The Duran Podcast - Zelensky shuffles cabinet. IMF squeezes Ukraine

Episode Date: September 8, 2024

Zelensky shuffles cabinet. IMF squeezes Ukraine The Duran: Episode 2006

All right, Alexander, let's do an update on what is going on in Ukraine. We have a big shakeup in the Zelensky government. The big name that is out is Foreign Minister Puleba. And things are not looking good in Kursk. They continue to look really bad for the Ukraine military. They appear to be trapped as the Russians start either hunting down, whatever Ukrainian resources are in Kursk or push whatever Ukraine forces are in Kersk, push them back, push them back to where?

I'm not quite sure because at the same time that they're trapped in Kersk or they're being pushed back towards the border of Russia and Ukraine. Russia is hitting at Tsumi, which is the main area where these forces in Kursk are being supplied. That's the logistics are coming from Sumi. So Russia continues to hit Sumi. They've hit L'Evolve, the big strike at Boltova, which, depending on where you go, could be either 50 casualties or 780 casualties. It depends on what source you look at.

And the information there is quite interesting with regards to the foreign assets that may have been in Pulteva. Once again, it depends on what source you go to. And of course, you have the situation. Akrovsk, which is getting worse by the day and everywhere else on the front line. So a deteriorating situation for Ukraine and for the Ukraine military. And maybe at the end of this video, we can talk a bit about the Ukrainian economy and the IMF and their demands. So that's going to play a part in the unraveling of the Zelensky regime, a big part.

I believe it's going to play a big part, being from Greece. in Cyprus and understanding what the IMF does to a country to its citizens, it's not going to go well for Zelensky. Anyway, what are your thoughts? Well, absolutely. Now, let's actually start with the reshuffle. Now, this is a curious story. Now, let's start with the foreign minister, Dmitro Kulabor. There's been some attempts over the last day or so to try to speak, to talk him up and say that, you know, he was actually quite a good foreign minister. I think he was a terrible foreign minister. I think that he upset the polls recently. He, by, you know, bringing up a completely ridiculous issue about what the polls supposedly did in Ukraine to try and justify the terrible

things that Ukrainian nationalists did during the Second World War in Poland. Anyway, he upset the polls. He's infuriated the Chinese on several occasions. Apparently, there are several Western governments which apparently don't like him very much. I think that his whole management of the recent peace conference in Switzerland, as we saw, was a disaster. So it was necessary, I think, for him to go. And it's unsurprising that he did go. But he's gone as part of this bigger reshuffle. and the reshuffle makes no coherent sense because all sorts of people are being sacked and replaced, but they're none of the big decision makers that you would really need to sack and replace if you were really seeking to change direction. So what is this about?

Now, as we know, a couple of, a week ago, Yermak, who was Zelensky's chief of staff, went to Washington and had a meeting there with Jake Sullivan. And I'm starting to think that what happened is that Sullivan, who you remember we discussed it in another video, had with him the national security advisors of Britain, France and Germany. I think that he insisted that Kulabar must go. He insisted that there should be a major restructuring of the Ukrainian government. Apparently, there are reports that he also demanded that Ukraine start mobilizing people from age 21. In other words, lower the threshold of the mobilization even further. And of course, all of this is connected to the pre-year-old. pressure from the IMF that we're going to come to shortly. So a government that is under intense

pressure, which is what Zelensky's government now is. They got rid of Kulaba, who had to go because he's incompetent, I mean, not just incompetent, but disastrously so. And then in order to appease the West, they carried out this reshuffle which changes nothing. ultimately. It doesn't resolve any problem. It doesn't put in new people with genuine new ideas in place. In fact, all it does is bringing people who are even closer to Zelenskyy and the system than the ones who existed before. So it just, in effect, brings more people who are even more of the same than the ones who have been thrown out. And I think that's been done so that Zelensky and his people can come to Washington, to Jake Sullivan and to the IMF there, and say, look, you wanted to reshuffle.

You wanted the corruption reduced. And we've just done one. I think this is what this is all about. I think it's a further sign of a political, economic crisis. in Ukraine and a loss of confidence increasingly by the West in the decisions of the government in Ukraine. But we see that the demands that are coming from the West are demands that Zelensky and his people cannot fulfill because a real fundamental change would require the dismantling of the entire system. And that, of course, they can't do.

So I think that's what the reshuffle is. So I mean, this goes back to the video we did a couple of days ago where we talked about how Jake Sullivan and a lot of the team, the Biden White House team that is running foreign policy, their goal is to get Ukraine past November 24. And beyond that, maybe January, February, maybe they've said, okay, we need to get Ukraine to pass the inauguration. late January, early February, at least let's get them there. Let's get them past that point so they don't collapse. And then we're home free as Lincoln, Sullivan, Austin. These guys are ready to move on. I mean, these moves seem like they've been constructed for that very purpose. Not that they can do anything to win. I think it's important to say, say, there's nothing that Sullivan can do at this point in time outside of sending American troops to Ukraine. A lot of American

troops to Ukraine that's going to change the dynamics of this of this conflict so everything's kind of and even going to the UK and real quick even going to the recent announcement of UK the light missile systems that they're sending to Ukraine air defense systems which have like a six kilometer range even that looks like a move that's just meant to just keep Ukraine going at least for a couple of more months anyway your thoughts that's exactly the same I mean these air defense missiles the British are providing have no relevance to the situation in Ukraine anymore. They can't shoot down. They can't shoot down the Russian aircraft, which are operating far outside the range of these missiles. And if we're talking about drones, Russia produces 4,000 drones a day. What a 650 missiles going to do?

I mean, it's, it is an absurd idea. by the way, with the J-Sams, which people are talking about, an awful lot. And the United States is a stockpile, I believe, of around 2,000 J-Sams missiles. They are an essential, indispensable part of the strike force, of the US Air Force. So the United States is not going to be able to give Ukraine many of these things, perhaps 50, perhaps 100, set that against the fact that Russia launches missile strikes with 130 missiles against Ukraine on any one day and has launched 10,000 cruise missiles against Ukraine over the course of this entire conflict. All of these things are putting plaster on a gigantic wound, which is getting bigger all the time.

And we'll come to the economics later, but you're absolutely, it's the same there. And the politics is the same. You rearrange the faces. You bring in a few new people. You hope that this will somehow make things work a little better in Ukraine, that they have been working at the moment. We have huge corruption in Ukraine. Everybody can see the fortifications haven't been built.

Apparently the governor. I couldn't believe this when I first heard the story. I thought I must be misunderstanding things. but that the mayor of Pakrovsk, which will come to shortly, instead of getting people to build fortifications around Pakrovsk, was having them plant flowers. Now, that almost certainly was some kind of racket. It's not that, you know, he has a love of flowers

or that this is some sort of aesthetic thing. This is an embezzlement of some kind. So, be... U.S. Sullivan and company. So bring you people in. Maybe they can sort something out. Maybe they can hold things together for a few more months or a few more weeks because things are getting so bad.

We'll give them a few more missiles here. We'll give them a little air defense missiles. We can't give them Patriots because we can't produce them in the numbers they need and they're losing patriots all the time. We can't give them long-range missiles because we don't have that many. So we give them a few. We keep the hope. We keep them going just a little longer.

Get them past the election. And if we get them past the election, as you rightly say, all of these people can say to themselves, look, we're gone, we're out, whether or not, whoever wins the election, we can go and take our jobs in the NGOs of the think tanks and all of those places. And we can pass the problem to whoever takes over from us. That's, I think, the thinking now. That's all there is to this. And I think that's what Jake Sullivan's priority was when he met Yamak last week.

Whether the Ukrainians themselves have figured it out, I don't know. But perhaps some of them have, which is if they have done, by the way, it's going to make the corruption even worse because people in Kiev and the Ukraine will be saying, look, everything's going down. So let's take out as much money as we can, as quickly as we can, before the ship sinks, and then we can bail out. Yeah. Kuleb is lucky.

Yeah. He got out. Yeah. He got out, yeah. So he's going to take whatever he needs to take. He'll be ambassador to the UK. Yeah. Well, apparently he is.

He's been parachuted. Is he really? some sort, apparently into some sort of agency or organization, which gets him out of Ukraine, which is what this is all about at the end of the day. There you go. Yeah. So, I mean, he got out. I imagine there are quite a few officials in and around Zelensky who are also preparing

their exit. And the one person that I think may not know what's about to hit him. And then we'll get to the economic side of things, but this ties into Bakros and what's going on on the front lines. The one person that I believe has not figured out what's about to come his way is Commander Siersky. Yeah. Who is he's going to get blamed for a boatload, isn't he? Well, absolutely, because of course he's not really, this is his problem.

He's committed himself to Ukraine, but of course he's committed himself to a Ukraine whose leadership doesn't like him and doesn't trust him because, of course, he's Russian. and they don't really feel deep down that he's one of them. So he's the perfect, he's the perfect scapegoat, the perfect patsy when it all goes wrong. As you rightly say, I don't think he understands that. He has some technical skills. Well, wasn't overstate how competent he is as an officer, but he has some technical skills. He knows a bit about how to do his job. But I think he's completely out of his depths in understanding the really complicated politics that are going on in Kiev.

Zalusini there, by the way, his predecessor, I think had a much better understanding of the internal politics of Ukraine than Sirsky did. So let's talk about the military situation and what Siersky is trying to do because, of course, a narrative is now being spun. And it's all part of the same narrative, the one that, you know, wants to hold things together until November. that things have stabilized on the front lines. And they haven't stabilized on the front lines. This is a complete misunderstanding of what's happening. In fact, we've faced this issue many times over the course of this war. The Russians, after the fall of Avdaevka,

advanced very far, very fast in the western direction. They've now reached Pakarovsk. they have to now prepare for the storming of Pakrovsk, which is a substantial place. It's had just before the war a population of 52,000 people. Apparently, at one point in the 1980s, its population was as high as 155,000 people. So that tells you, we're not talking about an unsubstantial place. There are various important towns that they have to sort out before they really deal with Bakrowski, places like Ukrainsk, Selidovo, Wugledar further south, that they are busy sorting out. They have to deal with the various Ukrainian forces that are milling around.

And I think it's almost the right word in southern Dombas. The Ukrainian forces are significant numbers of them, but they're very fragmented. and they're all over the place. So inevitably, they have to, the Russians have to take time to do that. They also have to sort out their own logistics by gaining control of the main supply roads, which they have largely done, by the way, getting their logistics organized. And then probably in the second half of this month, I'm guessing, the major offensive, the assault on Pachovsk itself will begin.

Now, you know, I don't want to anticipate too far because, as we've discussed many times, neither of us is a military background. It's not something we are familiar with. The general staff in Moscow doesn't share its plans with us, but there has been no stabilization or real slackening of the tempo. to talk in that way is to misunderstand the whole process and the way this war has been conducted. And in fact, the way all wars are conducted, you know, the really big, important wars, if you read them and learn about them,

you often find this very rapid advances that people reach the end of their supply lines. They have to stop, reorganise, refit their forces, mop up the people that they've captured, And then only then, after a few, a short couple of weeks, can the advanced resume. And that's what we see. And elsewhere, of course, the Russians continue to advance. They've been making significant progress in the other big town that they're currently storming,

which is Toretsk. It gets less attention than Pachrosk. The Toretsk is an important place, and it brings the Russians much closer to capturing central and northern Donbass there was less information for some time about what was going on in Chasse Fia which is another important town

that the Russians have been storming and many people thought that the Russians had put this battle there on pause but they haven't and we're now getting information that they are close to capturing central Chasafiard and in the meantime

Sirski has been landed with this operation in Kusk, which apparently he wasn't too keen on to start with. He's given an interview. I think it was with CNN, in which he's tried again to rationalise. And I think rationalise is the right word. Rationalise it, trying to explain what it was all about. The explanations he gives for it make no sense to me, or I think to most people. The best he can come up with is that it was intended to divert forces, Russian forces from other fronts. But of course, the Russians haven't diverted forces from other fronts. And when they have a numerical advantage, why would they need to? And you're absolutely right. Kusk has proved to be a cemetery for Ukrainian armor. The Russians

have been destroying it. It's been a cemetery for Ukrainian haemar systems where I think the Russian have now destroyed eight. It's been a cemetery for Ukrainian air defense systems. The Ukrainians are taking very heavy losses there. They're not achieving anything. And in the meantime, Syriky has to shuffle forces back and forth from one key place on the front lines where things are about to collapse to another. And he's doing that, And he's doing that to the best extent that he can. But it's like, you know, the story of the little boy trying to prevent the dam collapsing by sticking his fingers in the holes. Eventually, he'll just run out of fingers.

And the same will happen with Sirsky. And when it all goes wrong, exactly as he said, they'll all blame him. Yeah, absolutely. That's what's going to happen to Siersky. That's probably why they had this in an interview with him, I imagine. They're preparing his removal. So, yeah, Siersky's in trouble, I think. Air defense systems, yeah.

The air defense systems in Kursk, that's why the Russians were able to hit what they hit over the past week as well. No air defense anymore, really. Well, they've just carried out last, not last, a couple of days ago, a major missile strike on Lvov, which we'd all assumed was particularly well defended. And there was no air defense to speak of at all. I mean, the Ukrainians launched some missiles. You heard some heavy caliber machine guns rattling away in the skies. But you could see Russian subsonic cruise missiles.

And these are the ones that are the easiest for the Ukrainians to shoot down. And they go crashing in and destroying the targets that they've been assigned. Well, it's clear that Ukrainian air defense barely exists anymore. All right. How about the economy and the IMF? Let's talk about that. Well, that's possibly going to be the coup de grace, because the IMF is now demanding budget cuts, spending cuts, tax increases,

and they're also demanding a devaluation of the Guinea, the Ukrainian currency, which, of course, is what the Ukrainians have been struggling, to keep steady because if the currency starts to fall, it's already experienced a 10% fall over the last few months. But if it starts falling in a situation where Ukraine is, its production, the productive side of its economy is starting to collapse. Well, if the grievance starts falling, there will be a stampede. The risk is that there will be a stampede out of it.

because people will feel in this kind of atmosphere that the currency is going to lose value. And of course that will complicate the government's own problems because if the currency loses value at the kind of speed that it might do, that the government is going to have problems with tax collection. Of course, it already does. It can only cover, I believe, about 40% of its budget through internal revenues. It depends on the West. It has to take out loans.

The West is increasingly demanding that it conduct its financing through loans rather than outright grants from the West. How does Ukraine repay its loans? Already it's impossible to imagine how that can happen. But how does it repay its loans if its currency is losing value? So you can see that this is, this pressure from the IMF risks of further implosion. And the IMF nonetheless has to try and reconcile its own rules with its absolutely illogical decision to continue to support Ukraine. By the way, I ought to say, neither the IMF nor the World Bank, should have continued to fund Ukraine after the 2014 crisis,

and especially not after Ukraine began to default on various loans in 2015. Not 2014, 2015. I mean, as long ago as that, the IMF, if they'd followed their rules, should have pulled out of Ukraine. But they didn't. They went on first, they went on, support. Ukraine and they've continued to support Ukraine. They've poured money into Ukraine. The situation there has steadily deteriorated. It's got far worse during the war. Of course, the IMF and the World Bank by doing that have been exposed as complete tools of Western policy than whatever fiction, that, that they're, you know, impartial and objective mechanisms.

I don't think anybody believed that anyway, but whatever fiction there was about that, nobody takes seriously any longer. So they've been doing that. So they now find themselves in a situation where they're going to lose huge amounts of money, which they've invested contrary to their own rules. So they have to come up with some kind of plan,

as they say, to turn things around. And they're making these demands of Ukraine, which Ukraine cannot possibly fulfill. And if it does fulfill, it would be economic and social suicide for Ukraine on top of all of the other problems. Ukraine is in default. The IMF should not be lending it money. It's as simple as that.

It's bankrupt. You don't lend money to a bankrupt. It's a fundamental rule which the IMF has ignored for 10 years, but we've now reached that point when it's become impossible to ignore. So they've come up with this plan. Ukraine will have to accept it. We'll have to pretend to do some of these things. That's going to make the situation in Ukraine economically much worse.

It's becoming again a real possibility that at some point next year we could start to see currency collapse. and hyperinflation kick in. Currency collapse, hyperinflation, social unrest, increasing taxes, increasing VAT. Citizens are not going to be happy about that. And of course, you devalue the Krivna and how does Ukraine pay back all these loans? Well, with a devalued currency, they sell off everything on the cheap, right? Is that how the game goes?

Yes. The IMF. Once what wonders what there is left to sell and who the buyer. now would be. That's the other that's the other unanswered question here. They'll find buyers. Oh, they always do. There's always someone. I agree. There's always someone. There's the Vulture funds and all of those people. They'll, they'll compiling it. I agree. And they'll find buyers. I'm going to, I'll ask you this question. They'll find buyers who will be willing to cooperate should, should Russia control some of these assets, correct? Yes. Oh, yes. Yes. Yes.

Absolutely. And no question. No question. All right. We will end the video there. The durand. Dotlocals.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, bitch, shoot, telegram, rock fan, and Twitter X and go to Durand shop, pick up some merch. Like these shirts we are wearing today. The link is in the description box down below. Take care.