The Fumblerooski Podcast - Safety In Numbers Ep 277 The Fumblerooski Podcast

Episode Date: June 4, 2024

Will Justin Jefferson’s new contract hurt the Vikings’ in the long run? Who are the top 5 safeties in the NFL in 2024? How will the AFC East shake out this season? Adam Wright and CJ Medeiros debate these topics and more!

Justin Jefferson has just been extended four years $160 million. We begin our 2024 preview of this season with our top five player rankings and an AFC East preview. I'm Adam Wright and this is the Fumble Rooski Podcast. It may not have always showed it in the stat sheet but you can see him making throws when he needs to make the throws back-to-back games where he has three touchdowns someone's got to get that six or seven spot he's an elite wide receiver as a rookie truly a lose-lose scenario for both sides welcome to the fumble ruski podcast by Power 88 and Secret Weapon Consulting. I'm Adam Wright with CJ Medeiros.

We have a lot to talk about today. And so as I teased at the end of our last Friday episode, and we posted about this over the weekend, we began our summer series of player rankings. So all of the skill positions going through the defensive and offensive sides of the ball, we rank the top five going into the upcoming year. This is the fourth year that we have done this, and I'd say it's been pretty successful. We're going to start, as always, with safeties, And we're also going to do our third annual division previews. So what we will do is preview every single division. We'll do one a week, and we're going to start,

as always, with the AFC East. So we'll get to that later tonight, later in this episode but we're gonna start out with the breaking news here which is that justin jefferson has been extended and this is a so it was a four-year 140 million dollar deal and so he becomes the highest paid non-quarterback by annual value of all time. Wow, my mic is acting up here. Am I cutting in and out? Not on my end, no. No? Okay.

Yep. He becomes the highest paid player who is not a quarterback. And I got to say, I kind of expected a little bit more. I thought this guy would be getting some, I thought he'd be getting 40 million plus. This isn't as bad, but this is still low key, like on the lower end of quarterback money. And so CJ, you and I were talking about this over the phone right after the news.

This is not as bad as it looks, the quarterback market. It has not blown up as much as you may think, but the top tier wide receivers, like the CeeDee Lambs, the Jamar Chases, the Tyreek Hills of the world, those guys are the guys who are going to get paid through the teeth. This will be money that will bankrupt your team. However, the reason I don't see this as being that bad, the reason for that is because I think there are two different markets in the wide receiver department. So there's the Justin Jeffersons and the CeeDee Lambs who are going to get around this kind of money. CeeDee Lambs is probably going get more, and so will Jamar Chase,

because that's just the way the market works. But you also have the Jalen Waddles, the Nico Collins, the T. Higgins, the Calvin Ridleys, right? These are the guys who are on the lower tier of wide receivers, but they're still wide receiver ones. So when you look at that, $83 million for Jalen Waddell is not that bad, especially since he is a number one on another team he is. Nico Collins getting in the 70s, that's not something I saw coming as a wide receiver one.

So that's something that Debo Samuel will probably get. T. Higgins will probably get. These are all wide receivers. And Devontae Smith already got that in the 70 millions. This is something to look at because these are wide receiver ones on championship caliber teams, who can be ones on championship teams. So I think that's kind of interesting but cj what are your thoughts i like to look at this from a league-wide standpoint and i like to issue this message to the dallas cowboys and the cincinnati bangles the ball is in your court now you see jefferson was the first domino to fall.

And I'm not going to lie to you. I did expect him to get more. I thought he would get at least 150 mil total, probably breaking near that 180 mil mark. But I'm glad it's 140, at least for no one else's sake other than the Vikings. But now you know that there's a real fierce competitor in CeeDee Lamb and in Jamar Chase. And you know they're probably going to want more.

And whether or not they get it remains to be seen. But Jefferson, I believe, has set a floor for what Lamb and Chase will want. And I said it was for the three of these teams, the Vikingsings cowboys and bangles it was a race against time because the first one to get their deal done obviously sets the floor and now i would imagine lambs asking price probably just bumped up another 10 mil because lamb obviously fancies himself the best receiver in the game and chase probably thinks the same way about himself as well i'm not here to rank receivers at least not this episode and i believe but it's literally like i said just what they believe and i'll pat the vikings on the back they you know that they put their heads down they got it done you know but now you know we're gonna have to see you know what happens with jordan

addison is jjJ. McCarthy pan out? That's just something the Vikings should be glad that they got passed. But the wide receiver market, like you mentioned, it's so weird. Now, when we see these guys get paid, I think you're absolutely correct. There starts to become two tiers of wide receiver ones, like the true game breakers and then like the good ones, what we would call the low end ones. And we keep bringing up this point, and that's only because it's true. It's how many of these guys with their contracts will win a Super Bowl? I mean, look, let's face it.

Justin Jefferson is arguably the best in the game. At least that's the consensus view. But are the Vikings true Super Bowl contenders? Depends on McCarthy, but. But even as a rookie, I don't think that McCarthy is going to be that surprise, you know, Justin Herbert, C., CJ Stroud kind of deal. Not this year, but. Yeah, I would say the Bengals are at least.

But then again, they haven't paid Chase yet. Will they continue to have that status if it's just Burrow and Chase eating up like a whole fourth of their cap space as the rest of their team withers away? Same thing with Dallas. And I've mentioned before, Dallas is in a worse situation because you also have to pay Dak Prescott actual real quarterback money for an actual real quarterback. And you're going to have to pay Michael Parsons like a top three edge rusher. And none of these guys I don't think are too keen on taking a hometown discount.

So, well, these guys, like, I i mean if you prioritize cash over a ring then so be it you know to each their own it is a free country you can prefer what you want to prefer but i don't know like if you're just gonna hurt your team in the long run then you know it might be worth like trading or something because these teams now that jefferson got his deal done any leverage that you have over lamb and chase just diminished fast the clock is ticking and it i mean granted you're gonna have to pony up eventually but i would hate to be like the third team that pays these guys you know what i mean because whoever between lamb and chase gets their deal done first that final team oh they're gonna be seven layers of screwed

because you're probably gonna have to give up the most out of the three that is just my stance Yeah. Elaborating on this kind of level of two tiers of wide receiver ones financially. So Nico Collins was three years, $72 million. Devontae Smith was – I just had it up. Devontae Smith, his contract was – it was three years, $75 million. And Jalen Waddles was three years, $84 million. Lower on the years, but also lower on the money so when you look at those contracts those are wide receiver ones who can win a super bowl if they're if they are your best weapon so is t higgins, so is Debo Samuel, or I would say Brandon Ayuk at this point.

And Debo Samuel too. If you have one of those two, then they're both ones. They're not on the tier of Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, AJ Brown, Tyreek Hill, Jamar Chase. They're not on that level, but they're still wide receivers who, if they are your best guy, are going to win you a Super Bowl. So I can see a massive stalemate growing eventually after some of these deals are struck. I fully expect Jamar Chase and CeeDee Lamb to eventually get their deals. Once these players on these teams do not win a Super Bowl and the teams with the lower tier wide receiver ones are winning Super Bowls, that's going to cause teams to think twice

about giving these deals. And when you have some of these wide receiver ones come up, like Marvin Harrison Jr., or name any wide receiver who just began his career like this year, teams are going to look at that and they're going to say, well, why would we pay you if we can just find the cheaper option somewhere else and win and actually win the super bowl with them because they won't be as demanding of their money right it's true we've talked about this before how often do we see that wide receiver one win with an average quarterback you don't you don't see it and yes i so like i get the whole quarterback issue with paying with paying the quarterbacks i can see that issue because a big a big contract for a quarterback is crippling

but a smaller a smaller contract like the one they gave to dan Jones is also bad. And it's bad because these quarterbacks are – because you don't win the Super Bowl with that average level quarterback. You can't, and it's true. And it's becoming blatantly obvious that the elite quarterback is needed infinitely more than the elite wide receiver. So that tier two wide receiver can still win you a Super Bowl. that tier two wide receiver, can you still win you a Superbowl? The one who the tier two wide receiver one, that is the tier two quarterback is not winning you the Superbowl.

So that's something to consider. So that's, you know, like if I had Devante, if Devante Smith was a Patriot, he'd be their wide receiver one, and he would be a legitimate wide receiver one for Drake May. I think if he was on that team, he would be perfectly fine.

T. Higgins, if he was a Patriot, right? That's a team that – He would be fine, yeah, because he could actually be a number one. He could be a number one, and he'd be a cheaper option than Justin Jefferson. So let's look at the Vikings in their entirety. So the Vikings just overpaid on Justin Jefferson. Four years, $140 million. If you believe he's worth it, that's fine.

Cool. Hey, Adam. What I will say is that, hang on. What I will say is that if you believe that that's an okay contract, you also believe that it's okay to not win a Super Bowl. Because you're now centering your entire team around a wide receiver with a quarterback who you don't even know is going to be the guy. And if he is the guy, you're going to have to pay him too.

Between the elite quarterback and the elite wide receiver, if you choose the is the guy you're gonna have to pay him too between the elite quarterback and the elite wide receiver if you choose the wide receiver you're a moron yeah and what were you about to say and also hang on let me finish let me finish because i wasn't done on their team too i i forgot i didn't finish on their team. Justin Jefferson's not their only wide receiver. Who's a one. Jordan Madison is two and Jordan Addison. He's not as good, clearly not as good as, as Jefferson, but he'll be a cheaper option. And if you had Jordan, if you had Jordan Addison and TJ Hawkinson, it's cheaper. And you're also, you also have a better chance to build a team around you. And you're probably, you'll probably have a higher chance of winning a Superbowl if you

had just Addison and Hawkinson and then built another, the rest of the team around him. Then if you were to have Justin Jefferson on that team and also Addison is going to ask for money eventually he's, and it's going to be another T Higg And it's going to be another T. Higgins-Jamar Chase situation. Yes, T. Higgins is a number one. But they have their number one in Jefferson now. And they paid him, like it's going to be for the next four years. So why did they bring in Addison at all? Why did you spend a first-round pick on a wide receiver who isn't even

going to be your number one? He will be somewhere else, but you just threw the bag at your number one to the point where you probably aren't even going to afford the other guy who you just spent a first round pick on that you could have used on defense you see the problem here and if like also you just spent a first round pick on jj mccarthy if he ends up being the guy in four years when addison is balling out who are you paying and will you even be able to afford mccarthy You see? So I get it. Justin Jefferson is a generational talent. I always thought that he, from the moment he entered the league, I thought he was going to be the best in the game. But you still need to be financially smart about paying your players. And this could end up becoming crippling because now you have to –

Addison is going to ask for a lot of money too. Not as much because he's not as good, but he's going to ask for money, and you're going to have to give him the boot, which is a wasted first-round pick. Yeah. There's my point there. Yeah, very concise. I appreciate it.

So basically the thing with Addison right his rookie year he has 70 catches 911 yards and 10 touchdowns and that's just the groundwork you know i mean he's gonna play very well and if you are the type of guy that would say hey i would much rather have the elite wide receiver over the elite quarterback that tells me that you care more about the highlight reel and the stat sheet than you do about actually winning. So those are just those two points. And however, we do have a bit of breaking news. Just probably in this segment.

Yep. The Niners and running back Chris McCaffrey have agreed terms on a two-year $38 million extension through 2027, making him officially the NFL's top paid running back. Good for him. You know. Keep going. No.

Okay. So that's basically it as far as I go. But, yeah, I mean, for those listening at home, how many times do Adam and I have to say that the elite quarterback with a low-tier wide receiver one will win you infinitely more games and way more Super Bowls than the low tier QB one and the elite wide receiver. Because at the end of the day, the quarterback is the field general for a reason. Wins and losses are widely considered a QB stat for a reason. So if you do not have the Lamar Jacksons, the Joe Burrows, the Patrick Mahomes, if you will,

then just literally, like, why bother? Because let me tell you something. You could give Daniel Jones, Justin Jefferson, and C.D. Lamb, and the Giants would be a wild card exit. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes can win a Super Bowl with Juju Smith-Schuster. I rest my case. Yeah, and Tyree and Travis Kelsey. That's a pretty important guy. But you can clearly see which positions win and which don't. And I don't condone overpaying for your quarterbacks like through the teeth,

but you have a better chance of surviving with the big quarterback contract than the wide receivers or the running backs or, you know, the edge rushers, right? Those are the – like it's a quarterback-driven league. So, yeah, Joe Burrow got a massive extension but they probably would have been contenders if he wasn't hurt josh allen got a massive extension and they were still in they were still in the playoffs and nearly made the afc championship you know uh patrick mahomes after his deal has been to three superbowls and one uh yeah three superbowls and won two of them and has been to the afc championship every single year of those

no he went to four superbowls and won three no but that that was after i'm talking about after the contract extension oh okay okay after the extension the contract extension about after the contract extension. Oh, okay, okay, after the extension. The contract extension came after the 2019 season. Okay, yeah, you're right. So after he won his first Super Bowl. So that should rest your case right there. The Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes have survived it. They traded away Tyreek Hill. They had some of the worst-case scenarios I've ever seen with them,

and I never thought they were going to win two of the three Super Bowls they've won. And they did it with no Tyreek Hill. Their best wide receivers were Juju Smith-Schuster in 2022. And in 2023, it was Rasheed Rice. Yeah, that's true. They survived it. If they decided to pay Tyreek Hill instead, are they winning Super Bowls? Well, probably because they have Patrick Mahomes. No, I mean, at this point, I'm saying instead. So Patrick Mahomes wouldn't have been paid.

And let's say he decides to win Super Bowls. Oh, no, no, no, no, no. If you have Tyreek Hill instead of him, and you go with, let's say, Oh, no. If you have Tyree Kill instead of him and you go with, let's say, an Alex Smith-level quarterback or a Kirk Cousins... Then absolutely not. There will be no Super Bowls in Kansas City and there would be no Dynasty.

Tyree Kill is the best wide receiver in the game. One of them. Justin Jefferson could be too. Patrick Mahomes, best quarterback in the game. Since Tyree Kill has left, yes, he's put up unbelievable statistics, but what does he have to show for it? Yeah. Just a couple of playoff appearances where he got one and done. Patrick Mahomes, ever since then, two seasons, two Super Bowl victories, one league MVP, two Super Bowl MVPs.

I rest my case too, which is the same point as yours. No, you're right. Christian McCaffrey extended two years, $38 million. I feel like this reinforces the point. It makes sense. Because, and I'll tell you why. I mentioned how there's going to be a stalemate with the wide receiver market. This is the aftermath of what we're going to get eventually,

where this isn't a huge deal. It's not. Two years, $19 million per year, and that's not even with guaranteed, I believe. I don't think it is, no. So, and he's 31 years old. So, this was an issue that the running back position had, and now it's starting to level out because running backs realize they have no leverage.

Now there are better position than the wide receiver position is a better position than the running back, but you're still going to see a, there's going to be some sort of stalemate going. Teams are going to realize that paying for this generational talent through the teeth is not worth it. Teams like the dolphins are going to look at Tyreek Hill and say, well, we have Jalen Waddle. You're making us being you're, you're putting us in cap hell for years and Jalen Waddell is just as good.

And the Bengals are going to be kicking themselves for paying Jamar Chase over Tee Higgins. Because Tee Higgins, at least if they paid him, I'm not saying pay Tee Higgins over Jamar Chase, but I'm saying if you pay Jamar Chase the amount that he believes he's worth, you're not going to have money to surround the rest of your team. It's just going to be the Joe Burrow and T. Higgins and Jamar Chase show, and they're not going to have the money to protect Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow is going to get hurt again. Jamar Chase is going to continue to put up these numbers and do the gritty,

and he's going to be everyone's favorite fantasy player, but they're not going anywhere. They're not, they're the Bengals are trying to screw themselves over and they're going to end up T Higgins doesn't want to play here anymore. Jamar chase wants the bag. Tyler Boyd's already gone. And yes,

you've worked on that offensive line, but eventually Amarius Mims is going to ask for money too. And you're going to have to give him the boot and Orlando Brown brown jr is going to be a cap casualty yeah the issue there all right um let's cut to the chase here next we have our player rankings leading off with top five safeties going into the 2024 nfl season won't want to miss this. Next, this is the Fumble Rooski Podcast. It may not have always showed it in the stat sheet, but you can see him making throws when he needs to make the throws. Back-to-back games where he has three touchdowns.

Someone's got to get that six or seven spot. He's an elite wide receiver as a rookie. Truly a lose-lose scenario for both sides. Welcome back to the Fumble Rooski Podcast by Power 88 and Secret Weapon Consulting, Adam Wright. With CJ Medeiros, we have reached our fourth annual player rankings. We are going through top five safeties, so we'll each go through all five at once. CJ, take it away. Thank you, Adam. you're very generous so for me we're obviously talking about

the top five stations going from number five to number one my number five and this might shock some people but if you think about it it really shouldn't is antoine winfield oh, this man here. Last season, 122 combined tackles, six sacks, and three picks. And let me tell you something, he got the bag to show for. Also throw in 12 passes defense and six forced fumbles. Oh, this man is absolutely becoming a force to be reckoned with. And this is his truly elite elite top five season which is why i put him at five like you know just in case it's a flash in the pan because you know he's this is like his fourth year and it was a contract year you know adam and i tend to be wary of guys absolutely balling out their contract year but i don't see any reason for him to stop this man

just went absolutely ballistic now this one might shock some people my number four is minka fitzpatrick and i know what you're saying ah but cj is he not the best safety in the league you thought so last season yeah but he only played 10 games because you know he was hampered with injury throughout most of the year and you could tell he wasn't playing the same 64 tackles that's basically it one tackle for loss like no picks no forced fumbles like no nothing like it's just so don't get me wrong he's good he's obviously a top five safety which is why i have him here however you know he was kind of hurt so there's something you have to consider there and then my number three now this this was where people you know just might not be happy at

all of the chargers derwin james i don't know why but he he just he took a step back he really did and i know what you're also thinking oh but he had a career high in tackles, both solo tackles and combined. He had 125 combined tackles, and he had an 86 solo. That's good, you would say. Yeah, but he's suffering from one little thing I like to call, speaking of the Chargers, Kenneth Murray syndrome, which is where I'm seeing a lot of tackles, but not a lot else. Because, you know, he has one interception, seven passes deflected,

that's pretty good, two bubble recoveries. But that's literally it. And if you look at advanced defense, quarterbacks have a near 69 completion percentage when targeting Derwin James. And that's pretty good for quarterback. It's a very nice completion percentage. And he only has one pick while allowing two touchdowns and a 93.7 passer rating. So I know we're like, oh, Derwin James, he's so amazing. He's the big do-it-all kind of guy. But what's the point of being a do-it-all guy if you can't do it at an elite level year in, year out? That's like saying, hey, I can build airplanes and I can cook, but then not telling people you work at Boeing and Arby's.

Then moving on to my number two, we got the breakout man himself, Kyle Hamilton. Now you may remember a few drafts or two drafts ago, I was hyping this man up. I loved him. And this is why. 81 tackles, three sacks, four picks, one forced fumble, and 13 passes broken up. This man is a monster. He's the real do-it-all. He got his first ever first-team All-Pro last year and his first Pro Bowl nod as well. And just looking at the advanced defense only allows a 54 completion percentage when targeted and a 38.4 pass rating this is the real do-it-all guy and maybe i'm jumping the gun see he's only in his year and that's why he's not number one but i'm telling you, Kyle Hamilton is here to stay. But my number one is none other than Jesse Bates III of the Atlanta Falcons.

132 tackles with 89 solos. That's pretty good, you know, for his safety. Three tackles for loss, you know, that's great. But it's just the fact that this man is an absolute ball hawk. Six interceptions, one of them being a house call, 11 passes broken up, and three forced fumbles. And he played all 17 games. This man is everywhere. And he only allows a 67.1% passer rating as well. It only allowed three touchdowns with six picks. I will take that ratio. I will. And not to mention, this was his first season acclimating to a new scheme,

and he now has a new head coach, the defensive-minded Raheem Morris, where his defense should improve now that he actually knows the guys around him and he actually has a true defensive-minded head coach. The sky's the limit for Bates. That is all. It's a good list, and I think we have a lot of the same players on our lists, just in different orders, but my number five is actually Minka Fitzpatrick. Understandable. Yes, he is. So I have him in my top five out of respect for him being Minka Fitzpatrick,

and he's still relatively young. Injuries slowed him down, but I expect him to bounce back. We know what his abilities are. I'm going to have him on the lower end of the top five just because I think how much better he's going to be, that's going to depend on how healthy he is and how good the rest of the defense is, right? If Joey Porter Jr. and a couple of the other kids that they have on that team underperform, then you're overworking that one guy in Minkah Fitzpatrick. So a lot of it depends, but I think he's going to be a top five. I think he's

a safe bet to be your number five. My number four, I actually have Derwin James lower than you do at number four. And the reason I have Derwin James there is because like you said, there's no reason for it to happen, which is why like it wasn't even injuries. Yes, he's had injuries before, but this year it was just, he took a step back for no reason at all. And the upside is still there. And this could be just chalked up to a bad year. In fact, I'll bet on it being that way because he's played, we've seen enough from him to believe that he's going to be better, but I still have him lower because I just don't think you, when you have a down year

like that with no reason whatsoever, I think that's more troubling than if you, than if it's injuries. That being said, he's on, he's in a new scheme. He's with Jim Harbaugh, who is a better defensive-minded coach, and I think that's going to give him some upside there. So I have him a little higher than Fitzpatrick. Two safeties who used to be top two during last year's rankings at this time, towards the bottom. Well, bottom of our top five. They're still top five safeties.

That being said, my number three is actually Kyle Hamilton. Hamilton is great at everything except run defense. He's really good in pass rush, and he's a very good coverage safety as well. The only issue that we have is his run defense. That's kind of what has me a little worried about him. He's still a very good safety, but I feel like in order to be a... Safeties need to be Swiss Army Knives. So you need to be able to be good in every single aspect of the game. He's still a great safety and he's in my top three, but because of that hole, I have him right there. My number two, I have Jesse Bates. Now Bates had an incredible year. No two ways about it. This guy was good at everything that he did this past season. That being said, this is a ranking for this upcoming year, not last year.

And I think looking at the totality of Jesse Bates' career, has he ever been that safety who is the best in the game? No. So I think you're going to see a step back from him. I think he's one of the better safeties in the game, and he probably will be again, which is why I have him number two. But I still think, I just don't trust him to continue the production that he's had because he hasn't been what he was last year. That being said, this next corner for number one is Antoine Winfield Jr. He's 25, and the last time I, I can't remember the last time I've ever seen

a safety in the conversation for defensive player of the year. Safeties are typically like, like we said, they're Swiss army knives. The guys who they support the corners. They're not better than the corners. And Antoine Winfield Jr. could do it all. He was better than the corners on your team. And he was a big part of a defense that helped to play better than expectations this past season. They finished 9-8, but that was a really good 9-8 for them. Tom Brady leaves the team and Baker Mayfield lifts them up. Mike Evans finds his old form. Chris Godwin is still a very good wide receiver, but their defense was the unsung heroes. And Antoine Winfield Jr. was the embodiment of that. A defense that was low-key pretty good. And the fact that the

centerpiece of it, the centerpiece was Antoine Winfield Jr., a safety. I just think his production was so incredible. And he's always been one of the better safeties in the game. He really elevated his game here. And he deserves every penny of his contract that he has just gotten um i'm usually not in favor of safeties being paid but this guy is an exception i have antoine winfield jr as the number one safety going into next year understandable i just like i said i mean you know, you, you heard my reasoning. I'm not saying I disagree. I'm just usually skeptical of guys that have career years in a contract year. I'm not saying he can't do it again, but you know,

when guys get the bag after a contract year, there tends to be a fall off. I'm just looking at trends, but I like your argument though. I appreciate it. Okay. I want to look at some of our fan box responses. Patrick Wilber said Brian Branch. I like this one. He was so I think he's too early in his career for anyone to consider him to be a top five safety.

But maybe top 10. And he can definitely elevate his game even further. He was definitely the best piece of that secondary, which doesn't say much, but it says something. Cam Sutton's a pretty good corner, and I think Brian Branch was a better safety than Cam Sutton was a corner. Oh, well, yeah. Like much better.

But Brian Branch was also a first-round talent who landed in round two. He fell on the Lions' laps. It was also – so here was Ian Mulhern who said, he's a free agent but Justin Simmons easily. Simmons would be – I think he would be, he would have strong consideration for me as a top five guy. Yeah, same. There's something that bothers me about the fact that he's still a free agent.

Yeah, that's true because Simmons was a guy that I was heavily considering putting in my top five. But the reason I didn't is solely because he's not on a team. And when you have a guy who has, I know he's on the older side, but I would argue he has at least three years of like pro bowl, perhaps all pro caliber football left. So if that's the case, then that almost certainly means there is something going on that we don't know.

Is it an injury? Does he want too much money? We may never know. But my point is, when there's a guy there that long, that means nine times out of ten, where there's smoke, there's fire, and something is up. Right. If no team wants him, like this has been one of the best safeties in the game.

He's been in our top fives each of the last few years when we've done these rankings. Every year I'm pretty sure we've had him in our top fives. Yeah. But he needs to be on a team in order to – and if he – the best ability is availability. And if he's – if it's week five and we're still saying, why is Justin Simmons not on a team? He's a top five safety. He's not a top five safety this year because he's if it's week five and we're still saying why is Justin Simmons not on a team he's

a top five safety he's not a top five safety this year because he's not on a team right we don't get to say Antonio Brown was a top five wide receiver when he was out of the league for a couple years where if he was on a team maybe he would have been top five but his actions or whatever it is with Justin Simmons are what kept him out of what kept him off of a team out of the league so I think Justin Justin Simmons I'm not saying that he isn't still a top safety he could be in fact I would be more inclined to believe he still is because that's just the safety position they last much longer look at how long Devin McCourty lasted and was still a premier safety and Harrison Smith of the Vikings as well.

That man played forever. Right, because the safety position isn't as demanding as many others. Like corners, you have to be glued to the hip of whichever wide receiver you're covering. And if you slow down even a tad, you're done. It's over. Because Justin Jefferson is going to destroy you if you slow down even a little bit or your quickness goes down. You know what I mean? You need to be attached to those guys. So I think, I don't know, maybe Justin Simmons is still top five, but I'm just troubled by the

fact that this guy is still without a contract. Like, if he's one of the best in the game, then why are all 32 teams out on him? Yeah. I just – I don't know. Like I said, it's got to be something that we don't know. And if it was something like an off-field thing, I would wager that we've heard of it by now. It might be like battling an injury or something that's probably that's my guess possibly all right i want to move on we're on a bit of a time crunch afc east preview we are going to preview how that division

shakes up next this is the fumble ruski podcast it may not have always showed it in the stat sheet but you can see him making throws when he needs to make the throws. Back-to-back games where he has three touchdowns. Someone's got to get that six or seven spot. He's an elite wide receiver as a rookie. Truly a lose-lose scenario for both sides. Welcome back to the Fumbaruski Podcast. Adam Wright with CJ Medeiros. Let's try to whip through this quick. Get this through in, let's say, eight minutes. The AFC East. I think the, so CJ, you can give your input here, but I think I would probably favor the Dolphins to win this division right now. And that's not to say it won't happen, but I think this is the most open I have seen

this division in, well, like probably in 20 years. Yeah, because the Patriots own this division forever. The Buffalo Bills had their stint. But as I've mentioned before, the Buffalo buffalo bills got absolutely gutted in free agency through cap crunch and free agency departures alike right and when i look at the dolphins it's not that i think they're gonna win the super bowl in fact i don't think that i don't really believe it's a possibility because you know two is just not that guy and i've said before they're all sizzled there's but there's no stake it's all flash no substance yeah mike mcdaniel cannot out coach actually good coaches

he throws his weight around with bad teams and then does literally nothing else but they just have the most talent and the only other team that i could see making a run is the jets but they just have a lottery ticket by the name of aaron rogers. If Aaron Rodgers can be even half of what he was in his two most recent MVP campaigns, then that's good. You're chilling. You're laughing. Oh, but a 40-something-year-old man coming off a torn Achilles, playing once again on that evil MetLife field.

I do not like his odds all that much. And then there's New England. We don't really need to talk about them. They're deep in rebuilding. New coach, new quarterback. Will the rebuild work? Maybe. Maybe not.

We'll see. We'll see. I mean, unless Drake May becomes like the Justin Herbert or CJ Stroud, but that's rare. That's very rare. We'll reopen New England in like another two to three years. But Buffalo, look, as long as they have josh allen they're gonna have a chance okay let's be real but you no longer have stefan diggs you don't

even have gabe davis you do not have mitch morse and on the defense you no longer have guys like leonard floyd treedavious white micah hyde Poyer. So I just, I don't know what to make of the Bills team. It's just, I feel like they'll be decent, but I don't think they're going to win the division. But overall, much like you, I lean towards Miami. Maybe I'll give the Jets, depending on Rodgers, because the Jets have a very good roster. That defense is nasty.

But Miami's going to do that thing where they absolutely run up the score on bad teams and then underperform when they face any legit teams and then be another one and done because long story short is my final point whoever wins the afc east that's great none of them are winning the super bowl yeah i would say the the outside shot would be the Jets. They're the biggest wild card out of this division. If they turn out to be everything that we think they can be, then they'll be a contender to win the entire thing. Aaron Rodgers is an all-time great quarterback, and if he's still at that level, then they're probably going to go there. Their roster is stacked. You have Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams. That's pretty good. And you

still have Alan Lazard, who's a solid secondary option as well. You have an offensive line that has built its depth exactly like we wanted them to last offseason. And maybe if they did this last offseason, Aaron Rodgers wouldn't have been rehabbing the Achilles by now. Nah, man, turf monster going to get them regardless. It's MetLife, you know. They didn't work on that offensive line and on the third snap of the game. I'm telling you, it's not a coincidence. They didn't work on that offensive line.

This is all on them. So I think that's the biggest wild card there. And sure, I still give the Bills a chance, just out of respect for Josh Allen. But Keon Coleman, Aziz Elshig. Khalil Shakir? Khalil Shakir? Khalil Shakir. Jeez.

I mixed up two different players. Khalil Shakir. Awesome. That kid who came from the Commanders. Curtis Samuel. Curtis Samuel, yeah. They're all – the only one with wide receiver one upside that we could question is the guy is Keon Coleman. And even he is an outside shot.

So we're going to have to see there. I don't love the Bills' chances, but even with the Bills having a down year, I still think they're going to be making a push for the playoffs. I think 10-7 is a solid expectation for them because you have Josh Allen who can still win you some games. Maybe it won't be pretty, but not every season is going to be a 30-plus touchdown year. It's just not.

Peyton Manning never did that. There were some years where he threw 20, 25 touchdowns. It happens sometimes. Those were down years for him. It's going to be the same way that Josh Allen is going to have a down year. And that's okay. That happens. But I still believe he's not winning the division. I think the Dolphins were close last year and lost out to a surging Bills team who've made a last-second division push. True. I think them losing Stephon Diggs is going to hurt them more than you think.

So I'm going to take Miami. The Bills are probably going to be the most sure thing to be 10-7, and the Jets could be either first place or last. And then I'm not even going to tell – I'm not even talking about the Patriots. They don't – Yeah, they're rebuilding. They're rebuilding. They're not trying to win. They're not even going to start their star quarterback this year.

It's going to be – Yeah. It's going to end up being Jacoby Brissett at least for the first half of the year. I would go for – if I'm them, I would go for sitting him the whole year. Sitting him the whole year. Why would you put him behind that offensive line? Oh, and Adam, one more thing about the Bills, about why they won't be good. Just look at their division, right?

These are six games out of your 17-game schedule. You know Josh Allen is already turnover prone, and now he doesn't have an elite wide receiver one. And the AFC East has some really good corners. No, the jets. I mean, just look at all the corner ones,

Jalen Ramsey, sauce Gardner and Christian Gonzalez. Yeah. I don't see Buffalo when this division, I'm sorry, Bill's mafia put the tables away. Yeah. I don't see buffalo winning this division i'm sorry bills mafia put the tables away yeah i don't see him winning this division um that's all the scheduled content we have for today do you have anything else no i don't yeah so to to summarize it's got to be for me it's

going to end up being it's going to end up being the Dolphins. That doesn't mean I have them going anywhere. It's basically just a race for who gets blown out in the first round by Houston or Kansas City. It's basically what it's going to be. All right. Well, that'll do it for us tonight. Thank you for listening to us.

We have new episodes out on Tuesdays at 7.30 PM Eastern Standard Time. Be sure to subscribe to our YouTube channel. We have all our episodes available on Spotify, Spreaker, Apple Podcasts, iHeartRadio, Google Podcasts, and so much more. Also, be sure to follow our Instagram at FumbleRooski underscore podcast and our TikTok at FumbleRooski pod to keep up with our podcast and the latest coverage on the NFL. Otherwise, we'll see you next week. Over and out.