The Hockey PDOcast - Bear vs. Bull Cases for Eastern Conference Stanley Cup Contenders

Episode Date: February 9, 2026

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Thomas Drance to go through the bear vs. bull cases for each Stanley Cup contender in the Eastern Conference. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

dressing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey-PedioCast. My name is Dmitri Filipovich and joining me for our Sunday special, an extra special one. We're recording earlier today before the Super Bowl to bank this so that we can watch football afterwards. My good buddy, Thomas Trans, Tom.

What's going on, man? Well, I'm excited for the Super Bowl, obviously. I'm going to be sad that there's no football until September, but also I feel like football's ending at the perfect time for me to be waking up at 2 a.m. Pacific time across the next couple of weeks to watch like France versus Switzerland. You know, like feed me. First of all, feed me.

Secondly, I had this take on our program last week that I thought there'd be some mailing it in before the Olympic break. And I just want to, you know, as an error and omissions file for us, the Florida Panthers and the Tampa Bay Lightning, and specifically Brandon Hagel and Matthew Kachuk, absolutely hocking them at one another, you know, minutes before they boarded a flight to Milan respectively. Uh, proved me wrong.

Like, I got to own that. Sometimes you got to just tap your chest twice and say, my bad. And thank you to the Panthers and Lightning for delivering legit shenanigans and, you know, jerk puck pyrotechnics to us. Uh, true jester maxing from those sides right before the Olympic break. Uh, I was wrong and thank God I was. because that was one of the funniest, what, seven, eight minutes of broadcast hockey television all season, the referee reading the list and getting like eight things wrong as they went because there were so many penalties.

Paul Maurice just walking off and disgust after he got tossed from the game. I mean, everything about that was fantastic. And that does set up, you know, a really interesting dynamic. I think two of the teams that we'll be talking about in depth as we sort of recap the hierarchy in the Eastern Conference. You know, with the Panthers sort of probably being a short shrift discussion toward the end of this episode and yet still having championship ceiling, right? It's a really funny dynamic where they're in real trouble. They're unlikely to make the playoffs from this juncture.

And yet we all know that if they do slide in, they can win it all. Like they have that championship ceiling and it just might not matter because of how things have unfolded for them, especially since Christmas. I mean, whenever those two teams meet, they always deliver in some capacity. And unfortunately, I believe they don't have any games left on the rest of this season's schedule. But that one was particularly entertaining. A lot of guys obviously on both sides were missing. And yet the fire was still there.

And as soon as the lightning went up by a handful of goals, you could see it escalating. And the lightning just, I mean, they mugged the Panthers in that one. Fray mugged them. I loved. I mean, it was so good. The Hagle-Kachukukovit was obviously great. we also loved, you know, JJ Mosier, for whatever reason,

just would not let Forreling go. And you can tell that Forzling is the ultimate gentleman in the NHL. And he was like, I'm going to give you like 10 free shots. Please stop this. I'll allow you to walk away preserving your honor. And then at some point, he just decided to let all hell break loose.

And even when they were on the ice, like he was just like prison yard style, just getting after it. And once the damn broke, it wouldn't stop, right? I mean, that's the, but yeah, that was true. like the Yakuza guy and the Simpsons who hasn't done anything cool yet,

like from Forzling. I loved every minute of it. And good on those teams. Like, you know, I think the Panthers have always had a little bit of this in terms of understanding the showmanship element, right? I think both of those teams are comfortable leaning into being this sunbelt version of avalanche redwings for this generation.

And I think that's fun. But the lightning across the last month with the goalie fight, in the outdoor game with what we saw there. And guys like Hegel doing it right before the Olympics. I mean, it just feels like they get it, you know, and not just that they get it as being the best team in the Eastern Conference, which I think they are in which we'll talk about shortly, but also understanding that this is fun, this is entertainment.

And some of the quotes coming out of those teams show that this is very much intentional, very much an understanding that there's a rivalry here, and being the premier rivalry in the NHM. requires, like, there's an obligation to put on that show, to live up to it. And those teams take it seriously and thank God for us, they do, because it is must watch. All right. So let's get into it. Last week, we did the Bear versus Bull case for every Western Conference contender.

And as we always do when you and I get together, we got so deep in the weeds that we realized we wouldn't be able to go through the full league in one show. So we decided to split them up. And we're going to do the Eastern Conference version today and go through all the teams that are, certainly in the playoffs, but also have Stanley Cup aspirations, break down all their cases. And let's start with the lighting, who are at the top. Now, they started the season, if you remember, it feels like another lifetime ago now, but they were one, four, and two. And I remember at the time expressing concern about the viewings I was getting from them, where I thought they, you know, weren't playing at a high enough pace. I thought the foot speed on the blue line was very exploitable

on a big issue. And then they lose headman Chernak and McDonough for an extended period of time, bump Moser and radish up to the top pair insert Charlotte or a Dastu get some Max Crozier and Declan Carlisle in there and all of a sudden everything just comes together and they've been on an absolute tear like they had this one stretch at the start of December where I believe they went two six and one

and that was really they just got Ilya Sorokened three times in that mix and probably deserved better results but sandwiching that they had a 15 and 3 stretch and then now they're currently on 19 1-1 and 1 just ripping through the entire league leading into Olympic break in those last 21 games 88 goals for which is first in the league 39 goals or 49 goals against which is also first there are only two losses where one game on the road in st louis where they lost in a shootout and they outshot the blues 36 to 21 and then the second leg of a back-to-back in columbus where

they had their backup goalie and net and gave up a couple empty night goals late everything's humming for them right now right i just said on both sides it's They're clearly the best team in the East, arguably have been the best team in the league for a good period of the season right now. And I want to frame it through this and ask you a question right off the top. Do you think that as we think about like the upcoming road through the playoffs and the respective conferences, that the lightning should be considered more likely to represent their conference in the Stanley Cup final than the abs coming out of the West just because of I think how. And we're going to talk about the hurricanes. I'm very high on them as well, but they won't have to play them until a conference final.

And so theoretically, their path to get there is going to be more manageable, I think, and easier and less filled with landmines. Whereas the abs, if they avoid Utah, they're probably going to have an easier round one. But then they're going to have to play whoever wins Minnesota versus Dallas. And that's going to be a really tricky round two series for them. And then, you know, if the Oilers do what they've done the past couple of years, potentially facing them in the West final, I think it's kind of a. a toss up right now, but I think I lean slightly towards the lightning being a heavier favorite in their conference right now than the abs are in the West. I think that's right.

I think that's fair. I think the only hole that I can poke in the Tampa Bay profile because they're elite on both sides of special teams. I mean, the power play hasn't been super elite in terms of results. But at the end of the day, if you take a penalty and Nikita Kuturov's coming out, you're terrified and you should be. I think the overall numbers don't reflect the level of threat to their power play.

Their penalty kill is, for me anyway, again, it's only top five, but whenever you've got Sorrelli and Gensel jumping out over the boards, I mean, not only are they, what, 85% likely to kill off the penalty, but they can do real damage against you. We know how much that that can matter in swinging various playoff games. They've got the experience. On and on. As a team, they still don't generate a ton of shots. and that hasn't gotten better even as their team level sort of has come up, right? Across the last six weeks, like as they've got some of those de-healthier, right? This is not like a product of just what we're talking about that they dealt with in November and December,

which ultimately probably served them well, right? Because Moser became this two-way beast and radish became Baldiore and, you know, Dominic James and on and on, right? Like they found some answers while they were. staying afloat that I think will make them more dangerous down the stretch. But even as they've begun to filter guys into the lineup and gotten hot since Christmas, I still worry a little bit that they play a little too low event five on five. And that at the pointy ends a playoff series, when the whistles get ritualistically swallowed,

you know, do they have answers? Are they creating at a high enough level that environment where they're more likely to get the next shot? you know, and the next quality look. And I still don't know, right? That's my only issue is I don't know that they profile that way. I still think Carolina, for example, has that higher gear than them. And we know and our right to be skeptical of Carolina's ability to translate that into results in the playoffs.

We also know that Tampa Bay has more high-end skill. They've done it before. All of that's fair. Also, of course, the Vasselowski versus Bussie comp is not flattering for the hurricanes. as great a story as that's been. So, I mean, I look at Tampa Bay and do see the best team in the East on a true talent basis. And I want to note that prominently, even as I'm sort of highlighting the one significant issue

that they profile-wise anyway, leave me a bit cool, which is five-on-five shot generation. But I think it's an important one because I fundamentally think that's the best measure of a team's ability to hit a top gear, right? It's like they're killing it, but they're killing it Greg Maddox style. They're not throwing 102 miles per hour on the radar gun. And I just think that's worth prominently noting as we frame this discussion. That's fair. I guess I'd argue there is a level of efficiency they can reach,

especially with Goudreau and their top players that maybe volume teams just can't really live up to. And they're playing balanced minutes, right? I mean, that's another part of this. does it look different if, you know, Kuturov's playing two more minutes a game the way Nathan McKinnon is, right? I mean, or five on five anyway, right? Like Kutrov's averaging 14 and a half minutes, less than 14 and a half minutes per game. You know, Brandon Higel, five on five. Yes. You could, you could ramp up that and you will ramp up that come the playoffs. And we talk about that impact for Edmonton, right? I mean, even as the lightning have dealt with injuries,

I think they've been playing long game in terms of their deployment. So, there is probably another gear here. And I think that for sure is the right qualifier in addition to the efficiency thing. The Kuturov thing, by the way, I mean, he's the most efficient five-on-five point producer in the league. It's not just the puppet master five-on-four stuff that he's doing. Right now, you know, he's got a higher points per 60 than McKinnon, which is unthinkable, given what we saw from McKinnon in the first four months of the season. I mean, you're seeing similar things from Hellebuck, or sorry, from Hegel. I've got the Olympics on the mind.

And then obviously we know that Jake Gensel, when the chips are down, is just about the most unguardable presence in hockey for whatever reason. It's really a remarkable thing that he's able to do. Well, during this 21 game stretch where they went 19-1-1, Kutrov is 49 points.

And he's clawed to within five points of McDavid for the scoring race. And he's done it in seven fewer games played. It puts him on an 82 game pace of 146. which was top the 144 or whatever he had a couple years ago when he finished with 100 assists. And we'll talk more about the canes in a second here,

but the two teams are tied for first in the east right now. Now the lightning, have two games in hand on them, but they also have two more head-to-head matchups. And so as we think about a potential conference final meeting between these two, it's going to be interesting. You mentioned the power play earlier. And I do wonder about that as well,

because if you stack up all of their metrics across the board via various game states, their top five and everything except for the power play where they're 12 at this point I believe and that's up from where it was for a lot of the year because they during this stretch they've kind of turned up the dial there as well and you know we think about them over the years the way they cook with kutraub on the half wall everything was kind of designed towards getting the puck into the middle of the ice for that brayden point one timer and he's missed so much time even when he was available he wasn't playing up to his usual level and so I think it's quite a testament to

the coaching staff, but I think in this particular case, Kuturav, that he was able to on the fly kind of reprogram how he's going to pick apart opposing PKs and he realized he's got this shiny new toy in Baldiore where he's just absolutely destroying the puck right now with all those 90 plus mile per hour slap shots. And so everything's designed now towards just teeing it up and basically he may as well be walking over towards him

and just like placing the puck perfectly where you can get the most velocity on it. And he's just going off doing that. and they've really taken off. Like you look at the P.P.1 splits for them when Hedman was there at the top of the end of the start of the year versus recently with Radish. And it's more reflective of the top five power play. And so if that's going to be the case for them, and I think it's a reasonable expectation

moving forward, then that makes them even scarier and probably alleviates a little bit of those concerns in terms of the shot volume 515. I know that it's not a concern for the people listening to the PDO cast, but if this was any other program, like if we were talking on my program, Kinnucks Talk, for example, I'd want to be very specific that Baldiore is radish, right? Because it does sound like we're talking about like some six Slovakian defender named Baldiore. And I just want to clarify, we're talking about radish. We are. And he rocks. He's such a throwback. He's amazing. He's playing like a mid-2000s number one defenseman. And I think that's so cool in a league where like everyone

is kind of cookie cutter for the most part in terms of like what teams are trying to do, how players are cooking offensively. He's turning back to die. and doing it in such a cool way. And, you know, there's something to that, right? When everyone zags, you zig, right? The slap shot is dead for everyone but Tampa Bay, right? This team that's been ahead of so many different things. And then we should note, too, I mean, the contract decision facing the lightning

with Radish, right? And by the way, the contract decision facing Radish in his camp coming off of a year in which, I mean, he's going to have a truly crooked. hockey card stat line. Like his box, his box car stats are going to be He's going to score like 25 goals. How do you value him?

I mean, how do you even value him as an unrestricted free agent? It's baffling to me. I don't know that we have a comp from the last 20 years in terms of just this sort of scoring explosion from a very low baseline. Like that's,

that's going to be a fascinating story to track and monitor. Well, we saw this with Sam Malinski and the abs. and obviously he doesn't have the leverage, I think, from a scoring perspective the way Radish does, although he's a couple years younger and has been this level of productive for a couple years now. So I think like he would have commanded quite a bit on the market and he wound up taking that four-year deal with the abs that pays him probably less than he could have gotten from a San Jose or Anaheim come on restricted free agency. But it gave him like a no trade clause for the first couple years so he knows he's going to stay.

And he'll be able to probably cash in again. Now, Radish is a couple years older, so maybe this is probably his one true opportunity to really make generational wealth and set himself up for life. But I imagine they're going to find a nice middle ground there. We see the lightning do this over and over again. And so I'm not worried about that for them. I think they should just enjoy it the rest of the way and deal with it this summer when they're going to have the cap space to pay him whatever he wants if they choose to do that. Yeah, and I think it's less about like the long-term concern for the lightning of fitting him in so much is just such a dramatic glow-up that from a business of hockey perspective, it's a fascinating story for us to track because I truly, you know, usually it's pretty easy to look into historical comps and have like a decent sense of sort of a range within which a player will fall.

And I mean, Radish is producing like a $12 million defenseman having been, you know, a fringe NHLer for every season until this year. It's just such a wild come up, a glow up for him. And it's been a blast watch. that fit on the power play is insane. I am very curious to see what they do approaching the trade deadline because, you know, I've talked on the show. I wish they were more aggressive in securing or Tammy Panarin before he ultimately got traded to the Kings. And I understand some of the long-term concern given the age and the fact that like, you know, especially I'm sure they view guys like Connor geeky and Sam O'Reilly is like these guys that down the line, they're going to be able to plug in

and on ELCs for a cost-effective reasons, get contraband. from them and kind of keep this cycle going during this era of Kuturab and this core's shelf life. Yet, on the one hand, like, they've proven that they're better than any organization at developing contributors out of guys who weren't heralded top prospects before. And also, they have all this cap space where they have 15 or 16 million to play with this summer. And I would have wished, I would have loved to just see them go all in and even retain Panarin

on a two, three year deal the way L.A. did because just imagining. him on the other side to ramp up that powerplay even more, where they use Bjork Strand because of that handedness as the right shot, and he's the only guy in this roster up front other than point that shoots right-handed, essentially. I think they could be a bit more efficient there and really just pick their teeth with the opposition, but they chose not to do so. They still have a couple buttons to press, and I'm curious because there is a bit of a logjam as well. Now that everyone's getting healthier, especially on the blue line, I think that's a more immediate question for me. It's like, we've seen Hedman come back and McDonough.

Dustu's been out, so it hasn't been an issue. But with the way he's played, I think he clearly is deserving of being in this lineup coming into the postseason. And then even guys like Crozier and Carlisle, I think, have totally looked apart of fitting in. And so now they're going to have too many guys. I do wonder if they're just going to go,

John Cooper style 11 and 7, just to make sure they get as many of those guys in, and then just like use two forwards in the fourth line and sprinkle in Gutcherob and Hegel with them for the occasional shift. a couple other notes. I mean, the Finley thing too is just a canary in the coal mine in terms of managing a 23-man roster. Not that Finley's more than a fourth-line center and not that he even has top-nine upside, but he makes less than league minimum the next two years.

He's 23. He's 6'5. He's a right-handed center. I mean, that's an asset. And they just sort of had to manage their books a certain way, their 23-man roster a certain way and end up losing him for, you know, no return. That's the sorts of decisions that, you know, maybe not at that level of drama, but that's the sorts of decisions that they're going to navigate because they've stumbled

into and not stumbled into, but they found so many answers through a injury, you know, depleted portion of their season that there actually are headaches that come with it, or at least things to manage. And I think we're already beginning to see this sort of seems there. A couple final notes on this and then let's get to the hurricanes. One, I wanted to shout out that Gord Gergenson's Holmberg line. If you tune into a lightning game at home,

Cooper is just using them as the matchup line against the other team's best forwards and they're just frustrating the living hell out of them, just blanketing them, making sure nothing happens for like the 12 or 13 minutes they play against them. Then the other is, with Point and Sorrelli out leading into the break, I love the Cooper just said, you know what, I'm just going to put all my best guys together

with what I got. And he just played Hagel, Gensel, and Kuturov together, and it was as fun as you'd imagine. So, you know, for the lightning, I do think when I raised the question of the path through the east, we've seen them have good regular seasons the past couple years and then bump into the Panthers and just, we're reminded that there's kind of levels to this. I think the Panthers were so uniquely positioned to essentially take away Kuturov as the primary threat because they could just throw Forslaiang and Barkov on him. And the Lightning just didn't have a lot of answers beyond that.

This Lightning team does seem deeper to me with guys who can make plays. And also the fact that the- More mobile on the back end. And, yes. And the fact- The Panthers have kind of bowed out of the conversation, I think, really opens the door for them. Because I still view them as the one team, regardless of how Thursday's game played out, that at full health could frustrate them defensively.

And Carolina's going to be able to do some of that, but not as efficiently as Florida did the past two postseason. So it's lining up pretty nicely for them, I think. Yeah. And I just think they're better. positioned with what they're getting out of Moser defensively, certainly with the emergence of guys like Dasstu, even if he is a bit high event. Maybe he's not going to keep getting those opportunities as this team gets healthier. But, you know, Carlisle, I think fits into that too. I think

they're, I just think they're more mobile on the back and then they have been in previous seasons. And I think that's going to be key to handling some of those stress hockey teams that I think have gotten to them the last couple of years as their blue lines gotten a little bit longer in the tooth. The Carolina Hurricanes, who if you look at the market right now for the Stanley Cup odds, are the third team behind Colorado and Tampa. And I think that's right not only because of how high their floor is, but also if you look at the respective path, like in the metro, they seem pretty what nicely set up to make

a third conference final in the past four years. I also think that we've become a bit dissentious. ties by the regular season success of the hurricanes because of what's unfolded in the playoffs and sort of taken for granted in the fact that this team has 78 points in 57 games and is tied with Tampa for first in the east despite all the injuries in the blue line early on and then the fact that it feels like they haven't even really hit their final form yet right whether that's going to be a big trade leading up to the deadline to add another impactful game breaker or just utilizing their guys to a greater extent and really optimizing the lines like it feels

like they're kind of not going through the motions, but the system they play with and the structure allows them to like go into every game and just be like, all right, if we just play our game this way, we're probably going to win more often than not. And they've done that essentially almost sleepwalking their way to being first in their division and tied for first in the east.

And I think that's no small feat given how impressive an accomplishment that is and how difficult it would be for pretty much any other organization to pull that off. Yeah. The Carolina Hurricanes are a machine. Gene. And, you know, they're doing it with out high-end goaltending, right? I mean, they're getting exceptional performances. Don't get me wrong. But I mean, this is a team that doesn't need a single bounce ever at any end of the rank to manufacture a 720 point percentage. And that's ludicrous. Like, over small samples, over big samples, they don't need to finish at a high clip. They don't

need exceptional goaltending at a high clip. They're just going to keep grinding out points and wins because of the way they tilt the ice. And I think you're right. That does give them a floor. And when it comes to the ceiling, it's, you know, it's still there. They're getting, you know, Svetnikov's performing really well in terms of producing offense five on five. It's been nice to see him bounce back as a producer. Obviously, what you're getting from Seth Jarvis, both in terms of that sky high shot rate,

and his finishing game and the way that he's able to counter off the rush, you know, I think is exceptional. I think that has given them this high end. If they can get bounces in their favor, if they can be a little bit more efficient, if, you know, they can get the goaltending that they've got to this point, you know, I mean, or better. I mean, they're going to need better goaltending than they've got to this point,

to be totally honest with you, even though it's been totally fine with the way they defend. You know, they still have as high a ceiling as anybody in my mind. my mind, to be totally honest with you, it's just that the high-end talent thing, I'm still waiting for that moment where the like stall Martinuk minutes are occupied by guys who are a bigger threat to finish their chances. The Eler's dynamic, I think, is an important one. I still think there's a world where he is the game breaker they need. I do think we're seeing, especially since Christmas, him figure out how to do more of that. You know, it's not that different for

from what Miko Ranton can do in terms of, you know, the, the, um, sort of regroup yourself in the neutral zone, pick your spot and launch an exceptional perimeter wrist shot. I mean, that's what Rantin does to break games. And Eelers is one of those guys who can create in that manner. I do think he's figuring out more ways of playing his game within the, the stress hockey rod Brindamore style. And I think you've seen that in evidence the last six weeks.

When it, when it works, it looks unbelievable. So we'll see. I think there's reasons to believe that this could be a different version of the Carolina Hurricanes. And yet, you know, I'd still like to see them add another real difference maker, like another guy with really high offensive ceiling to this lineup, especially with the opportunity that looms ahead of them, you know, with what's happened to the Florida Panthers, right? So, yeah, I mean, Caroline is fascinating to me just because at some point, the way they tilt

the ice has to matter. Like at some point being able to control games like this, I think, you know, will eventually matter for them in terms of breaking through in the playoffs and making a cup final. And this year feels like as good a chance as they've ever had. Yeah. On the goaltending front, I think it's actually been fine if you remove the, the Freddie Anderson performances for the most part. Sure. And it's quite a, quite telling about the fact that like the one good performance he's had from a results perspective, pretty much all year, was a 960% percentage against the, uh, this year's version of the New Jersey Devils. Right.

Because that's what they do to opposing goalies. But they're 23, 3 and 1 in Brennan Bussie's game. And I know the, the volume they give up is very restricted because they always just have the puck and they don't let you spend time in their own zone. But you look underneath the hood and I know Woodley talks about this a lot. Like they're still one of the worst rush defenses in the league, partly because of their system. because how high they got had the guys up in the ice. And if they have a turnover near the blue line,

they don't have guys back. Um, they give up quite a bit in the inner slot still. And I think like the degree of difficulty, especially with like you're not getting some of those easy looks very often because they block everything. And so if you're their goalie, you haven't faced a shot in 12 minutes of action. And then all of a sudden you have to make a two on one going lateral save.

It's difficult. I think Bussie's been phenomenal now, obviously with the track record. I think what that looks like in the postseason is fair to wonder. about the scoring, though, for me, let's get into this, because on the one hand, I think the skepticism would be you look at the individual scoring and Aho's at a point per game. As you mentioned, Svetchenikov has been really good and very dynamic in watching them

the past couple weeks and has really turned it on 5-on-5 after a slow start. Eler's on pace for around 60 points. Jarvis and Costis bear on a point per game level would be higher because they've missed time. They're lower amongst the scoring leaders. but then you get into essentially that second wave of forwards and the Jackson Blake, Taylor Hall, Logan Stankovins of the world for them are all kind of around the 40 to 50 point pace. And so I think people will look at that and be like, this isn't in line with my expectation of what a Stanley Cup winning team or contending team is going to look like.

I do think we're seeing more signs under the hood in terms of team offense, though, that would make me bullish about it. And I've been as skeptical as anyone of this team's approach offensively over the years. I would say more skeptical than most people. I would say, yeah, leading the charge. And I think proven right over time. There are rush chances. Only the abs generate more than them this year.

And they were outside the top 10 last year. So that's good. Obviously, Nikola Eelers gives them that shot of adrenaline and ability to, after doing nothing for two and a half periods, just come out and break the game open with a shift or two. And that's a huge piece that they didn't have before. And then the other is, if you look at their, shot charts in terms of where they generate stuff. They're always like really good in terms of those shots around the neck because they get point

shots and then rebounds and sort of stat pad that way. But something that was missing for them was that medium range shot in the middle, especially like between the dots. And they just didn't have guys who could get there consistently. And they're getting more of those looks this year as well. And those are probably going to be the ones that are going to lead to goals for them in the playoffs because if you're shooting against Vasilevsky and tight, he just takes up the entire net and you're not going to be able to lift it against them.

And so I think all those things put together, there's still work to do. But I'm more encouraged, I think, than I was in the past that this could get over the top and turn some of that volume into efficiency. And so I think there's stuff like there. I mean, honestly, Shane Gosses bear probably deserves. We did that like Nate Schmidt career arc retrospective a couple weeks ago. He probably deserves one. Yeah, he does.

He's been unbelievable this year. He's 38 points in 40 games. It is age 33 season. And a guy that bounced around a lot and is just absolutely crushing it. in his assignments this year. And so, I don't know, do you have anything, any other notes on their offense? Or are we kind of aligned here for the most part? And we need to see what they do at the deadline before we make a final conclusion on it.

I think we're completely aligned. I think they can get more out of Stankovin and Jackson Blake to once, you know, at any point. Like at any point, you're not going to be surprised if either of those guys goes point per game for a 10 to 20 game stretch. And that could even happen in the playoffs given the fact that both guys have some dog them regardless of what their listed height and weight looks like on NHL.com. The only thing

I'd add is just that the Colorado Avalanche exist in a totally different world than everyone else in terms of five on five offense. They're on a different planet than the rest of the league. But basically everyone else is pretty compressed. So the hurricanes are generating

goals, like goals. I'm not talking shots. Goals. At like the 11th best rate, five on five, which doesn't seem exceptional. But, you know, other than Colorado, Tampa, and then Utah, right, which kind of are the three teams that are legitimately a couple standard deviations outside the mean, you know, the Carolina Hurricanes are manufacturing goals at 96% of the rate of the fourth best team. Like, it's not a meaningful difference.

They could end up passing that team because it's the Boston Bruins. It's not like that team's loaded with talent that makes. sense why they're producing a high-end offensive results. I don't think, like, I'm not going into the playoffs being like, man, if only Carolina could manufacture goals like Boston. Like, no world in which I'm even thinking about that. So, you know, I just think this team has the ceiling to perform and manufacture offense, like a top five offense in the league.

I don't think that's even a hot take at this point. And when you look at all the various reasons why they could hit that ceiling, they have so many outs in-house, including things like little things like, you know, not just Blake and Stankovin beginning to produce more, but things like Nikolai Eelers, who's clearly looked better and more integrated into their attack the last six weeks than he did the first three months. So, yeah, I'm pretty bullish on this version of the hurricanes. I'd still like to see an addition, but I think they've put themselves in a spot where we should be talking about them somewhat differently from a like they're not faded i don't think

to you know uh just like absolutely make a goaltender look great and put him to the top of the cons my futures market in a six or seven game series this spring yeah if we get to the postseason and they're still playing eelers with stall and martinook i'll be worried because i think that's certainly not the way especially from a zone start perspective to maximize his impact i will say for the time being. I do like this subplot. And we saw Euler's do this in Winnipeg with a guy like Nevesnikov, for example, where he just seems like he's in a personal mission right now to get Jordan Stahl to 20 plus goals for the first time in a decade. And he's well on his way to where it's doing so. And they've also used Stahl, interestingly, on PP1 to win draws. And he's

winning like 70% of them off the hop. And I think that's allowing them to get more quickly into their set plays and the power play has been more efficient as well. And, you know, the big sort of monkey wrench here for everyone really in the East is that they just have so many more means to dramatically improve this team in season, right? Because they have the cap space and they don't need any retention or sending out salary. They have all the draft capital and prospects and we've seen them swing big the past couple of deadlines. And so they didn't get Panarin here. But I am curious, I imagine Eric Tulski and staff will be working endlessly between now and March 6th to add one more piece here to kind of move the pendulum even further in their favor. So yeah, I'm excited to see

what that is. All right, Tom, let's take our break here. And then we come back. We will jump right back in and keep doing our Eastern Conference. Bear versus both cases. You're listening to the Hockey P.D.O.cast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. All right. We're back here in the Hockey-Ocast, joined by Thomas Transfer, a Sunday special. Tom, we've done the lightning and the hurricanes. I think predictably, taking a long time going through those two,

but they stand head and shoulders above everyone else in my opinion in this conference and deserved it. Let's get to arguably the most fun team, though, here that we're going to talk about. And that's our Buffalo Sabers, who have about an 88% playoff probability right now according to HockeyStats.com and seem poised to break that 14 year

playoff drought. And I was thinking about this. I started in this industry in 2011-12, I believe. And so professionally I have never gotten to cover a Buffalo Sabres playoff series. And especially with how this team looks and how many of the players and parts we love, I'm very excited

about the idea of doing so. They've gone 21, one of five and two since turning their season around on December 9th. Only the lightning have been better in that time. The only teams with more regulation wins this year are the aves, lightning, and stars. And I'm curious for your take on this. In thinking about the differences between this year's version and why I'm bullish on them, compared to the ones from the previous three years, let's say, that showed flashes and got us excited and scored a bunch of goals,

is this team has the ability to toggle between different avenues for creating offense, right? those previous versions were so rush-based and just tried to open games up into a track meet and they'd bump into certain opponents that were kind of less aggressive and would just line up in the neutral zone and provide roadblocks and they wouldn't really have any sort of problem-solving skills

to get through that and they get bogged down and wind up losing. We've seen them recently in certain games, I think they played the Kings recently at home. They played in Florida where these teams pose different challenges. challenges defensively and they were able to navigate them within the game against Florida. Like they came out red hot. They were like, we need these two points. They were just forechecking

the living daylights out of them, overwhelming them. And then once Buffalo settled in, they realized that this was a team that they could attack off the rush and burn them because of how aggressive they were. And so they did that. Then they played a game against, I forget who, I guess it was the LA game where like they're less aggressive, so they're sitting back. And so they realized they would dump it in and then get to work on the for a chicken grind out cycle shifts and create offense that way and they just have so many different resources i think now for for winning games they didn't have previously and that's going to bode well for them if they get into a playoff setting and have to play different types of teams yeah i and i also just think the i so i think you're right

there there's an adaptability to their game now that has made them more multisputable dimensional, right, has, as I think made them, in my mind anyway, less of a, well, they can sort of show up with this incredible amount of juice and skate you off the ice. They can actually find answers. And I think the fundamental reason for it is actually really simple. And I just think it's that they go really deep in terms of having personnel. Like, I don't think it's rocket science when you, when you think about what, for example, Bowen Byram and Owen Power have become this season. And I would add, Rasmus Dahlin looks to me to have taken another step toward being a capital D dude, right? Up there with Zach Werenski as a competitor for the

best outright defenseman in the Eastern Conference in my mind. You know, I think you're seeing that blue line, for example, you know, if you're coming at teams with three top paracalibre defensemen, that becomes an extraordinarily difficult thing to deal with. Then you add Samuelson and Kesslerang who hasn't played as well, but nonetheless, like two other guys that I feel very comfortable saying our second pair caliber defensemen. And for any Sabres fans who are mad about that assessment of Samuelson, just remember how you were talking about him 12 months ago before. How many shot attempts from Samuelson have resulted in goals this year, Dim? Is it up to 20 yet? I think seemingly all of them. Yeah, seemingly all of them. So I'm just saying I'm not going to

vacillate that wildly on Samuelson. I think he's a top four defenseman and an awesome compliment for Dahlene and he's having a great season, but I think we got to be careful about overreacting to what's clearly a percentage driven, like an efficiency driven mirage of offense from him this season. And then up front,

you know, I mean, the Tage Thompson thing, I do just want to note here, he's the NHL's best five-on-five goal score. He is, yeah. Period. Like, period.

There's no, he's supplant, supplanted Austin Matthews, who I thought was this generation's Alex Ovechkin three years ago, he is supplanted him. He is the best single five-on-five goal scorer on the planet. And that obviously gives you a top end, but it's more about, in my mind, anyway, the fact that you can go nine or ten forwards deep here. And all of them are top nine guys at least. And some of those guys, Ostland and Hellenius, right?

Have, I think, sealing to be more than that as they sort of get their feet under them. But, you know, Josh Don, I think, is playing for sure like a top six guy. And arguably, in terms of his two-way results, like a top-line guy,

Alex Tux still got it. Zach Benson is a legitimate top-line impact guy from a two-way perspective. I think Josh Norris, when he's in the lineup, you know, which is a huge qualifier here, you know, he's defensively conscientious and skilled, incredibly skilled. I think Ryan McLeod is a clear top nine caliber guy. Jason Zucker, not my favorite player on the team, still a clear top nine caliber guy.

And then Peyton Krebs, I think, has become, at least defensively. There's still a ton of offensive touches off his stick that drive me nuts. But is clearly a top nine caliber two-way. center at this point. You know, I'm not I'm not a big Jack Hughes guy, but at least offensively he can contribute at that level

too. So there's still spots to upgrade in this lineup, but that's just an overwhelming like that is what we mean when we talk about the sort of critical mass of talent that you sometimes need to pull yourself out of the NHL seller and they've got it. And I

think that's going to make them a match, sorry, it's making them right now a matchup nightmare for everybody they face and it's going to continue to provided that they stay healthy and have nine plus you know that probably seven plus top six caliber forwards probably 10 top nine caliber forwards and they're they're just at an area of surplus everywhere that matters all over their lineup i know people are upset with jack hughes right now but i cannot believe that you're talking about jack wade and you called him jack hewes back accident. Did I? Oh my goodness. You really do have Olympics on the mind. I do. I'm sorry.

To that point. Well, and also, also, don't forget, I cover the Canucks. So Jack Quinn, Jack Hughes. Like, that's especially difficult for, for me. Everyone is a Hughes. Their 28, 10, and 4 was Zach Benson in the lineup and 4, 9 and 2 without. And I do think, you know, to your point about the depth and how that has helped. Yeah. I think in particular, him and Don have really unlocked that extra dimension because they don't take away stuff the rush and even add to it potentially, but then give you this extra path towards creating offense with the puck battle wins, stuff down low, retrieval, setups, all that. And so that's been huge. There are a couple areas I think they could stand to improve and the losses recently against

the haves and the penguins, I think really highlighted that. The first is the third pair. And don't you dare say they need an Ian Cole type here. But you know that I'm right. Yeah, I mean, listen, they've really during this stretch been only using four defensemen functionally. And part of that is Kesselring really has struggled trying to come back and acclimate himself here. And whenever they're playing like a Bryson or something, it's a disaster in those minutes. And so they just go away from it early on. And I think that's asking too much of these four guys because while they've been performing admirably and look awesome, this team relies on their defensemen to be so engaged and involved offensively.

And that requires them to cover so much ground. And so playing them 25 minutes every night is. just too tall of a task, I think, moving forward, so they're going to need to address that. The fourth line, if we're talking about playoffs, like Greenway before he got hurt, Malenstein, Kozac, they've been getting absolutely cratered. And I think improving up front, higher in the lineup, and then getting a bump a guy like Krebs down into that role, would I think alleviate some of those offensive concerns you had while just improving the underlying numbers for that group. And then the power play. For me, you mentioned that

Tage Thompson is the best five-on-five goal score in the league. and I agree, he is not on the power play. And this has been the case for a while now. And I think part of it is structural because if you watch them, they typically just keep him at that flank. They keep Dahlian on the point. And they just funnel everything through shots from those guys. And so if you're an opposing PK preparing for a Sabres game,

it's pretty easy to game plan against. You know where the shots are coming from. And so I'd like to see them move him around more and just kind of manufactured different types of looks for him. We saw that a bit recently. I hope they keep doing that and use the break. to find ways to figure that out because they actually look pretty dangerous

when they work the puck down low and then Dohn and Zucker are freelancing all of a sudden behind the net and getting slot opportunities so I feel like that's the way to go for them and then Josh Norris you mentioned I think at this point unfortunately it's foolish to rely on him being available

hopefully he is I feel like it would be found money especially if you're thinking about a extended playoff run the idea of him holding up there would be a tough thing to kind of stake your claim on and be like well, we need this to happen to be successful. And so I really hope that drives some urgency to make a move.

And they have the means because even if they keep tuck as their own rental essentially and don't plan to sign them, whether it's like some of these guys like a Quinn or Rosean, obviously their draft picks moving forward, smart organizations are good at figuring out internally who are keepers and who are not and then acting decisively before the rest of the league figures that out. And if the sabers and Yarmoket-Kliddin can do that, I think they're set up really nicely to keep all the good parts here and then build around that. And so I'd love to see that between now and the deadline for them. Yeah, it's effectively using, I mean, using Roseanne as like a second Savoy. That's kind of how I think about it, right? They built up this massive surplus of skilled

forwards over the past few years where the results didn't translate, but that's catnip for some of these teams that are rebuilding and need an injection of skill and Rosanne still has the American League scoring stats and the perfect profile, but also, you know, with the way that this Sabres team is trending and how young they are and how many players fit that sort of template that are just ahead of him, right? Just ahead of him on the depth chart. You know, even if you do end up dealing Roseanne to purchase, right, as like a stand-in for using a first-round pick, you still have Kulik, right? You still have Benson. I mean, you still have players that fit that ilk. So that to me is the sort of move I'd like to see them make. And, and you know what? I really think at the end of the

day, dealing a guy with that sort of profile, ideally for center help, but if that fails too, for maybe something like, I don't know, an Ian Cole type might be, you know, something that could pay dividends for them. Certainly. You didn't react at all. I really, I really, I really. really was hoping that would upset you more. No, no, it's fine. Listen, I've been thinking long and hard about just becoming a Buffalo Sabres beat reporter so that we could just do full shows on this, but we got to cover the rest of the league. So let's get to the Habs, who are sixth in the league in point percentage with one of,

if not the youngest roster in the league, which I think is incredibly exciting. Only Colorado and Tampa have scored more goals than them this year. So that's clearly their path towards overwhelming opponents. I've been talking about this recently. The past four games, essentially, they started putting Dobson and Hudson together a 5-1-5, and they had played like 190 minutes total together, 50 of those who've come in these past four games,

and the haves are up 6-1 in that time. And the idea that, like, as we see top teams in the league and we talk about weak link or a strong link come the postseason, the idea that you can send those guys out there, and regardless of who you're playing, against all of a sudden you're not only winning those minutes, but kind of destroying the game plan for the opposition where now they're having to spend all their time and energy worrying about how they can slow that down and then making it easier for some of their depth guys.

I do feel like that's probably the most logical path they should explore the rest of the season and I hope they keep steering ahead direction because they're so fun together. And yeah, I think that that's kind of where I'm at with them where I love watching them play. I'm very excited. Obviously, it's a work in progress in terms of the stuff around. top of this roster, not only through internal development, but also using the fact that everyone is locked up essentially long term that allows this front office to build around these guys with the cap going up the next couple years. It seems like that's where we're headed. I'm curious for

your take on where you're at with them right now and sort of the likelihood of kind of moving through the Atlantic Division and potentially, you know, getting into a round two against Tampa Bay and giving them a really hard fought scare where you can see the like the vision of what this is going to look like in a couple years when they are fully formed. I think the, first of all, I think they can give anybody in the league a scare, which is not to say that they should be or will be favored in a series against the Tampa Bay Lightning, but there is a feeling, and this is qualitative, but it's true, right? Whether you can measure it or not, it's true.

The Montreal Canadiens trailing by one in the last five minutes of a game is one of the one of the scariest things in hockey. Like it just, it feels like a matter of time every time you tune into a Habs game and they're narrowly trailing. You know they're going to get the equalizer and you're pretty confident that it's going to be Cole Cawfield who does it. It's just, he's such a fascinating player to watch too because it's the way that he attacks down low,

right, that really gives teams trouble in those stationary sort of defensive positionings once the HABs have their goalie out. You know, it's what he's able to manufacture down low that just feels special, feel so lethal. I think there's, like, I watch that HAB's second line, and I do think a little bit too much of it is on Slavkovsky defensively still. I think Demadov's improving rapidly in that spot.

I don't think we're going to be talking about him as a defensive liability in 12 months, but I think that line in general is. I don't know is Capinen going to be a long-term fit as a top six caliber center with his defensive play? Like, that to me is a hole in the lineup, but not a hole in the lineup that I think they should have urgency to address because I'd still want to give him runway to figure it out. You know, the things he does offensively, his knack for showing up at the right moment, right? I mean, he's got a little bit of that Zach Heimann complimentary digger game. and I'd love to find out if I'm the habs,

and I think they should, especially given that he's playing a premium position and doing it at an age where you don't expect him to be a defensive stopper or ace at this point in his development. Like I'd want to give him runway to figure that out. But from the perspective of their chances this year, right? I think if he's your second most used center in a playoff series against the Tampa Bay Lightning,

that's going to be difficult. That's going to be problematic for you. When I think of it, about this Habs team big picture, you know, I do think this is a really interesting next, it's less than a month, four weeks for them, because the dynamic of the LionA contract feels like it does give them a really unique buy opportunity, right? They've amassed all this exceptionally valuable asset weaponry and they've got this high AAB player who they clearly don't intend on using that effectively can act as a make weight to buy just about anything they want, right?

I mean, I think that's an opportunity that they should be bullish on. Precisely because they have so much cost certainty built around this core, but it's critical that that not be used to buy a rental, but that, you know, that money be or that sort of salary cap make weight and those assets be used to buy a long-term fit. I don't think they have their goalie of the future set yet, so some of their goaltending struggles don't concern me. Fowler's wildly impressive. That will come, right?

They're not a finished product, and they shouldn't behave like a finished product, and yet I think they have, because of the timeline of Lione's deal, this really interesting window to buy between now and the deadline that they should absolutely take advantage of. So I just look at this Habs team

and see Slavkovsky leveling up rapidly in becoming a really special two-way piece with also an offensive ceiling that I wasn't sure he had. Caulfield being one of, in my opinion, the most interesting two-way goal threats. Suzuki becoming a fringe top 10 NHL centerman. Lane Hudson is special, flat out, right?

I mean, and I don't think you can list 10 defenders. I'd rather employ than him at this point in the NHL. And I think he's got ceiling to be top five. Demadov's just scratching the surface. You go down the list. It's really remarkable how much talent and future upside they have. But I think there are limitations in their two-way game that will hold them back in the short term. And I don't know that you should worry about them.

I think the truth is that there's benefits to evaluating this group and giving them the space to improve internally that make it worth living with some of those short-term more. and Kaepinin's defensive game on your second line is sort of what I come back to as being representative of that. But I think it goes beyond that too. So buy a non-rental using the Lion A deal and some of that asset weaponry that they've built up and let the chips fall where they may. I think that's a wildly favorable spot to have landed this quickly in their sort of overall rebuilding scheme and also gives that room a reward and allows you to improve for the playoffs while keeping your eyes trained firmly on what this looks like in 2028,

when I think there's no reason to believe they won't be one of the best teams outright in the NHL. Yeah, and there was a lot of noise that they were trying to move off of line A's expiring deal leading up to the roster freeze prior to Olympics. And so I imagine we'll revisit that once the freeze lifts, but they're positioned, as you said, very well to scale up here over the next couple of years because they're going to have that to potentially work with right now in the short term, but then this summer they're going to have space and can create even more if they just go Fowler-Dobes-Net

and move the last year of Montembeau's deal and clear a couple extra million there. And I think there's obvious, particularly down the middle, like I don't need to see them make a short-sighted move to bring in a veteran center. We already saw them bring in to no for that. But the idea that, you know, you could potentially explore bumping cabin and down a little bit,

potentially just to make life a bit easier for them and have an absolute rock star line of whatever center you had playing with Slavkovsky and Demidob, especially because they've been using that line in offensive deployment with Hudson and Dobson recently, and then using Gouli and Matheson with the Suzuki line for more defensive assignments. So I think there's a lot of fun stuff to play with, and for a team that's already this young and exciting, the sky's the limit moving forward. Pittsburgh Penguins. Yeah. I'm genuinely intrigued, and I got to say at the very least, I really enjoy watching

this team play. And they're near the top of every offensive metric. and they have been all year. They're 14, 3 and 3 since the holiday break with elite 515 shares across the board. They have so many different weapons. Like Crosby's putting up points, but really that line with him, Raquel and Rust,

has been one of their least efficient 5-1-5 lines. And I think that's a testament to just how many other players are clicking for them right now. They bring in Chinokov. He's thriving with Novak and Malkin. Kindle playing with two absolute units in Brazil and Manta has been incredibly fun. And then that four-fine buzzsaw.

of Lazot, Doer, and Achari has been phenomenal. And Lazott's got the Zach Benson splits. Have you noticed this? They need Lazott so much. Okay, you can attest to this. Go back in the archives. How much time did I spend talking about Blake Lizard of last year's deadline? I was like, the lightning should acquire him.

This team should acquire them. Everyone, when everyone was making fake Penguins trades, I was like, I'm targeting Blake Lazot. Also, remember when Blake Lazot was not, like, his signing wasn't announced until Kyle Dubas spoke? Like, it was the one unreasonable. reported signing the day they signed him on July 1 and everyone was like, what? They also did that. Like everyone else had been discussed to death. It wasn't like a super active July 1, but Blake LaZotte was the totally forgotten man. I mean, he's awesome. Like, just flat out dog.

Yeah, I mean, this Penguins team's, like, they honestly, I still come back to this. They remind me stylistically a lot of the Golden Misfits team. and it's just the way they play. It's just the, you know, simple stupid hockey or smart stupid hockey where pucks just go into space in places where players can skate onto it and they win more than their share of battles because they're completely dialed. Dan Mews has them cooking. And I don't think it's rocket science why they're overachieving to that level.

They're all bought into playing that style. They're willing to, it's actually kind of high risk. and you can notice on the on the breakout where they'll try passes that aren't necessarily there, but they're supporting so well that even if it's a turnover, quote unquote, it's not a clean turnover where they can be countered on easily because there's someone else really close. They're just so compact and they're always forcing the issue. It's really impressive. And I actually find it to be a ton of fun to watch.

And then obviously what they're getting from Kindle 2A is special. given his age, right? I mean, I think he's the most advanced two-way center, you know, from, from a like play without the puck and still has offensive skill perspective that we've seen at this age since Logan Couture, something like that, right? I mean, it's, what we're seeing out of him is very rare, sort of once in a decade level, you know, two-way intelligence coming into the NHL. It's remarkable stuff. Well, and they're elite at special teams at both ends. And I think that

speaks to just how well prepared they are and what a job Dan Mews has done. And, you know, the reason why I cite that stat post-holiday break, they got like, they were struggling heading into it. They got a bit of time off for their older players. They gave him some time to kind of reset and prep and figure out

what they wanted to do. And they've taken off since then. And so now they get this three-week break to essentially do that to an even larger degree. Now, when they come back, going to jump into this all-time meat grinder of a schedule where they're going to play 19 games and 34 days. 15 of those are against playoff teams. They play Carolina three times, Colorado twice, Vegas twice. It's going to be brutal, but I'm curious to see how they approach tackling that. And really, like, this team is second in the metro right now. They're holding off the islanders.

The blue jackets are coming. But for them to be where they're at right now, considering they're one and seven in shootouts, three and five and three on three OT. And the number of, of points they left on the table early when they were blowing those games in comical fashion to the ducks and the sharks at home, I think is really impressive. Like, there's seventh the league in point percentage despite all of that. And I'm fascinated to see, speaking of the deadline, what Kyle Debus's approach is here. Because since he took over this team and really the past like year and a half or so, no GM has been more aggressive in terms of this volume-based approach of buying and selling, making all sorts of moves and seeing what sticks, and it's been a massive net positive for them in doing so.

They've cleared up a ton of financial flexibility. I think they have less than $50 million on the books for next year, and the cap's going to be 104. They have three, or sorry, five picks in the first three rounds of each of the next three drafts, and they haven't even traded any of their most desirable veterans yet. And so I think there's an interesting opportunity here for them to really buy this year and kind of reward this group and have one more nice. playoff run with Crosby, assuming they can hold up during that March schedule, and then,

depending on how it goes, revisit it in the off season and become sellers again in a thoughtful way. I don't think it necessarily needs to be one or the other. So I don't think the success this season has really, you know, derailed whatever rebuild they're doing or anything. I think it's obviously been a huge boo and you're seeing young guys contribute, but also I think it creates all these guys are even more desirable assets this summer. And so he's been very active and I imagine he, will continue to do so. And I'm fascinated to see what that looks like. Yeah. And I think, like, I think Kyle Dubus became underrated toward the tail end of his tenure in Toronto. And I think what you just outlined is why, where you kind of know as a baseline

that the Pittsburgh Penguins aren't one of those teams that's at risk of being a victim of their success this season. You know what I mean? And that level of comfort distinguishes their management group from what, 15 to 20 management groups around the NHL. And that alone is invaluable. Just the baseline competence and the confidence that you should have in that baseline confidence is, you know, rarer than it should be around the NHL. Can I bring up one quick penguin's point? And I'm curious to get your reaction to this.

Dan Mews is 13-1 to win the Jack Adams. And for my money, you know, I understand John Cooper being. the favorite. Don't get me wrong. This should be in some ways his year. He's never won it before. The injuries that they dealt with on the back end. I mean, that's been a remarkable job. But Dan Mews, 13 to 1, feels insane to me. I can't imagine, and I don't get to vote on this award, but I can't imagine voting for Lindy Ruff, who's plus 210 ahead of Dan Mews. There's no world where you can watch the Penguins and the Buffalo Sabers both play hockey and think that those respective coaching jobs tilt in Ruff's favor?

Yeah, if I had a vote, I would have voted for John Cooper just because what they've done amidst all those injuries and how connected and structured and cohesive they've been is incredible. I agree. It's Cooper's year in my opinion. I agree. I think part of it is people are still waiting for the bottom to fall out for the penguins. Like they have been all year, even when they started strong.

And how they navigate that March stretch, like if they come out of it, still second in the metro, I think we're going to see a growing center. sentiment from you use and that buzz to pick up. But you're right in terms of like playing the market and trying to be a bit perspective in terms of buying the odds while they're not in line with what they should be right now. I'm with you on that. Okay. Let's say.

Oh, last note on Dubus, friend of the podcast, Kyle Dubus, right? By the way, who was part of our summer series last off season. I was talking about this with Steve Warrior this week and I just wanted to hammer at home. Like I think exactly what you're saying there in terms of not being held captive and being a prisoner of the moment with short-term success by this team. I think that's reflective of one of the most important traits for any team builder. And that's a certain level of humility that he has in terms of evaluations. And you see that with that volume approach where he understands that he's not going to get everything right.

And you never know how guys are going to look coming in. But for the right price, everyone is worth a shot, essentially. And a lot of GMs approach it through this level of hubris of like, I know better than you. And so I'm going to plant my flag on this player or one of my pro scouts vouch for the this guy and we're all in on him succeeding with no backup plan if the guy gets hurt or struggles or doesn't fit within the way the team plays. And yeah, do us and the Penguins just don't do that.

And I think that's really impressive and he's going to bode well for them moving forward and in bringing this franchise back to where it needs to be. It's a good point. And matches in some ways like the Zito approach that led to the Panthers being what they became, you know, especially that fall of 2020 where, you know, it was Wenberg and Hinnisstrosa and Lomburg and, excuse me, the Verhege and like all of those guys, right? But not all of them hit, but a bunch of them did.

Or how they mined Forsling, but they also took the same shot on Julesen, and they also took the same shot on Yolevi and Adam Bokfist, right? But you don't need all of them to hit. You don't need to be right all the time if you're taking smart swings. The one that matters matters a lot. Okay, we got to rush through the rest here. Do you want to do quickly to the Red Wings? Sure.

The models really are not bullish on them. You're making the playoffs, despite the fact they were tied with the HABs for second in the Atlantic right now. And part of it is like just their 5-1-5 shares and this superficial look under the hood in terms of how they're creating. I do think they have elements

of being one of these quality over-quantity teams a little bit, partly because not only the top of their roster up front is so dynamic, but also because Mo Sider, is the best defensive defenseman in the world right now. And so if he's going to play 30 minutes over the course of a game, as we saw in their recent game in Colorado, you can afford to spend time in your own zone,

and he's just going to erase certain things that other defenders won't. And so they've been leaning on that a lot. Obviously, it's a tall task to keep doing so. They have the means to address obvious needs, whether it's at this deadline or this summer, because no one has more cap space than them, and they've hoarded all of these former first-round picks, that still have prospect status and will be on their ELCs.

And so, you know, they balked the idea of consolidating those guys into Quinn Hughes, which was obviously a mistake. They didn't go after Panarin necessarily that hard. And I'm curious to see what they do. And I hope it's an ambitious swing and not like, let's bring in Vincent Troja, because we need a senator, even though he certainly would help. I'd like to see it be Robert Thomas or like, you know, something that's going to be like a core member that lines up with the timeline of all these guys

with Larkin being on the outer edges of it because he's almost 30 already, but still fitting within his prime. So do you think Hughes, they made a mistake you think on Quinn? Well, undoubtedly from the perspective of he would have immediately transformed the organization and made them,

I don't know if they would have been a, you know, a shoe in as a Stanley Cup contender, but would have been at the higher end of this tier we're talking about right now, certainly. No doubt. I just wonder because their strength is so clearly on the back end, and their need is so clearly for... But he's such an offensive driver, though,

and this team is 27th and 5-on-5 goals and 29th and 5-on-5 shooting percentage, and he's like the one defenseman in the world who could meaningfully impact that. Yeah, I mean, it's a really interesting spot for me when I look at this Detroit Red Wings team because I still think they have a huge sort of war chest of assets to at some point take that big swing

and try to land that franchise. guy. And I think the Quinn Hughes sort of episode, even though they didn't get him, you know, at the cost of Edmondson plus plus, for example, still illustrates that the way that the Red Wings have accumulated talent, even though they haven't sort of gotten that breakout one C, which they clearly wanted and have clearly taken a ton of swings trying to land, you know, even lower in the, in the draft order, Danielson and Carl, uh, sorry, Casper types. I almost called him Carlson. because again, I've got the Olympics on the brain. And, but, you know, even though they haven't landed that guy,

even though they haven't got the draft lottery bounce, even though there's second guessing that you could do about some of their picks, the volume that they've accumulated through this stretch gives them just a ton of options. And it's sort of interesting, though, it feels like because they haven't had the lottery luck, because they haven't found the guys, it still feels like they're behind Montreal to me,

from a long-term outlook perspective, although, you know, I think they're comparably good this year. And I think have a comparably bright future. It just feels like their, Montreal feels like they have the guys that matter, whereas it feels like with Detroit, you're looking at Edvinson, you're looking at cider,

you're looking at Raymond, and, you know, DeBrinke and Larkin are obviously exceptional. But that sort of depth of guys that we feel pretty confident are, you know, big parts of what they're going to be in five years, it still feels like they need to land those dudes. And that's sort of an interesting dynamic,

which isn't to say that I doubt their ability to do so either. Like, this isn't criticism so much as I just think a clear-eyed assessment of where they're at. They're probably as good as Montreal today, but there's work to do, I think, to land those difference makers in terms of their long-term outlook. And so I'll be fascinated to see, I really hope they don't spend some of that war chest on rentals.

here. I think they have to be very careful. Even more so than Montreal, I think they have to be very careful because in some ways what they're building and their progress feels more fragile to me and more top heavy to me than what we're seeing out of the haves. Well, similar to what you said about the habs though, like getting cider and Raymond on the contracts they did at the time they did allows them to really think big here in terms of scaling it up and they have the resources to go big game hunting in terms of guys who have salary into the future and feel comfortable with it. And so I'm with you in hoping that they do that.

I do think I am a bit higher on them than some of those models just because of some of the stuff we talked about. I think the players that matter, they have those guys, maybe less flashy than some of the guys you mentioned for the HABs. But man, like cider and Raymond are just unbelievable. And so. And their power play is so good. Especially I think, I think that could be a really dangerous first round opponent.

But I guess I wonder if the. bookmakers and models are low on them from the perspective of having staying power in a playoff series. I think they're one of those teams that because of their special teams are so good and their five on four attack is so good, I think they could be a handful in a playoff series, especially early on in the playoffs. I just don't know that they generate enough five on five to have that sort of ceiling case that we're looking for from a real contender in the East. You know, because of the state of the East, really other than the Rangers and I guess the Flyers, we could pretty much talk about every team in some fascinating capacity here.

We've already ran long. So I don't know. We haven't talked about the Islanders, the Bruins, the Capitals. Do you want to end on the Panthers since you kind of hinted at it off the top? And I think obviously they've been in the news this week with the clarification that they will retain their first round pick of this draft. If it falls within the top 10 and won't go to Chicago for the Seth Jones trade and how they navigate that coming out of the break, I think will be really interesting. it will i think there's a few teams like i don't think i want to spend time on boston or anything i mean i think they've it's very clear that they've landed a dude in marco sturm and and obviously

david pasturnax incredible and they have some some fascinating building blocks and they've gotten some great performances so credit to them um you know i i do think the teams that are worth us dwelling on just a little bit more yeah for me but before we get into the panthers conversation uh if ottawa can get some saves i think they still have ceiling to be a a really annoying playoff opponent have you seen there just about anybody have you seen their shots allowed the past seven games against some pretty good teams along the way 19 20 18 27 but it was against the devil so that's really like 12 regular shots for a good offense and then 16 19 and 16 i mean they don't give up anything no they're the they're the best defensive team in the eastern conference and

probably the best defensive team in hockey now that the, you know, not the bottom, that's too much, but now that the LA Kings have kind of lost some of their, uh, defensive cutting edge, in my opinion over the course of the season.

I think they're the best defensive team in hockey. And if they can get some saves, um, I, you know, I think that's a team that if they get in, they're going to be really dangerous. And,

and I'd add Columbus under Rick bonus. Uh, they've become a little bit lower event. It's working for them. Uh, I think Jet Grieves is, exceptional, genuinely exceptional. Like has the ceiling to be a high-end goaltender here.

If they ride him down the stretch, I could see them continuing to stay hot. And in contrast with the Ottawa senators, they have the additional out of sort of that third spot in the metro, right? Which is very much up for grabs. The senators have something of a higher climb to get there, as do the Florida Panthers. And so the Florida Panthers, I mean, they've fallen out of it. the incentives for them big picture might be to pull the shoot here but you know if they're able to get hot prior to the deadline if they're able to push through i mean we can't i think ignore that they could still be playing in may

despite the fact that they're most likely to not be playing into late april yeah okay quickly the blue jackets i don't want to spend too much more time on it because i've got a deep dive come on the Patreon feed on Tuesday. And we're way over. How long have we been talking? I'm not worried about it. At this point, we're just talking amongst ourselves. The Blue Jackets, as you mentioned, there are only four points back of the Islanders for third of the Metro. They have two games in hand and two head-to-head matchups against them. So that's interesting. The senators, the playoff odds on hockey stats still have them at 44% despite the fact that there's six points back with 25 games left. So that's because of that defensive environment. Yeah, that's right. That's right to me because of how insane their

five-on-five gear is. Yeah. And how, you know, speaking on top of the lineup guys, I mean, Stutzla and then Sanderson, yeah. So the Panthers, Elliot Friedman's been kind of tiptoeing around this recently.

I don't know if you've seen this, but he's been talking about how through conversations he's heard that coming out of the Olympics, we might see some guys shut down. And obviously we saw or heard the news that Jonathan Hubbardo, for example, is opting to get surgery. He's not playing the Olympics, but his season's cut short. Some guys who are playing for,

their respective countries. We're clearly angling to be available because it's an honor and the league hasn't done this in a long time. But if the incentive isn't there, they'll shut it down. And the Panthers have a lot of those guys. Marsh Ann has been dealing with a lot of stuff. Eckblad, Seth Jones is out and missing the Olympics. You know, you go on down the line.

There's any number of guys. Obviously, Barcov is still out. It makes sense for them to do that because right now they have the 10th best lottery odds, which gives them like a 74% chance of retaining their pick. if they did tank or just played it smart with kind of sitting some of these guys out down the stretch, they could get passed by the sharks and predators very easily. And that gets them into the top eight, which guarantees keeping that pick and even gives them an outside shot of a top two lottery pick.

The question for me with them, because looking at their cap sheet, they're set up pretty nicely this summer with Barkov healthy, assuming all these guys get right, they're essentially going to bring this entire team back. They're not going to have a goal under contract right now. Bobrovsky's money is going to expire, but that's going to give them all of a sudden,

what, 15 million or so in cap space to add to this group, and you can carve out even more if you trade Evan Rodriguez's league minimum salary this summer, and that's three extra million you can play with. I'm not sure, though, how much of what's transpired this season is variance in bad luck with injuries and just accumulation of wear and tear from playing nearly 70 playoff games the past few years,

and how much of it is older guys tend to get hurt. Now, they've had younger guys get hurt as well. Like we've seen Lusterinen got burned alive by a barbecue. Like Lundell's been banged up. Like some guys who don't fit that bill have also been hurt, but Barkov's still in his prime. But with guys like Ekblad with his mileage and Marsh End, I'm not sure I necessarily want to assume

heading into next year that it's a clean slate for them and they're going to be healthy for all 82 and 25 more playoff games. no but i think you keep pushing through it when you have a chance to do special stuff and they do and you know the one of the edges and this is not a taxation edge although that exists too and is part of the story but it's only part of the story you know that conversation with bobrowski right um like do you think they can take it to the wire with him and have him help them build the maximum like the optimal possible team in terms of exactly what is compensation is because, you know, that's the level of trust that winning organizations are

able to build with, with players, like, almost certainly, right? Okay, Brian Winhorst fingers to you right now. They were rumored to be the Panarin team. And there were like logistical cap hoops they had to jump through to make it happen. They could have made it happen. And I do wonder whether it telegraphed the fact that that didn't work out that they're not as gung-ho about bringing Bobrovsky back. as you'd assume because obviously they're represented together, their best friends.

And I imagine like if it was like a shoe in that Barbarovsky's going to be back, we're going to pay him whatever, obviously not 10 million or whatever he's making now, but a good amount to spend the rest of his career here, that probably makes it more likely that Panarin comes along for the ride for those next two, three years. And the fact that that didn't happen and that conversation went off the rails and didn't wind up resulting in anything. I do wonder whether that had anything to do with it. Maybe not. maybe I'm reading too much into it, but I think that's interesting. It is interesting, especially given how conscious the Panthers have been in assembling this team of managing sort of the risk in competitive windows.

And he's been back this year. Yeah. But that's the regular season. That's always been like Broowski always underperforms his backups in the regular season. And then the edge in Sergei Bavrovsky is that he's always healthy and chips on the table. in a do or die game, it's very clear that those players all believe that he's going to make the save he needs to make. And that's half the battle when you have it as deeper roster as they have had, obviously challenged this year by a myriad of injuries. And, you know, I, so anyway, I'm not, I don't want to, I refuse out of respect for what they've done the last three years at this point until the little Y appears beside their name in the standings.

I refuse to put a drop of dirt on their casket. I'm just not going to do it. Until I see the stake in their heart, I'm going to include them among the list of, you know, eight teams that I think could still win the Stanley Cup this year. And pretty much every one of these defeats they've incurred. I guess the last one against the lightning, notwithstanding,

they've looked good for the most part and had a chance to win. And then things just kind of went south and they lost the game. And so, yeah, it's not like they've come. completely fallen off in terms of like, man, this team just doesn't have it anymore. The models have been very worried about that all year in terms of like still keeping them as a top five cup they should, even though they've been out of the playoffs. But I think it'll be fascinating to see coming out of Olympics, I guess, what the status is of everyone and how they choose to play it. And so, all right.

Well, that was a really fun episode. We covered a lot of ground. It was, I guess, our last NHL conversation before we switch gears and get into Olympic mode this coming week. you want to promote on the way out? Well, I think just really quickly, if you'll let me summarize, I just think the East's a little more wide open. And for that reason, in some ways, a little more interesting to me. I think the games that we see in the Western Conference are going to be super fun. Don't get me wrong, because I think there's some really high-level teams. But I think it's like five and a half teams that we could actually see going deep. The obvious five plus Utah is sort of a

half share. Whereas in the East, I think there's upward mobility for those teams, like even even your Ottawa Columbus teams. So I'm just fascinated to watch how this plays out in the Eastern Conference here. Well, also because of the fact that there's so many teams who are not used to in the playoffs, all of a sudden in conversation here, like the consequences of it won't feel as dramatic because whoever wins, you're not going to be like, well, now they're a favorite for the Stanley Cup. But if we get a round one where it's pretty much any of Detroit, Montreal, Buffalo facing each other, and then like Pittsburgh against, honestly, even Islanders with just Matthew Schaefer in the playoffs,

but if Columbus gets there and all of a sudden, they always play fun games against each other. There's so many storylines that I think are going to make for awesome theater. And like if you're Carolina, for example, you have this season that you do and you end up playing Buffalo in round one. Like that's a brutal draw, right? Buffalo could be a wildly inconvenient draw for one of the division winners.

I mean, whereas I just feel like Colorado, I guess Utah could give, Utah can give either of the division winners trouble. But, you know, it's really just a, ducking Utah dynamic in the in the west whereas in the east um i think it's more interesting anyway uh in terms of what i want to promote uh did you see that canada unveiled their olympic lines by the way

and we're getting celebrini with mac david uh for those first reported here on the pdo cast let's go buddy um so that's what i want to promote the olympics i'm less bullish on team u s a projected lines based on their practice yeah well especially the on defense i thought that was um all right they they need to Sanderson, man. He's part of what makes them so scary is this idea that they're going to be impossible to forecheck in a series of games with no neutral zone. Yeah, so look, I've got some special Olympic projects that'll be running at the Athletic. I don't want to, I don't want to promote them too much. But stay tuned to the athletic. We're going to have some incredible Olympic coverage, and that starts tomorrow. So I'm really excited for some of the things that I'll be working on there. And then Canucks Talk is basically going to become an Olympic postgame show. across the next couple weeks. I think you'll be heavily involved, my friend. And you and I, of course, are going to step up and do some additional shows as well.

So not just the Sunday special during the Olympics. We're way too excited. I've already set my alarm for like 3 a.m. Pacific time just to watch some like France, Switzerland, some Italy, whomever, like, whatever. I don't care. I'm going to watch all of it. And I can't wait. Buddy, dress for the job you want or whatever the saying is.

I've been waking up at 3 a.m. for the past two weeks. just preparing my internal clock for being in peak mode to watch those games. It's going to be so good. I'm excited. Yes, during the Olympics, every day is going to be a special Sunday. All right, buddy, this was a lot of fun. If you wanted some of that extra content as well, subscribe to the PEOCest Patreon. I'm going to write up a newsletter about some of the top power plays in the league this week.

We did a Panera and Trade breakdown with Harmon Dial, a bunch of other good stuff there. Give us a five-star review wherever you listen. And that is all for another Sunday special. We'll be back later this week with that Olympic coverage. Thank you for listening to the Hockey Pediocast stream. on the Sports Night Radio Network.