The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL WEEK 16 BETS: Bills-Browns, Chargers-Cowboys, Bucs-Panthers, 49ers-Colts, Patriots-Ravens and more

Episode Date: December 19, 2025

Hark, the herald betting angels sing! With the holiday season in full swing NFL, betting expert Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter deep dive into their best bets for NFL Week 16. They tell their fellow yuletide bettors their favorite NFL matchups across the board, leading up to their final five against the spread bets in their weekly NFL pick 'em pool contest, found at https://sharporsquare.thevolume.com/ as our audience competes for a fabulous grand prize trip to South Florida, courtesy of our sponsor Hard Rock Bet! We also have Simon's weekly Sharp Calls segment, where Simon recaps the conversations he's had with fellow professional gamblers responding to our show earlier this week. NFL betting picks and predictions provided today include their best bets for a blockbuster AFC matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots as Lamar Jackson and Drake Maye collide. Next, Chad and Simon go through Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions facing Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers. We also hear their opinion on a thrilling Saturday game between Caleb Williams and the plucky Chicago Bears hosting Josh Jacobs and the Green Bay Packers, now without defensive star Micah Parson. Plus, they discuss Josh Allen and the hot Buffalo Bills visiting Shedeur Sanders and the underdog Cleveland Browns, and the benched Tua Tagovailoa giving way to Quinn Ewers as the Miami Dolphins face Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Plus, will Jared Goff rebound and lead the Detroit Lions to a win over to Mike Tomlin, Aaron Rodgers, and the Pittsburgh Steelers? Can Philip Rivers do the impossible and lead the Indianapolis Colts to an upset win over the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football? And with the Patrick Mahomes injury, will Gardner Minshew and the Kansas City Chiefs cover against Cam Ward and the lowly Tennessee Titans? Will the Jacksonville Jaguars maintain momentum against Bo Nix and the Broncos in Denver? Answers to all these, plus picks and predictions for NFL Week 16 including our Brass Balls Bet of the Week, Round Robin parlays, over/under picks, survivor pool picks, Simon's biggest bets of the week, moneyline favorites, parlays, and so much more. #Volume 0:03:00 - START 0:05:15 - SHARP CALLS 0:09:48 - LA RAMS VS. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 0:15:50 - WASHINGTON COMMANDERS VS. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES  0:21:02 - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. TENNESSEE TITANS 0:26:50 - MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS. NEW YORK GIANTS  0:32:30 - NEW YORK JETS VS. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 0:33:18 - BUFFALO BILLS VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS 0:37:55 - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS. DENVER BRONCOS  0:43:14 - LAS VEGAS RAIDERS VS. HOUSTON TEXANS 0:46:35 - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. BALTIMORE RAVENS 0:50:45 - LA CHARGERS VS. DALLAS COWBOYS 0:53:45 - ATLANTA FALCONS VS. ARIZONA CARDINALS 0:56:00 - TAMPA BAY BUCS VS. CAROLINA PANTHERS  0:59:30 - PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS. DETROIT LIONS  1:09:29 - SIMON BIGGEST BETS, PARLAYS, ETC -- All lines provides by Hard Rock Bet Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter.  Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas.

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welcome to sharper square presented by hard rock bet we are part of the volume podcast network this is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention i am chad millen i am joined as always by my co-host my companion my godre my bf professional better simon hunter hello simon chad how we doing dude big, big quarterback news on Wednesday. I don't know if you saw it. Brady Cook will be the starting quarterback for the New York Jets for the second week in a row. Did you think I was talking about Tua?

No, because that happened Tuesday. Hmm. Interesting. Lock in, buddy. Got to lock in. My week is all screwed up, right? Because I was in Vegas, Monday, Tuesday. You fly back all day, Wednesday. and like you lose track of everything when you're in Vegas, especially when like you're,

you're just being bombarded by the bright lights late into the evening. So I don't know what day it was. I woke up this morning and like I couldn't even figure out what city I was in. Yeah, I just know because I basically got crushed by a bunch of pro betters because I just couldn't be the man and say, Simon says, give me Cincinnati plus one. And now they are minus four and a half. bad, bad missed by me.

And I don't know why. I was just, I was spooked up by the line. I couldn't get, I couldn't get why it was moving, why people were hammering Miami. So that's when I'm happy. I put a penny on it at Hard Rock,

but obviously hindsight, I think 30 minutes after our show ended, the two news got out of that when it happened. Yeah, and it moved four points. So yeah, that pretty shocking line in Miami plus four and a half now against Cincinnati. All right.

Well, we know that one won't be in the contest. This is our Thursday, week 16 episode we are going to narrow down to our final five now that we've got more information about injury news line movements etc etc subscribe to sharper square on youtube appapods Spotify let's get into this thing every week we give out our picks every week your fellow professional better assignment call to critique give us positive affirmation negative feedback whatever the case It's time to summarize those opinions.

Let's do sharp calls. Once again, we'll start with the Thursday game. I knew it. I knew that the Los Angeles side was the super public side. I just did not see the love by the professionals, and they're coming on the Seahawks side. So this is my favorite. These guys think they're professionals,

but they're actually frauds type of game. Yeah, we know what we're doing taking Seattle here. This is a fishy line, and we were hammered, and I'm happy with them. I'm getting the Rams of the dog down. I'll be with the public. I'll walk into the trap if this is one. And yeah, this is a game.

I don't know if we're going to talk more about, but tons of love for the pros on the Seahawks. And I just do not, do not see what they're seeing. But these games happen, right? It's divisional games. It's really tough to be your divisional opponent two times in a row. So I get their love for Seattle. I just, I think the hype is way too much for backing Sam Darnel on this spot.

But that was the first game that really jumped out. The Saturday games, I thought it was going to be all in love for Green Bay. Tons of really respect the guys I know on the Bears, and they flipped me. I'm actually on the bear side now where I wanted to get there. I didn't want to be on Green Bay. Just felt like there was something I'm missing. But that was a really interesting game. And obviously, that Commander's game, tons of love for Washington.

We knew that. That was going to be a pros versus Joe's. And Pover, keep hammering this eagle side. That number is not budging. I was hoping we're going to get seven. Like I just said, the professionals, they really like Washington. So that number is going to hold there. And moving to the Sunday games, you know, not as much love I was hoping for my Giants love.

I do have some pros with me on that giant side. It's just not as locked in. Like, say that Washington game is, which is just all professionals on that one side. Tennessee, a game I'm just not seeing. Tons of pros love that. The number has fallen. So maybe I can allow them.

I said, well, we already missed the best of the number. Let's not bet it anyway. I got some thoughts. I got some thoughts. Okay. I'm just, I'm not there. You were right about Dallas. The pros love Dallas.

Another game I think I had blind spot too. And I've been talking. to a little bit. It's just, I can't believe it. There are good trends in numbers underlying numbers for Dallas here in this spot, but I still can't believe they want to fade Herbert. I mean, this is what, three straight weeks of fading this guy's a dog. So very unique spot. And, you know, a game, we talk a little bit about, I kind of love Pittsburgh. Every pro I've talked to is all over the lines. So I understand now why that line's been bed up so heavily. It feels like every pro I know is on that side. On the flip side, most public people I've talked to, it feels like they're on.

the Pittsburgh side. So that's a really unique one. And, you know, the final two games we talked about, you know, we both love New England. Every pro I've talked to for the most part loves it. There are some pros all in the Ravens, right? This is a unique spot of a team that's been there before in the Ravens for the veteran quarterback base of a team that has not been there before and that just blew a 21 point lead. So I get it.

Maybe I'm leaking a little bit on the Patriots, but I still think the number is inflated and the Ravens are an overrated team. And the last one, we talked a little bit about it. We like the 49ers, all the pros I've talked for most part, like the Colts. But honestly, even if we're walking to a trap there, Chad, I still think it's a good spot for this 49ers team. I just, I don't know how the Colts offense keeps up with this 49ers offense, which is just fully healthy right now. And they're a machine. When they got all their guys back, you see with Purdy, they're just unstoppable.

So really fun games to break down this weekend, you know, a lot of primetime games to talk about it. It wasn't so much the 1 p.m. or 4 p.m. It really felt like all the primetime games, the pro. are hitting. So really fun week. All right. Let's get into it. Let's start to break them down. First, before we get into the games, quick announcement, we saw there was an issue seeing the overall leaderboard for the Sharp or Square Pro Football Pickham Contest, the free contest at Sharper Square.com. This has been fixed. So here is the announcement of the season-long

standing leaders right now. Three players. are at the top with a perfect 10-0 start. Congrats to Jack Mack, DM-6-13, shooter, neuter. There are still seven long weeks left, so it's anybody's game. All right, I do want to talk about the Rams in Seattle just for a minute. This line has moved. It flipped from Seattle's a one-point underdog to now Seattle's a one-and-half-point favorite. Puka, Puka, Puka.

Puka. Puka. What are you doing? Two weeks ago, it was Puka live streaming from the locker room, which is a no-no for the Rams. And then he's getting yelled at by veteran players. This week, it's Puka going on another live stream as a guest with some popular streamers saying, NFL refs are the worst. They just want to get on TV.

They're just lawyers who want to tell their friends, hey, check this out. I'm going to call a pass interference. And then I'm going to be on TV. Why is Puka turning into a distraction? What is he doing? I mean, the simpler version of it, and this is a guy that, what, do you go to college at Utah?

And now he's at L.A., and he was a quiet, shy little boy, but he's come out. And he's come out of his closet. He's 24 now. So he's young, dumb in L.A. And the second best, third best receiver in football right now, stat-wise. So his head can't get any bigger. I mean, this guy, he's in that mode where he, everything he thinks,

everything he says he thinks is the right truth. Where I think the dumbest thing I saw, he said vegetables give you inflation, which could be true, but just. Wait, wait, wait. Inflation or inflammation? Whatever it was. I don't know. I didn't even heard.

I was just like, I don't know what Pook was talking about. I'm like you. I'm like, I wish he got off these shows and just, you know, listen to his head coach who told him, these guys can't come to the facility.

Like he didn't want him to do those interviews with those kids on their live stream. And, you know, there's just nothing again from other than his, you know, up in a level of his notoriety on that community of like, you know, non-sports fans,

right? These are a video game people, I'm assuming, who watch these streamers. So maybe that's his idea, right? Get a new fan basis for himself. but it's a distraction, like you said, the Rams don't need.

Do I think it affected the spread? No, I think the spread was affected by Devante Adams injury. But yeah, not the best start for the Rams where they had that drama and then their flight was delayed, I believe, getting into Seattle. So a lot of negatives to start for the Rams in this matchup, chat. I agree with you on that. It doesn't change your opinion. No, this just feels like, again, it's all about picking your spots,

but like not. I'm not going to force this one to our contest, obviously. But it just feels like a little overreaction to the Seattle thing where it feels like the most pros I've talked to, they think they have to beat Seattle here and that this is a really tough spot for the Rams to be backing them. And, you know, my mindset is, it doesn't this line just seem a little fishy to you?

I just can't get over where I don't know. Is Seattle really a one and a half point favorite? But I told you, I'm too biased, I think, with this Rams team. I mean. Well, you love the Rams all season, and you've had them higher rated than anybody else all season. So now they're living up to your rating. And the Seahawks, look, they haven't looked good, right?

Like Sam Donald, they nearly lost to a grandfather, literally. Which again, and it's another reason of back them because it's like, those are the exact things we like. We like back in the teams that look bad that we know are really good facing a team that might have had their best game of the season. That was an incredible comeback by the Rams and a really. tough spot on a sure week now, but I keep going back to all these McVe stats. That's what like I keep, I can't get over how incredible McVeigh has been this late in the year. And, you know, I can read it to people again if they want to hear the McVe, 28 and 11 straight up,

2711 in the month of December in his career against the spread. Since 2021, he's 17 and 3 against the spread in the month of December. So, you know, we already know he owns the Seahawks. Like he just, I think this year they didn't cover. We definitely bet that the Rams, I believe, were two and a half point favorites. They were up 14, I believe, in the fourth quarter, and the Seahawks backdoored it. They lost by two. So they covered the number of they lost by two in a game that I just felt like the Rams were way better.

So like I said, if you want to follow what I call the fake sharps, they're going to be on the Seahawks this week. And I think the Rams, it's going to be the spot. So I'm interested here where this one goes. Like I said, it's a game where maybe I am too close this Rams team. I love them too much, but I just can't believe people are hammering Sam Darnold as a favorite in this divisional game. And like I told you, Chad, there's a lot of really interesting stats about backing McVeigh in this type of spot. And he actually does really well on short weeks. On the flip side, you know, this Seahawks team, since they face the Rams, it's obviously been different coaches, different quarterbacks.

They're only three in this spot of facing the Rams on a short week where the Rams tend to play really well in there. And the biggest one jumped out to me is I talked to you about the home field advantage for the Seahawks. That's been irrelevant since like 2015. They actually have a losing record at home and against the spread at home in this exact spot. So a short week that's facing a divisional opponent that's above 500. They're 0 and 6 in this spot, Seattle Seahawks since 2020. So again, it's even with their head coach, he's been there. He's 0 and 2 in this spot. So it's not a good spot historically for Seattle. And On the flip side, like I said, McVeigh, he dominates his late season.

He's just such a prepared coach. And, you know, another distraction could be had a baby. I love that kind of stuff. Like that's, those are my favorite things where coaches or players had babies and I bet on them anytime touchdowns. Obviously, I can't do that in McVeigh, but I will be taking aside here. But like I said, it's a game that luckily we can't put in our contest because I'm confident in it, but I think I might be blinded to my love of this Rams team. All right.

That's enough on a Thursday night game that 10 people are going to get to hear the show. and then actually bet on Washington at Philadelphia. We talked about this on Tuesday, Saturday night, six and a half point underdogs. The Washington commanders are going to be our brass balls, bed of the week, presented by hard rock bet. You know what it takes?

It takes brass balls. Look, I'm kind of taking your lead on this because you know the Eagles as well as anybody and you were leaning commanders on Tuesday. And when we talked about it before we came on the show, I presented three games that I thought could be brass balls contenders. And the only one that we felt really comfortable with was Washington. Lane Johnson's still out. I think that matters. The commanders have just been better. with Marcus Marriota, which we've been saying for the past few weeks, Jalen Carter will still be out.

I think that impacts how the Eagles can defend against a mobile quarterback and talk about wanting to be in a spot where you're fading a team. We want to fade the team that just blew somebody out and all of a sudden people think the Eagles are fixed when we're not quite convinced the Eagles are fixed. So at six and a half, this just feels a little bit inflated. as you noted in sharp calls, wise guys are on this one as well. The real wise guys.

Not the fake wise guys. It's true, though. It feels like inflated line. I had this model out of four. It's not shocking, though. If I was the general public and didn't have a model or know much about it,

why wouldn't I bet the Eagles here, right? They looked incredible. They looked like they got things right. And we've talked about it. They're a team that if they can figure out that offense, why would they not be the number two or number three best team the NFC? So this is obviously two teams.

that are going totally different directions. The commanders, like we've said, they're shut down their star quarterback. You know, how motivated would they be? Blah, blah, blah. I think that's why the public is just coming in so heavy. I don't know about you, but most books I've looked at or talked to,

it's like 80% to 90% of all the money, all the bets are coming on this Eagles team. Yeah, that's why it's so surprising to me. It hasn't moved to seven. That's clearly sort of resistance coming from the professionals. Yeah, it can be part of it. It's also, I think the books, too, are just like they they're like what we're thinking here is just who are the eagles to be catching

seven against a divisional opponent like this where who are the super bowl champions to be catching seven but i get it like they haven't looked like the super bowl champions at all no it's like it's the they haven't had a horrible season like the chiefs have had but it's been close to it like they've it's could have it could have fallen apart a bunch of different spots here so so just a bet for the egos to prove it to me right and um you know we always talk about the numbers with hurts there's some real numbers here to fade hurts, especially when it comes to this late in the season in December. He is great, usually against the spread to start the year,

but then the public keeps betting him falling more in love with him, and the number goes too far. And we've seen that now through his early career, because the Eagles, obviously, every year he's been a starter, he's made the playoffs, right? And he's kind of been in that spot where, you know, not the last two years or not last year, but the year before, they totally fell off.

So that's why these numbers are skewed a little bit, his December's numbers, but these ones just popped out to me. So December later Hertz, five and seven against the spread. When he faces the NFC East, he's one of five in his career in the month of December against the spread. So we talked about it. He just gets inflated in our division. I mean, Eagles Division historically, it's kind of been a bottom feeding division, right?

There are usually two teams really good. And the other two are just absolutely terrible. And it's been like that for his whole career, these last four or five years for Hertz. So even against bad teams and his division in December, he's struggled. It's been very bizarre. And another stat I really loved was the Eagles were a double-didget favorite last week. Hertz, for some reason, he's horrible at games following being a double-digy favorite. So when he's a double-digit favorite hurts, he's three and six against the spread in this following game.

It just shows they usually blow teams out, live up to it. And then the following game, they have a letdown game. So I've seen that time and time again. And on the flip side, Dan Quinn, you know, give him a ton of grief. I just don't think he's that good of a head coach. But as a dog, he's been great, especially at covering. seven to four against his spread and this exact spot of three and one in his own division. So,

you know, we like Dan Quinn. We like the numbers when he's back in his own division as a dog. It's just when he's a favorite, I really couldn't get over how much overrated he was. So we talked, we knew Washington was coming back down to Earth this year. Felix,

they have, but it feel like the public has totally left them for dead. Yes. Happened last week. They were hammering the Giants team. Like you just said, that number didn't budge last week. It's happening once again.

The public is hammering the opposite side of the commander's side. And it's not budge. So for both of us, I think we'd feel much better. We wake up Saturday and this number's five and a half because it's like, okay, at least some real professional money is coming and we both have the best number. But even this gets the seven, I'm still going to back this Washington team come Saturday.

All right, Washington commanders, brass ball is better the week. Look, talk about teams that as the season goes on, historically are bigger and bigger favorites. And the quarterback ends up not being as good. against the spread because of it. That has been the Kansas City Chiefs since 2018. Now Patrick Mahomes is out. Kansas City has gone from ostensibly 11.5

when he was playing against Tennessee Titans to four and a half, down to three and a half. Now it's down to three. In the contest, it's currently three and a half. So I want to have this conversation thinking about the three and a half and the three. I think there are so many issues for the Chiefs right now beyond Mahomes, right? They are missing so many offensive linemen.

And we were on the Chiefs last week. They lost that game because they couldn't protect Mahomes, obviously. But they're also down Hollywood Brown this week. Rishie Rice, will he play again? Will he play coming off the concussion? We don't know. They're already having a hard time getting any kind of explosive runs. We know the Titans.

been covering, being more competitive, I mean, all of a sudden the Titans look attractive to me. So you know what to do? People hammer the Kansas City Chief. I don't know what you went from. I'm not going to let us put in the contest regardless. Maybe if it was four and a half Tennessee, which was to me, that was where the Sharps really made their statement.

That was the sharp number. But you are betting into a bad number and what feels like a bad spot. The under still looks good. Under is 37 and a half. Like you just said, I don't know how the Chiefs are going to score. I still don't know how Tennessee is going to score. This is still a spag defense that as bad as the Chiefs have been, the defense has been pretty good, right?

It's really the offense I've disappointed this season for this Chiefs team. So I get where you're coming from Chad. You're with all the pros. They're all over it. I think the public are with you too. Like, I don't see the public betting Minsch you as a favorite in this spot. So I don't know what to do with this one. I'm happy just to avoid it if I can.

Maybe a little taste of the Titans on the Money Line. Do your thing? you want to do well your lack of support on like a really ugly dog is shocking to me the whole titans the titans of voodoo has gotten into your head it's totally in your head right now i just i don't want to be there i honestly don't want to be there with them like last week not watching a second of their game was very nice it was enjoyable right yeah to not to think that they just didn't exist with what it was good pleasure Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers.

And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, new? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it.

We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And we were thinking I'm originally calling it. one of the early names of our band

before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, people could call in and say,

Hey Jonas, and then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas

on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano and our podcast Point Game is about defying the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed.

And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have rules, in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall.

And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nash would get that thing. That man, hell get the flying. He running up the court, licking his fingers why he got the ball. Like, you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah, you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Keith Gianmanca seemed like a mild-mannered suburban dad. But secretly, he became someone else, a master of disguise who went on a crime spree. At the time, did it seem like a crazy idea? It seemed very crazy. But I felt so desperate that I felt it was the quickest, easiest way. out. Did you allow yourself to think about how it could go wrong on what that might look like? No. I didn't want to manifest that. I was trying to manifest success. Every family has its secrets. But what happens when you discover that your dad has been living a double life? That is not the look

of an innocent man. This is going to change my life and my family dynamic forever because everything that had existed prior in my reality is now untrue. Listen to Deep Cover the Family Man on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Here's something that should not be as complicated as it is, getting a racist statue removed. And here's something that should be a whole lot easier than it is, getting a new one put up in its place. As long as there's a politics of race in America, there's going to be a politics of remorse. remembering the Civil War. To get to school, I had to go down Robert Ely Boulevard.

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We contain spirit. you represent that? They are just fueling a fire that is really catching. You'll see what I mean. Listen to Rebel Spirit season two on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Jared Adano. You might know me as that loud guy who

yells out, help on the internet. Help! Somebody! But there's so much more to me than me. I'm an actor. I'm a comedian. And recently, I've become quite the helper myself. And on my new podcast, hope for hypocrite, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with my sage advice and thoughtful

solutions. Sike, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff, rant, recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to man. If I'm calling you, even if you're on your phone, let it ring twice. One ring is too scary. Oh, cream of chicken suit.

Hey, cream. Cream a chicken suit. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from Hypocrite as part of the Mike Coulthura Podcast Network available on the I-Hart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Minnesota minus three at the New York Giants. Betting the Giants plus three with Simon says. I hope everyone is bet it because this line is going to move to two and a half because it looks like the money is coming in on the Giants. Again, I don't think there are metrics to make us feel better about this one.

It's really about fading a quarterback who, until two weeks ago, people were trying to figure out what their option was going to be next year in Minnesota to replace J.J. McCarthy and how bad they must feel that they don't have Sam Donald, that they didn't have Daniel Jones, that they no longer had Kirk Cousins. and then the guy beats up on two bad defenses and the commanders and the Cowboys and all of a sudden he's a three-point road favorite. That's what we're fading here and that's why it's Simon says and that's why it'll be in the contest. Yeah, like you just nailed it.

It's such a nice spot to fade the Vikings. And we actually do have data backing it up that the Vikings in such an emotional spot, which that really was, the Vikings playing in Dallas on Sunday night last week, it's been unique this season. So teams basically playing in Dallas then on the road the next game after playing Dallas their own six against the spread this season.

And you think we're like, okay, that's not that big of a deal. That's kind of just this season in a nutshell. But it really does feel like it kind of tends to that game, right? That was such an emotional win. And you go back through a lot of Dallas's games this year. They all, for the most part, have been really close, high emotional games for a lot of these teams. So it makes sense. There are letdowns in the following games.

And, you know, the ones that dropped out to me is just this season, teams that playing Dallas, and then go on the road the next game, they're failing to cover by almost 11 points per game and that next game. Like that's not a small margin. That's a really big gap that shows there is a letdown. And, you know, the Vikings, I had a couple reach out to me. Is there really anything to dive into about the Vikings being an indoor team

now going to play outdoors in the cold? You shake your head. There actually is, Chad. Like, they're not a outdoor type of team. In December or later, they are 6 and 11 against the spread. And they've been covering by, failing to cover by five points per game in those exact spots. So it does prove out that they're not a cold weather type of team, right?

They are a dome team. And now they're going outside to play a Giants team that, you know, they've been playing in the elements. They're used to it. So that is something, another part you can take away for this Giants team. But at the end of the day, my biggest thing I'm taking away for it's just a matchup.

I think JJ is going to struggle with this type of defense the Giants have, which is a very fast front that can give him problems because we've seen that those teams you just talked about, they don't have any pass rush to get after them. And JJ looked so comfortable passing against those type of teams because he had no pressure in his face. We've seen him struggle this year. It's when he has to move outside the pocket.

The plays break down. That's when JJ struggles. So I'm back in the Giants here. And like you said, it's about the number. The number is coming down. So I'm happy to see the pros are joining me on it. It's a big split game. So the public, I think it's like 90%, 80% of the tickets right now.

We're all in the Minnesota Vikings, but 70% of the money is coming in on the Giants. So that just shows this is going to be a pros versus Joe's type of game. So I am shocked to see it's coming down, but not shocked to see it. see the pros line up on this one. It just feels like a very nice spot to back this Giants team. Well, look, the one thing we got to consider is that it's two and a half in the contest. So do we still want to play it if it's two and a half in the contest? Because that's what

it's going to be. Yeah, I mean, it's tough. Like I, I let that scare me last week with the Saints and we ate it on that one. So it's going to be a tough choice to make. I can't believe that the Minnesota Vikings are an indoor team. It just disappoints me. I think what the bills are doing. Chad, that might be your future, buddy. I know. That's what I was going to say. What the bills are doing is amazing. They're leaning into their attitude. And I'm seeing all this stuff about the bears and whether they're building in the suburbs or now they're thinking about...

Gary, Indiana. Let me tell you something. I'm already upset that the bills might build a dome stadium just so Chicago can get a Super Bowl. I get it. I get it. But like, you don't understand how much of a part of the personality of being a Bears fan and sitting outside and being an outdoor team and being built for December and what Caleb Williams calls ball weather, that's an advantage. And like all of a sudden, if the

bears build a dome, three of the four teams in their division now have domes and only Green Bay won't. It actually, it's so disappointing to me. I can't believe it. And let's not even start about Indiana. Like, obviously, I went to Indiana University. I have so many friends. who are from Indiana in college. Some of them from like Northwest Indiana, like, you know, outside, like Munster, Indiana and whatever. And they would say to me, I live closer to Chicago than you do. And they try to claim that they're from Chicago.

I'm like, dude, you're from fucking Indiana. So if the bears go to Indiana, I am just going to be, they're losing all their character. You build a dome stadium in Indiana. You might as well be the Colts. now it would be not only embarrassing as an organization but like you said that's such a part of the city the culture just the whole area being a bear weather just like like you like when i thought there was even a chance of the bills but in a dome stadium i literally got sick to my stomach i feel the same way

thinking about the bears and it's just it's the underlying problem of this country at the end of the day it's all about the money all about i hate it's so upsetting yeah it's so So there's no culture left. There's no character left. Character is the person you put on the dollar bill. It's just upsetting. I was going to talk about the Jets, but I don't even want to. There's nothing to say.

No. Yeah, like I'm still on the Jets, but I'm with you. It's like a bet that I feel like I have to make, but everyone knows my position. I'm all in on Shuck. I've basically hit up every family member of my family and being like, hey, if this guy hits, I'll buy you something nice coming in January.

Like, that's how all in I am, just because I want to get as much good vibes I came behind this kid, and I think social media's coming a long way. I rarely saw posts about him. Now it feels like every day I'm seeing stuff pop up of these like YouTube commentators or whatever, just talking about how good he's looked

and how, you know, like I've talked about, he came and he won two straight divisional games on a Saints team that was just left for dead. So the shuck hype, I don't need to keep hyping up anymore. It's going global now, Chad. We're getting there. It's global. Buffalo at Cleveland.

Back in the day, look, we auto played Cleveland at home. 10 point underdog, even a few weeks ago against the Titans. We would have not hesitated on this one. But then you made all these points about how bad the defense has been playing, the way they looked against the Titans at home. They've got an offensive line that is decimated. So now they've got a quarterback.

I don't know how they're going to score enough points. Like if Buffalo scores a touchdown and two field goals, they win this game. And it worries me betting on this offense to try to find a way to cover the back door when I don't know if they're going to be able to. So let's lose money on the Bears then. I mean, not Bears.

The bills then, Chad. That's the move. The move is for us to back the bills. We knew there's something off with this line because we should love it. And I'm like you. Like as soon as I saw this one, it's like, what am I missing here?

And a game that obviously I want to dive in the numbers on just because when you do think of Josh Allen this spot, I remember the back of mind thinking, well, isn't this the type of team that Josh Allen does beat up on? because he wouldn't overlook such a great defense like the special defense with Mild Garrett. And shout out to our guy, Evan Abrams.

He had some amazing stats about this exact spot. So when Josh Allen plays a defense that is allowing less than 20 points per game, Allen in his career, 28 and 9 against the spread. No. Yeah. And when he's facing a team that allows more than 28 points per game, Josh Allen is 8 and 11 in his career against the spread. So how bizarre is that?

He doesn't cover against teams that give up a, ton of points, but teams that are very stingy defensively, he is unbelievable against them. That's crazy. It's the best market of any quarterback since 03. So like, it's a huge outlier, but we always talk about Josh Allen, that guy where it's like, you find this type of stats, lean into it. I'm not going to fight it here. Like, I wanted to be on the Browns, but once I saw that stat, it's like, okay, he tends

to show up. And even more, there are even more crazy numbers. So since 2010, the bills have been listed against the Browns, five meetings. They're five and no straight up. in those games winning by more than seven. The, you know, the Browns are a big home dog. So, you know, we've seen home dogs this year covering, right? I think they're 11 and 6 against the spread these big home dogs.

So it's like, okay, maybe we need to lean into it and just blindly bet the home dog, which is what mean Chad usually want to do. But when I saw those Josh Allen numbers, it's like, okay, this guy blows up these really bad teams. And, you know, is there a letdown after playing New England? No, Josh Allen on the road after facing New England Patriots. he is 10 and 5 against his spread against outside divisional opponents. So plays divisional teams. You think they'll be a let down the following game.

There isn't. He's 10 and 5 against the spread. Those exact games covered by almost four points per game. So a lot of just underlying numbers that like us. And we already talked like the bills. And what we already talked about the biggest one that jumped out to me is the bill's top three, top two, whatever you want to put them as best running team in football.

This Brown's team has struggled against their run these last couple of weeks. And that's what's really jumped out to me is that. that was what they were so dominant at. They were so great against the run, and their secondary we talked about is really good. So it was like, okay, that's why their Browns were stealing these games really in the year. Teams kind of run against them.

They had to pass, and that's what the Browns wanted you to do because they're going to get you to turn the ball over. So looking at this matchup, I think, you know, Cook might have 13 rushing touchdown. Josh Allen would have 12 rushing touchdowns. It's like, this is the juggernaut of a rushing team.

They just, once they get into the red area, the red zone, they just score rushing touchdowns. And the Browns have struggled in that exact spot. it feels like this is actually a bills. I can't believe it bills minus 10. I am shocked. I know. I'm shocked only because I'm happy about it.

Because I didn't want to bet the Browns. And even when we lose, at least we'll be like, well, at least we lost on Josh Allen. I don't know. Right. George Sanders.

I mean, I can't do it. I can't. That's why I said historically this would have been an auto play. And we haven't done it. And there's something that's holding us back. And I think you just nailed it. So that 28-9 stats, crazy.

I kind of like the idea of having the bills as a big favorite on the road against the Browns in the contest for us. It feels very contrarian. Yeah, I mean, it'll be 10 and a half, but I wouldn't mind having that discussion someday more. And I bet it as soon as I saw those numbers, it's like, all right, I'll take a position.

Because Hard Rock, there's only one other book out of the 10. So if you want the 10, unfortunately for you, if you don't have a hard rock, you're probably not going to find it. And most other books have already moved at 10. and a half. So it'll be interesting if the pros do bet it down. I just think I don't know how many pros are going to be taking big stance here

with Shador Sanders in this defense that might have given up on the season. Yep. Jacksonville plus three at Denver. No team in the NFL has been luckier than one of the teams playing in this contest. Simon, which team has been the luckiest team? I mean, I know I want to say Jags, but Denver, we feel like Denver's been pretty lucky. Denver Broncos.

Denver Broncos were losing that game against the Packers. If Micah Parsons doesn't go out, if their offensive line talent doesn't go out, if Christian Watson doesn't go out. Teams that are on an 11-game winning streak, 14, 36 and 2 against spread in the following game after the 11th game. All the talk about Liam Cohn and Trevor Lawrence,

to me, don't forget, and I've said this for the past four weeks, The difference in this offense has been Jacoby Myers, giving them that possession type receiver who can run the routes across the field. Like, that's the guy that has been missing. I'm a little nervous back into Trevor Lawrence that coming off of a career game when the vibes are so good on the road in altitude against this defense. But it's a big number for a game and a team that against the Broncos has been winning those one score games in the way. they lost them, there's got to be some aggression coming. Yeah, and I couldn't believe that I like, even like the Jaguars.

Most pros I've talked to, they're like Denver or they're just avoiding this game. I think it's what the public sediment is, right? It's how can you trust Trevor Lawrence on the road, possibly in the cold in this spot against a Denver's defense that, what, they have 58 sacks this season? They've been absolutely dominant. Yes. Defense, obviously. And, you know, Bo Nix, that was an incredible game.

Like you said, that there is a world where maybe, yes, Green Bay does win it. But Bo Nick's playing that way. They're going to be a really tough team to beat when he's playing at that type of level, right? He's just so good moving outside the pocket and throwing the ball down field. But we've seen him dirt plenty of balls into the grass, right? We've seen it when those outs of the pocket rollouts are not hitting. And to me, the biggest difference here is what I've talked about. Like, I feel like the Jags have a legit run game.

And on the flip side, Denver, you know, Harvey's tried his best, but, you know, they lose JK Dobbins. The run game has not been the same to me for this Denver's team. And, you know, Jaguars quietly had one of the best defenses in all of football. I don't believe they've given up even a hundred-yard carrier this season. Like, teams have not been to run the ball against this Jags team, which makes sense, right? They've had tons of years here draft to the top of the draft. I've just been drafting DeLyman. And it's worked out.

Like, they are really stout against the run. And, you know, looking at all the trends and everything like that, the first one I want to go to is, how is Bo Nicks off that type of game, you know, a game where he throws three touchdowns, touchdowns, no interceptions. He looks so incredible. It's a very small sample, right? He's had a very small NFL career. He's three and four straight up against a spread in the following game after that type of performance. Okay, not much to take away from it. I just wanted to give that out there what he's like after having such an incredible performance. The Jags on the flip side, they've been really impressive with Trevor Lawrence off of those type of wins. Doesn't matter

who that coach is in his whole career, he's been great when you back him after those type of wins. and just going through the numbers when he goes off a win that each team wins by more than 10 points or more in his career the following game he's 10.04 against the spread Trevor Lawrence, which again, small sample, but that was really impressive to me. The biggest one too is the fact that they scored 48 points

this Jaguar team. It's like, okay, that's an insane amount of points. You expect teams that naturally have letdowns after those type of games. Since 2000, teams that scored 48 points in the previous game, November or later, 59-42 against the spread. So, wow. Yeah, a shockingly auto play type of spot for these type of teams where it just shows maybe early in the year it's kind of fluky, November or later, this is who you are.

Like your offense, doesn't matter if you're playing the shitty teams, you're legit. Like you put up those type of numbers where they have that much film on you. It's really impressive. We've been, you know, beating the bunch of how impressive we've been with Liam Cohn. But it's really a Trevor Lawrence stat. Like the fact that he, these last few weeks, I know it's not great teams, but he's been playing really good ball. So, you know, I might be stepping right into a chat. I know that I'm back in Trevor Lawrence on the road here

against a really great Denver defense. But I'm interested to see how this Denver team does. I do think this Jaguar team, just by the general public too, is being underrated. I mean, Puka, speaking of Puka, I saw a clip of him, another clip of him saying, who's the biggest flawed team in the AFC? First team popped up. Second in Jaguars. He's like, they are frauds.

They're going to get rolled in round one. So not even the general public thinks the Jags are frauds. His own peers in the league do not believe in this Jaguars team. So, you know, interesting number. I thought today we'd have three and a half because I thought the pros would come in and have you on this Denver team. It's either them and dip with their toes on a little bit on Denver. They've been avoiding it. So this number is not budge.

So I am confident this Jaguars team, but for contests play for us, I would know for two and a half. It has to be three and a half. Well, the contest, it is three and a half. So I would like that in now and just in case because I, I mean, issue with the pros do for us. I could see this being two and a half by kickoff. I do see professional money coming to the Jaguars team. Las Vegas Raiders are minus our plus 14 against the Houston Saxons. Simon, this is the by low, sell high spot of the year. Oh my God. Okay. What do we do when a team gets shut out? What do we do the next week? I know what I do. I don't know what you do. What do you

do? We bet on the team that got shut out. Good man. So the Las Vegas Raiders at plus 14 and a half in the contest, we got to put them in. I don't know. If we can't find a fifth one, we can do it. But we're simply betting this because of the trends and the numbers. And just.

I got news for you, buddy. We're not going to find a fifth one. I don't know. We might. I have the games I like. I'm just lukewarm on them right now because it's just, it's such funky lines. I feel like this is the most threes we've had all season.

Like there's just six games. were just, there's hanging threes. And it's like, I just don't know what to do with them. But this game here, like you said, the trends, obviously they love this Raiders team. Like you already gave out that one. They got shut out the previous week before this season team. They got shut out the week before. 6 and 0 against the spread.

You know, it's a great lazy stat like we talk about. We love those type of stats. And the team that fits out of description this week is the Raiders in Cincinnati. And one team's lines move three points. The Raiders line has moved the other way. for three points, right? I think it was 11 or 11.5. Now it is 14, 14 and a half. And it's a unique spot, right? This Texan team, like you said, they are a juggernaut. Their last loss was a game we bet them on, right? The game they should have won against Denver

and CJ got knocked out of since then. They've won six straight. And since CJ's come back, I mean, last week, that was, to me, CJ's best game this season. That looked like CJ from rookie year. Just incredibly disciplined, downfield throws right on target, just in total, total unison in, you know, the underlying numbers here. Let's dive into it. Six-game win street for Texans. Teams is the exact spot. They're 11 and 16 against the spread since 2003.

When they are double-digit favorites in this exact spot, they are two and seven against the spread. So a very unique rare spot where, like Chad just said, the numbers, they're telling you, you're supposed to back the Raiders here. And I can't believe we're going to do it. I can't believe I'm agreeing with you, but I bet the Raiders.

I've taken the numbers, and it doesn't matter to me if it's Kenny Pickett. I know he looked horrible against the Eagles, obviously, last week, but even as bad as he looked, him and Gino Smith, there truly is no difference. Like, it really there is not. So we'll see who the quarterback is, Chad, and maybe that will dictate our decision.

But I have no problem locking the center 14 and a half. And if it is Gino and it drops down to 13 or 12, at least we have good value. We can lie to ourselves. We have to keep them in there. But I'm just scared because I just don't trust this Raiders team right now. Just I think I saw some crazy stat They had been shut out three times in the previous like 40 years

They've been shut out twice this season So it's like it's just all negative and you know We talk all the time one bad GM eight years ago Can seek your organization for the next 20 years We're living it with Maydock and Gruden Just TV figures brought into an organization That have just derailed and train wrecked this team in so many different ways So yeah it's it's bad bad right now for this Raiders team

Go Raiders plus 14 and a half. New England, this was Chad's choice. The money's moving it in the direction of the Patriots. It was three. It's now two and a half. We can get it three and a half in the contest, so we might want to lock that in as well. We're bouncing on a Mike Vrable,

we're betting on a Mike Vrable bounce back here. I know there's trends that say the Ravens are getting a little bit better, and you could look at what happened this past weekend. in a big win against the Bengals and say Lamar Jackson started to look a little bit more comfortable. Obviously, they've got to win out in order to keep up with the Steelers and then beat the Steelers in the final week of the season

to make the playoffs. But, and you can make all the cases about how bad the quarterbacks have been that the Patriots have played and they just played a MVP candidate and blew up a blue, or blue a 21-point lead. So now they're going to,

on the road of Baltimore. Tough spot to play. But the money's moving the line in the favor of the Patriots. And I think that's why we're playing them. Yeah. And like you said, it's the only thing that scares me about this spot is just our bias

to Lamar Jackson because it's there. We've had, what, five, six years of him in this exact spot where he dominates. And that's what makes him so special and unique. Like he is another quarterback. Like I talked about that McVeigh stat about being in December, how Dominia is. Lamar is the same guy. Like Lamar in his career, weeks 15 and 16, 60 and no straight up in his career.

He's never lost in these two weeks. So that just shows why he's been the MVP multiple times and why, you know, I love shit on the guy for his playoff letdowns because it's like this. It's like, dude, how are you so dominant in one of the toughest months? And then just coilet eggs come January. So the data, I try to dive into a find of some nuggets to give me some hope. this Patriots team. It's hard because it's what we've talked about, right?

It's a new young team. May has not been in this scenario, right? He's not played legit playoff games. And that last game felt like the first legit playoff game he played. Great in the first half, totally in his own head, no showed us in the second half. He just was totally out of rhythm, never got into a rhythm that second half. And he got lucky Trivion and Henderson saved, kind of saved the day, right? Had the couple huge runs that kept them in the game.

But Drake, on third down, I don't know about you, but watch that Bill's game. I wanted to be passing on third downs. I was like, he's not to complete these. This kid is not ready for this moment. This is going to be the ultimate test for him. And it really, to me, it's not so much a bet on him. It's really a bet on Vrable, which we've been talking about all season. Anytime I practice Patriots team, it's like, is this a variable spot?

And, you know, Vrable in this exact spot. So coming off a really bad loss in his career, right? This is just his career, Vrable, 2418, awful loss as a head coach of the Patriots or the Titans. So it's pretty impressive. This season, he's two and no straight up. I guess it's spread off a loss of the season. Obviously, they haven't lost much this season. But he tends to get his guys ready to bounce back in this game.

And, you know, Lamar, like I gave you that stat how incredibly he's been. You know, he used to be dominant in night games. He was incredible. I think before this season he's 20 and 5 in night games coming to this season. This year he's one and three straight up in night games. So like we always talk about these. Eventually, these stats start going the other way. And that's why I think we're backing on here.

Because I don't see it. I think the Patriots are honestly a better team, more complete team, this Ravens team. And the only thing for me that gives me pause is the Ravens have the pedigree, right? They've been there before. They've been in these spots. So really love unique spot, love this number. And yeah, Hard Rock has two and a half. Every other book is still a three for the Patriots.

So like Chad said, if you can go get the Patriots now, I'm with you. I think the pros come in back to Patriots and bet this number down. So three is such a key number. I want people to get it before it does move to two and a half. All right. So what am I missing? Right now. If you're talking about a Dallas Cowboys.

Well, the number moved. And so, you know, that scared you, that scares you off, that one point movement? I don't know. I guess so a little bit. I didn't have a right read on this one. I just was going to blindly bet this Chargers side. I just felt like it's a Chargers kind of spot to back them and the fact that they're a dog. People still aren't sure about Herbert his injury.

I mean, people are talking about Herbert as if he should be the MVP in a game where I think he scored 19 against the Eagles and 16 against the Chiefs. It's just we live in a very bizarre time. There's never been dumber people speaking in our microphones, and that's the damn truth. Yeah, it's like looking in the mirror, man. Yeah, seriously, though. I looked at this matchup,

and I just wanted to find, okay, are there any of these trends here that can maybe make me flip to this DAC side? And there are some really good trends of backup DAC. In 19 games, in his career, when he's on a homestead, which is back-to-back home games, DAC in this exact spot,

he's 15 and 4 straight up. 11 and 8 against the spread. His last 15 games in this exact spot. So back to back homestead, he's 13 and 2 straight up. So if you want to be like Chad and you are worried about the number. Yeah, the one and a half is if you can get it, that obviously is way better in that type of scenario. Because say the juice on the one and a half is minus 120,

you probably can just take the money line from minus 130. And that's probably where you want to be with DAC in this exact matchup. Because like you said, the movement, maybe it does scary because this is a charger backdoor type of game, but I don't know if the Chargers offense can keep up with this Dallas offense. And that's my policy here. It's like their defense needed, what was the five takeaways against the Eagles to win that game where I think the Eagles may put up 16 in the flip side. The Chiefs put up 13 points and they were dysfunctional, but they were moving the ball. Like there are ways to move the ball against this Chargers team. I think this might be the exact

matchup for this Cowboys team to get it right. So since, you know, 20, 22, Dallas, when they're on their homestead, playing against a team that is above 500, DAC 3 and 0 in this exact spot. So, you know, once again, I'm trying to find stuff to get off this Cowboys team, but it just seems like all the numbers. The pros are right, right? The pros came in heavy on this one. I didn't really understand it.

I thought this was the Chargers side, but the underlying numbers back it up and offensively, you know, I hate to say they're the more desperate team here, but the Chargers got their big wins, right? that was emotional against the Eagles and a huge emotional win against the Chiefs. You expect them to have a letdown spot against a Dallas team that just got embarrassed in a prime time game. So this feels like another pros versus Joe's pros all over the Cowboys team. The public, they will be hammering this Chargers team. So yeah, I'm with you, Chad.

I've come to the other side of this Cowboys team. I'll give you full credit because I just did not see it. I think you might have even mentioned Sunday night. I totally miss this one. And I'm chasing the number now. All right. Well, I'll put it on the list. the last one that I forgot to mention

that like is still interesting to me is Arizona as a two and a half point dog at Atlanta didn't come up in sharp calls like I like it basically because of the number in the spot I don't want to bet Atlanta as a road favorite but are we blind to our love for Jacoby Brissette because we thought he was the better quarterback for this offense in limited

opportunities before he got the job. And then he did, and we bet into him and we won a couple of times. But then we got killed a couple times. Where do we stand right now on this? I still lean Arizona. It's going to be two and a half all the way across the board. I'd almost rather bet him on the money line and just take a flyer. Yeah, it's another game where I honestly didn't have a penny on it because I was waiting

to see where the number is going to go. And it did go up. Like you can't get the three now in Arizona if you want to get it. And I did take a position once I did get to the three. And I'll hit you with all the numbers. We knew all these numbers are going to be terrible on this Falcons team, right? Especially after a win. The Falcons, all right, let's get into it.

So after a straight up win since 2019, they are 11, 24, and 1 against the spread after a win, including one in three against the spread this season. All right, what's Kirk Cousins after a win? Kirk Cousins in his career. Again, think about how good Kirk used to be. Now he's washed up and kind of terrible. He was 33, 46 against the spread in his first. career. So he's not good after straight up wins either. Not just not even even Elena's

terrible. Kurt Cousins just as bad. Every other underlying number, Chad, this Arizona team is atrocious. There is nothing I can give to you to sell you on this team. Really, their defensive numbers horrible. Their pass rush, terrible. So Kirk should be able to pick this defense apart. Our only hope is, you know, Jacoby percent against bad defenses has been pushing the ball downfield. He's actually not that good though. Like a lot of his numbers are just straight junk time numbers. So I have other games I want to talk about, so I'm happy to avoid this one. But I'm glad you're not strongly like, hey, we need to hammer this Arizona one. Because I would have to support you because I am on Arizona.

But my God, if we can avoid this one like Tennessee, I'm happy. Now, I feel like we got some games that we feel pretty good about. But if I'm missing something, tell me what I'm shocked. Just a couple of games that you skipped. I'm shocked. You skipped the Carolina Panther game. Are you wavering on that one a little bit? A little bit.

Yeah. Although it is three and a half in the contest. Right. And I, once again, I'm shocked the public and the professionals alike have come in so heavy on this Tampa team where, I mean, I joked about it, but like the Panthers got, they got screwed last week. I mean, they got bamboozled. Like that hit on Shuck, the clock should have ran out. That should have been an overtime game where the Panthers, yes, they did blow that game. But they're being priced as if they just, they got sure to beat or dominated by that Saints team. And I feel like it's gone too far. the Panthers have been good to us this season. Like we've been backing them in certain spots and fade them in others. And of course. This is the exact spot where we're supposed to back this Panthers.

That's why I'm just shocked. Kevin brought up where they lost last week. This season, Panthers, after a loss, they are 6'0 against the spread this season. So it's like we've seen it time and time again. The public fades them. The number moves too much and they become a value.

And you just said it three and a half in the contest, that's a value. This Bucks team, they are better, no doubt. They haven't worked a complete offense. Even when everything was rolling this season, it was always Baker coming from behind and them covering by a couple points, right? And I was really shocked to see this number.

Again, another, everyone Abram's number, just an amazing number here. Since Week 7, Baker, he's 36 of 38 quarterbacks in the NFL of EPA per play. Look, we know he's been struggling. He's been struggling in the offense. has been struggling. We're trying to reconcile. Is the offense going to be better now that everybody is back? Obviously, he didn't have anybody in that window other than a Mecca, Buka.

Now he's got Buckees driving back. He's got Mike Evans back. He's got Chris Godwin back. Your offensive line is getting healthier. But they still haven't looked very good. But it was the defense that blew that game against the Falcons. Mostly, Baker did throw a bad pick. But it was the defense that blew that game.

Flipside, Panthers. Bryce Young, best quarterback in terms of wins, comeback wins in the fourth quarter and overtime since 2023, 11 comeback wins. So now he's an underdog and you know that's how they like to play. We talked about this on Tuesday. I love Bryce in this spot. But I saw all the professional money coming in on the box

and it just sort of scared me off my spot. the pros I talk, do not, and I'm calling lazy pros, but they're, some of the pros I talk that they simply play. They don't even look at any type of research. They're simply playing in certain spots. And this one here is they just don't think the books can keep not covering, right? It's a lazy bet, but it's six straight weeks that books have not covered. It would be, if they don't cover here, it would be their longest non-covering streak since 1982. So I guess these guys are just betting on straight up on the better team and the laws of averages. But I think the bucks are who they are.

And I think they're not reacting too much to it of. They are a good team, but they don't have the defense to really roll and blow out teams, let alone be a three, three and a half now in our contest point favorite on the road in a divisional game here. So, you know, I get it. This game obviously means much more to this Panthers team because the Bucks basically, they can lose this game. But if they win their next two, they still win the division, regardless of what the Panthers do here. So it's a unique spot.

And I just have one more game I want to talk about that. We didn't mention. Sorry, Matt, Mitchell. It's that Lions. Pittsburgh game. What the hell are we doing with this game, Chad? I am so flabberg after by this game. Well, look, it feels like the classic Steelers spot.

We should be backing the Steelers. The Lions do not deserve to be six and a half, seven point favorites in this game. It doesn't make any sense. They're not good enough to be doing that. It feels like a line from two years ago or last year. Yeah. And but is there so much hype now,

the Steelers that all of a sudden becomes the public side because of what they've done, because they've continued to win, because now they are leading the division, because everyone is starting to get excited about Aaron Rogers. I'm just sort of like you want to bet the Mike Tomlin and Rahra spot, all of that stuff. I don't feel the need to put it in the contest because I feel like we got a lot of other options. like Carolina, Dallas, New England, Las Vegas, the Jags, Buffalo, the Giants. Like, we got a lot of games that we feel better about. So talk me into putting Pittsburgh on the list.

That's why I didn't want to blindside. I flipped. I am on the lines. I told you, I wanted to be on Pittsburgh. And I was just like, maybe I'm overreacting too much what you just said. I'm giving too much credit probably to Aaron Rogers. and this is going to be a track meet. This is going to be a track meet.

We know this Pittsburgh defense is suspect. They are not that good, let alone indoors. Like this is a bad spot to back them. And I was like, okay, I'm missing this because I really wanted to be on Pittsburgh. And, you know, even look at the Tomlin numbers, him as a big dog, actually pretty terrible. Like, you don't want to be backing Tomlin as a big underdog in his career. As a seven plus point dog in his career, Tomlin, three and 15 straight up, seven and ten against the spread. So he's actually struggling this exact spot.

The big one that jumped out to me, I know I already said that a lot of these, you know, Dan Campbell and Jared Gough stats are Ben Johnson stats. This one to me is the biggest Ben Johnson stat that I could find from their previous history together. I told you, I thought we were dead in that Rams game for a good reason

because I knew there was something insane about that. The Lions just don't seem to blow this type of games. The Lions had not blown a 10-point lead in almost three years. So in those three years in that exact spot when they were leading by 10 plus points, there were 21 and 0 straight up. Their only loss, you will remember this one well.

NFC title game. Yes, against the 49ers in the playoffs. And I was like, man, I remember that. Like that, you know, they took out Montgomery, put Gibbs and Gibbs had a bad fumble and bang, bang. I think two touchdowns in a row by the 49ers, that game was totally flipped. So, you know, it's historically a,

a unique spot to back Dan Campbell. Like we've talked about it off a straight-up loss. Dan Campbell and Jerry Golf, 23 and 9 against the spread. Even more insane since 2022 in this exact spot. They are 14-1 against the spread. And, you know, I look all the time. It's like, okay, well, how's Dan Campbell been as a head coach

when they blow a seven-point lead? Like, that's a lot to ask your team that bounce back from. He is 9-5 straight-up, 11-3 against a spread in this exact spot. So I just want you to be on it. It's six and a half right now in our contest. I bet the six and a half of the Lions team. I thought the number should be four, four and a half. That's why Model thinks as well.

And I think both of us are what we're reacting, that this Lions team, they're not as bad as I'm perceiving them to be. Like they actually are a really good, high-powered offense. I think they're number one and number two in total yards this season, even what Dan Campbell take on our offensively. It's been the defense that's held them back all season. So to me, match-up-wise, as good as Rogers looked in that last game,

I think there are ways for this team to attack them, especially that defensive front to give the Rogers some problems where Miami, they have no real pass rush. We thought Miami is bad as Miami is defensively coming to the year. That was like the worst secondary in all football. And as much injuries as this Detroit team has had, they still, they play hard for Campbell.

They hit hard. They know that they're just going to run tons of zones here. And that's, you know, what you expect, Rogers be able to pick apart. But we've seen it. Rogers, these last few weeks he's been pushing the ball down field.

He's actually struggled against certain type of zones this season. So to me, this feels like it's going to be a game. It's going to be a lot of points. And I don't see the Steelers keeping up with the chat. So I just wanted to bring it up just in case I don't blind. I said you come Sunday for my love with this line. It's on the list.

It's on the list. We've added it to the list. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. You want to know where I bet on sports during the holiday season? It's Hard Rock Bet. Not just because it's the presenting sponsor of our show, but because they make it easy to bet on. My favorite teams, players, and leagues.

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Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts are out there. But this one's extra special.

So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And, well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas.

And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast Point Game is about Defying the Odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows. Without Luca and Austin

Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nash would get that thing. That man, hell get the flying. He running up the court, licking his fingers why he got the ball. Like, you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah. You figure it, out real quick.

Oh, yeah. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Keith Gianmanca seemed like a mild-mannered suburban dad, but secretly, he became someone else, a master of disguise who went on a crime spree. At the time, did it seem like a crazy idea? It seemed very crazy.

But I felt so desperate. that I felt it was the quickest, easiest way out. Did you allow yourself to think about how it could go wrong and what that might look like? No, I didn't want to manifest that. I was trying to manifest success. Every family has its secrets. But what happens when you discover that your dad

has been living a double life? That is not the look of an innocent man. This is going to change my life and my family dynamic forever. because everything that had existed prior in my reality is now untrue. Listen to Deep Cover the Family Man on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Here's something that should not be as complicated as it is. Getting a racist statue removed. And here's something that should be a whole lot easier than it is.

Getting a new one put up in its place. As long as there's a politics of race in America, there's going to be a politics of race. of remembering the Civil War. To get to school, I had to go down Robert Lee Boulevard. Get to the grocery store, I had to go down Jefferson Davis Parkway. If you're an historian and you leave out half of what the history is, you're not doing your job. I'm Akila Hughes.

In Rebel Spirit, Season 2 goes deep on both of those things. The fights, the politics, the people who won, and my personal campaign to add something to the Kentucky State House that's actually worth the wall space. We are more than our bodies. We contain essence. We contain spirit. How do you represent that?

They are just fueling a fire that is really catching. You'll see what I mean. Listen to Rebel Spirit Season 2 on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The story I've told myself about love or relationships can then shape my behavior, and that can lead me to sabotage the possibility of connection. This Mental Health Awareness Month, tune into the podcast deeply, deeply, well with Debbie Brown and explore the journey of healing, self-discovery, and returning to yourself. We explore higher consciousness, emotional well-being, and the practices that help you find clarity,

peace, and self-mastery in a world that can feel overwhelming. The world is becoming lonelier. We're not becoming more social and connected. We're becoming more individualized, but we actually meet people in connection. If you've been searching for a soft place to land while doing, doing the work to become whole. This podcast is for you. To hear more, listen to deeply well with Debbie Brown from the Black Effect Podcast Network

on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. All right. Yeah, buddy. Biggest bets. Pull up those pants and be a man. Biggest bets.

Honestly, because I went so hard last week, I haven't gone too crazy this week. right now my biggest early position just because they're you know Saturday games is Washington and the Packers I'm not Packers uh the Bears um I could get bigger on the ramps tonight but I just like I said I've been a little lukewarm on that I'm just maybe I'm too close to it um for the Sunday games my bigger position so far again this was early in the week I bet it with you of the Patriots um I just couldn't couldn't stop grabbing the plus three same with the Giants grabbing the plus three um for favorites you know I think I'm going to get

there on Buffalo. We'll see. Right now I'm not too heavily invested into it, but the more I look at that buffalo, I more it feels like that's a type of game, they just roll 30 to 7 or something like that. So I could get there on it. But yeah, this week, obviously nowhere near as big as last week, but definitely took them some strong positions. Your dog, your dog likes my dog. Moneyline underdog parley. Tennessee. Yeah, throw it in. Arizona. Okay. Yeah, I'll do it. New York. Giants. New England. New England.

And got to put my Jags in there. The Jazz. Oh my God. Saints are up to five and a half now. Jesus Christ. Favorites parlay. Saints? Yeah.

Lions. Sincey. People might not hear, but I do love bears. If we don't want to do bears, though, we could do... Buffalo. Yeah, take... Do adjust it. Don't do the... Minus five and a half.

Yeah. I'll do the bears. Bears and then people don't hear this and they miss that bears one. Throw in Dallas. Dallas, that's a really nice, unique spot for them to win that game out, right? I gave you all those numbers. Wow, you come around. Long way on that one.

I know. Bullion does work on certain people. All right. Sharp versus Square. Who do we got? Sharp versus Square. square um i'll do it i'll go super square give me give me the bills minus 10 wow i know i just know somehow i'm going to end up betting a ton of money to that line i just i i as soon as i saw that

that that uh josh anstad against good defense it's like my god he just rolls these type of teams all right so brass balls was washington um come on you got to do 10 Tennessee. I was just going to say I'm taking Tennessee and taking the Titans. Are you really? Yeah. Oh my God. I am. I am. All right. This has been Sharper Square. Part of the volume podcast network. We will be back on Sharper Square Sunday morning on YouTube. You can eavesdrop on a very intimate conversation. We're going to make human decisions and it's going to be miserable. We will be back later that day at 7.30-ish Sunday night. Sharper Square on YouTube. Watch or listen, Sharper Square on YouTube. Like the video, subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods,

wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you. Hey, baby. Hey, baby.

We're going to be out. Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called,

Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast. podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it, but, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.

What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm CJ Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was funny. You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis come in to him, he's like, you know I love you,

dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Therapy is fantastic. But once again, it does not have a monopoly on healing. That's why I create the resources and that's why I create the community because I really just want you

to have more access. On the podcast, cultivating her space, Dr. Dom and Terry Lomax create a space where black women can show up fully and be heard. It's tough because we're suppressing our emotions and so many of us are like high achieving individuals. Listen to cultivating her space on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Turn someday into right now with Buddy by Jake Radio, nonstop workout music and expert tips 24-7. Hey, head over to iHeart.com. Search Body by Jake Radio and stream it for free right now. Awesome help and wellness tips 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

Remember, stick to the fight. When your hardest hit, it's what things seem worse that you must not quit. Don't quit. Body by Jake Radio, where hope meets momentum. Search Body by Jake Radio and stream it for free. Have a great day. I heart radio. Your 20s can be so exciting, but they can also be really overwhelming, confusing, and honestly, just kind of lonely.

May is Mental Health Awareness Month, and the psychology of your 20s is breaking down the science behind the biggest roadblocks we face. I was six years into my career, the 80-hour weeks, and just the first one in, the last one out, and I ended up burning out. There was a large chunk of my 20s that I, like, was just so wanting to, like, be out of that phase out of my skin. And I just, like, really regret not living in the present more. You don't need to have everything figured out right now. You just need to understand yourself a little bit better. Listen to the psychology of your 20s on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.