The Duran Podcast - Zelensky wants elections, military is exhausted

Episode Date: January 12, 2025

Zelensky wants elections, military is exhaustedThe Duran: Episode 2115

All right, Alexander, let's do an update on what is happening in Ukraine, the conflict in Ukraine, what is happening on the front lines. What is going on in Kursk? And what is going on in Dombas? Is Kersk still a catastrophe for the Ukraine military? I believe the Russian military said they gave an update on casualties and I believe they said 50,000. Yeah.

In Kursk, it is a catastrophe for the Ukraine military. but it looks like Zelensky continues to double, triple, quadruple down in the cursed direction. Meanwhile, in Dombas, it looks like the Russian advances are accelerating. They're getting very close to Bakrowski, Chasofyar, the Deneper, the south of Dombas. What's going on in Ukraine on the front lines? I think more and more people are sensing that we are now entering, we are actually entering, in military terms, the endgame, that Ukraine's ability to sustain itself is almost exhausted and that it's increasingly unlikely that he can get through this year.

I think that's the first thing to say. Now, I say that there's been an astonishing editorial in the Washington Post that says exactly this. It doesn't want a negotiated settlement in Ukraine. It wants, you know, to keep Ukraine to keep fighting, which is extremely. I mean, it really is the way they phrased it. You know, the bad peace is worse than, well, presumably Ukraine's defeat. But they said straightforwardly in the article that Ukraine is losing men faster than it

can replace them, that Ukrainian society is exhausted, and they also said that the figure that the Ukrainians are citing for their casualties of 400,000 is greatly understated, which is the first time, by the way, I've seen that admission in such an important mainstream newspaper as the Washington Post in the United States. And bear in mind, this is an editorial. And as everybody knows, the Washington Post gets information from the intelligence community. So I think this is, I think this is the way I read that editorial is it's preparing us for the fact that Ukraine is now entering an end game. A death agony, if you prefer, because that is how it looks across the front line. Now, it is very interesting because the way the Russians conduct military offensives are completely different from the way the West conducts military offenses.

If you go back to summer 2023, when the West took over planning for Ukraine, the West's idea of a military offensive was that you focused on a particular position, which you believe is the weak position, you pile in all the men that you can't there, you attack on a narrow front and you try to break through. And this is very much based on American Western ideas of gaining control of territory. outmaneuvering the enemy, seizing control of cities, doing all of those kind of things. As we discussed right at the beginning of the war in a program that we did, the Russian state have a different model. They set out to destroy the enemy's army. So instead of focusing on an attack on a narrow front, they attack right across the front. They gradually, steadily increase the pressure.

until the enemy army just completely disintegrates. And we are now getting very, very close to that point. Let's start with Kusk, for reasons known best to himself, Zelensky and Sisk as well, decided to launch a counterattack there, despite the fact that we've had a report-off reported by have tired and exhausted and demoralized the Ukrainian soldiers in Kuska. There was a counterattack. It sought to capture a village called Bolshaya Soldatska. Nobody really can explain what it was that the Ukrainians thought they would achieve if they captured that village. The offensive failed completely.

It opened up gaps in the Ukrainian lines. The Russians have pushed through those gags. They've captured a whole set of other villages. The Russians appear to outnumber the Ukrainians. in Mancauer and they massively outnumber the Ukrainians in equipment in Kusk. They are now within a kilometer and a half of Soudja itself. This is the small town that the Ukrainians captured, which is their main trophy, if you like, from their Kursk offensive. It looks like the Kusk pocket is imploding and the losses have been catastrophic.

The Russians say 50,000 dead and wounded, maybe. What we can say is that the equipment losses have been prodigious. And Putin, of course, is claimed, and he claimed some time ago that they were greater than what Ukraine lost in the 2023 offensive. But that's because everywhere else, things are going from bad to worse. Kurachovov, one of the most important fortified positions. had in southern Donbass, it's been lost, the Russians have captured it. The Russians are gradually, in fact not gradually, rapidly encircling Pachrovsk, the city we've been hearing

about so much, a bit further to the north. They've cut the main roads there. It doesn't look as if Pachrovsk can be defended for very long. The Russians appear to be. They might even have, by now, actually captured the other important fortified town of Toretsk. Chassevya, there is still fighting going on there, but nobody believes that it can hold for very much longer. And further north still, the Russians have crossed the Osco River. They're apparently increasing their foot up there, bridgeheads there. This is the area where Ukraine launched its counter-offensive back in 2022, in Kharkov region. It looks like like it's going to lose all those gains. But the most important thing, the two most important

things are these. Firstly, the Russian in the Prakosk-Korajvo area are now getting very close to the river in central Ukraine. I saw the first article, I don't know where, I can't remember where it was, that finally acknowledged the fact that central Ukraine, this area of central Ukraine, near the river, is Ukraine's heartland. If the Russians enter it, if they reach the east bank of the river here, let alone if they capture Zaporosia and NEPA, Neapro, the two big industrial cities, it is a terminal blow for Ukraine. I mean, the country, as we know it, ceases to be viable. And they are getting very close to that point now. And the other thing. So that is a major strategic problem for the Ukrainians. And their army is just dying. It's dying on the

battlefields. Even the Ukrainians are admitting this. And there is no simple way around this. they cannot keep reinforcing it. Many of the soldiers who they do conscript, desert almost immediately. And even if they were to keep all of those soldiers, apparently would still not make up for the losses. So the Russian strategy, as we said, is to destroy the enemy's army. And they're now very close to achieving that objective as well. The Washington Post clearly doubts that Ukraine can keep fighting for another year.

The BBC had an article a few, about a week ago, hinting at the same thing. We are, as I said, at the first moves of the end game. What do you make of Kellogg saying that he's going to need 100 days to get to some sort of a negotiation with Russia? and Ukraine, given the pace of Russia's advancement and the pace of Ukraine's collapse, would things be in a critical state for Ukraine and for the collective West 100 days from now? I mean, the picture today is already very bleak for the collective West for NATO and for Ukraine. In 100 days, it's going to be much worse. We could realistically see Russia having control of Torezky, Chasov, U.S.,

and I don't know, maybe a significant part of Pakrovsk? Is that possible? We could also maybe see Ukraine out of Kersk in 100 days? Absolutely. That's also possible. So what does this mean then for Kellogg's 100 days target? Well, first of all, the problem with Kellogg, the problem with the whole peace initiative that he has launched is that it has come far too late in the day.

If Kellogg had been launching a peace initiative of this guy, or if the United States had been launching a peace initiative of the kind that Kellogg is trying to get off the ground in 2022, 2023, there might have been some point to it. The trouble is the Biden administration turned its face against all kinds of diplomatic contact. It always said, you know, we'll give Ukraine, we'll be with Ukraine for as long as it takes. will give them unlimited support. We won't negotiate with the Russians without the Ukrainians, giving, as I said, a Zelensky a veto over the thing. So, Kellogg comes along. He says, I need 100 days.

He doesn't have 100 days. A year ago, he would have done. Two years ago, he would have had 100 days. He doesn't have it anymore, because, as you absolutely rightly say, well, Toretsk is likely to pass completely under Russian control. in the next few days, not a hundred days. I mean, it's probably the next couple of days. I don't think Chassevya is going to be far behind, actually. In Kuzk region, it's frankly difficult to see the Ukrainians holding out for very much longer. They might be able to hold on

for another 100 days. But, I mean, the amount of men and resources that they would burn up in order to do that would be horrific. And if the Russian break through to the river, then as I said, which they might do over the course of the next 100 days, well, Kellogg goes to Moscow, and he's at an impossible position. Now, this is where we come to. Why is he talking about 100 days? Could it be, could it be, that this is coming from Trump? Trump is telling us. telling Kellogg, look, I'm giving you 100 days to sort this out. If you can't, I'm walking away. Because that would make a lot more sense than seriously thinking that he can negotiate something in 100 days. Yeah, I agree. All right. Look, I mean, to be fair, you know, you're asking a lot

for someone to sort this out within 100 days as well. I mean, even if he had preparation beforehand, And we now know that his thinking of Ukraine, his preparation, given the reports he was putting out, was completely faulty and it was based on collective West sources and the Ukraine Ministry of Defense and their information, the UK Ministry of Defense, the collective West media. I mean, his idea, his conception of resolving the conflict in Ukraine, Kellogg and Fred Flights, was completely off base. I mean, had no basis in reality, most likely because they were buying into the collective West narrative and the collective West information, which we now know has been completely false and

misleading. Absolutely. I mean, we've discussed this many times. I mean, at the time they wrote their report back in April, we were in the Stelmake narrative, that the wolf was in Stelmec. And that was the narrative that was cobbled together after the failure of the 2023 offensive. And we said at the time it wasn't true. But of course, many, many people believed it.

Kellogg and Flights did, and they wrote that article on the basis of it. There was no stalemate then and nobody, I think, believes that there is a stalemate now. So he's working from an out-of-date decision. Exactly. Exactly. I was going to say the same exact thing. So basically, to be fair to Kellogg, I guess I'm trying to be fair to Kellogg. I'm saying he now has 100 days from working from a realistic with real information and facts

as to what's really going on to find a solution in Ukraine. And he has to basically scrap all of the lies and misinformation that he was buying into over the past six months. Yes. That's tough. Absolutely. I would actually say something else. I mean, what Kellogg needs to do in order to preserve his own reputation is he needs to talk to Trump and to the others. And there really needs to be a proper congressional or governmental

investigation into what went wrong in the United States about this. Because the intelligence failure has been of epic proportions. The things that had been said, which turned out to be untrue, had been extraordinary. Congress has been given the wrong information time and time and time again. Remember back in April when they signed off on the last appropriation. It was going to be enough to keep Ukraine going and, you know, they would be able to stabilize the front line on the basis of the military supplies that they were going to receive. And all the problems before had been because Congress hadn't provided any funding, and now that problem had been solved.

Well, as we saw, actually, what has happened is that since the appropriation was made, the Russian offensive has accelerated. So it's every stage the American people. And arguably Congress have been misinformed. So, I mean, this really does require a proper investigation and report or something about. Of course, whether that will happen is an entirely different matter. But Kellogg, in his own interests, for his own reputation, really needs to explain it. And really, perhaps all to lobby for it, because he was deceived, along with everyone else.

Well, that's why it was a grift. It was a grift. Yeah, exactly. Final question. Zelensky is saying that we could possibly, that Ukraine could possibly have elections by May. Possibly. That's an early date, but that's what he's saying.

And the reports are that he wants to run for re-election as president, and he can win. But he's got one problem. These are Ukraine media reports. his one problem is Zalusini. And the reports are from Ukraine media that Zelensky is floating to Zolluzni, a carrot and stick offer.

If you stand down and don't run against me as president of Ukraine, which would guarantee, this is the way Zelensky sees it, it would guarantee my victory. Then Zalusini, I will give you a seat on whatever ministry you want or will make you a speaker of the parliament

What do you want? I will give it to you. Just don't run against me. The stick part of his deal is that if Zillusionee does decide to run against Zelensky, then Zelensky is going to bring up an investigation and charges against Zillusionni for what happened in Hefson, the loss of Hearson to the Russian military. How does this tie into everything that we're talking about and what do you make of these reports? Do you think these are accurate reports?

Yeah, probably are accurate reports because what I think, Zelensky is now becoming increasingly worried about is the collapse of his own political position in Ukraine. I mean, as the war turns increasingly bad, he wants to secure his own position because currently there's big question marks over whether his position is constitutional at all. Putin is saying all the time that it's not and that he's not really in a position to continue as president of Ukraine. And Zelensky must be worried that the Americans, Trump, might eventually come to the same conclusion

if he decides that Zelensky is the problem. So Zelensky wants to hold some kind of election in which he is re-elected in some way so that he can cure this problem of his own, you know, arguable illegality. But the problem he has is that he's not particularly popular in Ukraine anymore. And so what he wants to do is he wants an election, but he wants to be sure before the election is held that he's going to win in. And the only way he can do that is by buying off his opponent, which is what he's trying to do with Zaluzi now. He's trying to buy off. He's trying to buy off.

or threatened Zillusini to make sure that Zollusely doesn't stand. I predict he will do the same with other people, Klitsko, potentially. Poroshenko, if Poroshenko really is interested in Stan. All of those people, he's going to try and buy them off or threaten them to prevent them standing, which will of course mean that it won't be a real, if it happens, it won't be a real election at all. It will just be another, you know, another performance intended. simply, as I said, to make Zelensky's position in Kiev look a bit more secure than it is.

I mean, nobody should take this very seriously. It's just Zelensky, as I said, trying to re-insure himself in the face of problems. The war is being lost. The Americans potentially could be turning hostile. This question marks over his legitimacy. So at least he wants to sort those out so that, as I said, he can. and keep challenges away. That I think is actually Zelensky's biggest priority now.

The most important priority that he has is to retain control in Kiev. It's more important to him than what happens on the battlefront. See? Yeah. Self-preservation. I just want to one quick thing. You mentioned about, you know, that it was a grift. The whole Ukraine thing was a grift. Just the person in the Pentagon who was apparently in charge of sending all the weapons

to Ukraine has just resigned. Yeah. Just say. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. All right. Yeah. And you know, Ukraine's democracy, this whole story about Zelensky and Zillusioni really does

resemble EU democracies. Absolutely. You take into account what they did in Romania and everything they do when they hold their elections. It's actually Ukraine's, the way Ukraine runs elections is pretty similar to the way the EU medals in member states' elections. Do you know, I have a suggestion for a new job for Zelensky after Ukraine goes down. He should be elected president of the European Commission. He should be Osula's successor.

He is an absolute, he's so expert in European methods that he was the ideal person to run the commission after after he's lost his job in Ukraine. It might happen too. It might even happen. It might happen. All right. We will end the video there. The durand.com.

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