The Duran Podcast - Velyka Novosilka falls. Reality smashes into 'Ukraine victory' spin

Episode Date: January 28, 2025

Velyka Novosilka falls. Reality smashes into 'Ukraine victory' spin

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is going on in the conflict in Ukraine, and we have a big announcement from the Russia Ministry of Defense. That is the town of Velika-Novosilke has been captured by the Russian military. This is an important region. You will explain why this is an important region. And I imagine in the next couple of days, the Russian Ministry of Defense will announce the full capture control of Doretsk as well. And it's Pachrovsk, I guess. Pachrovsk. And then the Russians will move closer to the Deneper and into the Denebro-Petrovs region. They're about four kilometers away from

the Denebro blast. Anyway, quick advances. With each passing day, each passing week, the Russian military continues to capture more and more important areas and towns, which were very, very built up Ukraine military defenses. So what's the situation on the front line in Ukraine? We are getting very, very close now to the military endgame. And I should say the fall of Alikas Novosilka has provoked a kind of psychological crisis in Ukraine itself. I mean, they've obviously lost fortified places before, Bahmert, Avdewka, Krasnogorovka, but they've usually played, they play the usual game with all of those. They've, if you remember, they've discounted them.

They pretended that actually these places weren't at that enormous importance, strategically unimportant. And, you know, they spun stories about how the places hadn't really been captured at all and that there was still Ukrainian troops fighting there and that the Russians were making it up. And then, you know, they just moved on and talked about fighting going on in other places. It hasn't been like that this time. The Ukrainians themselves. I mean, when I mean the Ukrainians, I mean the Ukrainian commentary community, the reporters,

the bloggers, those sort of people, the people connected with the soldiers, have been really shaken by this. particular battle. Now, Velika and Novo Silka is a small town. It's about 6,000 people. It was the last remaining big fortified position that the Ukrainians possessed on an area of territory called the Vremivka Ledge. So this is a sort of slightly raised area of ground is the biggest town on this place, in this place. And it had been very, very heavily fortified by Ukraine. And it was understandable that it would be. It was easy to fortify because I believe three and possibly four rivers criss-crossed. So these rivers formed strong not fortified barriers. The point about the Vremovka ledge is that if you control it,

you have access to one of two routes of attack, and it's got various sort of communication sort of connect up with Vremovka, but you can either use it to push West, if you're the Russians, towards the NEPA, or you can try and use it as the Ukrainians did in their 2023 offensive to push south, south towards Marupo. And in fact, if you go back to the 2023 offensive, the start of Ukraine's summer 2023 offensive was not with an attack on Rabatino and an attempt to break through to places like Topmac and to the Sea of Azov. It actually began south of Velika Yanovosilka in an attempt by the Ukrainians to capture various villages and to break through the Russian-controlled territory that made up the Vremivka

ledge to push through to Marupol. Now, that offensive, of course, failed. It failed completely. But over the last couple of weeks, the Russians have been conducting their own offensive in the Vremov-Kasalian. They've recaptured all the territory on the Vremov-Kaselian that the Ukrainians captured in 2023. And now they've taken this prize, this major fortified position, the strongest, most powerful fortified position on the Vremf Kassalian, which is Velikayanovo Cirque itself. And that now unhinges the entire Ukrainian defense system to the west, so that the Russians can push forward from here, either northward outflanking Ukrainian troops, who was still trying to hold the Russians back as the Russians advanced from places like Kurovo,

which they captured recently. Or the Russians could push westwards towards the deeper itself, or they could push southwards. And it's around potentially an important town in the Aporozio region called Gulli Polly, opening up the way for the Russians to attack Zaporosia city itself. They could do all three. I mean, the Russians are probably now strong enough to use Velika and Novo Silka as a base area to do all three of these things.

And quite plausibly, over the next couple of months, they will do. So the loss of this place is a very, very bad defeat for the Ukrainians. But what has shocked Ukrainians also is how it came about because the Russians have been gradually winning territory in this whole area ever since the late summer. So in the summer, they broke through to Pachrovsk, Selidovo, all of these places, which lied just north of Velikaya Novo Silka. A few weeks ago, about a month ago, they captured Kurachovil, which is also put Velikaya Novo Silka in jeopardy.

Back in October, they captured Ugladar, which is another big, strongly fortified Ukrainian position, a little to the southeast, which had also. acted as a kind of advanced barrier, slowing Russian advances towards Velika and Novo Silka. So the Russians were gradually, gradually converging on Velika and Novo Silka. But when the actual battle for Velika and Novo Silka began, this very strong fortified place, it collapsed within just a few days. The Ukrainians were not able to organize a strong resistance there. One of their best brigades, the 110th Brigade, was sacrificed trying to hold the Russians

back in Velika and Novo Silka. And to add to the sense of shock, when it became clear that Velika Yanovosilka was about to fall and that the Ukrainian troops in Velika Yanovosilka were about to be. surrounded, the Ukrainian High Command, in other words, Zelensky and Sirsky, did that which they always do, which is that they insisted that the men stand and fight to the bitterest end. And of course, they did in previous battles before the final collapse, people have just taken decisions into their own hands and fled across the fleet of fields escaping the ultimate, you know, collapse. But they weren't able to, to the same extent, this time, because the river barriers,

which had provided the defense, you know, the basis for the defense of Velika and Novo Silka, when the collapse came, acted as a trap. And it became impossible for the Ukrainians to cross the rivers, themselves to escape Velika Novo Silka in order to avoid captivity and to save their lives. So there is huge criticism that the battle was mishandled, that this place fell at all, but also that when it became clear that it was going to fall, there was no attempt made to organize a proper withdrawal so that the result is that a disproportionate. number of Ukrainian troops in the town between 1500 and 2000 were either killed or taken prison. Yeah, he never gets called out on this, Zelensky or his generals, whether it was Zolluzni or

Siersky. They both did the same thing, even though Zilluzni would claim that he would push back on this type of policy of keeping the men in an area where they should have retreated. because it was untenable for them to hold on to that area. Zelensky continues to do this. We're closing in on four years of this conflict, and he never gets called out on it. He never got called out on it by the Biden White House. Let's see if Trump calls him out on this, I doubt it.

But more importantly, the mainstream media never reports on this. They never say that Zelensky is sacrificing his men. For PR optics, I mean, in this scenario, I still can't figure out what exactly did he gain by keeping those men in this area for two or three weeks longer. What did he gain out of it? Nothing. I mean, what he got through the inauguration, the Trump inauguration? I mean, what was the purpose of this? Was that it?

Just don't let this area collapse while Trump is being inaugurated because maybe he'll change his mind to give me more money? Well, the story that you get from some people that they try to explain it is that that was the reason that Zelensky sacrificed all those thousands of men in order to make sure that Velikéayanovicilka didn't fall before or during Trump's inauguration. That may be true, by the way. I mean, it may be the kind of... It's madness. I know, Alano, it is madness. It may be the kind of answer that Zelensky himself is giving. It may be how he rationalizes and explains these bizarre decisions.

But can I just point out, he always comes up with some kind of explanation. Why people aren't allowed to retreat. He does this constantly and all the time. So sometimes if Trump's inauguration, or sometimes in the past it was the next Bramstein meeting or it was the importance of avoiding a particular date in the calendar because, you know, it was Victory Day in Moscow. That was the case with Bachmut, as I remember, something of that kind. He always comes up with a reason for holding out far longer than it makes any sense to.

And I have to say, I think fundamentally you're dealing here with a deep, really ingrained psychological condition, which it seems none of the military people are prepared to challenge, which is that Zelensky cannot bear retreats. Remember, he's an amateur. He has no military background. The idea of retreating from Ukrainian. controlled ground is intolerable to him. And he seems to understand his role as the overall, you know, commander in chief, as telling his commanders to keep fighting to the very last man.

And nothing that happens. No advice that he's given can ever sway him. Now, I can, you know, at a certain level, we're dealing with an amateur who approaches military matters in a completely amateur way. One can just about understand why Zelensky behaves like this. Why repeatedly Ukrainian military leaders go along with this folly, that is a perhaps even better question, but they always do. Why does the Pentagon go along with this, or the Pentagon under Biden? Why does the UK, which I believe is not controversial to say now in 2025 that the UK is very much behind and involved with his Zelensky administration, they drive a lot of his policy. You could say the same about the EU, but I would say the UK and the Pentagon are very much involved with Ukraine, especially, I believe, especially with a lot of the, the military strategy and the tactics. How come they don't tell Olensky retreat? I mean, don't they know better? Don't the generals in the Pentagon known better? Don't the generals in the

UK military know better? Or have they given him the order in the past? Never retreat. Because this war is about territory. It is about land. And we cannot be seen as losing land because that would destroy this media narrative that we've created in around Ukraine. I mean, Am I answering my own question? What are your thoughts? You are answering your own question because I think that brings us directly to what is actually been happening. This is what happens when you create narratives and live inside them and demand that everybody

else adhere to them. We've discussed this many times. Now, can I just say what advice the Pentagon gives the Ukrainians, I suspect it is enormous and has been continuous with people like... General Millie in the past, playing a very, very active role in planning operations. I mean, it's now increasingly looking as if Millie was far more deeply involved in the planning of the summer 2020-203 offensive, for example, than people had understood in the past. As for the British, it's now well-known that they played an absolutely central role

in organizing the debacle, the catastrophe that was the Grinky operation. when the Ukrainians try to launch this D-Day-type operation across the D-Phe, and it ended in total disaster. So I think a number of things to say, I think certainly with the British, and perhaps to some extent, even with the Americans, there is a constant underestimation of the Russians. I think this is a major factor that plays out again and again and again. And I think they always assume that if they come up with plans, their plans are going to work simply because they're well. Western plans, just as there's still the assumption that Western equipment is better than Russian equipment. But there is the further factor, which is that there is politics comes into play.

And I think that the media spin, which has been driven by governments, by the Defense Ministry in London, by the Department of Defense and the various propaganda people of the Biden administration if I can call it that in Washington, is that Ukraine is holding its own. The Russians aren't able to gain that much territory. They're only able to advance, if at all, very slowly. They are suffering horrendous losses when they do advance. The Russians are suffering far bigger losses than the Ukrainians are. This has been a narrative that you find every day, repeated day after day, right across the media. I mean, at the moment, it's, you know, the Russians, yes, the Russians are advancing,

but they're advancing very slowly and they're suffering three, four, five times more losses than the Ukrainians are for every advance. Now, you can't sustain that if the Russians start taking territory fast. And the result is that almost obliges you to hold on to territory, long beyond the point when it makes any sense to, because if territory starts to fall to the Russians quickly, that entire narrative becomes discredited and starts to collapse. So unfortunately, I suspect what is happening is, in Zelensky's case, there is always this predisposition to cling on to territory for as long as possible, as there's an amateur's approach

to war. And I think that instead of this being countered by professional advice from Washington and London, the Americans and the British are turning to reinforce this predisposition of Zelensky, because they're worried that if Ukraine starts to retreat in too many places, the entire narrative of the war will collapse. eventually reality is going to surface. It's going to catch up to all of these ridiculous narratives. I remember the narrative about the 2023 counter-offensive. You're right. The thinking, it's amazing that they were thinking. It's still, to this day, I think about, I'm like, what were these people thinking about that Russia would run away when the Ukraine military approach?

That was how they would reach the Sea of Oz off and in circle or get, within a firing range of Crimea, the Russian military would just run away at the site of the NATO weapons and the Ukraine military. What kind of dumb thinking is this? There's what they were strategizing. Articles saying exactly that thing, including one in foreign policy, I didn't remember, which said that, you know, the Ukrainians would break through in the first 24 hours. It was full of that kind of thing.

How long do you think these... them. And I don't want to ask that question. Do you think these narratives are going to seep into the Trump administration? Do you think they're going to corrode and corrupt the decision-making of the Trump administration, specifically the Pentagon? We have a new defense secretary. He was confirmed. Pete Heggsat. Do you think these narratives are going to find their way into his decision-making, into the decision-making of Marco Rubio. We also know that Blinken was very much involved in everything that was taking place in Ukraine, even at a military level.

We know that Victoria Newland at the State Department was strategizing in Project Ukraine at a military level. I mean, do you think all of these narratives are going to make their way into the Trump administration? We saw, unfortunately, we saw a glimmer of that when Trump was sitting down with Hannity and made the very dumb comment about Orezniks being, not Oresniks, sorry, a hypersonic missiles being stolen by Russia. And they were stolen under Obama and we're going to create this. I mean, these are the narratives that they're trying to move into the Trump White House. I get very worried that we're going to start hearing the Russian economies,

station masquerading as a country. Russia was going to take Kiev in three days, another Mark Millie lie, a lie. But people to this day still repeat it. Do you get a sense that this is trying to make its way into the Trump administration? Because if it does make its way into the Trump administration, you're going to get more of the same with what happened in Biden going forward with the conflict in Ukraine. I think it's a very mixed picture. I think some people, J.D. Vance, the vice president, based on things I have read, which he himself has written about the rule, I think Vance saw through all of this a long, long time ago. I remember that he wrote something, I think it was in the autumn 2023, in which he said, look, we've given all this huge amount of weaponry to Ukraine. All kinds of expectations and predictions were made about the 2020.

offensive and they didn't work out. We've got to re-take, take this through, understand that things are not working out in the way that people are saying that they are. So I think there are some people in the in the Trump administration who do have a much clearer eyed understanding of what is really happening on the battlefields. That's different. from the Biden administration, where everybody, like a chorus, used to repeat the same songs, I mean, the same four songs. So there's more discordance within the Trump administration. But we've seen that Donald Trump himself has gone along with some of these narratives.

On one level, he does believe, he does understand that this war is a slaughter, that tens of thousands of people are dying. that Ukraine is being devastated, that cities have been destroyed, that its men have been killed, that this is a disaster, that it can't win back. Eastern Ukraine, his lost territories, or any of that kind of thing. I mean, he does seem to understand that. But he also seems to be going along with a lot of the other part of the narrative that every Russian advance is paid for by the Russians with astronomic losses, which is crippling Russia and that their economy is in crisis as a result of all of that.

I'm afraid a lot of this narrative is seeping through. It's going to depend very much on what the new people, Hegg says at the DOD and, of course, Radcliffe at the CIA, and hopefully soon Tulsi Gabbard's as DNI. whether they're able to start correcting these narratives. Now, just to say, there's apparently been a meeting in Kiev of people from the Rada, the Ukrainian parliament. And one person who is starting to say as it is is none other than Kiri Labudanav. And he's apparently come along and said, look, if we don't get peace by the summer,

we might not, Ukraine might not get through the year. We are on the brink, in other words. Now, he has been responsible for spitting many of the fairy tales up to now, but he at least finally is starting to say it as it is. Maybe, maybe with new people in charge in Washington, of the, you know, the various key departments. And as I said, with the vice president who's openly skeptical. And I mean, he's made no sense.

Vance has made no secret of this. Maybe we will start to see the narrative finally challenged, you know, head on. I would say one thing about Higgs, that's, about whom I know very little, by the way. I mean, I should say this straight away. But he has actually been a combat soldier. He's actually gone out in battles and he's fought and he's had the bullets, as he said, flying over his head and he knows what it's like to be in action. And that does make me think that he's perhaps closer to the reality of actual war than the General Browns and the General Billis, the General Austins and all of these people who have been running things in the Pentagon under Joe Biden. So I hope so anyway.

I mean, let's hope so and see how it turns out. Yeah, Budanov. I know, it's incredible. The CIA is changing. Maybe this is a hint that the CIA has actually told him something. You know, we've got a new CIA, so don't expect the same support that you had under Biden. I don't know. Maybe that signal something.

Yes. Well, I hope so. because in the meantime, with every day that passes, you know, people's lives are sacrificed in a totally unnecessary way. Now, to be very clear, if Ukraine had fought a much more sophisticated and flexible war, it would have still ultimately led to the same outcome. Ukraine cannot defeat Russia. By now, virtually everybody except a few deluded people have as come to accept. But the disaster, the scale of the disaster would have been far less and Ukraine would be in a much stronger position now than the one it is in today as a result of these disastrous

policies that have been followed over the last two, three years. Yeah, well, my thinking, my point in this is that the media, the mainstream media of the West is very much to blame for putting out these narratives and propagating them because they were just flat out lies about the situation in Ukraine. And they kept the war going. If they had told the truth from the very beginning, which is that Ukraine is not winning, cannot win, will not win, then this war would have ended. much, much sooner. Well, if that had been what people had said in the media, if that had been what the media had said from the beginning, there wouldn't have been a war at all, because people would have understood that a war was something

that needed to be avoided at all costs, that the very survival of Ukraine would be put in jeopardy if it had happened. And we would have had an actual peace agreement before the war started. The trouble is that the media on the contrary, exactly as he said, has acted as a co-conspirator and accessory

in spinning these fake narrative stories. And some of them are still doing so, especially, if I may say so, in Britain, where they're playing an outrageous game. There's an utterly delusional editorial, for example, in The Guardian over the weekend. which is still clinging on to the narrative of some kind of victory of inflicting some kind of defeat on Russia and that kind of thing. When the disaster that we've just seen at Velikaya Novo Silka, which is, to be clear, it's only a staging point in even more disasters still to come.

I mean, this isn't going to stop with Velikaya Novo Silka. As you said rightly, there's Pakrovsk, this Czech. There's Joseph Yahr, which is a practice fall. Less fortified, Pakrosk, right? Yeah, absolutely far less fortified. I mean, it was never fortified, anything like the same level. Toretsk has probably already fallen. I mean, you know, we're going to see this story play out again and again and again at a faster

and faster rate with the Russians closing in on the Dnieper. And of course, if they cross the knee, both then God help Ukraine because I don't myself see how it would survive such a blood. Yeah. People have lost the ability to think. Russia was going to capture Kiev in three days with 40,000 troops. I mean, you know, the media, just to that, just in the video, the media can put out these these stupid lies and these dumb narratives, but a lot of people need to just take a step back and

also think about what they're telling you. Think about what they're telling you. Does this make sense what the Guardian is telling me? Does this make sense what the New York Times is telling me? It doesn't make sense. It doesn't mean. Yeah. All right.

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