The Hockey PDOcast - Avalanche vs. Wild, Sabres To-Do List, and Trades Before Holiday Roster Freeze

Episode Date: December 22, 2025

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Thomas Drance to talk about Sunday's Avalanche vs. Wild game and what we can take from it, what we'd like to see the Sabres do after hiring Jarmo Kekäläinen to replace Kevyn Adams as their GM, the pair of trades we saw this week before the holiday roster freeze, and why we're keeping a closer eye on the Nashville Predators. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Regressing to the mean since 2015, it's the Hockey P.D.O.Cast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the HockeyPedocast. My name is Dmitra Filippovich. And joining me, as always, on a Sunday evening, my good buddy, Thomas Trans. Tom, what's going on in? Dim coming to you live from Philadelphia? where I just watched hours and hours of football and hockey. It was a Canucks team day off this Sunday. I got in pretty early. And so that was just like, I'll watch sports all day and chill because it's been a pretty busy week,

as you can imagine, a pretty busy 10 days since the Vancouver Canucks traded Quinn Hughes, got to take a deep breath, got to watch a ton of games, including pretty scintillating Wild versus Avalanche matchup, and also just sort of look over some of my notes on Vancouver's hilarious PDO burst. I mean, this has been one of the funniest most painful road trips I've ever covered. So been having a blast in advance of the holidays.

It's going to be a fun one. We waited intentionally to go live right after the conclusion of that aforementioned Wild Avalanche game because we certainly wanted to watch such a marquee matchup and kick off today's show with some of our observations, notes, stuff we saw throughout. that one it's just one regular season game i think especially throughout the regular season i think schedule is important if you listen to a while broadcast they're noting how it was a fourth game and six nights for them obviously the second leg of a back-to-back at home this weekend in particular and so i think that certainly plays into it yet at the same time something we've been documenting

throughout this season has been the level the avalanche can ratchet their game up to when they sense they need to based on the opposition um just how intense anticipated a game it is and it was certainly a benchmark game I think for both teams competing atop the central and the abs came out as you'd expect and through their absolute apex fastball especially from like halfway through the first through the majority of the second period a couple of power players there helped but man when they're cooking like that offensively it just seems I know you love to use the term oppressive for certain defensive clubs but in this case it really feels like helpless for the other team because they just have the puck on the string

they are so good at cycling it around the offensive zone and creating looks off of that created their first goal at 5-on-5 doing exactly that and it was just a monster performance right out of the gate. I love the pushback we saw from the Wild for about a 10 minutes of staying stretch in the third period. We were actually going to start

recording early in the third because we're like this one looks like it's out of reach and we can get going and then the Wilde gave us something to chew on before we got on the airwaves here. But yeah, that was a really game. I thought Kail McCar in particular was

you know, he's always dominant. He's always great, but I thought that was next level from him. The Natius goal that he set up with that sick little interplay with Landisg and you've got him sort of coming down hill, down the right wing,

perfect pass as Natius sort of worked into space there. And, you know, it was basically right in between. Like, basically right in the middle of four wild checkers, but the panic that's induced by Kail McCar just streaking down as if he's going to go around the net and then finding him, you know, that it's, it's not like they were out of position or off even, right? Like, I don't know that the wild will look at that on video and say,

we need to do something different structurally or there was a mistake there. It's just that there's just enough panic. when Cal McCarr starts attacking downhill, that it buys NACIS a half extra second, right? Like not even a full second, a half extra, a portion of a second, that's all he needed to score the game opening goal. And then, I mean, that shot,

the Avalanche power play, not a strength for them this season sort of takes over in the second. And I thought that Brock Nelson goal to really ice it in the third, where you get that one bounce off a stanchion. And again, it's all they need. you know the idea that like they really just need absolutely nothing whatsoever to you know complete three consecutive passes and it's a pinpoint accurate shot by Brock Nelson that's game wild comeback attempt on ice yeah I think on that first goal the one thing I would say and it's obviously easier said than done because I think it came on the heels of an extended offensive zone shift and you've been out there for a while you're kind of chasing around you're tired I think decision. you're making sometimes splits, but also because of the way teams defend now, in zone,

what happened there is I think that the abs are really smart to isolate the wild defender in the sense that they got Brock Faber coming up the zone, following the forward, and then that creates that interchange where Makar comes down, the strong side, down the boards, and then all of a sudden you've got essentially a two-on-one with Kiril Kaprizov defending instead of Brock Faber stick there, and then that ultimately results in the goal, but that's the bind. They put you in with all that movement throughout the zone, not knowing where anyone's going to be at any given time.

I mean, they're just an absolute freight train. I think the shots on goal were 39 to 21, around 15 minutes left in the game when the wild started to mount. Their pushback and ultimately scored their only goal in this one. And then after that point, I thought they got some really quality looks, including when it was 3-1, off an offensive zone draw.

He was coming down the wing, sending a pass out front to Erickson-neck, which Blackwood was able to stop. But yeah, I loved all the movies. in parts here. And I thought it was particularly interesting as well. You know, the wild clearly wanted to have Eric Seneck and Boldy out there against the McKinnon line early on. And then Faber and Hughes as well. And the abs have recently reshuffle their top six a little bit, right? And kind of created this just absolute Haas checking line with Nitchushkin, Nelson, and Lekinen,

and then putting Landis Gog up now that they've kind of ramped him up as the season's gone along on that top line. And it just poses so many problems for opponents. And I don't really know what you do with this team when they're motivated like this and playing at their absolute best. I mean, the wild certainly gave it a spirited effort and made a game of it in the third. But there's only so much you can do and it just feels like this kind of offensive snowball

where they're just putting together these sequences of three, four high danger chances in a row before ultimately burying one of them. And I do think people are talking about the central affair bit, as they should be. And this idea that certainly now I want to qualify this by noting how much time I spend in online spaces chatting with or reading through commentary

from Canucks fans in the midst of coping with Quinn Hughes's departure, right? And sort of one idea is, okay, the wild added Quinn Hughes, but that doesn't mean they're going to be able to beat Dallas or Colorado. And of course, that's true. I mean, those are in some order three of the top five or six teams in the league. But I also think it's really important that we not group Dallas and with Colorado. I just think there's this Aves team based on every piece of evidence we have

is at a different level than everyone else. And then Dallas is in a more normal contender tier where they are better than just about everyone else but deserve to be spoken of differently than the avalanche. We saw another example of it. I do think also, you know, a couple things on Quinn Hughes's first week as the Wild have gone four and one, right?

and really looked great doing it. He's played a lot against Tufts. He, in the first leg of this back-to-back against the Edmonton Oilers, it was a lot of Quinn Hughes against McDavid head-to-head. Those minutes favored the wild by a pretty significant margin. And that wasn't always. I mean, we saw a lot of Carson, Susie and Tyler Myers against Connor McDavid over, for example, that playoff series in 2023.

So, or 2024, excuse me, so the wild have ratcheted up Hughes's usage from a, well, honestly, from both a minutes perspective, although they're beginning to get bodies back on the, on the blue line. So we'll see how that evolves. But from a minutes perspective, but also from a difficulty, quality of competition perspective, and shocking nobody, he's going to be great at it. that it wasn't a great game if by the underlying numbers for him against the avalanche, but we saw against the Oilers and against McDavid what this guy can do. The other part of this is I still do want to see because Quinn Hughes is such a remarkable athlete that he can play these 32-minute games, which he did on Saturday. I mean, he can play an outrageous number of minutes and remain ridiculously effective.

in like inhuman levels of usage. But I really do want to see at some point them try. Like I want to see a 20-game stretch where Quinn Hughes plays 24 to 26 minutes a night. And I just want to see it. I feel like there's a, there's, my honest theory is, I think if you were able to limit him to a more normal defensive minute loads, minutes load that you would see him be able to go full tilt a little bit more frequently on some of those shifts. And again, he's still so good, no matter how often he's playing.

But I do think it would be fun to see and I do think it would benefit his offensive game. I think we'd get a more efficient version of Quinn Hughes, as difficult as that is to imagine, given how productive he's been throughout his career. Yeah, I mean, that's stretching the third period that we noted when he was just pushing entirely for offense and just completely activating every time was really fun to watch. I'm with you on the note about kind of comparing these central teams because I think one of the bizarre storylines coming out of this first week post trade has been people sort of pushing back on it being like well did it make sense for the while to do this because it still doesn't guarantee you that

you're even going to win one round let alone two and make a long extended playoff run and then at the same time a lot of those people will probably champion the uncertainty of the playoffs and how volatile and fun they are and how anyone can make a run and beat anyone. And there's certainly no given. It's going to be an absolute gauntlet to make any sort of a run through the central. I mean, the West entirely, I'd argue at this point. But it certainly puts them in the conversation now, I think, as the as has shown, they probably need to be treated separately from a lot of these other teams that were incredibly high on.

They're up to 26, 2 and 7 now, keeping the stars at arms laying still for the one seed, which I think is important for them. Moving forward, friend of the podcast, AJ Hayfley, messaged me earlier this week, and he was sort of wistfully talking about how the abs had kind of their quality of play had come down a little bit recently. And he was like, they're playing more like a top 10 team recently as opposed to the 140 point pace team or whatever they were. And I think it's purely a motivation issue from my perspective in terms of just the 82 game grind. And when you play a team like the Predators, who we will talk about later, I'm actually pretty high on. But them or, you know, the Crackin or whoever you end up playing out east, you're probably not.

going to get your best game. You're going to know how much you need to get two points out of it. And that's what I think we're seeing. And then you get a game like this where all of a sudden you see their fastball in full display and it's absolutely exhilarating. Their offensive zone execution is just so fun to watch that 4-1 dagger by Brock Nelson you were talking about. Just be going from left point to right dot to top corner in the succession. It did was so, so nasty. And I don't know. I don't have that many more notes on the have because I feel like we've spoken about their brilliance and everything they do, I don't really know in terms of your game planning, like if you were John Hines in the Wild or even Glenn

Gullets and the Stars going into a series, certain things you could isolate. I do think with the way their defense pairs are constructed now, maybe you could even see in this game, like there's occasions where that burns Manson pair is a bit vulnerable because Manson can sometimes get a bit loose with his pinches and all of a sudden you're stretching them out in transition and maybe you can get behind them a little bit, or if you get that Gerard Malinsky pair out as the Wilde did for their own goal, you can kind of get opportunities around the net, maybe to out muscle them and get some good looks in tight. But for the most part, especially with how well their forwards are playing. And I think, you know, you've spoken about this from the other perspective of like when

you're playing against a Connor McDavid or even a Quinn Hughes or one of these top players, how that sometimes seeps into your decision making as an offensive player, because you want to be careful with the puck because you know how quickly it can wind up burning you. I think that's what happens against the abs too because the team like the wild or the stars are really good passing teams, I think. But in doing so when you have these high-end players, they want to try pretty crazy stuff sometimes in terms of cross-scene passes or stuff high in the zone. And we see just how quickly the abs can take a seemingly harmless play that gets tipped into

the neutral zone and turn it into a rush chance in the blink of an eye. And so I do think that kind of speaks to why there have been as good defense. as they have as well because they're just that kind of looming nightmare for the opposition is dumbing down their own game a little bit and that certainly plays into it as well. Yeah, the, I mean, the

abs are just so loaded and, you know, one guy, for example, when we've talked about the abs, I've often talked about Sam Malinsky as being a guy who fits so well with them, for them. You know, he's something for them on the third pair in terms of the way that he

can move the puck and facilitate all the cool things they do in transition. And I worry sometimes that maybe I've implied that what he is for them, he wouldn't be for somebody else, you know? And I increasingly am watching him play. He had an offside, unfortunately, on what would have been the Ave's second first period goal. But I thought this was another spectacular game for him. And I'm beginning to actually want to see Samalinsky in more difficult usage.

Not that we're going to see it right now, Manson and Burns have been so good, but I just wanted to note that I'm beginning to think that the way that I've been talking about Malinsky on this program on our Sunday specials, like needs adjustment. Because I actually think he might be able to develop sort of the defensive chops or might even have them already if he was tasked with it to be sort of a new NHL Alec Mark. Tinez type player capable of making that third pair to second pair difficulty jump and still being effective. I just, every time I watch him, I'm so, so impressed by what he is as a defenseman and what a find he's been for the avalanche. On the motivation point, I do think there's a possibility, and maybe this is premature, maybe we need to wait to the Olympic break to, like, really unpack this at greater length.

but they're at least in range of us beginning to have did you see by the way the Broncos Jaguars NFL broadcast put up the avalanche record and the Denver Nuggets record and was like wow look at the mile high city these teams they're all so hot and then and then I don't remember who the announcer was who said it but he was like man that avs record though Like we got spotlighted independent of a 10 and 2 and an 18 and 6 record as being of a different magnitude entirely, which by the way is dead right. I wonder if they're going to get to a point where their motivation down the stretch comes back up because they're chasing something that looks a little more like history, looks a little more like, you know, 95 Red Wings or 70, sorry, what year is it? It's the 77 Montreal Canadians that only lost eight games, right? I don't even know what it would have to look like given the way that we have

overtime games decided by three on three and, you know, the loser point, right? Like, they're not getting ties. You can't just lose eight games anymore, right? I mean, they've already lost more than eight games. But, you know, what would be the contemporary equivalent of 68 and 12, right? I mean, I don't even know, but I do think if the abs keep rolling like this, I mean, if we get to the Olympic break and the abs have lost four regulation games in the first half of the season, we're going to start talking history in a totally different way than we are today for good reason. And I just wonder how they respond to that. Like, I'll be curious to see if that's something they care about even.

I bet you it's not. Yeah, I've, you know, I've certainly heard relatively compelling arguments about this of like how sometimes the either the sort of psychological strain of like feeling like you've got this historical footnote coming there going into these games as opposed to sort of, you know, easy into the playoffs a little bit or even potentially having to play meaningful games down the stretch to to punch your ticket or to solidify your standing as opposed to like never really facing adversity at this point. I mean, just how often they're starting these games up 1-0, 60 to 90 seconds into the game, is unheard of. I think what it's allowing them to do is, as you've noted, bring down the usage for their top pillars a little bit where it's not like they're necessarily having to just exert. Like even in this one, I think McCarwhines are playing, what, 23 and a half minutes or so. McKinnon is around 22 near the end, but it's not like they're necessarily just having to go full blast either at this point. And they have so much depth now that I do think they could probably get. get away with resting some of these guys particularly maybe guys like either a landa skog

or a chushkin to preserve them down the stretch and not necessarily worry about losing games to maintain this record they're on so i do think it's going to be important because the stars themselves have been churning out so many points as well they're only up what four points or so with a couple of games in hand and and as we saw last year a whole mice in that series if it happens again is going to be incredibly important for both sides so at least they have that kind of dangling as like carried in front of them from a motivation perspective of like continuing to to produce this way because they need that that one seed yeah they're still chasing a comfortable lead atop their division as opposed to history but that is around the corner given how they've played

how sustainable it feels and looks when you watch them play you know this is this is something special and every time we get a chance to dig back into it or we sort of spotlight those games is once we want to pay attention to, I'm struck again by just how, you know, once a decade, once every decade and a half this team feels in terms of their ability to win games right now. Yeah, I think we should be enjoying it and celebrating it as it's going on. And at the same time, even coming out of a game like this, I'm not holding anything against Minnesota necessarily moving forward because they're obviously still figuring stuff out. They just got their guys back this weekend as well and heading into this one.

And they had been, what, 4 and 0 since the Hughes trade up 21 to 6 coming off a very impressive. I thought win at home against the Oilers team that's been playing really well. So lots of juicy storylines there in the central. Before we go to break, do you want to get into our next topic? I'm a little bit worried that it's going to be an extended one and it's going to kind of bleed into our. We're going to have to cut it short a little bit to take our break. But I feel like we should just get into it. Anyways, yeah, do you want to talk about the Buffalo Sabres?

Because we haven't had a chance to speak about them since they obviously made the managerial change at top of their organization. replacing Kevin Adams with Yarmouka-Kleinen? Yeah, and more, right? I mean, replacing Kevin Adams with Yarmok-Eclinin and then hiring Mark Bergevin from L.A. and Josh Flynn from Columbus to, you know, experienced executives with very different types of evaluative approaches and reputations, which, you know, I think is actually probably

a pretty good look on Yarmok-Eck-Kalinen, right? This idea of a big tent. and a vibrant process and, you know, wanting both the guy who traded P.K. Suban for Shea Weber and also, you know, a Columbus Blue Jackets, like a long-tenured Columbus Blue Jackets executive that's been very analytics friendly and has a reputation for really clever, open-minded cap management, sharp strategic thinking.

You know, the Seth Jones trade with Chicago being, um among those deals so i mean look this was long overdue for buffalo buffalo needed some some weight in their front office not just to protect their own market but because clearly they needed some weight in their front office and and hopefully it's part of managing up better and beginning to open the tap and spending like a normal NHL team uh because you know there's no reason for that team to be an also ran in perpetuity the way they have been given the talent in that lineup, which we've seen across the last week as they've racked up

a ton of wins. You know, this is a really, really talented group. And honestly, I think a fresh slate at the very top, a different guy setting the culture, I really don't think you should underestimate or people should underestimate what sort of impact that can have

even just from the perspective of giving everyone an opportunity to take stock and take a deep breath and remove an excuse. I'm not saying anyone was using it, but it is unexcused. Well, we're the Sabres. This is how we do business. This is how we've done business. You know, Yarmou Kek-Kek-al-Lanen, I think, not my favorite executive by any means, necessarily. I still think the Babcock hire is, you know, a wild piece of work, one of the most absurd

hirings in the last five years. But, I mean, you look at their draft record under Kekalinen, you know, you look at the business-like way that they conducted themselves. You look at, you look the sort of leadership that he demonstrated by creating sort of like a very hockey first ethos in a marketplace that I think needed it in terms of finding itself as a consistent playoff team and a team that swung really hard when they had a chance and commendably in my opinion a few years back even if it didn't necessarily work out you know he's going to have some of the same issues in Buffalo in terms of retaining players, right? I think the second contract stuff in Columbus is the other sort of

problem like that and the Babcock hire. Those are the two problematic things about his record. But I think there's been a lot of savvy trades. I think there's been an exceptional level of drafting. And I think you can you could tell just in the way that he was talking about the team sort of some of the things that he said in terms of setting a setting just like an example and a new voice at the top of the organization, non-owners. ownership division, I think that can pay huge dividends for a club that was just so desperate for some credibility in the executive suite. Yeah, I thought that introductory presser was important because of exactly what you said about relating to the GM's job of managing up and in this spot,

in particular for him with the Sabres and Pagula, because, you know, I think something Kevin Adams really struggled with over the years was kind of tap dancing around this issue, at least publicly and it wound up resulting in a lot of the excuses you've heard about palm trees and stuff like that for reasons for failure. And so a guy like Kekyllian, because of his experience and his stature in the league, I think possesses the kind of gravitas you need to step in there and pull something like this off. That may be a previous first time GM who was maybe more easily micromanaged wouldn't have a luxury of. And, you know, I think we're going to frame this conversation through the assumption that that's going to be the case, that he's going to have the type of not only

decision-making power and autonomy atop the organization, but also the resources required to run a fully functional hockey organization. If that's the case, I think this is a great job for anyone to step into, right? Especially comparatively when you think about when teams make managerial changes after they've been at the bottom of the standings, you're typically stepping into a spot where you don't have that much to work with from an asset perspective. Sometimes you have all these albatross contracts that you either have to wait out or figure out how to get rid of before you can even think about the accumulation phase and building stuff up. And in this case, I think not only does he inherit a bunch of legitimate prime age and

ascending talents that are already in place, but also I think there's an accessibility to meaningfully improving this team. And that's what I wanted to talk about with you here in terms of what our to-do list would be for the Sabres moving forward, the tech line and stepping in here in terms of ways they can turn this thing around, not necessarily fast track it, but a couple levers maybe they could pull to get this thing moving in the right direction. Yeah, and why don't we take our break

and get into that side of the conversation on the other side of our break? But certainly when you do get managerial shifts, when you get a shift in vision, right, that often is a harbinger or a preview of some movement to occur. And as much as Keckleinen in Columbus, you know, was often bridging guys and didn't tend to go very long on some of those second contracts until sort of later in his tenure, really. The fact that all these guys are locked up long term makes them especially fascinating from an asset value perspective, not even factoring in the dynamics of a cap growth error and anticipated cap growth error and how that interacts with it.

So I think you're right to note for as much as that team's, you know, been a perpetual punchline, frankly, across the league, a model of what not to do, you know, this is not, these cupboards are not empty at all. In fact, you know, someone's mom just went to Costco as Kekeleinen's come home here. All right, Tom, let's take our break here. And then we come back, we'll jump right back into it. You're listening to the HockeyPedio cast streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network. All right, we're back here on the Hockey-Ocast for our Sunday special, joined by Thomas Drans, as we teased before we went to break. We're going to go through our to-do list in terms of a plan of action for Brammergak-Kleinen

and the Sabres here moving forward as he takes over the team. I want to start off with the most obvious one, and it's just flat out extending both Benson and Doan for eight years, as soon as their ELCs expire, getting, for Benson, it would be what, is age 22 through 29 seasons or whatever for Doan, because it's a bit older, 25 through 32, but I feel like they really can't afford to mess around with this one. And so when I was thinking, kind of revisiting Kekelein's CBJ tenure, and we had a decade plus of work to analyze there, there was a lot of good. You hit on the one that would cause a little bit of pause for me here and it's quite possible that it's a different situation also learning from from those

past mistakes they can't afford to mess this one up because they have the cap space moving forward to pay a bit higher up front and locking in two players who i think you and are both incredibly high on but i think are also just hitting the tip of the iceberg of what they're capable of especially as offensive producers moving forward getting those guys retained for those years i think would clearly be atop my list of things I need to see to feel like the Sabres are on the right track here. Yeah, I think that's a good take for sure

and that is exactly where they should start. Donne is especially complicated given how productive he's been and the fact that he's got our arbitration rights, right? Those are very difficult deals to do early if you're

going to be nickel and diming. And I think also the truth is that they have to interact sensibly with two you know unavoidable dynamics that the organization is going to have to be mindful of. The first is the jump in the Jeff Skinner dead money hit to 6.4 million after this season. One logical way of managing that, of course,

is to say, well, let's go shorter on some of these deals. But I think it's only a matter of time. before Benson's goal production catches up to his overall point production. I think if you're watching him play and seeing the opportunities that he's getting, it's really just a matter

of the damn breaking. I wouldn't want to trifle with that. And I likewise wouldn't want to risk the complication that occurs when you end up negotiating deals with arbitration eligible players into the summer, right? Like even those

you know, those deals that get done in Toronto before the hearing. I guess you can't do the mid-hearing settlement anymore now that they've amended the CBA. But I feel like those deals too are often, I don't feel like teams get the best value on them. They're often compromises and I feel like that's not where teams want to land. Other than the Blake Wheeler contract, the one that he signed in like 2014, I feel like for the most part, those settlement deals end up in bridges or a team going shorter than I think a team like Buffalo should go on don't. So I think the Skinner cap hit can't be a reason to not do the right thing.

That would be sort of how I'd caption it. It's a reality that you have to deal with for one more year. It's going to dive back down to two and a half thereafter. But I don't think it can be a reason to influence you unduly, as it were, especially given, you know, the cap space that Buffalo projects to have next season. And then how would you handle Alex Tuck here? Because that's the other part of this. If Tuck is jumping to double his salary, which he definitely is.

I mean, he's probably the top UFA scoring forward in terms of the combination of attributes, size, age, going into this summer. How do you handle that one? Or how would you handle that one in terms of shaping your checklist for J.K.? Well, he's going to be 30 in May. And I think the idea, as it's been reported, that the expectation is somewhere in that $10 to $10.5 million, A.A.V, especially as it goes into his mid-30s, would be a no-go. For me, especially for the Sabres. Tux, you know, a big guy who I think his effectiveness primarily hinges on that lethal burst that he possesses his skating. And I think in particular, something we've seen over the years is the way these deals are often framed are, while we're attaining a player we really like, and they're production. for us right now and it could be a problem down the road when they decline, but that's a worry for another day. And then oftentimes I think what you see with these guys, especially once they're already 30 when it starts, is that that day comes much sooner than you anticipated. And that would

be my concern here. The other one is you look at his 515 splits and I think this is an insightful anecdote for them to consider. He's played 221 minutes with Josh Joe in the season at 515. they possess a 56% shot rate or share 66% high danger chance share and 60% expected goals it is 218 minutes away from Josh Stone those numbers all fall to the 47 range and so when you're kind of stripping this thing out to identify who the drivers are on this team the elements the Doan and Benson in particular provide to kind of prop everyone up around them at even strength is an important consideration when you're thinking about committing this much to a guy who you view as an engine for you. your team, but I'm not sure that's necessarily the case anymore if you're looking at this stuff or just watching Sabers games these days. Now, it looks like the Sabres are going to win tonight and Jack Hughes's return against the Devils, right? That gives them six straight wins in the 22 games they've played with Zach Benson in the lineup this season. They've gone 13, 6, and 3, which is pacing for north of 105 point pace. And so just talking about the value of those two guys

and then where this team's at right now, I'm not sure about the talk of salvaging this season because the east is so murky, but I'd keep the door open for it because they've been playing that good when they're at full health. Now, that wouldn't be a justification for me to keep talk and try to trade his rights at the deadline. I think there's a creative way to get around that

in terms of dealing him now, but not necessarily having it be for pure futures that won't help you this season. And I'm going to pitch you on that. It's a player you're very familiar with. What do you think about the idea of the Sabres, trading Tuck to a certain destination, getting a package of futures, and then turning around and flipping those futures and a couple guys that I think I would view as expendable on this roster to get Connor Garland before his extension and his no move clause kick in on July 1st. Yeah, I mean, I like that a lot for sure. I also wonder about Thatcher Demko for them from the perspective of- Yeah, just what they need is a fourth goalie.

Well, I mean, I, you know, because I think one thing, like, maximizing Tuck from their perspective, I think is critical, you know, mission critical. And I agree with you that they don't need futures necessarily. But I do wonder, you know, thinking about, for example, a team like Edmonton, okay? thinking, for example, about a team like Edmonton, you retain half of Tuck and he becomes, what, 2.325, right? 2.375. If you retain half of Tuck and bundle him with Lion, what's that worth?

Now, the Oilers might not have the prospect capital that they necessarily desire, but that would be the sort of thing that I'd be thinking about for them with dealing Alex is like can I take can I find a contender who can I can I find a contender can I address multiple multiple like two of their needs can I address multiple ones of their needs because I've got this sort of depth of talent and get the sort of asset back that positions me to and I think you're thinking about this the right way flip it for something that I think is is a true game changer I guess my concern with Garland is

while I like the idea of them effectively, you know, it's like you bring in a comparable player to tuck. Without any contract uncertainty for much cheaper. Right. Well, and it's effectively like you're giving him a $1.25 million raise and getting not a similar type of player, but a similarly good player, right? Like a similarly solid top six guy.

I think there's an argument to be made too that with the way that he drives play, Garland might be a more valuable, actual hockey contributor even if he has less trade value or exchange value because his profile breaks people's brains right a five foot seven puck battle winner is just something that hockey people are not used to uh so i mean i like that thinking i think the yeah look i like that thinking i'm i'm in on that for sure i'm in on something like that and i think that's a good way of thinking about it i'd also add like i'd like to see them go and bring in i think

think i i feel like they could use an ian cole type veteran defender i feel like that would be the other thing not as high leverage you're so mad at me that can't be near your top of your pitch list for what they need it is it is their their their defense is so young i feel like just bringing in a character defender who can add some size and bite to that back end that's something that i would prioritize doing because it's not going to cost you that much to do and like you know I'm thinking the guy like a Jamie Alexiak, something like that, an expiring guy who's probably going to get sold at some point. I feel like that would be the sort of move, you know, with perhaps a two or three year extension, get ahead of the market on something like that. I feel like that's

something that they should do and that they should target someone who's actually good like Alexic, because that would be sort of the other thing that we've seen Yarmou Kecklein and struggle with is we've seen some of those like good Branson contracts. And that's a player type that's been a landmine for him. So I feel like if you're going to do that and you know they're going to do that, go out, do it proactively and get an actual good version of that player. The thing that I love about the Garland fit is just the idea of the Sabres, assembling the most annoying forward group documented in hockey history, just having to deal with Garland, Benson, Doe, in the cloud, even Crabs right now, just not only terrorizing opponents, but also pushing the limits of like the NHL record for

penalty differential, whatever it is. I'd like to see them set that. I just think that's what makes this team not special right now because of where there are in the standings, but the vision of what it could be and what makes them so intriguing to us. And so I like the idea of doubling down on that. I would certainly explore. I'm curious for your mileage on this, trying to sell Bowen Byram. I don't know. I want to frame it as while you can because that window might have already passed for maximizing the asset as we saw this past off season where I don't think the market was necessarily as rich for him as I think they would have liked, why they wound up bringing him back on the two-year deal they did.

But I think it's possible that there's teams around the league and organizations that might not share my same sentiment in terms of my evaluation of him as a player. And you just look at the splits for him away from Rosmastalin. And then now what Matthias Samuelson is doing in that spot this season, I feel like that's an area where you can kind of subtract for now, but use that to improve your team in the long term. So, like, the guys that I would view as pieces you build around are certainly Tage, Benson, Doe, and McLeod, Oseland, Dahlin, Power, Samuelson, Kesselring,

at Kulik when he's back. I want to give Roseanne a longer shot, Consta Hellenius, who they took 14th overall a couple years ago, is producing at a point per game as a teenager in the HL. Obviously, Josh Norris Health is a complicating factor, but I feel like the guys, like, tuck here, but also moving forward, whether it's a Byram or a Jack Quinn, I feel like if there's takers there,

they can get really creative with these kind of quote-unquote hockey trades that I think they can be better off for in the long run. Yeah, and I just wonder, because I agree with you, I mean, it's the, they absolutely need to be in the market to do the trade some good players or some good assets for a real home run type asset, right? And we just saw a trade like that with the wild trading for Quinn Hughes. And to me, Byram feels like a perfect Marco Rossi stand-in, right?

Just taking that package, right? The Marco Rossi stand-in would be, you know, Byram in that type of trade. He plays a premium position. He's still young. He doesn't have a lot of term left on his deal, but there's a couple of years. Like, it's not, it's not like you have to treat him like a pending UFA at the moment. You know, and he's controlled contractually as an R. RFA beyond this contract, right?

So I sort of... I think he's a UFA after next season, after the two-year deal they signed him to. I believe, oh, right, okay. No, two years, RFA. I'm looking at it on cap wages. According to cap wages, RFA with arbitration rights after this contract. So I think the way that I'd be sort of considering that is, you know, what, like, what does that package look like and which is a team that moves? Because Buffalo, I do think, is uniquely

positioned to buy from the bottom of the standings. Right. And I think that's sort of an interesting part of it. And then just to throw in one other part of this, there are also some landmines in terms of trades that I think they have to be careful to avoid of players that are on their roster right now. You know, I'm not going to talk about like, Like, I'm a Tia Samuelson, a player that I've always been higher on than market, because I think he's played well enough that you would be selling in a low web of his value now. But I do think Owen Power, he's been awesome. That's what I'm saying. But I think Owen Power is a guy who you don't want to sell low on, right?

And or sell him like that contract is problematic. So I think that's also part of this. You know, there's not a lot of guys for whom I think that's true of among Buffalo's players, you know, and then. but but I do think he's one of them like he's he's one of them and then you know managing the risk on jack Quinn and josh norris is another fascinating decision for an incoming general manager to figure figure out right because those guys have both played really well they both are really good they both play premium positions they're both young and you know i i i can imagine a fresh set of eyes coming into that organization and sort of viewing those not as not as

necessarily, but as question marks, right, that require some thoughts, some consideration with a variety of options on the table. Certainly. All right, let's end the show talking about a couple of trades that have happened, because before the holiday freeze, we got Philip Denno going to the Habs for 20, 26 second, and then we got Mason Warchman going to the Blue Jackets for a couple of picks, essentially just moving up around in a future draft for the cracking from what they paid this past summer to get him from Dallas. Do you want to go through both of them here? Which one do you find more interesting for

our perspective here of breaking it down a little bit? Well, let's just quickly talk Marchment because I think the optics of the Columbus Blue Jackets swing a trade for Mason Marchment on the eve of the smart guy exodus from their organization. I feel like there's something funny about that to me that I just wanted to call out before we get into the deal. I also just think there's a really straightforward method of, of analyzing this deal from Seattle's perspective, for example, where it's like, well, they turned a third round pick into a second round pick. And the, the truth is that that's a wildly inefficient use of one to one point five million dollars in actual salary and, you know, holding, I mean,

what's Mason Marchman's cap? It's almost five, right? It's four and a half to five. It's four and a half yeah. Yeah. So, uh, holding four and a half million in cap space on your books through, you know, that the end of June, July, August, September, when that cap space can be pretty effective or valuable. And then through the first two months of the season. Like that's, you wouldn't pay one and a half million dollars to upgrade a third to a second plus have a six month, four and a half million dollar cap hold. That's a wildly inefficient use of resources.

And I find sometimes when teams make these trades, the discussion allows them to have won it twice. So it's like they won the Mason Marchment trade because it's like, well, we brought in Mason Marchman, he's really good. And then they get to win it again when the trade doesn't work out, despite the opportunity costs because they got slightly more than they paid. But the truth is that that's a bad use of $4.5 million in Calf Space for two months. It's a bad use of $1.5 million in salary.

The return is deeply inefficient and reflects the fact that the move didn't work for Seattle. So, you know, I think more than anything, it marks the Marchment deal that Seattle made originally as an L. I think it signals that they understand where they're at, despite their start to the season, that this is a team that's probably going to have to consider selling again. And, you know, I think it's interesting that Columbus sort of swung the bat on this right before Josh Flynn moved on, just because, you know, I don't want to use a word like reckless, especially because I think they can get much of the return back if this doesn't work out for them.

but, you know, I mean, honestly, I would have preferred to see them pay an additional asset and get retention on it. If that was the goal, yeah, if that was the goal, because then you're acquiring an asset with a real chance to create value. Instead, it just felt like they're sort of putting lip service on this idea that they want to go for it while making a trade that's certainly not going to move the needle for them. Well, I do think from an arbitrage perspective, now they can retain 50% of it at least. And so Marchman at 2.75 or whatever at the deadline probably can recoup something as

someone gets desperate and looks around a relatively lead market for a guy who can play for them in the playoffs, although given his propensity for mind-numbingly dumb penalties, I'd be wary of that if I were a contender. It is a shame we didn't see any execution of that double retention concept. But at least this gives them an opportunity to buy a little bit now but sell down the road as well because they're going to have, whether it's coil or Jenner, if things stay the way they are, at least they'll be able to dictate the trade market a little bit. I mean, the Blue Jackets, you know, part of the reasoning for this trade was positioned as like

they need some sort of a spark because Zach Wrensky's been complaining publicly about the state of the team and how frustrating it is that he's playing as a top two to three defender in the league again and they keep losing. They're down a 26th in point percentage now. It's been such a tilting season as someone who was very high on the Blue Jackets and keeps watching them this year in the first period of games. year, they're up to in the second period, they're up one. And in the third period, they're down 53 to 30 right now. They've blown so many 50-50 games late, the most recent one with like

four minutes left in Anaheim when they at least could have gotten a point out of it and wind up nothing to have for it. I do think, though, as you're reflecting on the blue jackets where they're at right now, managerially and moving forward, they're quickly approaching, I think, a dangerous crossroads for the organization, because as we've spoken about, both Marchenko and Varankov are going to be entering the final years of their RFA deals next season and they're going to be those exact players you're noting 26 year old Arbright's players who are one year out of UFA. Renski's going to be 29 this summer and he's going to have two years left on his deal after this one.

And so Vantilly's up for a second contract, you've got Ken Johnson's regression. I feel like all the stuff that we are very excited about is still certainly in place theoretically, but I feel like these types of things can spiral pretty quickly if you don't get it on track. I don't think that acquiring Mason Marchment is going to be the elixir for that. But they clearly need to do something and kind of think about this, I think, proactively before it gets away from them. I think if you're, I think at this point, honestly, with this, I really feel like the conversations we've had in this segment are linked in terms of what this could mean for the league,

the ecosystem of the league, the balance of power in the NHL between now and the trade deadline. and that specifically is that I think if you're a team considering entering a rebuild, Yarmokekeleinen has to be your first call, right? Because they're going to do something, it's not going to be a rebuilding type move. They're going to want actual players

and they've got so many fascinating valuable assets, right? That for me, Buffalo is a team that could tilt the balance of power in terms of what a, what a successful build looks like three years out over, you know, the next several months. Like, let's say between now and the draft, we don't even need to say it's before the trade deadline. And the sort of flip side of that coin is the Columbus Blue Jackets have also now had a pretty

significant shift in management under Don Waddell, right? The Flynn departure really feels like it's, you know, Waddell had come in and replace Kekleinen, but a lot of Keklein's people were still there. There was more continuity with this sort of. of Blue Jackets era that had come before it, I do feel like Flynn's departure, given how long he was there, right? The, this, it just feels like it marks sort of the end of that like Kecklein and Zito Flynn crew that was there for so long and built those Tortorella era teams and, you know, did the big swing with the Mad DeShane trade. And I do feel like if you're anybody, right,

whatever Columbus's next move is, especially given what they paid for Marchment, I just feel like that's a team that's either as a seller or potentially depending on how they decide to move forward with a struggling young player like Kent Johnson, I feel like that's a team that's at the very top of my watch list in terms of a team that could make the sort of move that shifts how we're looking at other teams around the league. Like those two teams really feel like they're in the center of it now. you want to quickly get into denno i think the the king's perspective is almost just as interesting

here in terms of where we're at right now with them then the team acquiring which is the habs yeah well yeah do do your king's take i mean i just think they're so despicable to watch right now and yeah they have been for a while but i feel like it's really reached the absolute bottom right now and listen like after this trade they have what nine plus in caps base they get an extra asset here there's reports that they're in the market for a speedy scoring winger, and I think that's great. The issue is that whoever they bring in, they're going to quickly realize, I think, that they still have the same group of defensemen who can't get their forwards a puck in dangerous attacking situations, and they're going to keep struggling.

And I was watching them very closely during this road trip through Florida in particular. They wind up winning the second game in Tampa Bay, and it was such a King's win because they get two cool Adrian Kempe goals and then do absolutely nothing the rest of the way hold on for Deer Life and win 2-1 and their offense at this point I mean they've scored more than twice

in four of their last 16 games they've scored zero or one five-on-five goal in 20 of their 34 games they're 31st and 5-on-5 goals per 60 they're 29th on the power play and so they're basically being propped up by not only the state

of the West right now but the fact they have these nine OT losses when they've really lost 19 of their 34 games so far they never have the lead they're never really playing ambitiously and so I think it's incredibly frustrating and you know Dano's underlying numbers here in particular were such a king's profile

because his on ice shooting percentage was like in the sixes and then his on ice say percentage was 940 and he was still slightly winning his 5-1-5 minutes but doing it in the most lopsided hilarious way possible that was so on brand for the LA Kings in 2025 Yeah, and so incredibly unfun.

Like, it's honestly, it's like they're trying to play Daryl Sutter hockey 10 years too late. Yeah, I mean, the, like, I like the fit for Montreal in that I think Deno still has game. And especially in a speedier environment, I think he can help. I think he can be good. But I mean, the Kings, they're going to be a safe playoff team because of the floor is, the floor is just high. they have just enough depth they have enough talent they have enough veteran know how they have a bunch of you know guys that know how to win as it were but they have no ceiling whatsoever doesn't feel like byfield's taken a step and how could any high-flying offensive talent take a step given the way that

the kings play right i mean um so yeah i find the kings deeply uninteresting at this point you know like they're just deeply uninteresting. They're a safe playoff team that's going to be very hard pressed to surprise anybody in the first round, given the shape of the teams around them. I mean, unless they get really lucky and face a team like Anaheim because Edmonton doesn't get together, although as we're seeing, I think Edmonton's going to get it together, you know, I think that's, I think that's their fate, is they're going to be a foil in the first round again for a clearly superior team. And that's just, that just sucks because this build has. the potential to be better than that, to be more than that,

when they came out of the pandemic with, you know, I think a really promising profile. Well, as we talk about teams like Buffalo or Utah and kind of this idea of scaling up to take the next step as an organization when you get out of your rebuild and all of a sudden now you have expectations to win and in particular you have these opportunities available to you of like consolidating assets to get from good to great potentially and not messing that step up. And I feel like the Kings in terms of just having their ceiling crash down on them along the way because of those moves that ensued are as good of a cautionary tale as you could probably point to for any of those teams when those conversations come up with them.

Yeah. And really with the final blow being this summer, because I still think there was a path to them reigniting that ceiling as recently as this summer. And I think their contractual decisions, the way that they decided to spend that cap space, I think. think really locked them into being, you know, a safe playoff team and really no more than that. Yeah, I thought it was a super reasonable trade for the HABs, as you know, I just wanted to expand on that a little bit because the second they gave up, they actually got from the aforementioned Blue Jackets two summers ago for taking on line A's contract from them. They have a bunch of money coming off the books, both this summer and next summer as well. And from a fit perspective,

especially with all the injuries they've had down the middle, despite the fact that his scoring is completely dried up. And I think some of that might be the environment in LA. but he's turning 33, so it's possible it's related to him as well. He still wins, draws, kills penalties, and has defensive utility. And so I think that's going to be useful for a team that has offensive juice on the wings to do the stuff that he's struggling to right now. Yep. I mean, what, if he had five more points, is he going for two seconds,

given what we know about the center market, given the price that the Seattle Cracken were able to net for marchment, right? And then I guess the other part of this is, I think this is a really good time to be a seller. I think both of those pre-deadline freeze prices were excellent for the team selling the player. I liked the Montreal side of this deal a fair bit. So I'm not criticizing them. I'm just saying given how little he's scored given his age, you know, to net that second round pick. That tells me that the market for veteran contributors with playoff experience is going to be pretty

robust between now and the deadline, right? And that there is some similarity despite the positional difference between Marchment and Deno, in terms of, you know, they've been deep in the playoffs. They've done it year after year. They've got that sort of those bona fides.

If you have a veteran player that matches that description, I mean, it seems like these two trades in, in totality tell you, those teams are going to do well if they lean into that. Oh, I really wanted to talk about the Predators with you today because I've been, for some reason, purposefully watching so much national Predators hockey recently and

I don't think people have noticed because they started 612 and 4 right and at that point they had a minus 30 goal differential they're 30 second in the league since then they're 9 and 4 the only teams they've lost to in December are the hurricanes twice in the abs which there's certainly no shame in and the young guys are popping but they also

have much more offensive juice than they certainly look like they had and they had in a very impressive weekend against two kind of older slower Eastern Conference teams but just piling up the shots against both the Leafs and Rangers and regulation wins. And so I don't know, man, I love watching Luke Evangelista so much. I think Matthew Woods, awesome, Svechkov, Blankenberg, you go on down the line, what Ryan O'Reilly still is left in the tank.

Like, we can revisit this if it keeps up. But I want to at least note that because the predators are rising up my watchability rankings right now. Yeah, they're wildly fun right now. I like that evangelistic goal was insane um was that Tampa Bay yeah the Tampa Bay goal I was against the Leafs on Saturday right the Leafs on Saturday excuse me I blanked but the that goal was insane and you know he's producing a ton he's going to rank among the most hated players in the league for for good reason and yeah no I think there there there is just a

big morass of teams obviously there's no real bad teams quote unquote this year which i think makes this volatility where you know the the 30 the first 30 games that a team like pittsburgh had or that san jose had or that seattle had right that could be calgary that could be vancouver that could be nashville uh over the next 30 right i do think there's going to be more of that sort of variance in in results because I just think there's like six or seven good teams and I honestly feel like from 32 up to about the top 10 in the league there's just a truly astounding amount of parity. And when the league is in that sort of shape, variance is going to play an even greater role in determining outcomes over short periods of time.

I think it's going to be really difficult to evaluate team quality or to avoid overreacting or underreacting. to exactly how a team is running. And I do think that that is an interesting dynamic as teams begin to prepare for the deadline. And a lot of those meetings are going to happen over the next five weeks. And as teams think through, who are we? What do we want to accomplish? Is it time to rebuild?

Is it time to bolster our, right? Like, I think those decisions are going to be especially fraught. I think there's going to be unusually robust opportunities for savvy teams that have a better sense of who they are. I just think it's, I think we're in for a really fascinating next six weeks, six to eight weeks of hockey. And that's not even factoring in my excitement for the Olympics and those rosters getting named over the next 10 days. Yeah. I take your point. I think the predators might actually be pretty good, though, beyond just the wins.

I think they're up to like top eight in five on five chances and expected goals. They've controlled play well all season. They generate offensively, certainly. All right. That's all for this edition of the Sunday special. I'll let you plug some stuff on the way out. What can the listeners look forward to? Oh, well, I'll, I always do a Canucks trade value rankings on Boxing Day.

The annual shopping day includes my ranking of Canucks by trade value, an especially interesting exercise this year, or at least an especially relevant one. Although, you know, with Quinn Hughes having already been traded, maybe it's not as interesting to fans of other teams. Nonetheless, check that out at the athletic on Boxing Day. And of course, you can listen to Canucks talk. You're co-hosting with me a bunch this week, by the way. I sure am.

So if you want even more Sunday specials, this time on Monday and other days of the week, check out the Canucks talk feed. You can get that across the Sportsnet Radio Network, wherever you get your podcast. But we're going to have a blast. All right, buddy. Good stuff. Looking forward to next Sunday. Give us a five-star reviewer you listen.

Join us in the PDA guest Patreon as well. We're up to 250 subscribers in there. I had a couple people reach out saying they got gift subs from loved ones for the holidays, which is awesome to see. so please join us there. And I'm not sure when we'll be back. We might take a couple days off here for the holidays. So if we don't chat till then,

just want to wish a very happy holiday season to everyone listening. We'll be back soon, though. Don't worry. In the meantime, thank you for listening to the Hockey-PedioCast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network.