The Duran Podcast - Zelensky panics as attention and resources shift to Israel

Episode Date: October 12, 2023

Zelensky panics as attention and resources shift to Israel The Duran: Episode 1719

All right, Alexander, let's do a quick video on Ukraine because we have another conflict which is sucking up all of the oxygen as far as media coverage goes. But the conflict grinds on in Ukraine. What are the latest updates? Well, the military just quickly touch on the military situation and we don't have to spend a huge amount of time on it. I think now the overwhelming consensus is that the military offensive, Ukraine's great military offensive of the spring and summer is now essentially ended. They've run out of men and machines and shells, and they seem to be now on the defensive pretty much everywhere. There's been no sign of this, this amphibious landing across the NEPA, increasing doubt that this can happen. The weather conditions are turning bad. and in every place, every part of the front lines

where we've seen fighting over the course of the spring and summer and autumn in Bahmuts, in Zaporosia, in further north in Kupiansk, it's the Russians who are now gradually taking the initiative and who are going on the offensive. Not yet in a big way, because the Russians are still preparing and they are preparing massively. But Ukraine is no longer able to sustain its offensive. And the war, I think, has now turned a decisive corner.

And from this point on, it's just a question of the Russians going on applying more and more pressure until eventually Ukraine cracks. I think that's where we are in military terms. Okay, so the big question. that I have for you is obviously connected to the conflict in Israel. How does Russia benefit or not benefit? And I'm speaking in context to the conflict in Ukraine.

How does Russia benefit or not benefit from what's happening in Israel? Obviously, people can argue there's a media benefit in that the focus is no longer on the conflict in Ukraine anymore from a media perspective. It's on Israel. So everyone's forgotten. about Ukraine. And so, you know, I guess that's good in a certain respect for Russia. Though my belief is that Russia probably couldn't care less, they're going to do what they need to do in the special military operation, whether CNN covers it or not. And then Ukraine.

How does what's happening in Israel affect Ukraine and the Zelensky regime? I think it's pretty obvious. Money, military aid, if you had to choose, if they had to choose, if they're the collective West had to choose between Israel and Ukraine, it's obviously which country is going to get the bulk of the money and the weapons. Well, that's not good news for Zelensky. Your thoughts? Well, I mean, firstly, the first thing to say is I think you're absolutely right that the Russians have their plans. They've worked out their plans. They probably worked out their plans last year. They're working towards their objective. They're not going to let themselves be distracted by events in the Middle East, they're going to press on with what they always planned to do. It's a massive build-up.

And we're talking about something like a million men are going to be deployed in the Russian war effort in Ukraine by around, well, the first half, maybe mid-year 2024. A force, by the way, which is about the size that Putin said Russia would need if it planned to. to capture Kiev. Just to say, he actually said that. And if you look at all the numbers of troops that are now being called up, the numbers of troops that have been trained, the equipment, he's going to end up with a military about that size.

So, you know, I'm not saying that his plan is to capture Kiev, but that gives you a sense of the scale of what is happening. by some time around, some point in 2024, when all this is ready, he's going to have massive options opening up before him, which what goes on in the Middle East, I can't see how that's going to affect that at all. So I think that's the Russian side. For the Ukrainian side, I think what's happening in the Middle East,

in Israel is an absolute disaster. Because, of course, what the Ukrainians needed to do, above all, was to keep the focus of Western attention on themselves. They needed to make the war in Ukraine the single biggest constant subject topic in the West. Keep Western publics involved. Keep Western governments engaged. Keep the arms industries involved. Keeping the money flowing to them.

Now, if they're having to compete with Israel, Israel finding itself in this kind of conflict. If the Middle East starts exploding, and it's possible that it may, well, they cannot compete with that. And we are already getting more and more reports about Western military arsenals being depleted. Everybody now acknowledges that there's a massive ammunition shortage,

there's not enough shells to go around. If Ukraine has to complete with Israel for funding, and with Israel for shells, then it is going to lose. There is no doubt about this. The focus will be on Israel. It will no longer be on Ukraine. And that will accelerate the now inevitable collapse. Yeah.

You know what could be the worst situation for Ukraine? Is that Biden actually gets some money to be given to Ukraine? Maybe not the 100 billion that the telegraph was talking about. where they label it one and done. Here's $100 billion. Now go away and just fight the Russians that don't bother us anymore. That's pretty much what the Telegraph was reporting. But even if it's $50 billion or $20 billion, $30 billion,

the worst situation for Ukraine is that they actually get that money and they fight Russia and they're going to lose, but they manage to just hold off a little bit longer. But this time, without any of the media attention focused on Ukraine, because it's all focused on Israel. I mean, they would basically be fighting Russia to a defeat. The war drags on another three, six, nine months. They get ground down even more.

And the media is not even paying attention. No one's paying attention. I think that would be such a bad outcome for Ukraine. Zelensky should come to the table, facilitate, negotiate, negotiate. Yes, I think that's exactly correct. That is exactly what he should do. Of course, he's not going to. He's not able to do so. I think he's boxed himself in. I think that the Ukrainian government altogether is boxed in. I know there's people who say that Ukraine needs to start negotiating quickly. There was an article, there was a piece about this by Stephen Bryan in Asia Times about the need for Ukraine to begin to go because time is running out. And it's absolutely true.

But if you look at the political setup in Ukraine, there is nobody there who is in any kind of position or who shows any real understanding of the need for negotiations. What is much more likely to happen is that they will continue, they will fight on. And as you absolutely rightly say, if they get some money, it will enable them to eke it out for a few more weeks and months,

even as the focus of the West and indeed of most of the world moves to something else. Of course, the Russians will not let themselves get distracted. For them, Ukraine is still the most important single issue. All you have to do is to look at what Russian political leaders are saying, what Russian newspapers are writing, what Russian talk shows are discussing. they will remain single-mindedly focused on Ukraine. But of course the rest of the world will have moved on and Ukraine will be left alone and to its own devices.

Whereas if funding was stopped now, well, that might trigger something, that might force some kind of outcome. It might even lead to a faster collapse, which might actually create some space for some new political force conceivably to emerge in Ukraine and for some kind of negotiation to get started. Even that's by no means certain.

But at least it would force the Ukrainians to make decisions now, which if they get the funding, they won't make until it's basically too late for them. Yeah, a final question. This is going to probably be one of the shortest Ukraine updates we've had in a while. but here's here's a final question for you the all the weapons that they were planning to deliver to Ukraine whatever weapons they have left the collective west the f-16s the f whatever all the fighter jets all the tanks all the tackles all the tourist missiles everything that they were planning to deliver to Ukraine the training of the pilots and this roadmap that they had to get weapons to Ukraine

the discussions and the debates about long-range missiles that Congress was engaged in. It's all gone now, isn't it, because of what's going on in Israel, I imagine. I mean, the neocons probably believe that they have an infinite amount of weapons, but reality is that there's a certain inventory of weapons, and that's what the U.S. has. So what happens now with all of the talk of weapons, whether it's fighter jets, attack, them, tourists in the U.S., in Germany? I mean, what is Ukraine thinking now? These weapons, once again, if there's a choice as to where the attackams go, I'm just using the attack as an example,

if there's a choice where ammunition goes, it goes to Israel, not Ukraine. I mean, your thoughts there. Absolutely, I think this is exactly correct. Now, I mean, I think Ukraine will probably still get its F-16s because these are old F-16s left over from the Cold War, previously in the possession of Netherlands and Denmark and other places. I don't think Israel has any use or need for these planes, so there's no direct competition between Ukrainian needs and Israeli needs.

The only thing is, I mean, the universal view is that these planes are completely outmatched by what the Russians have, and it's not going to make any difference. But in terms of everything else, it's going to be different. If we're talking about attackers, there's only limited numbers of these missiles. It's quite plausible that Israel is going to lead long-range missiles. So I can very easily see Israel needing long-range missiles coming to the United States, asking for attack-missiles. The United States has made no public promise to Ukraine to supply Ukraine with attack him's missiles.

Biden might have said something in private to Zelensky, but they can go back on that at any moment. If Israel asks for attack of missiles, it's going to get them, and Ukraine might not. And other things, Israel will need surface-to-air missiles. I mean, already it's been, you know, it's having to fight off drone and missile attacks by Hamas and by Hezbollah. These are cheap missiles and cheap drones that the Hamas and Hezbollah are hurling at Israel. That means that Israel is going to need large numbers of surface-to-air missiles.

It's got its own iron dome system, of course. It produces them. But it's probably, this goes on a long time, and Prime Minister Netanyahu is talking about a long war, they're going to need surface-to-air missiles in the United States, inevitably. And there aren't that many in the United States either, and inevitably, inexorably, they're going to be transferred to Israel. Israel will get priority in time over what Ukraine gets.

So that's going to open up more of Ukraine's airspace to Russian bombers. The Russian Air Force is now extremely active article in the London Times, for example, a couple of days ago, which said that a place like O'Rejov, which is in Zaporosia region, is a major staging area for Ukraine, gets bombed, 20. to 30 times a day by the Russian Air Force. We could soon see that spreading to ever more places in Ukraine. So, no, they're not going to get those missiles. And of course, the other thing that they desperately need more than anything else is shells,

ammunition, if Israel is involved in a long war in Gaza and has to protect itself in the north against Hezbollah, it's going to need artillery, it's going to need shells. Israel does build a lot of shells itself, but it's quite likely it's going to have to ask the United States for more, many, many more, and that means that there will be even less for Ukraine. And of course, the US is any way producing a lot less than Ukraine uses, let alone needs.

Yeah, this is bad for Ukraine. It's bad for Ukraine in a big way. I think for Russia, it doesn't affect Russia one way or another. That's my own thoughts. That's exactly my view. Okay. Any other comments? Or should we wrap this up?

I think we can wrap it up there. I mean, I don't personally expect any kind of diplomatic initiative, either from the West or from Ukraine. I'm afraid this is now one of those cases where, you know, it's like seeing a runaway train, hurtling towards the cliff. That's what the Ukraine crisis has become. I don't see any sign that the administration is prepared to rethink its positions. I think if there's a conflict in the Middle East, all that will happen is that they just think about that and stop thinking about Ukraine so much. I also happen to think, by the way, that in Congress, what's happened in the Middle East in Israel is going to give added strength to the opponents of aid for Ukraine.

So if Biden comes along and demands $100 billion or $50 billion or whatever, you're going to see more people in Congress saying, hold on, we've given them all this. We need to care about that country, which is our old ally. I think they're going to resist providing more aid to Ukraine. I think that's made this $100 billion request even more difficult, frankly. I don't think it was a realistic one. But whatever, I think that before very long, Ukraine will be

yesterday's story The Middle East will be today's And of course Zelensky and all of these people Perhaps all to start thinking about packing their bags

And holiday Living out the rest of their lives In Italy and Florida I agree with you 100% Congress is going to Very

logically they're going to say whatever money we have in weapons has to go to Israel. They're going to say I don't want to hear about Ukraine. And so, you know, just to wrap it up, the solution for the Biden White House for the United States, the off-ramp for Project Ukraine might actually be a media

solution in that the media is just not going to talk about it anymore. Exactly. I mean, they've already been saying less and less and what they've been saying is being getting bleaker and bleaker. So why don't just switch off the whole subject and focus on the Middle East? And everyone is already hyper-focused now on the Middle East. So it's a very easy pivot, a very easy pivot, to be quite honest.

Okay, the Duren, but not good, not good for Europe. Europe is going to pay a very heavy. Absolutely. Well, they will be horrified by this. But there they are. They brought it on themselves. They sacrificed their own interests. And, well, we'll see the result.

Yeah, the duran. Dot locals.com. We are on Rumble, Odyssey, Bitch, Shoot, Telegram, Rockfin, and Twitter, now known as X, and go to the Duran shop, 20% off, use the code. The Duran 20. Just a final thought before we go, Alexander. Real quick thought that I had this morning. It's interesting that throughout the year and a half, we were talking about, everyone was talking about a second front that would be damaging to Russia. right but it seems like we actually got a second front in this multipolar conflict if you want to call what's going on in israel part of the multipolar conflict i don't think we're there yet but it has the potential of of getting there at the end of the day it was it was a conflict in israel that

ended up being damaging to to ukraine in the collective west i completely i i completely agree and by the way um let me say first of all and quickly in parentheses there's going to be inevitable at some point, people who will say that Putin was behind it. That, you know, he orchestrated or organized this in some way. This is, as night follows day, it's going to be said by someone at some point. Don't be surprised if it becomes a meme. I mean, you know, Putin, after all, is responsible for everything. The second thing to say is that that would be complete nonsense.

There is no sign that, I mean, the Russians have no power to influence these events. I think that they do not want a war in the Middle East. They've been working overtime to try and prevent a war in the Middle East. So the Russians have no desire, no intent, no need to create such a war. But you are absolutely correct. It's happened and it's happened to their advantage. And it is connected to events in Ukraine in some way. because I said in my program yesterday

that one of the underlying causes to this event in Israel is the fact that there is a general perception in the Middle East that the United States is a declining power. It is getting weaker. Hamas will have cented it and that will undoubtedly have played a role, I'm sure, in their decision. And there's probably other actors

who have probably sent it as well. And in the Middle East, if people start to feel that you're getting weak, well, things start to happen, not to your advantage. Well said, all right, take care.