The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens - Ayan Mahamoud: "East Africa and the Poly-Crisis"

Episode Date: October 5, 2022

On this episode, Nate talks with Ayan Mahamoud, a climate and resilience planner from Djibouti. They discuss the growing challenge the poly-crisis poses for the Global South and how climate change is already creating challenges for people (and animals) in East Africa.In many ways, the discussions in our world are not only energy blind but also blind to accelerating threats to nations outside our own. What does managing and coordinating responses look like? What can we learn from communities already dealing with increasing poverty and climate impacts? About Ayan Mahamoud: Ayan Mahamoud (PhD) is the Head of the Socioeconomic, Policy, Research and Marketing Department of ICPALD. She is an expert in Regional and Transboundary Polycrisis, Climate Security and Climate Fragility and their policy dimensions for sustained coordinated action. She contributes to the IGAD Climate Security Agenda and collaborates with institutions across the IGAD Member States, Divisions, Specialised Institutions, the UN Office of the Special Envoy, UNDP, CGIAR and various independent think tanks such as Adelphi, the Clingendael Institute. She also manages the USAID Programme Portfolio at IGAD and deals with issues related to Resilience/Climate Fragility Risks/Climate Adaptation/Dryland Development, Cross-Border Health, Countering Violent Extremism, and Conflict Prevention/Early Warning. For Show Notes and Transcript visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/39-ayan-mahamoud

You're listening to The Great Simplification with Nate Higgins. That's me. On this show, we try to explore and simplify what's happening with energy, the economy, the environment, and our society. Together with scientists, experts, and leaders, this show is about understanding the bird's-eye view of how everything fits together, where we go from here and what we can do about it as a society and as individuals. Today I am pleased to introduce Ayan Mahmoud. Ayan coordinates regional programming tasks within the Initiative on Drought Resilience, which covers seven countries in the Horn of Africa. She currently manages the USAID program portfolio at the Intergovernmental Authority on

Development, working on issues related to resilience, climate adaptation, dry land development, cross-border health, countering violent extremism, and conflict prevention. But on today's episode, I talk with Ayan not in her professional capacity, but as a friend and as a citizen of Africa and of the world. We discuss the growing challenge that climate change faces for Africa and many areas in the global south and how what we call the polycrisis is already happening around the world. In many ways, the discussions in our culture are not only energy blind, but also people outside our country blind. What has managing and coordinating polycrisis responses in Africa looked like?

What can we learn from communities already dealing with poverty and climate impacts? I hope you learn and are inspired by this conversation with Ayan Mahmoud. Salam al-a-a-a-a-an. Al-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-fri, my friend. How are you? I am good. Good to see you. Good to see you in person six weeks ago or so. Yes, absolutely. It was a good bubble. That was really a good time. So for people that don't know of you and your work, could you just start this conversation by saying your name, where do you live? What do you do? And maybe, you know, how we came together to be friends.

Well, my name is Ayan Mahmoud. I live in Nairobi, Kenya, and I work. With the regional economic community, it's a rec called IGAT. And I work on regional transboundary crisis, polycrisis, and that's how we became friends. We were debating between polycrisis and collapse. That's a wonderful one of the discussion we had when we met a few weeks ago. So my hope with this conversation is to kind of take our professional hats off and just talk to each other about citizens, as citizens. of the world living in vastly different places and being alive at this time facing what we do with the economic, energy, climate, biodiversity situation.

And you're the first person I've had from Africa or the Global South generally. And I really would love to get some honest, deep perspectives from you. And I would love you to do most of the talking. So maybe before we dive into that, can you tell us what the situation is on the Horn of Africa right now and eastern Africa where you live, just broadly? Broadly. Let me start with saying that the region is currently facing its fifth-fail rainy season. And there are not many rainy season in a 12-month period, for example. There are only two short trains and long rains.

On a yearly basis, we're talking about either March, April, May or October. December, for example. And right now, as I said, we are facing, the region is facing its fifth failed redic season. The first one was announced in the midst of COVID in August 2020. And of course, because of COVID, it went, it almost went unnoticed because the community dived into their economies and resources and the small resilience program that we have been implementing since the the previous major drought of 2010 and 2011, and the adaptive capacity that they had thanks to those resilience programs. So right now, the region is facing a major drought, and desertification is a reality to which

the state must adapt with a clear indication that they will be more frequent and more intense with climate change. In fact, in Eastern Africa, in countries like Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya, which are particularly affected by a shortage of water, food and food, as I speak to you, according to the latest assessment, we're talking about more than 25 million people in acute food insecurity. And we're also talking about millions of people that have been forced to leave their homes for lack of food and over seven millions of head of cattle and livestock that have already perished.

So it's a crisis. We are in the middle of a crisis, but it's not the only one. That's what we are facing in the region. Well, we were just at a conference that the title of it was called the polycrisis because there's so many different interconnected aspects of this. For instance, what's happening in Russia and Ukraine is raising energy and fertilizer and food prices around the world. So I assume that is also having an impact on top of.

of the lack of rain that you mentioned? Absolutely, Nate. The price of commodities such as maize, sunflower, in addition to food and fertilizers, have really skyrocketed. And right now, in addition to the drought that I was just mentioning, it's a whole food crisis. And at this point, I don't think it's only East Africa,

but I think we are facing it at a global level, isn't it? We're happy to hear that the first ship of grain left Turkey. when we were in the conference together, wasn't it? Or was it prayer to that? I can't remember thanks to Turkey who negotiated that within the UN framework. So, yeah, the global crisis that is brought by the Ukraine and a Russian world definitely has a repercussion and price of commodities in Eastern Africa. So in Eastern Africa, and when I say Eastern Africa, that includes which country? Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, what else?

Sudan and South Sudan. We are eight countries that have members of the ICAT region, yes. And to my knowledge, that is roughly 400 to 500 million people live in those countries? We are talking about 270 million, I think. The last prediction, yeah, a little over, 270 million. Yeah. So roughly the size of the United States and population-wise, give or take. So how much food in that region is generally grown or produced? within the borders of those eight countries and how much is imported? It's very hard to quantify in the sense that there's an informal trade that also comes into and rarely gets captured in the food trade figures.

But for instance, in a country like Kenya, Kenya import almost half of his grain consumption. He produce, yes, but it export as much as imports from Tanzania, from Uganda, much like the milk production, for example. I mean, there's a fair share that comes from the other countries in the region. So when those who produce are not producing enough, even for their own conception, they tend to reduce the parts that get exported and shared with the other countries. And definitely the prices reflect that currently in the whole of Africa. I mean, one KG of maize, which is the staple here in Kenya,

was maize flowers going for a dollar, for example. But now it's more than... double, it's $2.5 the kg of maize flour. Don't the common person, whatever. You'd say the average Joe, he would say the average John. I can't afford it. So how do you factor this in to your climate resilience modeling for coming decades? I imagine you have models that look at how droughts and floods might impact things or maybe even higher temperatures.

it's hard to model geopolitical impacts on energy and ammonia fertilizer and food as well. But like what sort of scenarios do you talk about with your colleagues or think about with respect to the changing climate and the changing geopolitical commodity landscape in coming decades? That's a good question. I feel we remain stuck in the usual way of doing things when we're doing climate projection, for example, where we don't take into consideration some key geopolitical factors. I mean, the current situation is an example of that.

We tend to remain as strategic planning and forget that we also probably would require a little bit of foresight and develop different types of scenarios. It's gaining momentum within the region, for example, when we are developing the next phase of the planning, as in we project ourselves by 2032, for example, what would be the situation, what would be a regional situation? the global, analyze the current trends, relationship between Russia and the rest of the world, relationship between China, the US. So it's something that is slowly picking up, but there's no study or discussion paper that have been produced specifically for resilience programming.

Now, what we generally and what we commit ourselves to do is, for example, when we are planning for resilience programming within the region, we don't only look into water resources For example, we also link it with some range land development. We link it with some alternative livelihood development. We link it with income generating activities. We make sure that there's a little bit of peace, not a little bit, a lot of peace, and reducing the conflict within the community, within the region. So we're trying to be as holistic as possible.

But definitely the strategy in the program that we have developed for the past, what, 15 years, didn't take into consideration the current. Of course, that took almost everybody by surprise. So other than the drought, which you mentioned, are there other noticeable current impacts from climate change in eastern Africa that you're observing? The drought is the biggest impact of climate change. In the area where I work as in pastoral and agro-pastro area, I reduce my arid land, which are already scarce in terms of resources. But of course, definitely, we also have the other aspect of it, which is excess of water, and that's floods. Didn't you tell me that there was a problem with nighttime temperature

for animals or something like that? Extreme temperatures. Yes, definitely. You have a very good memory. Yes, the heat waves that Europe faced over the summer. Well, that was our winter season and in areas within the Horn of Africa, where, of course, we have winters. We sometimes end up with temperature below 50, not minus 50 Fahrenheit, but below 50 Fahrenheit, which will equivalent to 10 degrees Celsius, 5 to 10 degrees Celsius. And yes, of course, that is the livestock and livestock heads are also highly sensitive to extreme temperatures with a heat or cold. Yeah.

Well, that was what got us started talking in Denmark is I asked a perspective from the global north when you said, oh, yeah, the extreme temperatures are really affecting the animals and I was thinking like elephants and giraffes, but you were talking about livestock and cows. Is that modeled? Like the wet bulb temperature for humans, I know, has been modeled. But in your work, do you look at increasing temperature stress on livestock in coming decades where the nights won't get cool enough for effective respiration and rest for animals?

or is that kind of arcane and obscure? No, no, you absolutely correct. It has been modeled. The effect of the impact of climate change, generally speaking, it could be a flood extreme temperature, any extreme climate event has been modeled. And yes, definitely. It has an impact on the livestock body condition, for example,

on the livestock health, and it trickles down into the resources of the community, for example. If the cattle is weak, they don't get the expected price. You see, they sell it at a loss or something if they ever sell it. So, no, the models are there. The impact of climate change, generally speaking, on livestock has been studied. The last study, I remember was back in, I think, 2017 from some team that we're working with in the region.

So vector-borne diseases, right now we're even mapping the excessive light. We thought it was eradicated, but somehow it's re-emerging. We've had a desert locust invasion. back in 2019, just prior to COVID. So when COVID hit the region, for us, we were barely recovering from a previous drought, 2016, 2017, followed by a desert locusts, an invasion in 2019 and 2020. And then COVID hits, and then the border got closed, and then less transboundary trade, because, I mean, people in the communities, in the cross-border community,

relay more on trade across the border than anywhere else. So, yes, when I remember we have... the conversation on poli crisis versus collapse that I hope another perspective of the global south. Well, I think when people say, are we going to have collapse? When is collapse going to happen? They're really talking about when is collapse going to happen to me? Because collapse has already happened to Ukraine and to Syria and to whale populations and insects and different communities around the world. So I forgot who said this quote, but the future is already here.

It's just not evenly distributed, which is one reason I really was keen to talk to you because we so rarely think about what the impacts of the great simplification or a reduction in global GDP combined with generally warmer temperatures and extreme weather events have outside of Europe in the United States, which is where many of my listeners of this show are, we don't see on the news what's happening in Africa right now. We did see the floods in Pakistan, but I don't think anyone has much of an idea that there are 300 million people living in the countries around you that are really struggling right now before climate really gets worse. Do you have any thoughts on that? I think you actually right when you put this in perspective and when we come

to think about it. There are many different societies living, human, non-human, who have faced collapse before we met. And I think I was talking to a common friend earlier last month when I was reflecting on. We say, for us specifically in the Horn, it's a fifth failed rainy season. But as you mentioned, I didn't see any major piece in any or global north news outlets, for example. Some of the things that I was very frustrated with is the very little attention that the situation got. And I realized I wasn't the only one because I saw two articles that were published afterwards as I started digging into it.

And they were saying globally, mainly the same thing. That is how is it that this situation has not gotten the attention that it would have gotten before. I remember the 2010, 2011. And in magnitude, for example, compared to that previous drug, it's a study that we're actually carrying out now, trying to compare what makes this drought different. And is there anything that we can do about it? Trying to mapping just the drought hotspot is just one thing, but trying to better understand what is it that we are not able to do or what are we missing.

So basically, yes, we were wondering how is it that it has not captured the attention of the rest of the globe. And that's why it struck me, it struck me is that maybe the humanitarian community itself is collapsing in the sense that the need and the level of the magnitude of crisis at, global level, it's so immense that things fall into the crack and this get now pushed into a second or hoping that somebody else will pick it up. Well, I think underpinning that is as the crises accelerate, the focus is gradually but inexorably going to be more and more local for the Japan and Germany and eventually the United States, It's partially ripping on my own country or the education system here. I think one of the reasons to describe the lack of attention is, I think 30% of Americans

or something like that think Africa is a country. And ripping on my own self, when you told me when we met that you lived in the Horn of Africa, I didn't know what that was. And I've been to Africa three times. So I switched my globe around today. The Horn of Africa is the Horn here. which is exactly the eastern countries that you reference. And you're from Djibouti, right?

Yes, I am. So what do, I guess this would be a two-part question. Obviously, the people you work with understand climate and envision future scenarios. But what are the average people in Kenya and Uganda think about or what is their response when you bring up global warming or climate change? Do you know, it's funny, I generally don't think they think about climate change. I think they see this as these buzzwords that gets coverage and X. And I don't think they link it with someone. For example, I was talking to a colleague of mine whose wife produces as a bee, what's called apiculture.

Yeah. She has a bee farm. And she produces honey. So I asked him, how was the honey production, for example, compared to before he says, oh, yeah, now it has reduced. We had to increase the price. So I asked him, and what brought that change? He says, oh, you know, it's pollution, degradation,

but never had he brought the word climate change into that mix. As in it's the fact that the trees are disappearing, yes, the fact that pollution is there, yes. But climate change, for most people in the home, it appears like this buzzword. That has been confirmed by another. And she's a friend and a colleague, and she's educated. So I asked, what do you think of climate change? And as we're preparing for the podcast, and she tells me, people should stop talking about it and start doing something about it. So I asked, what does she think we should be doing?

She says, yeah, well, let's just plant more trees. And then after that, we will take care of and try to manage the waste so that our rivers don't get polluted. And maybe it's upon us because I don't know, we were too scientific. We're not trying to explain that to the common people. Or maybe we should have broken it down into more. Here's a thought. And I'm not an expert on this, which is why I'm so glad to be talking with you. There's a growing climate justice conversation, which is that the global north burned 90% of the fossil carbon and hydrocarbons that are resulting in climate change.

But predominantly the impacts, certainly in the near term and very likely in the longer term, will be disproportionately felt on the global South, which has less economic and energetic means with which to adapt. But I never thought about the fact that climate justice conversation is probably being held among elites and scientists and such, and the general public in those countries may not be fluent in the climate scenarios or even the logic of it. What do you think about that? I think I tend to concur with you. I think there's a local definition of climate justice that for us in Africa would probably be more links to environmental justice, for example,

whereby that entails the right to have access, to use, and to control mostly natural resources by the communities that share the land. So that's, I think, a more localized, contextualized definition of climate justice. And I recall a case back in 2003 where a local community in Kenya even brought a case against the government of Kenya to the African Commission on Human Rights. human and people rights, and the commission found Kenya to be in violation of the, of the charter, the African charter, and that the community was displaced from their ancestral land without any prior consultation or any adequate or effective compensation for the loss of the property, the disruption, the loss of resources, the community. We're talking about pastoral communities, yeah.

There was even an aspect of the right to practice their religion and their culture, culture, and etc. So when we talk about climate in an African context, most often than not it has an environmental aspect to it more than, so definitely, you know, when we are, we're trying to explain some of those big notions. I also recall at some point the ozone layer, I'm a child of the 80s, so mid-90s and the Rio, I remember that huge fear we had that the ozone layer was disappearing and we're all going to die. And I don't know. Do you know if it was ever fixed? The ozone layer?

Yes. Well, it was, but there's worries about it having a resurgence of risk. But what ended up happening is that was one of the environmental stories where we had a smoking gun. We could see what was happening. And there was an easy economic fix, which was to change the chloro-fluorocarbons in the spray bottles and things like that. So, yeah, it did it did heal? So did you start as a teenager? in Djibouti caring about the environment?

Have you long cared about the non-human sphere? I was a witness to the effect of climate change, definitely. Because we see, again, when we're talking about pastoral communities, a third generation of pastoralist, my grandfather, used to come in a period of drought, so whenever he would come and says, yeah, it's a major drought, you have lots, so many different numbers of cattle and goat and sheep and etc. So that always resonates the work. I honestly have no idea whether that was what brought me to working on drought and community resilience.

But I don't know, maybe subconsciously, it contributed to it's some of those things that I was very much sensitive to. This was very scary back in the 90s when you were told, no, no, no, the ozone layer is going to, it's going to be hotter and hotter. And imagine Djibouti were already at 54 degrees Celsius. How are places like Djibouti going to manage hotter temperatures in coming decades? What I can't imagine too many, I mean, how many people have air conditioning, which itself generates more fossil emissions, of course. In Djibouti and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East, it's hard to even speculate. What are your thoughts on that?

You see, the gap is widening in Djibouti specifically. I mean, at least the Middle East, they can afford it there. they have the until fossil fluid just just disappears but but they they have the resources to cater for the need energy need in Djibouti's a whole different story because I mean we are less than a million inhabitants population and and 75% of us live in the capital city and out of that I think we are probably you see that parietal low way we have 20% that have 80% of the resources and vice versa so there is a the gap is widening between the middle class and those who can afford.

And electricity is luxury, to be honest. I don't, it is very scary. I will invite you to come visit you, but especially in the summer. Especially in the summer? Yes, but you are my friends. So in the summer, August. I don't do well with heat. It's hard for me to imagine 54 Celsius.

That would probably be a death sentence for me unless I was air-concuit. conditioned. I don't know how to think about these things. I mean, you're a professional, your work is on climate adaptation. And do you have models looking at the hotter parts of Africa in coming decades? And do you make recommendations on that trajectory? Because it It would seem to me that if there is an economically disadvantaged population that can't have electricity or air conditioning, that the wet bulb temperature will get to points where it could be potentially fatal for more humans in coming decades. Yes, we do have studies, just to answer that, we have studies and we are actually commissioning

some more studies that goes into analyzing the extreme temperature and the effect on, I'm sure some have already been done on economy and on human population specifically. That I'm sure it has been done. But you're trying to undertake our own part of the analyzing the trigger and thresholds whereby it becomes unsustainable and what action. We spoke earlier about scenarios and scenario planning. These are some of the things that we are hoping to achieve. But you see, this is another gap that I notice.

And I'm not the only one. I also saw that earlier this week when John Kerry was at a conference, the U.S. envoy for climate change as a conference in, I think it was in Senegal, and the network of African negotiator were not really happy about some of his discourses and they, for once, and I think it has something to do with the upcoming COP, 27,

which will be now in Africa, in Egypt. Among the scientists in Africa, we are calling more and more for African voice to be heard. This, for example, these 1.5 degree, that is being analyzed and scenarios being built around in the IPCC. We already passed that in Djibouti. I think we had a 1.7 degree increase between 1980s and 2017. We were already by then at 1.7 degrees of this increase.

So a little bit more inclusivity. And maybe that's a component of the climate justice that we were talking about, having a seat at the table. Of course, the city is there, because I mean, I understand this is not the first time COP is in Africa, but still, are the voices? Are we loud enough to be heard? So it's a whole different story. Well, just hypothetically, if the voices were heard, what sort of things might happen?

I guess we would talk a little bit more about the resources in Africa that are being mined, for example, and overly, overly, extremely. I mean, the continent being depleted of most of its resources for the benefit of, yes, of course, I own an iPhone. So I'm pretty sure I'm also guilty of that. But for the benefit of those who consume the product, I'm talking about the conflict that rose from excessive exploitation of resources and the fact that we have areas in Congo that have not seen peace for I don't remember how long. And it's not because people like to fight. I can assure you if there was a, I don't know, maybe I've had a magic one, my friend, the world. would be a little bit different.

I'm going to get to that. I'm going to give you a magic wand at the end of this conversation. Is there any discussion with John Kerry or in your climate work that the world's plans to decouple economic growth from energy use will recouple our growth with material use because of all the mining and the rare earths and the metals and things like that, many of which are found in Africa? So in some ways, the renewable energy transition is a bigger environmental burden on Africa and South America, et cetera. Is that something that people talk about or not? Yes, and no. I mean, I think the elite among ourselves, yes, definitely we are debating it. But when you come to governments in plural, there's that debate that says, okay, we are barely getting into the same level of development as the Global North, for example.

So what exactly are you trying to say? Are you trying to halt and reduce and slow us down as we get developed and get better infrastructure, resources, access to better resources and basic social services and et cetera and sector? I mean, better health system, better education system. What exactly are you trying? Are you trying to hamper our development now that you are bringing up, you were the one, as in Global North, you are the one who went on those years and decades and centuries of excessive pollution? And then the compensation that comes with it, for example, there was an element to that when the Paris Declaration was being approved and ratified. Unfortunately, that discussion hasn't reached at government level yet. You see, it still remains among elites, among the rest of us who have that debate. It says, okay, what would that mean for Africa now? So what is the general attitude towards the United States and the global north? And I'll ask that in a two-part question. amongst your colleagues, your professional colleagues that are working on these issues,

and amongst the general population in Uganda, Kenya, etc. Your previous administration, we were a little bit scared. This one, we are. You guys got your sense back together. No, that's the... You may be in for a yo-yo in the coming decade, but go on. It's scary. It is really, really, extremes always scares me, my friend.

Do the extremes exist in your own political situation there in a similar way? Definitely. I mean, Somalia, for example, I've been facing al-Shabaab for quite some time. Before that, it was some warlords after the collapse. That's another collapse. The whole country collapsed back in the 90s. So, yes, extremes, yeah, they always scary. So that's, I think we tend to get under government of Somalia to their credit is

tending to get it under control right now with the help of. of the contingents from the region, Kenya, Ethiopia, even Djibouti, so yeah, through Amisome and UN some. But to answer your question, among elites, yes, we ask ourselves, why would you want to slow the development? And is there an equitable way whereby we could allow a certain level of development without, of course, going all crazy and destroying the environment? And then a little bit of economic compensation from the years and decades of over-exploitation, for example. And then the common person in Africa, mostly they are very benevolent. They're a really good opinion of the United States on all aspects.

What about China? Because China is really with their Belt and Road initiative, really trying to make a presence in Africa probably because of access to these minerals and materials. Is there a growing respect for China or is it a different sort of dynamic? It's a complete different dynamic at that point. For China, we've noticed the level of respect would have between the U.S. government and the other government. Although there is lectures on human rights and et cetera, I mean, we understand that. That's the rules of the game.

And although China does not interfere in the way government conduct their business, But it's still a risk and it's a gamble. Honestly, I'm very happy to be on that place and I'm really happy that I'm not a government in Africa or in a government in Africa at this point. Because it's a very, you know, you find yourself in a very delicate situation whereby you try to bring your country to prosper and economically prosper and develop. And the countries in the north do not provide the same type of, of arrangement that you'd get from China. But of course, there's also a catch in that. In that, it is too good to be true, to be honest.

So you'll see countries that have almost put some of the infrastructure on the balance with China as they get more loan. So it is scary when we read about it as a common person and we see, okay, are they going to see is my airport or my port? What would that mean for my country? And as an individual, I mean, we have that pride and says, but this is what will that mean for me as a Ugandan? If tomorrow they come and sees Antepe Airport, for example, can they even do that? So this is, it is, it's a, the geopolitics that you're talking about and the fact that probably we need to be a little bit more aware as a citizen of what would that mean and get that literacy. When we spent time together in August, you mentioned at our conference more than once you mentioned that, you mentioned that, Not everyone can afford collapse.

Can you unpack what you meant by that? Oh, that was a heavy statement, my friend. Let me start with an example. We were doing, back in 2013, I was doing the review for, I remember at that time it was the MDG, the Millennium Development Gold, and there was Gold One, which was below poverty, yeah, a certain level, like $1.25 or something. One, $1.25 per day? Yeah, exactly.

Okay. That was the level of poverty, yeah, below. which somebody is categorized as being poor and proper. So the MDGs, before we even moved to the SDGs. So I was at that conference. It was a UN conference and we were analyzing and presenting. I was a national expert at that point from civil society, government, with University of Djibouti.

And then when we presented and says, okay, the cost of life, that's $1.25 doesn't mean anything. as in the cost of life is so high, has increased so much, that pretty much 100% of the population at that point would be considered poor, so some crazy number at that point. So when we're in the middle of that discussion, one of the experts, and I can assure you, I don't think the person was joking, said, but why don't we just raise, no, lower it down, let's just lower it down, or just play with the threshold, as if that is a solution to,

to the poverty problem and the numbers. Let's get a better report by just playing around the figure. And that tells me that when we're talking about collapse, we're talking about people and population that really live with less than a dollar per day. People can afford meat. For example, nowadays we're talking about the global crisis. The price of meat in some areas in Africa have skyrocketed. There's a growing veganism in global north.

We joke among ourselves. We were vegan before the rest of the world. because I mean some people really can't afford it. So, yeah, that's what I meant by people can't afford to collapse. It's true. They are already struggling on daily basis to afford a meal. And that's one more talking about one meal a day. Some people, you know, they go to work with empty stomach kids in school.

And that's one of the things that I really credited some of the government in Africa is to set up those canteen, the school canteen, kids that live home empty stomach. So that they, and then they come to school and get breakfast at school before they get to start the day. Same. Get the dinner, carry some small dinner home so that at least the parents get something to it. So you could imagine that there was a testimony about a nursing mother. She was so weak. She couldn't afford the milk for, as in her body, couldn't produce milk for, and she's still nirks in there. The situation that I see and I read about almost on a daily basis, yeah, the collapse that we're talking about, my friend. So how are these topics, well, probably not collapse, but just the general economic trajectory, climate change, the environment,

some of the issues that you and I discuss, how are they covered in schools in East Africa? And what do you think is working and what still needs to be changed with respect to education? I think some have moved farther and faster than other countries. I remember there was, well, she passed away. I think she was a Nobel priest, Wangari Mataya professor. A Kenyan, she was one of those local leader and university leaders, social society leader, who pushed and promoted that education, the leadership through education, understanding what the environment is and teaching how and actually how to cohabit and to live with the non-human at this point. protect the nature, plant trees, rehabilitate the environment, and include those curricula at a very early age, even at primary school. So she is actually for Kenya, a pioneer in that sense.

There are many other, many different type of area of the continent that are also acting at that same level. But you see, as I said, it's not generalized at this point. But they, in the United States, at least, high school age, students are learning quite a bit about climate change. Is that the same in Africa or not in the schools? It could be, sometimes it is included in the geographic courses, as in understanding what the climate is, understanding the different type of climate. And within then, I'm sure that's where we studied the various declarations, the Rio and all those UN conferences, the UNF, C, all the convention

that came through the negotiation processes. So yes, it is. But there is a contextual aspect to it that is not taught yet. It still remains at a very general level where we have convention, trying to understand, have you ratified, what would that mean? Don't litter. For example, there are some good practices that maybe you will learn in an environmental club that I really hope and wish that they were more developed at this point. So in our first conversation this summer, I learned quite a bit in addition to where the horn of Africa is, I was surprised to learn that there is an environmental ethic in Islam that's stated in the Quran.

And you explain that to me. Could you explain that to our listeners? I was totally unaware of that. Oh, yes. It's true. It's actually, we are told as Muslim that we are part and parcel of the nature. We don't own it. We did not create it.

So we have to be much like the rest of the non-human. we were created by the creator. And as such, it comes with duties and responsibilities to the environment. One of it is to respect the non-human, the nature, the trees. I'm almost speaking French, the arbor. The trees, the insects, the being merciful to animals. You can use a donkey, but you can't beat a donkey and, you know, those type of animal welfare. To a point where, of course, we have three big events in a year,

which is the Eid after Ramadan, the pilgrimage and the aid after pilgrimage. The one after pilgrimage, you know, we sacrifice sheep or goat. And then we were told, for example, be merciful. Even in that where you are to sacrifice that, make sure that the animal doesn't see the knife and you don't, you know, moving on says, oh, I'm going to, what you drop? I mean, because you have to take into consideration the feelings of the animals. And that's something that we are taught as part of our religion. It is, it doesn't get, it is true.

I agree with you, Nate. It doesn't get publicized as much as the extreme gets publicized. But, yeah, that's the part of our religion that I'm really proud of. Well, the extreme gets publicized generally in our culture. And of course, the modern algorithms in the media are giving an even larger voice to the extreme. And as we discussed, there are extremes in your religion and country. and there are extremes in my country and the religions here as well. And that's why when I travel, which I don't do much, and I meet people like you,

I feel like a citizen of the world. And I have a friend in another country that likes soup and music and laughter and animals and family and all these things that we share. And yet above us are these country boundaries and these rules of who gets what and who says what and these financial markers that dictate give us a really narrow path for what we do with our life hours. So I'm very happy to hear that Islam has some environmental ethic embedded in its teachings. Yeah, I'm just not a scholar and an expert to it, but I assure you it is a, There's a huge aspect of the non-human that has been, is in the Quran that God has brought on us. There's a whole chapter on the ants and another chapter on the bees and how it is reported. I mean, in the Quran?

In the Quran, yes. Wow. I mean, that is what I deeply care about is the animals and insects and birds and ecosystems of this planet. And I've concluded that we have to keep the human system together from breaking apart. because a true collapse would be one of the worst scenarios for the environment. Already, I imagine that if meat is scarce in Eastern Africa, that the bush meat trade is probably accelerating, yes?

Yes. You see, there's a case of Ebola. In Uganda, Ebola has been declared as an epidemic in Uganda. That was a few couple of hours ago. I think I read that. Definitely. I don't want to speculate. What I was looking for about.

I thought you were going to say, depress us further. Well, depress us further. Monkeypox for you, Ebola in this region. Actually, let me credit the African countries because we were able to do, to some extent, to handle the COVID pandemic better than you global north because of Ebola and fortunate other epidemics

and pandemics that we were facing. Sorry, before that. So I have to credit my, we did something better than you guys. Well, you probably did other things better than us, too. You have vibrant communities, granted at an economically, materially disadvantaged level, but the community presence there is much stronger than in the most places in the global north. Correct. Yes, it is true. It is true, unfortunately. And we don't discriminate. There's something that I was across many different nationalities in Africa. We were

extremely sad by how African were treated in China, in India, in India, in India. India, recently in Ukraine, you know, when war started in Ukraine and everybody was reaching and heading towards the border, either Poland or something. There was, I mean, discrimination. It is, anyhow, unfortunately, the word. That was really sad. Yeah. I just out of curiosity, because I have been to Africa several times.

So you split time between Uganda and you have an office in Nairobi and then you're from Djibouti. So just in your travels, just for me to live vicariously through your words, what are the sort of animals that you come across, the wild animals when you're on your farm and Uganda, etc? I am so scared of animals, my friend. I don't have a farm yet. I would have probably, I would probably live that one. Well, we talked a few weeks ago and you were in some village in Uganda. Yes, it was, no, I was in Turkana, cross border. with Uganda.

Lord War. Yes. And we were doing some training for cross-border communities there as part of the resilience work that we were doing. In terms of animal, there are two types of,

not two types of animal, but two types of spaces, geographic spaces, if I can put it in for the lack of better words, you have, for wildlife specifically, you have the national parks and then you also have conservancies, yeah? And the national park,

of course, they are gazetted, the limited, so pretty much fenced out so we know it's only for wildlife. But in conservancies, for example, you find a mix of livestock and wildlife. And there, at times of scarcity, we are the times that we are facing now and sometimes back in 2018 or 2017, you have this insane human livestock and wildlife interactions. When I'm talking about insane, it's often results in the death of either livestock or shepherd or wildlife. I mean, I recall elephant and giraffe being killed by pastoralists because the resources were so small that was either you protect your livestock and they get access to the resources or it's a wildlife. So these are some of the challenges that we face in a remote area where we're all.

So here's an honest story from someone living in a rich country. I deeply care about animals. Africa has some of the most wonderful megafauna in the world. So when I hear about an elephant or a lion being killed, because it's encroaching on a village, I feel empathy for the elephant or the lion because I don't know the people in the village. And yet, a few months ago, a rat

a raccoon was killing my chickens. And I was obsessed with capturing it, which I did. I didn't kill it. I drove it away like 12 miles away. So that raccoon had the highest carbon footprint of any raccoon around. But it's the same dynamic. It's just that here raccoons are plentiful. And it's my yard and my chickens.

So I had a different reaction to. to in my brain. Yet when I think halfway across the world of a lion or an elephant being killed because it's encroaching, to me, the lions and the elephants represent wild nature of what once existed on this planet. And I feel this urge to protect it. Yet, how am my reaction to the raccoon is any different than the people in Uganda reacting to their other animals? It's the same. Exactly. And I'm happy you understand. And in comparison, you see the raccoon, you can catch it. I can assure you if they could catch the elephant and taking, take him, her away. They would have done it. It's just a different, we're talking about different scales of danger. But yeah. Yeah. So you have children, Ayan. As a mother, how is your knowledge of our global unfolding situation and your professional work influenced your. your parenting and the raising of your children?

Wow. I'm more scared now that I was before when I was, when I didn't have the children. The reason why I'm scared is I have that constant question, what word am I creating for them and what citizen am I raising, for example? You see what I mean? It's questions as in like empathy, making sure that they see, if they find a bee,

they don't go and crush it because, and linking that to the honey that they enjoy, you know, whenever the throat is painful, it's like, oh, come here, here, here is your hand. Do you remember that? That bee that you saw it? Yes, she is the one who is producing this nice honey. So please don't go kill her. So this type of education, it is, and I feel as a parent we have a responsibility

to raise the best citizen we can for the world and for the world to come. I mean, it's a very scary responsibility, my friend. We didn't realize that when we were doing them, but it came as, as they're growing and asking so many different intelligent questions at their age. saying that, okay, okay, fine. That's why you don't have to, you don't cut flowers because you see, again, that B that you saw is going to come eat it. And the butterfly, oh, what a beautiful butterfly.

Yes, you can see them because there's so many different flowers and trees around you. There's another aspect that I will always carry as a memory is, for example, my country, Djibouti, again, there is a bit of the Red Sea that comes into the Gulf of Adam that comes into the city. And we had to, we as government of Djibouti, so that we were able to build roads and infrastructure, we had to retake some of that space from the sea and fill it with lands. And by doing that, we lost some fauna. We lost some beautiful pink flamingo that used to come. And I remember that as a child going to school. And we can't see them.

Really, you know, whenever I drive through town, they're not there anymore. So this is the things that I keep in mind. I keep vivid in my memory just to tell them that, you know what? They used to be and trying to perpetrate that memory of what was there before. And how we, our action actually impact as a really deep impact on the other inhabitant of the planet. You are a natural ecologist and I have no doubt you will raise your children to be great citizens. with wide boundary thinking. So I actually could keep you for hours, but I know it's Friday night in Kenya, and you've

had a long week. So I would like to ask you a few closing questions that I ask all my guests. And hopefully you're okay with these. Can you tell us a story or two from your experiences? What's happened along the way of this trajectory that delighted you about the human spirit and fed your optimism? Yes, you know what feds my optimism is when I hear that peace prevailed in a time of scarcity. That's it.

I'm really hopeful that we were able to keep the loss of life at a minimum. That's the thing that always makes me happy, is that it is true. Resources are very scarce. It is true that competition for those resources can also get deadly. but still the communities and people have mentally grown enough to know that there is no point getting into a violent conflict or something like that because what's happened to your neighbor will definitely at this point happen to you. And what goes around comes around as in, you know, karma is a reality and I believe in it in my religion. We don't do harm to your neighbor because you never know what you can when you might need him or for reality. I mean, for real.

So that's the thing that I'm hopeful for some of the things that I, an example, is the solidarity that I see when a community, for example, has been harshly affected by drought and the resources are already depleted. I'm talking about not only natural resources, but now economic resources and how community come together to raise some small funds and make sure that, you know, so and so get the relief, the first. aid, the first relief, the first emergency response. It's always at community level. That's something that I'm really, I'm happy about it. On the other side, if I can elaborate, Nate, what saddens me is to see that at a global level, small wins at community level are not, do not, and can be upscale. You see what I mean?

Of course, we see the first aid and first response that countries in Europe, Poland and etc. provided to Ukraine. In a more recent, see what happened in Martha's Vineyard, for example, where a community mobilized itself to come in and support to the migrant that were dropped there. I see that, but at a global level, that's just a small example. I really wish there were a mechanism whereby those solidarity action could be triggered. A lesson, COVID was a harsh lesson for me in terms of development programming. It showed that countries can end up, you know, being closing themselves, trying to protect yourself from, from, and closing the boundaries, which could also mean, you know, the whole world came to a standstill as in, when you hold resources. And remember, we moved from being self-sufficient.

to relying on another countries and another producer for pretty much everything. And one example that happened to me was when I needed medicine for my child, the medicine was out of stock. Although the medicine was produced in Kenya, the ingredient comes from Austria. And Austria is the only place that produced that ingredient. So because of COVID and delays in supply chain, that medicine, became out of stock and they couldn't produce it in Kenya. So these are the type of thing that I want as a citizen of this word.

If we were able to hold our government accountable, says, okay, listen, I understand you're afraid, but at least can you make sure that, you know, there is some movement of goods that are possible. Ethiopian Airlines, for example, was the only airline who maintained. I am sure it was not out of philanthropy. There was also a little economic incentive for them to do that. But they quickly turn around and turn their planes into cargoes, for example. And that was really helpful.

They were still flying around carrying goods. So these are the things that make me happy, but on the other hand, and there are also things that sadden me, you know, the crisis in leadership that I see more and more across the globe. It is very scary, I see. Is it a crisis in leadership because we're electing the wrong people, or is it a crisis in leadership because we suddenly face a poly crisis and no leader has a game plan for such a complex, threatening upcoming decade? I think it's the latter.

I'm sure some sort of democratic leaders exist around the globe, which is a fairly good number, which is very good. But I truly believe it's because of the polycrisis, the nature of the scale of the events that we are facing across the globe at this point. So we need to educate future leaders about how these things fit together and how there are no solutions, but there are better pathways than others on how to how to navigate this is my belief. Absolutely.

And be humble enough to understand that the North doesn't have all the solution and bring in, I'm sure, I'm sure across the continent, you have some eloquent better leaders than I'll ever be, so who are able to explain that. If I may need, one of the things that I see is that also the technology gap, for example, you see how, and I understand why most African things that Africa is, most American think that Africa is a country, because I hope it becomes one country. That's where I hope will head. But my challenge is, for example, it's small, small things.

You know, if I set up an early warning system, and in the case of flash floods, for example, And I have set up an early warning system. The case of flash floods means that the rain, it has not rained on you, for example, for you to be swamped and affected by the flash floods. But it has rained somewhere up there, up north, downstream somewhere, to a point where you will be affected by those floods. And you as an individual can be across the border. So how do I reach that person?

This is the type of technology challenges that are, genuine challenges that I'm facing. for example. How can we make sure that when you have a crisis that happened in Chad and you have communities that are crossing and settling up in Sudan, Sudan has the financial mechanism to take care of that mobile population. That's just an example. And these are across two, not only two countries, but two regional bloc because, I mean, we are aiming to become an African Economic Commission. We're setting up the African free continental trade area, good and services, and people would be able to move freely.

So these are the things that we have embarked at continental level. But, of course, it's such a long way. These are the things that occupy my brains nowadays. So this podcast in many ways is using technology as a long-term flash flood, economic flash flood warning for listeners. So we talked earlier about community and you just mentioned that the global north doesn't have all the answers. So what community or daily practices in the Horn of Africa do you see your experience that would be helpful for Westerners listening to this ahead of what I refer to as the Great Simplification, which is a kind of an economic contraction and simplification of our lives?

Do you have any observations or recommendations? Indigenous knowledge would be one because it's something that, and you remember Lila that we met is the one who was mentioning how, and that struck me because it's the same thing in our communities. They are rich in knowledge, indigenous knowledge, in how to sustain soil. But we tend to forget that. We tend to turn to fertilizers and industrial mechanism rather than green and indigenous knowledge. That's one. They have an indigenous early warning system that tells them they have the community peace agreements whereby before transomans and personal mobility, they always send a diplomat and void to go and inform the other community that they are coming.

Where should they settle? You know, there's an elaborate customary law in the ISA community. that spread across Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti, for example. Issa community? What is that? The Issa community that is spread across Ethiopia, Somalia. Issa is a tribe? It's a tribe, yes. And Djibouti.

And the Issa king sits in Dera Dadawa. So that's somehow the capital city for the Issa. So those customary laws were there before international law, before modern law. Solidarity is another aspect of it. We were mentioning, we're talking about it, whereby you could, time of peace, travel, go through whole territory, and food and shelter will be provided to you at no cost. I mean, that's how welcome you would always feel within partial communities. In East Africa? Yes.

Yeah, that's not the case here. Not remotely. That's actually my biggest fear. I mean, I worry about a lot of things. I think the single biggest thing I'm afraid of is the number of entire. people that have their own story about the world, that when resources become more scarce, their entitlement is going to blind them to community and sharing and peace and learning and all that stuff.

And maybe that impulse will be less in Africa because of you've been living this already on and off for decades or longer. That's true. It's true. But you see, we also tend to, as a society modernized, we also tend to lose that. And what cares me the most in a modern society is, for example, if anything, God forbid, if anything were to happen to me on the road, that no one would come to my help. You see what I mean?

The solidarity part of it, come and rescue your, it's just an anonymous person who gets, you see what I mean? That's something that I see a lot. in your country? Well, I think what you're saying is you have to, by definition, be self-reliant. Where in the global north in my country, if my car breaks down or something, I just make a phone call and it's fixed with some money. No, what I mean is, for example, if my life wears endropathy, if anything, God forbid,

was, you know, assault or whatever, you know, an accident, but God forbid again, the level of solidarity or if there's some tags who are trying to rob me, things like that, yeah, a physical assault to me as an individual. On the other hand, yes, of course, if car breaks down, definitely the same thing. I always call road rescue. Same thing here in Nairobi. But no, a physical assault is this thing that I'm worried. If we become so entitled that what happens to your neighbor, you're just so insensitive and insensitized to. What happened to your neighbor?

It's just, okay, or whatever. Police is there. Somebody will take care of it, you know, putting that on somebody else. Yeah. Yeah. So do you have any specific recommendations for young people becoming aware of all this climate and resources and some of the issues that you work on? Like a teenager, college age, do you have recommendations to that age group of people listening?

to this program. I think I'll invite them to be more aware of their surroundings, as in, you know, when be aware of your actions. There's things that are small, small, and I realize it's actually the small, small action, that things that you do inadvertently, for example, when you wipe your hands and you threw a, or you finish a pack of chips and then you go and litter, you threw it around without realizing that's, you know, thinking who is going to pick it up after you, assuming that somebody will go and clean after you, that go to the plastic, the huge extreme use of plastic. When you go to the beach, make sure that, you know, you collect some basic.

And I think these are civic engagement that at point, at the time, rather, was being taught in this in civic education, that I realized what came, what's constituted part of my environmental education is, okay, make sure that you collect your waste after you're finished, you don't litter the beach, you know, be conscious of your actions and how small, small actions will combine and become a huge whale who can't eat because of that piece of plastic that you've left. And it might, the whale might not be next to you, but it is true, definitely, you know, the impact will be felt. You know that French is the fete papillon? The butterfly's wings?

That's a thing, the butterfly wings, exactly. And how we feel a global impact of small-scale actions. That's for me what I would think. It's very hard. Yeah, I think raising consciousness, being conscious of what you're doing and the time we're alive is probably the very first recommendation. I agree with that. So here's another heavy question or light,

depending on how you choose to answer. What do you care most about in the world, Ayan? What I care most about is human life. Yeah. Life in general, I found it. There's a sanctity in life. And I don't know. I see too much suffering.

Sometimes unnecessary. But, of course, I also believe that there's a creator and there's a reason for everything that happens. But yeah, the thing that I care most about is life human and non-human. If you were a benevolent dictator and there was no personal recourse to your decisions, what is one thing that you would do to improve human and non-human and planetary futures? I would set up some standard operating measures that are available and you can't, as in, In time of crisis, this is what we shoot, the playbook.

This is the playbook that we are going to. Oh, like a break glass in case of emergency playbook ahead of time. Yes, exactly. This is what to do. I'm working on that. Yes, exactly. See, that's where we're friends. That's the one.

And actually make sure that they can't wiggle. You know, they can't, that's what the dictator is making sure that the distinct part of it, is making sure that it is applied. As in you can't wiggle out. You can't just see them, yeah, well, I don't agree. No, that is exactly to the letter going to be applied. Is there such a thing like that being done in East Africa where there are blueprints and playbooks for a different economic, environmental trajectory in the future? Or is it kind of on the fringe?

It's on the fringe here, to my knowledge. Yeah. Yeah. Your previous administration, I mean, don't get missed that in it. I swear that crisis of leadership, you had a whole book of pandemic prepared. I don't know what it looked like, but for some reasons, it was thrown out of the window. But that's your point, right? Is at the moment of crisis the best plans by technically capable people in the past are discarded for political reasons, not only in my country, but in humans generally.

Generally, absolutely. Yes. So they exist, but they are very much at national level. For example, and that's the thinking that we've embarked on for the past, what, 10 years, yes, in the, in the horn, is you act national, but you still need to think regional, as in how would you accommodate the excess? I mean, the movement of population, for sure, you'll get 20, 15 other million of people who are on the verge of famine and across the border. They will come to your country. How will you accommodate them? They will, before it turns into a riot, civil crisis and peace is instability arises. So, yeah. Is there any discussion about overpopulation in general in Africa, in the committees that you're in and such, or is that a taboo topic? Oh, no, no.

It's not taboo at all. As a matter of fact, youth and youth employment was. ranked first in our driver of conflict. Regional 2021, we're still doing the 2020 one. But yeah, in 2021, youth and youth unemployment ranked top as a driver of conflict. And we are aware of that. The region is protected to have a strong annual demographic growth. And it's estimated to be ranging between 2.5 and,

3.5%. And right now, we have 270 million people and 60% of those inhabited are youth, I mean, as in 30 years and below. So we know that youth population, the challenges and the opportunities that they bring and how well you can manage it. It's part of our planning and programming, yeah. It's a really tough issue. And in my work, I always talk about we have two population problems. One is we have eight billion humans on a finite planet. And the other is we have a population of refrigerators and airplanes and cars and air conditioners. And they're both relevant to our situation. And people are rushing to the, was it to Mars or to the space? Yeah, right. Yeah. People are.

rushing to Mars. This has been a very wonderful conversation and I would love to have you back next year to take a deeper dive on some of these topics. So glad to spend more time with you and I wish you all the best with your very important work in East Africa. Do you have any closing thoughts or comments for our listeners? Well, I really appreciate that. I'm very, I'm humble. really. I don't consider that I have response to or a knowledge or I mean, I'm sure you understand what I mean, but I really appreciate, I've appreciated the conversation and the opportunity that we have to work on on some of those heavy, heavy questions. You know, at times what you realize, what I realize is that not like you, we are at time of a cascading risk as it is not one or two,

But it's a combination of all of those and at different magnitudes and the challenges that each are bringing to this human life and the non-human life. I mean, the task is huge, my friends. I'm happy to have you by my side. That's something that I can tell you. Salam, Ayyan. To be continued. Salam, with pleasure. Thank you.

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