The Duran Podcast - Zelensky in a box, prepares to visit the USA

Episode Date: September 17, 2023

Zelensky in a box, prepares to visit the USA

All right, Alexander, let's do an update as to what is going on in Ukraine. And we have Elletsky traveling to the U.S. for a UN meeting, a general assembly meeting, where Lavrov will also be there. They might actually be in the same room. We'll see what happens if that does occur. And, of course, he's going to be meeting with Biden, and he's going to be running around Congress looking for money and for support. the two big items on on the list for for Biden and for Elletsky is the $24 billion in military and

financial aid, which Congress is kind of holding up. And of course, the attackums. A little bit F-16 stuff, but more, I think more of the focus will be on getting the attackums to Ukraine. And then we have the situation on the front lines where it seems everything's pretty static, I guess. I don't see much movement from the Ukraine side of things. Rumors about Andrevka being captured by Ukraine, but I think those rumors have been debunked. And I'm trying to think if there's anything else. Andrevka is Bahmut region. So I don't know. Is there anything else going on on the front line? Well, there's nothing. There's nothing going on on the front lines.

in terms of progress of Ukraine's offensive. I mean, an awful lot is happening in terms of the numbers of people who are being killed every day. And we've had a report now. There's been some Russian journalists from, you know, one of the big media outlets. They've actually gone to Rabotino Verbovovo, to this area. They've actually seen the situation. And they verify pretty much everything we've said. We've been saying, you know, this area is still contested.

There's been no Ukraine. breakthrough and a point we've made ourselves in previous programs that Ukraine is now reduced to attacking these places and along the front line with men on foot they they don't have the tanks and the armoured vehicles any longer to you know launch proper you know armoured assaults and of course there's reasons why they wouldn't want to do that anyway which is that as we've seen repeatedly when they do try and deploy armor against the Russian fortifications, the armor gets destroyed. So the result is that they're attacking on foot. They're taking enormous casualties. And some people, and it's more than one person now. There's been various people who track

these things. They've been adding up the numbers. They think that the numbers of Ukrainian soldiers killed and wounded every day is now rising. It's now higher than it's ever been. been at any other time in the war. Between five, I've seen one pretty reliable source saying it's around 500,000 killed or wounded a day, perhaps higher than that. And the interesting

thing is that as that's happening, as the Ukrainian losses are growing, and this next we can say with some certainty, Russian losses are falling. We've had MediaZona, which is this partner company that works with the BBC.

They do analyses of Russian losses based on obituary notices, funerals, that kind of thing. Open source intelligence and it's pretty reliable. I mean, you know, it's hard data. And they show that after a brief spike in June, when the offensive began, in the second half of July, Russian losses began to tail down. And they continue to tail down throughout August. And they tailed down further, apparently, in September. And now they are at their lowest rate since the special military operation began.

So, you know, Ukrainian losses are rising to the highest level since the conflict began. Russian losses are falling to the lowest level since the conflict began. The one, perhaps, you know, you can. argue about the Ukrainian losses, but it does seem to be the case, and we know that Ukrainian losses are very high. The decline in Russian losses, I think, is indisputable. I mean, I think that media's owner's methodology, I've always said this, they work with the BBC, but I accept it. I think it's a good methodology. And you know, you mentioned the fact that all these losses are not achieving anything, because that's the thing to understand.

This is a Ukrainian offensive that's underway. It's supposed to be gaining ground. If it's completely static, then of course it means the offensive is failing. And you mentioned Andreevka. I think you're absolutely right. I think the claim that they captured Andrei, which is another small village, not a big place, not a particularly important place near Bachman.

The report that they've captured it, I think, has been debunked. But more to the point, if you follow the war as carefully as I do, which, you know, few people do, you will know that a month ago, Ukraine was saying that they'd captured Andreifka before. It's a bit like Rabotino. It's one of those other places that the Ukrainians say they've captured multiple times. And in each case, when you home in, you discover that it's not actually a lot. the case. So this is looking very bad. It's an offensive that's going horribly wrong. Losses have been extremely high. Losses of equipment have been extremely high. And yes, they're able to lob missiles

at Crimea. Some of them every so often get through. Some of them cause some damage. But the reality on the battlefronts is of attrition working very badly against Ukraine. And in the middle of all of that, of course, Mr. Zelensky is packing his bags and going to New York and Washington. Yeah, let's talk about that. He's going to New York and to Washington. What do you think's going to happen? Last trip, last trip he made the official visit that he made to the U.S. We all remember his speech to Congress, talking about Bahmout. It's a turning point in the conflict and then presenting the Ukraine flag signed by Bahamut soldiers to Pelosi and to Kamala Harris. And everyone was was excited, exuberant.

Everyone felt that this is it. You know, the Ukraine military is going to defeat the Russian military. That was what we were presented with when he was speaking in Congress. This trip is going to be a lot different, I think. Well, it's completely different. I mean, the mood is completely different. The last trip, it was a state of euphoria, that just been the Ukrainian offensives in Kharkov and Hurson region.

which at least, which captured a lot of territory and in the one in Hurson region captured Hurson City, the Ukrainians seemed to be, you know, on a rising, winning streak. There was lots of talk about the offensive, the one that we've just been talking about now, but it was supposed to happen in the spring. And, of course, there was already fighting around Bahamud, which, of course, the Ukrainians controlled at the time.

but of course Zelensky was telling everybody it wouldn't fall and of course he was waving the flag in Congress and he was getting standing evasions and it looked like the Ukrainians were going to win or at least that's what the official line said there were people who were skeptical and who were expressing doubts about this we were expressing doubts about this

on the Duran at the time but of course that wasn't the official line and that wasn't the mood now he comes of the back of a failed country offensive. And he's not even been able to capture, you know, any important place. He's not broken through the Suravikin line. Remember that?

You remember how two weeks ago, three weeks ago, they were saying that they'd broken through the Suraviken line. They were marching on to Topmac. The advance would gain momentum. They would accelerate from that point onwards. Well, I mean, that hasn't happened. He hasn't captured any important place. His floating stories that his forces have captured Andrei Fka, but as we said, that isn't true.

And all he can do at the moment is lob missiles at Crimea, which do a certain amount of damage when they do get through, but nothing else. So he's coming empty-handed. He's got absolutely nothing to show for all that huge investment in money and weapons that he got last year. and his patron, Joe Biden, is now in increasing political difficulty, but for what it's worth, he's got to come, and the real purpose he's going is not because he wants to go to the UN. That's the excuse. If he goes to the UN, we know that most UN states don't like him.

He wasn't invited to the G20 summit. The Indians didn't want him there. He had a very bruising and unhanging. happy encounter with Prime Minister Modi of India at the G7 summit in Tokyo. You remember, we discussed it. And I said after reading the Indian readout, it was only then that it became clear to me how badly that meeting went. He stood up a meeting with President Lula of Brazil, who was furious over it. So he's not popular with most people in the UN, most of the countries in the UN, other than the

less than once. And nonetheless, he says that he's going, but that's not his real destination. He certainly doesn't want to meet Lavrov. He's going to Washington. And he's going to Washington for two reasons. Firstly, because he's begging again, he's going to bring out the begging bowl and ask for more weapons and more money, because that's all he's able to do now. I mean, that is what he is reduced to doing. His problem is that he's not coming. He's not coming. He's not, asking for money and weapons in order to win. He's asking for money and weapons so that he doesn't lose. So his story, his message is going to be a different one.

Not perhaps so much in public, but behind the scenes. And that's the first thing. And the second thing he needs to do, at least as far as he's concerned, is he's got to find some way of scotching. this pressure that we've talked about from the Americans to open talks with the Russians. We discussed this in recent programs, this meeting that he had with Blinken in Kiev, which went badly, at least from Zelensky's point of view, the meetings that he's had with the Danes and with Beirbop from Germany.

The fact that people are telling him, you know, you've got to start negotiations. Ukraine has got to make the first move. Putin has rejoined. He doesn't want to negotiate under any circumstances because, of course, he knows perfectly well that if he does politically in Kiev, he is toast. So he wants to block negotiations. He wants to get the Americans to recommit to Ukraine,

to give the Ukrainians to give him more money and more arms. He needs to come back to Kiev, showing that that's what he's achieved. and he's also got to kill off all of this talk of negotiations. And it's a tall order. I mean, he's got his allies and he's got his friends in Washington. So, you know, he's got plenty of levers to pull and friends to speak to and lobby for him. But in Congress, the Republican mood, I think, is hardening.

There's still plenty of rhinos who want to go on supporting Ukraine. but we see that McCarthy is coming under increasing pressure amongst the Republicans in the House. And it's not going to be as easy a ride for him as it was last year. Yeah, the rhinos are trying to save Zelensky by pushing the whole elections 2024 thing. That's how they're trying to save Olensky. Give him this final round of money and weapons and we'll have elections in a year. It'll be a whole new political landscape after that. But, you know, listening to you, it sounds like this trip for Zelensky is about his own personal survival.

It's not about Ukraine. It's not even so much about winning or losing, to be quite honest. It sounds like he's going to meet with Biden and to beg to get money and weapons. Because if he doesn't come back with the money and weapons, then, you know, he may not survive. I mean, politically, maybe even as, as, as, you know, who knows? I won't say anything. Who knows what, uh, what the Bandarites might do? Well, you know, I mean, we're talking about Ukraine. We're talking about Ukraine here. So this is like an all or nothing for Zeletsky's, his, his whole political existence is on the line here. Absolutely. His whole political

existence is on the line. You're absolutely right. And, and, and, you know, you're, you're, you're perfectly right to hint at the other thing because you're quite right. That is, this is Ukraine. And bear in mind, he doesn't just have to watch the bandarides in Kiev. He's also going to be worried about some people in Washington now, because he's coming out. Some people in Washington want negotiations. He's standing fast, he's standing hard. He says he doesn't want negotiations.

But of course, we're starting to see a divergence between the interests of the political leadership of the United States and Zelensky in Kiev. And we know perfectly well that on other occasions, when political leaders becoming convenient, the United States has means to remove them. So, I mean, do bear that in mind. It's happened in Vietnam. It's happened in other places. They can do it. I mean, you know, ask the ghost of President Zem. Ask, you know, that man who was there in Afghanistan, the United States can shuffle you out and put someone else in your place

and begin negotiations without you. And, you know, if you are no longer in the presidency, then, of course, you lose your security detail. You've run even further risks. So he is concerned now. You're absolutely correct about his own political survival. And if you're talking about Ukraine, about the interests of Ukraine. Well, I would say that the interests of Ukraine all along have been completely clear and entirely obvious,

going all the way back to 2014 and before, they need to come to some kind of long-term, sustainable arrangement with the Russians. there are times when even Zelensky himself has acknowledged this. But of course, he's no longer able to do that because of the extremely hard-line positions. He's taken over the course of the war. He went back on the agreement in Istanbul that was reached last year. He's passed laws which prohibit negotiations with the Russians. a fact that Putin pointed out.

Putin gave an interview whilst he was in the Far East. He said, you know, people are always telling me we should start negotiations. We should go for negotiations with Ukraine. Blinken tells us start negotiations with Ukraine. How can we negotiate with Ukraine when Ukraine itself has passed laws or presidential decrees that reject negotiations? I mean, it is illogical. It's not we who have to make the first move.

It is Ukraine, in other words, Zelensky himself. Zelensky cannot just scrap those decrees. Not after all that has happened. So he is in that trap. He can't negotiate. He can't begin discussions with the Russians, even though, as I said, that is what is in the best interests of Ukraine. So what he's going to do instead is he's going to go to Washington and try the firm up support there.

And of course, it's not, as you absolutely rightly said, about Ukraine's best interests. It's about his. Yeah, he needs to buy some time and space. But, you know, his hardline position, would you say it's, I mean, he's been boxed into taking this hardline position. You know, not that he doesn't have agency, but, you know, He believed Boris Johnson. He believed the neocons. The hardline position against Russia was very much an effect of neocon pressure on Zelensky to take a hard line.

Now it looks like Boris Johnson, the neocons, the neolibs, the Anthony Blinkins of the world seem to be, you know, turning their back on this advice that they gave Zelensky a year ago to take a hard line. Now they're changing it up. And they're saying, you know, it's the offensive failed. So we're going to have to start to talk to the Russians. So, I mean, they've changed their tune, given the reality on the ground and the reality in the United States with the elections. But another dynamic that has pushed Elensky that has boxed Zelensky in with this hardline position are those Banderites.

I mean, he can't, yes, he can't negotiate because the neocons way back when pushed them to take a hard line. But the Bandarites have also told him, don't you dare negotiate with Russia or else. I mean, he understands this. Well, absolutely. He made those decrees. He can't negotiate. Yeah. He passed those decrees in order to appease the Banderites. I mean, they were, they were suspicious of him from the outset because, of course, he became president as the peace candidate. I mean, when he became, when he was elected president of Ukraine, you know, all those years ago, he did so on the basis that he would negotiate with the Russians and achieve peace in Ukraine and he would give Russian the language some status within Ukraine and he talked about Russian,

talked in Russian in public. And of course, that made the band arise extremely suspicious of him. And then of course he compounded things from. their perspective by negotiating with the Russians last year. There were the negotiations in Belarus and there were the negotiations in March. And there was the Istanbul agreement, which the bandarides, obviously people like that are not going to be happy with at all. But he was prepared at that time to do it. Then of course, the Americans and the British came in and they sabotaged all those negotiations. Zelensky found himself in a very difficult position. because he wasn't able to proceed with the negotiations that he had gone along with,

and at the same time, the Banderites were both angry with him, but also in the ascendant. So in order to get them off, he's back, he issued, he published these decrees, in which he ruled out all negotiations with the Russians. So this is why he did what he did. Now, as I said, it makes it all but impossible for him to go back on that. So, you know, the interesting part about this is that the Bandarites are also the very same people that are being controlled by the neocons as well. So, you know, he's in such a difficult position of his own doing, of his own doing. And I just wonder, is there a way out for him?

I would suggest that there is, there actually is, you know, I thought there was one, and that's getting in touch with Russia, but I mean, do you see any other way outside of calling up Putin and saying, you know, Putin, this is, this is Volodomir Zelensky? Can you provide me with, with some safety in Russia? I can't think of any other way for him out of this, out of this mess. Well, there is a way out for him, which is a way out personally for him. And it is, believe it or not, being discussed now in Ukraine itself. And apparently in some of the way, public places. His opinion poll ratings have collapsed. I mean, he's now becoming, this is the other difference between the situation last year when he went to Washington and the situation now. Last year, he was, you know, according to the opinion poll ratings in Ukraine, he was enormously popular. Now his ratings are collapsing. He's offensive has failed. Thousands of people, hundreds of thousands of people are dead or wounded. So, and there's no sign of victory coming. So, so, it's already been spoken about in Ukraine that the right thing for Zelensky to do is to step down

for him to go and it might come to that but of course stepping down is dangerous in itself in a place like Ukraine it's not something you can just do you can't just walk away you need to negotiate it very very carefully and I'm not sure that Zelensky knows how to do that anyway. Yeah, I was just about to say that. It's not so easy as just saying, you know, I failed and I'm passing it off to someone else, and they're going to leave you alone. He knows too much.

They're going to blame him for everything that's gone wrong, and he's made, I imagine he's made a countless amount of enemies. Absolutely. And if he steps down in this way, they're going to go after. I mean, I don't know. Russia may be his only, his only exit. Well, indeed. Well, I think by now the Russians are so angry with him as well that, I mean, you know,

he probably wouldn't find a very warm reception there. But, I mean, bear something in mind for Zelensky to step down. I mean, there is talk about this, as I said, in Ukraine. There's certainly talk about it, I'm sure, in Washington as well. But of course, the other thing about doing that is that it would be a momentous event. If Zelensky steps down, it will communicate to Western electorates that this person that has been built up for them into this hero figure is failing or has failed. That will change even further public perception of the conflict. And of course, within Ukraine itself, it's difficult to know what the effect of that would be.

when the Americans did bring down arranged the removal of Zem in Vietnam and he was killed by the way Ziam was murdered over the course of the coup that removed him and when they did remove

when they did engineer the removal the eventual end politically of Hymed Karsai remember him when that happened then what happened was that it became very clear that however unstable the political structure that existed was, you know, in Saigon and in Kabul, it found such stability and legitimacy as it had from the long-standing leader that it had, you know,

that had been there. The moment Ziem and Karzai left the scene, the situation became much more unstable. The Americans found it very, very difficult to find somebody who could simply step in and take over and stabilise the situation in ways that they wanted. The same was true, to an even greater extent, by the way, in Iraq, whilst the Americans were there. So, you know, it's all very well saying, you know,

get Zelensky out of the scene. One can see why it might have benefits, but it can also come with a lot of people, problems and who takes over from him? I mean, who is the person you bring back? I mean, do you bring back Poroshenko? I've seen it suggested. I mean, he's perhaps more trusted by the Banderites than Zelensky will ever be, but he lost an election and he's not a especially popular figure in Ukraine. If you don't bring in Poroshenko, who else do you, who else do you turn to? We may find out. All right.

So the Duran.locals.com. We are on Rumble, Odyssey, but shoots, telegram, and X, and go to the Duran shop. 10% off. Use the code. Good day. Take care.