The Duran Podcast - What's next after Sinwar's death

Episode Date: October 20, 2024

What's next after Sinwar's death

all right alexander let's talk about the uh the announcement from the idf that uh they have killed uh sinwar the the leader of uh of hamas uh the the number one target yeah israel has also said he was the number one target um for the defense forces uh people can find the the video of of his uh of his killing it's about a 40 50 second video that israel released yeah israel released it, it's a drone that follows him, and that finds him. And anyway, people can find that video all over social media. But I think the main question that we need to discuss is, is what changes now? Does anything change with Sinwar's death? What does this mean for Israel,

for Netanyahu, for the conflict in Gaza, for the conflict that's looming with Iran, or nothing really changes at all? It entirely depends on Israel and on the decisions that are made in Israel now. Now, the Israelis have achieved what for them was a big thing. I mean, they built up Sinwa, Yahyah Sinwa, the military leader of Hamas, who then became the political leader of Hamas, a dangerous man, I mean, from their point of view, the architect, the mastermind of the attack on the 7th of October, was somebody that they absolutely wanted to eliminate.

Anyway, he's now dead. And moreover, importantly, he was not assassinated. He was not assassinated. It was not exactly the same as what happened with Nasrallah and with all of these other people. He was killed in a gunfight. So there isn't that issue, you know, of extrajudicial killings, which some, I mean, nobody in Israel cares.

but some people might care about. So anyway, so he's dead. Now, they've got the mastermind, you know, the person at the heart of this whole business, the person who started it all in October last year. So this now gives them, if they have the wisdom to take it, the opportunity to stop.

It's their last opportunity. opportunity, in my opinion, to stop. They can say, look, we went into Gaza. It took us a long time to get there. There was a humanitarian problem, all of that. But we got Sinwa in the end. We've achieved that. We've destroyed the most dangerous and violent man within the organization. So you could stop. You can now move towards a ceasefire because you've achieved this important victory, which, from an Israeli point of view, it is an important victory. It's a big win. They can take the win.

They can say, we've killed Sinwa. Now is the time for us to have a ceasefire in Gaza, to get the hostages released, to have a ceasefire in Lebanon, to call off all these wars with Iran. We've got Sinwa, we've got Nasrallah, we've humiliated it. run through all of these attacks that we've done, we've shaken Hezbollah to the core, and we have

eliminated the most dangerous and the most violent man within Hamas. If they do that, then I would say they come out ahead, at least in presentational terms. They're able to end this war in Gaza, which has not gone especially well. It's been a terrible war of attrition. It's led to court cases against Israel in the Hague. It's led to massive protests against Israel around the world. It's led to huge criticism of Israel in many, many places. And it has drawn Israel into further wars in Lebanon

and potentially against Iran itself, putting enormous stress on Israeli society, on the Israeli economy, and all of these things. They can now call a stop. Say that they've won. Netanyahu has achieved his objective. He can call elections.

He's got a good chance of winning. His poll ratings have improved since the death of, especially since the death of Nazrallah. Now they're likely to improve even further. He could call elections. He could probably win those elections. He's secure in place.

So that's one thing the Israelis can do. If they do that, then the death of Sinwa is important, and it might in time lead to changes within Hamas and perhaps to open the way to more constructive negotiations. The other thing that they can do, and I'm afraid this is what they are going to do, is that they're going to take encouragement from this thing, they're going to press on with their war against Hezbollah

in Lebanon. They're going to press on with their war against Hamas in Gaza. They're going to plunge on with their operation against Iran. If they do that, what they're going to find is that they've eliminated Sinwa, but he will be replaced by someone else. Instead of this death of Sinwa being a full stop that Israel itself can put, it will simply be a punctuation mark on a narrative that will eventually lead us to disaster. That's my view about this.

Yeah, Reuters, they're running an article saying Netanyahu promises more war-dashing hopes after Hamas leader killed. And Netanyahu said this is the beginning of the end in a statement. So he's not saying this is the end. No. He's saying this is the beginning of the end. So it looks like you're right on your assessment. Do you think it was a smart idea for the IDF to release the video of Sinwar? No, I don't.

I was thinking about this from a... Yeah. I mean, they could have released the evidence, maybe a photo. Yeah. But the video has me, from Israel's perspective, from the IDF's viewpoint, it probably wasn't a good idea to release that video. Because I think it's not getting the reaction that they were probably hoping for. No, absolutely. He's absolutely not getting the reaction that they're hoping for.

For one thing, it shows him fighting, which, do you want to do that? I mean, you know, I would have thought that was not. not what they wanted. And I don't understand why they did it, by the way. There's something slightly macabre about it also. But I think anyway, it sends out the wrong message. And I would have left alone. I mean, the fact is he's dead. There's no real, I mean, they're not going to be any serious denials to the fact that he is dead. Why you need to produce a video, I just don't see. But now, I mean, coming back to your other point, I think they are going to press on. I think all the evidence is that Netanyahu is determined to press on, because Netanyahu and even more

some other members of his cabinet, obviously they cared about Sinwa. Obviously, they cared about Gaza. But their overriding obsession continues to be Iran. And they want to pursue this war and to get this war against Iran. And I think that is a disastrous, tragic mistake. And it means that in a few weeks or months' time, when we are in that war with Iran, everybody's going to think about Sinwa anymore. As I said, he will be replaced by someone else. All of these organizations always find someone else to take the place of whoever is killed. Always remember people like Sinwa almost certainly.

I mean, he specifically, almost certainly you that one day he would be killed, that the Israelis would come after him and that he would be killed. He's that kind of a man. He has also the theological beliefs that he would be killed one day. He probably sees this, he probably saw this rather, as a kind of martyrdom. There are other people who think like him. So there's not going to be any shortage of people prepared to take his place. and it's purely an assumption that there'll be more moderate than he is.

So this is not going to change Iran's calculations either, I imagine, going forward, the death of Sinwar, they're not going to change anything. Well, the Iranians are probably, the Iranians are probably very happy just to say this. I mean, they're never going to say this, but I think deep down they're probably relieved that Sinwa has gone. I mean, as well as they were concerned, Sinwa launched this attack on Israel on the 7th of October last year and landed Iran in huge trouble. Why would they be supportive or sympathetic to someone like Sinwa? I've said it many times.

Iran was on a roll before the 7th of October, 2023. They were joining bricks. Their economy was recovering and booming. They had good relations with Russia, they had good relations with China, they made trade agreements with India, everything was working for them. And along comes Sinwa, you know, somebody who has his own ideas and who launches this attack on Israel. All of the evidence suggests without informing Iran in advance. And what did the Iranians find? Ever since then, they've been under relentless pressure and the war is looming against them. So they're not going to miss Sinwa. And it's not

going to affect their calculations in the slightest. What has happened to him? They have to worry about what the Israelis are going to do to them. And what Israel is now, what did to someone like Sinwa, I don't think they're going to hold Brexit. breath and think about it for more than a microsecond. All right. Final question. Not off topic, but a little bit, a little bit off topic, but connected to Iran. Trump was on the Patrick Bet David podcast the other day, and he was asked by the host about

regime change in Iran, the host of the podcast. I'm paraphrasing what he said. He said that Iran, it would be, would it be good to, to get regime change in Iran, maybe get Iran back to the times when it was a monarchy and it was doing so well as a monarchy. I don't know, okay. But anyway, that's what he said to Trump. And Trump, he appeared negative to regime change in Iran.

He actually said, we can't get totally involved because we can't even run ourselves. He made it seem as if I don't even want to talk about regime change in Iran. We shouldn't get involved in Iran. We can't even take care of our own problems. What do you make of that statement? First of all, I thought that was extremely interesting in and of itself. And it also shows something else about Donald Trump, which I think people need to remember, which is that he does learn.

Because once upon the time, back in 2018, he was openly advocating regime change in Iran. I think he's come to realize, as many people have in the United States. States, including Harris's national security advisor, that in the Middle East, regime change has been a complete disaster whenever it has been carried out by the United States. So I think Trump understands that. And I think that in the later period of his time as president, he was already beginning to understand that. And he was already taking steps to speak with the Iranians on various things, as he did after the assassination of Soleimani, for example.

And I suspect if he becomes president again, that's again what he's going to do. Donald Trump wants to focus on the United States. He doesn't want problems in the Middle East. He doesn't want problems with the Russians in Europe. He's got lots of things he wants to do in the United States. And this time, I think, he understands that getting distracted and pulled along

doing these other things is not going to work out well for him. I think, you know, give the man he's due. He actually sits down and thinks about these things and learns. Yeah. All right.

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