The Hockey PDOcast - Avalanche Staying Alive, Game 5 Adjustments, and Looking Ahead to Game 6

Episode Date: May 16, 2024

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by David Castillo to break down how the Avalanche were able to extend their series against the Stars, the adjustments they made to win Game 5, and the key factors to watch for heading into Game 6. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

2015. It's the Hockey P.D.O.cast with your host, Dmitri Filipovich. Welcome to the Hockey P.D.O. cast. My name is Dimitra Filippovich. And joining me as my good buddy, David, David, what's going on, man? Hola. It's, uh, there's, there's, I was going to say not a whole lot because it's just sort of basic instinct. But no, there's a lot going on. It's not just because of the series that we're going to talk about, which has been, uh, really interested. Uh, really that's such a diplomatic way of describing, hey, Dallas should have won last night. I think they've been the better team versus some of the other series that have been

much more competitive in my opinion. But I suppose we'll get to that. Why bury the lead? Yes. Well, we're going to get into all that. We're coming off of last night, Stars, Aves game, where Colorado extended the series and stayed alive to force a game six. And the plan for today is for us to spend the next hour or so here, breaking it all down,

everything we saw, what matters, what does, and what to look forward to ahead of Game six. I also invited, I should say, I invited our pal, Sean Shapiro to join us as well here, because I thought it'll be fun if we did a three-man pod to kind of just break it all down. And instead of turning into a party, he turned us down because he's a true hockey guy and he said he was busy golfing. And so he kind of flexed on us and big-timed us by not joining us. It's just you and I, but that's fine, because every time the two of us get together, we always have a really fun, deep conversation. So I'm looking forward to it. Let's get into it. So how do you think the stars, let's start off with this? How do you think the stars feel and Pete DeBlor in particular after that game?

Because I agree with you that in the aggregate, even before the news came out before game four, the Valen-chuskin was going to be out and was going into the player assistance program, and even the Devon Taves was going to miss game four with an illness. I thought that was, you know, it certainly affected Colorado's performance in that game, particularly off the top where Dallas just got to jump on them. And I believe the shots were 20 to 4 at one point. and it was just one-sided, as you're going to see, between these two teams. And certainly, you know, I think that's a very valid excuse and that certainly impacted that.

I think it was a bit of a red herring because even before that, there had been kind of a pattern established by Dallas really taking control of the series, in particular what they did towards the latter stages of game three, where they put Colorado in a bind, even when they were at full health, unlike anything I've ever really seen anyone do to them in their full form the way they were. And so the pattern had been kind of established, yet at the same time in that game five, there's a lot of moving parts there. But whenever you kind of allow a team like Colorado that's as dangerous as they are offensively

to show signs of life, to have their top players perform the way they did as that game went along, even though you're still in a good position from the stars perspective of being up three, two, I think there's an understandable feeling of like you're playing with fire here because these guys, are so good that if you give them any two-game sample, regardless of how well you play as a team, they can just take over and do what they did in game five. Yeah, but the way, Sean and I have beef. That's why he didn't want to come on the show. I just want to clarify that.

I'm getting as far as I know. But, no, like, I, it's, I'm definitely of two minds because I do feel like Dallas is, broadly speaking, been a better team. But also, kind of like you said. It's you cannot, again, we go back to this tension between process and outcome, like, no matter how good your process is for Dallas, which, to be fair, you know, I think this last game was kind of a function of, well, you know, Jake Oddinger letting in a pretty soft goal. I mean, for the most part, that's kind of all they need. Just one or two breakdowns. And essentially, they're kind of back in the series because now, you know, they go into sort of Colorado, where they haven't been.

great, but historically have been great. Dallas has just been the one to kind of sort of break that down. But, you know, for me, the thing about Dallas's Hanlon of McKinnon, and I think this still holds true. I think this even held true last night is that there's largely no mitigating factors. Like, there's no convenient little asterisk to explain away McKinnon's broad silence, again, broadly speaking, whether injuries, line mates, or lack of relative. Relative. to his standards, right? Yes, yes, relative. And so while this is largely

been like a team effort, to me, one thing that really stands out is Dallas's containment of McKinnon in cutting off passing lanes. Rather than focus on cutting off his first step, they've really focused on cutting off his first option. And I've been working on some film room analysis.

And one of the things that's standing out beyond just kind of the obvious is Dallas preventing that low to high movement. Colorado was fifth in the league in successful low to high passes whereas Dallas was second at defending those passes. So some of this was foreseeable from like a pure

statistical perspective, but not to the extent that we've seen and not so dramatically. And you're just like, I was reading out watching game three and also game five and every time McKinnon would bank the puck off the wall to the point, stars would be immediately like just pick up on it.

Like twice in the first period last night, you saw this, granted, much of this field by really excellent personnel because you have players like Wyatt Johnston and Chris Tann of doing this as opposed to whatever Winnipeg had. No offense, Winnipeg. No, I mean, you're right on that. And here's where this kind of the story of this series for me. And it's what Dallas has been able to do in how sort of diligent and discipline they've been in getting back defensively, right?

And I thought the broadcast did a really good job of kind of highlighting that or demonstrating that in that in round one, Colorado averaged 8.4 rush chances per game, which was slightly higher actually than what they had in the regular season, which was 8.0 rush chances per game, which they led the league with. In games 1 through 4 in this series, they were all the way down to 5.8. And what you would see and you'd see it perfectly played in all these McKinnon highlights is generally, I think, the common practice or what you're going to, goal is against a player like that or McDavid is to sort of cut them off early, right? It's not let them even build up speed in the neutral zone. So you kind of just like full core press them in a sense where you just have someone whenever there's a change of possession immediately kind of latch on to them and try to bump them and slow them down to give your guys a chance to catch up. What Dallas has been doing has been interesting where

they haven't necessarily been as worried about that because they've been able to consistently stay above the puck. And so what that means is they always have numbers back. And so McKinnon actually is building up speed coming out of his zone and through the neutral zone. But whenever he enters Dallas's zone, there's either at least one, but almost most times two defenders there to kind of steer him into these uncomfortable compromising positions where all of a sudden now he's not getting the middle of the ice. He's sort of in a disadvantageous position. And then he's trying to, because he's getting frustrated, kind of forcing the issue, creating turnovers and not really being able to attack the way he's accustomed to.

And I think you certainly saw that even for large stretches of game five, the concerning part from me where there was a few instances where even before the sort of clinching goal near the end of the third period, he did manage to shake free in the middle of the ice and went in alone once against Jake Onger created another chance for a Thruleck and off the rush. And so there were a few more instances of that than we really saw at any points previously in the series. And so if I repeat the bird, I was kind of going through the tape study today in between games, that would be something that I would keep coming back to and kind of hammering.

Not that the players are, you know, I think they all get that certainly as a concept, but that's kind of the difference to me in why they were able to have a bit more success in game five than they might have otherwise had previously in the series. And one thing I want to add, and this is not by any means a sort of a celebration or like Dallas figured it out. you won't ever figure out a player like Nathan McKinnon. I think you just, you contain them as best you can, and hopefully that is enough in a seven-game series.

But I do want to point out, because I feel like I'm seeing it on the tape, and I realize it's always been, analytically it's always been present in his game. But I don't know, maybe I just like, I'm just now, maybe I'm just late to the party, but I feel like this doesn't get talked enough. One of the reason why,

and it's one of the reasons why I thought Colorado had looked so exposed for the bulk of the series up until last night, which is McKinnon's lack of defense. I mean, he's not the kind of player you don't necessarily need to play defense. And this is not even like a nitpick either in the grand scheme of things. I mean, this guys want a cup. But he does see, he does look very prone, maybe more so than usual, to floating around the defensive zone, waiting for those counterstriking opportunities. And I just feel like it's been telling that players like Sam Steele, Craig Smith,

Diedonov can get out there and win shifts against the McKinn line. And it's just because McKinn is not the same player he is defensively as he is offensively. And that doesn't change how elite McKinnon is. Just that he does have a flaw. And when it's on display, it just seems to snowball in much the same way his attack relies on momentum. And you kind of, to me, it looks quite.

quite deliberate when, especially when the debt players are up against them. And they're just, hey, we're in the zone, put it on net, you know, put it in the corner, just any way for McKinnon to be deeper in the zone. Well, I think I think there's a couple factors there, right? Because I think, especially in their run to the cup two years ago that you referenced, I think you did see a certain heightened level of defensive effort and attention that he applied to the game. And I think it was easier to do that because of how deep that team was and how he, I'm sure he didn't feel like he himself had to shoulder the burden of everything they created offensively, right?

In this series, you know, in round one, we saw they got a bunch of contributions from their bottom six and supporting players. And that helped a lot. In this series, that's really kind of dried up. I think as we expected, Dallas has had the advantage from a depth perspective scoring wise. And so he's playing a ton of minutes. I'm sure he feels like he has to create everything himself. And then also with what we just said earlier about how good Dallas has been at getting numbers back, I'm sure he probably also feels like he needs to not cheat,

but maybe get a little bit of a head start coming out of the zone to try and catch them by a surprise and get a head start on their defensive structure. And so you put all that together. And I think that's kind of what you're referencing there in terms of sometimes maybe a little defensive gaffes or slipups they were seeing from them. Yeah, I think it's part of that for sure. And then it's also, what I would argue is something that Benard did in game five that he should have done earlier, which was, I don't understand. And to me, I think especially for playmakers, playmakers are never fully maximized until they're fully maximized. And I never quite understood why they just did not have Rantan with middle stat because McKinnon, for this slagest,

slight nitpicky flaw that I just kind of mentioned is just so good creates so much really is a shortcut in and of himself that you can just put more bodies even guys like Cagliano or Ross Colden up there that top line would still generate a ton and and I felt really bad for for middle stat precisely because like when I watch him yes I don't think middle stats an elite player um I but I still like that move, in part because I still see a lot of things he does really well. I mean, middle stats sort of, I mean, playmaking is kind of part of his profile, but I'm just like, what have they given him that's managed to allow him to excel? And I just did not understand why they didn't put rant in it with middle stat until game five.

just because like I just if you're going to if you're Colorado and you have any designs to beat Dallas it really feels like you need to win that depth war like the top players will cancel each other out that's going to be a tough just like what we've seen there'll be silence here and there but you know they just need a few plays to make it happen

but the depth for Colorado absolutely needs to come alive it largely hasn't and I feel like Bennar's for Ross construction has kind of been one of those obstacles It has. And they really got that middle stat line going in game five by making that adjustment. And it's the point where in the first three games, I did think you saw that playmaking shine through. They just weren't capitalizing on it. And so they weren't scoring at all. But it's still kind of unacceptable for them to have zero five-on-five goals in the first three games from that line. They kind of score the one when the game was already bit out of hand in game four. But in game five, middle stat and Ranton and played 11 five-on-five minutes together. Shots are nine-one-one. Colorado, they manufactured that huge third period goal that gave them the first lead of the series they've had. And here's a stat for you. So in 12 or sorry, in 15, 5-1-5 minutes from middle stat in game 5, the avalanche generated 12 shots on goal.

In games 1 through 4, he played 65-on-5 minutes, and they generated just 26 total shots on goal in that time, just to kind of show you the volume of how much they were creating compared to previously. And obviously giving them rant and kind of a domino effect. as well on Ranton himself because I'm not sure how much of it was it just not clicking with McKinnon, maybe some of the stuff we were referencing with the way McKinnon was playing himself. But Rantan has really not looked like himself in this series. I'm not sure if he's still kind of not 100% after that late season injury because he wasn't very good again in the Winnipeg round one series either, but he's just looked lethargic and

disengaged to my eye and Pucks have kind of been very uncharacteristically dying on a stick. And so maybe just making a change like this not only benefits. middle stat but maybe might get him going as well and that's kind of essential for Colorado if they're going to have a chance and bouncing back in the series because as much as we love McKinnon and McCar if they have just a one line especially when the Chushkin now out it just makes them so much easier to kind of stack up and defend against and now all of a sudden if middle stats lines cooking offensively then at least if you're Dallas you kind of have to contend with that and match your defensive assignments accordingly and it becomes a bit trickier yeah no it's

I feel like Middle Stad is a player that even when he wasn't producing, I felt like he was noticeable. He was pretty much the only player beyond McKinnon and to a lesser percent, Leckinin, that really seemed to kind of generate stuff against. I mean, that's something that I think was very prevalent in Dallas's series against Vegas, which is, if there's one thing Dallas doesn't do well. And I think it's held true. It held true in the Vegas series. I think it still holds true just to a lesser extent in this series,

which is Dallas's ability to defend passes. It's not they're good, but they're not as elite as you would expect. I remember one of the oddest stats from Corey's data, which is that they're 20th in defending cross-slot passes. So I feel like a player like middle stat is absolutely someone that you want to kind of really sort of highlight and let them try to kind of do their damage to the extent that you can. Because Dallas, of course, it's not going to give you much. And I think for all to talk about Dallas's blue line between Tanniv, Heiskenen,

one thing that I do think, yes, Lundell, I feel like Harley really deserves a kind of special shout out because he's kind of, I don't know if this is just a momentary thing, but reinvented himself as almost as crazy as it sounds to say like the defensive half of that high skin and pair, which is bizarre when you think about it. I mean, he doesn't have a lot of points, really any points, despite getting a lot of minutes. But I think that's really been critical to Dallas's success because if you were going to poke a hole in that top four defensively, just from a pure defensive standpoint, Harley's probably the guy, a little less experience, mainly loves to

love to kind of be a rover at times. So if you're going to crack, you know, if you're going to find that seam, attack that guy. But no, he's been one of the better defensive players on that blue line. And it's going to be difficult for Colorado to really kind of, you know,

penetrate that blue line. Unless, of course, Andres letting in more soft goals. But credit to Thomas Harley. Because, yeah, For all to talk about TANF, like Carly's been the guy that I think relative, pound for pound, relative to inexperience, is just doing such a phenomenal job defensively.

Well, here's the elephant in the room for Dallas. So we mentioned that middle stat, rant and impaired and how they finally kind of broke through and had some success in Game 5. They did the majority of their damage in a head-to-head against this kind of makeshift line that the stars put together with Hintz and Game 5 that saw Dushain, Robertson, and Pavelsky play together.

And the common theme here throughout this postseason, but particular in the series, and I know like he scored in game five. He started the scoring with that goal, finally got the monkey off his back. I do think he had some more chances in these past two games than he's had previously. At the same time, though, Joe Pabelsky throughout this run has sort of dragged down pretty much any line combination he's played with. And maybe the options are become a bit more limited. and you get back to a corner without hints available because all of a sudden then to make the top three lines work, he has to play on one of those.

But in this game, that line got out shot 8 to 3. They had a sub 30% expected goal share at 515, which has been a recurring theme for Provelsky's units. And I don't know, that's the thing I keep coming back to where if you're going to be playing him in this type of role against one of those top two lines, it seems like that's going to be a very exploitable thing for Colorado to attack.

Now, if HINS comes back, maybe you can kind of shelter that a little bit more and it becomes less of a pressing concern. But for the time being, I think if I were Jared Bednar, that's something I would certainly be hammering as much as I could, especially ahead of game six where you have the benefit of last change. You can kind of target matchups a little bit more. You know, I sometimes do wonder about kind of the nature of matchups and whether or not sort of coaches, sort of view players in that way, in the sort of in that little bit of disrespect. back like, hey, this guy is awful right now. Let's go after him. I don't know. Like, I feel like hockey is just, the hockey culture is just a little too milk toast to kind of really lean into that.

But if that's something that they do, not that these guys are all cherubs. I mean, we've seen Sam Bennett, you know, crush a guy and get nothing called in him. But that's neither here nor there. But there's really no other way to kind of, I think sort of. I can't downplay Pavlsky's, and even the assist on Pavolski's goal was something of a miracle. And to me, it's just, it kind of almost goes beyond the numbers where, like, I just feel concerned, borderline concerned about Pavellis' play because he's just not, the reaction time is not there. It's not just about, like, the speed.

It's just about a guy that there was, there was the, I think it was game four, um, wide open, makes a pass to a clean sheet of ice and it goes to the stands. Like it's not literally, but like he just, he was just almost playing a different sport and he's not a player. Obviously he's never going to be scratched, but it's hard not to think of Pavelsky doing to the top six, kind of what Sutter did to the top four on the blue line last year. And you really wonder like, well, at what point is this going to catch up to them? Because this is a shift to shift problem. If he scores a goal, at the 11th hour, that's great.

But, I mean, what are you going to do with the rest of those shifts that he's on the ice for? Yeah, game three was genuinely depressing. And I message you because you're obviously an MMA guy. You generally like to bring up the references for MMA here. But I listen to this podcast on The Ringer, and they always talk about how, especially like Tony Ferguson at this point of his career, but various other sort of veteran fighters, once you reach a certain stage and you just keep seeing them kind of get knocked out

or just look very, like a diminished physical version of what they used to be a shell of themselves. You start watching those fights through your fingers, just kind of almost expecting the worst, but hoping you won't see it, but acknowledging that it's likely. And that's what it's gotten to in this case where it's like, every time the puck hits a stick, you're just like, oh, God, what's going to happen next is this going to be some sort of a low light moment? And that's really tough because it's, you know, it's pretty recent thing. I know that as the year went along, he certainly wasn't the player he was even last year, but this is kind of reached in you hide.

And maybe it's just the fact that the postseason is entirely different animal, right? Like he's only really a beat slow at this point more so than he was before. But in NHL standards, especially in the playoffs, round two, that may as well be in eternity, right? And that's kind of what you're seeing where it's just constantly a step behind. And so that becomes kind of an unavoidable thing. And so whether it's for the rest of this series or moving forward into a conference final, I think that's something that they're going to have to come to terms with and make a difficult decision with because you really, you know, as you get to these later stages of these series,

you kind of need to optimize everything and every single little thing matters, every little edge you can find. And that's kind of the one thing I keep coming back to with the stars team where if you are going to maximize it, figuring out those minutes is probably the way you'd have to go. Yeah, I think the, I'm glad you mentioned that the sort of the, MMA because the thing that, the flip side to that, I think for, especially for Stars fans kind of looking

for silver linens and who don't want to hear about like, Praski's terrible? How dare you? Yeah, he's bad. Like it's I remember like I'm always kind of showing the synthetic goal model from from Micah Blake McCurdy to people I follow, which rates

him below a fourth liner in terms of shift to shift impact. It's significant. But I will say, in defense of Pavelsky. I keep calling it as long as he has his George Foreman, Michael Moore moment. And this is now a boxing reference. George Foreman well past his prime. He was 45 years old when he fought Michael Moore, the heavyweight champ in his prime, and Foreman knocks him out in the 10th round. The point being that in the same way, you know, the final thing, you know, that sort of Foreman for

as bad as he was and diminished still had that power, Pavelski still has his share. He was. He was shot. And for DeBoer, there needs to be a concerted effort to be like, okay, listen, he gets power play time. Like, that's enough. I mean, that's still enough to make a difference. And I don't see, like, I don't see a scenario where he's on the fourth line and is somehow worse than if he's with, I mean, like, guys like Sam Steele and Craig Smith have been fantastic. And Dallas has another player that if they wanted to put up there, they absolutely could, who I think would make a difference in Maverick Bork. This is a team that still has solid prospects on the way up.

And I'm not just saying that because I'm a Maverick-Bork stand, although maybe I am. No, I certainly agree with that. I was kind of curious because, you know, with hints out in game five, it's tough to quibble with the way Johnston, Stankovin and Ben looked. And those guys did play together a bunch when Stankovin was called up in the regular season. And they dominated their shifts from a big reason why the stars were kind of able to take control for a large stretch of the second period at 5-1-5. five, but I do think I would, depending on hints of status and we'll see what happens in game six and beyond, I'd like to see them potentially load up Robertson with Stancove and Johnston a little bit more just to see what those guys would be capable of at 5-1-5 creating offensively.

Now, that's obviously going to have sort of a trickle-down effect on the rest of the lineup and the fact that someone like Pavelsky's struggling limits your flexibility in doing so. But do you agree that you'd like to you'd like to see that tree? together and see what they could do? Or do you think that it makes sense the kind of combinations that the borough rolled with last night? I think the combinations make sense in a vacuum, and in part because you're trying to recreate exactly what defined your success throughout the regular season, which was death. So to me, like those combinations really kind of reflect that and speak to that.

However, I think that's where we get into this kind of playoffs versus regular season success and how, you know, you know what? maybe you throw, you're not necessarily throwing caution or win. Like as a team, I think you've still been broadly, the more effective squad. But that little, that sort of that just that change up to just maybe take over just that one shift, it is the kind of thing that I think would pay dividends. And the other thing too, and the other reason why I support that with just loading up Robertson with Johnston and Stancovin is also that like, well,

you know, for all to talk about Dallas's depth, there is maybe a philosophical question about whether depth versus kind of dominance is preferred, right? And whether, you know, that one line, as long as it's dominant, is just going to have a greater ripple effect than say if you're trying to kind of, I guess my point being that, well, Dallas's depth is largely not shown up, like the whole playoffs. So, I mean, we're not just, in this case, it's not just Pavelsky, but you can make an argument. And again, I think they've been effective, but in terms of production, right, just in terms of that. You know, you look at a player like Matt Duchenne, who is, I think, I think he has, he still has

shifts that you like to see shifts that make a difference, but is a player. And I don't know what the statistical profile is on Duchin in terms of like, oh, well, is he a regular season performer? You know, this is that kind of silly distinction that especially like national commentators like to make, but that I don't necessarily know. true, but maybe a little intuitive. Like, I get it. But he does look like a player that just has not adjusted at all to kind of the sort of less space in the playoffs.

And I don't know if that's like a Dushan throughout his career thing or if it's like Dushan just, you know, at this stage in his career thing. A big time over handling the puck. I would say there's been a number of instances where like I get it. It's very easy to critique after it doesn't work out to be like, oh, just get the puck on net or, you know, simplify it. Whereas when it works out and you go, you see. West or you create the extra pass or get the goalie moving and it works out.

It's like, all right, this is the way you create offense in 2024. But there's been a number of instances I can recall where he had either a direct client or a net or could have made a very simple positive play and instead overhandle it or overthought it and almost worked himself out of a scoring position and neutralized himself for no reason. And so I'm not sure how much of that is a physical thing. How much of that is a mental thing? But I think that's kind of what's been what's been hampering him so far. in a game five where all of a sudden now

he's moving up to line up, he's playing with Robertson and Pavelsky in that role against the second line that becomes a bigger issue. David, let's take a break here. And then when we come back, we'll jump right back in the conversation and keep chatting about the series. You're listening to the HockeyPedio cast streaming

on the Sports Night Radio Network. All right, we're back here on the HockeyPedio cast. Join by David Kestio. Today we're talking stars abs. David, watching, we'll talk about this series leading up to game five. I kept coming back to the point where I really wanted to, and I was hoping that we would see these two teams competing at their best at the same time, right?

We've seen flashes throughout from one side and then the other was kind of holding on for dear life and vice versa. But we hadn't really seen like a perfect distillation of when these two teams are at their best simultaneously. And I did feel like that second period last night in game five was finally that moment we were kind of waiting for, particularly that stretch from. I'd say about 15 minutes left in the second period up until Colorado's tying goal to make a 2-2 on the power play. It was exhilarating.

There were very few stoppages in play. It was going back and forth. It was highly entertaining. I think you got to see the best version of the two teams where Colorado was getting a bunch of rush chances themselves. And then you were seeing Dallas on the other side stacked together, extended offensive zone possessions and really kind of ground and pound the abs. and it made for a riveting watch, in my opinion, and I really enjoyed it. I'm not sure I'd love to give truth serum to the two coaches to see how they feel about it and how comfortable they were with that.

I think in particular with Pete DeBurr, I imagine he wasn't necessarily as big of a fan because while in the aggregate, Dallas did get the better of the play I thought. In particular, you know, they kind of just tire out and grind Colorado's defense. And then they wind up, Duante's kind of shoots the puck over the glass. as a sort of, like, last resort because they were just so gassed at that point, and then they convert on the power play right after. And so you love that from Dallas's perspective, but also when you start playing that kind of tempo and sort of trading chances back and forward, you also do get into a slippery slope where Colorado themselves gets that middle stat chance where he tries to

dangle around Auden journey, bokes it away. McKinnon sets up a second in chance. McKinnon goes in alone himself. And that's something we haven't really seen for the majority of the series, almost the entirety of the series. And Colorado finally started getting those sequences even before they started scoring. And so Dallas has been done such a good job, I think, of managing the game environments and really getting Colorado to play their preferred style. And in that sort of 10-minute stretch, while it was really fun, it also became a bit troublesome from Dallas's perspective, I think. Yeah, it's interesting because like it's such a, it's such a, it's such a, it's such a, contrast to the Vegas series, right?

I think for a while, I thought the Colorado series was kind of revealing why the Vegas matchup was maybe so much kind of tougher for Dallas, where timing beats speed, right? And Vegas' offense is hit or its offense was and is well-timed, whereas Colorado is kind of something of a sort of more of a classic attack with kind of a modern spin. And where Dallas really had to defend against Vegas's kind of five-man. movement and again, spread in the zone. Colorado is all about those spotlights. And for the most part, Dallas had done a really good job of identifying those spotlights.

Well, Game 5 was that kind of reminder that like, well, you know, your strength was tested against Vegas. Now your endurance and your legs are going to be tested against Colorado. And I sometimes kind of do worry if, not necessarily Dallas is hitting that wall, right? because there were some extenuating factors, if you will, you know, hints injured, but something more relevant, which is the whole, like, five-man rotation.

I mean, you even saw Chris Tanniff, like, take a penalty. I don't know how much of how much of that is truly going to factor into Dallas's fortunes or their potential fate, but it does feel like a gamble. And I sometimes wonder if that second period and the trading of chances, was not just that kind of function of the fact that you have just basically five defensemen that are out there at all times. And I think also, again, credit to Colorado. I do think splitting up McKinnon and Ranton really just paid dividends right away.

And it's also the kind of thing that I feel like is the place where if the avalanche do win is going to be what needs to be present, which is some of that kind of middle six coming through. And even though their bottom six has largely been kind of irrelevant, you know, they still have like players that are quite good and that have been getting chances. Between Ross Colton's physicality, Miles Wood's speed that is still given Mira Heiskin and evolve people like fits at times,

the series is by no means over. And I think if there's a broader narrative at play in terms of what Dallas needs, worry about, I think that's it. I just think that the fact that the five defender rotation, maybe not sort of maybe like coming to a head at some point, even if not now, like, I can't expect that not to be something to kind of consider in say like seven-round series of Edmonton or, you know, a series with one of like Florida or the Rangers who look like their own track to beat Carolina against all odds. Yeah, I think the tricky thing,

for us to decipher is how much of it is sort of real and meaningful and we'll carry over to game six and how much of it is sort of like the undeniable reality of how motivation in a series score line impacts an individual game like this, right? I think we all sort of acknowledge the concept of score effects within a game where you go up and then the two teams just start playing differently because motivation is different for them. And so one team starts pushing more and looks better and controls the better of the play. That's kind of what happens and we're seeing in these series as well.

Right now, every round two series is going to go at least six games. We've seen teams kind of struggle to get that fourth win and close out their opposition. And it just makes sense. Like regardless of you're playing at home, you want to finish a series because you are taxing your defensemen so much and it would be nice to get some extra rest while you wait for your Western Conference final

opponent. You're just not going to be able to artificially muster the same sort of level. as a team who acknowledges that if they don't play well and lose that night, their season's over. And so I think there is a certain element of that. But I just thought that second period was really interesting because while it was really entertaining, it kind of juxtaposing it to the rest of the series where I think Dallas by design has done such a good job of hammering down on all the details and really kind of blanketing Colorado and keeping them under wraps and sort of creating these game environments where they're managing everything so closely and they're so detail-oriented,

it kind of slipped away a little bit in that stretch. And part of it might have been them sort of smelling blood on the water and trying to emphatically close the door and then getting in trouble doing so. And I'm kind of curious to see how that trickles over into game six, whether it does bleed over or whether it was an isolated event and they get back to playing the way they did in games three and four on the road because I sort of brought it up earlier. But that third period, we should say in game three was about as impressive as defensive performance as you're going to see where they didn't surrender a single scoring chance despite holding on to a one goal lead against an offense that was as potent as Colorado's was at full force. And so that's pretty much like a very teachable thing where you go back and you look at that. It's like, all right, this is how we have to play.

Now it's easier said than done. But it does kind of comparing it to what happened in game five, you can see the visible differences. Yeah. I feel like there's definitely something to be said also. or kind of how Dallas has really kind of managed sort of this kind of game at even strength. And it doesn't really not a surprise that sort of, you know, that kind of, you know, in this case, the one game where they seemed a little bit more erratic than usual. It was also a game where, you know, Colorado got on the, you know, got on the man advantage,

took advantage despite the fact that, again, Dallas has largely done a really good job of playing the neutral zone, aggressively, you know, defended against that single drop and still kind of mostly keeping Kel McCar and Nathan McKinnon at bay. And I feel like it's, to me, I still read that second period as just kind of largely, as exciting as it was, largely kind of a freak occurrence. I still see it in just in terms of, well, I mean, hey, Colorado is, you have some elite players, and they're going to have their moments. Now, whether or not that translates into game six, I still, I just don't see it.

And this is not me like looking at, you know, the series through, you know, kind of victory green tinted glasses or anything like that. I just, I'm wondering what about Colorado's attack besides just like McKinnon and McCar being able to jail break a shift is sustainable. When I look at the middle six, you know, how sustainable is that? how sustainable is it to get this random bank pass off a stick from Zach Precii to a random bank shot, you know, into the goal off of middle stat, which granted, Audra played pretty poorly. Whereas Dallas, you know, a lot of what they're creating still feels how their defendant is sustainable, not just because of the top four, but also offense. Like these are Stankovin.

I mean, like there's just not enough that can be said about Wyatt Johnston. And I think, by the way, just on a quick note, like I'm curious if you have anything to say about the 2021 redraft, although I know you're not a draft. You asked me this last time. We've already. My thoughts have not changed. But he's, I mean, he's just what he's doing right now, especially that game four was absolutely outrageous. Like that level of dominance from a player, regardless of keeps being brought up. And I know it's easier to do so because it was on his birthday or the night before his birthday.

And so I get that. But man, like regardless of the age and kind of the context of it, just the pure performance itself was about as dominant as you can see from an individual player in a playoff setting like that. And that's one of the things that I listen. Like, Wai Johnson's not prime Patrice Bergeron or anything like that. But I do think that there's a sketch of a player that's kind of close to that. Puck Jack and Kail McCarr on the penalty kill, cashing in on his own shorthanded rebound. just sounds like some Bergeron two-way sorcery. And if I don't think there's a defenseman in the league that I would choose over

a prime Patrice Bergeron. And so players like Johnston, Stankov, and who continues to rack up chances, especially on the cycle. You know, for as much as he's been like punished physically, he's also dished out quite a bit himself. There's a play where he just knocked over Miko Ranton. So those are the things that I still feel like that's that, I mean, for as much as Dallas is just simply not going to contain Nathan McKinnon and Kail McCarr,

you know, outright, to me, the same holds true of players like Johnson, Stank Obin, Robertson, and whom are I forget it? I feel like I guess you can say like Jamie Ben. Yeah, yeah. I mean, I was going to say like Jamie Ben. I feel like he's been quiet-ish, but he's been really good on these lines with Wyatt Johnston. I want to ask you about Robertson because I remember you and I having a conversation about him last postseason kind of around that Seattle series in particular and discussing his struggles in the postseason and how it seemed like he was particularly having trouble with adjusting to the reality of how different a playoff setting is over the course of a game and over course of a series compared to a regular season where shots and opportunities just come more. freely and you can sort of kind of weave around the offensive zone and step into your shots

with reckless abandon and all of a sudden that kind of dries up in the postseason and for context in 2022 his shot rate dipped from the regular season 9.85 shots per 60 down to 7.18 last year down from 12.16 down to 9.59 and he kept kind of bumping into the same trouble spots for him. Now I think in the postseason, you're always going to have teams try to take away your bread and butter and force you to beat them in other ways. And it becomes sort of incumbent on the key players to make those adjustments and still find a way

to make an impact and contribute. And the reason I bring all that up is because I have been very impressed with despite the fact that he's not really scoring goals, how much he's changed his game around. He's become so good. Obviously, all year, he got so much better at defending and creating a positive impact there and playing off the puck, but particularly as a playmaker and a distributor, and you saw that in game

four with the cross-seem pass on the power player for the Wyatt Johnson one-timer from essentially the dress idle spot. In game five, you saw it on the pass on the two on O across the ice to Mero Haskinen, and he's gone to the spot now where he's got six primary assists in 12 games during this postseason, and he had six primary assists in 26 playoff games in those two previous runs in the years prior. And it just really stands out to me how he's not really shooting. He's not really creating chances for himself and he's not necessarily scoring, but yet he's still finding a way to make such a positive impact. And I think that's a testament to kind of how much he's grown as a player and probably the

reality of a guy who kind of had to take a few bumps along the way and figure out posies in hockey and then make those adjustments and credit to him because I think he has. I'm really curious how sort of how Robertson is going to be viewed in terms of Selke nominations, for example, because I feel like, I remember early in the year when the defensive numbers were really kind of popping off. And I thought, like, this can't be right. I mean, like, you know, hey, like good defensive numbers for a stretch, sure. But elite, just leave an earth defensive numbers for even longer. I mean, that that was something that required me to like go back to the tape and like, okay, well, what, what is he really doing? And then you watch it and you see that

I think for a lot of, it's kind of, would you rather have a hundred point forward who is questionable defensively or an 80 point forward who is excellent defensively? And I feel like I know the answer to that. I don't know that other fans might, but I feel like I know the answer to that. And to me, for Robertson, I think it's, you know, he's really, he's a player that really seem to kind of leverage that sort of playoff experience into kind of the regular season format where it just the regular season kind of almost in some ways a lot of this sort of defensive responsibility which is built on a guy that really just works hard to backcheck

and works hard to, you know, maintain possession of the puck and who doesn't cheat on his routes. I feel like that's something that he just really kind of, hey, the playoffs are more important. Let me leverage that experience into the regular season and then just hope this, these experiences continue to kind of accrue that way. I'm just kind of my final form. And I feel like that's what we're seeing with Robertson. He's not, he's definitely not going to be flashy.

And I think there are probably even some Stars fans who just feel like we're on a different planet talking about like, you know, hey, Robertson's been. pretty good because he hasn't shot as much or scored as many goals. But in terms of the details, I think Robertson has been better than he's ever looked, in my opinion. And the speed of the game, the speed of the playoffs is always going to be, I think, a kind of somewhat of an adjustment for Robertson just because of his lack of speed. But to me, like, he's been a really just fantastic three zone.

Ford for Dallas and is really like a big reason why they're in the second round and one game away from knocking off to former cup champs. Yeah, his statistical profile this postseason and how much it's changed from previous versions is honestly remarkable. I've got him down for 17 scoring chances of his own through these 12 games and 19 scoring chances set up, which is almost unheard of for him compared to where he was at last year when he was just taking. almost the entirety of them and not necessarily setting up himself. And it's gone to the point where in this series specifically, he's got seven assists, he's got six shots on goal, and he has the same number of shot attempts as Ryan Suter. Now, I would argue that's not necessarily ideal either.

I think there's probably a middle ground you want to find, and it'd be nice if he was able to shake free for a few more opportunities himself. But the fact that he hasn't, and yet he's still found a way to contribute and make a difference regardless, I think is a massive change. from last year and in the postseason prior. And that's a huge kind of development for the stars here. So I did kind of want to note that because I've gotten a few questions about his play and why he hasn't been scoring as much. Okay, let's kind of look ahead then to game six and kind of some key X factors

and things we're looking for that are going to determine how that game's played out and ultimately the result. What are you kind of looking for, whether it's stuff we saw in Game 5 or stuff we didn't and you're kind of going to be curious to see if it changes. I think for Colorado, it's going to be whether or not sort of, you know, middle stat and ranting and whether or not they can sort of,

you know, kind of maintain or build, really build something off of the last game. I think for, for Dallas, it's going to be all about, and I said like in my preview that I really felt like, for whoever this,

whoever won, it was going to come down to depth. And I feel the same way, which is, how DeBoer manages the forward lines is going to be what I'm going to want to see. Like, you know, is, for example, like, is Maverick Bork going to factor into this? Especially if we don't, because I don't know if we have an update on Sagan. So if you're looking at like Sagan and Hints both out for game six, that's a huge.

You could say huge, like, I mean, that's a major problem for Dallas or an opportunity for them to really kind of challenge that depth to see if they can. see if they can create something that that's that I think will still define the series outcome, which is, you know, Dallas, just getting those players chipping in, further pressure in Colorado's ability to sort of break through the blue line and then Ottinger. And yes, Odinger is kind of, I think, a story onto itself.

I always go back to like, I'm just, you know, it's the whole cliche, Gulton and his booty. Like, I'm not interested in analyzing Gulton. And I don't know what to say other than like, hey, flip a coin. But I mean, for the most part, I would say both Golton has been pretty good, actually. So, um, I, I, I, golden is an X factor all the time in and of itself. So. Yeah, I would say George has been really good to the point where he was pretty much the only guy on, on the abs that showed up.

He came before and kept them in it for as long as he did. Monitor's perspective, I, I kind of jinxed him because in my notes, uh, because I knew we were going to be doing this. And so through four games, I was kind of making some notes going back and rewatching them. And I had a note in there about how I thought he had done a really good job of fighting through traffic and sort of, you know, neutralizing a lot of these scrambles in front of his net where he was getting his eye on the puck and being able to the force a whistle or just kind of get in front of it. And then the avalanche finally broke through. They got the McCar screen goal. The middle stat one in the third period was a series of weird bounces. But also he clearly didn't play that well and kind of struggled with that traffic in front of.

of them. And so that was a difference compared to what we'd seen previously in the series. And that was something Colorado really leveraged against Connor Hallibuck in round one. So I think that'll be some of the watch. We should do a Neal's Lundquist update here because I should get it to be like a sponsored segment on the show. I'm not sure who the sponsor would be for it. But we bring it up enough. And I just thought that, you know, his usage is obviously a bit of a talking point just in relation to how they're leading on the other five guys. But in the games in Colorado, God bless Pete. He was using him essentially as the human victory cigar is sending him out for the final shifts. In game five, he played 77 seconds through the first like 59 minutes of the game. And then he just sent him out for the final 71 seconds to close it out. So he seems to be the closer here one way or another depending on who's up. So looking for that in game six. I guess my note here is, is Kayle McCarr. It's sort of an obvious one, right? Because he's such a he's such a game breaker. And I don't think anyone listening to this is like, wow, yeah, that's a good point. Kail Makara is going to be a player to watch here. But you just saw how

much he created in game five where I'm not sure what percentage of Colorado's offense was directly attributed to this, but I'd say a significant portion of it, particularly early on where anything they created was seemingly off of the puck coming to him on the right side, kind of near the blue line, and then him using that go-to move where he sort of steps towards the middle and fakes like he's going to go inside. He forces Dallas's forward to join him. sort of get caught leaning. And then he explodes to do what he wants to do all along, which is attack downhill towards the face off dot on his forehand.

And he took one to the net, nearly beat Anderra. And it got a couple scoring chances otherwise. And then obviously scored the goal in the third period doing so. And while it was a soft shot and Ander probably should have had it, I think it was also an accumulation of similar opportunities for him throughout the game, where he had four or five of those same plays and didn't score on him. And so it kind of felt fitting that one finally did, wind up going in for him.

And I thought he was awesome in game one. The scoring dried up in games two to four, but he really kind of stepped up in game five with the two goals, the assist. I had him down for six scoring chances. He was the best player in the ice, in my opinion. And so if he's able to have that type of monster performance, that's obviously going to impact how the rest of this series goes.

But listen, great players make great plays in these big moments. And that's exactly what he did in game five. And so I'm kind of watching to see under a heavy workload what he's able to do again. Yeah, the thing with Makar, and I think this is really kind of true, like in general, like, who is like harder to defend a Ford or a defenseman? And I would argue the defenseman just because they do their presence in all three zones is, I think, so much more layered than simply, you know, worrying about like whether Ford's going to, you know, crack a zone entry and, and, you know, where they're going to shoot from. And McCar is kind of just the ultimate, right? because it's not like, and this is one thing that I think has been true pretty much the whole series, which is that Dallas hasn't been very effective in forechecking him.

Yes, he's been quiet, hasn't scored a lot of points, but, you know, Dallas is not a particularly fast team. So when you have a player like Jason Robertson, you know, trying to, trying to catch Kail McCar, it's just, it's going to look silly. And McCar is going to, you know, I don't know what his entry data or transition data kind of looks like. I would imagine, though, Macar has been quite successful more so than most players in the series or most defenders in the series at getting out of the zone. And I remember thinking, like, that was the thing that stood out to me in game one. And when I got worried, which is, or, you know, from a Stars fan perspective, which is that, man, Dallas just didn't touch Colorado's defenders breaking out of the zone very much. They're just, and McCar leads the way.

And I think that's still been largely true. Dallas has been able to pinpoint some of the other defenders, but McCar is just not a guy you can really pressure. If anything, he's a guy that you need to maybe like give some space to, but that's also dangerous. So, yeah, I don't think it's, I don't think it's that obvious that McCar. Sure, Colorado needs its best players to be their best players. But he's,

McCar is never going to be easy to defend or shut down. And if he can build any sort of momentum like that, that's how Colorado wins. Yeah, I just feel like when he's attacking that way and creating him as much as he did in game five, they just become an entirely different animal to try to deal with and defend against. So I noted that.

But yeah, also I think the Fortrick is a great point because I do think as a series has gone along and that second period where Dallas was able to sustain some zone time, they obviously scored the first goal of a Josh Manson turnover behind the net. And I think getting to some of Colorado's defensemen enforcing turnovers is going to be a very key development as well. All right, David, this is a blast. I'm glad we got to get into this series between games five and six.

Everyone go check out David's coverage of the series and the Dallas stars on a substack and a D magazine. And we'll certainly have him on again here soon this postseason. David, keep up the great work and looking forward to chatting with you again soon. Thank you to everyone for listening to us. We'll be back soon with plenty more of the Hockey, podcast streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network.