The Duran Podcast - Wider Middle East War. US, UK Strike Yemen (Live)

Episode Date: January 12, 2024

Wider Middle East War. US, UK Strike Yemen (Live)

Okay, we're live, Alexander. How are you doing this Friday morning? Well, I'm personally doing very well. I'm not so sure about the state of the world, but I personally am doing very well. And I think it's always great to be back on the Duran and discussing programs, even the topics that we're going to discuss today is, I think, hardly a cheerful one. Let's really like that. I could almost swear like four or five in the morning,

I woke up to noises of like, it felt like I was listening to planes and to just loud sounds. And I woke up and I'm very close to everything that's going on. I mean, 20 minute flight, 25 minute of flight. And actually Cyprus is where the UK is launching the strikes on Yemen. And I don't know if it was my imagination or what, but I woke up and I could swear I was hearing things and and I opened up my my notebook and got the news of what's going on. So that's what we're going to talk about. U.S., UK, strike on Yemen.

Alexander, you have another show to get to in about 30 minutes. So this will be a short live, but we did want to do a live and update everybody as to what's going on and how we think it's going to unfold. So, Alexander, you've got 30 minutes. Just let me know when we need to cut out, all right? Yes. U.S., UK, striking at Yemen. What are your thoughts?

Well, the first thing to say is it's interesting that you've identified the two countries that carried out these strikes. U.S. UK. Now, there is supposed to be an international coalition operating in the Red Sea, but notice that this international coalition has reduced in terms of actual air strikes, missile strikes, to just two countries. No one else actually wants to become involved. So all of these other ships, all these other warships, they're going around from, you know, the Netherlands, from Denmark, from whomever, but they're not actually participating in this military operation. Just the Americans with their invariable sidekick, the British. And, you know, dare I say it, those of you

who know Spanish literature, it's a little bit like Don Quixote and San Juanza. They're always together tilting at windmills because this is what this is it, what this is going to be about, because all of the places that they have attacked,

all of the places that they have just launched missile strikes at and bombed are places which have been bombed many, many times by, the Saudis and their allies in long, long war. They fought against the Houthis. One particular air base. And, you know, I remembered this and I checked this. One particular air base, which the Americans of the British have launched this attack against Houthi base. The Saudis have attacked 15 times with American Air 15 fighter jets, by the way, you know, bombers and all that. And the Saudis have announced on three occasions. just been destroyed. Three. So we're going to send more missiles, more bombs, attacking these

incredibly hardened Houthi positions, which of course are controlled by the Houthis, one of the most, one of the toughest, most battle-hardened military forces in the world. I mean, they fought a long, prolonged war against the Saudis. They were ultimately victorious in that war, despite all the help that the Saudis got from the US. One of the things, by the way, the termed the Saudis against the US is the fact that all that American help wasn't able to succeed against the Houthis. And now the United States and Britain are taking the Houthis on. And to what end? Because I don't think the Houthis are going to try and attack American warships in order to sink. And they might, you know, lob the odd missile towards a warship.

But I think they know perfectly well that these warships are well defended and they can't continue to do damage. But I also think that they will continue to strike at these commercial vessels that are going through the Red Sea. In fact, they're pretty much saying as much. So we launch missile and bomb strikes against the Houthis. if those missile and bomb strikes don't achieve their results, if they hootie attacks on commercial shipping continue as before,

what does the United States and Britain do? Well, they presumably go on doing the same thing. They go on launching more and more missile strikes, more and more bomb attacks against the hoothies. We're into a pattern of escalation. There's already some words that in order to deal with the problem of the Houthis, you really need to send ground troops into Yemen. The idea of the United States sending ground troops into Yemen in an election here is,

I think it is inconceivable. So we are trapped again into a cycle of escalation in the Middle East, which cannot achieve its objective. and which is ultimately going to be self-defeating for Britain and the United States. But, you know, we discussed this many times, in many programmes, we've discussed the intense urge that there is among some people in the United States to start some kind of military action of some sort, not to look with diplomatic solutions.

The key diplomatic solution to this problem is to try to negotiate negotiate a ceasefire in Gaza, get the Iranians to put pressure on the Houthis, find some kind of way forward. But we're not going to do that. So we're going to launch these missile strikes and these bomb attacks. We've talked about it many, many times, start a pattern of escalation in the Middle East, which is not going to be to the West's or the United States advantage. But as night follows day, it was what was going to happen. We've discussed it in program after program. You said it many times.

When you have all these warships in the Middle East, in all these troops in the Middle East, American troops, the temptation to use them becomes absolutely irresistible. And now, of course, they've been used. And of course, this is a stepping stone towards the ultimate target. Because I said, idea of sending troops to Yemen, then inconceivable in an election year. Real ability to prevent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.

Impossible for me to see how this can do that. So all the usual people will say, well, you know, we're attacking the Houthis, but we're attacking the wrong target. The Houthis are only a tentacle of the octopus. We have to strike at the head of the octopus. We need to launch that strike on Iran. And now we are on the first step towards that point. Yeah, that's what this is all about is getting that conflict with the round.

The problem that I see with all of this, listening to various analysts, Alexander, who say this could be a one-off. This is just to show the U.S. is power and to show that the Biden White House is not messing around when it aims to protect the vessels that pass through the Red Sea. the problem with all of this is what you said. The Houthis, Yemen, they're not going to stop blockading the Red Sea ships that they want to go after. They're going to go after them. This is not going to deter them. So what does the Biden White House do when after this strike in a couple of days or a week or so another Maris cargo ship goes to pass through the Red Sea and the Houthis sees that ship or prevent that ship from moving? through the blockade.

What does the Biden White House do? If it doesn't do anything, it looks weak and stupid. It's going to have to escalate. It's going to have to once again launch strikes against Yemen. They've boxed themselves in. The Biden White House has completely boxed itself in to escalation, a spiral of escalation. They're not going to be able to get out of this. And that's exactly what the neocons want and wanted.

and I have a feeling, a hunch that I don't want to say this is what Russia, Iran, Bricks, China wanted, but I have this sense which is telling me, you know what, they're probably looking at this going, the U.S. is going to get bogged down here as well. This is going to play to our advantage. This is exactly what they're thinking. And obviously, they're not working. working to make it happen. The Iranians have been quite, you know, apparently sending every conceivable signal that they can to the Americans, to the Israelis even, that they don't want

an escalation. But of course, it's not within their control, whether the Americans escalate or not. The Iranians can talk to the Houthis, but they have only a certain amount of influence over the Houthis. I think people who think of Houth, the Houthis, who write about the Houthis, as an Iranian proxy. You to take a step back and ask themselves this question. This is, as I said, one of the toughest, most well-organized, most battle-hardened military organizations in the world. Is it really just going to accept audits from Tehran? Why would it do that? I mean, it has its own industrial plants. It has its own capacities. It has its own capacities. It's, It's got its thousands of fighters.

It's got its support base in Yemen. They are, to some extent, allied with Iran, but undoubtedly they have their own agency. So, yes, the Iranians can talk to the Houthis. They can tell them exercise restraint. But why would the Iranians even want to do that now in a kind of a way of thinking? Because, as you correctly say, the Americans are not offering any Iran, any incentive. to work towards that kind of de-escalation. Why would the Iranians damage their relations

with the Houthis by putting heavy pressure on the Houthis to stop their attacks? And what if the Houthis were to say no? So the Iranians are going to sit back and they're going to let this thing play out and they're going to build up their defenses. And they know that they're in the region. They know that they have most of the support

of most of the people in the region. They know they have the support of the people in the region. have the Russians and the Chinese at their back. And I suspect that to some extent, some people in Tehran are saying, bring it on. Bring it on. We've been living with this thing, this threat of an American attack now for, what, 20 years? Bring it on. Let's finally have it and have it out there and sort it out. And then, you know, we're now stronger than we've ever been, more confident that we've ever been. We've got lots of friends and allies in the Middle East. The Americans will be seen attacking us in effect in alliance with Israel, which is doing all these things in Gaza that

has made people across the Middle East so angry. This is the best moment for us for the Americans to attack. And as to the Russians and the Chinese, they have been the big beneficiaries geopolitically of every single American war in the Middle East. Americans have bogged themselves down in all these wars. They've tied down thousands of tens of thousands of troops, huge parts of their fleet. They've been in conflict after conflict in the Middle East ever since the first one in the early 1990s against Saddam Hussein. And which countries have benefited most of that? China, first and foremost, because the Americans have been distracted by all of these conflicts,

and to a great extent, Russia as well. And now the Russians, of course, are conducting their military operation in Ukraine. The United States today said that it is now ceasing further military deliveries, the deliveries of military equipment to Ukraine. You could take that with a big pinch of sort, but that's what they're saying. The reality is, given what we now know about the limits of American military factories, the industrial complex, in the United States, if the United States gets bogged down in a conflict in the Middle East, it's not going to have spare capacity to keep army in Ukraine. And besides, if American troops, American warships are involved in the conflict, the American people are not going to be interested in Ukraine, which is exactly what

Russia wants. So you're absolutely right. All of these three countries, Iran, China, Russia, they've not created the situation. They haven't wanted this situation, but they are perfectly well aware of how it plays out to their advantage. Yeah, the price of oil. That's going to price. price of oil, price of oil going up, going up, a big, an important election in Taiwan this weekend, which is likely to increase tensions between China and Taiwan and the United States is stuck in the Middle East. Yeah. You know, something you said, we'll get to questions and we'll try to answer the questions before you have to cut out, Alexander, to go to your next program.

but I just have one more question for you and then we'll get to the questions from the viewers. You mentioned a while back in a video that we did, how we were talking about how the UK continues to escalate with Russia with regards to Ukraine. And you kind of, I don't want to say you gave a warning. You sounded the alarm to the UK government, let's say. You know, don't continue to push Russia

the way you're pushing Russia and Ukraine because there's escalation in the Middle East and in the Red Sea and the UK is heavily involved there. And if escalation breaks out in the Red Sea, well, you know, there's there's a lot of ways for Russia to hit back at the UK. I'm not talking militarily, but different ways that that Russia can take advantage of the UK being bogged down along with the United States in the Middle East and the Red Sea. Do you still stand by that, that, that, do you think that's a bit of possibility? Oh, absolutely. Of course I do. I mean, you know, look at, why is Britain involved in all of this when France is not? Germany's not. Italy's not. Spain is not. I mean, they're not

conducting these strikes. They're not helping the United States with missile strikes. They're not directly involved. Britain, of course, has to be. And we are involved in a major conflict with Russia in Ukraine. The Britain is far too deeply involved in that conflict, you know, for its own interests. I mean, it is most unwise. I mean, the belligerence of the British towards the Russians is astonishing and very dangerous. Look at the state of Britain's armed forces. We're down to 40 tanks. We have about 20,000 infantry that we can deploy. I mean, which is less than the Russians have in one place in Ukraine, which is of D'EFQa. We are apparently now largely out of missiles that we can send to Ukraine.

We're our ammunition. We've given Ukraine all our self-propelled howitzers. And yet we're now starting something else in the Red Sea. Where the Russians have a presence, they are on very good terms with Ethiopia, not very far away. Bear in mind that, you know, Ethiopia is just joining. the bricks china is there also in jibouti the chinese and the russians are there they've got long-standing connections with iran now becoming deeper and stronger all the time the houthis have made it very clear you know they're letting russian ships go through the red sea they're letting chinese ships go through the red sea which shows you the nature of the connections

so yes we are putting art men our ships in the line of fire to what useful end I cannot see. The extraordinary pattern of British foreign policy is that the weaker Britain becomes militarily, the more belligerent and aggressive we behave. And this seems to me beyond reason. All right, Alex. I'd just quickly one further point.

In Yemen, Britain ought to be particularly careful about becoming involved because Yemen was a British colony. The British ran a military base in Aden right up to the late 1960s, and they got involved in a very bitter and ugly insurgency against the people of Yemen in the 1960s. as I can just remember, and I met people who were veterans of this, and Britain lost. That was the time when Britain was militarily far more powerful than it is today. So we are coming back to Yemen where people do not remember us kindly, and that's understating it,

and where we have previously been defeated. How stupid is that? All right, we've got like 10, maybe 15 minutes to get through these questions, so let's try get as many questions answered as possible. Hopefully we can get through all of the questions. Irish partisan says full support to the Palestinian and Yemeni resistance. Thank you for that. Radio Constantinopley says, do Greek ship owners really lose from all that? Of course they don't. I mean, this is the other thing. I mean, you know, the Red Sea, all that will happen. I mean, if the Red Sea is completely closed, it's happened before,

by the way, it happened in the early 70s, the late 60s, early 70s, the Suez Canal was closed because of one of the Arab-Israeli wars. And people just get around, you know, the Cape of good hope. They get around Africa. Of course, it increases shipping costs. But why should that be bad for the ship owners? They will define from this. Don't worry. I know these people. I know how tough and clever they are. They will find ways around. They will come out on top from this. Yeah. Sparky says, go Yemen, fight the power. Sangeva says there was some indignation against India for not condemning Israel. What people have to understand is that India did support Arabs in the past, but they supported Pakistan, whereas Israel was loyal, so India prefers

neutrality. Absolutely. And I think, can I just say, that is India acting according to its national interests. And that is what states should do. Why should India become involved in this conflict? What's it got to do with India at the end of the day? Stay out. That's what Britain ought to be do. Cloud says six hours a.m. two big storms this week, a lot of snow. High for Quebec, Canada, great team, the best. Merci. Thank you for that. Iman News. Thank you for that. Super sticker. Cress Cutter says they had to hit something. It didn't matter what it was because they have been thumping their chests trying to look tough. It's beyond a joke at this point. The Yanks don't have the balls for a ground war. You're completely right on every point. Thank you for that. Very good comment.

Arland Nixon, I wonder who ordered the strike. Yeah, good question. Biden? Lloyd Austin. In the hospital, Lloyd Austin. You know, good question. Thank you, Garland. Who wrote up that statement of Biden's?

I mean, even right. Yeah. Great show this morning as well, Garland. It was on the coverage of the conflict very early. So go check the show. from Garland that he put out earlier this morning. My time. Valerie says, does Ellensky really took Coke? I've heard many imply it, including this channel. Also, is there a way to contact you, gentlemen, directly? Well, I mean, there are always to contact. Just, you know, you can find

us through the Jim. You can find this, yeah. Yeah, you can find us. As to Elenski's various habits, I think that there is a huge amount of information out there, which you can track. down. I don't think there's any real doubt about this action. Sanjava says successive Indian governments have tended to move away from Nehru's pacifism and idealism. It's more about real politic now in India. Most younger elites see Nero's middle foreign policy as too idealistic and a failure especially in regards to the Middle East. Oh, absolutely. Though I should say that Nero was one of the biggest creators of non-alignment

and India has stuck with that. But it is, I think, maneuvering in this very complex and very difficult world that we have with great skill. And they have no interest in getting into a quarrel with the U.S., but they manage to maintain their good relations with Russia. They have a difficult relationship with China, but I think they're managing it by no means badly, and I think I would say that, and their influence is growing every day. I'm not critical of Indian foreign policy. Yeah. Tyler Durdin says, I think Iran is prepared for this conflict. They knew it was coming.

Yeah, absolutely. Yes. I completely agree. Yeah. Austin said, Elza says Austin probably can't walk to gum at the same moment. But can he manage all the wars from the hospital? CNN says he's managing it from the hospital. Oh, of course. Absolutely. I mean, he's making all the decisions. You know, he's on, he's probably an intensive care, but he's still able to run the war. CNN reported that. He is making the decisions from his hospital bed. Angry Warhark says, should a U.S. warship be sunk with that shock DC into scaling back into sensible diplomacy or would it have the opposite effect? I find that an absolutely terrifying prospect.

It's not by any means an inconceivable one. I don't know what the response would be. Americans perhaps have a better idea. But if an American warship is sunk and American sailors are killed, it will be a massive shock in the United States. There will be undoubtedly many people who will demand an overwhelming retaliation. But I suspect there will be many, many other people

in the United States who will then start asking the questions. In fact, they're already asking the questions. What are we doing here? And which of these two bodies of opinion will prevail? I don't know. The Nio Khan opinion. always prevails. Tweedledum, Soonak can rely on Tweedle D. Stomber. Absolutely, of course.

Roberto, thank you for that. Cress Carter says, I am now glad that the Australian government didn't get involved, even though they are completely hopeless in every other aspect of governance. Absolutely. And, you know, Britain, which is so close to Australia, why don't we do the same thing? Yeah. Ackle says, does the U.S. need any excuse to strike? Well, it doesn't need excuses to strike, but it has done so in this case.

And I mean, I'm not saying the Houthis have been busy doing all kinds of things in the Red Sea, and that is a problem. But it is a problem that could and should have been foreseen way back in October when this crisis is, the Middle East began following the Hamas attack on Israel. And as Alex and I have pointed out in program after program, as others have done, you know, listen to what Mearsheimer, for example, has been saying. What the United States needed to do was to work with the Israelis to pursue a calculated, measured, and intelligent response to that, to those events, which an innate, the United States to control the diplomatic and political agenda going forward.

And there were ways that you could have done that back in October. But the Americans did not do that. They did not think through the longer consequences. Biden went to Jerusalem and Brace Metanyahu, gave him a blank check. And that has led us inexorably to this position, which we are in now. Deborah, thank you for that super sticker. Ted says, how likely is it that Iran closes off Hormuz as a response to this conflict? And would Russia get involved directly if Iran gets down in?

I don't think the Iranians will close the Straits of Hormuz, bar an attack on them by the United States. I mean, bear in mind, the Iranians have been working very hard to achieve a rapprochement with Saudi Arabia and the other Persian Gulf monarchies, and they've achieved that. Closing the Straits of Hormuz is not going to be a popular act with the Saudis and with the Persian Gulf monarchy. So I think that the Iranians will only do it in circumstances where it is a clear act of self-defense. And I think that the Iranians are very sophisticated people, and they understand that very well. And they will not act precipitously.

They will wait for the United States to make the mistakes. Proof says likelihood of Vivek becoming Trump's VP. I have no idea. You must ask him. I don't know. It's possible. Impossible. Possible.

Yeah. Anna says strength comes from people buying into your leadership. if Biden's conception of strength is absurd. It's as if Tim Cook claimed he makes all the iPhones himself and does not need workers or customers. Brilliant. Very true. Raoul says, as a result of these strikes,

the war was spread throughout the Middle East and oil will rise. The global economy is heading for the toilet quite possible. Absolutely. And by the way, I was looking at the deficit figures in the United States in 2023. The United States ran a budget deficit of $2 trillion, $2 trillion in $2 trillion in $2 trillion.

Russia, you remember they could have a budgetary crisis. We were talking doing programs about that at the start of last year. Their total deficit for 2023 was $36 billion. $2 trillion in the US. $36 billion in Russia

for the whole of 2023. Go figure. And we throw in more problems with oil and This, when the latest inflation numbers, which nobody believes anyway, I mean, everybody knows that they're understated in the United States, have been going north again. Zisi, thank you for that super sticker. Vichal says, India Marcos rescued a ship in the Middle East due to terrorism alerts. Some suspect it's a false flag to draw India into the Middle East conflict, by the way.

Well, I wouldn't be surprised. I think the Indians understand this very well. By the way, relations between the U.S. and India have become much more tense recently because the U.S. continues to bring up this issue, assassinations of Sikh activists. And this is clearly, this is absolutely clearly, an attempt to put personal pressure on Prime Minister Modi, who is nonetheless going to go to Moscow at some point in the next few weeks or months. W. Limbs says the weasels, Western European, Anglo-Saxon elites are just reacting, not planning, because they can't get out of their waking dream that they loved. Stengel whined in time about anti-Americanism. You're completely right. Thank you.

Thank you for that. Sparky says Garland Nixon posed a good question asking who ordered the attack on Yemen. I wonder if the UK ordered it filling in for incapacitated U.S. leadership. Well, completely, I wouldn't, you know, I don't know who ordered it. you know, I'm going to suspect Jake Sullivan and, you know, he's got all the crowd, the usual crowd of neocons there. And they've probably been arguing. I mean, we've discussed this.

They've been arguing about this for weeks now, probably. And of course, the president, to the extent that he's involved in decision making, he's very much on the hardline neocons side. So, you know, we can see the drift. But the British, who in Margaret Thatcher's day acted as a restraining force and always did before Margaret Thatcher. I can remember all the way back, they were always a restraining force. They're now continuously egging the Americans on into these follies and joining them in and to what end. My friends, I have to stop now. This is where I have to end. But we will

do a dedicated program answering all these questions. You go, Alexander, I'll answer the rest of the questions. I'll finish there's not that many. I'll finish out the rest of the questions. and we'll be back next week. Excellent. Thank you very much. Thanks, everybody. Good day to you. Okay, where are we?

Garland Nixon here. Sparky says Garland Nixon. Let me find my place. We'll answer these questions here. My Black Star, thank you for that super sticker. Mustafa says, what do you think about Peter Zahan's views? He claims Russian and China is soon to collapse. He's been saying that forever.

Yeah, I wouldn't take his views too seriously. Raul says the U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S. Bomed the hell out of Afghanistan and Iraq and did not achieve anything after 20 years. What makes them think this will have any effect? It won't have any effect. As we explained, the Houthis will continue to blockade the Red Sea, and it's going to force the U.S. to continue to escalate, which is exactly what the neocons want to draw Iran into this.

Sparky says, off topic. I poorly worded a super chat on the Duran about Javier Milet. I meant that economist Mark Blythe had a handle on pulling countries out of economic doldrums, not Javier Mlee. Thank you for that. Sparky. The Hockey goalie says air strikes alone. Air strikes alone achieve nothing. This is projected weakness fear. If these rockets are such a risk to global trade, why not get a security council resolution?

We know why. Disaster scenario here is a plane gets shot down, possibly. it's all about escalating to Iran. That's what this is all about, at least for the neocons. For the Biden White House now, they can't go back now. Once the Houthis attack another ship, the Biden White House are going to have to hit out at Yemen again. And the neocons are just going to keep on connecting Yemen to Iran. And eventually they're going to put out the narrative that if you really want to stop all of this from taking place,

all of this blockade of the Red Sea, we're going to have to go after Iran. That's what this is all about. Joe Public says, are the scribbles in West Ukraine? I don't know. I don't know. Where are the scribbles? Does anyone know where the scribbles are? Zabri says the Empire Strikes back. Last I heard of the Scriples was that they were, I want to say New Zealand was the last I heard of the scribbles, but I'm not sure. Let's see, the Empire strikes back. Zabri, yes, there they have. William, will get no credit for this see north stream the uk will get no credit for this see northstrom okay thanks for that uh north stream that's that's uh zeluzni zeluzni the andromeda they're the ones that pulled off north stream william come on now jerry says if south africa's efforts at the icj prove successful

what can the icj do to the involved parties well this case is moving very quickly this is ICJ case quicker than I ever thought. And it was the yesterday's, yesterday's testimonies were pretty, it was pretty detailed. So I think Israel and the U.S., they're worried about this. They're playing it off. Like, this is no big deal, but you can tell that they're very, very worried about this. And this could be a big diplomatic catastrophe for, for Israel and the U.S. Snupak, thank you for that super sticker. Raul Pinto says Sunak arrived in Kiev will announce military aid to Ukraine with 2.5 billion high inflation and cost of living prices at home. His priorities, unbelievable, huh?

The UK is starting a conflict in the Middle East and Sunac goes to Ukraine to give Ellensky $2.5 billion. Unbelievable. Can Cyprus to ban British bases leave? Yes, they could, but they won't. I'll tell you that right now. A lot of the strikes towards Yemen are coming from the British bases here. And it's not only the British military that's using these bases.

I imagine the entire collective West coalition that is using these bases, the U.S. basically. Sparky says Vivek may be establishment plant. I saw a video posting of him and his buddy, Pete Buttigieg posing as questioners in a town hall, several presidential elections ago on Saby Savi Sav's show. Yeah, a lot of people say that about. Vivek Sparky. I personally don't believe it. I think Vivek is the real deal. That's my own personal opinion, but I could be wrong. Geron, thank you for that super sticker. Garland Nixon says elections in Taiwan this weekend. Yep. Yep, Garland, no coincidences. I think. Everything is

all connected. And from law of attraction and locals, any allies for the Houthis except Iran Alexander answered that, actually, law of attraction. Yes, Iran is considered an ally of the Houthis, but I think the whole narrative of Iran being the sponsors of the Houthis is wrong and exaggerated. Of course, you can see the ships that Yemen lets pass through the Red Sea, and you understand exactly what's going on. They allow Russian and Chinese ships to pass the Red Sea. So I think we see everything that is taking place.

All right. I will end this live stream there. Thank you, everybody, for joining us today. And we've got a whole lot of videos that we are going to publish as the day goes on. Take care.