The Hockey PDOcast - Breaking Down Teams With Interesting Underlying Profiles

Episode Date: December 4, 2024

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Jack Fraser to take a closer look under the hood at a handful of teams with interesting underlying profiles at this point of the season - including the Rangers, Devils, Lightning, Blue Jackets, Red Wings, and Avalanche. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Regressing to the mean since 2015, it's the Hockey P.D.O.cast with your host, Dmitri Filipovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEOCast. My name is Demetri Fulovich. And joining me is my good buddy, Jack, Frazier, Jack. What's going on, man? Not a lot. Outdoor rings are up and again. So it's the right time we're here. Very exciting. Also, Patrick Linae made his season debut for the Habs last night as well. And people think that you are Patrick Lainay based on your Twitter avatar. So it's a, it's a big week for you here um here's a plan for today's show we are going to run through i've got a list of about six or seven teams that i thought were particularly notable from sort of a interesting underlying statistical profile both for good and bad reasons and we're going to break

them down get into why we find them interesting and kind of what it means and why some of these things are happening uh we're going to use a variation of numbers stuff that you certainly have in our posting all the time some sport logic data uh, other good stuff and we're going to put it all together a neat little package for everyone. Let's start with the New York Rangers. We're 1 and 6 in their last seven games. That only win being a home game against the Habs, where they

blew a 3-1 lead late in the third period and then had to score in the final minute to salvage it. They recently just got trucked at home by the Devils in their most recent game. It was a 5-1 final watching that. I think in the first period there were at least three, four, maybe five, two-on-ones

or breakways for the Devils. Shusterkin kept it at 2-0 at the time. but it was just an onslaught similar to what we've been seeing from the Rangers defensively for a while now. And I want to talk to you a little bit about them because I think everyone is certainly by now familiar with the angst involved and the fact their play has been unacceptably bad. But every time I think we sort of reach rock bottom and it's like, all right, well, they're too good and too talented to keep playing this way. It feels like we go into even greater depths with their defensive despair. where how should we sort of, should we be recalibrating

our expectations for them, revisiting what we think this team can do this season? Or are you still at the point where we have enough of a track record with them that these seven to ten games of defensive struggles, at least to this degree, are maybe more of a blip in the radar? I don't know.

I remember when they started this kind of difficult run. And I think Rangers fans, to their credit, were pretty quick to notice that things were falling apart. because like I remember they were talking about oh this team is completely cooked like we have to tear it down and everything and they were still like 12 5 and 3 or whatever since then though

I mean it's it's honestly gotten tough because it would be one thing if this was a situation where it was like oh their depth players are struggling you know or you know the hugs aren't going in PDO blah blah blah but the players that are struggling

is making me a little bit more concerned about it because that would point to kind of these difficult to fix structural issues in terms of how the lineup is constructed, how it's built moving forward, guys who you can't really move. You know, I mean, like you look at their numbers,

especially since like November 1st, you know, Ryan Lingren, uh, DeAndre Miller, Jacob Truba, all below a 40% expected goal share. Like,

and, and some of them well below that, like the goal share is also terrible. Sabanajad has been absolutely abysmal. this season and he's always been a guy who's been kind of, you know, the analytics or in terms of like the expected numbers have never been super, super high on him even when he was kind of considered a start player in this league. But I think both the numbers and the I test have completely soured on him. And, you know, these are fundamental parts of how this team is built and not especially movable. So it might be too quick to panic and say, oh, like this team's run of any kind of success is over and it wouldn't surprise me completely to see. So it might be too quick to panic and say, oh, like, this team's run of any kind of success is over. And it wouldn't surprise me completely to. see them turn it around, but it's the kind of struggle that makes me more concerned than if bucks just aren't going in or if depth players of the bottom of the lineup or injuries or things like that are taking place. Yeah, there's been 536 NHLers this season with at least 200,

5-on-5 minutes played. If you sort by most shots allowed per 60 while they're on the ice, first is Mika Zabinajat at 40.3 shots against per hour, then can't file on the ducks at 39, Chris Kreider 38.7, Jacob Trooper 36.2, obviously those most two recent ones got a lot of attention for being in the trade rumors and kind of stemming from that report that the Rangers were at least entertaining stuff. But for me, and I've spoken about this over the past week or so, but I think it's worth reiterating, the Zabinajad one is sort of the most terrifying for me. He's got 12, 5-on-5 goals in the past 12-21 games he's played since the start of last regular season. They've been outscored 19 to 10 in his 5-on-5 minutes. he's shooting the puck at 515 as often as defensive defensemen like Kevin Ball and Zach Bogosian this season. And obviously he's got a lot of special teams utility. And he's a guy who, as you noted, can outscore his expected totals because of that shot, especially on the powerplay. And so there's ways for him to contribute here. But considering how much they still have invested in him for the next three years and how important he is to his team, I think that's why I am

getting concerned because as you astutely noted earlier, it's the one, the players who are veteran players who are supposed to theoretically at least play key roles on this team and are being compensated as such that are the ones sort of dragging everything down. And those are the players who for all the talk about the Rangers wanting to mix things up and make a trade. And it seems like with each of these passing losses, they're probably more likely to make a reactionary panic trade. I'm just not sure how much wiggle room there really is considering the no trade protections and the finances involved to actually. meaningfully change what's kind of dragging this team down right now. Yeah, like these are load-bearing players. And, you know, like you said, like Zabandad, even when he wasn't blowing us away in terms of,

you know, his expectable differentials or anything, you could at least point to things like his distant shooting and, you know, some, you know, kind of bonus playmaking and stuff like that. And at the very least, kind of, you know, at least recently, like his defensive numbers were generally solid enough. So you could kind of rationalize this like, well, maybe if the expected goal four numbers aren't capturing everything that he's doing, at least he's not giving up too much. But like you said, that's absolutely collapse this year. And you're left with, you know, other than maybe the power play, not really a lot to justify. And that's why we're suddenly hearing people murmuring about, you know, J.T. Miller and stuff like that. Like if this Rangers team has to

acquire a first or second line center, then that makes it a lot more difficult to imagine them as being able to keep contending in this window, which, you know, you look at Adam Fox, who despite everything, you know, except for when he's, you know, tied to Ryan Lingren around his ankle, is still, you know, putting up excellent numbers, especially on the offensive side of things. E. Gior Schisturkin playing superb hockey as well. Like, these are foundational pieces that should be complementing, you know, the forward pieces on the lineup that would make them a legit. contender and it has made them a legit contender the past couple years. But like they're going to have to fundamentally work out what's going to happen here.

And I don't know if something like trading Chris Kreider or going down the Jacob Truba Road for the 50th time where it just becomes a drama of will he wave, will he not wave, you know, and maybe there's something to be said. Hopefully they can find some kind of combination on D that that works properly. If they could maybe acquire Adam Fox, a partner. that they're willing to play with him long term. If they don't think that Kandre Miller's the guy, then that might go somewhere.

But, you know, it's just, it's hard to figure out kind of which tectonic plays you can move around on this pretty locked in roster to make room. And, you know, Benarin has been strong so far this season, but he hasn't been, you know, MVP candidate strong like he was last year. And I think we're seeing how much they kind of needed that.

Because, you know, last year, you kind of had that Panarin line. with Lafranier and with Trocheck, all of them just kind of firing high danger passes at each other 50 times a game, scoring piles of goals at five on five, let alone the power play. And then you kind of had a low event bottom six, but one that was kind of getting the job done. And that was enough last year. But when the bottoms fallen off defensively and you don't have kind of a heart trophy level Panarin,

then suddenly things get a lot more questionable. I think the depths of which they fall in defensively are staggering to me. because they're generally numbers we see from the Anaheim ducks of the world right now are sort of these young rebuilding teams where they're just getting pummeled every night. And it's very strange to see a team of this stature beat quite this bad. Not that they were necessarily, you know, amazing defensively in the past, but I thought they were good enough, certainly to get by. And you look now, it's like, all right, the 30th and expected goals against.

They're 31st and shots allowed. They're 32nd, according to Spore Logic, in slot shots allowed. I believe Igor Shostrican has faced 150. 50 inner slot shots in just 18 games this season, which is the most in the league. And it kind of reached this boiling point last game that Devils game I referenced, where during the intermission, Steve Aliquette, who is on their local broadcast and whose work I generally like. And I think his work in particular with ClearSight Analytics is something that whenever I have Kevin Woodley on, we reference.

And I think that's been really important and revolutionary for our ability to analyze and quantify goalie play a little bit more. But like he had this, as I'm sure everyone listening to see him by now, that's just completely misplaced rant that was directed at Jack Hughes for his shot selection on one of those odd man rushes that I referenced. And I really feel like just watching that, it's like the only person the Rangers should have been mad at is themselves in that moment because the reason Jack Hughes had the time and space to slow down and try, if you even want to describe it as a trick shot, I thought it was a legitimate chance to score against arguably the best goalie in the league is because their

transition D is just pathetic at this point. Like there's no one's getting back on time. And so you're able to just kind of coast in and then get whatever look you want and the 31st in rush chances allowed as well they're giving up about eight of those per game and for some context i think the oilers and the stars are the only two teams in the league right now that are generating we're averaging eight rush chances per game so they're essentially the rangers are making look every opponent they play they're making them look like the oilers offensively and so all of it is a mess right now i think we'll you know just kind of spinning it ahead and this can be the last note of the rangers and then we can move on to other teams.

I noticed that Dom Lustrition at the athletic has them all the way down to 59% playoff odds, which is kind of remarkable considering where they were at the start of the year. And it makes sense

because you look at the competition as well and I expect them to be better than these teams moving forward. But in the metro right now, not only is the gap increasingly growing every day between them and the likes of the hurricanes and the capitals

and devils in their own division, but all of a sudden, they've got 27 points in 24 games, the flyers of 20s, and 25. Columbus has 25 and 24. And even your Pittsburgh Penguins are up to 26 in 27 games. And so now all of a sudden they're stuck in this entirely different tier in their own division than I thought they would have been at at this point. And so all of it is just one big mess right now. Yeah. Well, their underlying numbers were really good in the first month of the season.

Like it really looked like a new New York Rangers, but that third line playing is insanely well as it has been. it's completely falling apart, unfortunately, in the past month, along with everybody else. But yeah, like the sport logic added the expected goals plus minus per game in the second month of the season, 31st in the league, only Chicago worst, which is not where it seemed like the New York Rangers and certainly not one that's built like the New York Rangers should be anywhere near. Let's transition to talk about the Devils because we just referenced them in that most recent game they played against the Rangers. It's kind of cruel to especially start with talking up their defensive improvement in their environment there.

after what we just said about the Rangers, although I'm sure the devil's sickos are going to enjoy this, but I think their defensive improvement this year, where last year there were 27th and 21st and expected goals against 23rd, in inner slot shots allowed. You look now and they're sixth, fourth, and eighth in those respective categories. And we can break this down any number of ways. We can talk about certainly the defense pair in terms of Siegantzoller

and Jonathan Kovicevich, what they've done in their top six, especially in terms of the combinations they've stumbled upon, but you watch this team now, and they obviously still have the offensive Jews, and they can pile up rush chances, and their power play is first in the league. But for me, the story here is the market improvement we've actually seen at the other end of the ice,

and how that's been driving some of their success most recently. Yeah, I mean, this is what this New Jersey Devils team should look like. Like, we were shocked last year at how poor they looked, how their defense fell apart. You know, there were other things going on. But, like, you look at their numbers this year. Everybody is in the right spot. like everybody in terms of, you know, like especially the defensive results,

like there isn't anybody who's lagging behind that league average mark, whereas last year it was just a mess where everybody was playing, you know, different types of games. The defense pairs are a huge one for me, you know, in terms of, you know, they've kind of landed on these three very clear defensive pairs and they are doing exactly what they're meant to be doing. Like you have the Douggy Hamilton, Brendan Dillon pair, which is just dominating offensively, you know,

two players who I think have turned out to be. very complimentary. And then, you know, the addition to the lineup, Brett Pesci, there was a lot of skepticism about that ad. You know, I think there was some perception, especially in the Carolina market, that was quite negative about him, some of the underlying numbers last year, especially with the stats that the Corrish Nader was tracking, you know, some on-ice micro stats were showing that the hurricanes were giving a practically no slot passes against when he was on the ice.

Something that, you know, has been, was something that. the devil's massively struggled with last season. Him and Luke Hughes have put up excellent two-way results together. And then, like you alluded to Kovicevich and Sikenthaler. It's great to see Saganthal are kind of snapping back into how well we saw him play back in 20203, you know, reasserting himself, I think, as one of the great defensive defensemen in the league. And the result of that is just a very well-balanced defensive group and Blue Line, which is certainly not something that they could have boasted last year.

Certainly not. And the forwards, as I mentioned, they recently, or a handful of games ago, put Stefan Nason up with his shear and Meyer in the top line in the 90 minutes. They've played a 5-15 since high danger chances are 34 to 11 for the devils, and they control 65% of the expected goals. I think Nason is one of the coolest stories in the league this season. I guess maybe it's flying under the radar because he already played a pretty significant role for the hurricanes the past couple of years, particularly on the power play.

But this guy is going to be 32 this season. He finally gets a three-year deal from the Devils this summer. And you look up now, it's like, all right, he's got 21 primary points in 28 games. He's playing an integral on that first rated power play in the league. And now on their top line, 5-on-5 as well. And he's just been phenomenal for them. I've got this note from our pal Pixies in the Discord. And I wanted to shout him out because he brought my attention to it.

Because I've noticed certainly the Jack Hughes has been playing really. well lately and has been churning out the points. But you look in the last 10 games he's played, he's been on the ice for 20 goals for all situations and zero goals against in that time, which is just remarkable in my opinion. Past 14 games

28 to 2 in that category. And I think Dom wrote about this in a recent piece for the athletic as well, but he's never going to necessarily, or at least in the short term, be relied on defensively to take on the tough matchups and

go against the other team's top senator and be out there when they're trying to preserve a lead because they have Nico Hissier and he's so good at that and he's right atop of the Selke conversation himself. But I have noticed that, you know, Sheldon Keefe has been relying on him much more maybe than coaches were in the past in some of these high leverage moments defensively,

whether it's kind of at the end of a PK or if they just need to kill a few seconds or if they are preserving a lead late. And I feel like he's to go along with the scoring and all the rush offense has taken a bit a stride there as well. And I think that makes sense. I want to give credit to him as a player, certainly, but also the coach because Cheltenham Keith's a guy who in Toronto, I think, was right there when guys like Mitch Martner and Austin Matthews certainly took a big leap defensively

themselves as young forwards. And so now we're sort of seeing that from this Devils team as well. And so it feels like it's all kind of neatly coalescing right now for them. Yeah, yeah. And for Hughes, it's kind of a snap back, right? Because he, after coming into the league and being extremely poor defensively, you know, as a turnover machine really kind of looked lost. He would always kind of, you know, end up trying to push out of the zone. He really built himself up a very strong, at least by kind of star forward standards, especially one who rutches the puck as much as he does, level where he was a very reliable scoring chance depressor, one of the best puck thieves in the NHL, very active in the defensive zone.

Obviously, we know what he's capable of as a transitional player. last year that slipped, I think, and obviously, you know, a lot of New Jersey Devils slipped in terms of their defensive results. Namely, Nico Hesier is probably the biggest example of a player who kind of struggled to put up solid defensive numbers last year. But I mean, like you alluded to, like he has some of the best defensive numbers on the team. He's right back where he should be. And, you know, he's a play-driving player in a true sense, not only in the way that he touches the puck more than almost any other player in the league and has it in the offensive zone. But he really kind of is all over the ice and tilts the ice more than, I think,

almost any player in the NHL. So it's, it's nice to see him kind of responding to that hiccup last year and getting, I think, back on track in terms of his two-way game because he's shown flashes previously of being, you know, not quite in that sulky level conversation. And certainly with he's here around, there's never going to be a reason for him to be taking on those matchups or, you know, the really heavy lead protecting time. But I think he's shown that he's capable of it. And I'm glad to see him put in a position to succeed.

Yeah, the devils are up to 79 and 2 in the year. Nine of those 17 wins are by three or more goals. I believe they're fifth or up to fifth in terms of Stanley Cup odds. So yeah, they're looking really good right now. We have time for one more team before we go to break here. And I want to talk quickly about the Tampa Bay Lightning because you put out this chart recently, kind of breaking down the season into the first two months and then reflecting which teams have improved in terms of expected goal differential, which teams have

regressed or come down a little bit. And I noticed the lightning near the top of of improvers. And when we're having this conversation about the most interesting team statistically so far this year, I did want to note, like I was watching one of their games recently and they had this whole thing on the broadcast about how through the first 20 or so games, no team had a tougher strength of schedule to start the year by opponent point percentage than them. And then you look up And it's like, all right, well, that's because they've pretty much played all of the top West teams, the two times there are a lot of this season. They've already played Winnipeg twice, Colorado twice, and Minnesota twice. And then they've played Washington, New Jersey, and Toronto twice as well so far.

And moving forward, that schedule gets a lot easier. Another thing that I find notable about them is, like, they've played 23 games so far, which are the fewest in the league. I think the devils by comparison have played the 27 or 28 games. But they've also had these weird quirks where it's like they had their biweek. early in November. Now, right now, they're in the middle of this stretch where they're off for four or five days. All that's going to eventually sort of even out, of course, as every team plays the same number of games. But I just find them a really interesting team because it's been so stop and start this season. And I think they've already shown massive highs in some of these games individually and also

lows in terms of blowing leads and giving up goals and bunches. But I do find that the steps they made this offseason in terms of revamping their roster and retooling on the fly and trying to get a bit younger and cheaper and faster have been reflected on the ice. They've certainly gotten better in terms of their defensive metrics. The offense is always going to be there. I'll be at a slow start for the power play

as they try to adjust to life without Stamco's, but when you have Kuturov in point, you're going to find a way to manufacture goals. And so they still have a few weak links in the lineup that I'd like to see them address between now and the deadline, but I do feel like in just watching them and following their trek through the start of the year,

that I feel like they are on the right path. Yeah, I totally agree. And obviously, I think there was reason for some skepticism in the off season. I supported the decision to move on from Stamco's as difficult as it was. And, you know, I'm a huge fan of Jake Gensel. But, you know, you looked at the rest of the lineup. There was some question marks about how it was all going to fit together. They obviously made that really gutsy trade moving Sergachev out.

But, I mean, the lineup is basically playing exactly. how you would want it to play. You know, I think Gensel, point Kutrov are finding their footing. I think it's obviously a change, slotting somebody in that isn't Stamcoast there. But, you know, Gensel's always going to figure it out because he's one of the smartest players in the league. The Sorrelli, Brandon Hagel, whoever line, like, you can just plug anybody with those two players. I mean, there's so talented two-way players. You know, you have Hagel zooming around on the forecheck.

such a dangerous kind of multifaceted offensive player, which I think gets a bit lost because people would focus so naturally on how good he is as kind of a forechecker and stuff. But he's not only a great score. He's an excellent passer. He really gives space for Sorrelli to be kind of that complimentary player. And then they've proven really easy to play with. Like you look at all their combinations of who the third player on that line has been, all have been driving play at an exceptional rate.

So you have a kind of plug and play second line like that. That's going to work out really well for you. Add in the fact that their bottom six, you know, the guys like Nick Paul, Glenn Denning, Isamont, Gergensons, they're doing what you want them to do, which is nothing. Like they're just, they're low event, they're low maintenance. They're helping the team out defensively. You know, and I think similar stuff with their defense as well. Obviously, I think there are points in their lineup that they're going to have to,

address and they're going to want to address through trades. But the most important thing for me, honestly, is that they just, they still look like a cup contender. Even after all the attrition of what they've gone through on that roster with the cap casualties, they're playing like a contender and they're looking like they're supposed to be looking, which is I think hugely encouraging to me just based on,

you know, maybe temperate expectations a lot of people had for them entering the season with this new look roster. Yeah, offensively, their fourth and expected goals generated defensively, their 10th and expected goals allowed and the list of teams that are in the top 10 at both ends is pretty minimal and the teams that are are generally perceived to be as cup contenders the haiglesorelli combo i can't speak enough about it but 275-15 minutes high danger chances are 80 to 36 for tampa bay in that time

and as you said whoever they play there is going to have a great time just because they always work hard and have the puck seemingly from that lineup construction perspective i think that's what intrigues me here in terms of the room to grow because they have that top line that is going to cook in the offensive zone. They've got this second line, which is a buzzsaw in the neutral zone, although you can certainly play them in all situations. And then they have that Glenn Dan and Gergenson's pair who are so good at soaking up defensive zone starts and just making sure nothing happens at either end and they can live with that. The third line is what they're going to need to address particularly on the wing because I do feel like Connor Geeky, I'm very intrigued by his game.

I think he's a legitimately good player already, but they need to get him a bit more help on the wings because whether it's Cam Atkinson or whatever rotating cast they've had there, that's not good enough. If they're going to be treated as a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, the good thing is that that's theoretically the most feasible position to add in season for cheap.

It's like, all right, let's just add hopefully a right shot so that you can potentially play on the power play, but someone who can just hold their own in some of these bottom six wing minutes. And so I'm looking for that from them, but I do, I have really enjoyed watching them play, and I find that their profile is really starting to kind of shape up and look like a very promising one. Let's take our break here, Jack.

Although, I was just going to say, I don't know if Tampa Bay Lightning, bottom six, deadline acquisition and cheap really work out together, but hopefully somebody's available for three first-run picks with massive retention. That's true. Cheap in terms of financial demands, maybe not in terms of acquisition cost.

Let's take our break here. And then when we come back, we'll jump right back in it. I've got a few more teams that I want to get to. And then if we have time at the end, we'll take a couple of mailbag questions as well. You're listening to the Hockey Ptio cast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. Hey, it's Big Nazar. Have your say and join me on the People's Show with big takes and even bigger bets. Weekdays 3 to 4 on Sportsnet 650 or wherever you get your podcast.

We're back here on the HockeyPedio cast joined by Jack Fraser today. We're working through some teams that we find interesting in terms of their statistical profiles. We've done the Rangers, the Devils, and the Lightning so far. I've got four more teams here on my list. They're the avalanche, the Oilers, the Red Wings, and the Blue Jackets. You're the guest. I'll let you pick which one you're feeling most passionate about out of those four. Let's start with the Columbus Blue Jackets. Let's do it. So their offensive improvement to me is notable. Some of this is certainly shooting percentage driven last night in Calgary, notwithstanding where I think they finished with 16 shots on goal,

got shut out by the flames. Before the years, still even with that. They're eighth in the league in goals per 60. At 5 on 5 specifically, only the capitals are scoring more frequently than them. And you look a little bit beneath the hood at their sport logic profile. It's like, all right, they're 21st and expected goals, which isn't necessarily amazing, but they were 30th in that category last year. Their third and shots generated, they were 26.

They were 26. And they were 26 last year there as well. And a lot of this is certainly being driven at the top of the lineup. And I think that's a cool storyline here as well because the combination of Monahan and Marchenko all season earlier was with Chinnikov. Now with Barankov coming back, he's been playing with them is absolutely just crushing the opposition in their minutes. And then when they mix in Zach Wrenzky and the blue line with that forward line as well, their numbers are just off the charts. And I've been really enjoying the play from them specifically, but also now with Ken Johnson coming back and looking like the prospect we were sort of excited about a couple of. couple of years ago. There's a lot happening here in Columbus. And I think I'm excited to hear your

thoughts on them because certainly they've been catching my eye recently. Yeah, I had practically no expectations for the mentor during the season. I think for understandable reasons, you know, the top of their lineup didn't look like it was bound to score very many goals. The goaltitting had been an issue to in the past. They had some interesting pieces on defense. But, you know, there's only so much as we found out from previous Jackets, teams that a starsteaded defense can get them. Which is why I've been so encouraged by

what we've seen from Sean Monaghan, especially, where, you know, this isn't just the case of, you know, he's, is like on a shooting percentage is sky high or something like that. I mean, he's right on the top of the league in terms of expected goals for F5 on 5, right up there with Connor McMichael. So, you know, if you had asked

anybody who was going to be at the top of the league, I would have picked a couple Carolina Hurricanes and not Connor McMichael and Sean Monaghan. Marchenko, obviously, like you said, you know, that combo has been exceptional and in a way that I don't think we necessarily could have expected. And I think if you had said, oh, this team is going to take the next step or at least a step forward in their rebuild. And, you know, you would have expected that kind of the offensive players that would be driving that would have been the guys like Sillinger and Fantilli,

but they've kind of unexpectedly been, you know, especially Fantilli, struggling quite a bit to create offense, which is kind of the counter story to how well that top of the lineup with Monaghan and Marchango have done, where Fantilli had difficult on ice numbers last year. I think some interesting microstats. I, you know, I'm not privy to any microstats of his this season.

and I'm not aware of them at least. But he is kind of near the bottom of the league in terms of expected goals for when he's on the ice. I'd be kind of interested to see where that lands by the end of the year. I don't think I've heard very little talk about Fantilli this year. I think mostly because the story in Columbus, you know, at least in terms of what they've been able to do on the ice, has revolved so much around Werenski and Monaghan. But that's kind of an interesting case that I'm looking forward to following throughout the year. It's just, you know, because we know what Fantili.

is capable of. We know what he at least did, if not in terms of impacts last year, at least in terms of what he was doing on the ice strictly. You know, I just, if he's a player that can take kind of another step, not only obviously through the rest of the season, but moving forward, I think having, you know, this kind of new unexpected core with Monaghan and Marchenko and Chinochov and all them. And of course, Zach S and Reese, whose offensive numbers were predicted by me for almost five years now. You know, it makes it a lot more encouraging to think about how this team is going to look moving forward than it has been for a couple of years.

Yeah, Monahan and Marchenko, 3005-15 minutes together. They're up 22 to 8 in that time. 60% of the shots, 62% I expect the goals in the 100 minutes of Broncos played since he returned. They're up to 10 to 2 in those minutes. I want to give a lot of Lovirto Werenzki as well, who is finally fully healthy and has been playing remarkably well and driving a lot of these results as well. I think he's pretty clearly, and I think the Beni-Marker reflects this. has cemented himself, at least for a time being, as the third guy in that Norris conversation up top with Hughes and McCar. He's leading the league in Ice Time. He's playing over 26 per game. He's tied with McCar for most goals by a defenseman with eight.

His 16 primary assists are behind just McCar and Fox, 26 points behind only McCar and Hughes of the position, and they're up 27 to 14 in his 5-15 minutes. So, yeah, the top of that lineup for Columbus has been really fun and playing a very sort of viewer-friendly, offensive style. And so I think that's a massive development for them based on where they were in past seasons and even as recently as the end of last year. Let's talk about the Red Wings. They're next on my list. I'm going to pick them out of the remaining teams we have. And I want to preface this conversation by saying how genuinely unfathomable it is to me to look this up this morning in my preparation and notice that the Pittsburgh Penguins in the year 2024 are currently ahead of both the Red Wings and then the Sabres in the center. in point percentage after all the talk heading into the season for seemingly the 10 straight

year about how this is going to be finally the season that some of these young Atlantic division teams take that next step knock off some of these older sort of incumbents in the east and then sure enough they're all near the bottom again so the red wings offensively 25th and five in goals 28th and expected goals 31st in shots 28th in slot shots and the 31st in 5-15 goals specifically which 36 of them. The only thing really keeping them afloat to the point they are is the power play that's ranked fifth, I believe, in goals per hour. And I do have a few sort of encouraging or promising developments from them this season that we can include here in terms of the young players showing legitimate signs of improvement and sort of living up on their draft capital. And so

I think that is an important distinction for the Red Wings this year compared to maybe previous ones, but at the same time, just watching the offensive environment that they have there right now, I can't really wrap my head around how it's still so bleak at this point. Yeah, I mean, there's no way around it. They are a terrible offensive team at five on five. And they're not supposed to be. They are supposed to have all kinds of skill that's been built throughout this lineup for the past couple years as they've, you know, they decided to, I think, accelerate things a little

bit, you know, not kind of try to launch themselves into cup contention, but put themselves into the race. It obviously worked last year to a varying degree. But, you know, I think with how it's stagnated and taking a step back this season, like, if you look at their, like, the player level on ice numbers, there's so much in common with what we were seeing last year from them. I mean, last year, it was covered up a bit by those very hot stretches where they were shooting extremely well. You know, there was some type of signal that maybe there was a little bit that wasn't being captured in the on-ice numbers, but I think not nearly as much as people were optimistically

hoping for early in the winter. And then, of course, they fell apart down the stretch. And I think we've seen that continuous, you know, it turned out that the real Red Wings was the one that kind of was falling apart down the stretch, albeit, of course, with, you know, some better goaltending that we've seen from them this season, obviously, with Cantell. But yeah, I mean, it's just discouraging. I mean, you look last year and this year alike, there's really just nobody above average and expected goals four per 60, you know, on the ice.

There's some players who have had some decent defensive results. There's some players who really haven't. You know, one player who I would say that I'm actually quite disappointed by the results so far this season would be Patrick Kane at five on five, just because it actually did kind of seem like he had taken a very positive step after the hip surgery last year. you know, he's, you know, last on the team, both in terms of the on-ice, offensive and defensive results. You know, the good news, like you alluded to, is that the players who are supposed to be their best players, like Raymond and Larkin and DeBrinke,

offensively, and then, you know, on the defense, obviously, I'm sure we'll talk about Edvinson, have been, but just as a team, it's just, you know, like you said, they're just, they're not able to create offense. And this is not a team, especially at this stage in their division. development that should be in that spot. So I don't know that they're going to be in a position to pick, you know, top three in this coming draft. But I would say that this was a, if not make or break here, at least kind of a very

decisive one in terms of evaluating how well putting together this team has been going. And the results, I would say, are quite disappointing. Yeah, their bottom seven or eight in pretty much every single performance indicator at both ends of the ice, which is really hard to fathom. Now, what I will say is, I think what we've seen from Edvinson's inclusion in the lineup here, and then particularly the impact he's had on both sider and finally freeing sider from the shackles he had with Ben Chirot in the past and seeing the success they've had a five-on-five in their minutes, I think is huge moving forward. Lucas Raymond, who obviously finished last year remarkably well, had only one goal in his first 15 games. He scored eight in ten goals since, and him in the slot is automatic at this point.

And so I think that's encouraging. And then I will say as well, you know, they brought up Marco Casper and now he's centering the third line and they're playing him with Jonathan Berger and other player in the past. They were for whatever reason reluctant to give full-time usage to. And those guys have looked perfectly fine to my eye as well in the third line. I think Casper in particular, whether it's on the power play or a 5-15 looks like a real player and like an actual contributor.

And so I think what I was hard on them about in the past was trying to fast track this. and then that coming at the expense of roster spots and valuable developmental minutes for some of these young guys. And so now at least we're seeing them get that. And they're actually the ones who are keeping them alive and afloat in a lot of these games. And I think that's exciting. But then that almost makes you lament all the other stuff

and the sort of path we took to getting here. So if these guys can keep sort of doing this, at least that'll provide some sort of hope. You look at their schedule upcoming and they're playing Ottawa, they're playing Buffalo. They're playing Philly a couple times. They're playing Pittsburgh. they're playing a lot of the direct competitors they have in the east for where they're at right now.

So they do have an opportunity to make a bit of ground here before we end the year. But at the same time, I just need to see some signs of life, I think especially offensively for me, because it's so bizarre that the power play is as efficient as it is. Once again, it really was last year as well. But at 515, other than these brief moments of excellence from Raymond in the slot, it's just really hard for them to muster anything really resembling like a punch that they can throw at the opposition on to give a night. Yeah.

And like you, you know, if you look at, you know, if we're going to take a look at the players who are below average, both offensively and defensively when it comes to their on ice expected goal results, there's four of them. It's Teresenko, Cop, Comfer, and Kane, you know, for obviously pro scouting acquisitions that they've made in the past couple of seasons. Yeah. And, you know, you look at the players who are doing well, for the most parts, it's the guys that they've either drafted or that were already.

on the roster to begin with. Yeah, and I mean, honestly, I can't imagine that they wouldn't look at some kind of coaching change at some point in the next little bit if this keeps up, you know, if only because, you know, like, what kind of damage are you potentially doing to your rebuild? Just hoping that Lawn is going to end up being the guy long term. Certainly, you know, I know that I'm not alone. and I'm sure a lot of Red Writwings fans feel the same way about that. But it does seem like there's untapped potential on this roster,

not only in terms of the young players, but in terms of the veterans playing a little bit better as well. And when you look at a roster where everybody is in that really low on, low down offensive place, that does beg the question of what's happening on a team level and maybe a coaching change is the only way to really address that. Yeah, especially, I mean, obviously it's over now, but I, at the time, as soon as the ruins fire, Jim Montgomery,

I was like, this is such an obvious coaching upgrade for them. And then you watch and the blues are showing signs of life offensively now since the coaching change. And Robert Thomas coming back certainly helps matters there. But yeah, I can't help but think what that would look like just to change something sort of structurally or systematically because if everyone is struggling this much, despite the fact that a lot of these players clearly have individual talents

that should just be better than the end result, that's what I keep coming back to as well. oilers are avalanche i'll let you pick we only have time for one of them oh uh let's go to the avalanche because i feel like we talk about the oilers at length every time i'm on here sure so it was a peak abs game on tuesday night in buffalo they go down four nothing georgiaf gives up four goals on eight shots in like 11 and a half minutes and then they proceed to play that sort of four-man group of mckinan rantin and leckman and mccarr in the mid-20s they pile up 41 shots as a team those four create three goals

They come back and win 5-4, and it's sort of more of the same, I guess. Like you look, they're only 14 and 12 on the season, which is 17th and point percentage. They certainly had a ton of injuries early on, although that does seem to be a recurring issue for them. I'm not sure what's going on there, but they felt like the most banged-up team in the league for a couple seasons now, and the goal suppression part of it. Obviously, the goaltending is almost unplayable at this point. Scott Wedgwood came in relief and shut the door.

I'm not sure that's really a long-term fit, although the bar they have. have to clear for an improvement is so low there. I'm not sure what they're going to do. They've been historically an organization. I know that they acquired Gru Bauer and then they acquired Kemper the year they won the cup, but they've sort of had this organizational philosophy of just not paying for goaltending. And it's going to be increasingly difficult, in my opinion, to just sit idly by and waste not only prime seasons for McKinn and MacKinn and Macar, which they're having right now,

but also with the uncertainty contractually for Miko Ranton and kind of what a cross. roads here this is for their abs as a whole. I'm not sure if they can justify just kind of continuing to go down this route because I wouldn't expect the results to really improve. I do think they have some defensive deficiencies, which are sort of accentuating the goaltending struggles, but ultimately at some point you just need to make routine saves and you look at some of the goals that they're giving up and they're just ones where it's like, all right, well, maybe it wasn't an ideal chance to give up, but the goalie probably should at least save a couple of these and they're just never getting those.

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, that's like the worst of this to be in as a team is when you have to go out and get a goalie because you're kind of damned if you do, damned if you don't in that case. Like it's just so hard to figure out who is actually going to work. I understand why they bet on Georgiev. You know, when we had our ranking at EPRank side at the outset of the season, the player ranking series, I did not participate in the goaltending portion because I don't know anything. about goalies. But there was, you know, a lot of talking with scouts and goalie coaches and stuff like that that went into, uh, Sean Javieros ranking there. And they all insisted on having Georgiev on that list and that top 15, uh, you know, pointing at these great fundamentals that he had. And, you know, that may be, but the results, I think, speak for themselves. Like once you have a goaltender who's unplayable, if you're trying to be a contending team that really, you know, like you, you have to move on. And, you know, I think the penguins are, have had that issue with Tristan Jarrett. It's just it's not easy to move a goal in.

It's not easy to find a goalie either. Like, it's hard to really envision a match in the net for the Colorado Avalanche that can stack up to, you know, a lot of the goaltenders that they're going to be playing in the playoffs, which makes things especially challenging, especially because, you know, I mean, the other issue that we had with the avalanche going into the season was their, you know, grab bag of. no name players that they were slotting into their forward group, um, who for the most part, I think, you know, they've played competent enough defensive hockey.

Uh, you know, Logan O'Connor is always reliable. Ivan, uh, has, has had, uh,

quite good results as well. One guy that I've been kind of disappointed by, so far this season has been Casey Middlestat. I know that he's producing fine. Um, but he's been kind of, you know, he's their weakest,

high minute forward in terms of, you know, both goals and expected goal results. Which, you know, for me, I kind of saw a lot of encouraging signs from him at the end of last season. And obviously, they did move on from, you know, a pretty important piece in Bowen Byron to get him. I still believe in middle stat. I really like his playmaking skill. But with how shallow their lineup is, I think that they are going to need him to really step up and be not only an okay second line center, but maybe even something more than that if they're going to compete,

especially if they're letting in as many goals as they are just due to their goaltending. Yeah, I mean, they're getting like, what, 857 goaltending or something this season? Now they're- Yeah, they're getting like expansion senators level goal-theting, I believe. Yeah, I mean, they're 19th and expected goals

against Gornosport Logic, and you look at the heat maps or just watch them play, and it's a lot of the issues they've had in the past, especially last year, where they're just genuinely poor at net front defense, and I'm not sure how much of that is personality, and how much of it is just the system they play,

but they just seemingly lose a lot of battles in front of the goalie. And so that doesn't help matters. But they're also first in the league in offensive zone possession time. And so I think that's almost even more demoralizing, because I think part of it is a byproduct of just having McKinn in a car, and they have these lengthy shifts where they cycle the puck and get chance after chance and stack it together. But they spend so much time in the other team's zone.

And it's like, all right, well, we're safe because we're keeping it here and we're playing defensive offense. And then as soon as the puck comes, back the other way on the rare occasion, it seemingly is in the back of their net. And so it's just a really difficult environment to be in for them. And in season goalie additions in particular are really tough to finagle. All right, we got time for one more here. And let's dip into the Discord mailbag, as I said we would. And it's a question about the Kings from from listener Centron says, LA is trending towards its fourth consecutive season of averaging roughly 100 points in

making the playoffs. In each of the last three seasons, they lost in round one to the Oilers. Is this Kings team headed for the same fate or is there a reason to believe that they'll fare better this year? When we were planning today's show and we were bouncing around teams we wanted to cover, I gave you a list of mine, then you suggested the Kings. And I was like, I don't really have anything that novel or new to add about them because one, I find them just so deeply unenjoyable to watch this season, even when they win and never feel great about it. There's obviously a lot, especially defensively to like, but I can't help but feel like it's more of the same here where they're going to have some of these good underlying results.

Their defensive environment is going to be great, which allows them to play whichever goalie they want, become the playoffs, unless some of these young players take massive strides to sort of take over and break through offensively. They're just going to bump into a team, whether it's hilariously the Oilers for the four straight year or someone else who just has more firepower atop the lineup, and that's going to make the difference in a seven game series. Where are you out with them? Do you think there's any reason to believe that this spring is going to be a different story?

Not really. I mean, you know, anything can change. Obviously, like you said, they do have the own players that could break out. But yeah, so much with them is just the same thing we've been saying for the past couple years. And, you know, like the question alluded to, they've been able to put up consistently good, if not elite regular seasons. You know, this year especially their underlying numbers.

are exceptional. They're far and away the best defensive team in the NHL, you know, at 5 on 5 at least. I mean, they are, you know, especially when you factor in their injuries and, you know, the lack of Drew Dowdy, especially, you know, I think it's incredibly impressive what they've done. They've certainly exceeded my expectations heading into the season. But it's like you said, like at the same time, like you look at this roster, you look at what they're capable of offensively so far. It's hard to really envision them, you know, without an elite goaltender in the net, being able to win every playoff game two to one or three to one. And I think that necessarily kind of puts a ceiling on how we can project them. Like they are an incredibly impressive team,

I think, at least in the regular season, in terms of what they've been able to do at five on five. But especially if they end up in one of those matchups against a real juggernaut team, it's hard to envision them coming out of the pile unless they get some really good goal tending behind that amazing defense in the postseason. Yeah, I think it is I mean, listen, I don't want to dismiss it.

It just kind of been passing there because I think it's legitimately an impressive feat to just lose Drew Dowdy for the first 25 games here. And as you said, be first in the league and expected goals against shots allowed. They give up the third least offensive zone time to the opposition.

They're giving up the fifth US goals. like all that stuff is amazing. But then you look and it's like, all right, well, their power play is 25th in the league and goals power. Offensively, they generate like 31st slot shots themselves. They're kind of middle of the pack and both expected goals generated and goals scored. And you put that all together.

And it does feel like you're kind of going down this same road again. So it's unfortunate because I think similar to what we're saying about Detroit, obviously they're getting significantly better results, especially on their own end of the ice from their system. But like there's individual pieces here that have the capability clearly to break through and be some of these missing pieces that we're speaking about. But I just have no real confidence at this point that that's actually going to happen, especially when you stack them up against teams like the Oilers, the Golden Knights,

the stars, even the Canucks in their own revision. It just feels like those teams are so much more likely to get that little, edge offensively whether it's on the power play or opportunistically at five-on-five in a series than them and that's going to be the difference so unfortunately for my opinion it's more of the same and that's why i didn't really want to include them on the most interesting teams here but uh i'm glad we got a listener question in all right jack we got to get out of here all right sounds good um do you have any have any other notes on the kings uh just the quentin byfield has 11 points in 25 games so yeah we'll have to go another two or three seasons

or so of waiting for him to break out as a 90-point player. I know. That's deeply, deeply disappointing. All right. I'll let you plug some stuff here, let the listeners know where they can check you out. And if you've got anything in the works or anything you want to promote here before we get out of here.

Sure. Jayfresh hockey on both Twitter and Blue Skya, although I don't boast on Blue Sky as much as I probably should. I found out today that they have a 60-second video limit, which is probably going to significantly, limit how much stuff I end up posting there. And then yet still writing on EP race side from time to time. And ever so often on the sub stack as well.

All right, buddy. Well, uh, my plugs are we've got the four nations roster announcements here, um, tonight and then tomorrow we'll be back on for a two hour show with John Mattis and Sean Shapiro to break all of that down. So I've got to look forward to the next time we have Jack on is only three short months away, uh, at this point. It's going to be the trade deadline special. It's my favorite show to do every year.

We're going to loop trance into it, as always, and we're going to cook up the most outrageous trades and three-teamers that our heart's desire. So I cannot wait for that. Jack Bewell, thank you for coming on, and thank you to the listeners for listening to us. We'll be back with more of the HockeyPedio cast streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network.