The Hockey PDOcast - Bear vs. Bull Case for Five East Teams

Episode Date: January 30, 2024

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Thomas Drance to help make the case for reasons to either be high and low on the Panthers, Rangers, Bruins, Devils and Penguins. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

mean since 2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovin. Welcome to the Hockey PEDOCast. My name is Dimitri Filippovich and joining me in studios, my good buddy, Thomas Trans, Tom. What's going on, man? Dim, I'm doing well. And I'm excited we're going to buy some Florida Panthers stock today. Well, it's very...

My favorite activity! It's very exciting because we've got two weeks here without football, which means I've got two weeks of you just honing in on hockey until you get back to your main priorities. Um, this is going to be fun. So today we are going to do the bear versus bull case for the Eastern Conference contenders. We did the West version of this in the final episode of the PDOCast before we went away for holiday break, which feels like ages ago now already.

Um, it was the early stages of saxophone and square old when we were just getting into it. So it's, it's been a, it's been a long journey to this point. Now there's stickers. Now there's stickers. I got one on my laptop here as we're recording. We're going to take stock of where things are at at the all start break. We've got about 50 games worth of information for all these teams. I decided to segment it into, we're going to do the three top teams in the East by point percentage,

and then we're going to do two kind of like long shot borderline teams, exactly. And then we're going to save the others for a future show, just because I know you and I. We've done enough shows by now that we're going to do one team. We're going to be like 30 minutes in. And then we're going to be scrambling to jam in as much information as we can. And I don't want to rush. Especially because we're going to get to Carolina, harshly disagree. And then spend 20 minutes talking about the hurricanes in the world doesn't need that.

Yeah. Well, we'll save that for another day. And maybe we won't even record that episode or we won't actually publish it. We'll just have an off-air debate. Yeah. Let's start with the Florida Panthers, 66 points in 49 games. Honestly, the more I think about it, the more I look on it, the more I just, I dwell on this. I think they've got some serious wagon potential.

I really think there's a viable case to make that they're the best team in the league, but certainly in the Eastern Conference. And you can still get them if you're into this sort of thing as a Stanley Cup pick at very reasonable prices. It feels like the market for whatever reason hasn't really adjusted for how good I think they are. And part of that is because, you know, 66 points in 4-9 games is really good. I think the, what, second or third in the east in point percentage, but they're kind of stuck in this group of teams and it's sort of tough to decipher how strongly to feel about any of them. But man, from top to bottom, and I know you've got your questions about goaltending, I certainly

do as well. But like we talked about with Kings, obviously this, the nage the best considering everything else fell off for them, since we had that conversation about them, for example. But if you're going to have one concern about that, a team. I'm buying the dip on the Kings, I want to note. Yeah, but if you're, I don't have one concern about a team, I'm okay with it being goaltending, especially when the underlying defensive metrics are as good as they are

for this Panthers team. I think they can insulate whatever those concerns are. And defensively, offensively, special teams. I mean, I don't really know what the weakness is here beyond, I guess, injuries, but that's the case for every team. So let's start with the bull case. For the Panthers, which I think you just made, right? I don't have a bear case.

Well, the bear case is the goaltending. The bear case is hockey. The bear case is hockey and the bear case is the goaltending in particular. And especially harmful because in the Panthers case, you have, you know, what, 13 plus million caps base allocated in net, three of it's in the American League, 10 of it's in Sergei Bavrovsky, who we know got hot in the playoffs last year, but, you know, remains Sergei Bavrovsky. or like late career, Sergey Brabowski,

which is a very different animal from what his Vezna winning form was. And I don't think people should be confused about, you know, the fact that he's been above average this season behind a really good defensive team or the fact that he got ran hot for two months behind a team that was permitting absolutely zero chances. Yeah.

Against the hurricanes and the Maple Leafs, neither of whom could get inside on the Panthers. All of that said, I think that's the bull case. The bear case for me is that, you know and and i think it's an interesting thing where the panthers leave the stanley cup final so banged up that they basically had nobody to ice on defense going into the air yep and this is something that this panthers front office under bill zito seems to do really well like they're almost at their best placing bets in volume right we saw it during that sort of transformative 2020 offseason the fall of

2020. I feel like we might have seen it again this offseason where, you know, Oliver Ekman Larson here and like Mikola here and, you know, some players that I had real concerns about performing. They bought in bulk on all these blue liners. And now they're sort of able to spread the wealth a little bit where you've got this Ekblad, Forsling pair in particular. Yeah. that I think has given them a totally different gear, nitrous-wise. Forzing's a legitimate. Forzing is a legitimate. I don't want to say superstar,

because part of that is just like, you know, name brand value, I guess, or like hype, but like he's a legitimate star. Like every one of his performance metrics, and when you watch him, it's like, this guy is one of the best players in the league. He's definitely one of the best transitional defenders. And when you put him with a throwback guy like Ekblad, right?

Like Aaron Ekblad would have been the most dominant defenseman in 1998. Right. You know what I mean? Like, now he's still. And he still is in the playoffs. Hmm? He still has a playoffs because it's a 1990-hockey baby. Right.

That's the old Zedano Char thing, the splits between his playoff and postseason penalty is taken rate. No, but I mean, Eckblad's throwback in terms of his style, I think it's a perfectly calibrated pair. And I feel like that's given them a totally different gear five on five. And then here's the other part of the bull case for the Panthers for me. Like, I watched that Penguins game, the shootout win. Okay. On Friday night, yeah. And I thought they were dominant.

Like, I know it was a shootout win, but they were, it was a weird thing where I was like, wow, the penguins getting kind of lucky. Yeah. But the thing that sticks out to me in my mind is, you know, you've got Barkov, Kachuk, and Reinhardt, all playing on different lines in that game five on five. And one thing that I think's worth considering or noting is Paul Maurice, who's got this team playing such incredible defense. defense as a team, I think also has a lot more levers to pull than your average coach. And that depending on certain matchups in the playoffs, there's ways for them to give their engine even more fuel. And that, to me, gives them almost limitless ceiling. I think they're going to win their division.

And I think they're going to be, in my mind anyway, that's the best team in the East. Well, here's the thing. Despite all of that defensive personnel, you mentioned the start of the year, right, without Montere and Ekblad for the first, whatever, 10, 15 games. Third and expected goals against, second in shots allowed, first and slot shots allowed, second in offensive zone time conceded. And they've stumbled upon this, like when you watch teams like Florida play right now, I think they really stumbled upon a formula that works in today's game in the sense that we keep

wondering, all right, how do they keep getting away with just everyone they seem to bring in, they get the best version of themselves compared to where they were previously. Except Ventura and Claude Drew, but yes. And because they don't fit. Exactly what I'm about to say, which is they play so aggressively. And I talked about us a lot when I did the Barkov deep dive where essentially they just ask everyone to contest every single puck and keep skating forwards. And that's all you have to do. And then so if you come in there, it's like, first off, it's a very fun environment if you have any skill because you get more opportunities.

But also your list of responsibilities is so much lower. Whereas on your previous team, if you're a defenseman, like, Oliverickman-Larsen, it's like, all right, I'd have to cover this guy backdoor. This is my assignment. like you're juggling seven different things and if you lose half a step all of a sudden you're playing from behind whereas in this case your route tree is very defined it's literally just see puck go after puck forward and so it's beautiful and it's really fun to watch and I think that's why they're so effective so I mentioned all defensive stats five on five they're top three and essentially everything offensively they're lagging a bit behind and I think that's still just because kachuk started so slowly

whether you want to attribute that to recovering from the offseason injury or the Stanley cup final injury. I also do think that's what happens when you lose both Montour and Ekblatt at the same time, like especially Montour in terms of his ability to. And he was also, I mean, he was like the biggest regression candidate ever, right? If you just looked at like what he was still generating versus how much he was scoring. And then now last 15 games, 11 goals, 16 assists for good shock. So there's that power play, which was one of their few weaknesses last year, right? They were one of the few teams that because of their personnel was still using two defensemen for a long period of time in Ekblatt and Montour. recently they've been running this this formation with kachak,

Barkov, Reinhardt, Verhege, and Montur, and they've only played 50 minutes together at 5-on-5-on-P-1 but they grade out as the best power play in the league. And so you put that together with everything else and I think this is a really, really good team. And we should talk a little about San Reinhart as well, a favorite of mine and yours. 37 goals and 49 games on Pace for 62.

He scored in 15 of the past 17 games. He has more power. play goals than the capitals, the Blackhawks. He's tied with his former team of the Sabres and the Pittsburgh Penguins we were to talk about later. Man, there's a lot to like here. I guess my one sort of, and maybe this is more to the bull case, I think they should be about as all in as any team in the league this season.

With what? No, but I mean, well, with what? I mean, you can always get creative with futures and also with prospects, right? I just think, like, for them, if you look at it, they, got Reinhardt and Montour and Forre's laying up this summer. Yeah. And I don't know what the figures are going to come in, but considering what those guys make right now, it's going to be a massive pay scale hike on that.

And then the following summer, Ekblad, Bennett, and Verhege. Like, this is the window. Yeah. Right? And I'm sure they're going to get creative. They're going to get some discounts to keep guys because of all the things we know about. But I just think, like, pushing all in with whatever they have, I think is almost imperative for the season.

and the team is good enough to justify it. So I think maybe that's even an added bowl case for them. But man, I think there's a lot to like. I think the only thing I'd like is... They just don't have a first round pick until 2020. I know. I know. They don't have a second this year.

I know, I know. They have some stuff to move, but it is going to be lean-ish. But that's fine. I think honestly what they need is like, I'd like them to add another speedy winger that they can conceivably play on Barcove's wing if they decide to use that line they use in the playoffs with Reinhardt, Lundell and Lus Doreen as like a checking line, kind of replacing what they lost in Duclair and like a guy who can just sprint up the ice

and Barkoff can get it to him for breakaways. What about Duclair? Yeah. Just like do the reunion with some retention from the, uh, from the shark set. Just pretend the past six months didn't have him. Give him a little California getaway and come back with a new lease on life. Yeah. I mean, no, I like the Speedy Winger thing.

I also do think adding one more. ideally right-handed, because that was the other thing about their survival in October that was kind of amazing was they played six lefties, right? And when you look at their third pair, like the other night against the penguins, it was Kulikov, Ekman Larson with Kulikov playing his right side. Mahura is sort of the seventh defender on the roster, also a lefty. Like I do think another guy with some pace, you know what I mean? if you were able to have forsling montour and another guy with some pace on your three pairs, I think you'd be in a really good shape. It's going to be hilarious when we do our annual trades we'd like to see because I'm just

going to have 47 different variations of a Sean Walker trade. Right. And yesterday I was doing a show with Sean Shapiro, and I'm like, yeah, I really like him for the stars team. I really like him for this panthers team. Yeah. A right shot guy who is phenomenal at jumping into the rush and making a three on three into a four on three.

It's like, yeah, that'll look good on this team. Chris Tanov. Yeah. Chris Annavite. And not the speediest guy? No, no. Not as much. I mean, just a good right shot.

Yeah, yeah. Well, and I'm just thinking, I'm just thinking, you know, Panthers' front office flack, Roberto Luongo, goes against the reunion with his 2011 teammate. Okay. Any other notes on the Panthers or do you want to move on to the Rangers? Let's do Rangers. Okay. So 63 points in 49 games reeling off a disastrous January. Yeah.

Where they went 5, 7, and 2. Their wins in January came against the Blackhawks, the Capitals. the cracking at home, the ducks and the senators. What's interesting to me about them is they're 12th in goals, 10th and expected goals generated. They're 9th in goals against and 8th in expected goals against, which means they're right in line with what our expectations should be for them based on how they've played.

And I guess the reason why, like, that's all really good. They're hovering around the top 10 and both. But it also isn't what they've been previously, what we've come to expect, which is a team that confounds a lot of, lot of analytical measures because of their efficiency and their skill in high leverage spots in the lineup. And that hasn't really been the case this year. They've actually kind of been the team they deserve to be. And it obviously started really hot. And now we're having this

conversation. It's sort of at a valley. But the aggregate is kind of exactly what they should have been, which is an aberration from what they've been in the past couple seasons. Right, where they've outperformed, outpunched, outkick their coverage. Yeah. Yeah. The, well, and that's really stopped this month, right? Like, the, the bull case for the Rangers, let's start there. Because the bull case for me for the New York Rangers is to this point in the season, Igor Shisterkin has not been the Igor Shostirkin we know and love. Or love to hate if you're not, if you hate the Rangers, right? I'm the best goaltender on the planet.

Yeah. He hasn't been that this year. No. But I still think he's that. Like, I still think, obviously, Andre Vasselowski went fully healthy and everything's going. I think is the human being you'd put in net for the. you know, game against the aliens for the fate of the world, but Shisterkin would be backing up.

And I think you can make the case. Would Vasilowski be a net for the humans or the aliens? The AI. He'd be an internet for the robot. My point being, that's the tandem. And Shasturkin, I think you can make the argument that he should start. But he hasn't been that this season. But he is that guy.

If he gets right at any point, the Rangers are going to eat. And he wasn't nearly on top of his game in January. although I do think while they controlled play and on and on, like I don't think the Rangers blue line, I don't think their team defense, it was very good this month. Like now I saw them get dunked on at Madison Square Garden. Yes.

Well, that was my only live view. By the Vancouver Globetrotters. By the Vancouver Globetrotters. But so that's my, you know, I saw probably K. Andre Miller's worst game in four years. You know what I mean? Adam Fox looked far from his usual self. I know he's recovering from him.

injury, but that blue line was a mess that night in particular. And we know, and we know that, you know, two-way talent up front's been a longstanding issue for them when they compounded at the deadline last year. See, I think that, I think you just laid out the bare case, unfortunately. Yeah. Because Cheserickin's 901 say percentage or hovering around 900 is obviously very suppressed. He's going to come back, though. He's got like a minus two goals of all expected.

Like, he's kind of been what you'd expect based on workload. Now, obviously, when he's at. as best you'd expect them to like exceed that right and be a massive positive value but the issue for them is you look at by clear side analytics steve aliquette has them defensively at 30 second in the league in expected goals against off the rush and part of that what you mentioned is is the is the blue line and the defense i actually think the bigger issue is the foot speed of the forwards and i just think like lavalette wants them playing a bit more aggressively up the ice and you've seen the sort of negative of that, which is they don't really have the foot speed as a team to recover and support the

defense. And it makes sense when you look at the forward group they have for as much talent as there is there. There's only really like one or two guys that you would actually classify as a plus skater up front, right? And so that's a massive concern for me. And that's also why I'm seeing a lot of, oh, they need a third line center. Are they in on Sean Monaghan or Adam Henrique? And I couldn't think like I couldn't think of a worse fit for them right now. I mean, they need a center, certainly with Philippa now being out for the season,

and I hope he gets healthy and we can see him in the future. But man, like they need to add someone who can actually skate. I don't need another plotting guy that can fit in with Blake Wheeler at this point. Like I want someone who can actually do what they're sorely lacking on this team, which is getting back and supporting the defense. Yeah. Yeah,

they're north-south, the north-south component of their, game is just lacking. And I think, yeah, they can't go for the marquey names. They need to go and do their version of like Godreau Coleman. You know what I mean? You need like competitive guys to bolster. Oh God, they do not need Barkley Goodrow.

Their answer to the, their answer to having Barkley Goodrow on their team. To the 2020 version of Barkley Goodrolin. Yeah, yeah, I know what you mean. They need like a couple cap-friendly drivers who are hyper-competitive. You know, eschew the big names. Do not stuff the marquee on Broadway. I think that's the key if they're going to get back on track. So my pal, Johnny Lazarus, who covers his team, had this stat.

And I actually kind of blew my mind because I had to check to make sure it was right. Not that I'm questioning his fact checking, but he pointed this out. They don't have a single forward on the team between the age of 24 and 29. Yeah, that's wild. Like, Cocoa's turning 23 in like a week or two. And then Lafranier and Wouli are 22. everyone else is in their 30s. Philip Heedle would have been the answer that he's 24, I believe.

But like that's kind of wild when you think about the fact that the prime years for a forward are somewhere in that range, right? Like maybe it is even a bit earlier. Maybe it is 22 to 24. But like you'd think in that 24 to 26 window, you'd have a couple guys who are firing on all cylinders and instead every single forward on their team is in their 30s other than those guys. So that's kind of alarming.

Want to talk a little about Panarin? Sure. Do you think it's him or Elias Pedersen as the spokesman for hashtag Playbald? Because both guys at certain points have cut the hair off and embraced the whole new persona. I think it's him. It is, right? I think he made a bigger deal about it. Well, I've just never seen, I've never, I can't think of any 32-year-old, like at this point of their career,

this established that underwent a bigger statistical transformation than him. Like he's added eight shot attempts per hour of play to his total from the past couple years. Like he's, it's, it's, I've never seen anything really like it for a player at this point where they just all of a sudden decided to shoot more. And maybe it is part of an answer of, you know, the past couple post seasons, it's been, all right, too tentative, like not nearly aggressive enough and kind of a compensation for that. but it's just so rare for a player this late into their career to all of a sudden just fundamentally change the player they are and it's been it's been effective like yeah yeah i mean what he's two goals away from his career high and he's two five on five goals away from his career high there too so it's really the even strength shot shot rate that's uh that's driving that no it's cool it's cool like he didn't play well enough i'm it's in other sports like i feel like we saw this with mac david the year that Matthews won the heart trophy,

and I believe, by the way, like, that Matthews deserved the heart trophy that year. But McDavid, like, took the summer and then came back and scored 50 plus goals. Like, it was like he wanted to remind people that I love seeing a player take something hard and then go out and prove it. Like,

that's one of the funest things to see in sports. Panarin's clearly done it. He deserves a ton of credit. They got to find, they got to find a way to support him better because this team deserves. And generally, though, that's like a chance. A player that's 25, 26, though. And it's like, all right, they went into the lab and they added another thing to their game.

It's not a 32-year-old coming back. Yeah, but you know, you can't be Panarin at 32 if you're not finding ways to adapt, right? Like, that's, and it's like, like, like, Pavelski at the net front or J.T. Miller becoming a power play ways or, you know, like at some point if you're going to keep growing your game. It doesn't matter how old you are. You've got to keep adding tricks. Anything else in the Rangers, or do you want to go to the next team? No, I'm just, I'm just shocked by the play of their blue line. That, to me, was the thing that stuck out to me most in live viewings

and in subsequent television viewing since. Like, I've always been really high on Miller and Fox, and every time I watched them this month, that just that team looked a little bit lost in terms of how they were playing on the back end. I still have, like, a lot of. lot of belief in Lavillette and also the talent level of this group, but I do think you're right to connect it to sort of the lack of speed up front. They're going to have trouble playing a North-South game without ads.

All right. Let's actually take our break here a bit earlier than usual just because I don't want to start the next team and then kind of get in that awkward position where we're having to cut it short. So we're going to take our break here and then we come back. We'll pick things back up with Thomas Drance who are listening to the Hockey P.Docast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. The most opinionated Canucks show out there. Talk with Jamie Dodd and Thomas Drans.

Be sure to subscribe on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, we're back here in the Hockey P.D.O. cast joined by Thomas Drans. We're doing our Bear versus Bull case for the Eastern Conference. I'm glad we made the executive decision before starting to split things up because we're two teams in halfway through the show. So if we had decided to do all eight or nine teams or whatever we had initially planned. I will say, though, like the next team we're going to do, I think should be Boston. Yep. So that we can get through one relatively quickly.

because their goal tending is a huge part of the story, obviously. Right. And then the other part of the story is, don't bet against the Boston Bruins. Yeah. Just give it up. Stop doing it. Don't ever take a Bruins under before the season.

This year officially proved it. Yeah, they're tied with the Canucks for first and point percentage. Eight of their 17 losses are in three-on-three overtime. They've trailed for 17% of their game time this season. That's like 500 minutes in nearly 50 games. Just outrageous. is there has been a bit, as I noted in the past, a bit of like five on five and in particular defensive regression, which is understandable when you lose a player of Patrice Bergeron's

calibers, certainly. But the goaltending is covered up for it and the special teams. Yes. Right? Where they're fifth on the power play, seventh on the PK, and then the goaltending, as you mentioned, it's not just that they're getting really good goaltending. It's, I think, the consistency of it, right? Where they essentially, not only don't they get any bad game.

because they always have either Swamen or Allmark and Net, but they also don't get any bad goals against really within those games. Like they didn't give up a goal outside of the slot for the first like 20 games or something of the season. Like it was like good luck shooting from the outside. These guys are just gonna swallow that up. And that's such a massive luxury that I think everyone is generally aware of. And like as you're right, when we talk about the Bruins, that's sort of the first thing that comes up right now.

But it also probably doesn't get enough credit for a like, like the impact it can have on everyone else on the team, right? Where it's like, we always talk about that psychological effect of if you don't trust your goalie or if the goalie doesn't trust the defense, then all of a sudden you're like covering something that you shouldn't know because you don't trust that someone else is going to be there. And in this case, it makes everyone's life so much more simple when it's like, if I do my job, I know the goalie will do his and I won't be.

And we're going to win it as. I won't be going back to the bench wearing this minus because he let me down. And so then everyone else just gets like an added layer of, of easiness to their game. It just feels like the organization's gotten the habit of accumulating 75% of the points available points every year. Yeah. And they can't quit it. They're like, you know, me with basketball parlias or something. It's unbelievable.

Well, they're actually winning. Yeah, that's true. The, uh, that Flyers win the other night. Yeah. Where they didn't even have their normal lines together. And we're kind of just dunking on this Flyers team that I'm pretty high on. Yeah. Are we talking about the flyers?

No. No, we can do them on the next show. I've talked about them a bunch of recent episodes. But they're cool. I don't think that's a team that we're looking at is like a paper tiger bound to slip in the second half of the year, although that may happen. Mm-hmm. Especially if the devils get healthy and the penguins, you know. Or if they decide the trade players, as they've said they will.

Right. But I mean, the Bruins were all over them. And it was this like sort of bizarreo pasturnack line. with Van Riemsk and Zaka, that's right. You know, it's like there's different configurations and they all work and they all look like Bruins hockey and they still somehow have that Bergeron thing where you almost, they play like a team

whose eyes light up on the back check. And that always strikes me as extremely rare. Yeah, I think what Pastor and I'm doing right now deserves way more credit than it's getting. And part of it is like we're just becoming so dissatisfied. sensitized by this Kucharov-McKinnon every night. One time is getting three points and they're just going back and forth. And then McDavid's making a surge.

All Matthews is scoring every night. Like some of the figures you're seeing right now from these star players are just so through the roof that it's becoming, I guess, like the norm or we're becoming unexpected. But I think what Pasternak's doing in terms of 55 goals, 120 point pace. He has 25 more points than anyone on his own team. And he's doing it in this year where for how many years now were we like, all right, yeah, he's producing a lot offensively. But man, he's in a good spot where he gets to play with.

all these great players who do a lot of the heavy lifting and dirty work for him and he just kind of gets to stand there and score cool goals and then celebrate and that's not really the case this year and yet in year one of this mega extension he's just basically not only backing up what he did last year in a contract year but almost like doubling down on it in terms of getting even better and i think that's that's that's about like his badass of a performance yeah as you can have because he would have every reason i think to take a bit of a step back for like i just got paid i don't I don't have as many good players. I'm just going to coast on this a little bit, and he has not done that at all.

The Bruins, the Bruins don't get that. They get star level player leveling up, continuing to score. Like, the one thing about Passternack is Passernerac scores goals that I've never seen before, and he does it on a regular basis, right? Like, there's no, I don't even have a comp. I can't even go back to history and be like, oh, yeah, I've seen a guy's score like that. Like, he's completely original. It's so much fun.

By the way, you brought it McKinnon. And I just want to spotlight this for your attention. Books have started taking bets on Nathan McKinnon to record a point in all 41 Avalanche home games. So is 16 left? Yeah, 15 to 1. Yeah, I mean... It's just fun.

I just figured I'd spotlight that for you. I mean, I think it's one of those things where I'm sure he's aware of it by now. So it probably becomes a bit of a personal agenda as well, right? And especially if you're like up late in the game and there's an empty net. You know, like you get the player out there for a hatchwork opportunity. You're going to get him out there in case he doesn't have a point to try and... Yeah, like the McCaffrey touchdownster. Yeah.

You don't want to be on the other side of that. No. Okay. Anything else in the Bruins? I think we kind of covered it for the most part, right? Pastor Nax's amazing. Their goaltending is amazing. I'm stunned that they're this good again.

I also don't think they're as good as the Panthers, and I don't think they're going to win the division. That's the base, Coles note summary of my Bruins stakes. I agree with that. Okay. Our, unfortunately, New Jersey Devils, and I say that because, man, we were so, high on this team. I know. I feel so let down because they were so fun to watch last season.

Yeah. And they were appointment viewing. And this year, I'm still watching them. I mean, it's my job to do so, but also I keep tuning in. I've been sort of trained from last year. I'm tuning in being like, all right, I'm excited to watch this game. And then you quickly watch it and you're instantly find yourself hate watching it almost because it's like, man, this is just not what I signed up for. I mean, I've still seen them play fun games. Well, and they had that game. Like, I think they're still capable because they're just trailing so much and so early. They're capable of hitting that gear where they use score effects as like a launching pad to get back in games.

And the one that sticks in my mind is the one they played against Vegas recently, right, where they came back and they wound up winning in overtime to Foley Hattrick. That's sick. Luke Hughes feed to Tofoli on the wire. So I think they're still capable of that, but it just, it just, it looks different and understandably considering how many man games they lost from key players. What's your. on Tim Omyer.

Were we just wrong? Oh, man, I can't, I can't do this again. I feel like we've talked about this, no? We have, but I'm still, like, the last time we talked about it, I still thought he'd figure it out. I just don't notice him. Yeah. I used to notice him.

Yeah. I mean, I think he's been banged up. Yeah. And then he needs to adjust a little bit as well. And I also just think kind of underestimated the fit in terms of a guy who is at his best is, like, creating the pace. But he's on a team with guys who are better. at that. So how does he fit into that? He can't really play with them. And so then if he's not,

he's playing with like below average guys who don't really help him in other ways. And so it's kind of, he's kind of caught in an awkward position. I do think you lose Dougie Hamilton and you lose Jack Hughes. Yeah. And it's going to be hard. Like, show me a team that lost their best forward and their best defensemen, right? And I'll show you a team underperforming our expectations prior to the year. I'm sure there's more going on, but I also think under the, the surface, there's some stuff happening that is wholly positive in terms of slingshoting this team back up, the standings either when Hughes returns and they get healthier or going forward, like next season. And, you know, Simone Nemich has been sick. He's been really good. Really sick.

Yeah. And then, you know, I don't, I, Jack Hughes isn't having Luke, uh, sorry, Luke Hughes isn't having Quinn Hughes's rookie season, but he's still going to be a really, really good player for that team for a really long time. No, he is. I mean, it's not only like, Dougie's missed the 27 games, Jackson's the 15, but then I've got Meyer for 13, and in brackets I wrote, has even played the season. A lot. Nico's missed 12, Platt's 10, Siegenthallor 9, Holl has missed a bunch of games as well.

So that's an issue. Giving up the first goal in 34 or 47 games this year, and I've trailed for the 25th most amount of time. 31st and save percentage, and I think when we did our show after the Hughes Bowl, where like, man, Vitech Vaneczek, looks like he cannot track a puck right now. I want to hit some. He has no idea how to actually hold onto it.

That hasn't really changed. All three goalies they've used this season are both sub-900s8 percentage and also in the negatives and goals able above expected. But they've also regressed as a team. And part of it is because of the skaters they've missed. I think part of it is I don't really know what the plan is with the coaching right now, like even with the personnel they had. Because even when we've seen them healthy, they're still a good team.

but what made them special last year, they kind of went away from that a little bit and just regressed back to being a pure rush team. Yeah, as opposed to the warps. They're bleeding a lot. Yeah, of course. They're not really using that to leverage turnovers and sort of suffocate you.

And it's tough to do so through a full regular season. Yeah. Like, I think that's kind of more reserved for short spurts, late in games, and also when you get to the postseason. But we haven't really seen that. And maybe part of it is just not having the personnel

and part of it might be the coaching. I'm not sure. I've sort of a combination of the, the two but yeah i think it all adds up i don't think it's as simple as like one thing i'm sure if their goalies are playing better this might be a bit of a lesser issue but i i also think it's one thing too when you come into the season with not no expectations but it you know it's new that you're performing like an elite team and that creates its own gravity its own sense of momentum and and energy versus a team where you're like really holding the for it all year you know

and there's a lot of young players who are still coming along uh guys like whole Colts, right? And then the two young defensemen, although I think they've been exceptional. I mean, I fundamentally think this is injuries and goaltending, and I do think that's, the thing about the Devils is I don't feel comfortable excluding them from any list of like... That's why we included them on this list.

Right, of like 12 or 13 teams that could win the cop. Yeah. Right? Because, you know, I mean, do we have clarity on Hamilton? I think he's out for the regular season. Out for the regular season. Yeah. But not,

but I mean, he could get back at some point. Well, yeah, and that's why my question was how, if you're running the team, and they've got some smart people running the team, certainly.

Yeah. How aggressive is the mandate for this season? Because obviously I don't think you want to get into a position where you're taking on a bunch of future money. No. After that LTIR money comes off, right? But they're in a position now where they are capable of adding salary.

And Dom hasn't had a 30% playoff probability, yet I'm with you, where I think they're a very interesting Dark Horse team because there's still six unexpected goals generated, ninth and actual goal scored despite all of those injuries. Like when we've seen Hughes and his year in the lineup together, they're still absolutely frightening. And so I'm just curious, like, if you were running the team, are you like, oh, man, this has just been a cursed season. It's not going to work out, but we still have our core in place and they're still young enough where, we're going to take a long view, or are you viewing it through the lens of, we still have a bunch of firepower, we could get healthier at the right time, and also I just don't want to waste a season where Jack Hughes and Nico Hishir are making this little compared to other top two centers.

Totally. I think the, yeah, this is what, one of your four crucial years with that. Yeah. Heeshire. Sorry, that Heeshire Hughes alignment. I don't think you want to waste it. Like, Yesper Brats, still at the absolute top. his power is that there's enough upside here that I think that I think the devils should probably

be looking to be aggressive. I mean, if you try to make a move, like what I, what I'd sort of love to see them do would be to try and make a move by a multi-year piece, ideally a goalie, right? But like not a guy who's just a rental, but like, you know, Jacob Markstrom stands out to me because he's perfect if you are playing high tempo. Like if you're playing up-tempo hockey and need a guy, as Kevin Woodley would call it, catching bullets with his teeth behind a patchwork defense. Like, he's kind of the guy for that.

I love that fit. And, you know, he's got a buyout-proof contract with a lot of signing bonuses these last two years and a full NMC. If Calgary decides to move on, if decides to take sort of a longer review retooling, with this roster, which I think we all think they should. Yeah. Is there an opportunity to get, whether there's salary retention or very little price paid?

Like, is there a way to get a multi-year piece without significantly altering your future? And if you don't turn it around over the course of the next month, then I think you can recoup some assets with, you know, your to Foley, Colin Miller kind of rental tier. Right. Like I'd almost see them do a hybrid thing where it's like, hey, let's give it a month and see if we can hang around. and if we can't, let's go get assets. Yeah. That would be what I'd like to see from them. Yeah.

And I think the goalie is what you need. You need someone to just hold the fort. Well, you just need Jackie's to come back. Well, that too, but that's going to happen anyway. Right. Just not in time for him to play in the All-Star game, which sucks because he's one of the most exciting players to watch in hockey. Yeah.

Yeah, I'd be very reticent of punting a season as bleak as it's been so far. And the fact that they're still hovering around that's bottom. And like the metro is so, I think that's clouding a lot of things right now. And we're going to talk about the penguins here in a second. But I just still think they're just the raw firepower. I would put them ahead of obviously teams like the capitals, the flyers and even the islanders. And so all of a sudden. And the Red Wings.

Yeah. And so all of a sudden it's like, yeah, you get in. We've seen what works for them in terms of playing style. And so as long as you get healthy and you make a few adjustments, I think there's a reason to be high on this team. But man, it's been every night, it just feels like one gut punch after another watch. Yeah, no, they, I mean, I saw them play one of, like, I saw them play some vintage devil's hockey early in the air. Yeah. And then I saw them almost come back, but it was like four point shot goals, like just an ugly performance.

In fact, the devils were, the way the devils got flattened by the Canucks in Newark in January was like a big game in terms of me being like, oh, man, is this Connox team really good? Yeah. So, yeah, no, it's been miserable, miserable for the Devils. but they still have unparalleled upside in my view. Yeah, I think plus 2,200 Stanley Cup odds. Yeah, see, that's like, depending on the books you go to, like there's a lot of concentrated, there's a lot of concentrated odds. Edmonton's like emerging as a prohibitive favorite sort of across the board

a variety of books. But for me, the devils, the Panthers, like those would be the ones that really loom large, especially because Stanley Cup futures is such a. tough market. Yeah. All right, let's close with the Penguins. Another long-shot team here.

Dom has them actually all the way up at 75% playoff probability, but they're plus 4,000, I believe, in terms of their Stanley Cup odds. Yeah. Now, here's thing.

Well, it's because Dom's model sees them far outpacing what they've done to this point, but you look at the NHL standings. And... Well, they have 51 points in 46 games, so they're like right firmly in that tier with...

Six points back in Detroit, but with four games in hand, something like that. And I'll be... And a lot of these models weight 5-1-5 performance pretty heavily. Right. Right. And they don't know that they've gone like the meme with the guy in the corner.

It's like they don't know that we went six weeks without scoring a power play goal. Yeah, the guy at the party, just standing by himself with a drink in his hand. Yeah. Well, at 5-15, they're seventh in shot share, sixth in chance share, seventh in goal share, right? So you look at it, it's like, all right, this is a top 10 team. The issue is that they're scoring less than five goals per hour on the power play. The only team's worse than them are the Flyers and the Blackhawks. And they've just left so many points.

on the table this season. There's seven, five, and seven in one goal games. You know, they've gotten some, I think they've gotten a really inspired season from Lars Ellerer this season. Yep. But I still think. Love Lars Eller. They're just putting so much on, on the odometer for, for their top guys out of necessity.

And they're just, it's tricky because I've seen them play really well. Like when they're, when they're on, they've had seven shutout wins this. season and they've absolutely suffocated teams like the avalanche that I think of in defensively where they just didn't really give them anything all game and it was like man I can see the outline of what this team can be but then you watch certain performances and they just look so unhappy the effort is so all over the place and it just doesn't look like anything resembling that team I actually think it's not that party meme you were referencing with the guy in the corner with a drink I actually think it's it's like that half drawn horse meme where like they're five one five play and like in certain

games it's like man this is a masterpiece i'm going to hang this up on the wall and then you're like rushing to finish it in finish it up and hand it in and it's just like a scribble drawing of of the rest of the body and that's what it is and so i'm not sure why there is reason to expect that this is meaningfully going to change right like this is the oldest team in the league and we've seen 50 games of this now, barring some sort of massive fundamental change, which I don't think is necessarily in the cards, is it time to just kind of be like, yeah, this is who they are at this point? Yeah. I mean, I don't think we're there yet, but I'm really troubled by how little they score without cross-bile. How is that going to change with the personnel they have? No, I don't know.

I mean, that's, that's really the rub. Like, record Raquel could start scoring more, certainly. Like, he's been very unlucky on that front. But otherwise, this kind of feels like the team they are, which is they're good at certain things. They're structurally sound. Yes. They have a great first line.

They should have enough goaltending in depth, but they're going to need to win games on a knife's edge despite controlling play. Well, I've seen a lot of, like, listen, he's a good coach, but the message is just gone and Staling. I need to replace the coach. I just don't understand how you're going to get better at this point by replacing Mike Sullivan. Even if you think it's not optimized or fully efficient in certain areas.

But I mean, where? The only place where I'd say it sucks that they haven't been able to figure out, for figure that out and brain power should be able to figure that out would be their five on four play. Like surely there's got to be a way to make five guys that talent at work together. Well, that's why honestly, it gets me every time seeing the Todd Weirden memes of that video of him pulling out the whiteboard

and like starting to write something and then just kind of blankly looking at it and then putting it away and it's like, what's he cooking up? And that's, yeah, I think that's probably where you'd start. But I guess I'm curious, like Crosby is having such a monstrous season, right? He's fifth and five-on-five points.

He's on pace 48 goals. He's got 42 primary points in the 46 games with him and Gensel and the other. they're absolutely dominant. Yeah. But you're also reaching this point where what do you do with Jay Gensel? I know.

Well, I mean, given his age and given the age of Crosby and Company, like he's the guy on the roster most likely to still be a high-level performer in Crosby's Twilight, right? Yeah. I don't know. That to me is not the guy that starts.

Well, you're also not going to be able to replace his salary with anything resembling his production. No. And so I don't really see how you make that move without taking a massive step back. And at that point, are you doing that as an organization when Crosby's still playing at this level?

Probably not. No, you shouldn't. I mean, you can't abandon, like, they signaled their intent, right? They signed a new president of hockey operations forever for seven years, right? That's a signal that there's going to be multiple phases to this. Yeah. Then that new executive went out and made a ton of,

of win now moves. Why are you speaking about him? Like he's Voldemort. You're allowed to say his name. Kyle Dubas. Yeah. Sorry, I didn't mean, uh, I was just so ominous. I was just trying to do the fact pattern.

It's not like the duby who they hired he who shall not be named. He's got some version of Avata cadavera, but it's like for Ryan Graves. Working in the shadows. Um, no, but, but I was just trying to track the pattern. His, his horrockses were Michael Granlin and Jan Ruda and. Oh, man. and a pair of Leafs pajamas. The,

the, no, so you bring in Dubas, you sign me with seven year deal, you make a bunch of win now moves, you're going to abandon it over half a season in which, like,

part of your thesis, which is some, at least some of our sunsetting superstars are still elite players you can win with, has proven out now. Has it proven out entirely? Would, like,

Does this team have something of an Evgeny Malkin problem? I say yes, I think so when I watch them play. Still good. Yeah, but I mean, he's like what he's being, he's not being paid as of Genni Malkin anymore. No, he's not. Right? I get like on the power play,

maybe it's a bit of an issue because you just defer to him because of who he is and what he represents. And that can be a bit of a problem when you get into that awkward stage of like a star player or super star player in their final years where they still think they are who they are, but they're not anymore. I'd like them to have another driving center

so that he could be a little more sheltered a little more like offensive specialist five on five anyway well that's kind of what they're doing and that's why i think mike sullivan is actually doing a really good job like one of the best coaches in this you look like no la chari 39 offensive zone draws this year 515 264 in a defensive zone same with lariseller and then they're just using crosby and malcolm almost exclusively for offensive zone draws and that's what you should do at this point 100% no i still i still so the the bull case for the penguins is they sort out the power play just enough that they start to come out on the winning end of some of these one goal games and their

overall solidity and the strength of their top line carries them. I find that compelling. Well, no, isn't the bull case just get into the playoffs and all of a sudden, 5-1-5 is even more important because there's going to be no three-on-three. There's no three-on-three and there's fewer, there's still going to be power play opportunities, but it's not as magnified, I guess. And so in that case, it's like, yeah, we're going to play a large part of this game at 5-15, and we've established that we're really good at that. Yeah. So, so yeah, I mean, and I think they're going to make the playoffs. Like, I like this team to catch one of Detroit or Philadelphia.

I, I, the Gensel thing makes no sense to me. And some of the recent rumblings about them, like, taking a longer view to a two or three year window, like, that does, I really struggle to understand how that makes sense. Like, two or three years from now, how old are Latang, Grosby and Malkin? Well, it isn't like bringing in he who shall not be named to run your team and giving him the, amount of term you do, isn't that also a concession that we're going to ride this thing absolutely into the ground for two or three more years? And then you're going to get the leeway to have another three years of absolutely tearing everything down and rebuilding it. And then we'll sort of deal with judging where we're at six years from a language of that deal. That's the way I read that. Yeah,

100%. So which is why I was going over it in vague terms. Not because. And everyone knows it seven is the the most magical number of all. Seven years, seven Hork Christ. Yeah. Yeah, no, I'm, look, it's been so frustrating to watch this team play, but they're still good. They're still structurally sound. I'm buying shares. I'm buying Penguins shares over the balance of the season.

To make the playoffs? To make the playoffs. Yes. Yeah. And to be a really tough out. Yeah. You know, like I think they're going to make the playoffs and then I think they're going to have a real shot. You know, to me, this is sort of.

what makes the East a little more interesting to me than the West for the first round. On the one hand, in the West, you're going to have like three really good teams out in round one, which is, you know, always fun. But it feels like in the East, two of the most dangerous teams aren't even guaranteed to make the playoff spot. Like over the next couple months, you know, it's going to be like a fight between a bunch of teams that should be fighting for the last playoff spot out West. But in the east, it's like, if the Devils get healthy and make it in, or the Penguins get healthy and make it in, I could see them going deep. Like, I could see them playing in the late match. Yeah, and that's, I think that's a big win for us, right?

Because isn't so often the complaint, like, we already kind of know what to expect from the standings. Well, that's what you're seeing at West, right? It's like seven spots are basically sewn up so long as the Kings can write the ship. I guess there could be some extra drama there if the Kings keep imploding. But then it's like, you know, a tier of teams like Nashville, the Cracken, St. Louis, Coyotes. Yeah, like teams that should be scraping to make it in the play. playoffs but we also kind of have a decent sense that they're probable first round um like fodder yeah yeah fodder so cannon fodder truly so you know uh for the for the for the

stretch run anyway i feel like the east is going to be just a magnificent viewing experience yeah okay so we left the hurricanes lightning leaves and then red wings islanders and then capitals and fires we would do those in a future episode 20 minutes on daniel sprang so yeah so we'll save that for a future episode. You and I'll reconvene certainly. We got some time here. Oh, we should have also shouted him out as one of the representatives of team play ball. Well, he's still, I think he's still hanging on. We're going to have you on again. We'll do the rest of those teams. And then, I think your next appearance after that is going to be our third or fourth annual trades we'd like to see, which we hinted at earlier with our pal, Jack Fraser. This year guarantees to be the

most deranged and depraved version of all. I think we're going to. We'll, see how long we go. I'm booking off a full week for it. I feel like we always nail the lightning trade. I think we've had a very good track record. Yeah, we actually have that. Like, shockingly so, considering how many convoluted three teamers are also sprinkled in. Tom, anything to plug on the way out? Just listen to Canucks Talk, Sportsnet 650 or wherever you find your podcasts and a ton of trade deadline coverage coming up at the athletic. Looking forward to it, bud. We're having on again soon. Thank you to everyone for listening to us. That is all for today. we'll be back with plenty more of the Hockey Gocast streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network.