The Hockey PDOcast - Breaking Down Mikko Rantanen to the Canes, and Martin Necas to the Avs

Episode Date: January 26, 2025

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Thomas Drance to break down this weekend's monster trade involving the Carolina Hurricanes and Colorado Avalanche, how Mikko Rantanen and Martin Necas will fit on their new teams, and every important angle surrounding the deal. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the HockeyPedioCast. My name is Dimitra Filippovich, and joining me for our Sunday special here in studio is my good buddy, Tom Strands. Tom, what's going on, man. Oh, man, what a crazy weekend of hockey news and hockey games. Lots to break down. This one's going to be extra special.

This is an extra Sunday special. I'm very excited about it. Yeah, because, you know, midweek, I'm always thinking, all right, jotting down notes. What are we going to talk about? some trade stuff already planned, I think, and then the NHL rewarded us because on Friday night, they drop the blockbuster of all blockbusters. I think probably the biggest trade we're going to see during this trade cycle. Arguably one of the biggest in-season trades we've seen, I don't know how far back you want to go, right, but like a player of Miko Retinence caliber

getting traded in a deal like this. I mean, and you'd say this is bigger than the Eichael trade, given that Eichl hadn't played in so long. There was uncertainty, and even he was still injured at the time, right? He didn't wind up coming back for Vegas Golden Knights until weeks after the trade. So you probably have to go to Joe Thornton. Like honestly, you probably have to go to Joe Thornton. I mean, Miko Raton is a caliber of player. We almost never see get traded period, but certainly rarely see get traded in season. In season, definitely, it almost harkens back to, and this was obviously an offseason trade, but the one that we saw a couple summers ago between the Florida Panthers and Calgary Flames involving Matthew Kachuk. And the reason why I bring that up is because

at the time, I believe that happened on like a Friday evening. as well, and it was during the summer. And then you and I, on Sunday, just like we're doing now, got together and broke that trade down. And it was one of my favorite shows we done, I think, for the listeners as well, because we got into just such extreme detail on like all the business angles, the fits, everything. And I think that trade, our breakdown of it at least winds up holding up pretty well because we were incredibly high on it. I think maybe a bit too high on it from the flames perspective, because we were talking about their defense core at the time and how their depth would play.

But we were very high on it, obviously, from the Panthers perspective, in terms of changing their identity. I was so excited about a Tan of Weger pair. You were so excited, which obviously now doesn't quite hold up as well. But that's what we're going to try to do here today. We're going to try to replicate that. But it was one of those where I ended up getting messages from some people in Florida who said, thank you.

I got thank yous from folks in Florida for that trade coverage. I doubt we're going to get similar notes from the Aves or the Carolina Hurricane staff here. I don't know, because I feel like both have people in their staffs. certainly listen to this show. And so I think it's actually a pretty good bet that we will get some sort of feedback on it. We're going to try to do our due diligence here. We're going to talk about why they did it, how it all fits options ahead. We're going to spend the next 50 minutes exhausting every possible angle to this. I think we need to start with the hurricane side, obviously, because they're the one getting the commandant here. They play this to perfection in so many ways.

And let me set the scene for you here because it goes all the way back to last summer when there was, I think, serious belief that around the draft, they would wind up selling Martin Aches for what probably would have been cents on the dollar, because I think everyone was clear that there was, everyone was aware, at least, there was discontent, that they wouldn't be able to come to a long-term extension with him. There was questions about how he fit in Rod Brindermore's system, his usage, whether it was the place to get the most out of his skill set. And I think Buffalo was the team that was probably furthest down the road to it, and I think

Kevin Adams in that mid-season presser a couple weeks ago even hinted at such. Instead, the Hurricanes front office holds firm, despite all that uncertainty. They sign him to this two-year extension on July 29th, and then they see him start the season

on the heater of all heaters, right? He drops 41 points in the first 26 games. He's leading the entire league in scoring in early December, and I feel like that probably enabled a lot of this to happen and transpire, right? It opened a lot of doors. It really kind of was the full culmination of all the potential we've seen for Marty Naches. And I imagine that caught a lot of people's eye in terms of just the way and the flare that he was creating with. And then you get to a

point that this is going to be right in your wheelhouse, we've heard a lot of reporting that leading up to the trade coming together Friday night, the hurricanes were really exploring all options. They basically had the Canucks on one line. We'd heard. them linked to J.T. Miller, it seems like in those late hours, it was probably more oriented around Elas Pedersen instead. They ultimately chose to go this route with the avalanche and acquiring Miko Ranton. And I just find that fascinating because it's another reminder of the way the hurricanes, I guess, have run their team as an actual business. That's something we speak about how, like, sometimes when you hire general managers who are former players, they might have the hockey sense or the connections or

kind of the feel for looking at players and seeing who's good and who's not, but sometimes they don't have the best business acumen, right? And so you see a lot of trades where it's like, all right, they left a little bit of value here. Maybe they tied their hands and restricted themselves in the future with some of the contracts or assets they gave up in deals. And that's not the way the hurricanes run their ship, right? No. They maintain flexibility meticulously.

They accumulate assets. And so every time one of these players becomes available, I don't think it's a surprise that they're the ones that are always, link to them right now similar to jay gentsill and in back-to-back years got the big fish and that's what i was saying back-to-back years one of our complaints was it's great that they have the flexibility and are in on every available player but they didn't really land that big fish the most recent one was timo mire a couple deadlines ago right when they were very close new jersey wound up getting them they kept their ink dry all of a sudden now they get jay gansel last deadline they get miko radden in 10 or

11 months later. And I just feel like starting off with that, that's such a massive W for the Hurricanes Organization to be the team that's being able to push this stuff to the finish line and actually keep improving their team in very seismic ways like this. So there's so many different angles that we can get at. I think let's start with what they gave up. I want to start with what they gave up and then move on to Rand. Well, shouldn't we save that for the avalanche portion, maybe in segment two?

Well, so I don't think so because. I think there's a, I think there's a commingling between hockey and business priorities. And that's sort of the story for Marty NACA's this season. And I think brings us to this point. Like, we know that the hurricanes fundamentally redesigned some of how they attack. But we also know that the hurricanes will never fundamentally, under Rod Brindamore, prioritize leaving zones with possession. That's not how they play, right?

That's never how they're going to play. they play stress hockey. That's, that's, you know, in their, like, that's a bone-deep principle. And I don't think that suits Marty Natchez particularly well, although I do think he's come along a fair bit. I think he built enough trust with Rod Brindamore to get the sort of usage that he got this season. And yet, I think we all know that he was always one dipsy-doodle at the offensive blue line

from being dropped down the lineup. Yep. Like, we know that. Yep. And I think that was always going to be the case. between this player and this coach. And that's not to say that Rod Brinnamorda didn't like him or didn't. I mean, he was leading the team in scoring.

The Hurricanes gave up their leading scorer who is signed this year and next and is a pretty unique piece. But I do think there are some hockey IQ questions there for all that he's an incredible burner with an incredible skill level and also a big frame. I mean, he's an awesome player. And so I do think in redesigning the way that they attack, not only have they created a team that I think is going to be better able to avoid the we made some goalie a hero in the playoffs thing that has dogged them for the last several years.

But I also think they created an environment where NACIS was able to break out to another level. And then they were able to sort of deal a player that was excellent, but maybe not a great fit with how they wanted to play long term, for a player that I think will fit better in me great. And I think that's, you know, one of those, like, from X's and O's to the cap sheet to the trade market, that's like a holistic maneuver that I think created value for the team. And I don't think we should overlook that that's part of this story. I also think the other part of this that we need to unpack is the Pedersen versus Miko Raton part of this. Now, obviously we know Pedersen comes with a greater degree of risk given that he hasn't looked like.

a superstar player in about 12 months, or at least not consistently, the way Rantan has every year for the last four years. But I also think there's an element to which we need to understand the hurricanes and how they assign prices a little bit differently because they're playing something of a different game than the rest of the league.

Most teams, I think, would look at Miko Ranton as a potential Renton as a potential Rennon. especially if they haven't had contract talks with them before doing the deal. And would look at Pedersen is, hey, yeah, there's some risk. But the upside is seven more years, cost certainty. And I think when you consider the way that the hurricanes buy rentals, I think when you consider the way that the hurricanes don't worry at all about going past the deadline with Tevo Teravinen and Brett Pesci and Dougie Hamilton and, I mean, a long list of guys on expiring deals,

they don't worry about extensions the same way. And I think what this speaks to is that the hurricane. fundamentally value flexibility and cap space differently than everyone else in the league. And I don't know if they're right or wrong. This isn't a value statement. I mean, I love the way they do business generally. But I think what it is is incredibly self-confident. They are very self-confident that they're going to be able to find Brent Burns for 20 cents on the dollar.

They're very confident that they're going to be able to find Sean Walker on day two of free agency. And I think this is what that's a bet on. They're betting on their ability to mine value year after year by making these deals and not worrying about the same sort of cost certainty angle that most teams in the league are preoccupied with. Well, I think from an all nice fit and player playing style perspective, I think I would lump the avalanche here, interestingly enough, into that as well, from the perspective of both teams have curated such unique and extreme systems, obviously wildly different, but in their own way, as different as possible.

So unique that I think they both have an understandable level of confidence that they're going to be able to bring players in and assuming they somewhat fit within that scheme are going to get more out of them than they ever had in their previous stop. And I imagine we'll talk more about NACIS and the Avalanche perspective later on, but I imagine they feel the same way where what we've seen from NACIS so far is obviously very good, productive, and intriguing. but in that system at that pace,

there's probably, I imagine they feel like there's even more an unlock, especially at his age, right? So ultimately when you're, and the hurricanes should have that type of hubris, essentially, for lack of a better term, because the trade market or the market in general, even in the summer and free agency, is your oyster when you have a combination of flexibility

and desirable assets, right? Like everyone is going to want to do business with you. That's why they were able to, to get against the last year because they could trade their eighth, tenth, and 14th best prospects or whatever, and that might be equivalent to another team's first or second best prospect in cumulative value. What's amazing here is that in both of these deals,

they didn't really give up any premium futures. They kept their first round picks, which they obviously value but can use in future deals. And they didn't dip into Niketian, Scott Morrow, Bradley Nadeau, Jackson Blake, a lot of the players that would probably, probably would be most desirable in terms of their cost effectiveness. They probably didn't give up a top five prospect.

No, they certainly didn't. In either deal, which is remarkable, considering they were two of the biggest players on the market. Back to Ranton in here quickly, and let's deep dive this part, because you mentioned how rare it is to see a player of this caliber moved in season. Since 2020, the only players with more goals score than him

are Austin Matthews, Leodre Seidel, and Cotton and McDavid. This year, he's seventh in goals, and sixth in points. Most importantly for the hurricanes, though, and this is an extension of what they tried to accomplish last year with Gensel, how devastatingly efficient he is offensively. Right.

He's gotten nearly 1,800 shots on net in his NHL career, and he's turned north of 16% of those into goals. That type of conversion rate and efficiency at that volume puts him in rarefied air in league circles. And so back to your point about how the hurricanes in remodeling their offensive approach here have acknowledged that their previous way of thinking had its limitations and had its ceiling come the postseason,

a guy like Ranton in with his efficiency as a shooter and a playmaker, I feel like unlocks so many doors. So when you're talking, it's not just that they brought in a player of his caliber, but the unique and specific skill set he has here is pretty much exactly what they've been craving, right? And I think Elliot Freeman said as much on Saturday night on Hockey Night and Canada, that they feel like they've never really had a player of this stature in league circles. Like, who's the most, the most explosive offensive player that they've had that I can think of as a hurricane is probably Prime Eric Stahl.

Yeah. And he was certainly a volume shooter and a goal score at his best. The problem is that Prime Eric Stahl was his first, like 20, like was his first two years. Yes. It's just his prime came right off the hop. No, it's an interesting point. He is one of the most unique players in hockey, period. The other part of this that I think matters is, you know, running the half wall.

Yep. I mean, he's devastatingly good at it. And I do think Carolina, which has hovered, you know, around average five on four, I think he's going to be a huge boon to what they're able to do. There's an element to which I always loved the city of Denver having both Rantan and Nicola Yokic at the same time because they're such unique big man playmakers. Like there's an element to Miko Rantanin's game. He's a great goal score.

Don't get me wrong. But I do think the playmaking at his size has always been what was most unique about him. There's an element, and granted my, I grew up in Vancouver in the 2000s is going to be showing here, but there's an element to which there's a little bit of Bertuzi in his game, not in terms of the snarl or the, you know, legal issues, but the, the way that he's able to protect the puck and then use his sort of overall size and puck protection ability to create space for others, I think is unique. The other thing I've always loved watching about Ranton, I'm sure I've talked about this on the show. Oh, yeah, shortening up on the stick.

Shortening up on the stick the way that his hands are so far in front of him. And he's still able to protect the puck. I mean, that's a hallmark for guys like Connor Garland, you know, but Connor Garland is literally a foot shorter. Yeah, he's already miniature. He's always shortening up because that's how short his stick is. But to do it at six foot four, six foot five or whatever, rant in sizes. I mean, I've never seen, I've never, I've never seen a man that big control the puck the way he does. I mean, I think there's a real chance that the Carolina Hurricanes just land.

one of the five best wingers in the league, and that's a well-worthwhile tier-up from what NACIS was providing them as good as he was. Well, and his ability to help turn shots into goals which is what they're craving is so multifaceted here, because on the one hand, as you mentioned, he's a phenomenal passer and playmaker at that size. He uses his frame so effectively to protect the puck in different ways.

His offensive philosophy, I think, coming from Colorado is going to rub off on the guys he played. plays with as well. We saw this effect with Gensel when he came to Carolina last year. They fundamentally changed their approach and a lot of that was him coming in and enabling them to do so. And all of a sudden, they just became so much more dangerous offensively. I also love that this trade happened on Friday night. We're recording Sunday, late morning, early afternoon. So we've had about 40 hours or so to sit on this and marinate on it. We've also had the luxury of watching each of these teams play a game with these guys. And it's just one game. So you don't want to read too much into

certainly. But from the Carolina perspective, they play him in his debut with Aho and Jackson Blake, right? And they play about 13 minutes together, 5-1-5. They already dominate in terms of shots, chances, A-O scores a goal where he kind of bounces it in. But you could see what it's going to look like in his final forum where Rantanin is popping open in the slot. He's got all these opportunities to fire in the middle of his ice. And I also think something you're going to see once teams get more reps watching and playing against this team, is he, like, just his presence on the ice when he's an offensive zone, is going to command a level of respect that I think is going to open up space for his linemates.

And the value in that is, regardless of how much they change, the hurricanes are always going to be a team that wants to get the puck on the net from somewhere and then attack around the net. And because Ranton is one of those rare players that can actually score from distance, like his shot is so lethal, whether it's a one-timer or him snapping it on net, that he can beat you from a bit further out kind of in that higher slot. And so if the opposing defense is now having to commit resources to respecting that and challenging them and bringing extra bodies out there,

all of a sudden a guy like Ahio or Jarvis or Svetnikov or whoever winds up sharing the ice with him is going to have that much more space and time, I think, to corral some of these rebounds that they generate and turn those into additional scoring opportunities. And so I just feel like obviously the skill set is one thing, but just having a player like him on the ice, I feel like makes life easier for so many other hurricanes. And so I think that's part of this calculus as well, right? Like there's just the avenues in which they can beat you now, I feel like multiplied in to whatever degree you want to say. Yeah. And I think this is all part of the overall hurricanes bet that I agree on, by the way, which is that the way we play,

does not fundamentally suppress offense. We need to evolve. Don't get us wrong. But we are not suppressing offense with our style of play. However, we do need to recognize that we need more skilled guys playing those sorts of minutes, right? I mean, I do think there's like a final form of what the hurricanes could look like where, you know, if you had like a Valardi type who's still really good defensively

but can obviously do a lot more offensively than a Jordan Martinuk. Yep. Right? That would mean a lot in terms of punching this team up. And I think one thing this trade also accomplishes, you know, they've been playing that Natchez-Kakenei-Durie line where you've sort of got three guys who I kind of view as centerman and Drury was taking the draws and then he kind of hurt his hand and cock-Kenemy sort of was taking draws and on and on.

But, you know, effectively you've replaced two parts of that line with Ranton and Taylor Hall, guys who I think, and I like Drury a lot, I obviously like Natchez a lot. I obviously like Natchis a lot. But I think the obvious offensive juice that you're getting from Hall and Ranton and versus those guys is like part and parcel with, I think, a really clear-eyed view of where the hurricanes needed to get to so that they don't end up scoring three goals across their two biggest games of the year and losing with a goalie who all of a sudden has, you know, Kahn-Smith Buzz.

Yeah, every goalie plays the best against them. Yeah, well, and at the end of every hurricane series, everyone's saying, hey, this goalie who hasn't been good all year, he should win the cons might. Right. And it's like, or it's the hurricanes, right? Yes. I think this is a, I think what you're seeing is a club being really clear-eyed and diagnosing sort of what their issue have been and going out and taking really smart steps,

both on the whiteboard, on the ice, and in the boardroom to kind of fix it. Yep. The self-evaluation has been exemplary. The usage is interesting, too, because Colorado, over the past, what, three years because of depth concerns and because of personnel and because of how good their top players are have leaned on their top guys to an outlandish degree, right? You look at Miko Ranton's been averaging essentially 22 and a half minutes per game over the past three years. And there's been stretches in there where someone would be out and he'd all of a sudden you'd

look up and Miko Ranton has played 27 minutes tonight and that would just be a regular theme for them. That's not what the hurricanes do. Sebastian Ajo's led this team in terms of forward usage. at like 19 and a half to 20 minutes for essentially the past three years in that same sequence of time. Now, Rod Brindamore in the Hurricanes, as we said, have never had a player like Miko Randinen. So I imagine situationally when push comes to shove, I'm sure they'll expand that and be willing to use them a little bit more. But for a player who's 28, soon to be 29, with a ton of miles on them, especially postseason

reps along the way, I feel like getting the most out of him from like an efficiency perspective, it probably will serve him well, I think, to play more like. 18 to 19 minutes and conserve his energy a little bit and not essentially have to be like, all right, well, I have to play 24 minutes tonight. So there's going to be a few shifts. I think that's what's played a role here in him being, I think, one of the more unfairly talked about and treated stars in the league. And it happens to guys with this frame, right?

If you're like big and lanky, it looks like you're not trying that hard because you can just so effortlessly move along the ice. Whereas if you are, let's keep with a Conorne Garland analogy, every shift you take looks like you're working so hard because it's like you're just having to take multiple extra steps and like you're so low to the ice and it always looks like you're involved in everything. Whereas if you're Antonin, you've got a bit more of an upright stride, looks like you're kind of coasting, but you're still covering actually the same amount of ground

and it's not an indictment against your effort level. And so I feel like I've seen that a lot, right? People be like, oh, man, imagine how Mcorrentinen, how good he'd be if he actually cared or tried. It's like, I think he is trying and I think he cares. it just kind of looks like that. But I think it'll be easier for him maybe to exert a bit more energy if he's knowing. He's like, all right, I'm going to play 18 minutes tonight. And so those seven fewer minutes or six fewer minutes, I can just go harder.

And so I'm curious to see if that happens here as well. What do you think of the Taylor Hall of all of this? Well, it's interesting. I had him bookmarked for later because I wanted to get into the hawk side of this, quote-unquote, three-team. And that's good because I suspect we're going to disagree. I think the hawks, I don't think the hawks did as poorly as the rest of the hockey world. seems to. I think they did horrifically. Yeah, I know. And I think it's a continuation of Kyle Davidson seemingly not understanding the position he's in.

Or the value of cap space. Yes. Fair. To some extent. A couple more notes on Rantan. There are a couple concerns analytically with his game. One is the past two years, similar to Kelmacara conversation. When he hasn't been on the ice 515 with Nathan McKinnon, his numbers have plummeted, and that's been about 400 minutes or so the past two years. Also, his defensive metrics have dropped off. I feel like in that conversation, or you're saying the hurricanes operate a little bit differently

and feel so confident of what they have in place. I'm just going to reiterate what I said with Jake Gensel last year, where it's like, if you're a good player, this is such a great structure for you to step into if your concerns are defensive metrics. And with or without you stats in your previous destination, because it's like, well, he's probably going to play with really good players. He's playing with Sebastian Ajo now.

And there's a bunch of other wingers they can alternate with them. And also, you always know there's, going to be people back to support you. And so I think a lot of those concerns aren't really an issue for me. Yeah, I mean, when your third pair consists of Gostas Baron Walker instead of Molinski and Middleton, my guess is that the Wowies look a little different as the sample expanse. Now, do you think this is right? The market bumped the hurricanes up above the oilers as the clear favorite to win the Stanley Cup.

I think Dom's model gave them an extra 3%. in terms of likelihood, bumped down up from like 9 to 12 percent in terms of their likelihood of winning the Stanley Cup? Do you think that's an overreaction or do you think that's fair? I think the Edmonton Oilers should be the favorite. I think they're very clearly in my mind the top true talent team in the sport, but I do think that Carolina should now be favored. I mean, like just in terms of how I look at it, I've kind of been handicapping this and

thinking about it and thinking that the Florida Panthers should be the clear favorite in the because I think the Metro is such a gauntlet. Well, they're probably going to have to play New Jersey in round one. That's what I'm saying. Right? Because the caps are up seven points on them with a game in hand. Although, yeah. Yeah, no, I mean, I think that's likely, but there's some signs of softness in the

caps overall profile. Seven points are still, like, it's becoming tough to... But if you're playing coin flip hockey every game the way the caps are, I know they're winning a lot of those coin flips, but that still concerns me. I mean, I think there's a material. talent gap between what Carolina could do over the next 32 and what Washington could do as a downside case. So my point is, I think that Carolina Hurricanes shouldn't be favored because their route is too difficult relative to Florida and any Western team, frankly. But, you know,

Edmonton has Vegas in their division. That's not great. And then so, yeah, so I think for that reason I would have Carolina as the fit. I don't even know if I'd make them the favorite in the east ahead of Florida. To be honest with you, I think they're better than Florida, but I think Florida's path would be enough. I think the gap in quality of their potential path is sufficient that I'd probably still have the Panthers favorite in the East and Carolina favorite to come out of the metro, but in a pretty narrow band with the New Jersey Devils as well. Let's take our break. What do you think of that? I think that's fair. I think we should, I mean, the Panthers are still TBD, because they obviously haven't made any moves yet.

And I think they have a few questions to answer. I'm probably on the more bullish side on them, as I have been all year than I think most people are. Let's take our break here. And then when we come back, I want to talk quickly about Ranton's future. And then I think that'll tie into the conversation about the avalanche side of this deal.

You're listening to the Hockey-Pedio-Cast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. All right, we're back here in the Hockey-Docas with Tom Adjance. We're doing our Sunday special. So, Tom, I think this is going to be a perfect segue for us to talk about the Avalanche side of things because obviously it's the main reason why this trade happened in the first place. Looking ahead with Miko-Ranton, set to be a free agent and hit the open market

this summer and kind of what that's going to look like. The Cain's situation here is interesting because the cap this year is $88 million. I don't know what's your feel right now for what the cap is going to be next year because I've seen anywhere between 92 and a half and I think Elliot Freeman even said where Alan Walsh was saying that it could be up to $90, because they want to smooth it to when it gets in the hundreds because they don't want all of a sudden the situation kind of like what happened in the NBA where it goes from like 92 to 104

and all of a sudden teams are like, what's going on here? And everyone's just getting outrageous contracts and there's a bunch of jealousy within the league and all that. Yeah, you don't want, you don't want, I've been talking for years. Throughout the flat cap era, I've been talking about who in the NHL is going to be

the Timofé Mosgav of hockey, right? Because Moscov was the guy who got the Lakers money after the strikeout. It was Moscov and I think dang in the same. I'm going through all day. Incredible stuff. And so no one wants to be, or do you want to have Mosgovs? I mean, players should want to have Moskhovs, by the way.

But yeah, I mean, the problem is as much confidence as anyone can have about where the cap could go. There's also like real saber rattling on a political level between the United States and America on things like a potential trade war. 25% tariffs. And until we have some clarity there, could that impact the Canadian dollar during the playoffs, which would impact sponsorships, like significant high revenue sponsorships for big market teams? Until we have a good sense of what's going to happen to the value of the Canadian dollar and just the North American economy generally over the next couple months, I really think

confidently asserting that the cap is going here or there is a bit of a fool's errand. But provided that things stay relatively normal, I think you stick with what Alan Walsh is saying, he's got the best intel on this surely. All right, there's CNN correspondent Thomas Trans. No, well, you have to, the thing about cap growth. Yeah. And one of the biggest stories is the idea that the league could smooth with a three-year predictable window. Yes. Because in over half of the seasons, since the salary cap came into play, we have not had growth.

And most of the time, growth has been anticipations. and then not arrived. So you had, you know, the cap came into being in 2005. You had the market crash in 08. Then you had the lockout and the rollback that came out of the 2013 lockout. Then you had in 2015, the value of the Canadian dollar plummeted. Teams weren't sure how much cap space they would have. And then all of a sudden you had that summer where like Sean Matias and like all those guys

of the leaf signed, PA Parento like got squeezed because the cap didn't grow for no reason. and then you had five flat cap seasons from the pandemic. Like the truth is is that while the upper limit of the NHL salary cap remains tied to revenue, which is impacted by real world economic conditions, you can't ignore the fact that like a global pandemic, a market crash, a sudden devaluing of CAD attached to oil prices is going to impact your favorite hockey team too. And so that's just, that's where I'm at.

And right now, I think everyone needs to take a deep breath. This is like when, never forget, it was March 7th, a board of governors meetings in Boko, Rattan, where the NHL, like Bill Daly, came out and said the cap could go as high as 88 million. We're still not there. We're still not there. That was March 7th, 2020. So you can't ignore what you're seeing on CNN in sort of handy. gaping this stuff. Regardless of how much it spikes. I know, I know I took this conversation not

where you were open. The hurricanes have 57 million in cap commitments for next year. Yeah. So regardless of how you slice it, they're probably going to have somewhere around 35 million in cap space this summer because they have a bunch of guys, particularly in the blue line with Orlov and, um, and Brent Burns's contracts coming off the books and a couple other bit players up front. So I think their opportunity to keep aggressively adding or remodeling or re-envisioning what this team looks like is about as open there as it is for any contender in the league right now. I'm curious to see what winds up happening here and whether they're able to convince a guy like Rand to stay or whether they want to pay what it's going to cost because we're going to

talk about what that contract's going to look like in a second here. But a lot of the focus around these conversations is always about A.A.V. And about tax-free states and everything, right? I think in this case, though, especially for a star player, Randon's caliber, what gets lost in the shovel is the importance of how that money is dispersed, in particularly as it relates to signing bonuses. And part of the reason why the Panthers, for example, have been able to get Barkov at 10 million, Kachuk at 9.5, Gustav Forsling at 5.75, even for Hagee, most recently at 7, is because you look at how those contracts are structured. and they're maximizing their financial leverage to the utmost degree. All of those deals, the base salary every year is $1 million, and the rest is paid out annually in signing bonuses.

And so I imagine that's what Ranton and his agent would probably want here as well. Now, the hurricanes, I think, in the past, that would have been a qualm from here, a concern about their willingness to do so under Tom Dundon. I will say, though, the Jacob Slaven deal, the biggest deal they've signed recently and part of why i think they got his numbers so low along with like some of the deferred stuff along the way is they did exactly that with him they gave him a ton of signing bonus money which wasn't really their MO previously so all of a sudden now if they're actually going to be willing to play ball with the deepest pocket teams in the league in that way

i feel like the possibility of rant and not just being a three-month acquisition or whatever but being someone that's actually going to be here for the next handful of years becomes a much more realistic possibility. Now, Vegas, a few other teams along the way, I think, are all going to be there if he does hit the open market and are going to have no hesitation about giving him exactly that type of deal he's looking for. So I don't know, do you have any thoughts on that or do you want to go to the avalanche? I just thought that was interesting for this conversation because on one sense,

there's no talk of an extension yet in place. yet at the same time I feel like the possibility at least is there. This isn't obviously just a pure rental. No, it's not a pure rental, but also, you know, I think the optionality that the hurricanes, when we talked about it a little bit in the first segment, but the optionality that the hurricanes are comfortable with, right? The volatility they're comfortable with, the risk they're comfortable with, I think, you know, makes it so that whether they keep renting in or not

doesn't determine the success or failure of this deal. You know, and I think that's an important, I mean, I referred to it as being self-confident, but it puts you in a position of strength even before you open negotiations. We're comfortable moving on. If we have to, we'll pivot. We'll also try to keep the guy. They did try to keep Gensel and that got down to the wire before Gensel. Well, I mean, I think Gensel was always headed to Tampa, but he obviously heard them out at length before that transpired.

I loved the quote, by the way, in this vein from Pierre LeBron's interview with Eric Tulski at the Athletic. Until we have the 20 best players in the league all on one team, there's always somewhere we can upgrade. I know it's a little bit boilerplate, but it's also, I think, a sort of statement of rigor that I feel like we don't often get from NHL teams. Again, I think it comes down to the certainty thing. You have a core locked up and you're like, well, we're set here, here, here, here. And as we've seen repeatedly over hockey, like, you're never as set as you think. There's always going to be an injury. There's always going to be underperformance.

There's always going to be guys aging out quicker than you'd hoped or what have you. So I think there's a rigor in that statement that I, that certainly caused my eyebrows to furrow. I think the reason, let's get the abs here. The reason why they did this now, as opposed to waiting until March 7th or closer to deadline to pull the trigger is because I think they acknowledge that this is going to require a serious adjustment period. Now, because of the way they started the year, there's still in legitimate battle for points every single game here. Like they're currently behind Calgary and point percentage for the first wild card. So they're sitting in the second wild card. The Canucks are

six points back of them. Despite all their struggles, they have two games in hand on them. You're going to see it first off off the ice, right? I think. think this is something that maybe you and I can't really speak to us closely because neither you or I cover the team or have been there in person, but you could just see it in terms of the post-game interviews on Saturday after the Avs lost to the Bruins, like the McKinnon interview, the Jared Bednar one, like how they're, it's a business. And I think everyone knew this was a realistic possibility along the way if they were going to play hardball contractually, but I still don't think that takes away any of the sting from what it actually happens. And I

think that's part of it on the ice in that debut you could also see the full potential of what natures could look like in this situation and you could also see that there's going to need some they're going to need to allow for some time to figure things out right especially with him and mckinan with both guys being so puck dominant in terms of transport and carrying it also in terms of like handedness and spacing there were a couple times where like mckinin's looking for the one-timer and natchez just throws the puck a little bit off and he's not able to get it because he had such unbelievable chemistry with Randon and for playing with them together for so long. So I think that's why they did it now, right? I think people were like, well, if this is all you could get from Michael Randin and

why not wait till closer to the deadline, I think the avalanche not only to allow themselves to obviously make future moves that are going to come and we're going to speak about that, but I just think giving it time to actually play out on the ice is probably a big selling point here too. Yes. Well, and you go from so I don't buy for example that like the Carolina system suppresses players offense because if that were true where's the examples of guys that leave Carolina

and explode offensively right? In fact we saw the opposite. Jake Gensel went Pittsburgh to Carolina and what was he on 115, 120 point pace in his time with the hurricanes. That said, I actually think NACIS is a bit of an outlier case where his skills are so evident

in transition, right? Like, his ability to make plays with the puck at top speed at his size is what's special about him, right? And the hurricanes don't play necessarily in a way that highlights those strengths, the avalanche, playing in a way that should highlight those strengths more than just about any other team in hockey. Like, I do think there's a world where the fit here for the avs is. and I'm not saying that he's going to like replace

Rantanin or anything, so much as I do think there's a world where the avs are legitimately able because of how they play and what they emphasize, especially in terms of puck possession through the neutral zone, where they're able to get something like 10% more out of NACIS than the Carolina hurricanes

were able to. And, you know, he was already having a career year and on pace to be a 90 plus point guy. So that's a pretty exciting prospect. Like I think this is a, I think this is a pretty nice return overall for Colorado, given the expiring nature of Rantin's deal and the fact that they'd already made the decision that they weren't going to be able to keep him. You know, you get NACIS, you've got two years with him, you get Drury, who's like a bottom six center that I actually really like. He's also in that avalanche mold where, I mean, how many times have the aves gone out and gotten Nachushkin or Lekinen or these guys who you love the process?

you're like, but they can't finish. Yeah. And turns out maybe they can, right? Like, turns out there's maybe more juice there from a finishing perspective than you thought when the avalanche acquired them. Like, for me, Drury is exactly in the avalanche wheelhouse of let's bet that the goals catch up to what we're seeing in terms of controlling play. And then the nature's thing has a chance to be a better fit for them than he might have been for any other team in hockey, frankly. Yeah, just with the spacing and how they move in the obviously. defensive zone like there's so much interchange and guys in different positions i think that's

going to take some time i think what they did here i mean first off you know you said when they decided they couldn't keep ranting in i know it's semantics i mean they could have i think they chose not to right here right it sounds like what happened and without getting too much into speculation is they were probably going to re-sign them for somewhere in that 11.75 to 12.5 window, which would keep them, which would make him the highest paid winger, but still keep them below Nathan McKinnon's 12.6 annual salary. And then Leon Dreisel got $14 million one month before the season started. And I imagine Mikhail Ranton was like, obviously not the player that Leondre Seidel is, doesn't play the same position. But was like, well, I should probably just wait and actually maximize my earning power and cash in here.

And so his side drew a pretty hard line in the sand in terms of wanting more than the avalanche were willing to give him. He is kind of the winger version of Leon Drysidal, though, in that Drysidels, like, you shouldn't be able to be a consistent 50-goal 100-point center. Who should's 20%? But Leon Drysiddle is. And you shouldn't be able to be a consistent, what, 35-goal 90-point winger, but Randinen is. I mean, he definitely deserves to be the highest paid winger in hockey. And if the cap is going up to, you know, the mid-90 range and then up to the hundreds, these elite players should be getting lifts.

Like, that shouldn't just be going to the middle class. It just takes a couple of guys who are willing to stick it out and bet on themselves and rant and did. And I think fair game. So in this deal, the avalanche get younger, right? Because they just turned 26. They bought themselves obviously an extra year of time because they just assigned at 6.5, year and I think increased their flexibility to make moves because they get a second and fourth

round pick here they clear a bit of salary whatever like just over one million and they get two guys for one which is what you spoke about in our bear versus bull and I think this was an acknowledgement I think Chris McQuarland even said so and his presser it was like just needing more bodies and more NHL bodies yeah I mean I think by my count we've seen them have a full complement of their top six wingers in Valanchuskin Arturio Lackinen and Jonathan Duran for five total games Yeah. This season. One, you could even throw in Landisog and say they haven't had it in a long time.

I'm not going to do that because, although on that. On that note, I wish there was a way to know that you're in the good old days when it's happening. Because like that 20, 21 version of that line for years, just how, I mean, just the physicality, the forest, the size, the playmaking, the chemistry, all of it. I think we appreciated it at the time. Like, I think I ever acknowledged how cool it was. but obviously none of us knew that after the 2022 postseason that we were saying goodbye. And so not to get too sentimental here, but I do feel that. I'm not even a fan of the team, obviously.

I'm curious for what you think is next, because there's no way the avalanche are done here. They have about, by my count, 5.6 million in deadline cap space. I'm curious to see if they're going to try to upgrade the middle stat spot down the middle in particular and potentially even use his salary to really take a massive cut, or whether they're going to go something more measured in terms of like, obviously it's going to come with a big price, but less future commitment in a Brock Nelson or some sort of a center to give them a bit more juice than they've gotten from that 2C.

There's clearly something coming down here. And that's why I think even if you're underwhelmed by the return, and I think that's fair, although there's a lot of context for why that's the case, it's not really as simple as like can natius replace miko rantingon it's can whatever this team gets to buy the trade deadline give them a better chance to compete than the roster they previously had i think that's the question it's not as simple as like obviously rantanin is a more productive and better player regardless of situation than martin jess but it's obviously i think that's overly simplistic to view it that way yeah and and i mean this avs team

team, they still have two second round picks. They have five plus... Yeah, 5.6. In cap space. And, you know, they've still got Callum Ritchie if they wanted to play that chip. They have their 2026. Yeah. And they're 2026 first, right?

So they can... I think they can still swim in just about any pool they decide to, right? Which is why I think not taking Kotkeny amy's deal, by the way, as was first reported, is a big win here in perception for me, like not locking yourself into 4.8 with him. is a big selling point for me because it provides flexibility. I wish maybe the Hurricanes just would have walked away and done the Canucks deal instead.

But I'd like to steal a lot more if it included Jackson Blake or someone on the ELC that I think legitimately had offensive juice. I know you like Drag Dury. He makes a little bit more more. And I think his ceiling is a bit more cap. But you see what I'm saying, though.

They keep acquiring these guys that we think are capped offensively and it turns out there's another gear that they're able to get out of them. I mean, that is their MO. It is. But if this was, Natchez and Jackson Blake, I'd feel quite different.

Oh, for sure. But I mean, Jackson Blake's actually sick. Yeah. Like, Jackson Blake's so sick. The thing is, though, is I'm holding, I've been holding jewelry stock for a long time, and I'm not selling now. I'm not selling now that he's going to, uh, to an avs system that has tended to get more out of this exact, uh, sort of variety of player, yeah, skill set.

That, this exact profile. We got to get to Chicago before we close. One more note. Quick note. Actually, a couple, but quick one speed on. I'm so excited. Marty Naches at his debut plays 25-07, which I think was already a career high, just hilarious because he was so capped at 1718 per game.

I think you could even see the cross-ice passing, looking for the backdoor defenseman, like him sliding it over to Kail McCar and those sets is going to be so beautiful. Him just galloping downhill with Nathan McKinnon is incredibly exciting. I'm curious, maybe he might be the answer to the 2C question of a very. I know there's a lot of defensive concerns there when he plays, but man, like if you surround him with, let's say, Netsuchushkin and Lekinen, all of a sudden, I'm much less concerned about that. And I think that's an intriguing fit. On the power play, we saw some of this in the debut, the handedness. Him and McKar, and McKinnon both being the same side and not really knowing, like they're using NACIS at the goal line, then interchanging a little bit, putting McKinnon in that front, kind of not figuring out. out how that's going to work. You lose Rantonins one time, obviously. You lose him shortening up on his stick and doing that wedge shot around the net. Now Colorado's powerplay suck this year inexplicably. I think they're like 20th in the league in efficiency. So it's not like you're

dealing from like, oh no, their power plays in a crater. It's like, it's probably going to be better regardless just because there's too much talent here. But I think all that stuff is interesting. If anything, final point, I promise. Then we'll get to Chicago. You're excited about Nate Natchez in Colorado. Well, I spoke about, I spoke about this. And a, recent Aves deep dive. For whatever reason, Nathan McKinnon this year decided he was going to stop shooting the puck. And like his shot rates plummeted to as low as they've been since like 2017 before he blew up offensively. And in that debut, you saw him 11 attempts, eight shots on goal, which he had done, he had gone to double digits and shot attempts twice in his previous 25 games.

Yeah. And Nate just is just a more willing facilitator, I think, and passer. And I just want to see Nathan McKinnon being more aggressive in shooting the puck. I don't know if he was deferring too much to Miko Ranton or what his agenda was. Please stay. Please stay, man. I just feel like he's, I feel like there's another layer here. Obviously, he's amongst league leaders in scoring and it's ridiculous. But I just, from that angle, I want to see that. Blackhawks. So I think the criticism of the Blackhawks relies on this notion that Taylor Hall would have netted more than a third rounder if they'd retained 50% at the deadline. And he's on pace for 41 points across 82 games.

We know that he's dealt with a ton of injury issues. I don't know. Like, I don't know that he was, I mean, what did, Jason Zucker with the full freight, got a fifth last year. Like, Taylor Hall's now, I think, viewed as and producing as a middle six guy. A middle six guy. Those are mid-round pick guys if you retain half their salary, right? effectively the Blackhawks in my view got paid roughly a fair amount and saved more money

doing it this way like I just I get the frustration with Davidson's scorched earth rebuild I get the frustration with them not being a more fun team in general but I just don't see how this doesn't make sense for them overall it's just just their third retention. And so they've limited themselves because I think Connor Murphy's hurt now, but if he came back, Jason Dickinson, brokering as a third party, I just think there were more avenues.

Yeah, but those guys aren't, those guys have term. Well, an extra year, but at half price, I think the market opens up. Are you getting more than a third if you retain half of Alec Martinez? No. Like, you can just take money back if you're trading Pat Maroon or Ryan Donato. You know, like there's, not enough expiring guys that are not going to have value.

No one's trading for T.J. Brody, whether you retain half or not. I just don't like tying up your third retention slot on this deal at this point. I just, I feel like, I get it. It's their 2025 third, which is essentially. Sorry, and what's their other retention slot? They have McCabe. They have Rantanin. And they, for some reason, like, took Bailey off of, off of the Islander's hands.

But that's, but that's a lot of. buyout. I think they're fine. I think they have one more. Okay. So I think they still have a retention slot, but also I think they can spend it. Both McCabe and Ranton's retentions are done after this year. I just think we're all dunking on the Blackhawks because they've done a miserable job.

I just don't think that this is indicative of it. Well, they clearly haven't leveraged the full capacity of their space to improve their outlook. But for me, that's more like they let Vancouver off the mat too easily. Yeah, I mean, of course. Yeah. As opposed to, like, that to me was a poor trade. This to me is just like, they get the fair return, they save money for longer in a lost season, and they actually net a third for, like, if you wait a month to try and trade Taylor Hall closer to the deadline and he gets hurt, you're done.

Well, and their third is essentially equivalent to a second from a contender in a different trade. Totally. Right? Yeah. I think that's fair. It's sad because I do think... It also, yeah. Taylor Hall is at a different stage of his career, obviously.

I think that, like, you watched it in that debut, he's playing with Kalkaniennambian and Svetchenikov, and I think that could be a very useful combination. Like, it's a useful player for them. But I was like, man, Taylor Hall, people are just still talking about him as if he's an impact player. And then I look and I'm like, Taylor Hall's six days younger than me.

And obviously coming off a torn ACL, but that just made me incredibly sad to reflect on. All right, I think that's all I got on this deal. We could probably spend another couple hours talking about it. We're going to have more opportunities, obviously, especially as we get closer to four nations, and there being fewer games than NHL schedule to talk about. I think we're going to have more opportunity.

More trade content? To go deep on stuff like this. But this was really fun. I'm really glad we got to do it. Obviously, check up Tom's work at the Athletic and Canucks Talk on the Sportsnet Radio Network. We'll be back here in a couple days with more of the PDO cast. We'll be back next Sunday, of course, with the next Sunday special. everyone enjoyed today's breakdown, and hopefully we get many more of these to come over

the next five or six weeks. Thank you for listening. Big trades. Big trades. Let's go. Thank you for listening to the HockeyPedioCat streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network.