The Duran Podcast - Zelensky House of Cards in KURSK crumbles

Episode Date: March 10, 2025

Zelensky House of Cards in KURSK crumbles

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the situation in Kursk and in Sutsa, which is the last part of Kursk that the Ukraine military holds. They are surrounded, actually, in Sutsa and Kursk. My understanding of things is that we have one big cauldron around Kursk, but we also have smaller pockets where the Ukraine military is surrounded. Some places, fierce fighting continues. other places you have surrenders, mass surrenders. What's the situation in Kersk like?

Of course, we have the story about the pipeline as well, which is an amazing story of the Russian soldiers crawling through a 12-kilometer pipeline to end up behind Ukrainian lines. And that pretty much triggered the collapse, or at least that seemed to be the beginning of the Ukraine military collapse. In Kursk, a big defeat to Mavis.

massive defeat for the Collective West for Zelensky. What are your thoughts? Absolutely. Now, you said that it was this pipeline operation that triggered it. I'm going to suggest that there isn't actually even another, even more proximate reason, which is, first of all, it's important to say that the Russians have been whittling away at the cauldron, you know, the salient in Kuzk. For some weeks, they've been, you know, the same weeks. They've be making very, very steady progress. They captured a village called Svelikovu in the western part of this salient about a week ago. That opened the way for them to reach the main supply road. And they also captured other places closer to this road. And as a result, they were able to block

the road in many, many places. And this has created a supply crisis, which is probably what is behind a lot of this collapse that we've seen. But there is actually one single decision which people are not talking about, but which the Russians are talking about, which explains why the whole Kusk operation, this Kusk operation that Zelensky staked so much of his prestige on, has collapsed in the way that it has done. And that is that apparently about two weeks ago, Zelensky, And Siersky decided to redeploy two Ukrainian brigades that were responsible for protecting Ukrainian positions around Kuzk to other places on the battle flanks, to Pakrovsk and to the area around Doretzk. And then they carried out counterattacks in these places.

Counterattacks, which, from what I understand, have not been particularly successful. But the reason they did this is if you remember, if you take your mind back a couple of weeks, they tried to conduct counterattacks in Kuzk region itself and those were unsuccessful. So they were very keen to conduct counterattacks in some places in order to impress either the Trump administration showing to the Trump administration that Ukraine is still fighting or to impress Zelensky's European friends that Ukraine is still fighting. So the result is that the general area around Kuz, particularly the defenses to the south of Sousja, where these main roads were located, was suddenly very short of infantry to prevent

the Russian advances. And of course, the Russians immediately took advantage of this. So theatrical media operations in Toretsk and Prakosk, which have not been especially successful, have led directly to a major operational crisis in Kuzk. Now, again, as I said, I say all of this, but I think you can see how this is playing up. Now, what has happened is the supply lines around Sujer have been choked. This has created a major problem for the entire Ukrainian grouping in Kuzk. And of course, the Russians independently of the fact that these two Ukrainian brigades were being redeployed to these other places, clearly, carefully planned and were planning for some time and offensive in Korsk region, this extraordinary operation, I mean, this astonishing

operation, which was to send special forces through a gas pipe, which, by the way, you know, if we'd been carried out by Western special forces, we would not be hearing the end of it. There'll be, you know, endless stories and, you know, if it'd been the SAS or Delta Force or some people like that, we'd been hearing a huge amount about it, which, by the way, we should because this is an astonishing operation. Anyway, this operation played an absolutely key role in capturing positions behind Ukrainian lines, throwing the Ukrainians into chaos. But the other big event was that the Russians clearly coordinated and planned this operation

very, very thoroughly. And they launched, as they always do, attacks from multiple directions at once. And this Ukrainian grouping that was both weakened. in the way that I've just said, because those two brigades had been redeployed, and which appears to have had major problems in its command, has suddenly collapsed. So a whole cluster of villages to the north, key villages that had been providing the, you know, defense perimeter around Sousja have all been captured by the Russians, literally in the space of hours, places. This is like Libyedevka, Malaya Lopnia, Novaya Sorocchina, Cherkarskaia, Porrechnoy.

The Russians just swept through all of these places. And the result is exactly what you said, that the main Ukrainian grouping is now retreated to Sousja, this one small town that was the only place of any importance, any notional importance, that they captured in Soushia. And they're now completely encircled there, supposedly around 6,000 men. But all kinds of other Ukrainian troops, formerly in these various villages who've tried to retreat. Many of them are cut off in forests and woods.

They're completely surrounded. They've got no hope of escape. The Russians are hunting them down. Apparently, large groups of Ukrainian soldiers are surrendering. Communications apparently have completely broken down. And in summary, the entire Ukrainian defense system in Kuzk region has collapsed like a house of cards. So you have to look at two things. Bad decisions by Zelensky and Siersky to try to conduct PR counterattacks.

elsewhere along the front lines. They've been trying to do this for weeks now. They tried to do it in Kusk region itself. Then they tried to do it elsewhere in Donbass. And meticulous and very careful planning by the Russians, which has paid incredible dividends. So we're now looking at a immersive operational crisis for the Ukrainians in Korsk region. And this whole operation that Zelensky launched in Kuzk region back in August is about to end in complete disaster. Yeah, the fact that they're redeploying troops from Kursk to areas like Pakrovsk, and back and forth, they've redeployed troops from Dombas to Kersk as well.

So they've been doing this for a while now, but it just speaks to the fact that Ukraine doesn't have enough soldiers for such a huge front line. Or they don't have Andor. They don't have the properly trained of soldiers across this entire front line to stop the Russian advances. So they're constantly finding themselves sending troops to Kursk and taking those troops and sending them to Bakrosk or Sjovj, or Ska, or whatever. Because they just don't have the military to hold off the Russians across such an extensive. the front line of their own making. You've got to remember, Kursk, they chose to extend the front line to Kursk. Ukraine shows this.

So this is their own doing. It is their own doing, yeah. You are absolutely and completely right about this. This is absolutely true. They're juggling brigades from one end of the front line to the other. brigades that are becoming increasingly depleted of manpower and exhausted. And they are trying to sort of beef up these brigades by swamping them or reinforcing them with very untrained, demotivated soldiers who lack the staying power to hold positions.

So it is, it's been a massively ill-judgment. defensive operation, ever since things began to go badly wrong for the Ukrainians, basically, in the spring and summer of last year. They're moving, they're shuffling men around from one part of the front line to another. They are insisting still on conducting counterattacks. When that's the last thing they should be doing in this situation, they should be drawing back and consolidating, not trying to launch counterattacks. The old course cooperation was a massive mistake. It did exactly what you said. It extended the front line and created a bottomless well in which Ukraine has poured its best brigades and much of its best equipment into,

with the result that most of it has now been destroyed. And as it's weakened the Ukrainian positions, overall. And as I said, this constant attempt to mount these counterattacks in various places over an overextended front line is accelerating the whole trend towards ultimate collapse and disaster. Now, already you're seeing a media narrative being spun that all of this is happening because Donald Trump has cut off intelligence and has stopped weapon supplies. to Ukraine. These events that we've seen play out over the last couple of days have had nothing to do with that. The cutting off of intelligence supplies and the cutting off of arms supplies will start to have an effect if it remains in place at some point over the next couple of weeks and months.

But the events that we have seen play out in Kuzk region were already, if you like, wired in as a result of bad decisions, precisely the bad decisions that you've said and the underlying problems that the Ukrainians have been having. They've been wired in for weeks and months. They are the product of the already intense operations. crisis that the Ukrainians have been suffering, and which, even if intelligence is, you know, intelligence again starts to be provided, even if arms supplies were to resume, these systemic problems are not going to go away. They're simply going to go on getting worse and worse and worse. And today, we are seeing a collapse in Kusk. And it's important not to underestimate this. I mean, the psychological effect of the collapse in Kusk is going to be huge in Ukraine itself. In fact, it already is.

But beyond that, many of Ukraine's best soldiers have been lost in Kusk. And now we have large numbers of soldiers in Kusk, soldiers of which Ukraine is in desperately short supply are now in effect surrounded in Cusk and are being killed or will be taken prisoner or all kinds of things like that. And at the same time, as I said, all of the other problems that were already there are gradually accumulating. People need to understand this. Ukraine has lost the war. It can mount the old counterattack. Counterattacks are merely making its problems worse. And in the meantime, when the Russians launch offensives, as they've just done in Kosk, the effect is devastating. Yeah, I mean, it's not only a psychological, a massive psychological defeat.

It removes all of Ukraine's leverage on Russia, or at least what they thought their perceived leverage on Russia, which was we're going to trade Kursk for some other territory. I mean, the narrative around Kersk over the past six months has been shifting endlessly. It did start out as an attempt to capture the Kersk NPP, the power plant. We said that on a video that we did way back in August when the incursion was first launched, we were proven right with that analysis. And that's where Ukraine should have left it. That's where Zelensky and NATO, who's commanding Ukraine, who are making the decisions, NATO, the U.S.

That's where they should have left this incursion. They gave it a go for two weeks, which was very risky, but it did make a kind of sense at the time to try and capture the power plant, given the difficulties that Ukraine was facing across the entire front line. Okay, they launched an operation. They tried to capture a power plant. They tried to capture some other nuclear warheads that allegedly restored in the area. I can't confirm this, but I've heard reports saying that there were some other warheads in and around the end. the Kursk NPP, after that failed, they should have left. They should have abandoned it, left, and that would have been it.

But as is typical of Zelensky and of Siersky, and of the people that are commanding Searsky and are puppeteering Zelensky, they are fighting a media PR war. And they decided that this gives us some media or PR advantages, some sort of leverage, some sort of talking points, some sort of distractions. and they doubled and tripled and quadrupled down, and 60,000 plus troops lost in Kursk, later lost in Kersk, along with thousands of NATO weapons and vehicles. They are now facing a defeat, a huge defeat, with nothing to show for it, absolutely nothing, at a time when they're trying to, where they're being pressured to negotiate some sort of a deal with U.S. President Trump and with Russia.

So, I mean, the whole Kersk fiasco is indicative of the type of war that the collective West has been fighting against Russia, which is, yes, a military war, but above a military war, the emphasis was placed on media spin and PR. And that's why they ended up in this trap that was Kursk. And I think the Russians, they sensed it, that once they went into Kersk, that they, they, would be tempted by their, by their hubris, by their ego to remain in Kursk and to double down and to triple down. And that's exactly what happened. You're absolutely correct. Now, can I just say something about the COS nuclear power plant?

Because we pointed it out at the time. On the very first day, I seem to remember, when the COS nuclear operation began, we came out and said the COSK nuclear power plant is the target. it is the only thing there in this particular area that makes an attack in this direction attractive and important. Of course, there was the usual, well, never exact denials. The Ukraine has never really denied it, but all kinds of people basically, you know, dismissed it. Now, a couple of months ago, at the time when he was making speeches to the Ukrainian parliament

and unveiling his victory plan, Zelenskyy all but admitted this. He actually came out and basically said, you know, that it was in fact the course nuclear power plant that they had been after. People, again, are not paying attention to what Zelensky said, but it is that effective admission by Zelensky was actually made. Now, given that that was the objective, and by the way, it was a terroristic objective, Seizing nuclear power plants and holding them hostage in return for concessions from the other side is an incredible thing to do. I'm not saying it is a violation of the rules of war, of anything else. And as you said, it has a kind of logic behind it. Exactly.

But, you know, it's still an extreme thing to do. But all right, it was their plan. It was their objective. They were losing the war even then. You could just about see why they tried to do it. it. You're absolutely correct. The moment it became clear that it wasn't going to happen, that the course nuclear power plant would be beyond their reach. The Russians rushed enough forces to the area and they had the reserves to do that. The moment it became clear that they

wouldn't be able to reach the nuclear power plant and that they wouldn't be able to capture it, they should have cut their losses and pulled. out and they could have said to everybody, look, we caught the Russians of balance, we achieved this dramatic effect. The Russians were shown that we had this ability to strike at them even on their own territory. And it would have been a PR victory of assault anyway, just say. And of course, the other thing it would have done is that it would have made the Russians extremely cautious about other potential attacks on their territory as well. And that might have tied down Russian troops, protecting places like Bryansk region,

Algaron region, Kuzk region itself, in case the Ukrainians tried to do the same thing. But absolutely, as you absolutely read, say, the Ukrainians couldn't give up on it. Zelensky couldn't give up on it. And Zelensky's curators in the West, in London and Washington and Paris and Brussels, They couldn't give up on it either. So they gave shifting explanations for why the Ukrainians were there, that they were diverting forces, Russian forces from the Dombas, which was never true, that it could be used as a bargaining chip to swap territory with, you know, that the Russians had captured in other places, that they

would be able to swap it for the Zaporozian nuclear power plant. All of these shifting explanations, none of which made any kind of sense. But what he did was it kept a large part of the Ukrainian army there, not just a large part, but the best part of the Ukrainian army there. And, well, about two months ago, the Russians started to go on the counter, you know, a sustained counterattack in this area. And then the decision should have been made to pull those troops out. All that the Ukrainians have done, exactly as you said, is that they're the weaker party.

And they've stretched and overextended the front line, causing massive problems for their own resources. But no, they persisted in doing it. Just a month ago, Zelensky was still talking about the important. of holding on to Kusk because he was going to swap territory in Kusk with territory that the Russians had captured in other places. And the result was that he kept the Ukrainian troops in Kusk, and now they're trapped in Sousja, and others are trapped in other places, and hundreds of surrendering, and hundreds of others have been killed. And this is on top of the probably thousands of troops who've been killed and wounded and taken prisoners.

are in Kuskal Ready, and the hundreds of items of military equipment that have been lost. And as you said, it is a complete disaster. It's what happens when you run a war, not on the basis of rational military choice, but as a exercise in media management and narrative construction. And this has been the problem all along. It's not just Zelensky who is doing this. What we now have gradually come to understand is that it's Ukraine's Western backers that have been doing this as well.

They've constantly been pushing the Ukrainians to make these illogical decisions, which are always in the end, turned out badly for the Ukrainians and have played into the hands of the Russians. Yeah, let's not forget that the whole Kersk incursion was used as a pretext, as an excuse for the Biden administration to greed light long-range missile strikes into Russia as well, escalating us to the point of World War III, the North Korean troops in Kersk and Biden meeting with his team and saying that, okay, because there's North Korean troops in Kersk. In Kursk, I give you guys the green light to launch attack those missiles into Russia, of course, using U.S. intel and surveillance and satellites and putting the U.S. in direct conflict with Russia, launching attacks into Russian territory. I mean, we almost entered World War III because this narrative, this incursion, which got out of control, the narrative around this concurusion got way out of control. and it almost took us to the point of a nuclear war. But the other thing that when I look at Kursk, it tells me is that no matter what Trump does, the Trump administration, whether they pause intel sharing, whether they continue

until sharing, whether they pause weapons or continue weapons and money, they cannot win. They cannot win. It doesn't matter what they do at this. point in time, they cannot and will not make a difference in this conflict. The only thing that the Trump administration can do is maybe they, if they continue to give support in Intel, maybe they prolong the eventual defeat of the Ukraine military end of the collective West. But they cannot win because, as you rightly said, this had nothing to do with Intel sharing. This had nothing to do with Trump's weapons pause. Kursk was going to be won by the Russian military

Harry, no matter what, they were going to win it. And the fact that they went through a pipeline and they went through with this very dangerous operation, to me, signals that Russia is so motivated and so determined to win this conflict that there's nothing that collective West can do. And they should absolutely walk away from this thing. That's when I see something like this pipeline operation, if I was Trump, I would just be saying we're not going to win this. Russia will do whatever they need to do to come out victorious, even if it means 12 kilometers through a pipeline. Absolutely correct.

This is, I completely agree with every point you just made. I think in fairness to the Trump people, they do understand this. I mean, the Biden people were in denial about it. I mean, Blinken apparently right to the very bitter end was still talking about, you know, doing something that would keep the war going and end in some kind of victory or other. But I think that the Trump people, people like Vance and Higgs, and Trump himself are much more realistic in their understanding of the actual military situation. that they understand that the Russians have won and that this is irreversible. And as you absolutely correctly say, that the Russians have the motivation and the resolution to see this through. And I don't doubt about that.

Now, about that special forces operation, 12 kilometers down this pipe is astonishing. It is an extraordinarily risky operation. It shows that the men who were doing it were both highly trained, trained up to the level of Western special forces. Let's say that straight forwardly. And incredibly highly motivated because the risks involved in doing this are huge. And that the Russians have special forces that are prepared to do this, that are prepared to take those risks. And that the Russians are able and willing to put those. soldiers at risk. Special forces are expensive troops, but the Russians obviously feel they have

enough of them that they can risk deploying at least 100, perhaps more, on a very, very risky operation of this kind. And they carried it off. It was completely successful. To repeat again, if this had been a Western special forces operation, we'd have, you know, enormous cover. of it all across the media. And rightly so, by the way, because this is an astonishing thing that the Russians pulled off. Just to say a few things about this operation, by the way. Firstly, the Russians appear to have used the very same gas pipes that were transferring the gas to Europe and which the Ukrainians switched off in January. I know. Unbelievable. Yeah.

I mean, that's just an unbelievable point that you bring up. Yes. Yeah. They did this to themselves. They did this to themselves. Exactly. And they didn't, even though, as I said, the Russians had previously carried out operations through pipes, they didn't prepare for this.

I mean, this took them completely by surprise. I mean, again, it shows how disorganized in some respects the Ukrainian command is. Now, I'm pretty sure, by the way, that the Russians were aware of that. And that was why they went ahead with this operation, because an operation is complicated and as risky as this, depends on very high levels of intelligence. So it shows, as I said, both incredible skill and daring to pull off something like this. And it also shows, again, the completely chaotic decision-making that we see on the part of Ukraine and how they were really. repeatedly do things to themselves that are entirely counterproductive. Yeah, they should have listened to FITZO.

He was complaining, don't shut off the gas. Don't shut off the gas. No, no, we're going to shut off. We're going to stick it to Russia. Yeah. Because we're going to shut off the gas, right, Ursula. Ursula, we're going to shut off the gas transit to Russia and really stick it to the Russian economy. Oh, boy.

Just the final question to wrap things up. where does this leave Zelensky and his regime, the Kersk defeat? Where does this leave the collective West? The UK, Europe, NATO, that has been commanding this war. What happens next? Let's not get into the negotiations that are taking place. We'll do a separate video on the actual diplomacy and the negotiations. But just in general, where does this leave Ukraine and the collective West as far as this war? fighting this war. Russians are also in Sumi as well. They also have a foothold in Sumi, which is important. Perhaps could be very important. Absolutely. Well, the first thing to say is, I mean, as of the moment of making this program, the worst is still to come because the Ukrainians are still held up in Sousja. They're surrounded there. There's probably going to be a siege,

probably not a very prolonged siege. But, you know, the defeat, the worst part of the defeat, which is now inevitable, is probably still ahead of us. Now, it's going to shake Zelensky's position in Kiev, because he is the person who's talked about Kors Mosque, he's the person who's took credit for it at the beginning. He was the person, he was the person who insisted that he'd be continued. He's the man who's talked about how this provided Ukraine with all kinds of bargaining chips.

and all of that, inevitably it's going to lead to more criticism of Zelensky in Ukraine, and inevitably it's going to lead to more criticism of Siersky as well. Whether that will be sufficient to cause a real crisis for Zelensky in Kiev, that I simply don't know. I mean, I've already been saying in previous programs that for the moment at least, His position has looked more stable than it had appeared to me to be a year ago, because the Europeans are backing him. He's been able to consolidate his position as de facto leader of Ukraine and all of that.

But now the doubts are going to grow. The criticisms are going to grow. The blame is going to be put on him. People in Ukraine are already very disenchanted. are going to be very, very angry. And I can't believe that this will not be without political consequences for Zelensky's position at a time when challenges to his rule are starting to appear. And when Timoshenko in particular is now, I think, starting to scent the wind and is beginning

to position herself. So that's Zelensky. In the collective West, well, I'm going to say it. I think in Europe and all of these places. tragically and disastrously, what they're all going to do is it's not going to make them change their perspective on the wall. They're going to see this instead as a media problem, which is what they always do, a narrative problem.

And their immediate instinct is not going to be to re-examine what's happening in the war. It's going to try to find some tale that they could spin in the media to explain this all away. And we know what that's going to be because we already see the articles starting to appear. It's all the fault of Donald Trump because he cut off the intelligence and stopped the arms supplies. even though, to repeat again, this can have had absolutely no bearing whatsoever with what is playing out in Kusk now. I mean, it was already baked in as a result of bad decisions made over many, many months. We would be in exactly the same position today, exactly the same position today in Kusk, if that decision to interrupt. the intelligence and the arms flow had not been made a couple of days ago.

So that's the first thing to say about that. But that's what they're going to do. They're going to try to blame Trump for this disaster, even though the blame is their own and Zelensky's and no one else is. And I'm afraid it's not going to change their perspective on the wall. That's the attitudes in Europe. That's the attitudes amongst the Democrats of the United States. That's all of those people.

Within the Trump administration, when I hope this does, it is going to harden the view of those people, including, by the way, many people I understand in the US military now, who understand that the war is lost and that what the United States needs to do, do is to extricate itself from it and to distance itself from the disaster in Ukraine which is to come. So I think that will be the dominant position in the United States, the ascendant position in the United States. But in Europe, we can already see the narrative that has been concocted. It's going to be concocted in parts of the American media as well. And it is important that we call it out now, that it is a completely false narrative. And I think the Trump people, if they are, you know, going to, you know, they should be ready for it and they should be ready to refute it now as well.

That's my question to you. That's my final question, a very quick question, which is should the Trump administration, seeing what's coming, you're to blame for the curse collapse because you paused intel or weapons or whatever. Complete lies, but that's the narrative that's going to be coming at them. Should they come out and say Kursk was lost? Kersk was lost. Russia was going to win this. It had nothing to do with Intel sharing it, nothing to do with weapons, nothing to do with any of that stuff. The Russian military was going to defeat Ukraine in Kursk. It was a 100% given. Should they come out and say that? Because if they say that in the way that I'm saying it, it's going to cause a cause a lot of shock and horror in NATO, in the UK. I can imagine the UK media is going to

probably their heads are going to explode if the Trump White House comes out and says stuff like that. But I really think they need to put out a message that's crystal clear. Russia has won this war. Russia was going to defeat Ukraine and Kursk. This had absolutely nothing to do with any of our policies, whether it was escalation or de-escalation. Should they come out and say this? Or should they just remain quiet? Absolutely, they should say it. If they don't say it, the risk they run is that people will accept the competing narrative, that it's their fault. Obviously, they should say it.

They should come out, you know, swinging, saying this is absolutely untrue. Anybody who's followed the trend of the fighting in Kuzk over the last couple of months could see. that this is where it was heading. And to assume, to pretend that the fact that intelligence sharing stopped for a couple of days has had any bearing at all over what has happened in Korsk or the fact that there's been a cessation at arms supplies for a couple of days, that that is an absolute barefaced shining lie. They need to say that now. Yeah.

I mean, I ask you a question. It's an obvious answer that you give an obvious question, but I pose it to you because if they were to come out swinging in the manner that you say, Alexander, I mean, people in the collective West, the neocons, the Nio-Libs, the UK media, I mean, the EU, they're going to be furious if the Trump White House comes out with that type of messaging. They're furious already. I mean, I mean, just the people who matter are not those people. And those people can be as angry as they wish. They can't change anything. The people that matter are the people in the United States who voted the election and elected Donald Trump. A group which I suspect is growing, by the way, despite all the recession worries and all of that. They're the people that need to be convinced and who are, I think, absolutely receptive to these explanations. It's not as if these people have.

are willing any longer to accept anyway the things that the media, the mainstream media and, you know, the Europeans and those sort of people are saying, they've already been extremely skeptical about this. So, you know, if the Trump administration people come out and say this is completely untrue, this is false, they will accept that. And that is the constituency that ultimately matters. No other. All right, we will add the video there. The durand.com. We are on Rumble, odyssey, pitch, you, Telegram, RockFit, and X.

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