The Ezra Klein Show - The Dark Heart of Trump's Foreign Policy
Episode Date: March 1, 2025If you’re looking for a single-sentence summation of the change in America’s foreign policy under Donald Trump, you could do worse than what Trump said on Wednesday:“The European Union was forme...d in order to screw the United States. That’s the purpose of it. And they’ve done a good job of it. But now I’m president.”Trump seems to loathe America’s traditional European allies even as he warms relations with Russia. He’s threatened tariffs on Canada and Mexico while softening his rhetoric on China. And he seems fixated on the idea of territorial expansion — whether it’s the Panama Canal, Greenland or even Gaza. There is a “Trump doctrine” emerging here. It’s one that could be glimpsed dimly in Trump’s first term but is exploding to the fore in his second. What will it mean for the world? What will it mean for the United States?Fareed Zakaria is the host of CNN’s “Fareed Zakaria GPS,” a columnist for The Washington Post and the author of the best-selling “Age of Revolutions.” He’s one of the clearest foreign policy thinkers around, and he doesn’t disappoint here. This episode contains strong language.Mentioned:“The Rise of Illiberal Democracy” by Fareed ZakariaBook Recommendations:The Jungle Grows Back by Robert KaganDiplomacy by Henry KissingerThe Wise Men by Walter Isaacson and Evan ThomasThoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Elias Isquith. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris, with Mary Marge Locker and Kate Sinclair. Mixing by Isaac Jones, with Aman Sahota. Our supervising editor is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Rollin Hu, Kristin Lin and Jack McCordick. Original music by Pat McCusker. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. Unlock full access to New York Times podcasts and explore everything from politics to pop culture. Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Transcript
Discussion (0)
So before we begin today, we are doing more than a podcast these days.
We have expanded into video and these episodes are being recorded.
And it's a different experience, a different experience for me in creating it and recording it and having the conversation.
And then genuinely, I think a different experience in watching it.
So you can find our YouTube page by searching Ezra Klein Show on YouTube, or we will have a link to it in the show description. What is the Donald Trump doctrine?
What is Donald Trump's foreign policy?
I think the place to begin to try to untangle what we've actually seen here is to listen
to the way Donald Trump and Vice President Vance speak about our allies.
I've had very good talks with Putin and I've had not such good talks with Ukraine.
They don't have any cards, but they play it tough.
The threat that I worry the most about vis-a-vis Europe is not Russia, it's not China, it's
not any other external actor.
And what I worry about is the threat from within.
The retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values, values shared with the
United States of America.
I mean, look, let's be honest. The European Union was formed in order to with the United States of America. I mean, look, let's be honest.
The European Union was formed in order to screw the United States.
That's the purpose of it.
And they've done a good job of it, but now I'm president.
Something is new here.
The Trump doctrine that we've seen in the first month of this presidency
is going to reshape the world much more fundamentally
than Trump did in the four years of his first term.
That's in part due to who is around him now. The end of being surrounded by the foreign policy establishment,
and now it's JD Vance and Elon Musk.
I wanted to have a bigger picture conversation about what this Trump doctrine is and the way it's going to reshape the world.
So I'm joined today by Fareed Zakaria, the host of GPS and CNN, a Washington Post columnist
and the author of the bestselling book Age of Revolutions.
As always, my email, Ezra Klein show at ny times.com.
Fareed Zakaria, welcome back to the show.
Always a pleasure, Ezra.
So to the extent you feel you can define it, what's the Trump doctrine?
You know, the part of the problem with Trump is he's so mercurial, he's so idiosyncratic
that just when you think you've figured out the Trump doctrine, he goes and says something
that kind of sounds like the opposite of the Trump doctrine.
But I do think that there's one coherent worldview that Trump seems to espouse and has espoused
for a long time.
The first ad he took out when he was a real estate developer, I think it was in 1985,
was an ad about how Japan was ripping us off economically
and Europe was ripping us off by free riding on security.
And what that represents, I think fundamentally is a kind of rejection of the open international
system that the United States and Europe has built over the last eight decades.
If you think about it for a minute, it really is a remarkable achievement.
You go back to international relations before 1945,
and it's just constant war, mercantilism, protectionism.
The two Yale scholars who tabulated
in the 100 years before World War II,
there's about 150 territorial conquests,
aggression, taking of territory,
legitimization of that.
Since 1945, there have been practically none. You have an open international economy. You have free trade, you have rules, you have travel and patents.
I mean, there's a huge area of kind of international cooperation that people don't think about, but that happens all the time, every day,
you know, when you fly, when goods go from one place to another.
What Trump, I think, has taken from that whole world is the US has been the sucker.
The US has been the country that's had to underwrite it.
The US is the country that's opened itself up to the world, and everyone takes advantage
of the US.
I don't know that he wants to tear it down,
but he wants to seriously renegotiate
or perhaps even redo that system.
Let me try to reflect what his people tell me,
picking up on something you said.
There is this, as people call it,
rules-based international order.
And the thing that Joe Biden says, and Jake Sullivan says,
and Friede Zuccaria says,
is that America benefits from that order,
and benefits from being part of that order.
And there's long been a critique from the left
that America, in fact, dominates that order
and doesn't play by its rules.
We break international law,
we do the things we wanna do do and then use those rules on others when we don't like what
they're doing.
But the critique from Trump is that that's not true.
That of every country, America as the strongest is harmed the most by these restraints, by
these rules, by these restraints, by these rules, by these laws,
because we have so much leverage we could be using.
We could stop tariffs on anybody for any reason
and get them to do what we want.
We have the strongest military of all the militaries.
Everybody wants to be on our side
and everybody fears being on our bad side.
And that what Trump is doing is systematically searching out the strength
America has, the ways we can wield our weight and leverage, and untying our hands from behind
our back.
Yeah.
There is a certain truth to that, that the United States does have enormous power.
And by the way, they're even right about the fact that the United States is more open to,
for example, the world's goods and services than they are to ours.
The United States has long practiced a kind of asymmetrical free trade.
So after World War II, we decided we would open up our markets to Europe and East Asia,
to Japan and South Korea.
And the reason we did that was we were trying to build
an international system where everyone benefited,
where there really wasn't that feeling of beggar
thy neighbor, zero sum game, where everyone went
into a competitive spiral, which then ends up
in nationalism and war.
We were trying to build something different and we thought, you know, we can be a little
generous here.
Let's let everyone grow and we'll do fine in the process.
And of course, the data is overwhelming.
Yes, Europe and Japan and South Korea and places like that grew, but the United States
absolutely dominated the world.
Because it's a classic positive sum game.
We created a much larger global economy, much larger trading system, huge capital flows,
and we were at the center of it.
The dollar was the reserve currency of the world, which alone gives us incredible advantages.
We're the only country that doesn't have to worry that much about debt and deficits,
because we know that at the end of the the day the dollar is the reserve currency. And my feeling
is if you take that system and say okay we're gonna look at each bilateral
relationship and see if we can squeeze this country for a slightly better deal
you probably will get a better deal. But two things will happen. The first thing is you will end up fracturing your alliances because the people with whom
you have the most leverage are your allies.
We have more leverage with Canada than we have with Russia because Canada depends on
us for security.
Canada trades with us a lot.
Its economy is intricately tied to the US economy.
So you can bully Canada.
You can't really bully Russia that much because we don't do much trade with them. You can't bully
China. It's another vast continental economy that can survive just fine. So the result of Trump
in action, the Trump doctrine in action, has been a war on America's allies. But the second more
important part is,
yeah, you'll gain a little bit here and there
by getting slightly better tariff deals.
And just so people understand,
tariffs in the industrialized world are around 3%.
They're very, very low.
So the idea, you know, we're not getting penalized in any large ways.
You can cherry pick a few examples to the contrary,
but mostly among the liberal democratic
states of the world, it's a free trade world.
But what you will do by squeezing each of these individual countries, humiliating them,
making them, forcing them to accept renegotiation of terms, you lose the kind of relationships
that you had built over eight decades that created this extraordinary anchor of stability in
the world, which was the Western Alliance.
And the gains are not that great.
Let's talk about the tariffs for a minute.
This is one of the places where the policy and practices just seemed incoherent to me.
There were different goals that have been articulated for tariffs.
One is you impose significant steady tariffs for a long period of time because you're trying
to make manufacturers make different decisions about where to locate factories, right?
You're trying to onshore supply chains.
To do that, you have to have these corporations expecting tariffs for quite a while, and
then you hope that they will respond to those tariffs by insourcing into America.
Another is that we're going to use the tariffs to raise a lot of revenue.
That too requires the imposition over a long period of time of significant tariffs.
Another is we're just going to bully small nations and just bully kind of anybody we
might feel like bullying, right?
The tariffs are an all purpose tool to get other countries to do anything we want them to do.
We sort of been using them that way,
but not for very significant concessions.
We're on the cusp of maybe they're about to reintroduce them
to Canada and Mexico,
so we'll see where we are in a couple of weeks,
but what are they doing, man?
So there are two things I think are going on.
One is, as I said, Trump, if he has a worldview, he's a protectionist.
He's always felt that you want to protect American industries, the foreigners come in
and they take advantage of us, et cetera, et cetera.
The second, I think, and this I think he discovered as president, the president has incredible power
in the area of tariffs.
Technically, it's meant to be Congress that imposes tariffs, but a long ago, Congress
delegated that power to the president.
And I think Trump loves that.
It is an extraordinary unilateral exercise of huge American power, the power of the American
market to say, I will just block you from being able
to participate in the American market.
And you saw him do that in the case
of the Colombian president.
So I think he's not sure.
At one hand, he loves wielding this weapon.
On the other hand, he is something of a protectionist.
But as you say, he notices that markets
don't seem to like it.
So where will it all end up?
My gut is that what happens is tariffs
in the industrialized world, as I said,
have roughly been about 3%.
If you assume all of Trump's tariffs
are actually put in place,
I think it goes up to about 6%.
And if that stays, which is a big if,
other countries will all retaliate.
This is an area where I think we do live in a, it's not even a bipolar world, it's a tripolar world. The Europeans and the
Chinese are very powerful and the Europeans on this issue speak with one voice. So they
will put on reciprocal tariffs. The Chinese will put on reciprocal tariffs. We end up
in a world with more tariffs, more protection. Look, I'm an old fashioned free trader. I
think the whole thing is a disaster.
I think that it is a complete misreading of the last 30 or 40 years of economics. J.E.
Vance, when he was in Germany, in Europe, one of the few backhanded compliments he played
to Germany was he said, at least the Germans didn't go along with this Washington consensus
nonsense and they protected their manufacturing, which is partly true. They didn't protect it through tariffs, by the way.
They protected it by just having very strong apprenticeship programs and what we would
call community college type stuff.
But look at where Germany is.
Germany, the third, fourth largest economy in the world, is stuck in the second industrial
revolution.
What do they make?
Cars, chemicals, machine tools.
They don't have any industry in the digital economy.
The entire digital economy is totally dominated by the US.
Why is that?
Because we allowed ourselves to transition
to where the frontiers of the economy were.
This whole idea of trying to hold on
to the 19th century or the 1920s, it doesn't work.
It's incredibly expensive.
Nobody has been able to do it.
Manufacturing employment today, after Donald Trump's four years and Joe Biden's four years,
is the same as it was roughly 10, 15 years ago.
I think that this whole obsession is fundamentally misconceived.
What we should do is much more redistribution so that the people who lose out in these periods
of technological change are taken care of.
But the idea that we can go back to 1950 is just nuts.
This gets to, to me, one of the real obfuscations of the Trump presidency of MAGA as a movement?
There are a lot of conversations right now that have a term in them that is ill-defined,
let's call it.
Efficiency, right?
What is the Department of Government efficiency about?
What is efficiency?
Efficiency of what?
Towards what? Towards
what? Efficiency requires some other defined ends to be a coherent goal. But here too,
what is America first? What would it mean for that to be successful? What are we looking
at? The trade deficit is going to be the main output of our foreign policy, which by the
way, he's
not consistent on in any way.
He was talking the other day about building a renewed Keystone XL pipeline to Canada,
which if we start importing a bunch of Canadian oil, that's going to increase the trade deficit
with Canada.
Is it manufacturing employment?
Is that what we're supposed to be targeting here?
If America first was working, it'd be manufacturing.
Is it GDP growth?
I have never heard them describe what this new era, this new golden age of American strength
is, is it median wages for men?
They don't, I think, they sort of not articulated a coherent view of American power success.
Is America stronger if AFD takes over Germany?
Why?
Like, what does AFD get us?
I'm curious how you think about this.
If maybe I'm being unfair,
maybe you think there's a better definition of it,
but there is a question all this
of what they're trying to achieve.
Do you feel like you know?
I would guess that America first for Trump
and for many of his followers. And again, I wouldn't put some
of the ideologists of MAGA in the same category. But I think for Trump, it's the idea that the
United States has been constrained for too long by globalism, by worrying about the international
environment, by worrying about all these alliances constrained by these
international organizations.
That again, we've been the sucker.
That what America first means is we're going to break through all that bullshit and we're
just going to do what's good for America.
But what is left undefined, as you're saying, is what is good for America?
Why would it be good for America to break apart the international trading system?
Why would it be good for America to break apart the international trading system? Why would it be good for America to break apart this world it's created? So that part,
I think, is undefined. But you can see the impulse and what the attraction is to a lot
of people. A lot of people who have always felt that the United States, by the way, run
by this elite cabal of urban liberals, overeducated urban liberals
in places like New York and Washington, has been selling America out.
This was basically, if you think of the 1950s, this was the McCarthy attack in many ways.
So I think in some ways it's a hearkening back to that idea.
There's another piece of that being restrained by norms. he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's
he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's
he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's
he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's he's making Gaza a province somehow of America, taking over Greenland.
I think Trump believes and the people around him believe that the norms of the world turned against
territorial expansion in a way that was bad for America.
America in the 19th century expanded. Other countries did too.
And we are powerful and there are things we should want.
That Canada should be the 51st state or at least it should act like a vassal state of America.
That if we want Greenland, we should have it. I think Trump really wants,
fundamentally wants, the land mass of America to be larger when he leaves office than when he came in.
How have you taken Trump's renewed interest in gaining territory?
Yeah, I think you have it exactly right.
And in a way, he has a kind of fascination, not just with America, I think, in the 19th
century in the way exactly the way you described, but also in kind of geopolitics of the 19th
century to the extent that I think he understands it, which is, you know, the strong do what
they can and the weak suffer what they must,
to quote Thucydides.
And that idea that we are powerful, we should be unconstrained is very familiar in a sense.
That's what the Chinese foreign minister said at a meeting of ASEAN nations where he was
telling, I think it was the Philippines or the Singaporeans, you know, you've got to
understand we are big and powerful.
You are not, we are going to understand we are big and powerful.
We are going to tell you what to do.
Obviously it is the way Putin views the world.
That's why I think he has a much more benign view of Putin's desire to have a sphere of
influence, a group of satellite states around him, including Ukraine.
He has a much more benign view, I think, of Chinese expansionism.
He very rarely criticizes it.
I can't remember him ever doing it.
And so then he looks at it and says, well, the United States should similarly have that
kind of sense of the Monroe Doctrine, the Western Hemisphere.
Again, to me, it misses the sort of central point about the transformation of the international
system after World War II, which is that you realized you don't need territory to become rich and powerful and incredibly effective in the world.
Look at South Korea.
South Korea is, I forget now, 15 times the per capita GDP of North Korea.
Look at tiny Israel, which is now essentially an advanced industrial country on a tiny spit
of land.
Think about all the richest and most powerful countries in the world.
Land acquisition has almost nothing to do with it.
You know who has a lot of land?
Russia.
It feels to me like a kind of bizarre, anachronistic way to look at the world, but I agree with
you.
That is the way he's thinking about it.
You could get whatever minerals you wanted to get out of Greenland by just signing a
couple of deals with them.
You don't actually need to own it.
You could redo the Panama Canal Treaty and be much easier, by the way, to let the Panamanians
run it and you've just kind of renegotiated it in terms you like.
But I think for Trump, part of it is this kind of old fashioned view.
And part of it is I do think at the end of the day, there's a strong element of narcissism
that infuses everything that Trump does.
And I think he loves the idea that he would be able to put his stamp on history by saying,
you know, Trump added whatever it was, Greenland or something like that to the United States.
The physical expansion of America would be a great Trump legacy. You mentioned Ukraine and Russia.
We're talking in the week when all that is being negotiated.
Today is Wednesday.
How would you describe what Trump's policy towards Ukraine now is?
It's almost impossible to have a kind of, again, a clear through line because it's moved
so much.
He had a tweet in which he said, you know, the Russians better realize, Putin better
realize this war has ruined his country.
He better settle.
And if he doesn't,
we're gonna put additional sanctions
and his favorite weapon tariffs on Russia.
But it seemed to suggest that he understood
that the principal obstacle to a peace deal
was not Zelensky but Putin.
But then he shifted entirely and enormously
in the last few weeks
where he's called Zelensky
a dictator.
He said he started the war, all that stuff.
I mean, the UN resolution where the United States sided with Russia and North Korea and
Belarus.
So, you know, you could argue that again, in Trump's case, so much of it is personal.
He doesn't like Zelensky. But if you step back from that, I think that Trump in his heart believes that Russia has
legitimate claims over Ukraine and so has a much softer line on Russia.
I think he thinks that the Russians should keep the territory they've acquired.
He thinks Ukraine should not be a part of NATO.
He thinks that maybe Ukraine should have a kind of neutrality in foreign policy.
These are all essentially the Russian demands.
And I think there's no way to read his mind, but my sense from listening to him and watching
him is he thinks all those Russian claims are kind of broadly legitimate.
Let me push on this.
You know all this much better than I do.
I don't think he thinks anything about Ukraine and Russia, whose claims are legitimate.
I think he thinks Ukraine is worthless to the US and somebody at some point persuaded him there
are mineral rights there. And he thinks Russia is not. That there is value for the
US, for Trump personally, for the US economy, and access to Russia, good relations with
Russia. And that there is some part of him that genuinely doesn't understand why we give
a shit about Ukraine, as opposed to cutting a deal with Putin and getting something out of that transaction.
Yeah, and if you think about the countries
and the leaders he likes,
it's either the country is very strong
or the leader is very strong, right?
It's Putin, Xi, Modi, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia,
Orban, Erdogan, you know,
those are the people he speaks about with
respect.
The more muddled, compromised, weaker leaders of coalition governments in Europe, he finds
feckless, he finds uninteresting.
You know, so it's a very interesting, it's also, you know, that he, I think he likes
these more old fashioned countries.
You know, it's, I've thought about this once and I don't know if it's a reasonable point to make, but the
countries he seems fascinated by and respects are countries which you could imagine having
lots of Trump towers.
The countries he doesn't like, Europe, you couldn't imagine a Trump tower.
In that way, is he picking up on something real?
And I think he sees a bit with JD Vance's. JD Vance is going out of his way to
alienate the European governments of the moment. America is weighing in on behalf of the AFD in
Germany. Their view is that there are regimes that they have affinity with. And that the proper
nature of American alliance isn't some unchanging alliance between America and Europe because
we're all quote unquote liberal democracies. Trump doesn't want us to be a liberal democracy.
The proper nature is between regimes of affinity. And in that way, Putin sees a world more like
Trump does than Keir Starmer in the UK. Erdogan sees a world more like Trump does than Keir Starmer in the UK.
Erdogan sees the world more like Trump does
than Justin Trudeau does.
That the nature of the alliances they are seeking
is a nature of regimes that are like them,
regimes that could actually support, you know,
have a genuine ideological affinity for who Trump is
and what he wants and the world that he wants to see. Yeah, I think you're raising something very important. I think that part of
what's going on here, this new dynamic in international relations we're watching,
is that it's not all about power, it's about ideology. So if you think about
what is it that Putin is reacting to in the rise and hegemony of the West after the collapse of
communism?
Some of it is Western power, the expansion of NATO, for sure.
But a lot of what Putin has been obsessed by has been the expansion of Western liberal
ideas and ideology.
So if you notice the things that he talks so much about are the rise of multiculturalism
in the West, the rise of a kind of libertine gender ideology, the idea of gender fluidity,
even weighed in on the J.K. Rowling controversy.
These issues are central to the way that Putin thinks about Russian power, the power of his
regime.
And so he's viewed the rising tide and the spreading of Western liberal ideas as as much
a threat as the expansion of NATO.
So notice that when he really reacted with force against Georgia in 2008 and then against
Ukraine in 2014, in both cases, the issue was not actually that these countries were
about to join NATO.
They were not.
It's that they were going to join the European Union or at least wanted to have better relations
with the European Union.
What does the European Union represent?
It represents some kind of idea of a Western-style capitalist liberal democracy.
And so the way he looks at it is he doesn't want to be surrounded by those kind of countries.
He wants to be surrounded by countries like Belarus and Kazakhstan, quasi-authoritarian,
somewhat kleptocratic regimes that he can control and manipulate.
And I think Xi also, if you listen to Xi Jinping, a lot of the things he's talked about is the
dangers of too much
westernization, too much liberalism.
The Chinese have not just cracked down on the private sector, they've cracked down on
what they called the effeminacy of men.
He's talked about the virtues of motherhood and women going back to raising families.
So again, he views this rising tide of Western liberalism as as much a threat, I think, as Western hard
power.
And here the irony is Trump and Vance agree with them.
And so, you know, for the first time now you have in America a party on ideology that says,
yes, that's right.
That's the, and in a strange sense, and Steve Bannon would explicitly say this, our real
allies should be Russia.
And that becomes the new alliance system.
Now that takes it further than we are right now, but it's those inclinations.
But that's, I think, where this is really going.
And I think the way you see it is in Vance and Musk.
In Trump's first term, Trump is surrounded,
particularly on the national security and foreign policy side,
by members of the traditional Republican establishment.
Your H.R. McMaster's, your Rex Tillerson's,
Mike Pence as his vice president.
And none of them want this move.
This is not why John Kelly got into politics.
And so, it doesn't really happen. This is not why John Kelly got into politics.
And so it doesn't really happen.
What there is instead are these weird moments in interviews and elsewhere,
where Trump seems to talk about Putin with real affection in a way that he never talks about anybody in Europe that way.
Fast forward.
You have Trump's second term, in which he is surrounded by people who've been spending the intervening years building the ideology for what Trump intuitively was
moving towards.
And it's not a complete purge in the Republican Party, but what's left is too weak, even if
the Senate Republicans don't love it in every instance. And so now you see this, like the war between autocracy as an ideological phenomenon
and liberal democracy as an ideological phenomenon isn't now between America and Europe and these other countries,
it's inside America too. And now you really see it, right?
These people who are more framework oriented going there and actively weighing in,
as Elon Musk did on behalf of the AfD in Germany, JD Vance going to the Munich conference and really
telling the Europeans that the great security threat is the way they run their governments,
not Russia, not climate change.
It is the temperament and the policy of European liberalism.
Yeah.
You know, many years ago ago I wrote an article called
The Rise of Illiberal Democracy in Foreign Affairs.
And, you know, I was trying to describe this phenomenon
of countries that were with majorities, with pluralities.
We had elected leaders who then systematically degraded
the rule of law and individual rights
and individual liberties.
And of course, I meant it as a term of condemnation.
Viktor Urban gave a speech a few years after he came to power.
He didn't quote me, but he cited the phrase, illiberal democracy, and said, people have
talked about illiberal democracy.
That is what we want to achieve.
That is our goal.
We want to be an illiberal democracy because we don't believe in the tenets of Western
liberalism.
And I think that that is where some impulses of the Trump administration go.
Now, I do want to say there are two possibilities and you have outlined them yourself because
when you first started the conversation, you said the Trump people tell me, look, we
just want to use unused American power and get a better deal within this framework that
we've built up, right?
We're okay with the liberal international system.
We just think we got screwed.
So that's one theory of where Trump is going.
And I actually had a conversation with a very senior Republican this week who was
hoping and I would say was arguing that that's where Trump is going.
Yeah, there's a lot of noise.
It's very messy.
He does things.
He negotiates out in the open in ways that you never would by demeaning Zelensky.
But what he's trying to do is to get a better deal.
But then there's the second view, which is the one we've just been talking about, which is no, no, no, he's not trying to get a better deal. But then there's the second view, which is the one we've just been talking about, which
is no, no, no, he's not trying to get a better deal.
He is trying to systematically remake the international system.
It reminds me, there was a period in the 1870s and 80s when the three great conservative
monarchs of Europe, the Russians, the Austro-Hungarians, and the Germans got together and created a
three emperors
league.
It was called the Dreigeiser Bund.
They got together because they feared the rise of liberalism in Europe after the revolutions
of 1848.
It was meant to be these three conservative monarchs holding back the tide of liberalism.
To a certain extent, you wonder whether for some of the people involved here, that
is the way they're thinking about it.
We need to, we and Putin and maybe even, you know, Viktor Orban and people like Erdogan
and she, we need to hold back all this kind of godless, reckless, libertine liberalism
that is engulfing the world.
I do think there's a why not both to this, which is that as you were saying
at the top of the show, it is very hard to say anything definitive about Donald
Trump because he actually is flexible. And he starts in one place and ends in
another. And he says we're going to annex Gaza and use it to build hotels.
And I do want to talk about this in more detail.
But he also seems perfectly happy with a situation where the Arab League steps up.
He says he wants to slap huge tariffs on Canada, Mexico.
But he also seems kind of happy if they just give him some concessions.
And I think two things are happening at once.
He takes deals.
He doesn't want a lot of friction. He doesn't want markets
to freak out. He doesn't want to be committing U.S. troops in places where they're not wanted.
Trump has a real sense that the tolerance of the American people for pain and bad headlines
is low. And on the other hand, there is an erosion to what he is doing, right?
He is pushing and pushing and pushing and the rocks slowly give way.
And so even as he's taking these deals, he's also alienating the Europeans.
Even as he's taking these deals, he's changing the way people think about America.
Even as he's taking these deals, maybe cuts the deal on minerals with Ukraine,
he's also signaled to Moscow that he's open for a transaction. And so even if he doesn't go all the way in the first deal, I mean, we're a month into his second term, he's sending signals to every other
player on the field to reimagine their strategies. And for some, that's gonna mean reimagining their strategy
to create countermeasures to the US.
I think you're seeing that among the Europeans.
For some, that is gonna mean reimagining their strategies,
their offerings, their positioning,
to come closer to the US,
to give Trump a deal that he can sell here.
I think that's for Putin, right?
I think that's for potentially China, somewhat to my surprise, given Trump's historic feeling
that China is going to destroy the American economy.
And you know, this game will be repeated again and again.
By the end of it, by the end of turn after turn after turn of this, the entire system
is in a very different place.
Not a place you could have gotten it into in one month, but a place you could definitely
get it into in four years.
Yeah, and I think NATO has essentially been eroded already
because what is NATO?
NATO is not the buildings, the treaty.
NATO is something very simple.
It is the question, will the United States of America
come to the defense of a small European country
if attacked by Russia?
And I think the events of the last few weeks have left,
I can tell you having talked to many Europeans,
have left the Europeans in no doubt
that if Lithuania were attacked tomorrow by Russia,
there is almost no chance that Donald Trump
would do everything it took to defend Lithuania.
So that means they start asking themselves,
you know, what is this new world we're living in?
So you're seeing, I mean, this is really historic,
that the guy who's going to become the chancellor
of Germany, Friedrich Merz, has said,
the most urgent task for Europe now
is to begin a step-by-step independence
from the United States, because the United States,
or at least Donald Trump, have shown themselves to be
indifferent to the fate of Europe.
That is seismic for what is really America's most important ally in Europe to say that
our principal strategic task now is to find a strategy of independence away from the United
States.
And you're going to see other countries do variations of that.
And in some cases, those countries will be probably doing private kind of hedging in
a way that they can't publicly admit to.
The one part I don't agree with you is, I think there are countries that are going to
do deals with America.
Everyone is going to be wary of a long-term relationship because they
realize that certainly in this new world those don't mean that much. I was in
Australia last December and I met with a senior official there who said to me, you
know, we're very happy to be in this closer relationship with the United
States. We're delighted that you're sharing your nuclear technology with us,
you know, the nuclear subs deal that we made with them.
But the big question we wonder about is,
we have now put ourselves
in a structurally confrontational role,
vis-a-vis our principal trading partner, China.
We didn't have to do that.
China is a long way away.
We were happily trading with them.
We hope to continue to do that,
but it has completely changed the relationship we have with China.
That's okay if you have our back.
But if in a few years you decide to cut a deal with China, we will have made a generational
strategic error.
And I think that is what's going to be in every country's mind, you know, about getting
close to the United States in a long term.
That's why I say these alliances took eight decades to build.
Let me take the other side of this.
What are the chances that Trump is exactly what Europe needs right now?
That Europe is a mess.
That it has not invested nearly enough in its defense for decades,
that it has been watching its productivity numbers functionally collapse,
that in something JD Vance was saying, it is over-regulated,
and that is one reason it has almost no strong technology companies right now,
that Europe was not getting stronger under Joe Biden's protective umbrella.
That we've been watching actually Europe weaken.
We have been encouraging a kind of dependence from it.
And that here, I guess I'm sounding like the senior Republican you were talking to.
But I've heard this and I don't think it's crazy.
That you may not ideologically like why Donald Trump is
doing this. But if the end result of it is a more independent Europe that spends more
on defense and takes its own economic revitalization more seriously, that would be good for all
parties. And that it is frankly unlikely that Putin, when he's trying to build better relations
with America, is going to invade a bunch of other countries and embarrass Donald Trump.
So the Moscow problem is not that big of a problem in the near term.
And a stronger Europe would be good for deterring that in the long run, and it was not going
to happen under Joe Biden or Kamala Harris.
I broadly agree with what you're saying.
The Europe needed a kind of a kick in the pants.
And interestingly, the threat from Russia has turned out not to be big enough to get
Europe kind of energized.
Because of us.
It could only not be big enough because of us.
And the threat of the abandonment of the United States is actually more significant than the
threat of Russian aggression.
And so they will probably spend more, they will coordinate more on defense, maybe they'll
even do more.
I think that the fundamental issue with productivity in Europe is much larger than the US or Russia.
Seeing where the total factor productivity rises in Europe over the next five years may
be unrelated, but I do think they will coordinate more in defense, they'll coordinate more in foreign policy, they'll
spend more.
What you will lose is they will be less deferential to the United States.
I think it might be bad for us.
Right.
I was about to say we had a system where we kind of ran the world.
We ran the world because the European Union essentially did exactly what we wanted them
to and was a satellite of the United States.
So we would be experimenting with a different system.
Yeah, the Europeans will spend more.
It is worth pointing out there was a reason we wanted to denationalize the foreign and
defense policies of countries like Germany.
And Germany in particular, trapped in the center of Europe, has always had a difficult
time having a kind of sensible, moderate foreign policy.
So there were great virtues to saying to the Germans, you know what guys, don't worry so
much about your security, we'll take care of it.
For the last hundred years when you've worried about it, things haven't turned out so well.
And I think Germany is a completely different country now, but it is taking us into a different world.
By the way, there will be no defense savings out of all this. The idea that the United States will
be able to spend less because the Europeans are spending more misunderstands what our defense
budget is about. We are the only global superpower. We are trying to be engaged in every part of the world.
I mean, this is a president who says we should be in Gaza.
We have to deter the Japanese.
We need Greenland because we want to be able to be sure that we control the Arctic.
And by the way, we need to be controlling the Panama Canal.
That's the way even Trump conceives of America's role. So there's going to be
no defense saving. So at the end of the day, yeah, it's possible that we get a more independent
Europe that spends more on defense. I think I would prefer a kind of tough love approach
where there was actually some love.
Among the places where I am surprised by what policy is looking like and what the rhetoric coming out of the administration is like is China. Where, what were we
told he was going to do and going to think? That he's gonna come in and put a 65%
tariff on all goods from China. Nothing like that is happening. He's been much
more aggressive in some ways with threats of tariffs towards Europe and
Canada and Mexico. He's now begun talking about some kind of big deal with China, where they would
just buy more of our stuff, which is sort of like a deal he struck in the first
term, even though they didn't end up buying the stuff.
But I would have told you that he actively wants a hostile relationship with China.
And now he doesn't seem to actively want a hostile relationship with China.
It was him who initially came up with, or at least people in his administration,
with forcing the sell-off of TikTok. Now he's the savior of TikTok.
How do you describe where the Trump administration seems to be, or seems to be moving on China?
Again, you know, with Trump, so much of it is personal. So the reason he seems to have
moved on TikTok is because he realized that there was a large group
of people supporting him on TikTok.
TikTok was good for him.
It was a good platform for him to get his message out.
And it's possible sometimes with Trump
that it's as simple as that.
But I think that with China,
you have always had this conflicting pressure
and you saw it in Trump 1, in 1.0.
He was hostile to China in the campaign.
He talked about massive tariffs against China and he comes in and he invites Xi Jinping
to Mar-a-Lago and he's dazzled by that and his grandchildren sing Chinese songs to Xi
Jinping and he talks about this beautiful chocolate cake he serves him.
He likes the idea that he is sitting with the second most powerful person in the world
and they have a relationship and they get on.
The whole Trump 1.0 on China was kind of a nothing because they put tariffs on and somebody
did a calculation that something like 95% of the value of the
revenues collected for the tariffs went to subsidies to American farmers to compensate
them for the loss.
So we didn't even make any money off of it, which Trump often talks about with tariffs.
This time around, I think he seems to be much less even rhetorically hostile toward China.
My inclination is to go where you're going.
He wants to deal with China.
He wants to have some kind of a better working relationship with China.
I think to a large extent that could be a good thing.
I think that one of the things I worry about in the new world we're going into, China is
embarking
on a massive military buildup.
China is probably going to quadruple the number of nuclear weapons it has in the next 10 years.
To a certain extent, I understand China's point of view, which is they're the second
richest country in the world.
Why should they not have an arsenal that's as big as Russia's?
But it can be very destabilizing.
That period when the Soviets expanded their nuclear arsenal
in the late 50s and 60s, and the United States
and the Soviets were going match,
it was a very unstable period.
Think of the Berlin crisis, the Cuban Missile Crisis.
So to have a better working relationship with China
in this period, I think is a very good
thing.
And if for whatever reason Trump gets there, I'd be the first to applaud it.
How have you taken Trump's attitude towards Israel and Gaza, his proposals, his appointments?
How would you describe it? I think what Trump represented for the Israelis was the most unqualified support that any
American president was ever going to give to an Israeli prime minister.
And the relationship is obviously very personal between Trump and Bibi.
As a result of that, by the way, he was able to get a ceasefire because in
effect it seems that his envoy told Bibi, you're not going to get a better deal from
Trump so you better take this one. This is in the waning days of the Biden administration.
But I think that it's also a kind of ideological affinity to Bibi-ism, if you will. If you notice in that UN resolution in which the United
States absolutely bizarrely sided with Russia against Ukraine, against almost
every democratic country in the world, in basically not condemning the Russian
aggression in Ukraine, there were two unusual countries that went along with the US, Russia, North Korea, Belarus.
It was Hungary and Israel.
And I think what that tells you is that there is this ideological affinity that Trump feels
with Bibi, both wrongly persecuted by the liberal elites of their country, both representing the kind of silent
majority in their minds, both believing in huge amounts of disruption, both tough guys.
So there's, I think, a kind of personal and ideological connection that Trump has with
Bibi's Israel.
And you can see it when you watch them together.
The fear that the people I know who work on Middle East policy had about Donald Trump
was that if he was elected, you would have an American president functionally supportive
of Israeli annexation of the West Bank and possibly of Gaza.
What they didn't expect was any desire on that same American president's behalf to personally annex Gaza, right?
Nobody saw, well, actually, no, Israel shouldn't take Gaza.
America should take Gaza.
What do you think that proposal is?
Do you understand where it came from?
Do you have a sense of how much he would actually
risk to make it happen?
Like how have you read it?
You know, we have tried to understand it.
And most people, with a lot of what Trump says,
it does appear to have come out almost spontaneously.
And so my guess is what happened is,
Bibi Netanyahu essentially expressed
what has long been a kind of right-wing
fantasy in Israel, which is if only we could clear these Palestinians out of Gaza, this
would be a great place for us to, you know, it was a big mistake for us to leave and it's
an amazing piece of land.
We could think of the wonders we could do with Gaza.
So it maybe came out of that. What it has done is it has in some ways given comfort to both the extremists on both sides.
So right-wing Israelis now say, and I mean people to the right of Bibi Netanyahu, say,
you see this was not a fantasy, this was something real.
The President of the United States is now advocating getting the Palestinians out of Gaza.
So all those people have dug in and believed
that this is really viable.
And by the way, it's spreading to their views on the West
Bank as well.
Because the right-wing fantasy in Israel has always been,
make life so difficult for the Palestinians
that effectively they will slowly but surely
start moving away.
They'll go to Jordan. they'll go to Egypt.
The Egyptians and Jordanians will be forced to take them.
But on the other hand, it does seem to have also reinforced among the hardline Palestinians
the idea that, look, the Americans only mean bad things for us.
Be very wary of any of this American involvement because what the Americans
really want to do is ethnically cleanse all of us out of Gaza.
So they're digging in, they're trying to figure out how do we maintain our presence, how do
we make sure that if there is some kind of an American or Israeli suzerainty here, we
would launch an insurgency.
So I don't see it as having produced anything particularly good.
And it has really reinforced this very strong element within the Israeli right that believes
there is a solution to the Palestinian problem. And it is largely ethnic cleansing of Gaza
and the West Bank. In Joe Biden, you had the apex of the liberal international order believers.
Joe Biden's whole career in the Senate was devoted to this quite significantly.
He was known for his commitment to these alliances, known for his belief in a sort of muscular
liberal internationalism.
It was always notable the way when he was deciding whether or not to stay in the race,
the thing that seemed to animate him in that period was NATO and if not for me, who's going
to protect NATO and the alliances.
And they had this vision of American strength through the Alliance system.
And it led to a world, or it coexisted with a world,
that by the end of his term, felt to many people
like it had fallen into disorder.
You had Russia invading Ukraine, you had the war in Gaza,
and you had a sense of American weakness.
I mean, some of that was Joe Biden's inability to personally project strength, whatever you
thought of the actual policies.
Now you've had Trump come in for a month and the whole world is reshuffling in response
to what he says.
You have negotiations happening with Moscow, you have mineral deals being signed with Ukraine, you have in Gaza, all of a sudden,
for the insanity in my view of Trump's actual proposal, I am hearing more serious proposals
from the Arab countries than I was before, yet Yair Lapid, one of the opposition leaders
in Israel, had a reasonable, I thought, proposal of wiping out Egyptian foreign debt in return
for Egypt taking over rebuilding and governance
of Gaza for a period of time.
The sense that the world is responding to American strength.
Did Democrats fumble this in their belief that a restrained America was a strong America
that more did not need to be projected?
Did they leave the opening for someone like Trump who said, there's all this surplus power
and the American public is going to respond to seeing someone come pick it up.
That the sense that the world should respond to America, that we should be feared by our
friends and our enemies alike had been dismissed.
I've heard this from people involved in the Middle East conflict.
Nobody feared Joe Biden.
Look, I think that there's no question the United States had enormous power.
It sort of contradicts the central premise of the Trump-Vance domestic argument, which
is that America has been hollowed out and ravaged over the last 30 years by the forces
of globalization and liberalism.
In fact, the real story of the last 30 years is the forces of globalization and liberalism. In fact, the real story of the last 30 years is
the United States has emerged dominant among the rich
countries in the world. You know, we are with the
eurozone.
And they seem to envy the political systems of countries
that are in terrible shape.
Right.
Hungary, Russia, China, which is seeing its growth rates
fall. They have a lot of envy of systems that you would
not want to emulate. Right. China doesn They have a lot of envy of systems that you would not wanna emulate.
China doesn't have a trade deficit
and look at China, right?
That's not a country you'd want to emulate the economy of.
So there is a kind of weird contradiction,
but I agree with you.
The United States has enormous power and you can use it.
I don't think that it is a sign of strength
to go around bullying smaller countries and
forcing them to say things that are often rhetorical concessions, you know, get everyone
to call it the Gulf of America.
The Panamanians are a good example.
The guy who's running Panama now is a very pro-American conservative, and he's now been
humiliated and made to, you know, mouth some kind of nonsense that allows
Trump to claim he got a victory.
Same thing happened with Canada and Mexico.
I'm going to draw, because I want to push you to the strong examples here, the strong
counter examples, which is to say that I had Jake Sullivan on the show and we were talking
about Ukraine and we were talking about Israel.
And I would say the view that emerged from him is that it would be immoral to use American leverage
to push our allies into negotiations in Ukraine to force Israel to have done really anything
differently in Gaza. And that as soon as Trump came on the scene, the termed out people would
listen, like the hostage deal got signed and Yahoo dropped some objections, like they move forward on
some kind of ceasefire. You had negotiations not in the way I would like to see them had.
Preconceding functionally everything to Moscow is in my view fundamentally immoral.
But the level at which the Biden administration would not push its own allies and did not
act like it had leverage over someone like Zelensky was strange by the end.
So you could tactically say there are some cases
where they didn't handle it well.
I, for many, many months, was criticizing
the Biden administration on the Russia-Ukraine front.
I mean, I thought that it was important
to get more realistic.
On Israel, it's a particular dynamic that you well know,
which is that for a Democratic president,
it is very hard to push the Israelis to do anything
because they know they can outflank a Democrat
by going directly to Congress,
by going directly to essentially to Republicans.
Bibi Netanyahu did that to Barack Obama,
who's a much more skilled politician
and negotiator than Joe Biden was.
And when Obama tried to push him on the Iran nuclear thing,
Bibi just did an end run
around Obama, went to Washington, got the Republicans to invite him to give a speech
to the joint session of Congress, and completely tied Obama and Knox on that one.
So that is a particular problem.
But I agree with you that tactically there are some places where you could push harder,
but I think if you ask me which philosophy is the right one for the United States to
have, I think it's the one that has built these alliance structures and the system for
80 years by not viewing this as a series of transactions, but as a relationship.
Trump is a transaction guy.
Think about every real estate deal he's ever done.
At the end of the day, the person he does the deal with never wants to deal with him again. That is
basically one of the leitmotifs of Trump's business career. He screws you in
the deal and then moves on and the next time around screws somebody else. But
that's not what American foreign policy has been built on. It's been built on
these alliances and these relationships that have endured now for almost a
century. By the way, very few countries have managed that.
So Trump, by strong arming a few people,
a few of these countries will get,
in the short term, a better deal.
Again, we're very powerful, we're very rich, we, you know.
But is that gonna build real trust
for the next 40, 50 years?
I don't think so.
It's gonna give Trump a few good headlines.
And by the way, on the Gaza thing, I think it's important to remember because I've spent a
lot of time in the Middle East over the last nine months or so.
I've been to Saudi Arabia four times.
They were always willing to pay for the reconstruction.
The idea that Trump's bizarre Gaza proposal has gotten the Saudis and the Egyptians to
be ready to be involved is not true. The issue has always been who will govern Gaza. And that was, you know, the Israelis say it can't
be any Hamas involvement. The Arabs say, look, if it's going to be no Hamas involvement, then you
have to allow the Palestinian Authority to do it. And the Israelis say no. And the Israeli response
is why can't the Arabs do it? Well, the Arabs don't want to be in the position of ruling over the Palestinians.
They don't want to be in a position where Hamas launches an insurgency against them.
That has been the sticking point, not the money.
They've always been willing to pay the money.
And by the way, that will continue to be the sticking point.
That is the hard part of the Gaza business, not getting the Saudis and the UAE to pony
up the cash.
The thing that I think I'm pushing towards here is not is Trumpism the right long-term strategy for
the US, but assuming the system survives the next couple of years, which in the range of possibilities,
I don't think is 100%. I don't think it's 100% domestically and I don't think it's 100% internationally.
I think there's a question of there being sort of thesis, antithesis, synthesis, dynamics
to where things probably need to go.
I think that was Doge, where Democrats were accepting, I mean, I have a whole book on
this coming out, but Democrats were accepting of huge levels of government proceduralism, obstruction, the inability
of government to deliver or be responsive.
They became defenders of government.
Now you have a group heedlessly taking chainsaws, trying to actually wreck the thing in a way
I consider immoral and genuinely dangerous.
But I think to find some stable equilibrium, Democrats are going to have to take some lessons
from this, not just say we were right before, you guys should have listened to us.
In the way I think we now understand that central left parties, kind of in Europe and
in America, had adopted positions on immigration that were politically unstable. And they don't need to go all the
way to where the far right is, but they can't be where they were if they're
going to win power. Is there some ways in which lessons need to be learned here
for there to be an effective center-left answer, or even just left answer, or
liberal answer, to what this set of challenges represents? Is there some dissatisfaction with how the system is working, either from the American
perspective or the international perspective, that needs to be integrated even if you find,
as many of us do, where Trump is going immoral?
Yeah, look, the left has collapsed everywhere.
I mean, if you look at the real story of the European elections over the last 10 years
is the collapse of the left.
The French left has collapsed.
The German left has collapsed.
You know, Holland, wherever you look,
Sweden was run by the Swedish social Democrats for 75 years,
and they're in trouble.
And I think it's principally over the issue of immigration.
As you know, I've been hardline on immigration.
I think the whole system is, the asylum system needs to be scrapped.
And the fact that the left was not willing to frontally acknowledge that you had millions
of people coming in who were obviously gaming the system, claiming to be asylum seekers
when they were really economic migrants.
The left is paying a huge price for that everywhere.
And they will continue to pay a price for that because even now it'll feel like catch up when they do it.
On the international side, I don't think there was any such deep dissatisfaction with the
international system as it exists.
I think it's to a large extent Trump's grievances around it that have exploited it, but he taps
into a certain kind of American Jacksonianism that says, why are
we entangled with these people?
Why?
The United States has always had two fundamental attitudes.
One, we are too good to participate in the world, or we are so good that we should completely
transform the world.
But to actually engage in the world as it exists has always been difficult for the United
States because it's an ideological nation.
It believes it is exceptional and all that.
And I think you see some of that in the Trump attitude.
I think the point you made about Europe is the principal place where I would say there
was a lesson to learn that we had gotten too complacent about the Western alliance and
we had gotten too complacent about Europe's foreign policy dysfunctions. And I think, you know, in some ways Trump's willingness
to just sort of think the unthinkable and say the unsayable, like he said, for example,
maybe we should make a deal with Iran. You know, he went in his first term and tried to make a deal
with Kim Jong-un. Those things I actually do find refreshing because why not try to see if there's a way
you could make a deal with Kim Jong-un?
Why not see if there's a way?
I think all these things are low probabilities of success, but there is something to be said
for thinking out of the box in some way or the other.
I feel like with Trump, the danger is not the thinking out of the box in some way or the other. I feel like with Trump, the danger is not the
thinking out of the box part. The danger is he doesn't value that the box we created is a pretty
special box. And it's been very hard in human history to find an era of peace and prosperity
and great power stability of the kind we have been able to create. So before we have this kind of Maoist nihilism and say, let's burn the whole thing down and
see where it goes, let's appreciate the box.
How does the destruction of USAID fit into this?
Because that got filed under Doge, I think it's been treated as less of a foreign policy
move than it actually is.
They seem to have successfully continued
to keep the money pretty cut off in a lot of cases,
even in places where say Marco Rubio
seemed to want PEPFAR funding,
which is funding for HIV AIDS medication,
particularly in Africa, turned on
and it seems to have not really turned back on.
Is this foreign policy?
Is this just a kind of internal jihadism against what they see as the liberal nonprofit industrial
complex?
What is the import of what they've done to USAID?
And what is to the best you believe they have it or the rationale for it?
So I've thought about this a lot because why would you choose USAID?
It's 1% of the federal budget.
If you were able to change some of the uploading mechanisms in Medicare Advantage, you'd probably
save more money than in reforming USAID.
Medicare is a trillion dollars, Social Security is a trillion and a half dollars, USAID is
about $40 billion.
And they don't seem to be reforming it. They're annihilating it. Right. So I think what happened is if there's thought
behind it, there must have been. Musk and company said what is the least popular
form of spending that the US does? And Marco Rubio alluded to this. It's
obviously foreign aid. You're sending money to foreigners. People feel like why
shouldn't we be spending it at home? It's easy, right?
So I think that that was the idea.
Let's go for an easy win.
Let's go for something where particularly our base,
the MAGA base, and most Americans in general
think this is a waste of government spending.
And they went at it with a brutality, I think,
to send a signal to other government agencies,
don't block
us.
This is what will happen to you if you try to in some way or the other do an end run
around what we're doing.
Look, the effect to my mind is tragic because there's the sort of geopolitical argument
that this is the soft power of the United States.
We go into these countries and people think well of America
and now the Chinese are going to go in, the Russians are going to go in. I believe all
that. But I think you put it in those competitive terms to sell it and I get it. But you know,
it's been one of the wonderful things that the United States has done in the world. Foreign
aid barely existed before 1945. It's again one of these revolutions of foreign policy that America in large part initiated.
And I think it is largely the impulse comes from the idea with the richest country in
the history of the world.
It's also be a great thing for us to be the most generous country in the history of the
world.
Four out of every 10 humanitarian dollars spent in the world are spent by the United States.
And most of USAID's budget is food and medicine.
You're literally feeding the hungry,
your clothing's being sick people.
I've seen this on the ground.
The people who do work at USAID,
these are people who move to Mozambique or Ghana
to learn how to get water filtration
systems in there.
They're getting paid $60,000, $70,000 a year.
They're not doing it for the money.
They're not doing it for the glory.
They're doing it because they believe that the United States can have a kind of positive
impact on the world.
And to see the agency gutted, the funding pulled, and these people demeaned and demonized, called
a criminal enterprise.
It's so sad.
I grew up in India, and I saw so much of the USAID funding, which was exactly the kind
of stuff that DOJ demonizes, which was to say, I mean, there was a program where they'd
show old American movies in the U.S. consulate. And a whole bunch of us would go there.
And I remember, I mean, I went to, I saw It's a Wonderful Life and movies like that.
And you know what?
It made me fall in love with America.
I think that's always been America's great strength, which is that it's the Chinese who
do these deals with an African country and with the dictator and say, you know, we'll
build you a dam and in return for say, you know, we'll build you
a dam and in return for that, here's what we want and by the way, you can take 10%.
What American soft power has been, we let the world know who we are, we let the world
know that we're a big, open, generous country.
And some of that is funding plays and movies and some of it is, and most of it is food and
medicine.
And I was always a matter of great pride to me that the United States did that.
And it's very sad that it's for now at least gone away.
I think it also gets to what is America first.
And one of the things that I actually think it is, is a total devaluing of non-American
lives.
We were talking, you were saying a minute ago, how USAID is being, Musk calls it a,
what was it, a ball of worms.
It's like not a, no worms in the apple, just a ball of worms.
So that's a horrible thing to say.
You know, I know people who work in aid like
you do. Musk is a billionaire who jets around the world fathering children with Lord knows
how many women and tweeting, you know, sending missives on X 300 times a day and these people who, you know, went to amazing schools go work on
marginally improving economic growth by making the textile sector more efficient in Ghana.
So just, it appalls me, but at least like the Americans who are working for USAID
exist in the calculus. The administration hates them and wants to demonize them and wants them to go to the
private sector where they'll be more productive.
But the children who needed PEPFAR funding, the antiretrovirals from PEPFAR, they don't
exist in the conversation here at all.
People drink dirtier water.
And it's always, I think, a difficult thing from the perspective of a nation, right, which
does have a preference for its own citizens.
Like how should you think about an economic migrant whose, you know, any individual economic
migrant's life would be much better off if they could come to the U.S. and for reasons
of stability in the economy, you can't let everybody who would like to come to the U.S.
in.
Like how do you value that, right?
It's a really hard question and we don't have, I think, very good answers.
And we tack forward and backward.
How do you value people we save from dying of malnutrition?
The answers have been complex, not always really debated,
but somewhat.
We value those lives somewhat.
It's not how we think about Americans, but it's not nothing.
And I kind of think one of the messages here is it's nothing. Like the value of foreign lives is nothing.
The value of people in the West Bank
whose land is gonna be annexed is nothing.
Our care about the Ukrainians is nothing.
I think that's some of the message of it too,
particularly domestically,
that USAID was about spending American money to not really serve our interests
first and foremost.
I think you're right to say that when we say it's really about our soft power, not truly
telling the truth anymore, it's about expressing our values, which is that other lives matter.
And particularly if there's cost-effective ways we can help them, we should.
And the message here is they don't, and we shouldn't.
You know, I think that one of the ironies here is that I do believe, as you do, that
American aid was never entirely about geopolitics and geostrategy.
Part of it, I think, came out of a kind of deep, high Protestant impulse of saving the world.
And I think it is one of the central messages of Christianity that all human beings are
equal in the eyes of God and it is incumbent on the rich to look after the poor.
I've always been struck by the, if you read the Sermon on the Mount, if you read Paul's
letter to the Galatians, that's what
Christianity is about.
Not if you hear JD Vance's version of it.
Right, which to me is bizarre.
And yet here you have this Christian administration neglecting what strikes me as the central
tenets of Christianity, which are, you know, be nice to poor people, help people who are
in need, the good Samaritan, all that
stuff. And this was our one expression of it. For every, every hundred dollars the federal
government spent, we were saying we're going to give one dollar to clothe the naked and
feed the hungry.
And I would have been, look, I am somebody who believes you could have targeted a bunch
of those dollars better. I would have moved a lot to public health,
to cash transfers.
You know, if you want to say we shouldn't be doing plays, fine.
We can have that debate.
Actually auditing USAID would have been fine with me.
That's why I think the message was that they didn't do that.
I've heard people...
And just to push back, USAID was audited 60 times
in the last year. Thank you, yes.
You could have audited from their perspective.
Yeah, you could have audited from their perspective.
By the way, that play was not a USAID spend. It was an American ambassador who decided
to help to fund a cultural festival in Ireland. So much of this is misinformation.
There's been a lot of bullshit here, but I know a lot of people who work in foreign aid
and a lot of people who work in making foreign aid more effective.
There is a big bureaucracy and there is waste.
No question about it.
And not only, and I don't even mean waste.
I actually mean that from their perspective, I think it would be reasonable for a Republican
administration to come in and say, too much of this is cultural.
I want this money spent differently.
Fine.
I've heard people say, well, what Doge is really doing is zero-based budgeting.
We're just making everything be justify itself.
Well, then you would have it re-justify itself based on some set of measures, right?
Does it achieve this?
Dollars per life saved, right?
I know people who spend all their days trying to figure out how many dollars does it take
to save a life here.
And the not doing any of that, that to me was actually the message.
They didn't want USAID audited.
Because actually a lot of things sound great if you audited USAID, even from any kind of
humanitarian perspective they could come up with.
PEPFAR is an amazing program.
It was that the expression of values was the point there.
And the expression of values of Trump and America first is that we are the only ones
who count. It's why JD Vance's riff that Christianity
has this understanding of this intense partiality of favor,
right?
It's our family and our neighbors and our community
and like out and out and out and out,
till you have basically no responsibility to the world.
And as an American leader,
but also just as an American citizen,
your compassion belongs first to your
fellow citizens. It doesn't mean you hate people from outside of your own borders, but there's this
old school, and I think it's a very Christian concept by the way, that you love your family,
and then you love your neighbor, and then you love your community, and then you love your fellow
citizens in your own country, and then after that, you can focus and prioritize
the rest of the world.
It's fine for that to be your politics,
but to pretend that's your religion.
Well, and he was corrected by the pope.
Yes, and then, yes, well, the pope
has to come in personally in his frail health
before he ended up in the hospital for double pneumonia
to say, no, wait, you just converted to Catholicism
and as the head Catholic, let me tell you that's not how we think about it.
You know, a more humble person might have rethought some things.
You've talked a lot about what it took to build the international system that we can
now take for granted or that we got to the point where we felt we could take it for granted.
And I think about when I read a lot of history, what it took to get to the point that we actually
thought lives of individual people around the world had some value, that they weren't
just pawns, that their destruction was meaningful.
Because I look at a lot of history and I don't think people put a very heavy value on life.
You know, if you had to wipe a bunch of people out to get what you wanted, you did.
The poor suffered what they must.
And with Trump, I see a return to that moral framework among other things.
And you can make a lot of criticisms of Democrats, of Republicans, of George W. Bush, of Joe Biden, right?
Look at the destruction visited upon the Gazans in the past year.
But there was at least some framework that existed that you could yell, hypocrite.
How dare you?
Look at what you said before and what you're allowing now.
And I think part of their foreign policy is the destruction of that framework entirely,
where there's nothing you could say hypocrite of.
They've been perfectly clear they don't care.
I mean, that way it's very unchristian.
It's very,
very great powers of the 19th century. And if you're not somebody who's big enough to
be written about in the history books, there's just not value to what you represent. Like,
you can just be used as a pawn or taken off the board if you just happen to be in the
way.
Yeah. You know, if you think about the mood now is this macho realism.
You know, Trump is about doing deals.
We don't worry about all these values.
You know, we're just going to do what's best for America.
We're going to use our surplus power.
All of that evokes this kind of 19th century realpolitik.
And what people forget about that world was it was a world of constant war, massive human rights abuses. The way that
the rich countries thought about poor countries then was let's colonize them, let's exploit them,
let's enslave their people. There's something weird about forgetting what that world entailed
and forgetting how important it was that we had this revolution in international affairs over the last century, where we've
moved to a completely different place.
And to my mind, one of the sad ironies about all this is that the country that did more
than any other country to effect that revolution, beginning with Woodrow Wilson, is the one
now undermining it.
If you had told me who's going to undermine the open international system,
the liberal international order, 10 or 15 years ago,
without a set of it's going to be the rise of China,
or it's going to be the rogue actions of Russia,
or it's going to be the Iranians.
No, it turns out to be the United States of America
that turns its back on its own creation.
I think that's the place to end.
So as our final question then,
what are three books you'd recommend to the audience?
So I was thinking about it and one of them,
I think would be Robert Kagan's book,
The Jungle Grows Back, which is a short book
that tries to explain the nature of this world
that America built and how its erosion and decay
will result in the jungle growing back, the
jungle of real politics, war, poverty, and all the things that existed before. The
second would be if you want to get a feel for 19th, 18th century diplomacy and
you know its ups and downs. Henry Kissinger wrote a wonderful kind of
history called diplomacy and it begins
in the 17th century and it goes all the way to the 1970s, 80s as I recall and
it's just called diplomacy. And the third would be again thinking about this world
America built. If you want a kind of a wonderful biographical lens into it,
Walter Isaacson and Evan Thomas wrote a book
called The Wise Men.
And it was a story of six people who were instrumental
in building the post-World War II American order.
So for all those of you who are fans of Walter Isaacson,
this was actually his very first biography.
He wrote it with one of his closest friends, Evan Thomas. They were both editors at the time. It's a wonderful read. My review of that book for
an obscure publication called The American Scholar is my first published piece in the
world, so I have a particular affection for it.
Fried Sikaria. Thank you very much.
Good to be here, Ezra.
This episode of the Ezra Concho is produced by Lai Sisquiff, fact-checking by Michelle Harris with Mary March Locker and Kate Sinclair, mixing by Isaac Jones with Aman Sahota.
Our supervising editor is Claire Gordon.
The show's production team also includes Roland Hu, Kristin Lin and Jack McCordick.
We have original music by Pat McCusker, audience strategy by Christina Samieluski and Shannon
Busta.
The executive producer of New York Times opinion audio is Annie Rose Strasser.