The Florida Roundup - Coastal migration, DeSantis returns to Florida full-time and a legislative briefing

Episode Date: January 26, 2024

This week on The Florida Roundup, we spoke with the director of the Congressional Budget Office about how the country’s population is expected to get older (09:01). Then, we talked with FSU researchers about Florida’s rapidly aging coastal communities (15:36). Plus, we spoke with a Politico reporter Gary Fineout and UCF political science professor Aubrey Jewett about how Gov. DeSantis’ move away from the presidential race will impact state politics (27:22). We also spoke with former state senator Jeff Brandes about how the governor’s return impacts Florida’s Republican Party (34:31). Then, later, a briefing on recent legislative news (37:15).

This is the Florida Roundup. I'm Tom Hudson. Thanks for being along with us this week. Florida has grown every year for over at least a half century. Through hurricanes, housing crashes, plenty of humidity, the story of our sunshine state can be told by its ever-expanding population. Since the end of World War II, more people have called Florida home each year. The draw of sunshine, sand, no state income tax, it's undeniable. Think of it this way. For every one Floridian in 1946, Welcome to Florida!

today there are now nine of us. Welcome to Florida! And in the next two decades, that will grow to 11. Welcome to Florida! So what had been a small state with only about two and a half million people in the middle of last century, Welcome to Florida! will grow by 11-fold by the middle of this century. Welcome to Florida! Florida already is the third largest state in the union, so this kind of growth requires lots and lots and lots of people to join those of us already here. Now, we are older than average and getting older. It reflects our reputation as a place to spend one's golden years.

This week, WalletHub named Florida as the best state to retire. It cited the usual items, no estate tax, no inheritance tax, no state income tax. It also mentioned lower costs for adult daytime health services, the variety of volunteer opportunities across the state, and of course, golf courses. Now, for some reason, it didn't mention pickleball. Well, the survey did admit that the overall cost of living here in Florida is, in the survey's own words, quote, pretty high. Yeah, the story of Florida is the story of a growing population. Increasingly, that population is getting older and more vulnerable to a host of challenges

from finding health care to home insurance to hurricane risks is florida still a place to grow old did you move here in the past few years regardless of your age and why and why do you live where you live in florida join our conversation we want to hear from you now 305-995-1800 our now. 305-995-1800. Our phone number 305-995-1800. You can also get in touch with us via our email inbox. That address is radio at thefloridaroundup.org. Radio at thefloridaroundup.org. Now later on in this program, we'll be talking about how the threat of rising seas may change who lives along the coast and how those coastal communities may be affected by their changing populations. Call us now 305-995-1800. If it were not for people moving to Florida from 49 other states and from other countries, the state's population would essentially

be flat over the past year or so. Migration is feeding Florida's growth. The same is forecast to be the case for the entire country within the next two decades. That prediction comes from a new report on population from the Congressional Budget Office. We spoke with the CBO Director, Phil Swagle. Phil, thanks for your time today and for joining our program. So your office, the Congressional Budget Office, projects the national population growth is going to be slowing over the next many years.

What contributes to slower population growth in the future? The US is an aging society. That is part and parcel of the slowing population growth in the future? The U.S. is an aging society. That is part and parcel of the slowing population growth. The number of older people in the population is growing. The number of births is declining. The fertility rate in the United States is declining. Now, part of that is that teenagers are having short babies. And so from a societal point of view, there's probably a lot of good things in there, but it does mean that there's an effect on the population. We're seeing and have seen for a number of years, the teenage fertility rate go down, but also in young adults in their early 20s, where we're seeing the fertility rates of

women in their later 20s, 30s actually increase. That's right. And there's a delayed age of having the first child. And we've seen this now over, well, it's about 17 years. So since 2007, which was the peak of the fertility rate in the United States, just above replacement. So just over 2.1 children per woman, it's gone down now. And so the first financial crisis, and then the pandemic, both of those led to a decline in the fertility rate. That replacement rate, meaning births balancing off against deaths. So immigration plays a key role. What role is it expected to play over the next generation? Over the next several decades,

immigration becomes an increasingly important part of U.S. population growth. It's already a key part of the increased population and the larger labor force in the United States. By 2040, our projections have immigration providing all of the net population growth. So by 2040, in less than two decades, births in the United States will be balanced with deaths. So if it weren't for immigration, there would be no population growth you're expecting. That's right. Absent immigration, be no population growth you're expecting. That's right. Absent immigration, the population of the United States after 2040 would start to decline. And that's a phenomenon that we're seeing in other countries, in Japan and in China, those countries don't have immigration and their population growth

is slowing and going in reverse. And now their populations are declining. So Phil, when you're talking about that kind of immigration, are you talking about legal documented immigration in the United States? The CBO projections on immigration encompass all immigration. We do break it down into the major categories of lawful immigration, what one might think of as temporary immigrants, say people here as students, and then other immigration. That includes people who basically come into the country without being contacted by a US official, and then people who come into the country on parole, which is lawful under authority given to the president. So there is a lot of political debate around immigration. How does

your independent agency, your nonpartisan agency, take immigration policy into consideration when making these projections? The role of the Congressional Budget Office is to provide budgetary and economic analysis to the Congress. We don't tell them what to do. We don't tell the Congress what the right policy is. We just provide analysis. And the increase in immigration that we've seen since 2022 affects the economy, it affects the labor force, it affects the job market, and therefore it affects the budget. And so as you're projecting out, how does the CBO try to figure in an immigration policy, which could be, frankly, a moving target with politics today and going forward? No, that's right.

I'm talking to you from the Ford House office building, which is at the foot of Capitol Hill, a few blocks away. I'm talking to you from the Ford House office building, which is at the foot of Capitol Hill. A few blocks away, policymakers are discussing immigration policy. When policy is decided, we will analyze it. We will provide information on the budgetary consequences. In the meantime, our analysis is about immigration under current law, what we expect. immigration under current law, what we expect. Our analysis this year differs considerably from last year, that we see the surge of immigration that I think is in the news that everyone knows about. We have analyzed information from DHS, the Department of Homeland Security, and from

the Census Bureau, and tried to parse out these different sources of information, how many immigrants are in the United States and what does it mean for the economy and the budget? Phil, America is getting older. People 65 and older will be one of the fastest growing age groups. What are some of the implications of that trend, especially for areas that already have a population that's older than the national average? It's an issue that affects our society and affects the economy and affects the budget. And so it just affects so many facets of American life and society. I'm going to focus on economic

and budgetary issues. We're an aging society and immigrants tend to be younger. They tend to be prime age adults and they tend to work. There's very high labor force participation among immigrants. Now, of course, there's immigrants with families, with young children, with older immigrants. So there's a wide range, but the increase in immigrants means a larger labor force and a larger economy, more wages, more income, and therefore more tax revenue. And that's going to be reflected in the budgetary projections from the CBO that we'll put out in February. We'll have a higher GDP and somewhat more revenue because of the surge in immigration. And then what are some of those economic implications of an overall population that is growing older and moving that average age up? But in addition, really seeing the age group of 65 and older becoming a larger proportion of the population. There's implications of the aging population in many ways. I'll give

a couple of examples, say for social security. The aging population means that there are fewer workers to support the benefits going to retirees, the Social Security benefits that so many Americans receive and depend on. More immigrants means a larger labor force means more people paying into the system to support the benefits that are going out. That is one fiscal impact. Now the people paying in eventually will get benefits of their own. So immigration is not a solution for social security, but it contributes to the improved solvency of the social security system. Phil Swaggle, the director of the Congressional Budget Office with us from his actual office in Washington. Phil, much regards.

Tom, thanks so much for having me. It's been a pleasure. 305-995-1800 or radio at thefloridaroundup.org. Amanda has been listening and sent us this note to the email. I moved to the Ocala area seven years ago because of the opportunities for people involved in equestrian industries. Amanda writes, over the last three years since the opening of the World Equestrian Center, we have seen an absolutely massive boom in growth in this area. The size of this town, compared to only seven years ago, is just mind-blowing. 305-995-1800. Rebecca has been listening in from Tallahassee. Rebecca, thanks for calling. You're on the radio. Hi, thanks for having me. I just wanted to throw out some perspectives coming from a millennial point of view.

I know the millennials are the biggest portion of the workforce right now. I do think our opinions are valid when it comes to talking about the economy, but also what we get to live with the next 50 years as climate change worsens and as our children also have to deal with the effects from the generations above us, my generation and on. And so my sister and I moved here to Florida just a year ago, mostly for education purposes and the warmth, of course, the sunshine stays. And it is because of the human population that we have chosen to probably leave when we graduate, because we are seeing the negative impacts that the population is having on the environment,

on the natural world, the animals of the wild, such as the bears and the possums, and also the debris crisis that comes along with people. And so while it is scary for economists and people to think only economically about a declining population in Florida, I want to throw out there that that embraces a smaller population that preserves the natural world. Yeah, posits some interesting ideas there, Rebecca. So if you are leaving Florida because of your concerns about overpopulation and the impact that humans have on the environment, where are you anticipating to move to? I'm anticipating to move back west. I come from the northwest Montana, but I do want to stay in the warmer climate, so I'm going to probably be looking at Arizona. I know the population is smaller, and it meets all my

other personal needs, but I don't think I will have to worry as much about the impact that people have on the environment. Interesting. Staying in the Sun Belt, but it's a dry heat out there in Arizona. Rebecca, thanks for listening and calling from Tallahassee. Let's hear from Brittany in Bostwick, Florida. Brittany, thanks for listening. You're on the radio. Hi, thanks for having me. And I absolutely agree with the last caller, that her idea to leave because of overpopulation. That's my particular side.

I'm a sixth generation Floridian. We've been here since the 1900s and primarily Sarasota. But I find myself in Bostwick outside of Palatka strictly for trying to find somewhere kind of income based that we could live. We were kind of slowly pushed out of Clay County, and then before that, St. John's County, because of the growing and massive older population that come in. And myself, also being a millennial, I've got kids and trying to find affordable housing these days,

especially in this area outside of the greater Jacksonville side. It's extremely expensive, but you have these older generations that come down there flush with cash from pensions and retirements and, you know, they can come in and just buy a house with cash and, you know, a lot of the younger generations get overlooked and the people that service them, the waiters and waitresses and cooks and the people that, you know, clean hotels and do all those things, you know, where are those people going to be able to live one day? They have to get further and further away. I know this is a huge issue, like with Key West.

and all of Florida with our wetlands and Everglades in the South Florida and some of the tributaries, certainly in your area, Brittany, kind of constrained where development can happen. But interesting story there from Bostwick, a sixth-generation Floridian, chasing affordability around the state and moving around. Let's continue to talk about this with Matthew Hauer, Associate Professor of Sociology and the Director of the Center for Demography and Population Health at Florida State University. Matt, thanks for your time. What are you hearing there? You've heard some climate concerns, some environmental concerns, some sociological

affordability concerns there in a couple of callers and emailers. Yeah, I was hearing a lot of different concerns. And then how does that, do you think, intersect with some of the study that you have undertaken regarding where and the makeup of Florida's future population and where they plan on living? Yeah, we were looking at sea level rise across the entire United States and not just in Florida and thinking about sort of what are the demographic implications if people's houses, you know, they can't live there anymore because of rising water levels, where those people essentially are going to go and what it means for population growth in both their origins, where they sort of were living before, as well as their destinations.

origins where they sort of were living before as well as their destinations. And you found, for instance, in Florida, you found that Miami-Dade County's population is anticipated to lose about a third by the end of this century. Pascoe, Hillsborough, St. John's counties also are predicted to see lots of people leave. Who do you think could be left? Yeah. So very interestingly, most people who migrate tend to be young adults, working age adults, people moving for job opportunities, to start families, for educational reasons. There is a retiree population that will migrate as well in their 50s and older. But in general, the most migration is young adults.

So when we think about something like rising water levels, rising sea levels, and the populations that are most likely to move are younger adults. And the people who are most likely to remain in areas that are environmentally maybe not as good as they could be, those people tend to be older adults as well. So in Miami-Dade, in Tampa, and so on, we're seeing increasing population aging because of rising water levels. You are there with one of your researchers, Sunshine Jacobs, is a doctoral student in the Department of Sociology at Florida State University. Sunshine, what are some of the

implications of the older folks staying along the coastlines as the expectation is younger adults move more inland? Well, as younger people move in and the populations at the coast get younger, there'll be less working-age people at the coast. And so there are possible implications that there might be less of their taxes will be able to go to support the needs of the community in general. So a lot of the tax base may move away from the coastal populations and go more inland, but the older populations will stay at the coast. Sunshine and Matt, stick with us. We want to continue to talk about the impact of climate change on where Floridians live and some of the impact on population makeup in the Sunshine State.

We'll squeeze in as many phone calls as well as we continue here on the Florida Roundup. You're listening to it from your Florida Public Radio station. We're back here on the Florida Roundup. I'm Tom Hudson. Thanks for being along with us this week. We're talking about Florida's seemingly endless population growth. The magnetism of the Sunshine State has known bounds from hurricanes to heat, humidity, political crises, immigration overseas. Florida is a story of continued population growth. And a new study from Florida State University looks at the continued

population growth and where Floridians could be moving, particularly younger Floridians, leaving older residents along the most vulnerable coastlines. 305-995-1800, our phone number. Wendy has been listening in from the coastline. Wendy just hung up. Let's continue with the authors of this study. Matt Hauer is with Florida State University and his doctoral student, Sunshine Jacobs. So as you folks spoke to Floridians, looked at Floridians, built these models, Sunshine, the climate migrants, give us some idea about where in Florida they could be looking in the decades ahead as Florida's population growth is likely to continue. Well, a lot of the most people, when they move, they don't move too far. in the decades ahead as Florida's population growth is likely to continue? Well, most people, when they move, they don't move too far.

So most of them will actually just move a little farther away from the coast, more inland. So a lot of the areas that are now maybe a bit more rural will likely see more people move there. I was thinking about your previous person you commented, Amy, said that Ocala was really growing and there will be more people moving away as the cities on the coast decline. And also because more people are going there, she mentioned things were booming. As the people who move there are younger, they'll bring their families with them and their future families, so children they may have. So they will bring a need for more housing, more construction, more construction workers, more service industries, more of those waiters she was referring to will need to be there. So those cities will probably see more growth, not just from people moving there, but from people moving there and the needs they

bring with them. Meantime, Matt, you have those coastline communities that you spoke about just before our break left with faster aging residents left. And you warn in your study about maladaptation for areas along the coast that are vulnerable to sea level rise. Lots of local communities have been paying a lot of attention to adapting to sea level rise and pouring tens, if not hundreds of millions of dollars into infrastructure projects. What do you mean by maladaptation for some of these areas? Yeah, I mean, one of the most common suggestions that people make for adapting to sea level rise in coastal communities is to raise the elevation of a home right so that way water can kind of just flow right underneath it but when

you're elevating a home adding elevation to it you're also adding steps to it to either access the home or or or whatnot and for an an area that is aging on top of that, to add additional steps to it would be, I think, a pretty good example of a maladaptation. Well, go, pun intended, one step further. Explain, you know, how do communities then approach that? What should they be thinking about? Yeah, I mean, there's a lot of different activities that threatened communities can undertake. They can undertake protection measures where they're building seawalls or revetments. They can employ flood-proofing measures. It's another option they can do. They can raise roadways, again, elevating homes. And of course, they can also partake in

buyouts. So essentially allowing people to relocate or encouraging some form of relocation as well. Those are generally the primary adaptation measures that people can take in coastal areas. Relocation is a much more diplomatic word than retreat. Some folks talk about that and think about that as retreating from those waterway coastlines. Let's hear from Sean listening in from Greenwood. Sean, thanks for your time. You're on the radio. Oh, thank you, Tom.

It's actually Greenville. Oh, Greenville. East of Tallahassee, yeah. Terrific. And my question is of the whole coastal rising. I live on some property, my family land, born and raised in Florida. And, you know, we already have in the area here, we're around a bunch of wetlands, protected swamp areas.

And with this coastal rising, what does that mean for those of us who live in North Florida? I'm trying to develop my land. I'm in my early 50s. And the influx of population coming in, that's like completely raised up the prices for me trying to put some kind of dwelling on my grandparents' property that we've had for hundreds of years. So how is this, the coastal rise going to affect us and the population? It's making it difficult for those of us who have been born and raised here and just trying to make a living. Yeah, indeed. Matt, what do you say to Sean in Greenville? Yeah. So, again, most migration tends to be relatively short distance.

And we also tend to follow our own social networks, our family, our friends and so on. It's the most likely pathways that people take when they move. They move closer to family and friends and they move to economically booming areas and they also tend to move relatively short distances. So places, rural places around, you know, sort of nearby-ish coastal communities that are growing are probably also going to see spillover growth into their communities as well. There's a lot of people that are going to probably be on the move this century. In our study, we were looking at somewhere around a million and a half people that would be moving by the end of the century, translating into about

15 million other people kind of moving around, again, sort of responding as moving as construction workers or doctors or lawyers and so on. And so some of that growth will probably end up in Greenville. Will all of the growth end up in Greenville? I mean, probably not, but there will probably be some spillover effect. Yeah, it puts more demands on those local zoning rules and development ordinances that communities perhaps haven't necessarily thought about long term. Matt, I have to have the chance to ask you about a separate issue as you are a sociology professor at Florida State University. As I'm sure you're well aware, this week, the University Board of Governors voted to

eliminate sociology from the list of required courses to graduate from a public university. What's your response? Yeah, well, so I'm definitely disappointed, very disappointed. I'm concerned as well. I would be lying if I said I wasn't concerned about these kind of decisions. I'm also kind of saddened. You know, sociology is a fantastic discipline that offers a lot of things to our students to help them become better engaged citizens, more rounded, better rounded people. And it's very disappointing that something that can help, like sociology, that can help students understand their world is being removed from the general science curriculum. The MCAT has questions related to intro to sociology. So these are real-world material challenges for our students, and I'm

very disappointed by it. Matthew, I appreciate your comments there. Matthew Hauer, the associate professor of sociology at Florida State University and his doctoral student, Sunshine Jacobs. Matthew and Sunshine, thanks for sharing your study with us here on the Florida Rondo. Much appreciated. Thanks for having us. Thanks. Now, this week we heard a concession. If there was anything I could do to produce a favorable outcome, more campaign stops, more interviews, I would do it.

But I can't ask our supporters to volunteer their time and donate their resources if we don't have a clear path to victory. That's Governor Ron DeSantis in a video posted Sunday to social media announcing he was quitting the 2024 presidential race. He endorsed former President Donald Trump. With the governor's attention now turned back here full time to the Sunshine State, many are wondering what to expect. Three weeks into Florida's legislative session is where we're at now. The governor really has yet to demonstrate the same level of influence as he has in previous years. I sensed from opening remarks in both chambers and conversations that we've had that there will be a more independent legislature this year, the way it was designed to be an equal

member of the government. And I just don't think that he has the power. That's Senator Tina Polsky of Boca Raton Democrat. But one of her colleagues on the other side of the aisle offered some caution. Spring Hill Republican Senator Blaise Ngoglia speaking with Action News Jax. I know that there have been some Democrats sort of wishing for the governor's demise presidentially. And now he's back in town. And all I can say to that is be careful what you wish for. Gary Fineout has been watching, reporting all of this from Tallahassee with Politico. He's at our partner station, WFSU. Gary, welcome back. Why do you think there's all this palace intrigue about

which DeSantis returns full time to governor? Well, I think the plain fact is that, you know, the legislature and people who are Republicans in Florida went out of their way to do a lot of things to try to enhance his run. They kind of went along with him on his agenda last year. And I think the question is, now that that's no longer in play, what exactly is the path going forward? And, you know, I hate to – I mean, this shouldn't be a surprise to people. You know, politics is a relationship game. Yeah. And it matters as to what that person can do to you,

how they can affect your political career, how can they affect your aspirations and your goals. And so the mind, the mood of the governor could have an impact on what other people want to do. I mean, I think we shouldn't forget that back in 2022, he played a very pivotal role in races around the state, in school board races, school board races, and things of that nature. So the question is, how involved is he going to be in races that are coming up this year?

Yeah. And what's he going to do to help or hinder potentially people's, in the legislature, their agenda and what they want to achieve and what they want to accomplish and which they may themselves be using for their next job in politics. Let me pose a version of that question to Aubrey Jewett, who's with us. Aubrey is associate professor of political science at the University of Central Florida, is with us on Zoom. Aubrey, how about this? What are the political calculations do you think the governor is making about his relative level of involvement that Gary is referring to? Professor Jewett, are you with us on Zoom? I am. Go ahead. What do you think those political calculations are? Well, I think that the governor is thinking about his political future is certainly one of the main things.

You know, obviously, he stumbled in the presidential race compared to where he was a year ago, when it looked like he might take down Trump or at least be much closer than he ended up being. And now that he's not and he's dropped out of the race, he's as people have pointed out, he's relatively young. And so he's probably looking, as people have pointed out, he's relatively young. And so he's probably looking to 2028, thinking, well, one way or the other, Trump will be elected or not. But then he can't get reelected. So it's going to be an open field. And I have as good a chance as any other Republican.

I think that was one of the reasons why he dropped out relatively early, not just because he didn't see a path forward, but because he didn't want Trump and the Trump supporters to hold it against him in the long run. Yeah, well, he built his presidential campaign off of his response here in Florida to COVID and social policies, and that obviously failed to catch fire. So what are the lessons, if any, that he draws from for those political ambitions as he looks at the next two years still in office? Well, and that's a great question. Not sure what he's going to draw from it. On the one hand, maybe he goes back and acts a little bit more like he did in his very first year in office when he

was certainly conservative, but he was a bit more bipartisan and not pushing such controversial social issues. And he figures, OK, that didn't work. I tried to go to the right of Trump and it didn't work. On the other hand, you know, when he was asked if there was one thing that could be done differently in this campaign, the main thing he said was, well, if Trump hadn't been, I wish Trump hadn't been indicted, you know, because that's what really sunk me. And so that's his lesson that he just feels like, okay, there was nothing I could do because Trump was in the race. You know, then he might come back and double down, not just on economic issues, but also on those social issues and just keep the pedal to the metal.

So how about that, Gary? Because that then relies on the relationships. Back to your observation, right, that politics is relationships, his relationships with the political, particularly the Republican leaders in the Florida legislature. Well, right. And I think what we're seeing initially is, I mean, he kind of said some things today, just a short while ago, in which he expressed he said he wanted to work with House Speaker Renner on his social media bill, but at the same time, he said he had concerns about the breadth of the bill and whether or not it was going to be legally challenged. And he said he wants to, quote, help evolve the bill. So that's right there, him sort of inserting himself and saying, look, I'm not 100 percent sold with what you want to do. You know, the whole thing is heading into this session was kind of unusual from what we've had the last few years in that he was focused so much on the presidential race that he didn't really

give a robust agenda that he wanted the legislature to do. More of the same is what he asked for. Yeah, more of the same. Right. Yeah. And so, you know, I just, I think the professor is correct. You know, a lot of it has to do with what's going to happen at 28, although I would have to, I would have to caution anyone that's like a, you know, an eternity, eternity in political cycles in terms of what could happen between now and then.

And then, of course, what I think more immediate concern, what does he do to help Republicans in 24? Does he get involved in the governor's race in 26 one way or the other? Does he support somebody? I mean, there's a lot of anticipation that maybe Trump one way or the other might support somebody in the 26 race. So a lot of a lot of a lot of things in motion in terms of, yourey Jewett, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Central Florida. Thanks, fellas. Appreciate it. You are listening to the Florida Roundup from your Florida Public radio station. Jeff Brandes is with us now, former Republican state senator representing Pinellas County. He's with us from our partner station WUSF in Tampa. Former senator, welcome to the program. Thanks for your patience. If you were advising Governor DeSantis now, how would you suggest he approach his office in his remaining two years? Well, I think you're going to see him coming off this high of running for president of the United

States and being on the campaign trail. And frankly, he's really done that since he got in office. I mean, he has been one of the most active governors I've seen as he's traveled the state of Florida and kind of constantly being on this campaign path. I don't think you're going to see that change. I think that same energy is going to continue. But what about the issues that he's been paying attention to, right? He's been criticized. Your party's criticized for lack of full attention to the home insurance situation, although he did support your call for a special session regarding home insurance.

Housing affordability, obviously a big issue. Transportation, an issue that you're also calling for. But do you think, did he pivot some of the issues that he's really leveraging his popularity with? Absolutely. He's going to have to, right? He's going to have to kind of recalibrate the issues he's been working on. He's been working on national immigration issues and the budget deficit and all the other kind of issues at the national level. And now you've got to recalibrate to the state level issues, which are housing affordability, property insurance, kind of some of those major challenges, the prison system that needs $22 billion of investment over the next

decade. So those types of things are the things he's going to have to recalibrate himself to. But I think he's absolutely proven himself up to the challenge. And he understands these issues. I mean, he's been governor now for five years. And so he understands those issues. He's got a great team around him. I don't see anybody kind of making the jump off of his team until after this legislative session. And so I think you're going to see him continuing that energy that he's brought into the last few years. And still garnering support among Florida Republicans across the board like he did? Where else are they going to go, right? Like, ultimately, he's going to have that support. Well, the chitter-chatter about 26 is already underway.

Are you in that conversation, former senator? For what? For governor. No, I'm not in the conversation for governor. I think you're going to see every cabinet member governor. I think you're going to see every cabinet member run. I think you're going to see Matt Gaetz run. I think there's conversation about Byron Donalds. I don't think he ultimately runs, but I think he takes a place in the Trump administration if Trump was ultimately elected. I think the governor's race is going to be really

fascinating because I think there's going to be a very crowded field this next cycle for governor. Former state senator Jeff Brandes, thank you for your time and your patience. Great to talk to you. I hope to have you back soon. My pleasure. You are listening to The Florida Roundup from your Florida Public Radio station. More to come.

Stick around. This is The Florida Roundup. I'm Tom Hudson. Let's get you updated on some work that lawmakers have been doing in Tallahassee, starting with social media. If your child or grandchild has an Instagram or TikTok or Facebook account and they are younger than 16 years old, well, that would not be allowed under a bill that's making its way through the legislature.

One day after the House this week overwhelmingly passed the bill, Senate President Kathleen Pasadena on Thursday backed the proposal that seeks to prevent children under 16 from having social media accounts. We're going to take up the bill. I don't know if members are going to suggest proposed changes. If they do, I'm certainly going to discuss it with the speaker. It's his initiative and I support it fully. Now, the bill would prevent minors under 16 from creating social media accounts and would require those social media platforms to end existing accounts that are reasonably known by the platforms to be held by children younger than 16. Now parents, you could also ask the social media sites to cancel your kid's account. State Representative Tyler Saroy from Brevard County is the House bill sponsor. These companies' business model is

exploitation of behavioral tendencies. Put differently, they're just taking advantage of kids growing up. That's their business model. The bill would require platforms to use independent organizations to conduct age verifications when new accounts are created. It would also require denial of accounts for people who do not verify their ages. Now, supporters say social media harms children's mental health and can be used by sexual predators to communicate with kids. Opponents argue the bill is unconstitutional and that parents should decide whether children can use social media or not. There are some big companies lined up against this effort.

Meta is the company that owns Facebook and Instagram, for instance. Industry groups like NetChoice and the Computer and Communications Industry Association, they all have publicly criticized this legislation, arguing it violates First Amendment rights. It would become tougher for your city or county to raise their portion of property taxes under a proposal that started moving this week in Tallahassee. This bill would require two-thirds votes by city, county, or special district governing boards to approve increases in millage rates. Those rates set the property tax rate in your community. Now, right now, most local boards need just simple majority votes to approve property tax increases. Supporters of this higher threshold proposal say they want to keep taxes low.

Republican State Representative Sam Garrison is the bill's sponsor. He represents an area southwest of Jacksonville. This bill is designed to protect the interests of the working men and women of this state who oftentimes are working paycheck to paycheck. Their mortgage is high. They're worried about how they're going to get through the challenges that exist. But Orlando Democrat Representative Ana Escamani says the bill takes away powers from locally elected officials. It does hit a point of, you know, when is too much too much? And we're just like

tightening and tightening our grip over local governments where their ability to do anything is severely limited. While we're talking about your local elected officials, they could be kicked out of office if they try to remove historical monuments, including those of Confederate Civil War figures. Tristan Wood reports now from our partner station WFSU in Tallahassee. Just last month, Jacksonville's mayor removed a Confederate monument that was constructed during segregation. But it would have to go back up under this bill. Jacksonville Democratic Senator Tracy Davis believes such monuments are meant as a symbol of white supremacy. These were meant to degrade black people, black residents all through Duval County,

and to show them in bronze and iron that they were lesser. Dozens of Confederate monuments have been removed within the last decade in response to racially motivated mass shootings and police-involved killings. But there's been a growing backlash to the monument's removal from people like Jacksonville Nated Sieber Newsom III, who viewed them as an attack on history from a, quote, woke left mob. Historical monuments and memorials have been removed at an alarming rate. Woke left mobs go into cities and make threats.

Weak Republican and Democrats get scared and remove or destroy works of art. All people need to learn from history, not destroy it. Under the bill, local officials who vote to remove any historical monument could be sued for the cost to replace them. They could also be suspended from office by the governor. Yet, it allows local governments to request from the state that a plaque or other marker be placed next to the monument to explain more details about its historical context. Fort Myers Republican Senator Jonathan Martin says he created the bill to protect the erasure of history from the public

square, even the aspects which may be painful or uncomfortable. If there was good from that statue or the bad, but either of those are things that we can learn from as a society to make us stronger and to unite us. Martin says his bill is not about protecting Confederate monuments, but all monuments. But John Weber of the Southern Poverty Law Center Action Fund argues such monuments that honor the Confederacy ignore other truths. At their core, these monuments glorify people who decided to take up arms against the United States in a treasonous attempt to maintain white supremacy and slavery. The bill passed its first Senate committee hearing along party lines,

while a House companion has yet to move. I'm Tristan Wood. I'm Tom Hudson. You are listening to the Florida Roundup from your Florida Public Radio station. Latinos are more likely to be hospitalized or die from COVID-19. So doctors and activists hope younger, more educated voices can convince the vulnerable to get shots in Florida. Here's Tim Patchett from our partner station WLRN in Miami. This winter, the U.S. is seeing a new spike in COVID-19 cases. Doctors, as a result, are urging people to get new vaccine booster shots for the dangerous respiratory virus. Perhaps their biggest challenge is the Latino community, which has had the country's worst COVID vaccine booster rate, as low as 4%.

Adelia Hernandez of Florida City knows that all too well. It's based on the stigma. Oh no, like, why are you getting that shot? You don't need that. Oh, that's very unsafe. There's a lot of misinformation out there. Hernandez is the daughter of Mexican immigrants, and she's seen the frightening consequences of that misinformation about COVID vaccines up close. I've had family members hospitalized for months and potentially leading to death. And even to this day, it affects us.

Fortunately, none of Hernandez's relatives died. But the ordeal compelled her to advocate in the Latino community for COVID booster vaccines. She now coordinates a campaign called Bacunate, or Vaccinate Yourself, at the non-profit Mexican-American Council in Homestead. Bacunate is part of a national COVID booster effort directed by the Latino nonprofit UnidosUS in Washington, D.C. One of its core strategies is sending younger, more educated Latinos like Hernandez out to convince older, more vulnerable members of the community, who often speak only Spanish, to at least learn the facts about the vaccine, if not take it. If it's coming from us, someone that they trust. This has a huge impact and a connection.

COVID hit the community disproportionately hard. They were four times more likely than white people to be hospitalized and twice as likely to die. Doctors say one reason is that Latinos too often carry COVID risk factors. We have issues like diabetes and hypertension. Dr. Dadilia Garces is a Miami Dade College epidemiologist and works with the VacunaTay project. She says those vulnerabilities make it all the more urgent Latinos get the COVID boosters. Without the booster, we are opening our Pandora box for health. Garces concedes the social obstacles are heavy. One is the fear that getting the shots could expose Latinos to scrutiny by immigration

officials. Another is mistrust of a health system where Latinos often don't see a lot of Latinos. The people who work in the hospitals, there is more occasions and it's a language barrier. But Garcés says perhaps the most onerous problem is disinformation about vaccines in Spanish language media and social media. Just last month, conservative talk show host Marianne de la Fuente on the Actualidad radio station in Miami said falsely that there are credible medical studies showing vaccines cause autism in children. The issue of vaccines in the influence of autism. Doctors say that is a total myth.

But it's the sort of thing that pushes many Latinos into the anti-vax camp, raising their COVID risks. Federal health data suggests programs like Unidos U.S.'s y la vacuna are raising the Latino COVID booster rate. Back here in Homestead, vaccine advocates say they hope that trend continues so they can focus less on COVID and more on what the Latino community there is perhaps best known for. It's Youth Mariachi Music Conservatory. I'm Tim Padgett in Miami. And finally on the Roundup, oh what a difference a week can make. You know, much of the country was purple last weekend. Now, no, this is not a political forecast. Temperatures from the upper Midwest through the Tennessee Valley dropped to below 10 degrees last weekend. Most of the rest of the country was below freezing. Florida, at least for temperatures, was an orange state.

Well, here in the Sunshine State, we know we're the butt of national jokes, especially during an election year. We know people roll their eyes when we say, hey, we're from Florida. Even we cringe when a story begins, a Florida man. We also know how folks pine for our paradise when they see that kind of weather forecast, a glance at that continental temperature map, and we stick out like the peninsula we are, a haven of heat, a sanctuary from the shovel. Now sure, others are welcome to visit. Plenty do. Stuff that puffer jacket in your carry-on upon arrival. Get your dose of natural vitamin D. Marvel at dining outdoors in January in sandals. Plenty of us here in Florida

remember what it's like when humidity freezes and falls in big, wondrous flakes. We know how to dress in layers and how to pull the cord with a quick yank to fire up that snowblower. See? Didn't start because you didn't set the choke, did you? As Floridians, we should remember, though, we're not immune to old man winter. It snowed in many parts of Florida. A woman near Fort Lauderdale was quoted by the AP as saying, it's like the world is ending. Yeah, one week and 46 years ago, 1977, much of the sunshine state from the peninsula to the panhandle, below freezing temperatures and even snow. It was the worst freeze in Florida in 15 years. This cold weather doesn't seem to fit with the South Florida sunshine, the blue sea and sky and the palm trees.

But except for a few hardy souls, the beach was deserted. When my family and I moved from Chicago to Florida years ago, it was a January like we've been having. We left behind the cobalt and azure temperatures on that weather map for the Auburn and Scarlet. Well, eventually, I mean, it was cold in Florida when we got here. Iguanas were falling from the trees. After all, this is Florida. And that'll do it for our program this week. The Florida Roundup is produced by WLRN Public Media in Miami and WUSF Public Media in Tampa. The show is produced by Bridget O'Brien and Grayson Docter.

WLRN's Vice President of Radio and our Technical Director is Peter Meritz. Engineering help from Doug Peterson, Charles Michaels, and Jackson Hart. Richard Ives answers our phones. Our theme music is provided by Miami Jazz Guitars to Aaron Leibos at aaronleibos.com. Thanks for calling in, thanks for emailing, listening, and above all, supporting public media in your community. I'm Tom Hudson. Have a terrific weekend.