The Duran Podcast - US/NATO test Putin's restraint

Episode Date: October 8, 2025

US/NATO test Putin's restraint

All right, Alexander, let's talk about some statements from Russian President Putin and a strange statement from Zelensky as well. So Putin has been talking quite a bit about the long-range missiles from the United States to Ukraine, and he's been asked both at the Valdae and also speaking to Zarubin about what Russia would do if Tomahawks were given to Ukraine. and Putin's answer has been very clear, a breakoff of diplomacy with the United States. The tomahawks not making any difference on the front lines and, of course, a Russian response. Zelensky, he talked about an air ceasefire is what he talked about, a unilateral air ceasefire, but he didn't get into any of the details as to what he meant by unilateral or what he meant by an air-seas-fire. Obviously, this is connected to the ramp up of missiles and drones from the Russian military,

which are hitting Ukraine and the fact that the Patriot Air Defense systems are useless against the Russian onslaught. But it is worth pointing out, Alexander, that just the other day, Ukraine fired high Mars into Belgarod, and they did cause a big blackout. out in Belgorod. So from the Russian side of things, they have still not been able to deal with the missiles that do hit the towns on the border. And the buffer zone that Putin talks about often has not been able to prevent the attacks coming from Ukraine. I believe these Haimars were launched from Harkiv city, from the actual downtown city.

city of Harkov, and they were launched into Belgarod. But the buffer zone, the way I look at it is going to have to be extended after this attack on the power plant in Belgorod. That's what they hit. They hit the power plant in Belgarod, and they caused a blackout affecting about 40,000 citizens. So interesting developments and two interesting statements, one from Putin and the bizarre statement from Zelensky. So where do you want to start? Well, let's start with Putin because this is a very interesting statement, not because of what Putin said, which repeated in substance what he'd already said at his speech and Q&A at Valdai, but the fact that he's had to say it all over again. he said at the Valdai speech in response to a Q&A that if the United States supplied Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine,

they wouldn't really be the United States supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine because everybody knows that those missiles have to be launched by the United States itself, even if they are launched from ground launches in some way. and that it would be the Americans involved, and that the Americans would be launching missiles deep into Russia, and that this would create a complete collapse in relations between Russia and the United States. Now, there's been a large number of people who have come back and said that Putin's comments in Valdai were far too measured and far too moderate, and that what he said about the Tomahawk missiles perhaps wasn't really strongly enough communicated to the United States. And there's also been criticism that, in fact, Putin talking in this way,

Putin talking about Russia's ultimate success in shooting down Tomahawk missiles, was almost an invitation to the United States, to the hardliners in the United States. to supply Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine because, of course, the hardliners actually want to see a collapse in relations between Russia and the United States. They want, in other words, the very outcome that Putin is warning against. So I get the sense that somebody, obviously, in the Kremlin was not happy with Putin's statement. And Zarubin was then put up. Zarubin, to be clear, is a Russian journalist, but he's very, very close to the political leadership in Russia. I mean, he's almost, if you like, a semi-detached figure within the Kremlin system.

Anyway, he was then asked to put the same question to Putin all over again. And Putin perhaps disappointed the more hardline people in Moscow. by an effect repeating the same point all over again. Say, you know, if they do supply the Tomahawk missiles, then it will mean that U.S. Russian relations will go back into deep freeze. So on some respects, you could say that this is a very tough statement, and in substance, it is a very tough statement. But it doesn't perhaps go where some people,

in Moscow might have wanted by directly threatening counteraction. I regard this exchange as a further sign that there are disputes and tensions going on within Russia, within the Kremlin, within the political class. And there was another thing that happened over the course of the Valdite discussions, which is that, of course, Putin has consistently held to the line until, now that though NATO entry for Ukraine is absolutely out of the question, it crosses a red line. Entry into the European Union is acceptable because the European Union, unlike NATO, is a purely trade and commercial and economic organization.

And then again at Valdai, somebody, a Russian journalist, put to him again the question. Well, what are you talking about? These people are now talking about creating an army. They want to make Ukraine the fist that they're going to use against us. They are clearly no longer just a economic and trade association. And Putin responded with a long answer, which didn't answer that particular point. So I would say that we are seeing tensions now and that those people within the Kremlin who are taking an ever harder line are making it clear that Putin should be challenging Putin through these interviews repeatedly in this way. To be absolutely clear, and I think this is a point that I really want to.

to emphasize. There is no question of any direct threat or challenge to Putin's position. I know there's been some speculations of that kind. On the contrary, he is absolutely firmly in control. We saw that throughout the Valdai meeting. He was relaxed. He was cheerful. He was confident. He was making jokes and doing all kinds of things. This is not a leader who is under political pressure, but there are starting to be debates and discussions within the Kremlin, within Moscow, the leadership to take a harder line towards the West. Yeah, I mean, the question that so many people have, including analysts like us, is why does Putin continue to insist on things like, you know,

know, membership for Ukraine into the EU. And when everyone clearly understands that the EU is the most aggressive force against Russia. I mean, they openly state that their goal is war with Russia. I mean, yeah, the United States is behind it. Yes, the United States pushes them. Yes, the United States funds them. Yes, the United States orders them to continue to take a hard line against Russia, but the rhetoric, the statements from European officials are some of the most belligerent and aggressive of anyone that has come out during this conflict. They openly talk about creating an army to take on Russia. I mean, that's what Mertz has been saying for the past month now. We're going to create a German military to go to war with Russia. Pretty much, that's

what he's saying. So, I mean, everyone sees this. Why would Putin still say, well, you know, Ukraine can still perhaps maybe enter the EU. We don't have a problem with that because it's an economic union. Everyone knows it. It's not an economic union. Everyone knows. Even Orban, even Orban said it's a war project. It's not an economic project. It's a war project, Orban said. That's a direct quote. So what is he thinking? What's his strategy? and all of this. And I'm sure people around him are telling him this as well. I'm sure people are telling him, look, look at what Arban said. This is what Arban said. Well, absolutely. I mean, the reason this is happening is because obviously he still wants

to keep the door open for some kind of diplomatic resolution to this problem. But, as I said, that position is now being challenged and is being tested. And to repeat again, what I've said in the passed about Putin. He's not under any conceivable threat. I mean, I read claims, I've read claims that, you know, there's a potential coup in the prospect. I mean, put all of those ideas completely to bed. And that's not going to happen. But one of the reasons that Putin has been there in the Kremlin, the leader of Russia, has so much support in Russia, is precisely because ultimately, he listens to this kind of advice and he starts to shift his position as that advice gets stronger and as the facts push him in that direction.

So the fact that he's been publicly challenged, because this is a public challenge, both on the Tomahawks, which is in effect an attempt, you know, the whole issue of the Tomahawks is deeply interconnected with the attempts to try and sort. sort out some kind of way forward with the US, but the fact that he's been publicly challenged over it, the fact that he's been publicly challenged with the EU demonstrates two things. Firstly, that Putin, contrary to everything you read in the media in the West, we said this many times, in Russia itself, remains a relative moderate. And secondly, the door full of negotiations, any kind of negotiations, any resolution of the conflict in Ukraine that is not

military, is now almost closed. The fact that he's been publicly challenged in this way is a sign of this. And Putin knows this himself. He's not going to put himself in a position where he's out on a limb with this one. And besides, and I've said this many times, With Putin, always at the end, however far he goes to be accommodating to the other side, we always see that in the end he sticks to what he sees as the protection of Russia's interests. So people who want to supply Tomahawk missiles, perhaps need to understand that. and people who want to develop EU armies and all of that also need to understand that. We are coming very close now to the point of no return in relations between Russia and the West.

And when I say the point of no return, also a situation where the Russians might themselves start to take counteraction of a kind that we won't like. I mean, look at the contrast, missiles launched into Russia and the Russians have remained calm about it. You're talking about the attacks on Belgarod, which have just taken place, and these are Haimars missiles, and it's been widely known that Haimars missiles can only be launched at targets with input from the US as well. The US plays a role, in other words, with Haimars launchers. And we've had previously strikes with storm shadows and scalp missiles and attack them's missiles deep into Russia. The Russians undoubtedly, because this has been Putin's policy, have responded up to now very calmly to this. Contrast this with the incredible panic, hysteria, and all of that over a few unarmed decoyed drones that get into Poland.

and the fact that a few fighter jets travel from one Russian basin Karelia to another Russian base in Kaliningrad and might have shaved across an uninhabited rock, which is part of Estonia, but which is in the Baltic Sea. Compare that hysteria with the calm with which Russia has up to now responded to these extreme provocations, that period might be ending to. Yeah, extreme provocations that get more extreme. I mean, the argument, the argument that many people make, which is a correct argument, is that the restraint also leads to the provocations becoming more extreme because the restraint is

misunderstood by the West, by a lot of hardliners in the West. Yes. Well, this is, I'm absolutely sure what people in private. are telling Putin and whoever it is in the Kremlin who still supports him. And I'm not sure who that is, by the way, because virtually every other official, Medvedev, Lavrov, Patruchev as well now. I mean, they're taking a much harder line than Putin himself is. Before we talk about Zelensky, do you think the Trump administration realizes this? I didn't think so. I didn't think so.

I don't think so. I think this is the problem. Ray McGovern, who used to be, you know, the top CIA analyst on Russia, has recently complained that the art of Kremlinology has disappeared in the West. And he's absolutely right. I don't think people any longer have the sophistication to understand these nuances and see the signs of tension. that exist in the Kremlin now. I mean, to me, this is clear that there are now push back an argument. I mean, I've never seen a situation where within two days, Putin is asked essentially the same question. I mean, publicly by a Russian journalist. I mean, this is unusual to put it mildly. It makes essentially the same answer.

So to me, this looks clear that there is now growing tension, or rather not tension. Tension is too strong a word, but disagreement in Moscow about this. And the very fact that people are doing this in public is a sign that the debate in Moscow is shifting. But I don't think people in Washington understand this. I don't think there's any real grasp of this. And, of course, we have to face the fact that if we're talking about relations going into a deep freeze and escalations, there are people in Washington who would actually probably welcome that. That's welcome. All right.

So let's talk about Zelensky's comments. What on earth is he talking about? Unilateral air ceasefire. I mean, you've got into no details. So what do you think he's talking about? I mean, on the face of it, it's absolutely absurd. I mean, unilateral means that one side stops. Now, who does he expect to stop?

The Russians? Probably. Yeah, well, exactly. But what power does he have to force the Russians to stop? I mean, it's, I mean, if he could just get the Russians to stop by now, well, he's had three and a half years to do it. He's friends in the West. They've not been.

able to do it either. So, you know, what is he talking about? Or does he mean Ukraine and these Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and the latest Ukrainian attack on the power plant in Belgarod? Well, I don't believe that it is Ukraine because, of course, if it was Ukraine, he would simply order such a unilateral ceasefire himself. He's never done anything like that, by the way. at any time since the start of the special military operation, whenever there had been unilateral ceasefires over the course of the special military operation, they have, I think, without exception,

been announced by Putin, never by Zelensky. So if he wants a unilateral ceasefire, and he means the Russians, then, I mean, he's simply not going to get it. What I took from his comments is that he is now starting to get desperate. I mean, the war in the sky is going disastrously badly for Ukraine. The Russians are hitting the railway system. And this was something that they didn't do before.

I mean, they didn't have the ability to attack trains and railway lines and things of that kind. And they are attacking the energy system. And the point is they're doing it night after night after night. If we go back to say 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2020, 24, and 2024, 2025, the previous three winters, what we used to get were Russian strikes, which used to happen, say, twice a month. There would be big and devastating strikes involving lots of missiles. But at that time, the Russians didn't have the capabilities to continue to conduct attacks against the Ukraine energy complex, against positions right across Ukraine every single night

in these enormous numbers. Now the Russians can because they're producing Girand drones in their absolute hundreds and are therefore able to sustain these kind of aerial offensives every night and sometimes during the day as well. And Ukraine's air defense system, it's Patriot missiles, it's Irish D's. We now have admissions, even in the Western media, that it isn't working anymore, that he can't shoot down Russian missiles. We did a program about this recently. We said that this is probably an admission of what has been true all along. But then previously, these stories about Ukraine shooting down hundreds of missiles, more missiles than the Russians perhaps launched. You could carry them off because you didn't have the Russians hammering away at Ukraine every night.

Now they can, and it is clearly having an effect, and it is obviously having an effect. And the Ukrainian drone offensive, by contrast, obviously you get attacks. like the one on Belgarod, which do real damage. But if you're talking about the attacks on the refineries, overall, they're doing minimal damage. I've been reading accounts about how successful they've been throughout the Western media. And these are very, very remote from the realities.

Yes, drones do get through. They do conduct damage. to refineries, individual refineries, that does result in clouds of smoke. But refineries are enormous industrial facilities. They're very, very resilient. They can be repaired very quickly. Attacks with small drones are not going to make a huge amount of difference. And the Russians are able to, not just repair the refineries, very quickly, but they're taking countermeasures now to harden the the refineries over time, the effectiveness of this is going to reduce. And from what I have learned from people within Russia, there has not been the tremendous

crisis in gasoline that some people are talking about. Now, I mean, that's so, I mean, this whole plan is failing. If we're talking about issues within the Russian economy, they continue to come from the fact that interest rates continue to be exceptionally high. We've discussed this in many programs, and this is causing now more complaint and more anger. They are not caused by these attacks by Ukrainian drones. Yeah, and soon you're going to get to the point where Russia is going to be launching a thousand of these a day. Absolutely. I mean, that's a huge escalation, if you consider where they were a year ago or two years ago.

Well, exactly. And these are more sophisticated drones. Some of them are jet powered. Most of them carry bigger warheads. Some of them are not just guided, but they can be guided by controllers. I mean, this is an aerial campaign starting to develop into something like what we saw during the Second World War, where 1,000 bomber raids used to happen, but now they're happening every night using drones.

And the explosive power of these drones is, I've been told, to some extent, comparable with what those 1,000 bomber raids of the Second World War were able to do. So this is a devastating air campaign. You can understand why Zelensky's beginning to become desperate. He's also made very critical comments about the Europeans, about the fact that, and NATO, that the fact that they haven't reacted to, you know, the Russian drone incursions and all of that,

as if they can. And as if anything they do with respect to that is going to resolve his own problems. So he's now making these desperate statements about unilateral ceasefires in the sky. I suppose that is another pleading comment to the Americans to Trump, to try to put pressure Putin, to force Putin to stop. There is absolutely no reason to think that Putin is going to stop. He's getting pressure as well on the hardliners. As we've just discussed.

As we've just discussed. Okay. We will end the video there, the durand.com. We're on X, we're on Rumble, we're on Telegram, go to Durant Shop, pick up some merch like what we are wearing in this video update. There is a link in the description box down below. Take care.