The Duran Podcast - ZELENSKY seeks BIDEN endorsement, stave off RIVAL factions

Episode Date: September 25, 2024

ZELENSKY seeks BIDEN endorsement, stave off RIVAL factions

All right, Alexander, we are going to discuss Zelensky's tour of the United States. In your video update from the other day, you mentioned that Zelensky in the U.S., pushing his victory plan is really Zelensky in the U.S. pushing his survival plan because for Zelensky to stay in power, he needs to keep the war going. This is just the reality of the situation. And so he is in the United States and he is pushing for money. He is pushing for weapons, long-range missile strikes into pre-2014 Russian territory. And most importantly, and perhaps the most dangerous part of his victory plan, at least from the reports that we're getting from media like Bloomberg, this is what they're saying. The key component to his victory plan is Ukraine entry.

to NATO and we're not talking Ukraine entry into NATO in five years or ten years or something like that. We're talking in the next month or two or three. Zelensky wants Ukraine in NATO and he wants Article 5 protection and the whole nine yards. So what are your thoughts about Zelensky's victory plan tour of the United States, which you defined so well as his survival plan? Right, I think the first thing to say is that it's not a victory plan. In fact, Zelensky himself is now admitting that the situation is becoming critical for Ukraine. He's making admissions like this that he's never made before. He says that Ukraine can't go on fighting in the way that it is, that it's almost exhausted,

its resources are almost tapped out. I mean, it's in a critical situation. So he acknowledges that. But he still talks about a victory plan. And the victory plan is exactly what you said. And the key part of it is entry into NATO as soon as possible. I mean, he's basically hinting by the end of the year. And he's giving the impression that if Ukraine enters NATO by the end of the year,

that will somehow in itself be enough to bring the war to stop. And he says that Ukraine needs to bring the war to stop this year. and he gives the impression that once the war is brought to a stop in that way, then negotiations can begin in which the Russians will capitulate. Ukraine will get its 2014 territory back, and that will be the victory. Now, I don't think anybody, anybody now, apart from the few people in the media,

still believe that any of that can happen. There would be enormous opposition in Europe, in the United States, to admitting Ukraine into NATO in that kind of way. The Pentagon is still very, very unhappy about the idea of missile strikes. They're still putting out stories that missile strikes are not going to change the military situation at all. Well, they're not. They're not. Exactly. One truth coming out of the Pentagon at least is they're not.

Exactly. Exactly. So what Zelensky is doing, and it's been effectively admitted in places like the FT, the financial times, but it isn't just there. What you can see that he's trying to do is he's going to America, he's talking to all of these political leaders. There's Biden, to Kamala, to Trump as well, to all the usual people. He's going to Scranton and looking at where they produce 155mm shells and all the... signing missiles. Signing missiles and doing all that kind of thing. And he wants them all to continue to say that they back Ukraine

and that they back him as the leader of Ukraine. He wants, in other words, a public reassertion from the Americans that they continue to see him as the person who can lead Ukraine at this time. So that means that he can then see off his opponent. in Kiev, who are now mobilising. We've seen Zollusinie starting to resurface, we're in words now coming from people like

Poroshenko again. So that sort of silences the critics because they know that if Zelensky has the backing of the Americans, they can't really move against Zelensky because in Ukraine the Americans hold all the high cards.

They're the dominant force in Ukrainian politics. So that means that Zelensky himself remains in place as president. He's able to keep the war going because he is now committed, in effect, to keeping the war going as long as possible. Because if the war finishes, there's supposed to be elections. If he has to concede to territory, he has problems with the nation's militias, people whose families have suffered as a result of the war would say why on earth did we accept all of this suffering where we've ended up in a worse position than we would have been in if the war had been ended sooner as it might have been

we've been through all of that Istanbul and all that so he wants to keep the war going he wants to continue to make his maximalist demands and he wants the americans there visibly supporting him and i think he's going to get that So he's not going to get his victory plan, because the victory plan is fantasy. But it will be enough, I think, to keep him in power in Kiev for the next few months. And if and when the collapse comes, and I think more and more people are coming round to the view that a collapse in Ukraine is likely and perhaps even inevitable. Well, then Zelensky is still president of Ukraine. He's made no concessions.

He can move to the West if that's what the situation needs. He can still lead what he will call Ukraine's government. The West will continue to recognize it. And the money will continue to flow. Government and exile money. Exactly. That's going to be good. So I think this is the plan.

I think this is the actual plan. Yeah, government and exile funding. Yeah. It makes sense, actually, what he's doing now that I think about it. He's not going to get the NATO if you had to put chances on NATO. Because, you know, the thing that worries me is Biden Blinken. Maybe there's that 1% chance that Biden or Blinken does promise some sort of NATO entry. Do you think that's possible at all?

Well, if he's possible. I think if it was Blinken, he must. might even agree to it. If it was Biden, I think he might agree to it. The Pentagon is strongly opposed. I think Jake Sullivan understands that this is not a good idea from a military, geopolitical, whatever point of view. I think they all understand that it would not play well at all in the American election. And I think this is something that Sullivan still cares about, even though he's not going to be reappointed, whoever wins the election, but I still think he obviously wants the Democrats to win. And of course there's the other reality, which is that the European

members of NATO don't want it either. The Germans, the French, very, very difficult to see the French Parliament approving NATO entry for Ukraine at this particular time. And I think probably, almost certainly, Biden and Blinken had been briefed about. about all of this. So I think that whatever their visceral feelings, I think they understand that this simply can't fly. And for that reason, they probably won't do it. Yeah, so they'll give him money.

You'll give him reassurances. We support you, you're our guy. Here's 300 million or 400 million, whatever they're going to give him. And they're gonna send him on his way. So Lenzky goes back to Kiev. Maybe he makes some stops at some other cities because he's gonna try to avoid

Kiev, but eventually he makes his way back there, and he makes his way back there with the endorsement of the United States. And so, Poroshenko, Klitschko, is Illusioni. They stay put. Maybe he purges Budanov, who's an opponent, or at least for Yermak. Yeah. Budanov is an opponent of Yermak. So maybe he does another round of purges, because there are rumors that Budanov and Umerov,

the defense minister, may go. So maybe they do another round of purges. but Zelensky stays put for a couple of months. If there's a collapse, he becomes the government in exile with all the perks of being a government in exile. And this actually lines up with Sullivan's goal, which is to get Ukraine over the November election, help, get them over that and get them surviving at least until, say, you're not going to, say, you're not, inauguration, January, February. So Sullivan gets that goal out of the way. It doesn't collapse on my watch. Lincoln can say the same. Biden can say the same. My legacy is not tarnished by a Ukraine collapse.

And this may line up with the Europeans because you're getting Lammy, the foreign secretary. He's coming out and saying that the conflict is going to last another year or two. Pavel, the president of Czech Republic. He said that most likely the conflict is going to be a stalemate or something. some sort of a freeze and we're going to have to accept that the Russians hold Ukraine territory temporarily. That's what Pavel said. So maybe the Europeans are saying let's drag Zelensky a little further, a little further as president and that way we can figure out what the eventual exit is going to be. I wonder if they imagine a collapse, the Europeans or you think they're probably not looking at a collapse. Anyway, what do you think? I don't think they believe in a collapse. I don't think

they believe in a collapse. They don't believe. I think they still believe that this thing can be prolonged for a year, more than that may be, that there's so much of a narrative built around this idea that there's a stalemate situation in Ukraine. I don't think in Europe they've internalized the possibility that there is going to be a collapse. Here there is a big difference with the US. I mean, you see people like David Ignatius, for example, writing in the Washington Post.

He's a fervid supporter of Ukraine, but he says Ukraine is bleeding out. I mean, the Americans, I think, are much more realistic about the real situation in Ukraine than the Europeans are. But I think fundamentally, you've hit it exactly right. The Europeans and the Americans, what Zelensky is trying to do, actually suits them. Because Zelensky remains, if he remains president, that holds everything together

until November and probably January. I think probably there won't be a collapse before January. In a hole until January. Yeah, I think so. Whereas if you start moving around the pieces in Kiev, at this time, if you start pushing Zelensky out and bringing Zaluzni or Poroshenko in,

you are creating instability there. And that could actually bring the collapse forward faster than might be the case if you just left Zelensky in place. So the Americans absolutely do not want to collapse this year. They do not want to collapse before November. I don't think most people think there will be a collapse before November. So they want things to remain stable in Kiev. They want things to remain as stable as they can be on the front lines. I mean, everybody knows, and sooner or later,

Pachrovsk and Jasavya and Taretsk are going to fall. Maybe they will fall before November. But we're not going to see a complete military collapse before November. They want everything to remain, in other words, in this very unstable, but nonetheless equilibrium situation at the moment, so that Ukraine doesn't become a big political issue. And that is achieved by leaving Zelensky where he is. The Russians are focusing on the war.

I'm listening to everything you're saying. And my conclusion is that the Russians are focusing on the war. They're looking at all this intrigue. But for them, at the end of the day, this is intrigue. It's not going to affect their timetable. At least I assume they're not working on this intrigue timetable. They don't care, November, elections, January inauguration. I think for the Russian government, it's whatever.

They're saying whatever. Our goal is demilitarization and to win the conflict. While the West is completely absorbed in all of this scheming and plotting and how do we keep Zelensky in until November, and maybe Zelensky should go, and maybe his illusion. he should take his place maybe we should let them into nato if you're sullivan i want to ask if you're blinking you're saying i want to escalate if you're sullivan you're saying we're not going to escalate but we got to keep selensky in place a little bit longer because we don't want

them to collapse while we're in the positions that we're in so it's just two different ways that they're going about this conflict i mean the russians are focused on the conflict and the west is at the point where they're just trying to figure out how do we keep this this thing going. You're absolutely right. The Russians at the moment, where Ukraine is concerned, for them now it has become a purely military issue. At some point, they're going to have to start thinking about this politically.

But for the moment, their focus is on the war, on winning the war, in fighting. And to the extent that they discussed Ukraine, in terms of, to the extent that Putin has to think about Ukraine, he's thinking about military decisions. The Russians obviously have a lot of other things to think about too. They've got the BRIC summit coming up in Kazan. They've got their own economic and social issues to look at.

But in terms of Ukraine, it is fighting that is their focus. The Americans, the British, the Ukrainians themselves, the political leadership there, are focused on all of the intrigues, the plots, the decisions about how to hold things together in Kiev. Those of us with long memories or an interest in history will find that it was exactly the same in the 1960s during the war in Vietnam.

The North Vietnamese overwhelmingly focused on the fighting looking at pushing forward. Having, to the extent that they had to discuss or think about diplomacy, it was about keeping their allies and the Soviets and the Chinese on side, and having to sometimes weave and maneuver around that and talk about negotiations, which they didn't really believe in, but focus principally on the fighting itself. The Americans, by contrast, constantly trying,

trying to find some kind of formula to try to keep the situation in Saigon itself stable because that was most important for domestic American politics. And it is exactly the same with Ukraine, Russia and Kiev today. Do you think something's going to change with Putin, his administration, how they're going about the war after Bricks, Kazan on the 20, is it the 23rd or 24th? 23rd, 24th of October. Do you think something's going to change in the way they're dealing with Ukraine after the Brick Summit? Because the Brick Summit is a huge deal for Russia and for Putin.

Yes. And perhaps after the summit, he'll be able to maybe think about post-conflict Ukraine. Maybe I don't know. What are your thought about? That is exactly right. At the moment the Russians don't want to talk about post-conflict Ukraine and any plans they have there. Because inevitably, that involves elements of reshue. change and they know perfectly well that some of their allies, India and Brazil, are very,

very nervous about going down that route. So they want the Indians and the Brazilians signing to all of the agreements in Kazan, about, you know, setting up monetary systems and trade systems and all of those things. And then once all that is done and that basically is locked in, then the Russians can start thinking about long-term political plans about Ukraine. They really don't want to talk about that now. Yeah, makes sense. Real quick, the situation on the front lines real quick,

because you get into the detail of it in your videos, but for everyone watching videos on your channel, for everyone watching this video, the situation, just give us a brief overview of the situation in, let's say, three places, Uglidar, which is so important, important. A year ago, Ugladar, or a year and a half ago, Ugladar was the place that everyone was talking about. Now it seems like they don't want to talk about it. Very important what's going on in Ugladar, Bakrowsk, and Kursk. So just give us a brief overview what's going on there.

Basically, all across every part of the front lines, in every area of the line of contact, the Russians are advancing and the Ukrainians are cracking. In Ugladar, there's talk that the town might be abandoned by the Ukrainians within the next couple of days because the Russians effectively have cut all the supply roads and the garrison there looks like it's surrounded. So in fact, the Ukrainians, in my opinion, have delayed too long. They should have withdrawn their troops from Ugladar. Weeks ago, they're going to suffer heavy losses withdrawing from it. But everybody thinks that that is what they're going to have to do. stay in there because Zelensky told Siersky not while I'm in the U.S.?

Exactly. Sorry. That is exactly correct. In fact, there were reports that Zelensky, in fact, gave specific direct orders to Siersky, no withdrawals anywhere. Last time in the U.S. And that has been a disaster for the Ukrainian army, by the way. They've suffered horrible losses as a result.

But Kovsk is the same story. The Russians are clearing up. They're capturing village after employees. important village. Some of these places are important because they're part of the chessboard that you have to, you have to get the squares before you take out the big piece, which is Pachrosk. They're now shelling Pachrosk itself. They've cut off Pachrosk from Resecweb, through shelling and bombing and all of that. And it's the same playing out in Toretsk and in Cusk and in Cusk, unequivocally now, everybody accepts that in Cusk It's the Russians who have the initiative,

who are advancing, and the Ukrainians, who are at very, very real risk now of being completely encircled and cut off in Cusk, cut off and resupply in Cusk. So we are seeing a whole series of disasters play out in individual battles right across the front line.

What makes discussing the war much more challenging now than it used to be was that in 2020, In 2022, 2023, you could talk about one battle at a time. Ahmed, the southern offensive, what are you, Avdeka. Now, we're having multiple battles happening right across the front lines. And the key thing is the Russians are winning every one of them.

Just a final observation for Zelensky right now in the US, I would say the most important battle is Kursk, even though it's not the most important battle from a military point of view for a PR optics point of view because they've invested so much in the Kersk invasion and the successful Kersk incursion that has knocked Russia off balance

from an info war perspective that's the most important part of the conflict for Zelensky while he's in the U.S. right now and isn't it interesting how the collective West media when reporting on Kursk

at least is my observation the big media channels they don't really get into the details of what's happening in Kursk They just say the Kersk incursion, which was an invasion of Russia and a successful tactical victory operation. They don't get into any of the details. They don't get into the weeds of what's going on in Kursk. They just leave it there, which means that they don't want to get into the details of Kursk,

at least not over the next two weeks, let's say, while everything is happening in the United States and in New York. That is exactly right. In operational terms, Kusk is the least important part of the battle problem. Because they're fighting over inconsequential places. Pakrosk, Ugladar, Torez, Chasvk, these are places that matter. If Ukraine loses them, it risks losing the whole war. What goes on in Kusk is far less important than that. But in presentational terms, which are the ones that Zelensky can,

about, it's the most important place, because that's where he's fighting on Russian territory. The story has been built up. There's this tremendous Ukrainian tactical success. And, of course, the media in the United States, in Europe, doesn't exactly, as you said, really want to get into the weeds and talk about what is really going on there. Because they don't want to admit that this whole thing, far from being a great tactical success, his time. turning into a disaster. Well, it makes a great headline for the Western media, doesn't it? Exactly.

Ukraine has invaded Russia. Correct. And now they're holding a part of Russian territory, and they're going to use it as leverage over Russia and future negotiations. And it proves that Putin is weak, and it proves that Russia is weak, because they can be invaded by Ukraine. That is the narrative. That's exactly right.

Sounds good. That gives the impression that things are much more evenly balanced in the war than, in fact, they are. They're not. Exactly. They're not. Okay. All right. We will end it there. The duran.

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