The Duran Podcast - Will the Deep State Sink US-China Diplomacy?

Episode Date: September 25, 2026

Will the Deep State Sink US-China Diplomacy?

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping. Interesting development at the airport in the United States with Trump greeting the Chinese leader. Something that U.S. presidents do not usually do. They'll usually greet the leader at the White House, the foreign dignitary of the visitor. But this time, Trump went to the airport with Melania, red carpet, and he greeted. and his wife. So I guess we're starting off on the right foot, I guess. Well, absolutely.

Can I just say the last time a president ever did that, and I think the first time, by the way, a president ever did that, was when JFK met the British Prime Minister Harold McMillan. And I think that would have been in the early 1960s. So it's actually did happen one time. in the 2000s, but not with a foreign leader. Right. Bush, I believe Bush Jr. greeted Pope Benedict at the airport.

So not a foreign leader. Yeah, JFK was the last time this has happened with a foreign leader. A foreign leader. Still, it means a lot, right? It means a huge amount, and it will be noticed in China, and it will be well received in China. And it needs to be well received in China. because relations between the United States and China are firstly extremely important.

And secondly, they've been going through a very, very difficult period. As we know, over the last few years, in fact, they've been steadily deteriorating. And the Chinese will notice this step that Trump has taken, and it was a good one. As we've discussed in previous programs, there's a lot about Trump, which left to himself would actually have made him if he'd been a bit more level-headed about the way he went about things. Actually, a good diplomat when he met Xi Jinping back in 2017, just after Trump became president for the first time, he invited him to Mar-a-Lago, and the meeting went very well, and the two men came away with every appearance of actually liking each other. And given how important this relationship

between the United States and China is having a friendly relationship, or at least a civil and polite relationship between Trump and Xi Jinping, is important. I mean, by comparison, just to say, the Chinese didn't like Obama at all. And they didn't like Biden at all. With Trump, it's been very, very up and down. But of course, you can get all of the atmospherics right. You can do all of the protocol things right. You can make Xi Jinping feel welcome in the United States.

But unless you actually work out the really important things, unless you establish proper guardrails to the relationship, then things are going to start to go wrong again very, very quickly. And, well, we know what the problems are. They are trade. They are Taiwan. And they are the very widespread belief that many, many people have in the United States. States, that China is not just an economic rival and a powerful economic rival, but a geopolitical adversary as well, a country that is busy building up an alternative alliance system to that of the United States, that is leveraging its enormous power to overtake the United States

and establish itself in place of the United States as the global leader. And very many people in the United States talk about China in this way. They are very concerned about Chinese success in high technology, for example. The fact that the Chinese are now on the brink of starting production of the very top end chips that they've managed to produce apparently the first advanced lithography machine similar to the ones that ASML produces. Many people in the United States, in the Pentagon, in Congress, across the deep state, but also within wider American society, see these things as threatening and dangerous because they see them as building blocks.

in this race that China is supposed to be undertaking to replace the United States as the world's global power. I think personally that this misunderstands Chinese thinking. I think China is not actually seeking to displace the United States in that exact way, which is why a dialogue between Trump and Xi Jinping is important and useful, because if Trump and Xi Jinping can come to an understanding and understand also what each side's concerns about the other are, then they can start to take steps to try to mitigate these problems. But that requires Trump to have a wider understanding, not just of American concerns, but of Chinese concerns too, and to understand also of what it is that drives the Chinese and what they're concerned about so that he can start to work towards harmonising relations with China. And of course, the same applies to Xi Jinping.

Xi Jinping also needs to understand American sensibilities and American concerns. I suspect, by the way, that he does. I think Xi Jinping does have significant diplomatic and negotiating skills. It ultimately depends on Trump. Here's an interesting fact. Bush did greet Benedict and Obama greeted Pope Francis in 2015. Interesting, huh? Well, there you go.

Religious leaders. Well, Xi Jinping is anything but a religious leader. remember he's a communist, which presumably means he doesn't even believe in God, just to say. But the fact is he is now in the United States. He is the leader of what is beyond any doubt now is superpower, a superpower that manufactures three times more than the United States does, and which is a much bigger population. It has economic problems. It has demographic problems.

It has many problems, but it is a power to be reckoned with. a major power to be reckoned with. And that is something that obviously makes this meeting particularly important. Will Trump be able to negotiate with Xi Jinping? Will he be able to find an understanding with China? And even if Trump does, find a way to exist with China and to cooperate with China, will the mechanism and the architecture? behind the Trump administration or that is a part of the Trump administration, will they allow

Trump to find an understanding, reach an understanding with Xi Jinping? These are the critical and essential questions. I would guess not. Well, I also would guess not. Just to say very quickly. But let's start with a few things. I think Trump at one level does understand how important the relationship. with China is. I mean, bear in mind that he's going to have four meetings with Xi Jinping over the course of

this year. He visited China, as we know, in March. He's now invited Xi Jinping for this state visit to the United States. So Xi Jinping is now in the United States reciprocally. Then they're meeting again at the IPAC meeting, where Putin will also be, by the way. So that's the third meeting. And then very likely, almost certain, in fact, Xi Jinping is also coming to the G20 meeting, which is going to happen in the United States. So this is a very, very intense interaction

between the leaders of the United States and China. If there was a functional dialogue taking place between these two leaders and their respective teams and governments, one could actually talk about a very intense dialogue. But of course, you could have many meetings, and the meetings might not reflect a dialogue. Now, I am going to say a few things here. I think that there are obviously important trade issues.

I think, and I've always believed, that the trade and business issues are matters which could be negotiated. Do you remember once upon the time we used to talk about an orderly divorce? I still think that is possible if we're talking about trade and business relations. There was a time in the 1990s and early 2000s

when China was a producer of cheap consumer goods and cheap labor for the United States, for American companies, and all that kind of thing. And that relationship at that time, for that reason, was smooth. But inevitably, as China developed its economy and became technologically more advanced and began to compete directly with the United States in all sorts of high-tech industrial areas, that model was unsustainable, became unsustainable. And a renegotiation of the trade relationship between these two countries was therefore both necessary and inevitable. I think it can still be done.

What you need to get past is the geopolitical problem. This idea in the United States that China is not just an economic rival, but a geopolitical threat to the United States. And here, again, I don't personally believe that China is that kind of a threat to the United States. But I don't think that Trump knows how to negotiate with the Chinese. and how to calm attitudes in the United States over this sort of question. The Chinese themselves don't always make it easy.

It must be said. And beside that, I think that trying to get people in the deep state, the intelligence community, the Pentagon, the deep state in the United States in Congress, and even wider American society, to accept that China is not an enemy to the United States, but to accept it as an equal, a geopolitical equal. I think that is enormously difficult. Trump may be, once upon a time, you could just have imagined him with his tremendous communication skills, that he might have been the person who could sell that.

But the Trump that we have now, very damaged, caught up into intractable wars, losing touch with his base, divided in his own views about China. I mean, there are times when he too has played up very much this idea of China as an anniversary. I don't think he's going to be able to do it. I don't think he really knows how to do it. And I don't think that ultimately this dialogue is going to work. But anyway, that's my view. At least they're talking. Whilst they're talking, something might come.

We'll see. At least they're talking. It's more than we can say for Biden. Well, Biden, Biden was openly, extremely hostile. I mean, he would go into Congress and be unbelievably rude about Xi Jinping. I mean, Trump, by contrast, at least comes to Andrew's Air Force base and meets Xi Jinping. That's why I said, Trump, for all his eccentricities, he's appalling language, he's disastrous speech. I thought it was disastrous at the UN.

He does actually does possess certain diplomatic skills, which recent U.S. presidents have not. Unfortunately, he doesn't build on them. And that's why we're probably not going to see this thing work. Is it so difficult for a president to go to the airport to greet a world leader? Well, no, it shouldn't be. It shouldn't be. But you know, especially if it's China or Russia or India or something like that. But it shouldn't.

You know, it's not the most difficult thing in the world, and it is a positive gesture. Yes. And you know, the sad thing is that there are going to be people in the United States who are going to criticize Trump for doing this. They're going to say, you know, this, again, it demeans the presidency for the United States president to come and greet the dictator. the dictator of China in that sort of way. And I can already, you know, list the publications, National Review and places like that, where you're going to have articles appear of that kind.

So that is the, in my opinion, the sad thing, because, you know, you don't have to like the political system in China, but you do need to acknowledge China's power, and you also need to understand that the Chinese, do have certain interests and security concerns, which need to be addressed, and which, in my opinion, can be addressed, and specifically on the issue of Taiwan, there are ways to park this problem to put it aside. I do think China particularly wants to invade Taiwan. I mean, they know what enormous damage that would do to their international position and to their long-term relationship

with the United States. Besides, I think they're very confident that as China's economy grows, Taiwan will gradually be drawn back into the Chinese sphere. So, you know, you could park it. But of course, there are people in Washington who just don't want to do that. And you'll insist on treating Taiwan as an independent country standing up against the Chinese dragon, disregarding the fact that way back in the 1970s, the United States signed a series of agreements with China, which basically already sold that pass, accepted that Taiwan was part of China, supported moves towards Chinese reunification and committed the United States to eventually reducing and ending arms sales to Taiwan. Those agreements were made in the past. They're still there. The Chinese constantly bring them up.

I mean, you can tear them up. You can pretend that they never happened. But of course, if you do that, you are damaging. In fact, you destroy your relationship with China, and you are increasing the possibility of a crisis over Taiwan, which I suspect some people, of course, in the United States, might even want. I would say a majority of those that are running foreign policy in the United States. That's what they want. Yes. And they want to use Taiwan as a proxy against China in exactly the same way that they

used Ukraine as a proxy against Russia. Correct. That's exactly what they want to do. A lot of people in U.S. foreign policy circles and in the decision-making institutions. But this is, you're absolutely right about that, by the way. And can I just say, though, look at where that has brought the United States now. I mean, we've had the same people advocating for conflict with Russia using Ukraine as a proxy. The same people, it's the same, it's exactly the same group of people, advocating

constantly for war against Iran. It has been a disaster in both places. The same people now advocating that we must stand by Taiwan and build up Taiwan and ultimately, exactly as you rightly say, using Taiwan as a proxy against China. And that would be a disaster in exactly the same way that the other two conflicts have been a disaster. Now, I just want to make that point because obviously these people will never be persuaded and they will never change their mind.

And they are probably the key reason why in the end this rapprochement with China isn't going to work, but to those who are going to push back on what we say, look at what has happened in those other conflicts and tell me that a third conflict with the most powerful potential adversary of all, which is China, is a good idea for the United States, especially at this time. So Zelensky is asking Trump, he's demanding of Trump to bring up Ukraine with Xi Jinping and for China to stop supporting Russia.

That's Zelensky's demand of Trump. And we have the Wall Street Journal actually posting an article on the very same day as Xi Jinping arrives in the United States talking about how China is providing. Iran with drone component parts. Yes. So you can already see that things are difficult with regards to the foreign policy side of the U.S.-China relationship. It doesn't have to be difficult.

It's actually very, it could be very simple. Trump could tell so let's get a buzz off. And the Wall Street Journal article is a so what. So what? China provides components to the Europeans. so they can manufacture drones to hit Russia. I mean, how'd understand what's the big deal? Anyway, yeah.

Well, you're absolutely, you're completely absolutely right about this. But again, think of what has been happening in Washington over the last couple of weeks. We've now had the sanctions from hell, Lindsay Graham, Richard Blumenthal Bill, which authorizes the president to impose. tariffs up to the level of 100% on countries that import Russian, and by the way, I believe also Iranian oil. China is the major importer of Russian oil. I believe that sometimes it's China, sometimes it's India, but anyway, China is always going to be an importer, big importer of Russian oil. They're also busy now finalizing the new power of Faisal.

pipeline, gas pipeline, which isn't going to go through Mongolia. After all, it's going to go directly to China through Russia, and it's going to go into Western China. So the Chinese are going to increase their imports of Russian energy. So what's going to happen as night follows day is that even though one senses that Trump himself doesn't want to, impose these kind of tariffs on China. You're going to have all those people in Congress, in the deep state, saying, oh, look, China is helping Russia. China is the reason why Russia is succeeding

on the battlefronts in Ukraine. China is helping Iran. We've just had this article in the Wall Street Journal. Why doesn't the president take action? He's got the power. We've just given him the power through Congress, and over the next few weeks and months, and as soon as this October, by the way, when the first review and message from the White House to Congress, explaining why these tariffs have not imposed, as soon as October, you're going to start to see the agitation, the demand, impose tariffs on China, Maybe not 100% tariffs, but 25% tariffs, 50% tariffs, above the ones you've already imposed. And of course, that will wreck the whole rapprochement that we are seeing. At the present time, the United States and China are trying to negotiate a trade truce.

The Chinese wanted to last until the end of Donald Trump's term. the Americans say we only wanted to last for six months. Any idea of a truce goes completely out of the window if people like Richard Blumenthal and Tom Cotton and all of those people who passed this bill through Congress have their way. And they usually do get their way. And they always, well, up to now, that's the trouble. They always have.

They always have got their way. And look and look where that has brought the United States. All right, we will end the video there, the duran.locals.com. We are also on substack. And you can also look for our merch, the Durand Shop, in the description box down below. I will have all those links. Take care.