The Hockey PDOcast - Bear vs. Bull Case for Every Playoff Contender

Episode Date: December 28, 2024

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Thomas Drance to break down the bear and the bull case for every playoff contender at the holiday break. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filipovich. Welcome to the HockeyPedocast. My name is Dmitra Filipovich and joining me here for a Sunday special, except we're doing it on a Friday because the scheduling is a bit off thanks to the holidays and travel plans and all that good stuff that we're going to get into in a minute. Is my co-host Thomas Jans. Tom, what's going on, man? Hey, man, happy to be here accommodating you before you take off for tropical destinations unknown to ring in the new year. Thrilled.

Thrilled. It's going to be a good show. It's going to be a really fun one. We've got a fun concept here today, too. And thankfully, we're going two hours. We're doing a two-parter, and we're going to make it an extra long banger for everyone to ring in the New Year. It's the last show we're going to do for a little bit. We definitely need it because whenever you and I get together, we run super long,

even last episode. And people really enjoyed that Christmas gift concept. I thought it was a really fun little holiday treat. We had five or six other fun ones that we just left unwrapped, essentially, because we ran out of time. Now. And they were all the ones that would go to. contending teams, so we just instead spent all this time talking about Greg Cronin again.

Exactly. Classic. And the biggest perk for us today is, so we're doing bear and bulkase for every sort of viable contender or top team in the league. We're going to do the Western Conference ones in part one. Then we're going to shift over to the east for part two. The biggest perk is that by default, we can't even talk about the worst teams in the league today because we're focusing on the top one. So even if we wanted to, we wouldn't be able to do it today. Let's get into it. So the concept is I think we did a similar show this time last year, in fact, around the holidays. It's kind of a perfect point in the schedule for us to do it because we're coming off this holiday break. No teams have played for a couple days now. We're sort of at the midseason point. And so we're going to

provide the bear case, which is kind of like the optimistic one, things we like, reasons for being encouraged. We're sorry, that's the bull case. And the bear case is sort of red flags, warning signs, maybe reasons for pessimism on our part. Let's go team by team. I, of course, wrote them down here for the Western teams in no particular order. I started like, I was like, all right, I'm going to go by point percentage and then I went all over the map. Do you want to start the Golden Knights just because of the first on my list here? Yeah, let's do it. I think they're one of the most interesting examples here too, because I feel like a lot of my optimism about them is based off of a faith that the Golden Knights team we see today is not the Golden Knights

team we're going to see for game onto the playoffs. Right. And so, There's a level of faith that I think stems from their track record, the quality and depth of their defense. They're the completeness, the rare completeness of their defensive group in particular. The fact that I know what Jack Eichel and Mark Stone and, you know, that William Carlson and company look like in big games, right? There's zero yips watch with the Vegas Golden Knights. And then we get to this, you know, big red flag, which is how they control play five on five.

And so I feel like they're one of the more interesting ones because what does this, the bullcase for this team, I think is very obvious. They're complete. They're gigantic. They know how to win. They're impeccably coached. Yep. Bruce Cassidy sometimes puts stuff on tape that like wrecks teams for months. Yep. They actually have to adjust after they face the Golden Knights.

other coaches around the league watch what Cassidy does his game plans and rip some of it off. So, I mean, this is pretty close to a complete team with the exception of, hey, they don't have a lot of elite wingers. They're going to need that. And I think we're seeing some of the limitations of that in the early going in that, you know, I don't know that they don't just need a guy who can come in and be what Marion Gabrick was for the Kings back in the day, convert possession into goals, right? They don't just need a guy who can eat.

They need some guys who can help them set the table setters for sure. I think the bull case for them is predicated around this. It's their current position, which they're entering the holiday break first in the West, thanks to an 8-1 record in December. Yeah, you look at their strength of schedule over the next month or so and their ability to potentially pad that cushion and really solidify their spot atop the West. Right out of the gate, they play San Jose, Calgary, Montreal, Philadelphia, Buffalo, San Jose again, Islanders, Rangers. They don't play a team that's currently in a playoff position until a home game against Minnesota. So down January 12th with Mark Stone in the lineup.

They're 15, 4 and 1 this year. And those five losses were on the road, all of them to the Oilers, Kings, Lightning, Panthers, and Capitals. Pretty much five of the top teams in the league. So they've been taking care of business when Mark Stone is in the lineup. You mentioned Bruce Cassidy. I think that's an important note here because obviously he is the luxury of the personnel. Certainly to kind of execute this and really leverage it into a real strength for them.

but they're once again executing that vintage Cassidy defensive system that won in the Stanley Cup a couple of years ago to perfection this year. You look and it's like in terms of just pure shot volume they're giving up, their 20th in shot attempts. So they're conceding that. Their 20th also in ozone time allowed. But then you whittle it down, 12th in shots, third in slot shots, and the fewest inner slot shots.

So it's essentially a cascading effect where it's like all the volume quantity stuff doesn't look particularly favorable. and then as you increase the quality of a look, they become increasingly more difficult to get that against. And offensively, I think some of this has certainly been juiced by some inflated shooting percentages, although especially atop the lineup, you watch the way Jack Eichols play this year, how he's attacking off the rush, the cross-seam, kind of quick, concise passing between him and Barberchav and Stone when he's out there. It makes sense that they probably overperform their percentages a little bit or their expectations,

and they kind of really went all in on that in terms of like the wingerers. sort of brought in as well, right? Kind of like potential finishers or guys who could choose their percentages a little bit. And so they're a top five scoring team at both the power play in 5-1-5. Now you look and it's like, all right, their three leading goal scorers are Barbershev, who certainly plays with Lichael so that makes sense. But then Brett Howden, who already has double-digit goals, and then Pavlovakouye have who we love.

But it's also in terms of sorting by all the top teams in the league, and you're looking at their three highest goal scorers, that's probably the least sort of dubious list of any of the contenders you would pick out. The thing about, I do want to just shout out, though, Brett Howden. If he can stay healthy, right? I do think there's that, you know, maybe not to the extent that they got it out of Chandler Stevenson, but there's some potential for him to be, I think, a guy who actually

does contribute, like, at a second line rate on a winning team. He's been really good since they acquired him. It's just the health thing, the durability hasn't been there. Well, when we talk a lot about how the capitals of the best pro scouting in the league, those nights probably deserve some love there as well. pretty much since their origin. In terms of adding guys and part of it is because they have such a great infrastructure to sort of plop guys in and they have the head,

the sort of heavy lifters and needle movers to kind of let you just play a very simple game. But even Barbershev's a great example. I know that you are certainly much higher on him as a player because he really fits your particular niche of player types that you love. But what I saw from him in St. Louis, I never would have expected that in his range of outcomes was this type of season at 5-1-5 where he's just scoring a major. million goals and doing it in a very believable fashion too like he's a legitimate running mate this

here for jack ikel like the intricacy of the give and go passing they're doing cross-ice stuff it's like this is next level stuff if you just remove the nameplate you'd be like all right this guy must have been a former first overall pick that's just been doing this for his entire career and instead it's a guy who in their in his mid to late 20s that was kind of like a middle six grinder they brought in and turned into a top flight offensive producer there's times with the length he looks like a meaner version of what toronto used to get out of Van Riemsdike. Yeah.

You know what I mean? And I say that with the highest praise. I'm talking like the Van Riemsdike on the Bozac Kessel line, like just that long goal scorer, but also super disruptive, except that Barbashev also hits through guys. It's a ton of fun to watch. You know, I do think, too, they've gotten, you know, Dorofiev is one of my guys. I mean, I'm a big fan. But there is inconsistency in his game.

I think one thing that I've liked watching them play, season though, has been, for example, guys like Alexander Holtz, who I'd watch in New Jersey and get frustrated with, I thought, especially given the fan conversation around him last season, where I was like, he needs to play more. And I was watching him play and thinking there's not a lot of dog in that player. I think you've gotten a really consistent, or Cassidy has gotten a really consistent work rate out of Holtz. And I think same with Olson. I think they've got a lot out of Olison, whether the underlying numbers reflected or not, I think what you're seeing in terms of sort of the strength of their infrastructure, the ability to plug guys in who we've thought of

one way, and all of a sudden you're seeing them do Golden Knights things and they can actually do it pretty well and have clearly a pretty set of understanding of the expectations that'll keep them in the lineup, keep them contributing. I think that's been a ton of fun of watch, actually. Well, another important knowing this is the final one and they can move on to another team is while Bill Carlson missed the first 10 games of the year, and I think Rad had a big impact on their underlying numbers. You watch just what he means to that team. The game in particular, the sticks in my mind is, I think it was the winning goal in that

game they hosted the Canucks recently in the effort that he puts in to create that one. He's played 345-1-5 minutes this year. They've given up just 10 goals in those minutes. Like, he's just such a difference maker for them as well. And so that's a key piece that just didn't play the first 10 games. I think that factors into kind of like the season-long underlying profile that we spoke about. it necessarily is glowing as a team that's first in the Western Conference. That play was freakish and I encourage people to go watch it because it spins off Pew

Souter who's, you know, I know Pugh Suter doesn't get a ton of headlines, but in terms of positional defensive play, I mean, honestly, a top line caliber defensive forward, that move, like he puts him in hell. And I don't know that I've seen Pue Suter lose a battle that cleanly in 18 months of watching him play every game. So, I mean, just a testament to. how good Carlson is, especially in moments when it feels like space is at a premium. Okay, let's stick with the Pacific Division then. We're actually going to do this logically

in a way that makes sense as opposed to advancing around the West. The Edmonton-Oilers, who are assessed in the league right now point percentage, but their first still, as they have pretty much all year, even when they were at their lowest, on the Stanley Cup betting market since November 7th, 15-4-1 record, plus 28 goal differential. The power play notably, I think everyone would have expected it, but after a very sluggish start, even when McDavid was healthy. They're up to sixth in goals per 60 on the power play during that stretch. There's still only 15th for the year, and I expect that to get into the top 10 by season's end as well.

Now, we noted this, and we don't have to speak too much individually about the Andre Seidel and about the Kulak nurse pair, because we did a whole deep dive on that in a recent episode. But I did just want to note that while there's going to be moments where Stuart Skinner certainly looks shaky and gives up a bad goal, and I think the lasting perception or bias we have about the is they're an offensive juggernaut, but defensively, are they reliable and stingy enough to win at all? Pretty much the entire season, and it's still true to form, a lot of their success is actually been driven by their defensive metrics.

They're second in the league, and few expected goals against the loud, and inner slot shots allowed their top 10 in goals against. Offensively, of course, they're in the top five and pretty much everything across the board, except for goals because of that shooting percentage that's been lagging behind a little bit. but Zach Hyman, who early in the year obviously had inflated expectations based on the outrageous goal scoring season he had last year, couldn't buy a goal, he has 10 goals in December, has scored in eight of his nine games he's played. And so, yeah, I don't know.

Do you have any other notes that we haven't already covered at pretty great length on this Oilers team in terms of bear versus bull positioning? I know both you and I have expressed the potential concern about just foot speed in general because of the young players in McLeod, Broberg, and Holloway that they lost this past summer and didn't really replace, right? You brought in Arbidson, who once again has been banged up quite a bit. Jeff Skinner was trying to find his footing with the team. But I do think you saw proof of concept where they brought in Casperi Capitan.

And Casperi Caponin shouldn't be that big of like, ah, yeah. Oh, finally we got a guy. Right. And it mattered a ton. So I still think they have to be conscious of the team speed element here. I think it's important that as they add anything they do, I don't think they can afford another. I mean, ideally if they're able to bolster their lineup with one more guy who's more in that Yanmark Arvinson, Kaepinen mold, I think that would pay dividends. And, you know,

and ideally a guy who really can help dry cycle on the second line, like, but bring that speed. I mean, I think that's still sort of a need. I do think there's, I think the sort of what would it look like if the Oilers met their match aside from a team exploits Stort Skinner East West, right? Or Darnell Nurse struggle with the taste and makes mistakes

the way that it did last season. You know, because I think those are the two lingering concerns that this team as a group needs to answer. I think they can, like, you know, if you need to execute perfect cross-seam passes to expose Stuart Skinner, like that's

that's a flaw that a defensive, a defensively capable team should be able to deal with, right? And I do think lateral speed remains an issue for Skinner. I don't think the Oilers are going to be able to bolster their goaltending before the playoffs. And I don't know that they should. Like I think it's pretty hard to integrate new goaltenders into teams in midstream. So, you know, Skinner's, I think, perfectly fine. Average goaltender bounces back pretty resilient. That to me is obviously a risk for them. I think that's a big part of their bull case. But I I don't think it's the headline item.

I still think it's the team speed. Yeah. I think there's a world where, and Vegas probably needs to add a piece to be this team. But, you know, maybe it's a team with like Winnipeg's depth, right? Or maybe it's a team with, you know, Dallas if they're able to add a puck mover. Where you get into the playoffs and there's a team that's just genuinely throwing a fastball in terms of skating speed. And no matter how many incredible skill plays you make or no matter how much the fact that Connor McDavid, moves faster than everyone else sort of hides it. It's too much on him from sort of the

like warp speed to a dominance angle, which I think this Oilers team needs to play to accentuate McDavid and that I think they played when they were at their most lethal last year. And I think this is going to require some really strong self-scouting and kind of like recognition of where they're at because a lot of off-season or sort of a lot of trade deadline moves are generally not the player type they really need. The one you sort of there, right? It's not kind of like this heavy veteran guy who can just, either if it's the defenseman, just kind of block shots or if it's a forward, just kind of live around the net. They already have that. They need almost to go the opposite direction of getting someone

more fleet of foot. We should have Warren Vogel as another player who obviously divided it and had an element of that to his game as well. I mean, they've compensated for whatever concerns that lingers still about the goaltending because they just always have the puck. You watch them in their first in the league in zone time. They cycle it better than anyone. They obviously have in their pocket. We talked about how Vegas in their back pocket as a wild card has whatever addition they make in season. For them, it's either in a series when they're down or the offense is stagnate. They just put Tricyel and McDavid together. And this year they've taken their game in those shared minutes to an even greater height than it's been in the past, which is freakish to think about. It's funny. You look at,

I mentioned the top goal scorers for Vegas. Fredmonton, the Andrei Seidot faces them with 24 and he's having an all-world season. McDavid at 15. Hyman 13 off of this. stretch he's been on, and they didn't even have a single forward or a single player in general with seven goals this season beyond that, which is kind of crazy. Like, they have a bunch of guys just stuck at six. And so maybe some more sort of scoring depth, particularly for a faster forward, would help quite a bit. But I think they're pretty well set up.

You watch the way they've played over this past whatever six-week stretch, and it should strike fear into teams. Oh, yeah. This is the fastball that we've been waiting for that we saw at the end of last year, and the reason why the market has been so high on them, regardless of what their win-loss record has looked like. I'm trying to think of the game. It was the Bruins game, right?

Just like 10 days. Yeah, they were trailing by a couple goals and then they really had to like kind of dial it up just to go back. But I mean, if you're any other team in the league, right? If you're any other team in the league watching the last 10 minutes of that game and just, you know, they end up getting the goal and it's a classic McDavid rush, right? Swayman completely helpless. The Bruins defense completely helpless. But there's, you know, a dry sidel near miss at the side of the net. there's like five or six different scoring chances that are created with just a level of skill

that I don't know that any other team can muster one of them. And they just repeatedly like entry after entry, you're seeing moments where it's like, oh, oh, you know, you're audibly gasping at some of the skill on display that they're able to muster in those negative game scripts. And I just don't see anyone, I don't see any other team capable of hitting that gear. next up on the list and a team that's going to have to try to hit that gear as I try to do a segue here,

the LA Kings who are on pace, 104 points in the Pacific, and they're kind of faking it till they make it here. And currently, on pace for a fourth straight round one meeting with the Edmonton Oilers because they are right now locked into that two, three matchup in the Pacific.

The Christmas Gifts episode we did last week, one of the ones we didn't get time to unwrap and award to a team was picking your first round opponent, and that was obviously designed for the LA Kings just to avoid their own personal house of horrors that they look like they're going to face yet again. Now, on the on the bull side, the defensive environment is very legit. And it has been the case for years, obviously, so it's not in anything necessarily new or groundbreaking,

but their first and expected goals against, third in goals against first and shots allowed, second in slot shots allowed, fourth in fewest ozone time allowed. And the reason why I say that's especially impressive this year is because everyone's made a lot of Drew Dowdy not playing yet, and that's certainly a big thing because he led the team in Ice Time last year. But their second top minute getter on the team last year was Matt Roy, who also hasn't played for the team this year. And so they compensated for it by putting Vlad Gavrokov and Mikey Anderson together, and they've been arguably the best defense pairing in terms of pure shutdown stats this season. They've gotten contributions out of Brand Clark and

Jordan Spence certainly. But I think that defensive environment provides them with hope, maybe not in an Oilers matchup because the Oilers are so uniquely positioned to break through that with the sheer talent. They have atop the lineup. If they face someone else, I don't know, whether it was Minnesota, obviously they have Capriza on it, but if it was Minnesota or Winnipeg or someone else in round one that didn't just have that pure fastball the Oilers have, I would actually feel pretty encouraged that this

combination of defensive environment and kind of opportunistic scoring the top of lineup would give them a legit fighting chance in that matchup. I just don't really see it against the Oilers. I feel like it's kind of a case of the same thing yet again. And so I guess that would be both the bear and the

bull case in a one, right? It's kind of a repetition I guess of what we've seen in years past and unfortunately the end of the road doesn't look any different than it has in the past three seasons. No. And which takes nothing away from You know, like the way that guys like Spence and Brandt Clark have stepped up and drew Doughty's absence. I think the recognition that guys like Mikey Anderson are finally getting for being, you know, bona fide top pair stud defenders.

What's fascinating about L.A. is, you know, I think they're playing genuinely some of the best five-on-five hockey in the sport. I mean, outside of the teams we've covered so far, like Edmonton-old. as the Oilers, but I'd say on form, what we're seeing night to night from the Kings is actually more impressive than what we're seeing from Vegas. It's just that once the playoffs roll around, we kind of have a sense that Eichel is of a caliber of Gamebreaker where maybe they have a shot at volleying some of what the Oilers are going to be able to throw at them. We have none of that confidence, nor should we, with sort of LA's best players. And I think then we get to sort of one big line item on the bear case for the Kings,

which is, you know, this hasn't been the year that Byfield took the step we all wanted him to, right? And I think until whether it's him, I mean, Turcotte's shown some signs of life, that's nice to see. But they need another star, right? It's not that they need Fiala to be at his best

and Kopodar to keep turning back the clock and Adrian Tempe to remain a absolute demon off the rush. Like all of that's in place. it's they need another star player. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, but I feel last year, 20 goals,

21 primary assists this year, just six goals and three primary assists so far now. I think they've stumbled upon something. I don't think it's a long-term solution, but like they've been playing him with Vogel and Genoa and their results have been quite good. And they're like at least playing with pace and kind of having the puck a lot. But they just need him to,

to become more alpha in terms of just like taking control of the situation. Yeah. Initiating, shooting more himself as well. And until that happens, I think we're going to be left with questions. They're middle of the pack and scoring. No team generates fewer interslot shots per game than they do. They just don't really have a lot of recourse for breaking into the middle of the ice.

And so come a playoff series, they're going to have their opportunities to counter against a round one matchup against the Oilers, but they're just not going to be able to trade punch for punch with them. And it's going to be like they would just essentially need to shut the Oilers down. And we've seen that McDavid and Troy Seidel, whether it's on the Power Play or playing together in five or eventually going to get there. Yes. The world we're living in hockey-wise,

where goal-tending, say, percentage is below 900, right? Fundamentally, your best players need to be your best players. I know that sounds like a John Madden sort of solipsistic sort of take on this, but, you know, I think a lot can be explained by, if you look around the league, I think a lot is explained by, oh, Caprizov is just absolutely, firing Hadoicans on a game to game basis. You know, like how are the Vancouver Canucks

maintaining staying afloat despite all of these absences and all of this apparent discord and, you know, on and on. Quinn Hughes is destroying people, right? Why can no one hit Edmonton's fastball? I think we have an idea of why, right? Yep. The Kings right now anyway, you know, they're still, they're still leaning on

sort of this older way, of players added kind of at the start of their rebuild until they get that push until the guys responsible for winning them games. So the guys, you know, they've added that are still under the age of 23, 24, they're kind of going to be capped and we kind of know what that ceiling is. It's beating the Oilers twice in seven games. Yeah. I will say you mentioned Turcotte and his kind of role playing on that AAA line with, yeah, Hansa Kopitar and Adrian Kempay. Also, Alex Laferra-era has impressed me this year because I thought last year, his shooting percentage is really low. He missed on a ton of great opportunities. I think a big

part of the perception of the year Pierluge Dubois had in LA last year, and certainly he wasn't blameless, and there were motor and effort issues that haven't really been the case this year in Washington. But part of it was like he would just set up a guy like Laferrier, and it would just be instead of a crest of a goal, and he'd be like, all right, well, he didn't have any points today. And it's like, well, he did everything he could. The shooter just wasn't really rewarding him for it. Laferrier has increased the shooting percentage, has scored a. bunch has created more as well. So they've got some nice pieces here on the edges in terms of that sort of younger generation that you're talking about, but ultimately to reach whatever end goal it is

that requires by field just leveling up the way we thought it would. And we're talking about them in relation to Vegas and we're talking about them in relation to Edmonton. And, you know, I think those are five teams or two of the top five teams that I'm most expecting to be raising, you know, Lord Stanley's mug come June. It's sort of against that. level of competition where I think the Kings seems really begin to show. But you do, you know, if the conversation is about anyone that's not those two, Carolina and Florida, I think we're, and New Jersey, right? Other than those five, I think we're having a more complimentary or flattering conversation. It's just that that final hump, that, that hump that,

that, unfortunately for them, they have to get over in round one. Yeah. Is significant. Yeah. High, steep. As it were. All right. Let's take our break here, Tom. And then when we come back, We'll do, we've got two more Pacific Division teams that we're going to wrap up part one with the Central Division. You're listening to the Hockey P.D.O.cast streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network. All right, we're back here in the Hockey-Ocast. We're doing our Bear versus Bull case for all the West teams here in part one of today's show. Let's stick with the Pacific Division. Let's do your Vancouver Canucks Tom, the team that you cover on a day-to-day basis. They're 13th in league and point percentage at three points up now on Utah with the same number of games played. There are two points up on the Calgary Flames with the same number of games.

games played, so they've certainly got a couple of very interesting teams, and we'll talk more about Utah. We're not going to cover Calgary today, and it's not meant as a sign of disrespect. It's just because we've already spoken a bunch about what they've done this year. I feel like we've covered enough ground on the flames, but on the crux side, defensively, I think they're an interesting team because you watch them play, and there's been a lot of holes in their game that weren't really there last year. Yes. And I don't think an excuse is that Thatcher Demko hasn't been there, even though he's obviously an all-world goalie, because Kevin Lankinen has been more than up to the task in terms of covering that up. While Demko was out, he was phenomenal. Also, his biggest

issue has been low danger shots, yes, right? Like against the shots that he should be saving, he's been every bit what Demko was last year. The issue has been like Alex Pietrangelo unscreened 60 footers, right? I mean, that's where Lankin's seams have shown. And that's not what we're talking about. We're talking about the volume at which the Canucks are being. being punctured for, you know, like seemed odd man rushes. They're like they gave up five in a period to the St. Louis Blues, inner slot shots of that stuff that they absolutely did not do, especially in the last 50 games of the regular season last year that's crept into

their game. And, and yet, Dim, what's sort of fascinating to me is not every night. Yeah. You know, the Canucks are like one of those older players who can still look elite on any given night, but they're not a lead over the course of 82, right? Like, that's what their defensive game looks like. If you bump into them, if you're watching them on the right evening, if you're watching them against Colorado or Florida earlier this month, you'd say, hey, that looks an awful lot like the Knucks team that people thought out a shot at winning the Stanley Cup last year.

But most nights, if you're watching them every night, the gaps in their defensive game, and the gaps in their defensive work rate is pronounced. Well, and that's the thing, because if you look at the public metrics, like Natural Statrick, for example, they have the them eighth in terms of eighth fewest expected goals against allowed. Spor Logic paints a much more bearish case. They're all the way down to 20 second. And I think part of that is exactly what you're saying. I think the rush opportunities they've been conceding are much more frequent than they

were last year. And I think part of that is a byproduct of what we spoke about last season, which was they were just having a dream season in terms of goal sequencing. Like they were coming out of the gate super strong. I don't want to take credit away from Rick talking and the job he didn't be hiring the team because I think there was certainly in L. of that and he deserved to win the Jack Adams accordingly. I think part of it comes down to preparation.

Not all of it. There's still some good luck, but I think they were night to night prepared. They jumped teams out the gate, you know, and then they were able to keep building those leads. Yeah. But I think it's, I mean, first off, it's, it's much more random. You could also make the case that they're coming into this year. They're not going to take anyone by surprise because obviously they had such a good year

last year. They're kind of middle of the pack or even bottom third in the league in terms of time leading this year. And so I think just the game scripts have lent themselves to maybe be. Being a bit more exposed defensively, obviously the route they chose to go in terms of the defensive personnel they added. This offseason, I don't think did them any favors. So there's that part of the coin.

The offensive part is maybe the more worrisome part to me. They're 28th and shots. They're 27th in slot shots. They're down to 4.7 rush chances per game on average. It's almost impossible. They're the only team in league to be under five. I really thought that last year was the nadir in terms of rush chance generation. They made a big emphasis on bringing in speedy wingers, trying to open up the offense a bit more to start the year.

And then now at the 34-35 game mark, they're even worse at that area of the game than they were last season. And part of this is they only have five combined five-on-five goals from their top two centers in J.T. Miller and Alias Pedersen, so that's certainly not helping. But this team with Quinn Hughes on the ice has a compelling case for being a contender. unfortunately he's only one man and he can only play 25 27 minutes at the high end extreme and in the other minutes they just they're the worst offensive team in the league like oh right now anyway right now anyway and and not for a small stretch of games like since j t miller took his personal leave which was late november this is a 18 game sample now we're talking about they're the worst offensive team in the league even including the minutes the quinn hues is on

the ice right i mean this is we're now at a point where the level at which they're generating is untenable. So what's the bull case for the Canucks? It's honestly not different than it was last year just with, I think, to some extent, a lower floor, right? The bull case for this team remains that the Canucks get into a game against a team like Edmonton or Vegas can't hit their fastball five on five. And it's not that they're ventilated or surrendering a ton of chances.

It's that in two crucial games, they're going to generate something like 33 total shots on goal and score three goals and their season's over. And that's literally the script that we saw play out in game six and seven against the Edmonton Oilers last year where, you know, as much as the Oilers ended up putting up something of a crooked number on them in one of the games and, you know, the Canucks battled back to make Game 7 kind of interesting in the last 30 seconds or so. there was nothing going on for the Canucks. It looked like they needed a bounce to get a goal. And, you know, we see this from the Rangers against the Florida Panthers. A really good example last year.

But you see it every year as the playoffs go along. You get into these games where one team has the other, the others number has a higher five-on-five gear. The other team's just praying for a goaltending performance or a bounce that, you know, goes their way, forces overtime, you know. That's where the Canucks could be if they can't find a way to control play

and generate at a much higher clip than they have at any point this season. Okay. So let me quickly do the bear case, though, because, or sorry, the Bull case, because that's the bear case. I know what it is. And this team's game is trending so poorly that I think it feels a lot more compelling to me as an observer, right? But I don't want to disregard, like I just cited that 18 games since Miller left

lineup. Okay, the first 16, though, the defensive metrics were well off of what they managed the year prior. But, you know, by shot rate anyway, they were like 11th in the NHL, 5 on 5. Okay, well, that becomes workable, right? If you're able to marry what we saw from this Kinnock's team when they didn't have Demco, but they had Heronic, they had Miller, they had Hughes shooting absolute lasers out of his eyes, apparently. They had Brock Besser for most of it. Pedersen wasn't even himself, right? Like, Pedersen hadn't necessarily grinded into gear the way he, you know,

if you have the Pedersen from the last 18 games in the first 16, maybe it looks even better. Point being, at that moment, anyway, it looked like they'd gotten to the point where, hey, their attack might have just enough venom that when married to the defensive form they showed last year, even if we're not seeing it yet, then we're looking at something real, right? But as the injuries piled up, the offense fell off massively,

and the defensive game has had to tighten up, but hasn't tightened all the way up to where it was last season when they had Lindholm and Zadora, Avony, and Cole in the lineup. So you're sort of at this impasse. I guess what I'm saying is there's, as much as there's a lot of recent evidence that this team might be trending in an actual, like a genuinely troubling direction. I also think the start of the season,

the first 16 games we saw this team play. Not a conclusive sample, but not one that I'm going to write off either. Looks to me like, like the bull case. Looks to me honestly like an example of a really strong defensive team with excellent goal-tending and high-end finishing that generates just enough to avoid getting,

you know, kicked or sort of have their head held below water by a superior team five on five while also able to provided they can also limit chances the way they did last season. Well, yeah, I think we saw a firsthand example of the bull case

in the two recent games they played, which you mentioned off the top. Right. At home against the Panthers and then against the avalanche essentially shutting them out until the final minute or two minutes or whatever.

And so that's the team that we saw for a lot of last year. They clearly are able to tap into that at least occasionally still. And so that's the way they need to play. I just, I have my concerns about the how realistic it is to expect a team to just play that way.

Now in a playoff series, tapping into it for a two-week stretch. Yeah, much more doable, especially with a bit more time off and prepping for the same opponent. I think that's feasible. But that's why we've seen this regular season for a variety of reasons,

but that being one of them, be a bit of a grind for them. It's just like a very difficult thing. They did it for so much of last year, regardless of how well coached and well prepared you are to be playing at that level in terms of like structure and attention to detail. is very difficult to do.

And that's why we prioritize teams with pure game breakers at the top of the lineup because they cover for a lot of your sins. Otherwise, it's like you don't have to play the perfect game. You just need a couple of opportunistic goals that they create single-handedly and you're good. And so the connects are relying to an ungodly amount on Hughes. And that's another part of the bull case as well.

Like if he's going to be playing 28 to 30 minutes in a playoff game and be controlling the puck and the ice and tilting it the way he has, all of a sudden now you're cooking. gas, the issue is that it's like, is it fair to expect them to keep doing that for not only all 82 games, but then into the playoffs? Yeah. And I'd just add the other thing is the teams with a lot of speed up and down the lineup have really stressed this team out. Yeah. Even when they played well, you know, we've seen it with Edmonton, but we've really seen it with like Carolina,

New Jersey, and even Columbus, like teams like that, teams with a ton of juice, really, this Kinex team can really struggle to hit those teams fastball. The last Pacific Division team, I wanted to include the Utah Hockey Club. We already spoken about them, but they have central. Okay, oh, there you go. You're right. I don't know what I'm saying. You're used to the old alignment with the former Arizona coyotes, zombie coyotes.

Of course. Okay, well, let's do them anyways, just quickly. That's where I all through it. You know, you know I love doing the Utah. So at 5-on-5, 12th in shot share, 12th in high to injuret, 10th and expected goal share, 9th in goal-share. They're 14th in the league in all situations, goal differential. They've climbed up the 38% playoff odds.

Their betting line is plus 106. Now, that's a massive drop compared to like the Knoxura minus 340. The aves who are right there in the standings, but are minus 620 themselves. And I think that reflects the level of confidence in these teams getting it together. But they're ahead of the flames still, and that's why we included them here. The thing I wanted to shout out with them that I think is worth monitoring. In terms of one goal games, and I think we acknowledge that there's more randomness. and that certainly, especially as games get into overtime and kind of it's very valuable to bank

extra points, but likelihood of doing so is kind of more of a coin flip. There's seven, five, and six this year in one goal game. So they've gotten a win in only seven out of their 11 or 18 one goal games they play, which is 27 in the league in terms of point percentage. And the other teams are the ones you'd expect. It's the Blackhawks, Sharks, Sabres, Predators, like, it's like the bottom piece. And so I don't think they're a cat, that caliber of team, if they can kind of squeak out a few of these more closely contested games, and part of that might be chalked up to being kind of a more younger, inexperienced team that certainly might play a role in this. But I think their underlying metrics are certainly worthy of including them in this tier of maybe Stanley

Cup contenders, but like viable playoff teams that are doing a bunch of things really well. I think we should call them contenders. The very least, because we're not waiting these equally. Of course. We're including the bear versus bull for all the teams we find interesting. Well, and Bear versus Bull, I think, for teams that have, you know, long shot Stanley Cup chances. Yeah. You know what? I mean, because I do think it makes sense to some extent to talk about Utah in a different way than we talk about Calgary. Yeah.

And that's not to disrespect the fact that I've been wildly impressed with the Calgary Flames over the course of the season. You know, the betting markets actually have them have the Utah Hockey Club behind. Calgary in terms of their Stanley Cup odds plus 6,000 versus plus 5,500. I'm materially wrong. I'm telling you. I think that's materially wrong. And Utah does need a lot to go their way. Don't get me wrong to get to the point where, but what you just cited is it, right?

What you just cited is is a big part of this like sort of growing trail of breadcrumbs. Yeah. Right. And we've seen this story play out before, right? young team had flashes last season. We're in the thick of a playoff race in the Western Conference. Before the relocation news, yeah. Yeah, until the relocation news dropped and they lost, what,

was it 17 of 18? Like it was an epic death spiral to close out the sort of Arizona chapter of this franchise's existence. But their underlying profiles spectacular. There are not just like one high-end star-level player. there's three guys in Keller, in Cooley, and in Gunther, they're all producing at roughly a point per game clip. They also happen to all compliment each other pretty nicely on the power play,

which is a ton of fun. They've got stability now. That crowd is pretty good. That crowd is pretty good. And how many times have we seen this play out, right? Upstart team gets it together, starts playing fun hockey, then starts playing winning hockey, but maybe not with that sort of battle-tested teeth, right,

that you kind of need to garner over time. The results don't necessarily catch up to the form when you watch them play. And with Utah, it's not just like up-tempo fun offensive hockey, right? They're really good at beating pressure teams five-on-five. Like they're really good at breaking four checks, at playing hard themselves, at pressuring teams down ice. But, I mean, there's a, there's a maturity, I think, actually, in how they play as a group five on five. We so often see these teams be so much more imposing over the latter half of the season.

And then when you throw in the Ryan Smith factor, the new ownership group, the aggressive ownership group, the new market thing, that the fact that if this team's hanging around the race, there's different incentives, maybe great. greater incentives for them to buy and buy aggressively. And then the NBA, the experienced NBA owner part of it where if you're going to buy maybe buy a star, right, spend spend the money to get the guy who really moves the needle, which, you know, Utah might view slightly differently, given the complexion of their ownership group than some other teams. And they have all the assets to do it. They have all these picks and they have all this young talent to go out and take those big swings. I mean, I think when you put that together, they might be the most intriguing long

shot on the board, especially at plus 6,000 odds. Well, and they've gotten only 85 total combined as a season out of Jersey and Marino, right? And so that's part of it. I think the other thing that would encourage optimism is the drivers of that success that you mentioned, and I think you put it perfectly, are all the young guys that you would figure would just get better in terms of adding these reps particularly, like you look at Gunther and Cooney and they're up, I think, 23 to 10 in their 5-1-5 minutes together. Coolly's on pace for 70 plus points, Gunther's on pace for nearly 40 goals. This is obviously invaluable for them, but they're actually the types of players that I figure would maybe even level up as the year goes along a little bit, as opposed to if you're just relying

entirely on this team element of veteran older players and it's like, all right, by game 60, injuries are piling up, they're slowing down a little bit. This should be a team that should actually be able to leverage that into playing better, especially if they get reinforcements. So I thought there is certainly worth shouting out because they're really fun to watch. They've been playing so much better lately. And if they could just kind of grind out a couple of these close games and win a bit more often than those than they have, all of a sudden, I think they're going to be right there firmly in the playoffs.

So. Well, and we should expect them to, right? Like, I honestly think we're at the point where we should expect them to. Whether or not this is the year that Utah makes waves as a quote unquote real contender, right we should expect at this point it shouldn't be a secret that Utah is coming right it's just it's just a question of sort of what velocity what what sort of shape that takes over the over the balance of this season or whether or not it's it's another year away honestly when I when I sort of look at it when I look at when I watch them play when I look at the underlying profile when I just think about sort of how this story has looked in NHL history. This is a team to take seriously. This is a team that I think is a real threat to upset sort of the established mix in the Western Conference right now. Okay, I agree. We're in the central now, as you noted, because Utah is part of the Central Division of the NHL. The Winnipeg Jets were atop right now, they're 25, 10, and 1, second in the West. They have

a five-point cushion for first in their division. They have a 20 and 6 record, most notably to me, in the full games Nikola Eilers has played. They had this three. week stretch where they fell off a little bit to start the month. And that was kind of coincided with him being out their offense really sort of flatlined. They've looked better since he came back. Their power play has been red hot all year after being a real weak link for them last season. They're generating like 13 goals per hour there. A lot of it is shooting percentage driven. But as we note, the power play is an area where maybe not shooting 24% the way they have, considering no one else in the league is even above 20. but with the personnel they have, the continuity there,

adding Eelers to that top unit this year. I mean, you look at Sheifley, Connor, Valardi at the net front, Eelers, Morrissey, that's a nasty group. So I would expect their power play to be quite efficient. So I'm not that worried about that. Here are the couple things that I want to know about them. One is Connor Hellebuck's workload

because he's once again on pace for 64 starts the way he was last year. On one hand, I can't fault them because A, he's one of those few goalies that sort of earned the ability to call his shots, and he clearly prioritizes and puts great stock into his availability and, like, how valuable he is. And we should, and we should, too. But if they are going to have this lead, I would like to see them, especially as we get

down the stretch, maybe he kind of ease up a little bit just to keep him a little bit more fresh heading into the round one. I don't think that's the reason why the wheels fell off last year, like, at the ad line, just completely nuked them off. offensively, but I would just like to see that for them, especially if they keep staying atop the way they have. That's a luxury you earn yourself to kind of buy your goalie a few days off. On the blue line, Neil Pionk with Dylan Sandberg versus without, and Sandberg, I believe, broke his foot a couple weeks ago. He will come back, but the splits are pretty gnarly.

And so I think that's kind of highlighted a need for them, I think, to add another legitimately good defenseman. And I'm curious to see, I know we've spoken a lot about how the market for that is very difficult to navigate. There's very few options, but I'd put them in a tier of teams that probably could add there and maybe a center for them in terms of like the the bull case for them, or sorry, the bear case is like, I love Vlad Nemestikov as a player, but if you're going to have this second offensive deal-oriented line with Cole Perfetti and Niklai Ehlers, maybe I'd like someone with a little more offensive juice to anchor that line and bump Nemesnikov down into more of a supporting role. We'll see. Those are the two things that I think they could address.

But I mean, it's kind of one of the perks about them is that continuity. Like it's a lot of the same names, a lot of the same guys. They clearly gel together and know how to play together. And they've been really good this year. So I don't know. Do you have any other notes on the Jets in terms of Bear versus Bull? It's kind of the same as it was last year, I think in my opinion. Obviously, they've played to a pretty high level, especially early on.

Yeah. And I think my concern with them is honestly not a ton different, frankly. than my concern with the Los Angeles Kings, except that, you know, the jets have the power play to fall back on offensively, but in terms of the five-on-five side of the game, you know, and I know Eilers and Conner and Shifley to some extent, too, feel like bigger, starrier names than what the Kings have.

But, you know, five-on-five in terms of generating looks, you know, I just don't think they quite have that same fastball that, you know, the teams that I talk about is like the top five, right? That Vegas, Edmonton, New Jersey, Carolina tier sort of do. And so, you know, I think it's important when we're talking about Winnipeg now based off of how consistently they made the playoffs, right? The way that they were able to sort of reinvent themselves after losing that wash a guys in 2019 and 2020, right? whether it was Hayes and Bufflin and, you know, you go down the list. I mean, Wheeler, like that whole generation that probably, honestly, was certainly a Stanley Cup caliber lineup for a few years.

I mean, it's a totally new era. And I think this own, this new era of Jets hockey has proven itself to be a pretty credible threat already. That next level, though, like you mentioned the second line center. I mean, I think for me anyway, they're another team, honestly, that right now still feels a star short to me, right? They still feel, and they have bullets in the chamber. Maybe a guy like Perfetti gets to that level. I think we've seen signs that he can on occasion. So, yeah, that to me is still, I still think there's another five-on-five gear that they're absent relative to the absolute apex teams in this league in terms of manufacturing chances.

as it evens. I agree. I want to start with their third line. I mean, they did it last year, but they've taken into an even greater degree this year, the Lowry, Nino-neider-Rider-Appleton line. Ah, your boy, Mason, Appleton there. 355 minutes this year, 5-15, sub-28% offensive zone starts, and they've given up seven goals against in that time. They're freakishly good defensively. Yeah, it'll be interesting to see what they do. I, I, maybe this doesn't really apply to this specific conversation. We can kind of revisit this once we do our trade headline previews and all of that. but with the cap projected to escalate, I guess, as exponentially as it is over the next couple years. And this organization's, I think, I think it's fair to wonder whether they're going to be willing to spend accordingly in terms of maxing out that way to match up with the other top contenders in a league.

This window right now does present an interesting buying opportunity for them to leverage a team that's first in the central and second in the West to really go for it this year, not necessarily kind of using all of their bullets, but sort of leverage. a team that's first in the central and second in the west to really go for it this year, not necessarily kind of using all of their bullets, but certainly making a calculated jump to try to do it this year while the finances are still working in their favor. I think they should. Yeah. I really think they should. And, you know, that said, right, never take expected cap growth to the bank.

I just want to remind Fidiot cast listeners that, you know, in the history of the salary cap, in the history of the NHL hard cap, I think it's only actually gone up about half the time, right? There's always been the value of the Canadian dollar tanks unexpectedly or there's a lockout that rolls back

you know, the upper limit or a pandemic. What else did we have? We had one more. Oh, we had a stock market crash. So, you know, you put those together and the cap's been around since 2005, right? I think it's only gone up

about half the time and actually somewhat less than, half the time. So things look good, but there's already storm clouds on the horizon of, for example, the U.S. Canadian, you know, economic relationship that if it comes to pass in a certain way, could certainly throw a wrench in the best late plans of the NHL and the NHLPA from a cap growth perspective. All right. We've got three more central division teams that I want to roll through here before we go to break and switch over to the Eastern Conference, the Dallas Stars, who were remarkably despite all the personnel they have,

not even the top 10 in the league right now by point percentage. They're 12th in the league. Their goal score is. It's unfathomable. It's truly shocking. I fathomable. I know that they haven't had the best season,

but when I was prepping for this, I was like, I kept refreshing just to make sure that I had that. And you watched them too night to night. And like they look like an elite team. They play like an elite team for the most part. You know, and then you check the standing. things and it never quite adds up. Well, here's a couple of things to note on that.

One, the goal scoring. They've scored just 25 goals in the 10 games since Tyler Sagan got shut down and six of those came in one game against the flames. The power play this year is just 26th in the league in goals four per 60 after being top five last year. I think an encouraging thing is just watching those games. Rupa Hintz has the 15 goals. He's been flying around again this year.

And hopefully that continues because we know, you know, how important that particular element is in terms of the quick strike offense that he's able to provide and how limited he was, especially towards the end of last year's playoff run in that series against the Oilers, where he just couldn't really ratchet it up to that gear. I'm not concerned about why Johnson, who's got just the six goals in 33 games after scoring 42 combined regular season and playoff games last year, he's only shooting like 6.5%. He's going to start scoring.

I do have some concerns about what we're seeing out of Jason Robertson. And I know he had the foot surgery in the offseason. There's no Pavelsky this year, of course. But his offense individually has ground to a halt. He's got only 22 high danger chances himself in 33 games. Individual goals per 60 the past four years have progressively dipped from 1.8 4 years ago down as 0.72 this year. And with him on the ice, it's the same trend. And so they need him it hints to generate offense atop the lineup and then kind of let everything trickle down from that. And they haven't really been getting that, especially from Robertson. I think that

hopefully he'll get healthier and more up to whatever his version of speed is by the playoffs. So I'm leaving the door open for that. But this is a couple of years in a row now where it's been a downward climb of him being pretty much the most efficient 515 goal creator and a score in the league to a player who's really struggling right now offensively. And I think as we talk about other teams and the gear they're able to hit offensively and how valuable their star players are, they need him to be that. Yeah, you, especially in this league right now, right? There's no hiding a sputtering star player. The value of shots right now, the value of shots taken by your most skilled players is so high. And the impact, the decisive impact right now that's being made by players at the top of the lineup, I mean, it is the ball game.

You know, it is one of those things where we almost need to start not all the way. because I don't want to go full skip Baylis here and do the morality play about winners and losers. But your star players need to be the reason you win right now because star players around the league can be the reason you win right now, as opposed to it being, you know, the depth lines that make the difference and, you know, the real weak link sport that we've come to think of hockey as it still is. Like, don't get me wrong. Hockey's not fundamentally different because, say, percentage is dropped. but if your best guys aren't your best guys, you are dead in the water in a way that you haven't been, I think, in recent seasons.

I'm contractually obligated to note one final thing on the stars here. The right shots they have on their depth chart are Matt Dunba, Ilya Lujkin, Niels Lundquiz, who they won't play in the playoffs, and Alex Petrovich, who they call up and went there in a pinch. And the more I think about it, the more I keep coming back to the conclusion, and I know this isn't part of Jim Nils M.O. because he's much more of a balanced GM in terms of taking a long view

and never going all in like this. He brought in Christana, but even that was for a very modest price last year. I feel like they're there, Carlson team. I know that Pittsburgh's kind of bounced back a little bit. They're playing competitive hockey at least, and so it's not an embarrassment and they're clearly motivated to at least be within this realm.

But just thinking, it's like, all right, team playing style, a team that loves to attack off the rush and sprint out of the zone, his ability to facilitate that, and then join the rush and these on-man opportunities, playing potentially with Essel and Dell and a pair, maybe getting this power play going that I just noted is bottom of the league. I feel like that would be the big swing.

I think there's probably people within the Carolina Hurricanes organization right now who are listening to this and being like, I hope that doesn't happen because we're going to be all over Eric Carlson this summer. But I feel like in terms of a big move for a team that's been trying to kill Rod Brindamore. And it's a plot to kill Rod Brindamore. I mean, it's way too obvious of a move. presented the case here on the PDOCASA pass, but it's like, after his siding bonus this summer, his actual salary is criminally low compared to his AV.

Brent Burns is off the looks as a right shot. It's like, it's the biggest no brain. The honorary, um, the honorary, uh, Shane Goss to spare Anthony DeAngelo roster spot. Yes. I was to get Eric Carlson. But I feel like that this is a bit like the stars need to make a big swing year. I don't think it's going to be as simple as bringing in another sort of middle of the roster player to kind of be a bit part contributor for them. They obviously have very good players already, but if you're going to compete with some of these other Western teams and their incentive to do so is incredibly high, they've become so tantalizingly close for years now. So making that jump

this year, I'm curious to see what they do with all that cap space they have. The Minnesota Wilde, they started the year 11, 2, and 4 points in their 15 of their first 17 games. Before the break, they went on kind of sputtering on a 2 and 6 stretch, and then they beat the Blackhawks in their final game before the break. Their profile is very similar to the LA Kings, which I don't think will come to shock to anyone. Their defensive environment is incredibly good. Their top five and team save percentage expected goals against inner slot shots. The offense when Caprizov isn't on the ice is increasingly hard to come by for them. And I think there's a reason why Caprizov is the current betting favorite for the heart because his on-off splits offensively are obscene.

and so he's up to the task, certainly, but he's banged up right now. And when you're talking about playoff contenders, I think the bull case or the bear case, sorry, is pretty obvious. It's like if he's not going to be doing all the creation, I don't really see. I like I love Matt Boldie and him and Eric Seneck have been really good,

but there just aren't that many offensive innovators on this team. And so they're going to have to win low scoring games, and that's going to be difficult to do so in a playoff setting. Yeah, and I'd add this. on the bare side of the ledger for the wild. Among the teams we've talked about, is there a team that should be more reluctant to buy at the deadline than the wild this season?

Right? First of all, they've already thrown a ton of chips into the center of the table to acquire Eurich, which was a long-sighted move. And one that I like. I love that bet for this team, given how they're positioned. But they feel like a team that's going to be, you know,

they're going to have a puncher's chance in the playoffs. And I feel like they should be happy with that. I feel like that's where they should be right now. I suppose the Caprizov factor in terms of his contract probably necessitates going for it to some extent, just from a relationship management perspective. And because look, you don't know how many seasons you get with a guy playing at the level that he's played at,

a heart trophy level over the first half of the season. But this feels like a powder dry year for a team that's going to have reams of flexibility that they haven't in years on the other side of the season and has just a ton, like an absolute massive young talent, either contributing now or coming like right on the horizon, not hypothetically coming, but like guys who will make a huge difference for this team as soon as next year. you know, you sort of look at the next three years and it feels like the opportunities are significant for Minnesota. You look at them short term and they look like, you know, more than a solid playoff team, like a team with a sort of low end shot at going deep, a team that can absolutely make a run. And yet I don't know that they should be chasing that with any sort of recklessness over the next few months.

Yeah, and I wouldn't expect them to. As you mentioned, with the praise and suitor cap. it's dropping from 7.3 to like 800k-ish. That's going to create massive buying off of this coming summer. It will be the final year of Caprizov's deal. And so that's going to become a big storyline. Man, the year he's having, though, so on pace for 55 goals, 121 points, playing like 2240 per game.

With him on the ice this year, at 515, they scored 36 goals in 600 minutes. In the 1140 other minutes, they've scored 33 goals. Like, he's having a Quinn Hughes-esque impact on this team's offense. And the fact that he's putting up these numbers, on a team that's 25th in rush chances, 29th in slot shots, like, they're in the 20s offensively across the board, is remarkable considering that environment. Now, the interesting thing about

them and one final thing I want to note is they've been pretty good this year at 5-15. Their special teams are inexplicably abysmal to me. This is the second straight year, right? When Deves Eveson got fired, a big part of it was like the penalty kill was historically bad. It's 30th again this year. The power play, despite how. Having pretty good kind of tree of personnel that you'd expect to be better is 24th. Again, I don't know what's going on with their special teams units, but it's a shame because they're good enough offensively, or they're good enough at 515 that if that was even middle of the pack, I think it would be a bit of a different story for them in terms of viability,

but they haven't been able to figure that out. The Colorado Avalanche. They're currently 15th. We mentioned how the stars are, it's shocking that they're 12th in point percentage. The avalanche are 15th in point percentage. is the eighth seed right now in the West. I saved them for last because I don't think there's too many novel ideas that we have to present here.

I think the Bear vs. Bull is pretty obvious. Obviously, they made a big priority of trying to address the bear case in bringing in an entirely different goal-tending room. And then they got four games of giving up just two goals against in each of them by Blackwood. And they're like, this is amazing. Let's do five more years of this.

Which is very uncharacteristic for them. organizationally to invest that much in a goalie. So I think that speaks volumes in terms of, I think, how just troubled they were in the past by it and how like sort of, they just don't want to go through that ever again. The thing I'll note about them, they've played 36 games this year. They'd use 31 different skaters and six different goalies in 36 games, which is shocking. Obviously, some big injuries, like an instance has come back, 34 goal pace, the Al-Machushkinsoncy game back, 47 goal pace. They finally threw a life raft with Casey Middlestad because guys are back now so you can play with Ranton and Ross Colton, McKinnon and Makara doing their thing. Give any other notes on the Sav's team in terms of Bear vs. Bull? I still just worry about their overall depth here. And I know that's not novel, but, you know, they, I mean, they haven't. They've had a lot of missed games.

like I think it would look different, you know, if they'd had 10 games or even 15 games from Jonathan Drouin. Right? Like just they don't even have those guys you can sort of fill out a line with some nights. And so it feels a lot like the Aves teams did two years ago. You know, where those Lars Eller seasons or Ben Myers, like some of those teams. too many nights this year that's what their lineup has looked like. 31 skaters in 36 games. I know, it's crazy. Six goalies.

I know. It's unbelievable. So, look, you trust that this group can figure it out on the fly, but I honestly feel like they need player volume, right? It's like they need a couple guys at least. And that seems tough given their cap situation. That seems tough given the time of year, the demand for players being so high generally.

here. I just, I can't, I can't sort of escape, I can't escape that they have the top end, they have the top end unquestionably to have one of the highest gears in hockey. And in fact, they already do. Yeah. But I, I, in a way that I wouldn't say for it, like, every other team, it's like, oh, man, if they could add a star. And that's a, and that's a huge indictment, right? That's like, that's easier, not that close. Or it would be great if they could add a middle six center or another puck moving deed to replace Dylan Sandberg or I mean I feel like this is a team where I'm looking at their lineup I'm like they need like three more guys and they don't have to be star guys but they do need multiple credible NHL options for their middle six and and ideally

another defender too it's just a lot to ask this front office to pull off we combine the colorado ablanch and L.A. Kings we'd have the greatest team known to man you'd 100% have a 800 point percentage team no question about it all right tom. Let's take another break here. We've finished our Bear Veresbo for the Western Conference. When we come back, we're going to switch gears and talk about the Eastern Conference. You're listening to the Hockey P.D.O.cast streaming on the SportsNet Radio Network. All right.

We're back in the Hockey PEOcast with Thomas Drance. Tom. The listeners will be shocked to hear this, but we're way behind pace. We spent way too much time over our allotted two hours here or whatever we have on the West. We're going to do the evening. And no one else would do it that way. So that's, I feel good about that. we have a Western confidence buy it.

I mean, that's very clear. All right. No, it's okay, because we've spent a lot of time talking about these East teams in particular. Let's rattle through them. The Washington Capitals, first in the East, third in the NHL by point percentage,

third in the league, plus 36 goal differential. I think what's impressive about them, just two kind of quote-unquote blowout losses this year by three or more goals. They're second in the league, and goals scored fourth, in goals against the depth as well,

and maybe you view this, and I think you'd do. as more of a curse than a blessing. But John Carlson plays 24 minutes per game for this team. And then second is Jacob Chikrin at 2030. And 11th is Pierre-Luc Dubois at 17-03. So they have like 10 players between 17 and 20 minutes, all situations per game. I think it makes them the tough match.

They're a very well-old machine. Like there's no weak links. I think Spalli Cardbury's done a phenomenal job in terms of that preparation you're talking about. Like if they do have a bad game and it's been very few and far between, their bounce back efforts right after are like clockwork phenomenal. I think a lot of great adjustments obviously have another Letchkin for a stretch here and his impending return is going to dominate storylines, but they have so many different contributors.

And I think guys like McMichael, Strom, Proto's kind of elevating their games makes them a top out because they have so many different kind of skill sets that are all contributing right now. I also think the, you know, the depth thing, you might have to switch that up. Carberry might have to switch that up, that matchup dependent, once you get to the playoffs, but at least in the first part of the year, the Capitol's ability to roll lines

and their uniqueness is one of the four NHL teams that actually have a complete blue line group, I think has been a huge edge, especially when they're on the road. You know, you sometimes see home coaches try and pick at like the Van Riemstike, Farivari pair or what have you, and most of the time Garbury is happy with it.

That's fine. And I think that's a huge edge. I think that's a massive edge for this team. Yeah, again, there might come a time where they become something of a double-edged sword, but I like the simplicity of having this deep roster loaded with really good players, and they're fun. They're a ton of fun. The bear case, I think, is obvious when it comes to the capitals,

given how they played this year, given just sort of the firepower they have. at every stage of the lineup. I think where the capital is sort of fall into the same group of a lot of these teams, right? Is I still don't know that they generate enough chances. I don't know that they generate enough chances for when they bump into, you know,

a Devils or a Carolina hurricanes in the playoffs. And, you know, that's hard to do. I mean, those are two of the best at it in the league, but it matters. because when the chips are down and you have to solve problems and you have to get either the go-ahead goal or the tying goal or the goal to make it a game late, you know,

I think the Capitals have the skill to do it and a lot of the players to do it, but can they outdo those teams? Because they're going to see those teams, you know, probably early in the playoffs. Winning their division, if the Capitals can keep playing the way they have and win their division, I feel like that would be a huge. If you can lock Washington,

sorry, if you can lock the Devils and the Carrials, line of hurricanes, some of the first round matchup, then I think there's, then I think the bull case, the path for this capitals team to make a run this year, I just think it widens, maybe more than it does for any other team in the league outside of Vancouver. Yeah, I think that's certainly fair. And I totally take your point in terms of the offense generation just from like a negative game script as well, right? Because one of the issues of having this depth approach and and being able to kind of

counter the way they do at times when you are up is when you're when it flips and all of a sudden it's like all right you have to pick one specific line to send out there because you're going to double shift them because you're pushing offensively it's a bit trickier for the way they're composed what i'd say though is they're ninth in the league and interslot shots their ninth or 10th in the league and expected goals so i do think they generate a fair amount and you mentioned kind of like all right trying to compete with the team like the devils or in in a sort of back and forth offensive environment in a playoff series, I think their malleability as a team is a big feather in their cap here. Because they have so many different types of players and considering

how well coached they are as well, I feel like depending on the opponent, they can sort of suit their game to whatever that night calls for, whatever unique challenges that team presents, if you know what I mean, right? So like if they need to kind of grind it out and get into a sort of sloppier defensively oriented game, I think they're pretty comfortable doing that and they have the that to do so. If they get into a transition back and forth track meet, they have some pretty fun high-octane players to facilitate that as well. So maybe not necessarily in the highest gear of some of these true contenders, but I feel like they're a very tough matchup from just preparing for them because they can beat you in so many different ways. Yeah, no, there's no question about that.

And they're almost exactly the same team to play on the road as they are at home. They're honestly one of the most unique opponents anyone will face. And I think there's definitely, and at edges there. I just wonder if they have the gear of the like inner circle contenders. Well, one of those teams in New Jersey Devils last nine games. Now, they're playing as we're recording against the hurricanes, but the nine games before that, 15 goals against in those nine games, 15.55 total shots against. That's 17.2 shots against per game. During that stretch, we just saw Jacob Markstrom in hilarious Marty Broder fashion post back-to-back shoutouts of 12 saves in each of those games.

Which also, by the way, is so, runs so contrary to the catching bullet in his teeth, Jacob Markstrom that we saw at his best some of those years in Vancouver. They had that game right before the break

where obviously a very troubled, struggling New York Rangers team, but they gave up six shots on goal in 45, 5-15 minutes to play against them. They just kind of skated laps around them. And I'm going to rattle a lot of more stats. Jasper Bratt and Jack Hughes on the ice this year, up 22 to 11, 60% goal share. I'd say their defensive growth this year under Sheldon Keefe has been incredibly exciting to see. Like,

obviously have that offensive firepower, but they've been relied upon and come through in different spots compared to the past. They stumble upon this line of Nico Hissier, Timel Meyer, and Stefan Nason. They have outrageous underlying numbers. They've played 130 minutes at 515. High danger chances are 52 to 15. In that, that time for the Devils, their power play is second at just under 12 goals per hour. Defensively, second and in goals against, fifth and expected goals against first and few as slot shots allowed. They have five guys scoring at a 30 plus goal pace.

Only the As in Stars generate more rush chances than them. You watch them play. There's zero breathing room. Please step in here. I can keep rattling off pro-devil stats because I don't really have much of a bear case here, to be honest, other than if you subscribe today to the idea that, like, I know they had that playoff on last year where they beat the Rangers triumphantly in game seven at home and then kind of fizzled out against Carolina at round two. So they do have a bit of playoff experience

with this group, but it would be a massive step, I think, to go from that and the year they had last year to winning a Stanley Cup this season. I know they made a bunch of changes in the offseason, so it is a bit of a different team and they brought in kind of more veteran players with experience, certainly. I think that's the only sort of stumbling block here because I think personnel-wise, it's about as flawless a group as you're going to find in terms of like how functional they're using it on the ice under shelving key. So the only bare case element that I can make is, how big a difference does Thomas Tatar always seem to make on this roster?

Yes. That's a problem. Yeah, they could use another winger. Another winger with size. Like at some point, at some point, I never watched the Devils last year and thought, man, they really miss Tomash Tatar. And yet I watch them this season and I'm like, oh, right, that's the piece they need.

They just need a big body. It's not like they need when I say like they need another big winger. I don't mean they need, you know, a Matt Rampé type clone. I don't mean they need a battle winner. They need a battle winner. They need just. There are there are some games where you see them play against bigger forward groups where like specifically keying the breakout. right on on on when winger puck comes to a winger on the half wall and teams that have some

size up front I think can cause them to now I want to qualify this not get bogged down like they're they can't find answers but cause them to just take an extra second or an extra beat or make an extra pass and a little area play as opposed to getting out and flying and I just think another winger would help another winger with size would help sort of protect that connectivity that I think this devil's team has when they're galloping at their best. And so that, that to me would be the only thing.

Like, I don't want to watch this team and think, man, Tom Ash Tatar, that's the secret sauce here. And yet, you know, like,

I think it's one of the reasons why the Timom Meyer panics faded, right? Yeah, they went out, brought in Stepanason, you and Paul Carter. Oh,

they clearly, at least recognize that internally. 100%. And so I just, I still think another, another player that can match that. and ideally they can bring that while also playing with the pace that the devils are going to need to play with when they're in those sort of hair-on-fire moments come playoff time because I think we know

you know Tomastatar is going to play six minutes in the playoffs like there's going to be five-on-five games whereas ice time doesn't hit 10 minutes and on and on so a guy who can play that style and and sort of help protect your ability to get moving I think that would be sort of still my only element I I think the bear case for the Devils is someone's able to, they bump into an opponent that's actually able to contain sort of their get up and go. Yeah, they're 20th in the league, despite scoring a bunch of goals in 5-15 shooting percentage. And I think an issue they could bump into is in a playoff series

where they get a bit frustrated offensively and that happens even to the best teams. I think that's the ultimate sort of champagne problems, though, if we're kind of talk about what a team needs because you watch the way they play and that team speed, how they functionally, they leverage it defensively, they give you no breathing room, they transition quicker than anyone in the league. It's almost, you have to adjust yourself and it's unfair a bit in the regular season, right? Because you go playing a regular NHL team and then on a second of a back-to-back, you go into New Jersey and you have to play this Devils team. And you're just functioning at such a different general pace and speed that it's unfair almost

to expect someone to be able to calibrate in real time to that. And they're just blitzing. It's teams. So I think they've stumbled upon something really, really good here. Like it goes without saying, obviously, but underlying metrics, I test everything. They're checking all the boxes that I think you want to see at this point of the season. Yeah. They're a special team. I think the only other things that I'd add in terms of a bare case are, unfortunately, Florida and Carolina also exists.

Yeah, it's like that. But they're absolutely in that tier of teams now for me. Well, let's transition and talk about the final metro team, as I'm doing a quick survey to make sure I didn't mess up the divisions again, the Carolina Hurricanes, who are ninth in point percentage. Offensively, it's similar to the way it's been in the past, right? Their first and expected goals, first and shots, all that stuff, second in zone time. Their top 10 in rush chances this year, though, they're scoring goals. Their special teams are both top five, as you'd expect. I have, and I'm not sure how much this is a byproduct of just like them doing what we wanted

offensively and this comes with the territory, it might be. But I feel like their defense has, it doesn't quite look the same as it did in the past. They're still top 10 in both expected goals against and goals against. They give up the fewest shot volume, least offense's own time, that entire pressure system. I think everyone knows what to expect. But they're down to 26th in inner slot shots allowed. And you watch a play in particular, I think, a growing concern for me and playing with Jacob Slavin erases a lot of these mistakes, but Brent Burns is turning 40 in March, and he looks at this year, in my opinion.

Like, he just looks slower in coverage. There's more mistakes. They're having a cover for him when he messes up and isn't able to get there in time. And so they're not quite the same defensive team, in my opinion, that they've been in the past. It might be okay from a net positive tradeoff if they are going to just go offensively the way we wanted for years

and actually push in transition and kind of create offensive. and take more risks, it might be fine. But I do think beneath the hood, it's a little bit of a different story for me than maybe it's been last year or the year prior. Oh, yeah. No, the reason that Carolina hurricanes are a threat this year is that they've revamped the entire way they go about producing offense and are now the most dangerous rush

attacking team in the sport. I mean, honestly, they, if they're not the most, they're certainly top three, you know. Well, the devils exist. alongside the devils and the Edmont Noilers. But like they belong in the company of the Devils and the Edmonton Oilers, in my opinion, in terms of the way that they're able to attack off the rush, that seems unfathomable. And yet I do think with what wins games today, with the way that the league looks today, that's the essential skill.

You know, like the Carolina Hurricanes have the essential skill, I think, to manufacture chances, to outscore problems. And that's such a massive departure from where they've been in previous seasons, right? That that's been their fatal flaws. They had everything but, right? And now I think they have it. Now, I think you're not wrong to point out that there's maybe some holes in the defensive game that that crop up, although I would suggest that that's inevitable when you turn the dial.

I do. team is positioned to, I think this team, I think this is the best team in hockey. I really do think that this is the best team in hockey and in a real way this year. And I think it's because they've taken a really thoughtful, a really intentional approach to adapting how they generate offense while keeping enough of who they are to be imposing in the old-fashioned ways as well. This is, this is a really fun team right now. And I've enjoyed watching them. I think they're super imposing and I expect them to add aggressively between now and the deadline because there's no way they're not smelling opportunity here.

Well, and they have about 22 million coming off the books to Subur and Burns, Orloff, Freddie Anderson, Roslovich, and Fast expiring deal. So, yeah, that presents an interesting opportunity. I will say they're 13th in 515 gold differential this year. And when I say they're a little bit different, that's kind of what I'm pointing to. Like, they used to be such a well-oiled machine at 5-1-5 in terms of suffocating you. I think it's okay because they have grander aspirations. Yeah, it's okay to not be a top five, five-on-five team in the regular season if it means preparing yourself for what it's going to take in the playoffs.

And I'd be like these are the necessary steps they're undergoing. But I will just know that it's, it's, it looks different. That's all I'll say. And I, I think you're right. I think that's a good thing, though. Yeah. I will say, though, like, with burn burns on the ice, it's, they're breaking even barely. Yeah.

And considering he's playing with Jacob Slavin and. what that's looked like in the past. I think heading into a playoff series, I'm not sure I'd be comfortable if I were them in being like, all right, well, we're going to use Ben Burns and a top pair of 22 minutes tonight roll the way they have in the past and kind of chalked it up as a foregone conclusion.

So I'll be curious to see what they do and the way they add, but yeah, I'm high on them. I wouldn't say, I don't think they're the best team in the league. I think the best team in league is the one that we're going to cut to right after break here. And that's one little tease here. that I'm going to do.

So let's take our final break. And then when we come back, we'll finish up. I think we did all the Metro teams that I wanted to cover today. We're going to get into the Atlantic Division and cover those contenders. You're listening to the hockey PDOCAST streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network. All right. We're back here for our final segment here on the PDO cast. I don't know how you always do these two hour daily shows, Tom.

I feel like 50 minutes is enough from me. Now that we're getting into the two hour one of care, we're really testing our will. Yeah. You know what? It's a test a will, my friend. Let's, uh, let's get to it. All right. We're in the Atlantic Division. I teased this before I went to break, the best team. We haven't necessarily seen it from start to finish at this point of the year. I think they're kind of biding their time. We've seen a couple performances that indicate they're still able to ratchet up to that gear and probably are just waiting for the playoffs. The Florida Panthers, in my opinion, are still the most dangerous team because obviously their formula and their playing style that's so unique is obviously tried and true, having won last year of Stanley Cup. And we've seen enough signs of it. this year to make me indicate that it's still going to be just successful and they're still

able to tap into it when they want to. They had a couple games over this recent road trip. They had a game in Tampa Bay certainly as well where they're able to kind of throw that fastball offensively their fourth and goals defensively, their eighth and expected goals against. The Lee still has no answer for when they have Sasha Barkov and Gus Foresling on the ice together. They've played 210 even strength minutes. They've given up one goal in that time. You are not going to score against those two guys when they're on the ice. The combination of Barkov, he'd be obviously the common denominator here. 515, PK with Ryan Hart, all the numbers are as sparkling as you'd expect.

I guess the one sort of bear case is they played 45 playoff games. Yeah, the past two years. And that doesn't include a couple of ludicrous overtime games, right? Like the Carolina won a couple years ago, it's like going like three, four, five over time. So extra minutes there. I'd even argue the regular season in 22, 23, where they essentially had to play play off hockey down the stretch just to make it in qualifying the first place

where very high intensity games they had to play. So the miles on this team and the top players on it are about as high as you're ever going to see. Yeah, this type of situation. And so that is a concern. And you're seeing, you're seeing Barkov miss games. You're seeing Kachke. I mean, he missed games early with, I guess,

did we ever find out with the flu or? I think he was sick. Just, just taking a couple of things. But then, you know, takes that tough hit from Kutraov right before the holiday break. I mean, these guys have had a target on their back for years now. So it's going to be tough and I think that's definitely part of it. I'd add this, like I do think right now, not that they miss Brandon Montour, because I think that would be overselling it.

I think this team has answers regardless of which defenders are in their lineup, provided that Gustav Forsling and Barkovs were provided that they have that access to throw at the opposition at the top of the lineup. But I do think that there's an element to which right now, if you're able to contain their pressure game, right? If you have a good plan and are super disciplined about dealing with their rims and are able to break the buck out cleanly and avoid making mistakes, can they find answers? can they find a plan B consistently enough to beat elite opponents, right? That sort of is my one question. The answer, by the way, most nights is yes. But I'm talking about seven games against Carolina,

seven games against New Jersey, seven games against even Toronto, right? Like the absolute best teams in this league, I do think having an answer, having a puck mover, another second pair puck mover who can help them be more than just arsonists offensively. Right, not need to rely on breaking you down, but able to create themselves. I think that's sort of the bare cases, is that they don't find that in time for the playoffs.

Well, one of the teams probably positioned to do so is the New Jersey Devils, and we saw them play a pair of games back-to-back earlier than year, and that was pretty one-sided, and that was the best pair of games I thought the New Jersey played this year, and that was probably two of the worst games that Florida played this year, and I kind of at the time chalked it up too. I don't think these games really matter for the Panthers, but you're right, that might be sort of a, in terms of breadcrumbs, like a sign of what could potentially undo them in a playoffs. I think it's also one of the reasons that Vancouver game concerned me, right?

Like, Tocke was completely prepared to handle the pressure game in the neutral zone. Barcob in that game, though, I believe. No, Barkup was in. Yeah, he missed the game after, I guess. Yeah, I don't think he was 100%. Right, right. But he played. My point being, I didn't think that they could find a second answer against that Kinnock's team.

That was one of my observations. I think you're right about the devil's games too. So I don't think it matters in terms of them. I don't think it matters if the question is, does this Florida Panthers team have the highest ceiling of any team in the league? I think I'd answer yes, pretty unequivocally to that question. But in terms of building a bear case, I do think that secondary puck-moving push is still something they miss.

Yeah. And something that I suspect if this team isn't able to get it done at the point of the end of the season is going to be something we look at as one of the reasons why. That's fair. I can't believe I insinuated that Sasha Barkov would have taken a night off

with you in the building. Of course he used to me. Of course he was at the show. I would have been so upset. I know. And that's why I think as long as Barkov and Forzling are around, I like their chances against anyone.

But you're right. It is a bit more precarious. They have Bennett and Eckblatt as UFOs this summer. I'm very curious to see what happens in terms of if there's traction there, whether they're going to move on, whether they view this as one kind of final

push with this group, all that's fascinating stuff. The Tampa Bay Lightning. If there's a sleeping giant right now, quote unquote, in my opinion, just in terms of looking at whatever underlying markers you prioritize or care about, and then the team's place in the standings, I think there's a very compelling case that it's the Tampa Bay Lightning right now because they're 11th in point percentage. They're four points behind the Leafs with three games in hand.

They've had the strangest early season schedule of any team in the league. They've played the fewest games. They had the toughest rank of the schedule. They played every West team, the two a lot of times, each season early on. Now you look, coming out of the break, they have home games against the Rangers, the Habs, then they go through a trip through California, one of the easiest strength of schedules the rest of the season. And their second and the league in goal differential, plus 37, 12 of their 19 wins are by three plus goals, only the Capitals and Devils have more.

They only have two such losses. They're first in the league and score in their ninth and expected goals. against defensively, I think there's a very, very compelling bull case for this team. And we've been kind of on it all year because we really liked the proactive decisions they made in the offseason to address this. They got faster. They got deeper. And they added players that make much more sense for the players they already have in place. And I still think they need a few more additions to be really treated as like some version of the Tampa Bay Lightning they were when they were a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. But like,

They are not an 11th best team in the league right now, as the standings would indicate. Like, I think especially their A game, when they're really firing on all cylinders and Kucharov's playing his absolute best, is right up there with any team in terms of this potency. Yeah, I agree. I think the, well, the Kutjav of it shouldn't be ignored because, you know, I keep coming back to this theme of the best players having this decisive impact on games. I mean, one of the reasons why the Edmonton Oilers, I think, have this unhittable fastball is they have the best player on the planet. And yet, when it comes down to it, if you had to come up with a second name, right? Take Connor McDavid out the board. Second name, one game.

You get to choose any other human being on the planet to play for you. I think Kuchera was the answer, right? And so that side of this matters a ton. And then, you know, early on in the season, they're able to do this fun thing where you've got this Kucherov point sort of line coming at you with all their skill loaded up. And then this Sorrelli, Hegel. It's going to just make you hate your life? Paul Crew, yeah.

That line has so much dog in them. I don't think they've left any dog for anybody else, right? It's just ridiculous. Now, we can talk about the obvious flaws in this Tampa Bay lineup. I don't think they're significant necessarily, but they are specific, right? the right-handed shot for the power play is something that I'm not going to stop talking about until they land a right-handed shot

for the power play to stand in the Stamco spot and make it really sing. They need to add that. I'm not going to be taking them as seriously as I would come playoff time if they don't have a finisher that matches that description. I think the bull case for Tampa Bay, though, and something I do think we need to dwell on

just a little bit longer as we sort of before we move on, is, you know, Connor Geeky is such a beast. And I do think he's one of those guys too where I think what we've seen already is really promising. But I think there's a world where his next 30 games look different than his last 36, right?

Where he figures it out as we go. And then, I mean, there are some absolute truths about this sport. and one of them is geeky's beastly profile should play up come the posties, right? He's going to improve naturally anyway,

but I feel like that could be a real coming out party for him if he continues to track the way that he has to this point. I think that's a huge part. Like, what does the bull case for Tampa Bay look like? I do think it's that by the time

you get to the playoffs, you're talking about geeky being like a table setting, difference making third line player as opposed to a guy who we really like playing on their third line. which is the level that he's been at in the first 40 games of the year. And especially if they go and address and add another winger and arm him with more talent, right?

Like, I think it's necessary if they're going to be taken seriously to bump Hackinson, Chafee, even though I like him a little bit, and Cawas and some of these guys down on more supporting roles, and then giving them a more fighting chance, whether it's geekier, whether it's Nick Paul centering that third line to kind of go toe for toe with whoever. But man, like, there's so many angles to this in terms of the underwriting. profile on both ends that I think are very compelling. You mentioned the powerplay and I agree with

you, but it hasn't mattered because after a slow start, they're fourth in the league on power play goals per 60, which just speaks obviously. I'm Gucharov's supercomputer greatness that he just figured out anyways in lieu of having that right-handed shot. But they can be won, is my point. And I think they're going to need to be. Yeah. Like, I think they're going to need a power play that, just like they've had in previous successful platform, it's like a power play that their successes. Determined my more by whether or not they make their shot than by what you do as a penalty killing group. My concern for them, and obviously this has been, you know, blown a bit out of proportion because Moser's out now and hopefully he's able to come back.

But when they have struggled this year, and I think in particular, they played a couple of games against the Leafs that I watched, where the Leafs just very aggressively under Craig Brube, kind of came at them north-south and pressured them off the forecheck. And the foot speed of that blue line can still be mistake prone or, I guess, caught out of position. And so sometimes if they get into these sped up game environments, you see a few cracks there, especially defensively, right? Because the totality, they're a top 10 defensive team, but then you watch them on a bad night where they don't have it

or where they're playing a team that's really coming at them. And all of a sudden, some of those mistakes become increasing in frequency, and you're like, all right, well, we probably should have seen this coming. So I think that would be one of my concerns in terms of the barricades for a playoff situation. They probably look like, I mean, the Atlantic is so close, right? now with these teams, especially with Tampa having games in hand, so we'll see what happens. But I feel like the difference between, you mentioned for the capitals, the value of winning the division and staying out of the two three. I feel like a two, three series here, whether it's like Florida, Tampa or Toronto, Florida or Toronto Tampa,

and then whoever that division winner is going to play in the wild card is massive as well, right? Like we're going to talk more about the Leafs here in a second. I feel like staying away, even though they had success in those games early on against Tampa Bay and playing someone else. I feel like would be a massive kind of increase in likelihood of coming out of that, right? Because I don't want to play Gutrov in a playoff setting where he can just get hot, just that run absolutely wild, especially with now more supporting talent they have. I don't either, but I do think the team in their division that matches the description of a team that could give them real trouble in terms of running them off the puck

and a higher-paced game environment is actually Ottawa. Yeah. Right? So one thing that's sort of interesting here is, you know, we all expect the Bruins to figure it out because they're the Bruins and they don't make sense. And yet, you know, in a lot of ways the senators feel like a far more dangerous. Yeah, I like the Bruins matchup for any of those top teams, I think, in the Atlantic. Especially the lightning. For sure. Yeah.

As opposed to a senator's team that I think could introduce some real havoc, you know, especially for slower blue line groups in that division. All right. Last team that I have here today. We're not going to talk with senators because we've spoken about them. Yeah, a lot. And we can, we can, people can go back to listen to those. We're going to talk more about them as well. I just forward. But we, we'll bookend the Ottawa thing, but I do want to say in terms of a generating five on five looks, like if, if you're like me and that's the main thing you're looking for at this point, the senators are definitely a team to be paying attention. Yeah, they're very similar to what everything we said about Utah. Yeah. The Toronto Maple Leafs, 10th in the league in point percentage, only two points behind Florida for a first in the Atlantic. Defensively, much improved. Part of the, part of the, This is like they've gotten such reliable, consistent goaltending out of Stolars before he got hurt. And then Joseph Foal, when he came back.

But their eighth and goals against, eighth and interslot, shots allowed, seventh on the PK. I don't have the stats in front of me, but I know that their rush defense is improved quite a bit as well. Some hallmarks of a Craig Brubé coach team. I do have a few lingering concerns offensively. Part of this might just be, we've only seen Austin Matthews play 24 games and he's out again. And obviously him at full health with his fastball totally changes the dynamic. but they're 16th in the league in 5-15 goal scoring on a permanent basis. They're out of the top 10 in goals, expected goals, shots, zone time, everything.

They generate a lot of inner slot shots, and part of that is because John Tavares has had such a throwback, awesome season, and that's been cool to see. I love to see it. But I feel like offensive creation, especially at even strength, which feels weird to say about a team that theoretically has Matthews and then Nylander, Marner, and Tavares all playing at an incredibly high level, still remains a bit of a question for me. Yeah, I mean, I think Toronto's, I think Toronto, Toronto feels like they're defying gravity a little bit in, in the early portion, or the first half of this season, to me anyway. You know, I like, I struggle with this profile of team generally, just given how dependent they are on goal pending, on positional play defensively, which I think has been really strong. I think they're getting phenomenal performances. and then on the area game in the offensive zone. Like on some level it feels like they play,

on some level it feels like they play offense slow. They play, I think they play slow, but I think they play well. Yeah. And so I need to see a little bit more because I watch this team play more nights than not. I feel like they're getting away with it in a way that I never used to feel about this core group.

And yet this core group never ended up getting away with it. And so maybe that maybe it makes sense. to radically alter the approach. Yeah. I mean, they've gotten some really valuable offensive production out of that McMahon Yomi Robertson line recently.

I think you and I both have our lingering concerns about a team relying on Max Domi in a playoff setting. And I think they're cognizant. I've heard a lot of like they want to add another center so that they can either not worry about that

or potentially bump to barriers to a wing role and kind of act accordingly from there. They have such a preposterous amount of talent, though, up and down the lineup. They do. Nyes. and on and on, to have held on the way they have without Matthews. And, you know, Matthews hasn't been.

Oh, he has 11 goals at this point of the season. Yeah, he hasn't been at a heart girl global. Unfathomable by heading into the year. Right. And this guy is a heart, like this guy is one of the five most impactful individual skaters in the sport, no question, probably top three. Yeah. So to have held the fort to this extent without him being the reason you're winning,

especially in this NHL environment, I mean, that's a testament. That's a huge credit to what this group has going on. And yet, you know, I, I'm, so I suppose, I suppose for me, the, the, I think we know what the bull case is for the Maple Leafs and that they get Matthews back, right? And he starts sort of picking his teeth and generating seven shots a game. The way he does when he's absolutely flying and you graph that onto this sort of new defensive structure and Tavares stays. playing well and you have more depth than just an overwhelming amount of forward talent and are able to win games. But the bare case to me is just that this team doesn't generate nearly enough, doesn't control games well enough, doesn't look fast enough most nights, and come playoff time, that proves to be an issue when they bump into an opponent that's throwing a fastball they're struggling to catch up to, especially if Matthews isn't, you know, at 100.

Only the Connox generate fewer rush chances than that per game. Yeah, which would seem crazy. considering the personnel, but obviously with the baggage that they've gone through over the years, they've made such a concerted effort of like fundamentally changing the team to be one that can get it done in the playoffs, right? And so I think there's been a lot of positive strides there in terms of the forechecking, in terms of how deliberate they are in some ways in terms of their decision making, but we've seen also the the cost of that or the sacrifice in some of these offensive creation numbers. So I still think that's a TBD, but I think we're done here. I had a lot of notes on the senators, but man, we've spoken so much about that.

Yeah, I really don't think there's anything in you. I think we should revisit and do much more senators talk after that inclusion of the road chip. They started off well, three and one, the one loss being seconded by back to back in Edmonton. Now it looks like they're going to have to sort of carry on without Linus all arc. So this is going to be a big test. We'll have a much better sense of how serious to take the senators in two weeks. We will. All right, Tom. You got any final plugs here on the way out? listen to Kinex talk on SportsNet 650 and across the SportsNet podcast network and check out the athletic for my Kinex coverage. Yeah, all the time.

Well, this was great. I'm glad we got to do this. This is our... Happy New Year, buddy. Happy year to you two. Happy year to our listeners. This is our last show for a little bit as Tom hinted out off the top. I'm off to Mexico for about 10 days or so to catch up on some sun and recharge for the second half. I think the plan is we'll be back on January 7th here on the feed and we'll pick it up from there and then we'll resume our Sunday specials heading into the new year. I hope everyone has a great new year. Thank you for making 2024, the best one yet here on the PDO cast. And thank you for listening to us on the Sports Night Radio Network.