The Duran Podcast - Venezuela regime change obsession

Episode Date: August 31, 2025

Venezuela regime change obsession

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is happening in Venezuela or with Venezuela. Trump is going after Maduro again, and there's a $50 million bounty on Maduro's head. And we also have ships, which are heading towards Venezuela or probably have arrived very close to Venezuela. and the excuse that the Trump White House is using is that they're going after the drug cartels. So you have Maduro and Venezuela once again now targeted by the Trump administration. He went after Venezuela in his first term with Juan Guaido. And it looks like he's taken a bit of a different approach this time around in order to get regime change of Venezuela. Or is this really about the drug cartels, Alexandria?

I don't think it is about the drug cartels. We're talking about three guided missile destroyers and amphibious warfare ship, the Iwo Jima. We're talking about a massive naval buildup. I mean, you don't actually use this kind of show of force against conventional drug smugglers and all of that kind of thing. I mean, you use Coast Guard, you use other types of aircraft. I mean, this is a military naval force. It's a massive show of force relative to what we're talking about. I mean, Venezuela has no military response to this, not in any effective way.

I understand that two of these destroyers are already in the region, and they're already patrolling the coastline around Venezuela as well. So, I mean, this is clearly a major military buildup. And of course, the point about the drug cartels is that some of the rhetoric that's coming from the administration is that Maduro is the illegitimate leader of Venezuela. He isn't the real leader of Venezuela at all. What he is is the head of a drug cartel, which has managed to take control of Venezuela. So this is being presented in some way as some kind of operation to perhaps liberate.

Venezuela from the control of the drug cartels. I mean, that could be the argument. I have to say, it all seems a little strange to me because I'm not sure how you conquer a country, that's what you do, what the plan is, or invade a country, if you only have a fleet, I mean, presumably there would need to be some kind of ground force. Colombia has sided, or at least it's president, has sided with Venezuela in criticizing this move. Unless there is some support within Venezuela, unless the Trump administration, the Trump-Wise House, is coordinating with someone inside Venezuela,

someone in the military maybe, which is possible, and we just don't know, then, as I said, this is a huge show of force and a very threatening deployment. But I can't really see how we can threaten, and Caracas and take over the country and defeat the Venezuelan army. I mean, I don't know how many troops a amphibious warship can carry, but I guess it's about 1,000 or maybe 2,000 or something like that. Not enough, I would have thought, to defeat and occupy a country the size and complexity

of Venezuela. But anyway, I mean, this is clearly targeting Maduro in some way. And it is such a big naval buildup that I don't think it's just intended to intimidate. I think there must be something else being prepared as well. And you're absolutely right. Trump is obsessed with Maduro. And of course, Marka Rubio, he's secretary of state, is obsessed with Maduro also. And it was Trump who launched the Guaido operation in Maduro during Trump's first term.

So it looks as if we're seeing a replay, but this time, as you said, correctly, taking an entirely different approach, a major military show of force and all of that. It carries risks. I don't think Latin American opinion will support this at all. I think most Latin American governments don't like Maduro at all. I don't think they like him in any conceivable way. But the United States, invading, because that's what it would amount to, a Latin American country in this way, conducting a military operation against a Latin American country is not going to be popular in Latin America with all spectrums of opinion there, extending from the left all the way to the right. There will probably be one or two people who will go along with it, like Millet in Argentina,

but other people will not like it. And of course, if it goes, wrong, then it could poison relations between the United States and other Latin American countries as well and get the United States involved in another whole set of problems. But anyway, we will see how this works out. But it's certainly an aggressive step, a series of steps. I wonder exactly what is being prepared here. Yeah, it's about Trump's ego and Venezuela's oil, right? He was the guy that pushed Guaido in his first term, and let's face it, that was pretty embarrassing for the Trump administration. It was humiliating the whole Juan Guaido fiasco. No doubt about it.

So Trump, so Trump wants to get at Maduro. Rubio obviously wants to get at Maduro, but above everything else, it's the oil. They want the oil. Absolutely. I mean, now, let's make a few observations here. I mean, Venezuelan oil is apparently so heavy and thick. It's mostly tar. I understand that there are refineries in the southern United States that are well designed to process this kind of oil.

But I gather it won't be able to replace oil altogether, you know, the oil of the United States uses altogether. And the Venezuelan oil industry itself is now in pretty bad shape. So it would probably take some years to get it back together again, if that's what this is all about. I presume that it is, I mean, otherwise it doesn't make a huge amount of sense because, I doubt that it takes two or three years. They'll probably say to themselves that it's worth doing anywhere. We'll just see how it works. But, you know, this is an aggressive move. And clearly, something is being prepared here.

you don't move this number of ships, warships, to the coast of Venezuela in this kind of way, without planning and intending something. But as I said, it will not go down well in South America. The Europeans, of course, will support it. Most of the rest of the world won't. But ultimately, what can the rest of the world do? What can China and Russia do? Or bricks, for that matter.

What can they do? Well, nothing. I mean, they've been very careful to keep Venezuela at arm's length. I mean, Venezuela has made many attempts to get into Bricks. The Chinese and the Russians have, I mean, Maduro came to the Kazan summit, for example, in Russia last year. But he was not granted Bricks membership or anything of that kind. Because Venezuela is just too far away. I mean, it just isn't the sort of place that the Russians and the Chinese can intervene directly to try and stop whatever has been done by the Americans there.

Brazil? Brazil could. Lula, of course, doesn't like Maduro. And, I mean, there is that issue. But having said that, I do think Lula would be happy about this. But would Brazil actively want to come to Maduro's defense? I don't think so. I would, if we are talking about a Latin American country, which the Americans, the Trump

administration might conceivably also want to invade, Cuba, Cuba has many friends, I mean, many real sincere, deep friends, including in Europe, by the way, and in Canada, as we know, but I don't think Venezuela does, or at least not in the same way. So, I think that the reality is, if there is a military confrontation between Venezuela and the U.S., Venezuela is mostly on its own. And I think people need to be realistic about this. You're basically saying that if the United States wants to get a regime change in Venezuela by use of force, then they could achieve it. Well, I think they, well, I mean, I mean, I mean, I mean, I say that. As I said, I mean, It depends what happens in Venezuela itself.

I get the sense that there's been an economic stabilization over the last couple of years. So, you know, we're not looking at an economy that is in free fall in the way that it was. I get the sense also that Madeira does retain some support in Venezuela. I don't know how extensive it is. I am not there. Up to now, the Venezuelan military has held together and has supported. supported Maduro, and there are some claims, and again, I can't verify these, that parts of it at least are well trained.

And of course, they would be fighting inside their own country. So it may not be a particularly straightforward operation. And to repeat again, this is a naval force that does seem to be a shortage of ground troops to back this. So I'm not quite sure what the military. plan is. But ultimately, obviously, if the United States prioritizes the overthrow of Venezuela's government and is prepared to invade the country and to overthrow the Maduro government and occupy Caracas and start doing those kind of things, the United States can do that. And

Venezuela cannot prevent it. It can, if it remains united, defend itself up. to a point, but it cannot defeat the United States. I mean, that is impractical. That is impossible. I mean, it would be controversial in Latin America. It would be controversial in the United States as well. I mean, some people, the Democrats in particular, would come, would oppose it. I mean, they would be bound to oppose it. It would be unpopular in the global South. But if the United States, States is focused on doing it, like the invasion of Iraq in 2003, there is nobody, realistically, who could prevent it. Would the Democrats oppose it? Well, I don't know. Some people might. And Iraq wasn't, I mean, if it's going to be like Iraq, it's not a good sign for the United States,

is it? No, it isn't. No, no, but I don't want to give, I don't want to take this too far because I mean, I don't know enough about the internal situation in Venezuela to know whether there would be the same kind of insurgency. And the dynamics are very different in Venezuela from the Middle East. But my simple point is this. The United States made a decision in 2002 that it was going to invade Iraq. Saddam Hussein's army was incapable of preventing the Americans, stopping the Americans from reaching Baghdad. And the same is true, I believe, of Maduro's army as well. Maybe it can put on a good fight, but if the United States concentrates enough resources,

it is still powerful enough to defeat Venezuela. And I mean, nobody, I think, not even Maduro himself, he seriously doubts that. I mean, that is the reality. But to repeat again, there is a shortage of ground troops so far. So unless there is something going on inside Venezuela, which we don't know, contacts with Venezuelan military officers and generals and, you know, that there's some kind of attack being prepared and then there will be a coup happening alongside that, which, I mean, there might be.

I mean, it's the kind of thing the CIA used to do really well. Unless there is something like that being prepared, then I'm not quite sure what this military operation is intended to achieve. assuming that, of course, that is what we're going to see, rather than just a show of force. But this is too big a deployment to be just a show of force. That's all I'm saying. It could be. It could be Trump's way of trying to put enough pressure on Maduro to try and get some sort of a regime change

or someone in the Maduro government, the hierarchy, the military hierarchy, to make a move on Maduro. I mean, that's what it could be to cause just internal chaos and strife. I think so. I mean, again, I would have thought if there was a plan to, as I said, send the American army into Caracas and you would need far more troops deployed to the area than we are currently seeing. You probably, I mean, I'm not an expert on these matters far from it. But I would presume also you would need some air power.

you would need to deploy an aircraft carrier. And so far we haven't seen that. We've seen guided missile destroyers. So, you know, missile strikes, certainly they can happen. There is an amphibious warfare ship, which perhaps can seize some territory. But this only makes sense as a military operation, I would have thought, if there is also some internal support or, maybe that's what the administration is counting on. Some people within the military in Venezuela perhaps have given some indications that they would go along with this and a strike of this kind happened.

But we'll see. Yeah. Okay. What do you make of the rumor? Just the final question. The rumors about get on drones being sent to Maduro. I don't believe it. I haven't seen any evidence of this at all.

No, I don't believe it. You don't believe it. Yeah. I don't believe either, yeah. I mean, it would be very difficult to do now, I would have thought. But, I mean, the time isn't there. And, you know, it's not just physically sending Geroon drones to Venezuela, but you need the infrastructure to use them, to launch them,

and you need the operators, the drone operators. And, of course, Venezuela doesn't have those. I mean, it's a sort of thing that could be done over, but you'd need at least a year, I would have thought, to prepare. And I don't think we are in that situation. Yeah. I just wonder if Bricks is regretting the Argentina choice and maybe they should have gone with Venezuela instead as they were trying to expand in the region. We're trying to get a better foothold in the region. But Brazil was pushing Argentina.

The Brazil was pushing Argentina. it was opposing Venezuela. And it's now supporting Colombia. Because Maduro and Lula really do not get on. I mean, there's bad blood between them. And as I said, I mean, even if Bricks had wanted to extend to Venezuela, Lula was an insurmountable obstacle to it. My sense was that the Russians sort of wanted some kind of relationship with Venezuela

because I think Maduro and Putin get on reasonably well. I think the Chinese were much less key because from their point of view, very difficult to establish a real foothold in Venezuela. And I think it was just out of their reach. I think if I have to say this, the country that the Russians and the Chinese are most focused on at the moment in Latin America, where they would want to establish a foothold and potential basis. And that kind of thing would be Cuba again. Yeah. I mean, that's much more likely. And Cuba has been sending representatives to BRICS summits and things of that kind.

But I think Venezuela, I think that it's just too far away. It isn't embedded in the international system in the way that Cuba is. And I just think it's just out of reach, basically, for Bricks. Yeah, the limitations of Bricks, yeah. There are limits, yeah. I mean, Bricks does have, this is a key thing to understand for the time being and for at least another decade, I would say. I mean, no other country has the ability to deploy military forces around the world in the

way that the United States does because the United States has 11 nuclear aircraft carriers, which is a vast fleet of guided missile destroyers and no Bricks country, not even China for the moment does. China has a very large navy, but it is focused on the Pacific. I mean, it is not global in its reach in any shape or form. And Russia's Navy, certainly not. I mean, they have a very big submarine force, but they don't have the naval power, the naval, you know, the surface fleet, the aircraft carriers and those sort of things, to be able to extend their reach to places like Venezuela.

I mean, that is the reality. And by the way, just to make one thing clear, because this comes up all the time, only the Russians have any plans to acquire that capability, not any time suit. They have a naval program underway. But as I understand it, there are no plans for aircraft carriers. Yeah. The BRICS countries, well, China and Russia are more about defending their position rather than projecting power. Exactly. Exactly. I mean, their focus is Eurasia. I mean, it's China, the Central Asian States, one belt, one road, India, North South, all of that. I mean, that is that cool territory. They want to be strong there. And they are strong there, as we see in Ukraine and, you know, in China. Taiwan and all these other potential places, career as well.

But Latin America is just beyond their reach. Yeah. Okay, we will end the video there, the duran.com. We're on Rumble and X in Telegram and go to the Duran shop. Pick up some merch like what we are wearing in this video update. There is a link in the description box down below. Take care.