The Duran Podcast - Xi Jinping-Trump Summit

Episode Date: October 30, 2025

Xi Jinping-Trump Summit

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the meeting between Trump and she, which is the first meeting between both leaders of Trump's second term as president. Your thoughts, Alexander, on the results of the meeting. Just some quick background, an hour and a half was how long the meeting lasted. No press conference, nothing like that. Trump has issued some statements about the meeting. And we have had a readout from the Chinese foreign ministry, which went over some of the things that were agreed on. My quick take on this Alexander is a one-year kicking of the can down the road. That's the way it looks. I mean, everything is going to be talked about in a year later.

But still, some significant issues were discussed during this meeting. One issue was not discussed, which is Taiwan. I thought that was interesting as well. And, of course, a lot of people, I don't know if you want to touch on this, Alexander. A lot of people are talking about the body language, Trump shaking hands with Xi and talking a lot, while Xi was very, very stoic, I guess you would say. Also, the positioning of Xi on the right side of Trump positions him as the host. So there are a lot of people that are talking about the dynamics of the two leaders as they met.

Trump was actually standing at the podium waiting for Xi. So it does look as if Xi was the more dominant of the two from a body language optics protocol standpoint. But anyway, you may want to touch on that as well. Your thoughts. Well, first of all, I absolutely agree with you. This is kicking the can down the road by another year. It basically dials us back to the agreement that was made by the U.S. and China in Madrid at the beginning of September. That was supposed to have a tariff pause, which was going to be renewed regularly, the anticipation was that there would then be negotiations, trade negotiations leading to a formal trade deal. Nothing like that happened. And in fact,

as we discussed in a program which we did a couple of about a week ago, two weeks ago, what we got instead was salami slicing by the United States. The United States imposing all kinds of little tariffs or sanctions this place. This, another place, the one, which it is now clear, angered the Chinese extremely was the decision to impose port fees on Chinese built ships that come to American ports. I mean, there's no justification in trade terms for doing anything like that. It was clearly an attack on China's shipbuilding industry. The Chinese were furious about this. According to Scott Besson, there was a stormy encounter with the Chinese trade official

in which the Chinese trade official made various warnings to the United States that China would take strong action. You know, one should be careful not to jump to conclusions about what the accuracy of Besson's account, but it was clearly a difficult one. And China then retaliated and it announced these tough new regulations on exports of rare earths. And they've essentially stopped exports, apparently, of chips made by Nixpedia. You remember the company that was seized in the Netherlands and it makes its chips in China. and that's having already apparently a significant effect on the European motor industry.

It could eventually extend to the US industry as well. Anyway, China in effect waved its fist. He'd said, you know, this is unacceptable. It cannot continue this way. And the United States basically caved. I mean, I don't want to put it in that way. But what they did was they've gone back basically to the Madrid compromise. And they've now extended it for a whole year.

And I think we should look at the body language. Because I could trust how C was when he was with Putin just a few weeks ago in China. How C was when he was hosting all sorts of other world leaders at the meetings in Tianjin and in Beijing. back in August and September. And look at C with Trump, a very, very, as you said, controlled. I would go further. I'd say a bit icy, actually. And the Chinese readouts, and I've readout, and I've read many, many Chinese readouts in my time,

this too came across to me as being more icy in tone than most of the other readouts from China that I have seen. There's no real attempt, as far as I can see, on the Chinese side, to reach out to the Americans, to try to explain to the Americans the importance of good relations and how beneficial that can be. Obviously, the language, some of that is there in the readout, but it's much less effusive than usual. And a one and a half hour meeting is a relatively short meeting, given the extent of the issues that were discussed. The same length of time, by the way, as the meeting between Putin and Trump in Anchorage, just saying. So that is my overall conclusion. Trump, of course, is talking it up. No great, he's sort of implying that it was a breakthrough.

In fact, as I said, to repeat again, it is the United States that's actually pulled back. It's the United States that appears to be dismantling most of the things that it did during that salami slicing episode. And if it's true that the United States is going to walk back some of the fentanyl tariffs, that's a further concession ultimately by the United States. If you follow the Chinese media, by the way, the fentanyl affair, if I can call it that, is one that China has taken especially badly. They don't like to be accused of involvement in that at all. So a Chile meeting, it's kicked the can down the road by a further year. Trump has admitted that he did not threaten China over China's purchases of Russian oil. So contrasts the difference that the United States

shows its treatment of China, which is economically powerful, but is an adversary or a rival with India, which is America's friend, to remember the famous expression of Kissinger's, that it's dangerous to be America's enemy, but it's fatal to be America's friend. People in India are going to be thinking about this. And so he didn't really pressure C of this. And the Chinese media for people's interest had been built, writing up article after article. There's been a steady drumbeat. are very, very tough articles about Taiwan. They've been particularly strong in the Chinese media recently.

I assumed that that meant that C was going to bring up the issue of Taiwan when he met Trump. The Chinese readout also shows that he didn't and that he's interesting. And it makes me think that the Chinese have made decisions that they're going to sort out the problem of Taiwan by themselves. and they're not really trying to explain it any longer to the Americans. Yeah, if Trump believed that he had a good hand leverage over China, he would have brought up Taiwan. The fact that he didn't bring up Taiwan, I think reveals that he has no cards to play, or very little, very little in terms of leverage over China. You know, the fentanyl thing also blows apart Trump's reasoning for,

for regime change in Venezuela, right? Yeah, absolutely. I'll decrease the fentanyl to 10% for China, but then he's making a big stink about the fentanyl coming from Maduro, which it doesn't come from Maduro. But anyway, he's using that as the cause to go after Venezuela. So it kind of blows up that whole regime change narrative of the White House, at least connecting it to fentanyl.

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce, their readout is really interesting as well, because they present a picture of the United States agreeing to walk back something or agreeing to do something. And then once the United States makes that concession agrees to it, then it says, okay, China will now do this. So they paint a picture, at least the Ministry of Commerce from China side, paints a picture of the United States, Trump administration, doing something or walking back something, and then once it has agreed to walk back something, okay, now you've agreed to do this, okay, we'll put

a one-year extension on rare earth export controls. Yes. So that's the dynamic that they present. And the whole one-year timeline that everything's been placed on, doesn't it give you a sense of China putting the Trump administration on a type of one-year subscription? I can't think of another word. It's as if China is saying, okay, you have one year to show us that you're going to do all these things or that you're going to honor these terms and this agreement.

And if you do not, then we're just going to put the export controls back or we're going to do this again after one year if you don't honor the terms. So it seems like China's putting. Trump on a type of one-year timeline to see if he actually executes the agreement that they discussed in South Korea. That's exactly right. They put Trump on probation. A probation.

There you go. And a one-year probation is what it feels like. One-year probation, but it's also very conditional because the way the Chinese commerce industry's communicate reads is that every single, well, every single move that China makes towards the United States is conditional ultimately on the move that the United States is going to make. So it leaves it open for China to reverse its stance, for example, on rare earths at any time. If they feel that the Americans are not playing, you know, according to the script has now been agreed, China will once again re-impose its decisions. Now, before this meeting,

there was a very interesting exchange because Besson made many comments about how China had agreed to a one-year extension of the rules on rare earths, and that this is all the result of this superb negotiating strategy that the United States had followed, and that this was all about the 100% tariffs threat and all of that kind. The Chinese are absolutely furious about this, and the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman basically called Bessentelian. on this and it got highly publicized in the Chinese media. It was all over the foreign ministry spokesman's words were very, very strongly covered across the Chinese media as well.

And yes, it is a one-year extension on rare earths, on the enforcement of these regulations. But to repeat again, it is conditional. It can be withdrawn by China. at any time. And that is, it seems to me, the best explanation of what the commerce, I don't think there's any doubt about it. It is what the commerce ministry is saying. And of course, it is only a one-year extension anyway.

If there isn't a trade deal, a proper trade deal within this year, or at least there isn't enough progress on a trade deal to extend this further. beyond that year, then of course in a year's time, these restrictions, these regulations are going to come into full force. So you can see what China is doing. And it does show, again, that the balance of advantage here clearly rests with China. Yeah, I think it's crystal clear that China has the upper hand. And it showed from the very beginning when they first met and the, the, results of the meeting from both sides. Trump's statements as well as China's readout shows that China definitely holds the cards right here. Basically, you know, one year and if you don't

behave President Trump, if you don't adhere to these terms, if you don't see any progress on our trade, then we're just going to reimpose the rare earth export controls. Right? I mean, that's, that was basically the the summary of the meeting. Very close. You mentioned that it's very close to the Trump-Putin Alaska summit. I agree. Very, very similar in all aspects to the Trump-Putin-Alaska summit.

And we know how that ended. And we also saw Trump talking up the Alaska Summit and the results of the Alaska Summit. And now from Lavrov, we know the truth about that summit. Exactly. Exactly. So this looks, this looks, I'm going to say something. I think the Chinese have been fully briefed about the Alaska summit. I mean, directly after it, Putin called C, and as he called many other world leaders,

by the way, and explained to them exactly what happened in Alaska. So the Chinese went into this meeting in South Korea already for. fully prepared for, you know, the kind of way in which Trump might try to spin what happened and all of those things. And I mean, this time, more I have to say than the Russians. I mean, Putin, in my opinion, was far too accommodating to Trump in Alaska. I mean, he clearly thought that he'd come away with some kind of understanding with Trump. Well, we know he didn't. And he should have insisted that all of the various proposals and counter proposals that were floating around, that that should have been made public. The Chinese are not going to make that mistake.

They've actually come out at this meeting and we see that the Commerce Ministry. And Ussi Xin, by the way, the foreign ministry also in the readout of the meeting, are very, very careful to make it absolutely clear what was agreed and what was not. By the way, something I just want to very quickly say. Trump says that the Chinese agreed that they would work with the United States about settling the conflict in Ukraine. I've seen nothing like that at all from the Chinese side. Nothing.

No, they don't mention it at all in the commerce readout. There's no mention of it. Or the foreign ministry readout. So what does that tell you? He's probably making it out. I mean, maybe they did mention it briefly, but clearly the Chinese are not making any commitments at all. It seems as if the Chinese had no interest in talking geopolitics, whether it was Taiwan or Ukraine

or anything like that. It seems like they were very focused on whatever points they wanted to discuss with trade, and that's what was discussed. Yes, exactly. So maybe Trump brought it up in passing, and now he's talking it up as far as Ukraine goes, is that what might have happened? And maybe the Chinese said, you know, okay, we'll talk about it later? Or what do you think happened there?

Well, I think the Chinese repeatedly say that they are keen to see a settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. But they have always said that the people who are ultimately responsible for the conflict are the Americans and that the way that the Americans need to behave is to stop, as the Chinese always say, and read out after read out and comment after comment, an article after article what they discussed to the war, the Americans need to stop pouring fuel of the flames. I don't think the Chinese have any intention of working together with the Americans to end the war in Ukraine. I think that they're going to keep well away from that, and I think Trump may have persuaded himself that he has some understanding with the Chinese, though I doubt

it actually. I think he's probably, to some extent, making a lot of this up again. But I do think the Chinese have any intention of getting drawn into discussions with the Americans about Ukraine. Because if they did, there would have been something about it in the Chinese statements. And there is nothing. How long do you give it until Trump post something negative about China, about trade, about Xi Jinping, about fentanyl again, saying China is smuggling fentanyl through Venezuela, which he has said in the past. How long do you give it before he makes some sort of poster statement, which totally blows apart whatever diplomacy agreement they hammered out in South Korea at this meeting. He's already, he's actually, he is very aggressively going after Modi in India, very aggressively. Very aggressively.

Yeah. Modi's. You can see that Modi just doesn't want to even deal with Trump, which is incredible. Putin, a lot of restraint, a lot of patience. But you can tell that she was not happy with Trump either. I mean, it was obvious from the body language. So how long do you give it? A couple of weeks. Not this year, but probably early next year, my guess is things are going to start getting sour again very quick. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Anything else that we should discuss with this meeting? Well, I mean, lots of optimistic comments from all sorts of people in the West that Trump was going to find some means to split China and Russia from each other. We discussed this in a previous program. Nothing like that has happened. The Chinese want an orderly divorce.

I mean, they now want an orderly divorce from the United States. The only question now is whether the divorce will be orderly or not. And this is the last attempt, I think, to try and achieve that. Well, I mean, just a final question or final comment. Trump's big card that he's playing is tariffs, right? The U.S. market. The U.S. market is his big card, right? So I'm going to stop China from having access to the U.S. market.

China's big card is the rare earths. Yes. Right? So who has a better card? I mean, what's easier for China to find other markets and to diversify or for the United States to process and refine rare earths? Well, I mean, China has the advantage here. America will eventually get to that point where he can refine rare earths.

There's arguments about how long it will take. take, nobody expects it to happen over the course of the next year or the course of the next few months. We're talking about a process that is going to take much longer. How much longer I've had many conflicting claims, but at the moment, for the moment, China obviously has the advantage. And China is busy making trade agreements and sorting out arrangements with country after country and that process is going to continue. And by the way, I'm going to make a guess that at some point next year, we're going to see a Modi C summit meeting as well.

That, I am sure, is coming and is on the horizon. Of course, Modi is going to be, I mean, he's supposed to be hosting Putin in India in December. there's no word, nothing to suggest that that meeting, that that visit has been called off, though I suspect the Americans are going to pile on the pressure. India has just concluded a deal with Russia to build Russian civil airliners in India, Suhoi super jets in India, 200 of them. Apparently, you know, it's going to be a co-production effort, but India, will eventually take over control and India will build these aircraft in India for use by

Indian carriers. So, you know, it doesn't seem as if the Indians are being very receptive to US pressure. And of course, a lot of what the Indians want now, in fact, much of what they want, most of what they want, they could probably get from China rather than the US. The US market is important for India. But it is not essential for India because India's economy is still very much domestically oriented. You could argue that what India needs is technology and infrastructure, and it can get that better, perhaps from China and perhaps to some extent from Russia too, then it is likely to get here from the US.

Yeah, one thing that they did talk about, or at least Trump talked about, is that he's going to be going to China, I believe, in April. That's what he said. And she is going to be traveling to D.C. We don't have a time frame for that. One final quick question. What does Trump up to with the countries in Eurasia? They're going to be at the White House, I believe in about a week or two. Yeah. Central Asia, Eurasia, yeah. This is about isolating Russia or isolating China or both. Yeah, absolutely. But let's first of all talk about this trip by Trump to China, April and a reciprocal visit by sea to the US. I think this entirely depends on how well these arrangements that were made in South Korea and previously in Malaysia, how these arrangements are going to work. If things do seem to be going well, then the Chinese will accept a visit by Trump to China in April. If they don't, the Chinese have not committed themselves to that visit. The Chinese only confirmed that C was going to meet Trump at all in South Korea the day before the meeting happened.

Trump announced it, but the Chinese held back from doing so. So again, this is, I think, very conditional from the Chinese side on America's good behavior. Now, about the meeting of the Central Asian states, as I understand it, this has been under discussion and has been prepared for a very long time. The Central Asian states will go to the United States because why wouldn't they? They want good relations with the United States. Why wouldn't they? But ultimately, the countries that dominate their trade and their commerce and their security

will continue to be China and Russia. There is no possibility of that changing. People who've been there say, I've read an article about this, that China is all over the place now in Central Asia. And, of course, Putin had a major summit meeting with all of these same leaders in Dushan Bay in Tajikistan just a short time ago. And I don't think any that's going to change. Yeah. All right. Trump is trying very, very hard to break Russia and to break China.

Yeah. Yeah. He's focusing more on that than actual America. Yes, he is. Yes, he is. And this is his huge mistake, actually. There is so much that could be done in the U.S. itself. And he's wasting his time on these neocon geostrategic fantasies,

which are a massive diversion of time and energy from the really important things. Yep, exactly. And the things that he's electoral-based care. That he campaigned on. Exactly. All right. We will end it there. The durand.

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