The Duran Podcast - What's behind WaPo Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire?

Episode Date: August 19, 2024

What's behind WaPo Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire?

All right, Alexander, let's talk about an interesting article from the Washington Post, which claimed that for two months, mediated by Qatar, Russia and Ukraine were about to strike a deal on an energy infrastructure ceasefire, let's call it that, where Russia would stop going after Ukraine's energy infrastructure, which, according to. to Ukrainian officials at the Washington Post interviewed, is on the brink of collapse. They're not even sure if they could make it through the winter, if Russia were to go after the energy infrastructure this coming winter. And in return for Russia not going after Ukraine's energy infrastructure, Ukraine would

agree to stop trying to destroy the Zaporoje nuclear power plant. And according to the Washington Post, two months in the making, very close to to an agreement and all of this fell apart because of the Korsk operation. Now, the foreign ministry, Maria Zaharova, she came out with a statement and claimed that there was no such negotiation going on. What do you think is happening here? Right. Well, I've read Zaharva's statement.

I didn't find the denial fully convincing. And I think that some kind of negotiation was going on. And I suspect that it, you know, we were fairly close in theory to this agreement that the Washington Post is telling us about. Now, this is a very strange business because what you have said about the attacks on the two energy systems is absolutely correct. The Russians have devastated Ukraine's energy system. It is on the brink of total collapse. Everybody acknowledges this. The only power stations that are still working there are the nuclear power stations.

There are the transformers, the substations, where the electricity is re-channeled. The Russians apparently know where they are. If they strike those, and everybody expects that at some point they will, then the entire energy system collapse. collapses. Ukraine is in a total blackout. Nothing can move. The railways are stuck, the industrial plants are frozen, all of that. And of course, it would be a terrible disaster for the Ukrainian people. So the Russians have achieved this by their energy war. What have the Ukrainians achieved by their attacks on the Russian energy system? The answer is nothing. They've, you know, managed a few

drone attacks on a few refineries. That's produced a certain amount of smoke. The smoke has been reported by big events in the Western media. You know, it's all been talked about some, you know, big, consequential event. You actually look at Russian energy exports and the Russian energy complex inside Russia.

This has indented it. I mean, these are pinprick attacks on one of the most gigantic energy complexes on planet earth and you know a few drone attacks on one or two refineries creating the old fire isn't going to affect it so there is a massive mismatch why would the Russians agree to sit down and come to a deal like this it is massively helpful for ukraine because it means that if, you know, this deal had been reached because it means that, you know, electric power could have been provided to various parts of the Ukrainian energy system, that we would

probably have avoided a complete collapse. But the Russians, in economic terms, they would even notice this. Now, I think there's a giveaway, and that's, there's a, there's a, um, uh, a, A brief sentence, it would I understand as a follow-up article in the Washington Post, which says that the negotiations, to agree this ceasefire, were part of bigger negotiations towards achieving an overall end to the war itself. In other words, that there was moves to end the war. And this is where I think, looking at who the mediator was, which is the Emir of Qatar tells us something

because Qatar itself is not a BRIC state. I mean, that's, I think, something we need to understand. But it is one of the Gulf states. It's very friendly to Russia. It's very friendly to the other BRIC states. It's had, by the way, fairly good relations with Iran for a fairly long time. So I think that the Emir of Qatar was acting

as part of what was a BRIC's peace initiative. And over the last couple of months, it's been fairly clear to me that some of the BRIC states, China, Brazil, India to some extent, were all trying to get all of these, you know, the Ukrainians and the Russians moving forward towards some sort of negotiation process. One can discuss why the BRIC states would be interested in doing that. Just park that for the moment. I think this was a BRICS initiative. The BRICS wanted an end to the war. Probably they wanted it on Putin's terms. In fact, I'm going to suggest that that speech that Putin made about two months ago

to the Russian foreign ministry saying, we can have peace, the Ukrainians pull out of the four regions and agree to become a neutral country again, I think that was done in response to pressure from some of the BRICS countries to find some route to end the war. And I think the BRIC states have been telling the Ukrainians, this is a good deal. Go for it. Let's start discussions. Let's talk about prisoner exchanges. That's always underway.

Let's talk about ending the energy system. Let's get negotiations going and let's move towards agreeing this deal. Putin says is on the table. It's better for us because we don't ultimately want to see Ukraine completely collapse. That's something that would be a shock to the entire international system. It might be something we have trouble justifying to the UN. Maybe ultimately we'll want to see some kind of a change of government in Kiev, but we would prefer to see Ukraine survive in some form and we're prepared to help you. And we got all kinds of statements from Zelensky telling, saying, you know, that the Ukrainians were interested in negotiations, that they

were going to invite the Russians to the next peace conference. The Ukrainian foreign minister Dimitro Kulabor went to China, met with Wang Yi in Guangdong, had discussions with the Chinese, told the Chinese, yes, look, we are ready for people. peace talks, Modi, the Indian Prime Minister, supposed to be going to Kiev at some point this month. It's not clear whether he's going, by the way, at the moment. There's sudden silence about this.

And then, of course, what happens is they pull off the Kusk affair. Now, I, if you follow the Chinese media, to some extent, by the way, the Indian media as well, they are furious about this. They see this as an astonishing,

act of bad faith, the Russians say, well, look, we can't negotiate with these people. You've just had an example of what they're really all about. They're after power stations, nuclear power stations, they're after attacks in our territory. They talk peace. They're preparing for war. And we can't possibly even consider talks in this kind of circumstance. So all of this, all of this patient work that's been done over months has now fallen apart. And I could suggest that the Ukrainians have never been serious about this negotiation track either. That's what the Russians are in effect say. I don't think the Western powers were ever keen on it either.

The Western powers want regime change in Moscow. So that's why they support the course of cooperation. They hope came the power station. That would create a crisis in Moscow. The Ukrainians probably want the same thing because the kind of concessions that Putin is demanding and the bricks were supporting are just impossible for them conceptually. And I think what the Ukrainians were doing, as they have done repeatedly,

is that they were stringing the Russians and the brick states along. I think this is the whole story of what's happened. over the past few weeks. They were pretending to talk peace, even as they were preparing this dash into Kursk and the seizure of the nuclear power plant. Yeah, that's why when Putin put out the statement a few days after the Kursk incursion,

Putin was basically saying, as you said, that we can't negotiate with these guys, the Olensky regime. They've actually changed their rhetoric about the Alenski regime quite markedly. I mean, it's now the, it's now criminal. a gang or they're calling it a criminal junta or criminal regime. I mean, they're using the word criminal now. Putin's calling them criminal.

There's not Medvedev, Putin, Patrushchev. And this has been, we've seen a significant shift in how the Putin administration is now branding the Olensky government. But when Putin was talking about how they can't negotiate with Ukraine, that statement wasn't for the West. that statement wasn't for the Russian people. That statement was directed at Bricks, China, and India, Brazil, and South Africa. It was basically Putin saying, you know, we played along.

We said, okay, we'll try to negotiate in good faith. We'll try to get an end to this conflict. You guys, Bricks, you want us to end this conflict. We understand that. We're part of the Bricks community. we'll try to accommodate your your wishes as to how you would like this conflict to wind down. But you see, these guys aren't serious. They strung you guys along.

They've been stringing the entire world along for two years. We have the Kusk invasion. So, you know, no more telling us to negotiate with Ukraine. I think basically that was Putin's message to China, to India, to Brazil, South Africa. stop telling us to negotiate with Ukraine. You can't negotiate with these guys. So we need to finish this through military means. And I think now the bricks finally understand. And, you know, just one final point, when everyone talks about how Russia is going slow, they're going slow with this. Why doesn't Putin take the gloves off? I think one of the biggest forces of restraint on Putin

and on Russia has been bricks. Specifically China, my guess would be China has been restraining Russia to a very large extent, not to go hard. This is exactly so. We've been saying this for years, by the way. I remember we discussed this way back in 2022, that for the Russians to go all in and all out and try and defeat and conquer Ukraine would be a very, very difficult cell

to their friends and allies who would find it a very, very difficult cell themselves. They would be open to all kinds of charges and criticisms. and it's not something that states around the world, I mean the West does this and the West isn't bothered, but countries like China, India, South Africa, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, which claim to be pillars of the international system and international law, don't want to seem to be doing the same thing as the West does. on the contrary the Chinese always say when there's a fire we try and put it out

we're not people who pour oil gasoline on the fire and the way the West does and I think that this isn't just a rhetorical pose I think all of these governments mean it very seriously as far as they're concerned Ukraine is an independent state it's a member of the United Nations it's a country therefore

that has a you know an existence. They don't want to see it simply extinguished. And I think the Russians have had a massive job educating and explaining to their allies what they're doing. And they've done it masterfully well. They've managed to keep the Chinese and the Indians

and all of the others on side. They've managed to win over more and more countries around the world. They've managed this in Africa, where the Ukrainians have helped them by bragging them. they've been helping jihadi fighters attack the Malian armed forces. But this is not something that could be done easily and simply. And I think it's massively affected how the Russians have conducted this whole operation right from the beginning.

I think people hugely underestimated. I think this is the last, by the way, a serious attempt at negotiations. And I get to say something else. my own sense, and coming back to what you say, is that the Russians, who of course haven't just been strung along by the Ukrainians for the last two years. They've been strung along by the Ukrainians, certainly since the Maidan events of 2014. But probably they would say since ever since all the way going back to Ukrainian independence in 1991, the Russians, I think, are really.

that they're able to turn around and tell their friends, look, we can't seriously be expected to negotiate with these people. We've tried time and time again, and it's been hopeless. And by the way, if you go back to Sahara's comments, she says that very thing. She says we've met any number of efforts to come to understandings with these people. And it's always failed. on behalf of or at the requests of China and India and South Africa and Brazil and Bricks.

Russia has been trying to define common ground with Ukraine at the request of the Bricks countries. And so the question is, I mean, Kaluba in China was stringing China along, right? Modi's going to travel to Ukraine so Modi can get strung along. That's what's going to happen to Modi. Yeah. Yes. Zelensky's going to string him along. Will Modi fall for it? Maybe.

No. Who knows? But, you know, are the bricks now finally going to see things the way Russia sees it? Or are they going to continue to fall for Zelensky's talk about the Second Peace Summit and the collective West's talk about trying to find a way to end the conflict. I mean, you know, is Bricks going to continue to fall for this? Judging by what I'm reading in the Chinese media, the Chinese are not. I think the Chinese have had enough.

You know, the Chinese seem to me to be absolutely furious about this. Other states, not necessarily parts of the Bricks, like the African states, they've also, I get the sense, had enough. Modi is in a complex position because he's under quite a lot of American pressure, We did a program recently discussing the coup that's just happened in Bangladesh. He's got to think about the Americans. He doesn't want to completely break with the Americans by seeming too obviously to take the Russian side on Ukraine. But I think that any idea that he previously had of setting himself as some kind of a mediator in this conflict is probably now gone.

I don't think he's interested in that anymore. And he might, for all I know, go to Kiev to meet with Zelensky because that gives him an alibi when the Americans are angry with him. Remember he went to Moscow a couple of weeks ago, directly after he was re-elected, had this incredibly positive and very big meeting with Putin. The Americans are furious about it. So he might go to Kiev to buy himself some cover. But I don't think anything more will come of it.

I don't think anything more will come of it now. I think even Modi understands that this has run its course. Final question. Why can't China, let's use China as an example, why can't China just tell the United States to leave them alone when the United States puts pressure on China to stop funding Putin's war machine, right? In the narrative, stop sending chips to,

to Russia, which is what the U.S. constantly does with China. How come China can't say now to the United States, you know what, U.S., leave us alone, stop harassing us because Kaluba was in Beijing, he met with our foreign minister, he talked about a peace plan, we know he was lying because one week later the whole Kurska incursion happened. So just leave us alone now. Stop lecturing us, go away. How many can't say that to the United States?

Now, in other words, hasn't the Kursk operation also damaged the U.S. is, I want to say diplomacy, but it's not really diplomacy, lecturing to India and China to stop supporting Russia? Oh, absolutely. Of course it has, and the Chinese are going to say that. The Chinese have been telling the Americans, look, we're not, you know, our relationship with Russia is a bilateral matter between us and the Russians. you can come along and you complain about it as much as you like but it's not going to make any difference we're just going to go ahead and develop our own relationship with the Russians they've never budged on that

and they're certainly not going to do so now but the big constraint for the Chinese the thing that has always been the complicating matter for them is Taiwan they need they've always wanted to put themselves in a position where their case over Taiwan is ironcast. So Taiwan, part of China,

it's not independent, it's part of Chinese sovereign territory. They don't therefore want to seem like they are supporting a war of secession by eastern Ukraine from Ukraine. That was one of the original construction. They gradually slowly shifted away from that because they say that it's not really about that anymore. It's about Russia's security.

But they don't want then to go on and say, well, look, the only way to solve that problem is the complete conquest by Russia or the whole of Ukraine. Because again, that looks from a legal point of view somewhat dangerous. It might imply that any Chinese war to bring Taiwan back under Chinese sovereign control is also a Chinese war of conquest. They need to be careful about how to frame these things. So given that they're saying this is all about Russian security and about the West's pressure on Russia, any deal that brings an end to the war,

but also satisfies Russian security interests by keeping Ukraine out of NATO, for example, and preventing the basing of American troops in Ukraine is also attractive to China. So remember, China has its own interests, Russia has its own interests. They are not identical. And the Russians have to think about that, just as the Chinese do. All right, we will end it there. The durand.locals.com. We are on Rumble, Odyssey, Bitche, Telegraph,

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