The Hockey PDOcast - Avs Playing from Behind, JJ Moser's Extension, Sabres Winning Streak, McDavid's December, and Our Saturday Night Takeaways

Episode Date: December 29, 2025

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Thomas Drance to go through our biggest takeaways from Saturday night's slate of games as the NHL returned from its holiday break. We discuss Colorado's fastball in the ...3rd period against Vegas after they finally had to play from behind for once, JJ Moser's contract extension and the way the Lightning have set their cap sheet up moving forward, Buffalo's 8-game winning streak and their place in a crowded Eastern Conference playoff picture, Celebrini's dominance and the details in his game in Year 2, Connor McDavid's scoring rampage in December, and a bunch of other stuff that's caught our eye. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Regressing to the mean since 2015, it's the Hockey P.D.O.Cast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name's Dmitra Filipovich. As always, joining me on a Sunday for our Sunday special, my good buddy, Thomas Trans. Tom, what's going on, man? Dimitri, I hope you, I hope your audience, had a happy holiday, a Merry Christmas. Some time off from hockey, by the way, right? I mean, hockey, unlike the NBA and the NFL, actually takes games off, takes days off. I'm a big fan, by the way. I'm a fan of having a few days for everyone to take a deep breath. Hockey's such a hamster wheel when the season's ongoing.
Starting point is 00:00:50 And then we got a pretty entertaining Saturday slate. It's like pent up energy and got a fantastic Saturday. Day Slate as things got back to normal and I got the league ground back in action. Looking forward to the second half of the year, my friend. Yeah, I'm excited to be back. It's good. This is the first show back. I took a couple days off
Starting point is 00:01:08 here pretty much a week entirely since the last time you and I spoke on last week's Sunday special and I actually wanted to do some shows around the holidays and I was messaging people seeing if guests wanted to come on and record shows with me and people like, leave me alone. I'm hanging out of my family and taking time off. There's no games on and I'm like, all right, I guess I'll take some time off. Myself
Starting point is 00:01:24 as well. You mentioned that. Saturday's slate and I wanted to get into some of the big games that I watched last night with you and I think a fitting way for us to start is to talk about I think the last game on that slate which was the Colorado Avalanche visiting Vegas to play the Golden Knights. I'm not sure how much of it you got to catch but I have so many takeaways on that especially down the stretch partly because you know you and I have spoken about dabs a bunch we started off last week show talking about their game against the Minnesota Wild. And as part of that conversation, we were talking about how easy the season's been for them relatively in terms of how often they're scoring the first goal early in games and then
Starting point is 00:02:03 kind of leaning on the opposition. They haven't really been back into a corner or pushed in a lot of these games. And so on Saturday evening in Vegas, you get this spot where they're down four to going into the third period. They've only trailed for about 16% of their entire game time. So far this season, certainly very few multi-goal deficits. And all of a sudden, in that score state, we got to see them just go full blast offensively pushing for tying goals to get back into it. And it was as belligerent as you'd expect. I was looking at the radar gun and the fastball they threw in that one in Vegas on Saturday clocked in quite high. And so I wanted to break that down with you because I thought that was just absolute theater to watch. Yeah, I mean,
Starting point is 00:02:45 to do it against a team like Vegas too, a team that has a shot and to do it with the level of authority that they did, right, was pretty incredible. It was one of those games where I watched the third period more closely than the rest of it, mostly because Avalanche Down 2 is the best theater in the sport, and it delivered. I mean, the attempts were wildly lopsided, the Avalanche were impossible to contain. They get the early goal. I mean, it was textbook, and then when Vegas did find their footing, they punched back one last time, ended up winning it in a shootout.
Starting point is 00:03:20 But, yeah, I mean, the avalanche are very, very quickly entering a totally different conversation, right? Final 25 minutes of gameplay heading into third period, including overtime. 47 shot attempts for the aves, 19 shots on goal, over two expected goals worth of offense, and three goals scored, as you said, erased two goal deficits throughout. And in particular, the last goal to tie it after they pulled the goalie pretty early. I think there was like three minutes left. They get an offensive zone draw coming out of a TV timeout. And after some pressure, set up that look with McKinnon attracting attention, getting it into the middle of the ice for Lekinin to hammer at home.
Starting point is 00:04:00 And listen, there's so many ab stats to kind of reflect their dominance and how they're kind of in a league of their own so far this season. But I think I found my favorite of the bunch. They've played 10 and a half minutes so far this season with their net empty. They're up for one in that time. Oh, my God. Now, there's only two other teams in the league that in similar spots with their goalie pulled are breaking even or better. One is the L.A. Kings, who are somehow up five, four, and 32 minutes,
Starting point is 00:04:28 the only time they're seemingly ever dangerous, although they did put up a six spot, I believe, on the ducks on Saturday, and then the Flyers who are breaking even four-four. In 37 third periods now, the abs are up 52 to 19 on the season. And it's, it was, as you said, theater, I think it's the best way to describe it. It was incredibly fun to watch. Our guy, Sam Malinsky, who I think you were right to point out last week and isolated for his play, who clearly has so much juice, had three assists in this one.
Starting point is 00:04:57 In his 5-1-5 minutes, shots were 50-0 for the aves. The only defenseman with more 5-1-5 points in him this season are Werenski, Makar, Hudson, Chikrin, and Morrissey. And so he's been incredible as well. And, yeah, I was just awesome to see the abs in that spot where they had to, push for it offensively, unlike most of the games they've played so far, and they delivered. And so I'm not sure how many more of those we're going to see throughout this season, although I imagine it will see something sprinkled in.
Starting point is 00:05:23 But for our sake, just from entertainment perspective, I hope that is the case, because it's certainly delivered. You got any other notes on that game, or do you want to go through the rest of our topics? I got a good selection here for us. Yeah, I mean, I think the absence of Jack Eichel just needs to be noted, right? And Shay Theodore. Yeah, for sure. But, I mean, Eichol is going to be.
Starting point is 00:05:43 be like the Eichael McKinnon minutes are going to be what Vegas is going to have to rely on and maybe even load up for in in terms of actually handling McKinnon if we do see these two teams at the pointy end of of this campaign right and so while there's a lot for the avalanche to take from this like we can still play our rush game and take over a third period and out attempt them three to one and out shoot them three to one with our backup against a wall and even if they fight back like even if they get the counter punch, retake the lead, energized home crowd goal back, we're still going to be lethal against them. You know, the absence of that Eichol blanket to throw over those McKinnon minutes is still notable. I also just want to shout out Kaden Korshack, a longtime favorite of the program, had the stretch pass to Sissons, and also was the primary, like it was on a pair primarily matched up against McKinnon. They lost the matchup, but given the game state and given the fact that it wasn't a complete torching on the scoreboard, I'd say that's a job well done for an underrated defender.
Starting point is 00:06:51 It was a huge offensive game for him. I think he put two pucks into his own net as well, that careened in off of them. So there was a lot going on there for him. I'll add William Carlson as well, who's been out forever as well as an option in terms of some of those defensive assignments. I mean, the Golden Knights by my count have gone to 15 overtimes now in their third. 36 games and 11 of those have been losses, but just getting those loser points has kept them afloat here throughout, and they're still sitting atop the Pacific, and I think they're
Starting point is 00:07:18 fifth in the league in points percentage. So, yeah, I feel like in general, when these two teams match up, we get some pretty high-level hockey and really kind of back and forth. They both understand the assignment, and they know that they're the best team in each respective division. I don't want to spend too much more time on this one, even though I could spend the entire show on it because I've got AJ Hayfley coming on and talk about the abs later this week so I'm going to save it for then the next thing on my docket do you want to talk about the jj mozer extension yeah we should so 6.75 for eight years it covers his age 26 through 34 seasons he had one more year as an rFA before becoming unrestricted that makes him only the 41st
Starting point is 00:07:58 highest paid defenseman by cap hit heading into next season and the last time we spoke about the lightning at length and we focused on j j mozer I was talking to you about how despite me thinking the world of him and how I classified him as a top 10 defenseman in terms of the value he's presented his team this season. This is the profile that does not really get paid accordingly because he's only got three goals and 12 points or whatever so far. And sure enough, he comes in at this number and I think maybe people who haven't been paying attention to him and are just looking at those box card stats are like, that seems pretty rich. Is this what people are talking about when they talk about the cap going up? And I think it's the opposite. I think it
Starting point is 00:08:35 reflect how guys like this are probably the biggest market and efficiency in the league right now, whether it's a Gus Forsling or a Jacob Slavin or Chris Tanev for seemingly a decade now playing for exactly 4.5 million throughout all of his prime seasons. Like these types of guys, like the smart defender who has range and good defensive instincts in terms of where to go and cutting off plays and just acts as a human eraser. And some transition value too. Retrievals and like just kind of extending plays and being very connective, Dylan Sandberg as well. Yeah. These guys are never going to get paid, these guys are never going to get paid reflective to what they mean to their team winning games, right? And because we still, despite how smart everyone's gotten and looking at all this stuff and evaluations, there's a lot of defaulting going on to goals and points, even for defensive defensemen.
Starting point is 00:09:23 And so they get him for under $7 million and I just think it's an incredible deal for them moving forward. For sure. And, you know, it's 41st now, but what does, I mean, does he, is he even paid like a top pair guy? in two years almost certainly not and you know by the midpoint of this extension you're going to be paying him like a mid tier second pair guy and he's already shown us this season that he's capable of more than that at the age of 25 with very little reason for us to think that he's not going to maintain that level through you know at least his early 30s which covers the vast majority of this extension i also like that it almost creates this environment where you know they did the McDonough extension, right? So McDonough's at 6.75 for this year, and then we'll go to, what, 4.1, right? And so it's like his contract slot, the second pair LD contract slot, the non-Hedman other important lefty defender contract slot basically is inherited by Moser, and then Moses, what, 3.8 or 3.4 or whatever it is, plus inflation becomes McDonough's cap hit the next year. So in terms of the way that the Lightning are organizing their books for this build anyway,
Starting point is 00:10:41 it feels like Moser and McDonough will basically just like shake hands and switch spots. And there's something that appeals to like my OCD there and is typical of sort of the Lightning's overall mastery of the like team building details, the cap management side of this that I think is sustained that their run of excellence throughout. And realistically, it goes well beyond this decade when they were winning cups, like, you know, since the early part of last decade, I mean, across a 15-year run now as the model NHL franchise. I had that in my notes. Exactly.
Starting point is 00:11:18 This year they're paying Moser-McDonough 10.125. Yeah. Combined, both guys were set to expire and be up for new deals with the cap going up. And somehow the lightning are going to be paying them 10.85 million next year combined. After all of this, a couple numbers for you. So he's been the number one defenseman on the lightning this season. Yeah. In terms of usage, you look at a 515 PK without headman around,
Starting point is 00:11:42 and obviously McDonough and Cher and I come out as well. Him and Raddish have formed this oddball top pair who are up 16 to 3. Yeah. And for 300, 515 minutes so far, he's been a beast in the PK. And the reason why I want to note that is that's been a real strength of the Lightning this year. I think they've been fourth in the league or whatever in terms of PK efficiency. And to celebrate this new deal, they play this game on Saturday night against the the Panthers where 32 minutes and 20 seconds out of the 60 were played 5-1-5.
Starting point is 00:12:08 The rest was short-handed for one team or the other, and the Lightning just spent the entire third period holding on 0-1 goal lead killing penalties. J.J. Moser plays nine and a half minutes on the PK, and shots are four or three Panthers in that time, and they kind of break even 101 in goals. And it's like, this is such a fitting way to celebrate this guy's extension with him just doing what he does best and then winning the way they did it. When they get the Gensel Shorty, I mean, the Lightning's penalty killing excellence, too, I think as we get closer and closer to Team Canada roster time is worth bearing in mind, right?
Starting point is 00:12:42 Because I do think the penalty killing excellence and Anthony Sorrelli, who picks up the helper on the Gensel shorty against the Panthers this weekend, I do think Sorrelli's excellence four on five is going to be in the event that he repeats and remains on this team after being part of the Four Nations team. I think that short-handed ability, the fact that, you know, he'd be viewed in those internal team Canada conversations as like their best penalty-killing option, and I don't think we'd have much to quibble with there. I think that's, you know, something we should keep in mind in muting maybe the criticism over whether or not they should have gone more offensive. Yeah, I mean, you could see it in that game. He sets that one up. I believe later on there short-handed he draws, he gets on a breakaway, draws a penalty, nullifies a panthers power play. He's
Starting point is 00:13:32 obviously phenomenal there and he's got chemistry as well whether it's point or obviously playing with hagel and all the reps they've gotten together i don't necessarily have a quibble with it i just feel like there are guys on that team even lower in a lineup that have relatively similar pk chops with maybe more scoring punch in case you bump into injury or guys kind of struggling to fit with their line mates that would just give you more optionality that would be my one sort of pushback on that but we've also to be clear i'm not saying you shouldn't criticize it i just think the penalty killing excellence is part of the conversation that we should bear in mind in discussing it. And they've been pretty clear with their intentions of relatively rolling it over wherever they
Starting point is 00:14:08 can with the group from four nations that obviously won that tournament. On the cap front, I think, I mean, first off, starting with the JGMO's trade and the acquisition of them, I think we need to talk a little bit about the shrewd business angle from Julian Breezebaw here, because not only do you get all the. extra stuff, right? I believe they got a second and a seventh in that deal and Connor Geeky as well. But they swap out surrogatech for Moser. And in doing so, I think this year has shown us they got the better player. Yeah. Out of the two, they cut off $1.75 million in expenditure in doing so. And now they have Moser for three extra years on top of that when the cap is going to go to whatever
Starting point is 00:14:55 stratosphere it does. And I was thinking about this from Utah's perspective as well, a team that we obviously always have somewhere on our mind. It's a tough one for them because from a team-building perspective, they back themselves in a little bit of a corner. They still have a lot of flexibility and obviously a lot of assets moving forward. But they're paying Mikhail Sergeyev to be a number one. They're using him as one. I believe he plays more than four minutes more than any other Utah mammoth skater this season. And he just unfortunately isn't one. And so I think that's a situation that'll be easier to stomach with the cap going up and then being able to potentially add someone to supersede him on the depth chart but for right now it's pretty
Starting point is 00:15:35 tough especially when this contract comes in and you just see the way Moser is playing for Tampa and all the utilities providing them yeah it's a good point the I suppose the thing that surgeshev does have that Moser doesn't still is the production right like that he is the guy who can go out and give you 50 points or 60 points. I think Moser probably could if you just gave him top power play minutes and 25 minutes a night. I don't know, man. I mean, not at the same. Took away his defensive conscience.
Starting point is 00:16:07 Not at the same level. Like, we've seen Sergachev do things like play the flank on the power play and be productive. I don't think you'd ever task Moser with that. You'd be comfortable with him playing second pair point, but... Listen, I didn't mean to reignite our Sergachev awards. A couple years ago, you and I had a very heated off-air debate about this. extended for months during the offseason. 100%.
Starting point is 00:16:28 I mean, I would say it extends to this day. I still think I'm higher on the player than you. But the, I do think part of the reason has always been, you know, I do think the offensive toolkit that Surgishev has is pretty unique for a defender who's as reliable as he is up lineup. Theoretically, sure. I just wish that it would result in better offense, I guess, for the team, which has been a big quibble for me this year watching Utah.
Starting point is 00:16:54 and he's not necessarily entirely on his plate. There's, you know, Kooli's been out for a while. There's a lot going on. Maybe some coaching stuff we're going to have to revisit down the road. But for a guy making as much as he isn't being used as much as he is, I wish there was a little bit more there. And then you compare that to obviously an entirely different role, but like what Moser is doing for Tampa right now and just how valuable it is
Starting point is 00:17:13 to their entire operation, I thought it was neat to kind of compare the two. As a general rule, as a general rule, when the Tampa Bay Lightning sell the best player in a trade for a package of things, or when they, sell the more established guy to take a swing on a younger player, like Drew Amph for Surgishev, of course, back in the day. They seem to be exceptional at knowing exactly what they're selling when they do it. And I think Brisewell, getting ahead of this contractually, presents a unique buying opportunity for them, whether it's this offseason or the future. And this is obviously going to be the last, next year is going to be the last year of Kuturov's
Starting point is 00:17:48 current deal, and then he's going to be up for a new one. But they've got 88 million, million committed right now to 12 forward six defensemen and two goalies so a full lineup the only guys who on their books who are under contract are all over at york strand and darren radish who of course is going to be due for a big payday and then our guy charl edward dust too as well but that gives them quite a bit of breathing room i think to by the way they're going to need to bring back yes destu rocks um to kind of supplement this core and i think like have much more wiggle room i think than they've obviously had in previous seasons where they had to go the other way in terms of like cost-cutting methods and really kind of on the margins, adding depth players. Obviously, the
Starting point is 00:18:28 UFA market's not going to be rich with anyone to just splash cash on, but whether it's via trade or we're building someone back up, I think the opportunity is going to be there for Breeswell and the Lightning to add a meaningful piece to the core they already have just because everyone they have right now is under contract and the cap's going up. Yeah. And Kutrov will soak up a fair bit of that and lightning true to form are likely to prioritize that, right? I mean, how many of these core player extensions get done a year ahead, a year ahead of their expiry, but also on July 1, right? I mean, that's something they've generally done. And given the term left on Gensel and, you know, all of these guys, right, the truth is that there's not even a question about whether or not they should pay Kutrov, whatever it takes to make sure that he remains the guy pulling the strings for them five on four and five and five, frankly.
Starting point is 00:19:20 Next up on our list, the Buffalo Sabres. Eight in a row. Eight straight wins. Now last week they were in the midst of this winning street, but we focused a lot of our conversation around the GM change and kind of long-term build. I want to talk more about their play right now because I thought in particular the last one was the most impressive of the bunch.
Starting point is 00:19:38 It was a beat down at home on Saturday night of the Bruins. The gear they hit in the second period in particular where they just took that game over was very impressive to me, and they didn't have Rasmus Dahlian around. And so guys like Matthias Samelson, who had previously been playing with him, steps up. He plays 24 and a half minutes as a goal to assist, continues his offensive explosion at him nowhere this year, and then no one power, who has been much maligned by people who don't necessarily either watch hockey or look at or know what they're looking at when they watch it, plays 25, 28 in this one, 1925 of it. At 5-1-5, shots on goal were 20 to
Starting point is 00:20:12 three for the Sabres in that time. So I think people wanting him to step up and play as a number, a first overall pick defenseman who's getting paid 8 plus the way he is he certainly delivered now the Sabres are up to a tie for 13th in the league in points percentage tied with the Panthers in their own division and remarkably
Starting point is 00:20:31 at this point because of the imbalance in power between the east and the west that's not even good enough for sole possession of a playoff spot because Florida's ahead of them due to the regulation wins tiebreaker and then on the west you've got the sharks and the mammoth who are 24th and 26 respectively
Starting point is 00:20:47 in points percentage duking it out tied for the second wildcard slot in the west and that must be incredibly tilting right now obviously a lot of season ahead and I'm sure we're going to see a bunch of changeover but the sabers are in a great spot right now sitting in the top half of the league and yet somehow it still isn't good enough to be sitting in that much elusive playoff spot for them yeah I mean it's hard to catch up as compressed as the standings are we shouldn't ignore how compressed they are with the difficulty with which it the difficulty of leapfrogging teams once you've sagged early in the season it's it's wildly difficult like they needed the eight game win streak just to get you know to the fringes of the playoff race
Starting point is 00:21:32 and that's really all they've accomplished they have to maintain a super high level of play here especially in an eastern conference that you know i think's going to be a knife fight and that has a variety of teams, you know, in and around where they're at in the standings that I think we both agree are pretty damn good. I mean, you've got a devil's team that I expect to be better now. I mean, I expected them to be okay anyway, but I expect them to be better now, obviously, with Jack Hughes in the lineup. You've got a senator's team that, you know, can lock it down, right? I mean, they're a really good defensive group. We know what the Panthers are. We know what the capital. Like, who are you picking a fallout? I'm just thinking, though, like, the market currently
Starting point is 00:22:14 hasn't I think 35% implied playoff probability and that feels low to me just because the teams ahead of them like the Rangers who obviously are a public team yeah but them like the islanders the flyers like I like these teams but I do think that the sabers have a certain level of upside maybe to their game and I don't necessarily mean to be like viewing this through rose tinted glasses coming off on the heels of an eight game winning streak because that's obviously not going to necessarily continue they're going to lose some games moving forward, but now finally at full health, at least relatively so they're playing at a pretty high level, I think. And the stat that I love, and I'm going to keep bringing
Starting point is 00:22:56 this up to you as I build my Zach Benson MVP case, they're playing at 113 point pace this season with him in the lineup. Now, a lot of their losses early just came when he wasn't available, and a lot of other guys weren't as well, and it's a team that couldn't afford to lose that sort of depth, especially in the middle six. But this hasn't necessarily just been isolated to the eight games. And I think this has been bubbling for a while now. And I thought that game, to make the statement they did against the Bruins who had been pretty precocious this season, despite their recent results, was I think an important one for
Starting point is 00:23:27 them moving forward. Yeah. The, I mean, I do think the Benson factor matters just because we have often had a high regard for the top end talent. that the Buffalo Sabres have had. And I think if they're able to sustain a higher level of form, it's going to be that they have closer to a critical mass of really good NHL players, like Don, Benson, you know, that's sort of the ability to come at you
Starting point is 00:23:56 with eight or nine really good NHL level players is what feels different about this Sabres run than, for example, the fun times we had at the tail end of that 2022-23 campaign, right? and so I think that's what you're feeling like when you watch them play is that they're not just threatening with their top end on the ice they're able to outscore you and out shoot you sometimes too sort of down lineup
Starting point is 00:24:23 I do still feel like when I watch them play with and without Dahlion I mean the difference is mammoth and then on power really quick I think fundamentally the thing about because of his size, people want him to be a physical defender. You have an idea of what it should look like, especially the first overall defense.
Starting point is 00:24:46 100%. You have an idea of what you want it to look like, and it's never going to look like that because he isn't that player. But that doesn't mean he can't have that sort of impact. That said, I don't think he has consistently. I believe it's there. But I do think it's more of a transition-based game with, you know, some value-provise. by his height and his reach. I think, like, you know,
Starting point is 00:25:10 I don't want to say a name like Eric Johnson because it's got negative connotations to it as a first overall pick that, quote, unquote, didn't work out. But Eric Johnson had an incredible run playing big minutes for a really great abs team for years and was effective for years. And I do think that he was similar
Starting point is 00:25:28 in that he was a massive human being who didn't necessarily win by doing the sorts of things we expect, you know, a Hal Gil type defender to do, but was a more transition-based defender who succeeded in that sort of manner? I think power can do the same thing. But I don't think it's ever going to look the way that people want it to. And I think that's why he's always going to be a target for criticism. No, it's going to be an efficiency thing for him, right? The transition stuff with the quick breakouts, gaping up, coming back defensively. And then I still think, you know,
Starting point is 00:26:04 it hasn't necessarily been as consistent as it was when he first burst on the scene and completely allowed me in this specific element, but you could even see in this one, he had this beautiful play in the offensive zone in terms of like the read and then the ability to execute that pass of like that kind of diagonal cross seam pass from the point to the opposing circle to set up a great one-time opportunity. And just like his manipulation of the offensive zone is I think very impressive. And he's doing this. I think it's important to note like Mattia Samuelson has blown me away this season. partly because he had seven
Starting point is 00:26:35 NHO goals coming at this year and he already has six now and he's just like showing this offensive gear that I didn't really think he had in his game and then part of it is getting to play with Rosmonds Dalyne all the time but as a result of that especially with Michael Kesselring
Starting point is 00:26:46 missing so much time and then struggling upon returning multiple times power hasn't still done this with a consistent defense partner and so like the task that's being placed on his shoulders of carrying a defense pair with a suboptimal partner
Starting point is 00:26:59 in this tough environment and then doing so in a different way I think is why we have this sort of gap in evaluation, because I still really like the player, and I think you look at the underlying numbers, and it's all there. It's all passing the test of me. Him playing with Kesselring, though, against the Bruins is almost like that Sider-Edvinson pair that I've wanted to see for so long. Just like, now, those guys are obviously more freakish athletically than power in Kesselring, but the idea of two jumbo-sized sneaky good offensive defenders on the same pair is something, like, I'd very much, much like to get a 10-game look at that. I think it'd be a ton of fun.
Starting point is 00:27:36 All right, let's take our break here. And then when we come back, I want to get into the Sharks and Macklin Celebrini with you. You're listening to the HockeyPedio cast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. All right, we're back here in the HockeyPedio cast, joined by Thomas Trans for a Sunday special. Tom, as I said, before we went to break, I want to talk a little Celebrini with you. I was watching And another late game on Saturday Night's Slate was the Sharks beating the Canucks in Vancouver. And Celebrini and his return home, 2146, time on ice. Goal and assist, 16 shot attempts.
Starting point is 00:28:14 Well, and goal and assist really underrates. He should have had like five goals. I mean, honestly, that was one of those games where you check the box score afterwards. And you're like, he only had two points. It felt like everything dangerous went through him. He cooked the Canucks. He barbecued the Canucks in his hometown. on, sorry, I guess he's currently hails,
Starting point is 00:28:37 well, the town he grew up in. Right. The team he grew up cheering for. Yes, on Saturday night. Yes. I really enjoyed watching that game because obviously Celebrini's dominance, but it had so many other elements
Starting point is 00:28:49 that appealed to us, specifically at Colin Graff, just terrorizing. Ziproying in on, like, loose pucks and just being like, I don't care where I'm on this right now. I'm going to beat you to this. and look incredibly cool doing so, Colin Graff is awesome. I actually had a listener in the PioCast Discord to say that during the break
Starting point is 00:29:08 because there were no new shows, they were going back and listening to our guys episode right before the start, and you had the sneaky little shout out of your guy Colin Graff before the season even started. So I wanted to give you props for that. He's such a powerful skater. I mean, it's incredible to watch him work.
Starting point is 00:29:24 And he had a bunch of, you know, look, the empty netter and then also the breakaway where they drew the penalty. I mean, he just, like... He just decided he was going to get the puck. He just decided, and, you know, it's not as if Zeev Bouillon's not an impressive skater in his own right. You know, like Zeeb Williams is an incredible skater, and he just had steps on him on Graf. And Graf was still able to find him, I mean, win those battles.
Starting point is 00:29:48 That was insane. And then he had a bunch of other quiet deflections off of, you know, Kinnock's power play movement that frustrated them throughout the night. He rocks. but I think we've got to talk Cherniusov. Yeah, my guy, you're a Chernasov, yep. Sorry, how do I say it? Chernoshov. Chernashov.
Starting point is 00:30:07 Yeah. So he's your guy, because he's a new, my guy. He's an absolute unit. Yeah, he's a unit. His puck protection down low. And listen, he's five games into his NHL career. It's a big step up after, I believe, he started his first pro season earlier this year. His American League counting stats are off the charts, though.
Starting point is 00:30:23 Of course, especially at that age. And he steps in and Will Smith's out, and so he's running shotgun now. With Celebrini, it's only 65 minutes at 5-1-5, so incredibly small sample. Sharks are up 8 to 3 in that time. High danger chances are 27 to 10, and nearly a 70% expected goal share. He's got five points in those first five games, and I think he's totally past the eye test. There's certain things as an NHL winger that are going to just come with time in terms of utilizing that frame to kind of win certain battles and extend plays or get it out of your zone,
Starting point is 00:30:54 and I think that's going to get cleaned up over time, but you can just see the vision of what it's going to look like, and I think this runaway now of him playing with a guy like Celebrini is just so tantalizing a lot. I thought some of the details in his game, though, picking pucks off the wall on his back hand, feeling pressure, I mean, some of that connective stuff that I think you need to have
Starting point is 00:31:11 if you're going to compliment a player like Celebrini, not effectively not being wasteful with pucks in addition to being able to win them back for him, I felt like he, that stood out to me watching that game. It wasn't necessarily like the goal off the
Starting point is 00:31:27 Godette feed on the powerplay so much as it was some of those subtleties of the game. You know, I don't know that he's going to have the sorts of hands that a guy like Zach Nise, sorry, Zach Nise has in tight, but you know what? You just put Zach Hyman and Matthew Nyes together? I did, yeah. But that's what I'm talking about, like the big bodied, complimentary guy. So, you know, it was a Freudian slip, but a meaningful one. I feel like, I feel like maybe Chernoslav has the.
Starting point is 00:31:57 ability to be the Will Cooley I was promised this season just in terms of giving the sharks sort of one of those digger type top six forwards and that's a really exciting prospect for that sort of build here. I thought the Celebrini goal he set up was really important because what I've wanted to see over the past year and a half is Celebrini be afforded a few more of these opportunities in zone where he doesn't have to do everything himself
Starting point is 00:32:23 and he can kind of just like find that soft spot in the ice which he's so good at already. and just be the recipient of someone else making a play for him. And having a guy like Trinershov, who could win that battle down low and then get it out to him, I think it's just really fun to watch and celebrating. No, obviously just buries it immediately. And it's like, yeah, if we do this a bunch more times,
Starting point is 00:32:41 I think it's going to lead to a lot of cool goals. So let's just keep doing that. 100%. Well, and how quick that release was was outrageous. He had a couple of looks like that, too, in that game. He also did something so wild in that third period where he got a, he was the trail. like he was behind two guys ahead of him on what was sort of a slowly developing three on two in the in the neutral zone and he sort of received the puck it was not a perfect pass but he sort of received the puck and just instead of like moving it back to his forehand he just kind of hook past it and sent in created a two on one with it but it was just like a quick rotation of his stick that you know I know people are for example if you were watching the broadcast Ray
Starting point is 00:33:27 Ferraro dropped the Crosby comparison off the opening draw. Like the puck dropped and he was like... He was Jones going to get that one on. He was Jones. He was like, this guy's the most. But that's like to control a bad pass and then find a way to make a neutral zone feed that springs a two on one that's a completely unconventional pass. It's like that level of control, I think is what people are seeing in their mind's eye
Starting point is 00:33:52 when they drop that comparison. Like it's, it's not. how it's it's not a play that another player would even think of making but the level of control exhibited in that moment is just spectacular I mean even was it the Klingbera goal
Starting point is 00:34:08 where he beats Pettersen in the draw and he just gets down and just fishes it back cleanly to his defense minute and sets that up I mean he had one it was like a week or two ago now if you haven't seen it I highly recommend checking it out they were playing at home against the stars
Starting point is 00:34:23 and they lost the game but one of the goals he set up he's taking an ozone draw against Colin Blackwell and he wins it on his forehand through Blackwell's legs and then just skates around him and retrieves it and then it winds up setting up graph I believe in front of the net and it was like everything is just so slow for this guy and he's operating within that at an entirely different speed
Starting point is 00:34:43 that everyone else. It's such like a command of the game and you can visibly see that but it's cool that in year or two now you're already seeing him take that step at a very like defined part of the game like winning faceoffs We know it takes young centers off in at least a couple of years to get the strength and the timing down and the leniency from the officials to cheat sometimes occasionally and get away with it
Starting point is 00:35:04 and Leon Drey Saito is still trying to accomplish that last part waiting for officials to let him get away with it. But yeah, no, it's awesome. I mean, he's so fun to watch. That performance on Saturday night really felt like the, that felt like the sort of nuke showing, you know, that only 10 or so hockey playing humans are capable of in this league. Like that really did feel like that.
Starting point is 00:35:31 He just feels like he's gaining strength as the season goes on. Do you catch any Devil's Caps? I didn't. Okay. But I saw The Devils Live recently. Well, they finally scored a couple more than two goals, which is great. They have Jack Hughes back. Yeah, it's been still, even since he's come back, it's been a bit of a grind for them.
Starting point is 00:35:48 I still have some concerns, I think. part of it is personnel driven part of it is it seems like since shelton keeps come in i think by design they've wanted to like play a more mature two-way game sure and as a result they've taken away what made them so special when they first burst on the scene in 22 23 by just being this like nuke rush team yeah and the numbers reflect that they're just generating so much less there and then the other thing that's been strange i like esper brats scores two goals in this game one is on the power play off a nice feed from nico his year the other one is like the ultimate regression goal of of like spinning backwards near the blue line
Starting point is 00:36:25 and just floats one on net and it goes through seven bodies and past Logan Thompson. But I don't know what happened to his goal scoring and finishing over the past couple years. Like he's still so dynamic. He creates chances.
Starting point is 00:36:37 He's a great maker and distributor. He draws penalties. All of that's there. Just for three, four years now, like it's been a steady decline in terms of efficiency as a shooter and goal score. And I'm not sure what's going on there. I feel like we need to like do more work on that
Starting point is 00:36:52 and then have a big conversation about it because it is important as like a key member of this team's offensive engine in terms of explaining why they've been so poor at 5-1-5 particularly like they're 31st in the league this year in 5-on-5 goal scoring only the crack in are worse and half the season is without jackies of course but yeah i think it's an important conversation to have well they can't they can't win like that i mean that's not how they're not built to be a bottom-end offensive team and you know i'll be curious because i'm down to do that video with you but i'll be curious to see if it's a rush issue specifically because that would make sense yeah he's just not lifting the buck for whatever reason um i was having a chuckle because on the three on three overtime winner which
Starting point is 00:37:31 was just a great individual effort from jacob chickering who is an animal like he was out there for a minute and just saw an opening and just decided to go to the net and then bats at home to win it and it's like 15 goals now or whatever paul carter was out there and i was thinking about this we should create a list one day of like this particular player prototype which is one of my personal least favorites of like the toolsy winger who skates really fast and scores cool goals but as soon as they're away from the puck their feel for the game or processing or wherever you want to describe it just completely falls off the map and like the decision making and attention to detail is so poor and that's obviously the reason why they're a bottom six fourth line
Starting point is 00:38:15 guy as opposed to if you just watch a cut up of all their cool goals scored you'd be like this guy must be a superstar in this like and so I was thinking about that I was like man another former devil Miles Wood certainly comes to mind yeah I was thinking of a player you watch every day Jake de brusk as well obviously more productive than these guys but we should put together that list one day because those types of players just drive me crazy and I was like I don't understand why he's out there three on three right now and it wound up burning him in that game yeah the man the de brusk part of it you You said that that, like, wounded me. He's going to be a healthy scratch on Monday against the Seattle Cracken,
Starting point is 00:38:49 so clearly has not been working out for him this season. But he's, he at least has the one, like his work at the net front five on four is so good that I think it gives him a little bit of extra cachet. Yeah, he's certainly like a higher level of goal score as well. And the career results prove that. But there was a Canucks game earlier this year that I was watching. And the broadcast was talking about in there, like, this percentage of goals have come on the.
Starting point is 00:39:15 power play for de brusk. He's one of the league leaders and they're kind of presenting it as a good thing. Yeah. I think the story is actually beneath that a little bit, but, um, do you want to talk with David? Yeah. I mean, this run is incredible. So they did lose to the flames. Yeah. And I thought it was very impressive. We've like talked a lot over the past year or so about how much we appreciate the flames gumption in terms of obviously being under man from a talent perspective, but more so last year than this season but like out kicking their coverage they've bounced back certainly but they got absolutely beat down and the first leg of this back to back before the break and then come back at home and deliver obviously a much better effort in a victory but nonetheless mac david 13 games in
Starting point is 00:39:56 december 13 goals 19 assists so that's 32 points by my count and this is a quick scan on natural statrick the kings crackin blues and canucks don't have a single player this season with 32 points and he's done so in just this month with another game left. I believe he's been on the ice for 36 Oilers goals in these 13 games. There's 14 teams that haven't scored that many as a whole. Part of it has become, you know, the power play is obviously devastating that given goal he had against the flames with Drace Seidel was next level. Getting R&H and Hyman back has helped them a lot at 5-1-5.
Starting point is 00:40:36 I do still have a couple concerns with the Oilers. Part of it is going to be rectified when, Jake Wallman hopefully comes back because I don't know how many more games I can watch of Alec Ruggula playing full-time with Darnel Nurse and the results indicate that. And then there's a Trent Frederick conversation to be had because right now he's doing like the all-time Tony Snell meme of just cardio like 36 minutes tonight with zero zero zero zero zero he was doing that in the playoffs too like I don't I don't understand it's been especially bad like I gave him I gave him some grace last year because he was coming
Starting point is 00:41:10 It's hurt at the time of the trade, and I was like, you know, it's a tough spot, stepping right in and having a play in playoff environment. But now after a full off season, it has gotten worse. And there's seven more years of this left? Yeah, they're in trouble, man. Oh, man. Like, at least it feels like at home, sometimes players seem to be playing hurt. And then they play for long enough that they seem to get healthier, even though they never actually took time out of the lineup. it does feel like that's happened for Ekholm
Starting point is 00:41:42 across the past month and I feel like that's resumed the... We call that the Matthew Chachuk. Right, yeah. That's resumed the usual logic of Edmonton being basically peerless at the top of the lineup. But, you know, one thing about this McDavid run
Starting point is 00:41:59 that's so nutty is they're only shooting 12% five on five with him on the ice. Like, he's not even getting undue... Like, this isn't a bounces run. This is just him. Well, he decided that he was just going to start taking the puck to the net and shooting. Yes.
Starting point is 00:42:14 And this is what happens as a result. He did it that one year where he scored 60 plus goals. Yeah. But he just decided this month he was going to do it. And he's got 107 shot attempts in these 13 games. Well, I think it's a bad sign that he needs to. It's not great. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:42:28 But I do still think as they get healthier, I was looking at the market in terms of like the Pacific odds. Sure. And Vegas is still sitting in first. and they're still pretty heavily favored to win it and part of it might be just because they're going to get healthier themselves and they have a little bit of a lead here. But I do still think that the upside of the oilers is just an entirely different ballgame.
Starting point is 00:42:50 And we might not see it between now and the end of the regular season in terms of ramping up to full capacity and it might be more of a playoff thing. But yeah, all the odds, whether it's that or the Stanley Cup market or anything you look at are still relatively doubt on this team compared to what I am. And I completely understand the flaws and what the what the negatives look like
Starting point is 00:43:11 but we've been through this same song and dance the past couple years and it comes to a certain point where at least until you get to the final it just doesn't matter because the top end is that good. Yeah no and that's I mean I don't think you ever want to bet against McDavid and Drysaitle period but that doesn't mean that what's happened to hollow out this team's depth isn't going to cost them
Starting point is 00:43:34 what you know I mean I'd argue it already has the opportunity to win a Stanley Cup. It might. It shouldn't because of how electric they are. But, you know, it really might. And I feel like this season watching this team play, it's just the seams have been everywhere in a way that they weren't. Even when the team had dismal starts to the year,
Starting point is 00:43:58 the two previous seasons, I still was very confident that they were the best team in hockey. And now I'm very confident that they are, the best team in hockey in McDavid's minutes. And that's a very different conversation. And in tricidal's minutes. Well, sure. I had this, it was a couple weeks ago now.
Starting point is 00:44:18 Sorry, I'm, when I'm talking about McDavid's minutes, I'm talking about the minutes where those guys are on the ice. Well, I just, I do think, though, the distinction's important. I made this note when I did my, like, three hypothetical NHL All-Star teams through the first half of the season, and it was a couple weeks ago before McDavid really went on this scorching run and leads the league in scoring again. But I made a pretty impassioned argument that, like, Leon Drey Seidel has been the second best setter in the league this season
Starting point is 00:44:45 behind McKinn at a time because he plays all of these minutes with Podkowse and Savoy, um, Roslovich before he got hurt and then does it with inferior defensemen because McDavid typically plays with Bouchard and Echolm. Yeah. And the minutes. for the Oilers at 515 when Dry Settles out with anyone and McDavid isn't one of those guys
Starting point is 00:45:12 are still dominant and McDavid's wasn't until Hyman and Nugent Hopkins got healthy and came back and reunited this line and he started cooking and I just thought that was so impressive because part of what I love about Leon Dreisettle is like he's completely immune to whatever's going on around him because like you could play anyone with him and he's still going to be doing cool full length of the ice backhand saucer passes and one-time goals from weird angles and smoking a dart after the game and just doesn't matter. And he's going to be a 60% share a guy across the board at 5-1-5 with anyone you plays in one-o. And I think that's so impressive.
Starting point is 00:45:49 And he's going to finish an unholy percentage of his goals from completely absurd angles. I do think, do we need to remove Pod Colson from the list of unsatisfactory depth that the Oilers have? I feel like he's been a dog all year. No, he's been awesome. Yeah. But he's not Hyman and Ryan Nugent Hopkins. No, he's not a high-end finisher. I also, you know, the Hyman Nugent Hopkins of it all,
Starting point is 00:46:14 I do think also crystallizes one of the questions that we're going to have once we see this Team Canada lineup, which is, you know, the McDavid chemistry question, right? I really felt strongly that they never found the right fit for him at the Four Nations. I doubt he'd disagree with that, you know? That doesn't mean that he can't take over that tournament. But I'll just be curious to see what it looks like and who he ends up playing with. And, you know, Braden Point, I think probably was the most successful answer they found.
Starting point is 00:46:46 I'd expect we see some of that again. And yet it does feel like, you know, points almost being grandfathered onto this roster, right? I don't think that's a hot take exactly, given what his form has looked like throughout this season. Well, so what, they announced the roster on the 31st, I believe, on Year's Eve, and then Team USA's is on the second of January, and then you and I are going to be back for the next Sunday special January 4th, so we're going to circle back to that, and we're going to spend the entire show breaking down those two rosters. Do you want to end with, I've got a couple games to watch this week that I know our listeners love for us to identify. On Monday, you've got the Canucks versus the Cracken. No, I'm just kidding. Yikes. I think Cap's Panthers is going to be really fun. I think both teams, have been playing very chaotic, high-scoring back-and-forth games or no lead safe. I'm curious to watch Wild versus Golden Knights. Hopefully the Golden Knights start getting healthier.
Starting point is 00:47:40 I'm not sure if they're going to be so for this game. But I just want to get as many live viewings and reps of watching the Wild with Quinn Hughes as I can. For the time being, on Tuesday, you've got the triumphant return of Rick's receipts, front of the podcast in Vancouver. I know that you're going to be in attendance. Yes. After the Canucks played in Philly recently as well. like the NHLs do it doesn't feel like they're doing this a lot more this year where they're
Starting point is 00:48:04 like putting these east-west home and homes in very close succession that gives you a little bit of that series or like very brief series feel as opposed to one in October and one in April or whatever like I I enjoy that on Wednesday um we've got lightning at ducks which is a nice little matinee ahead of New Year's Eve yeah let's go I'm excited for Sabre stars I yeah I was going to say saber stars is high on my list that's more of a wake up the next morning have some breakfast and re-watch that for me because it's late enough in the night where I'm probably going to be
Starting point is 00:48:37 enjoying the festivities. Yeah. And then Saturday, well, you got the outdoor game on Friday, I believe. Right. But Saturday, Avs at Cains. And the first meeting between these two teams, which came early in the year in October, I believe,
Starting point is 00:48:52 was this back-and-forth five-four shootout game. It featured a million scoring chances. And so I want to watch that. The abs are going to go through a, a pretty tough test of road matchups to start the new year. And so I'm excited to see how that looks and if they get kind of pushed more the way they were in Vegas and what that leads to.
Starting point is 00:49:10 But that's my list here of games that I'm excited to watch this week before the next time we see. Yeah, by the way, I'm glad that we're getting that sort of a week today, the Aves versus the Panthers. I'm glad they're not playing back to back against Florida. I'm glad we'll get to see them because so many teams do the, you know, you'd get one of the, those opponents against the avalanche and with the avalanche playing a B2B.
Starting point is 00:49:35 And I'm excited that we'll get to see the avalanche in relatively normal circumstances play those two measuring stick games against, you know, the defending back-to-back champs and then the lightning who are, in my estimation, anyway, the best team in the east currently. That's going to be fascinating, although it sort of bleeds into next week. So, yeah, those, I think you've done a good summary there with me just wanting to shout out that that Dallas Buffalo game. I know Buffalo's win streak will be on the line when they face St. Louis, like earlier on in the week, but that Dallas game just feels like, for a variety reasons. One being that I actually think Buffalo is the profile of team that Dallas has
Starting point is 00:50:17 struggled with, relatively speaking, but also Dallas is so shockful of tactical news. Like, you can't make mistakes. You have to play winning hockey to not get picked apart by them. So I feel like for a young upstart team like the Sabres who we want to be in on because of the evident talent and yet we've been burned before by sort of the organizational immaturity, which hopefully they're beginning to leave in the past. I feel like it's just such a good test for both teams. Looking forward to them, man. What do you want to promote the way out? Well, you know, more Canucks should rebuild content at the athletic and more Canucks should rebuild content at Canucks talk. That's noon to 2 p.m., 6.50 a.m. in Vancouver or wherever you get your
Starting point is 00:50:59 podcasts on the Sportsnet Radio Network. Now, this coming week, I believe I'm co-hosting with you for, I think, four or five hours total. Yeah. So if you want more of the two of us just talking about hockey and I do Tune into Canucks Talk. On other days of the week
Starting point is 00:51:15 you can tune into Canucks talk. Subscribe to the PDOCs Patreon as well for extra episodes. Give us a five star review. Drans and I will be back as I said on January 4th for our next Sunday special. We'll talk about the Olympic rosters after they're announced. I'll be back very soon. I'm going to have AJ Hayfley on for an abs deep dive. A couple other fun shows
Starting point is 00:51:34 planned this week to make up for the week we took off. So thank you for listening to the Hockey Ocast streaming on the SportsNet Radio Network.

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