time back in Istanbul, they said that they're no problem with it. But why does the United States, why is it important for the United States? I'm talking about this adopting realist logic here.

Why does the United States care whether Ukraine enters the EU? How does it benefit the United States for the Ukraine to be within the EU? Well, of course, you could argue that he does if you're following a globalist neocon agenda. But, you know, if you are not following that and Trump says that he's not, basically, then in what conceivable sense does it make the West less secure, the position of the United States in Europe, less strong if Ukraine stays out of both NATO, which nobody. seriously believes he can join any time soon and probably ever if the Ukraine can't join the EU. A much, much more important thing I would have thought for the United States to do to achieve is to prevent Russian troops arriving at the border with Poland. I mean, that would be a challenge for the United States. if the Russians arrived again at the border with Poland

because the Poles would demand action to defend them potentially. So they need to come to some kind of, or it would be good for them to come to some kind of agreement about that. And also to come to some kind of general agreement with the Russians about how to reestablish some kind of system of security in Europe, which involves red lines and guardrails, which each side would respect. Well, Istanbul Plus proposes that very thing. Lavrov talked about that very same thing.

It seems to me that if you take a hard, objective approach to this, there's absolutely nothing about Istanbul Plus that for the Americans ought to be a problem. For the Europeans, it might be a different matter, but for the Americans, and even for, you know, some Europeans, you remember when we were in Hungary, the Hungarians were telling us the foreign ministry, that we went to the foreign ministry and they told us that, again, like the Poles, presumably, they don't want the Russian army too close to their borders. Istanbul Plus delivers that. So why not agree? Medvedev said the other day that the Europeans, U.S. aligned Europe, when all is said and done, should be punished by Russia. Not the United States, because the United States, it's a big power and okay, it does what it does,

and it's not realistic to seek to try and punish the United States from a geopolitical perspective. But the U.S. aligned countries in Europe, the big U.S. aligned countries in Europe, should be punished for what they did, what they're trying to do to Russia. Yeah. How, how real, I mean, with that statement in mind, would allowing accepting Ukraine's entry into the EU, would that not be considered a loss for? for Russia? Do you think they've changed their position on that? Because the European Union, getting into the European Union, to me, is having one foot in the door of NATO in a way. Yes. Absolutely. How do you separate the two at this point in time? The EU and NATO.

I think more and more Russians are coming around exactly to that view. Lavrov, I am sure, has come around to it. He talked about the EU as having become a political military organization, or political, geopolitical organization, not any longer just an economic union. Obviously, I've no doubt Medvedev, given all the other things he says, thinks the same. And you see more and more articles and thinks about this. I don't know what Putin's own view about this is. But I'm coming around. I suspect that with every day that passes, with every Russian advance,

with every Ukrainian attack on Russian territory and all that, I suspect the hand of people like Lavrov and Medvedev is getting stronger. And yes, I think that that calculus, I think that, I think what Medvedev is saying, he's making us, he's lifting the lid on an internal debate that's going on inside the Kremlin. He said, look, you know, these people have done all these terrible things to us. They've imposed this endless series of sanctions. It's not true that it's the Americans who, just by themselves launched this conflict upon us.

The EU and the member states have been at least equal accessories and some of them even more hard-lined. So how can we, by what possible logic, can we go on and say that this is just an economic association that is benign in its purposes and is not threat to us? We must make it clear to them and to the Ukrainians that EU expansion now also ends, that Ukraine is going to stay outside the EU and stay so permanently. And, well, you know, if they don't like it, they can lump it.

And I am sure that that view is gaining traction in Moscow every single day. Putin himself, by the way, no longer talks about the EU. Once upon a time, he did talk about the fact that Ukraine could join the EU. But I'm starting to think, I suspect that gradually he's going to shift on this issue as well. Now, can I say about punishing Europe, Russia doesn't need to punish Europe. Europe is doing a very, very good job of punishing Europe. Every day they're doing it, every additional sanction that they impose. is punishing Europe still further.

There's a bizarre article in the Financial Times, for example, talking about how Italian fashion goods are going into Russia, you know, canali suits and Veneta Bortega, bags and all of that, and how terrible that is. Now, I'm not even aware that these goods, these particular goods are actually sanctioned, that there's a prohibition on trade for them. But Russia was a major market for these companies.

And now it looks as if there's a push to stop them selling, even through middlemen, these suits and things like that in Russia. So, you know, they go from one extreme measure to another extreme measure. As I said, that's going to be a major blow for these companies. And yet we see that the demands continue to do it is still there. So, I mean, I don't think Medvedev needs to do very much because when it terms to coming, when it comes to punishing Europe, the Europeans are doing all the work for him. Yeah, they're working on a 16th sanctions package. They pass the 15th sanctions package.

And now they're working on a 16th sanctions package to time it with the anniversary of the special military operation. Just gives you some insight as to how the Europeans think when it comes to sanctions. they want to time it to the anniversary of the SMO. Odessa, Odessa, Nikolaev, if you make the assumption that you're talking about the four regions in some sort of an Istanbul plus format or some sort of a negotiation,

you're talking about Zappadoje, Herzon, Donets-Lugansk, you're leaving out Odessa and Nikolayev. Would that be considered a big loss for Russia if the Trump negotiation team says, okay, we'll agree to something close or similar to the four regions, and we'll leave it there. Is that a loss for Russia, especially given the fact that militarily Russia has all the momentum and they're winning and they're getting very close to, well, not only to Bakrosk, but I've read reports saying that they're about eight kilometers away from

Trenipro Petrovsk. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, they're about, Russia seems very close to some big key military victories, maybe even decisive. Yeah. Military victories in the next three to six, six months, maybe. Well, they're on the ring of winning the war. Putin said us much, by the way, also in that press conference,

which is very interesting. But I mean, he basically said, he basically said that very thing. In 2025, he said, the war is here. V-2020, exactly. Straightforwardly, if this war ends with Ukraine still in complete total control of Odessa, Nikolayev, Ismail, all of these places, which are, you know, hugely important in Russian history, there will be a very significant section of Russian public opinion that is very angry and will feel betrayed. And people in these places also, some of them, I'm not saying everybody,

But, you know, in Odessa especially, I suspect, some very disappointed and angry people and people who feel betrayed there as well. Now, having said that, this is where we can never be completely sure of what Putin is thinking, because Putin has been smudging things recently. He's stopped talking about the four regions. He started to talk about Novorosia.

I mean, he used to talk about. about Novorossia in 2014 and then he stopped doing so and recently he's revived it. Now, Novorosia, if we're talking about the Tsarist province of Novorossia, included all the places we've just mentioned, Adessa, Nikolayev, Ismail, all of those places. The whole black sea coast used to be part of the Tsarist province of Novorosir. So it could be that actually he is thinking more widely about this. I think he's holding back because I think he wants to see what Trump comes up with.

And I'm going to make a guess that even if Putin does accept some kind of territorial compromise, some would say a territorial betrayal, sacrificing direct control of Odessa and all of these places, it will come with demands for major changes in Kiev, for the political gut system there, and perhaps for some kind of Russian presence in all of these cities, maybe a presence in the form of restoring the Orthodox Church, establishing Russian cultural institutions, you know, not just consulates, but, you know, some kind of co-governmental systems. It is not impossible.

what the Trump people would say about that, I don't know. Now, the point is this, and I'm glad you've brought up the situation in the war, because this is the single most important fact about the conflict. There isn't an unlimited amount of time. And this is, I think, something that the Trump people need to understand and acknowledge and internalize. The Russians are advancing. the pace of their advance is quickening. The pace of deterioration of the Ukrainian military is accelerating.

You only need to go to Ukrainian telegram channels to comments by people like Bezuglia and Butusuf, ardent Ukrainian patriots, look at the problems that DS, you know, the mapping project in Ukraine has encountered, follow, you know, the sort of narrative. The issue is deep state. Deep state mapping project. The map, deep state mapping project. Yeah, just so the viewers know. All of these things.

If you look at all of that, I mean, you know, you see corroboration from the Ukrainian side about how bad the situation is. And of course, in terms of weapons, there's really no weapons that the United States can now supply. other than, you know, strategic ones, which it's not going to be able to, that Trump presumably would not want to. They can reverse the situation. And even if those were supplied, by the way, it doesn't follow that that would reverse the situation either. The Ukrainians now, after denying that they would, seem to be moving forward with the mobilization law to reduce the conscription age to 18, sending teenagers to fight. Well, I've already expressed my moral of horace

at this whole idea, but that's not going to change the situation militarily on the battlefronts either. I mean, these frightened young people, throwing them into the meat grinder isn't going to improve Ukraine's military situation. It's going to deepen and compound the catastrophe. So there isn't an unlimited time to do a deal because if the Russians reach the Dnieper, then, I mean, in military terms, it is game over.

And if the Russians make a decision to cross the Dnieper and to advance on Odessa, Nikolayev, Ismail and all of those places, and the Russian army reaches these places in conditions of a Ukrainian collapse. people must understand that the Russians are never going to go away. It would be as impossible for Putin to give up Adessa. If Adessa were to fall under Russian control, as it is politically impossible for him to give up Crimea. It is as important to Russians as that. So if the Trump people want to do a deal, Well, you said three to six months, that's about the time window that's left.

Yeah, that's what I was thinking, about six months, give or take. Final question, is there anything that Trump has that he can offer outside of sanctions to Russia? I mean, Trump is the negotiator, right? He's the big negotiator. That's how he sees himself. He's the best negotiator. He loves negotiating. That's what he loves to do.

That's what he was born to do. and that's that's the image that he's built up for himself whether it's true or not that's a different story but um as the as the negotiator that he claims to be what does what does he have to to offer Russia outside of sanctions relief if he even has that and I don't even know if if if removing sanctions is that big of a of a carrot to Russia at this point in time there's a thing that the thing that he can offer this is where the problem is because um It will be a very attractive offer to the Russians and one which I suspect Putin would want to take. But the problem is...

You mean sanctions relief? Not sanctions relief. The... What he can offer to the Russians is a rethinking of the security situation in Europe. Now, that would be very, very attractive to the Russians. The problem is that there are going to be people in the United States, many of them, and of course an overwhelmingly strong number of people in Europe, who won't see that as an offer to make in order to make a deal,

they will see it as a surrender. Now, this is a terrible and awful situation to find. oneself in because a deal with the Russians about security in Europe, a long-term deal that will stabilize Europe, the situation of Europe, is in everybody's interests. It's in Russia's interests. It's in America's interests because the Americans need to start, you know, reducing their over-extended commitments there in Europe. They're in the Middle East, they're in Asia, they're in all kinds of places.

They themselves say that they need to start drawing down in Europe. So it would be good for the Americans. It would be good for the Russians. It would be very good for whatever Ukraine is left, because it could then function in a stable security environment. It would be good for the Europeans too. They always tell themselves, they're always claiming that the Russians are going to, to march on Paris or whatever.

Well, if there's a general agreement on security in Europe which benefits everybody, that's not going to happen. So this is the obvious offer to make. It's the obvious thing that you put down on the table and try to work to get the Russians to talk about. It is more important for the United States to do that than, And it is, then the situation in Ukraine itself is. The trouble is, as I said, there are some people who are not going to see that for what it is,

which is a wise act of statesmanship, a proposal that actually seeks to reduce tensions and bring us back to a detente-type situation. They get to see that it is a capitulation to Putin and all of that instead. And that is going to be an immense problem in any discussions between the Americans and the Russians going forward. Yeah, but that's something that even if it was to be discussed, agreed that this was going to be discussed, would that be something a European architecture that could lead to a pause in the fighting or a de-escalation? Because I imagine something like that would take a lot of time. to work out a new European security. That would be a architecture would be a lot of negotiating over a long period of time.

It would take a huge amount of time, but it might incentivize Putin to stick with Istanbul. Plus, in other words, all the other things we said, keep out of NATO, maybe keep out of the, keep Ukraine out of the EU, but limit your territory, the territory you go for to the four regions. just saying, I mean, you know, the Russians might agree to some easing of their demands, you know, about, you know, territory beyond the four regions, about the status of Kharkov, about the status of Odessa, conceivably, if we're talking about Putin himself, even about some form of attenuated EU membership, you know, you can have EU membership in various levels. That's the theory. I don't take that very seriously. but, you know, they could talk about that. But the point is, you could, you might be able to come to some kind of agreement with that and achieve some kind of end of conflict deal. If you can persuade the Russians that there is going to be a serious negotiation,

a serious discussion about the general situation, security situation in Europe, moving forward with some of the ideas that the Russians have pre-executive, about how that can be restructured and reorganized to take into account Russian security concerns. I think it's going to be very, very difficult. Putting all the pieces of this together is going to be very hard. But if Trump is prepared to take that step and is prepared to face down the massive opposition that he's going to face, I don't think he needs to worry about the Europeans, But there's going to be opposition in the United States as well. People like McConnell still there in the Senate.

He's still got his gaggle of people in the Senate who are doing everything they possibly can to obstruct any change that he makes. And remember, McConnell is at his most tenacious and effective in opposition. He never puts forward actual creative, forward-looking things. He's always someone who knows how to stop, not how to advance. But anyway, he's got Trump would need to get by all of those people as well.

It would be a huge task. But conversely, if Trump can do it, he would be one of the greatest presidents. He would go down as one of the greatest presidents who's done one of the greatest things for the United States and for its people delivered peace in Europe. enabled the United States to start drawing its strength down from Europe, start focusing on other things. He would complete the work of Ronald Reagan. If I can put it like that, I mean, lots of people discuss Ronald Reagan, but I'm taking the Jack Matlock perspective of what Reagan was up to, the Craig Roberts perspective of what Reagan was up to.

He would be able to complete the actual. task is that Reagan began, bring a real proper final end to the Cold War, establish a workable relationship with Russians and stability in Europe, and release the United States to get on with its own business and to look after its own problems and to worry about whatever other place in the world it wants to worry about. So it would be a huge achievement if he can pull it off. It might be worth trying. He's got four years.

He's not going to seek re-election again in 2028. So he's got lots of political capital and the American people back him and would back him on this. Look, for a European architecture, he has four years for a new European security architecture. He's got four years. For Ukraine, he's got about six months, I guess, is how you would separate the two. Right. I mean. The six months are absolutely crucial because unless, six months, nine months a year, I'm just saying, well, I know, I know. 2025, let's say, he's got 2025. Okay, let's say 2020,

it's absolutely crucial because to repeat again, if the Russians lose patience, cross the NEPA, reach the Reaper, decide that they're moving beyond the NEPA, start moving on the desert and all those places. And by the way, Kiev is well. then we can forget all about security situations in Europe, drawdown of Americans and all of those things, because we would be in an adversarial relationship. We'd be locked into an adversarial relationship that would probably continue for decades. So he's not good, and this is coming back to what we were saying, just a moment ago. He doesn't have an unlimited time window, but the time window is that.

there and if he uses it well, as I said, if he uses it well and is prepared to expend some political capital on this, then as I said, he will go down as one of the greatest and most consequential presidents, whatever else he achieves. And in that context, by the way, because as I've said so many times, everything is connected, he will achieve in the United States an awful lot. Yeah, the other detail is the leadership of Ukraine. Would Zelensky Budanov, Yermak, would these guys be allowed to go on with what they're doing in their future life? Or would Russia, I'm trying to phrase this diplomatically, or would Russia say, no, uh-uh, we've got cases against all these guys and they need to go to a Russian court. I mean, how would that work as well?

There is not an insignificant detail because it was Zelensky, Yermak, Budavanov, Poroshenko, who is also being talking to the guy in charge of the SBU, all of them, exactly. Yeah, exactly. Whatever. I mean, they don't want, of course, to see any kind of peace agreement between the Russians and the Americans. involving Ukraine at all. They don't want any kind of peace agreement in Ukraine at the moment. I mean, whenever they come up with proposals for peace, you immediately look under the, you know, declaration, and it becomes clear that the Ukrainians are continuing to press impossible demands,

which are clearly intended to wreck the whole process. I mean, I firmly believe that these people would much rather go down, to a total defeat than compromise. Because, of course, from their point of view, provided they keep the money going, provided they can preserve their narrative, provided they can build a narrative of Ukraine betrayed, they can go to Florida or Paris or wherever it is they want to go,

and they will be able to continue their careers, their lives as they would want them to. So they're going to resist every, they're going to fight every step towards negotiations. And you're absolutely right, the Russians are exasperated with them. I mean, Putin is now openly saying Zelensky's illegitimate. He doesn't have any right to conduct negotiations. He can't sign any peace agreements. It's a fairly clear hint, I think, to Trump,

that what he wants to see is regime change in Kiev. He wants Zelensky and all that. crowd out of the way. Easy thing for Putin to basically hint he wants. Very difficult for the United States to deliver now, given how deeply entrenched these people have become, given how big the security apparatus in Ukraine today is. One can say, obviously, the Americans control it, but one should never forget these people have agency and they've got guns. So, you know, they're there. and they will have continuing support from their friends in London, in Paris, provided, of course, there isn't a big change in Paris, but certainly in London, maybe in Berlin, definitely in Brussels, and of course they will still have friends in Washington. So this is not an insignificant problem, and one that will require an awful lot of very careful and skillful handling, and I'm not sure how it's done, but maybe it's better at the moment.

not to look too far ahead and not to look at these problems, the most important thing to do is to get at least the dialogue going, to get a proper understanding by each side of what its perspectives are and of what the ultimate outcome is and to move the process along. And let me say again, the ultimate outcome, if you really want to Get the Russians interested. It's not expanded beyond Ukraine. Talk about security in Europe.

See what's come up with proposals. Be prepared to listen to the Russians about this. Lavrov was talking about this a lot in that interview he just gave. And then if you do that, you can start moving the process along. And to repeat again. There is nothing about any of this, which, as I said, if you take a realist, objective perspective, should be a problem for the United States. It really isn't, I mean, US national interests realistically assessed are for peace in Europe,

not for control of Donbass, or anything of that kind. I mean, this is an absurd situation. It's part of a neocon grand strategy that has catastrophically failed. And getting, you know, nailing one's, you know, flag to the mast of that sinking ship is an exercise in, not statemanship, but absurdity. Yeah, I find it interesting, just a thought that I have. And we'll end the video. We're running a bit long.

but I find it interesting that all of this is happening at a time when Poland is going to be taking over the presidency of the European Union. I'm reading a lot of articles coming out of European media saying that Poland's going to use the opportunity as president of the European Union, taken over for Hungary, by the way, to support Ukraine, to highlight Poland close connection and cooperation with Ukraine,

and this is what's going to define Poland's presidency of the European Union. Maybe, maybe the authorities in Poland, maybe the European Union might use Poland's presidency to signal some sort of tie-in with the West. Maybe. I may be looking into this a bit too much, but I have been reading, but I have been reading articles talking about what's going to define Poland's presidency

for the European Union. It's all connected to Ukraine and the close cooperation and close ties between Poland and Ukraine. Absolutely. This is despite the fact that it has become increasingly clear over the last two years, most Poles are now very disenchanted with the Ukraine thing. I get the sense that the Polish political class doesn't really give us. sausage about Ukraine. And on top of everything else, they have made it very clear that they don't want Ukrainian, Polish soldiers fighting the Russians in Ukraine. So yes, they will do that. They will,

they will use this in every possible way that they can. They will, Poland will play a major role in this. But again, this is where the Americans need to be very clear cited, because what the polls and the Europeans are trying to do by basically sabotaging any peace process, raising problems, advocating for Ukraine, doing all sorts of things that, you know, the Russians own could be happy with in order to throw the whole thing off course, contradicting the Americans, running, you know, disagreeing with the Americans publicly, doing all of those kind of things, is that they're not trying to save Project Ukraine. Project Ukraine is lost. It's been defeated. What they're trying to try to, to do is to keep the Americans in Europe. That is the whole purpose now of European policy.

There is no other purpose to it than that. They can't win in Ukraine. Well, some of them may still think they can, but mostly they understand that Ukraine has lost the war. But they don't want the American troops leaving Europe. They don't want the United States. United States, recalibrating its economic relations with Europe in a way that starts treating Europe not as a part of the collective West, but simply other countries that the US trades with. They don't want any of that to happen. They want the Americans in Europe. They want the Americans confronting the Russians.

That enables all of the European countries, especially countries like Poland, to continue to strike poses, to pretend that they're important countries. to justify further steps towards ever greater European integration, because then, of course, you justify all of that with the Russian threat. You need the Americans in to be able to do those things. So as I said, they are going to do the. Poles are absolutely right. You're absolutely right.

The polls are going to try and do all of the things that you said. Ursula is going to be backing the polls to the Hill. Usulus drops away, whoever takes a place at the head of the commission will do the same. Friedrich Meltz, he'll be there. All of them will be doing this. But that is what the real objective that these people now have is. And they'll be trying to scare the Americans. They'll be saying, look, if you do pull out, we're going to go ahead and go nuclear.

I mean, there's stories about this. And again, the Americans shouldn't let themselves, in my opinion, be influenced by all these bluffs, because that's all ultimately they are. I mean, Poland could go nuclear if it wants. What is it achieved by it? What ultimately does it gain? It's not going to become a superpower on the back of it. All right. We will end the video there.

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