The Hockey PDOcast - Canucks Playing Style, and Impact of Usage in New Jersey

Episode Date: March 15, 2024

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Harman Dayal to talk about the Canucks playing style, how they’re generating the results they have, and what it’ll look like in a playoff setting against different opponents. Then they talk about the good and bad in New Jersey, and how situation plus usage can dramatically impact a player’s results.  If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Progressing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filipovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEDOCast. My name is Demetri Filipovich. And joining me here in studio to close out another fun week of shows in the PEDOCast is my good buddy, Harmon Dile. Harmon, what's going on, man? I'm buzzing.

The sun's out. We're getting closer to playoff hockey. It was an awesome trade deadline as well. I'm buzzing. That's a good term. We're having you back on here. It's been a couple weeks, so it's good to check in with you. topics today. We're going to talk about playoff races, hot and cold vibe checks, notable

performances of late, stuff we're keeping an eye on after the deadline, all that good stuff. But I want to first start off talking about the Canucks with you. They've got 15 games left in the season now, I believe. They've played 67 so far. And after a first bit of adversity to end February, right, where they had that one, five, and one stretch. And everyone's like, oh, is this the other shoe dropping on the whole PDO debate and all of that stuff that unfolded? They bounced back with a very impressive start to the month of March. Now I know they blue their most recent game against the Colorado Avalanche, but still a 4-0-1 stretch here heading into the weekend.

And I thought, I'm curious for your take on this because I think they've certainly had some very impressive performances throughout, especially on the scoreboard. But I thought the two games they strung together there first in Vegas to close out that road trip and then come at home and just lay in the boots to the Winnipeg Jets the way they did. I know the Jets were playing a second of a back-to-back without two top six forwards, but still regardless of the circumstances, it was a statement game. and I thought the quality of competition, but also the manner in which they did it defensively, particularly against Vegas, was the perfect distillation of this team at its best and also, I think, made it the most impressive kind of stretch of games there for me just because of the way they did it.

Absolutely. And it's what you mentioned in terms of being stifling defensively that is the biggest key because, look, this team is going to create offense. They're going to score goals with the star power they have. but at 5-1-5, they're not a team that's going to overwhelm you with the number of grade A chances that they create necessarily. What they're doing so well over the course of the four-game winning streak that was snapped with that Colorado OT loss was how little they give up, especially through the neutral zone, how little they give up off the rush. They don't allow, on many instances forwards, to get behind the defense. And even in the rare occasion, when that does happen, usually you've got, and he's healthy, of course.

That's your Demko there to bail you out. But really, the Canucks defensive success, I think, starts with the forwards and how much they hound the opposition on the forecheck. I think their forecheck, when it's going, when they're well-rested, is elite. And it's not just a forecheck, but even in situations where the other team can break out, the forwards are doing such a good job of helping the defensemen out by reloading, providing so much back pressure so that as a defenseman, you really don't have to do a lot. You just kind of have to step up in the right situations in the neutral zone, knowing that you've

also got the forward support behind you. There's just no space to roam in the neutral zone to create. Even in the first two periods of that Colorado game, they didn't let Nathan McKinnon wind up at all. Of course, he ended up being such a huge difference maker with a couple of power play points later in the game. But at five on five, they found a way to slow that line. slow that line down, which I think has been extremely impressed with the watch lately.

No, it certainly hasn't. Ray Ferraro did a really good job on that broadcast. I was watching from home, and he was kind of pointing that out along the way and how they were doing so and why it was so important. That's what's so fascinating about this Canucks season, right? Because for all the conversation that's hinged around, like, their team shooting percentage and how that's been driving some of the results, I think they've actually been such a fascinating case study for those that have bothered to kind of peel a few layers back

and think about how hockey's played today. Such a fascinating case study in terms of how playing style can impact your statistical results, right? And Sport Logic has them at sixth in a few as expected goals against their third in offensive zone time themselves dominating in sort of effort-based stats as we've talked about like the four check chances and rebounds and cycle and all of that. And I think the reason why they've been so much better at, as we've spoken about in the past, at defending against the rush and not giving up opportunities that way,

which was a big bugaboo for this team in the past, is because of that dominance up the ice in terms of keeping the puck down there, tiring out the opposition, and just going to work time and time again, right? And you saw that against Vegas, and I'm curious for your take on this, because in watching this Golden Knights team play recently, they're obviously still going to at some point get Mark Stone and Tomas Hurtle back, assuming they make the playoffs,

and it looks more likely after that comeback against Seattle the other day. But even watching the Golden Knights against the Cracken, watching last night against the Flames, and certainly that Canucks game a week or so ago now, I have concerns about that Golden Knights team in terms of like the pace they can play at and what teams can do with them if you come at them directly with the speed that Canucks have. Now, a few teams can sort of do so from top to bottom of the lineup. And that's testament to the way Rick Tocke has this group playing, right, where there's just like such a level of effort and commitment to the way they want to play.

and I think that's what's made this Canucks season impressive in that sense. But when you go at the Golden Knights that way, for all the talk about how big they are, like every player they have is seemingly like 6-3, 6-4, if you take away that time and space for them to actually get moving with the forecheck the way the Canucks did, all of a sudden they start to look really slow by comparison, in my opinion. That would be one of my concerns for all the proclamations about like,

oh, they did it again, they brought in all this talent, they're loading up to repeat as champions. obviously they're still terrifying to play against the full strength. But I do think watching a game like that gives you sort of a blueprint of what you can do to give the Golden Knights trouble right now. Yeah, I've had a tough time figuring out what the real version of Vegas is. And I'm... Well, we haven't really seen it. Yeah.

Yeah. And of course, because of their championship pedigree and assuming they're going to get stone back at some point in the playoffs, you give them the benefit of the doubt for now. But they are loose defensively. They're quite permissive. And what you mentioned about the pace that, for example, the Canucks went out at them with a week ago, it's been prevalent how many issues Vegas has had this season

breaking the puck out from the back end especially. And I had conversations because I was in Vegas with a lot of the beatwriters that have been covering the team all season. And they pointed out that the narrative all along was this idea that, okay, well, Shay Theodore had missed so much time. And if you reinsert Shane Theodore, all of a sudden your breakout trial, doubles are going to vanish.

And of course, Theodore has had some positive impact, but still watching Vegas play. They don't get the puck out of the defensive zone quick enough. And that's where you do have some of those bigger bodies that are so excellent defensively in zone or maybe struggling a little bit with the puck when you think about like a Braden McNabb, when you think about a Nick Hague.

I don't think Zach White Cloud has had his best season. And of course, Alec Martinez has hurt now, but when he was healthy, he really didn't look like the Alec Martinez were used to and I think that's a huge part of why they went out and got Noah Hannafin is I'm looking at a player like that as a key X factor

to help restore their puck moving on the blue line so that they can play a faster style. Not to mention the other thing that I'm keeping an eye on is Jack Eichael obviously returned from injury not too long ago. He's typically been a player that takes a while to get going again once he's missed some time and is inserted back into the lineup. So I am sort of curious to continue tracking his form because he didn't look like himself either.

Yeah, it's fascinating because, and kind of ironic in that Mark Stone is probably their slowest player in terms of actual individual foot speed, right? And he's like known for those choppy steps he takes when he's kind of moving out there and lugging around. At the same time, though, he speeds them up so much because of his ability to off takeaways, quickly move the puck up the ice or off the wall get it into the middle so that someone can skate and skate into space and so not having him has really slowed them down in a way which is kind of counterintuitive i guess they're just thinking about like how fast their guys can actually move as a team if he comes back that obviously changes a little bit but yeah just watching like

they had 43% expect the goal share against Seattle in that game they came back and won 33% last night against the flames like i certainly think there's some alarming trends there now back to canucks and I think why they gave them so many problems is some of that stuff we outlined. The other thing that I think you and I have spoken about in the past, and I really wanted to hammer this point home more. I know it doesn't apply as much because we just saw them blow a big lead to the avalanche, but a big reason why they've been able to be so successful is because they keep getting out to these early leads.

And I think the broadcast said that this most recent game against Colorado was their 19th time this season where they had scored a goal within the first five minutes of a game. and that ability to go up early and how that essentially enables them to play exactly the way they want to play where you can just get the puck deep, grind on the opposition, lean on them,

and sort of use the score effects to your advantage that way. I think that's been the trend that I'm following the most closely, right? Because I think once the game state changes a little bit, maybe that can open up some of those weaknesses, but they just haven't really given us many examples of that happening this season. And I'm not sure how much of that.

is randomness and luck and how much of that is just good preparation like the coaching staff having them ready to go to start games you they're almost the antithesis of the new jersey devils a team we're going to talk about later in a way right because the devils this entire season seemingly come out of the gate immediately give a goal against and are just like flummoxed and scrambling and unprepared and not knowing what to do and i think that's bleeding into all their results the canucks i guess aside from the hues of it all are the exact opposite of the devils that way both both in terms of those initial results and then also the playing style that enables

and kind of the season they've had as a whole. It's massive because the Canucks, since they're not a team that creates offense off the rush, you do notice, for example, the first time the Canucks played L.A., L.A. went up a goal, and then they just sat back in their one-three-one. They put up a wall defensively, kept the Canucks to the outside, and it's like they had difficulty turning possession into legit high danger chances once they were trailing in a game.

But, and of course, the second time they played the Canucks did find a way to break through and came back from a 1-0 deficit to win an OT. But it's been those situations sometimes, a rare times when they do go down in a game sometimes, where you're like, okay, mounting chances, it feels like a different ballgame from the Canucks perspective. Whereas when they do score that initial goal, so often they keep their foot on the gas,

build it up to a two, three goal lead, and then they're able to put it into cruise control. Of course, the Aves game was an exception in that they lost their composure. Well, and I think that's what makes the Avalanche such a fascinating opponent for them and also kind of a foil to that in that, in that they're probably the best team in the West, I'd say, I guess maybe you could lump Dallas in there a little bit just because they obviously attack so much off the rush themselves. But in terms of like going down early and then having the firepower and also, the style to accommodate it.

Like the avalanche are, I'm sure they don't want to go down three nothing and try to have to come back and stuff like that. But they're equipped to do so, right? And you can sort of see that especially against them kind of playing back a little bit and sort of being a bit more conservative and trying to hold on to a lead is going to get you into all sorts of trouble. Right. And I know that people had some qualms with officiating certainly along the way.

But that's kind of what happens in games like this where the team trailing starts pushing more, they get very aggressive, maybe they have a bit more space to skate, and then all of a sudden you start reaching, hooking, slashing a little bit more often, the officials give you a few penalties and all of a sudden to avalanche are back in the game. I think that's sort of what we saw. So that's what makes the avalanche such a unique opponent for the Canucks, I think, compared to a lot of the other teams where they're much more well designed to get out to an early lead and then just sort of put their foot down and close them out. I also wonder if part of that blown lead was psychological in a way because

watching the way the Canucks came out in the first period, they were so fast, they were playing off their instincts, they were in sync, their passes were clean, crisp, sharp, and then in the third period it's like they were it's like they sensed that the avalanche

had gained a bit of life with that goal late in the second period and all of a sudden they could sense okay the aves are coming now and they were almost afraid to make a mistake rather than then focusing on, like, this is how we play this fast, north, south style, and if we execute this, we're going to win.

The focus was almost more on, boy, the abs are coming at us in waves. Now we're feeling kind of panicky, and now we're making uncharacteristic mistakes where we can't clear the pocket of the defensive zone. You had situations where, like, Quinn Hughes, two and Elias Pedersen, they botch a breakout pass, and it leads to the penalty, which then later leads to Ian Cole's 5 on 3, which the have score on to make it a one goal hockey game. That to me felt more of a psychological, like a mental thing for why they blew that lead. And it is going to be interesting if these two teams meet in the Western Conference

final, which is, of course, a long, long ways away. But if they do, the Canucks haven't been able to beat the Aves all year. And it's interesting because each time they play the Aves, they've been close, but not close enough. And you do wonder if they get to that point in the playoffs and you end up in some of these high-stake situations again where you have to close out a lead would there be i don't know intimidation sounds like too strong of a word but is there going to be a little bit of a leg up for a team like colorado especially given their championship pedigree well there's teams like the abs that can

not necessarily like flip the switch but they don't necessarily need to be playing at their absolute best for the full 60 minutes to still get it done right like they can sort of like had these little lag periods or a few shifts or even a period here or there where they're not like firing on all cylinders or really at their sharpest and then they'll turn it on and then all they that's all they need right like the heat the gear they can hit once they're rolling like that once they start snowballing is still terrifying and I think has a lot of people within the league that are like that are obviously not affiliated with the abs but like are facing the proposition of having to face them like a little bit concerned right or it's like okay this team has fewer

weaknesses than it did last year where we weren't as worried about them and all of a sudden now they're sort of reminding us of that team a couple years ago. At the same time, though, for the Canucks, what makes them so interesting and unique moving forward and what I'm going to be watching for is how demanding, I guess, having to play this way is and like the sustainability of it, right? We've seen them do it for 67 games now

for pretty much the entirety of the season, right? And kudos to them for that. At the same time, though, once you get into the postseason, and everyone is kind of on the same page, I guess, in terms of that, it becomes a bit less of a value to, kind of like how we talked about Carolina in the past, but also you can't really afford to like slip up or kind of take a step back from an effort and compete level,

and not that you would in the playoffs anyways. But I guess like for them to play, they have to just play such a specific way so repeatedly that it gets to the point where you do, I think it's fair to wonder, like, all right, is this just realistic to expect this group of guys to just keep doing that every single time? Well, that's funny enough. That's exactly the point that I was going to bring up to you in terms of going into the playoffs. One of my biggest question marks or concerns is can you play that all-out max effort style where every game is treated like a sprint throughout a long playoff run? And of course, because it's playoffs, you're going to have the mentality to do it.

but can your body actually catch up, especially if you run into some of these longer series against a team like Vegas in the first round, potentially, where it's a long grinding physical series. Are you going to have enough juice in later rounds, even if you do win in the first round or if you run into an injury or two, right? That is a legit question mark because we've noticed earlier in the season as well. course, to some degree, applies to every team where, okay, the schedule becomes a little overbearing and a team's play might slip, but especially for a team like the Canox, there's a massive

difference between it feels like when they don't have a lot of rest and they're playing a lot of games and you can tell they're starting to tire versus when they've had a chance to be well, rest in. And I think that's a big reason why they've been in this stretch where they've won four of their last five games is the schedule has lightened up for lighten up for them a little bit. And you're just watching the effort that the forwards are able to put out there. And you're like, this is a completely different team than the one we saw in February where their schedule was condensed. But then you extrapolate that forward and you think about the playoffs or you don't really get a chance to pause. You don't really get a break.

That's a legit question mark I have. I guess the good news is you won't really bump into back-to-back scenario. So at least you'll have that. and what, they've got seven games in the next 18 days or so as well. So, like, I think they're going to have a chance to sort of build on this and potentially even carve out enough of a lead where maybe you get into April and you can start sort of strategically setting yourself up for the playoffs as opposed to, like, having to play all out in the final game of the regular season

just to get in, which some teams might have to. So I think that can be an advantage for them. But you're right. I think, like, on the one hand, it's so commendable when a team squeeze. every single ounce of potential and ability out of its personnel group the way the Canucks have because of like effort and system and stuff like that. But that also the advantageous nature of that shrinks a little bit when you get to the playoffs where essentially everyone's motivation reaches the same point and also the schedule balances

itself out, right? Because I think we've heard, was it Andrew Journey this season when the coyotes came through town where he was talking about how like the Canucks were the most impressive team he's been. And I'm not surprised to hear a coach say that because a lot of the stuff that Canucks do are like a coach's dream in that regard. And so when you watch them, especially if your team isn't as sharp in that sense, you're like, oh, man, I really wish my guys would play the way Rick Toggett has his team playing. So I totally get that. But also then when you get to the playoffs and you're playing a Vegas or an L.A. or in Edmonton, and they're all similarly locked in and focused and going all out for every single shift and every single. battle, it's less of an advantage than when you catch them on a second of a back-to-back or during

a four-and-six-day stretch or something and you just kind of blow them away because they're just not ready to deal with how hard you're going at them. And so that's interesting. It's obviously a tougher thing to sort of quantify and that's typically stuff we don't spend too much time focusing on on this show just because it's kind of like pure speculation. But also I think it'll be foolish to just ignore it and sort of be like, oh, that's not a factor in why this team's thriving the way they have. Yeah, definitely. And that's why also health is, I mean, health is important for every team, but especially for the Canucks. They have some, you know, drivers in certain parts of the lineup where you're like,

if they lose this type of guy that, you know. Especially with death, right? And that's why like they've missed Dakota Joshua so much. And it's not because he's, I mean, he's having a phenomenal season, certainly. But also just because of his playing style and what him and Connor Garland were able to give them stylistically in terms of how they were succeeding. That just presents such a massive hole in the lineup. when he's not in there.

They've been able to survive the past month. But it's also like, it's funny to compare that to a star player missing for, like Mark Stone not being in the lineup for Vegas and Dakota Joshua, not being in the lineup for the Canucks. They're obviously two wildly different players in terms of like name recognition and talent and everything. But it's almost just as important just because the Canucks need that exact type of

player to sort of fit in as a puzzle piece for how they're trying to operate as a whole. One of the X factors that is worth keeping an eye on from a Canucks perspective as well is looking at how some of their complimentary top six wingers fare down the stretch. And what I mean by that is, Nils Hoaglander has been a dog since the All-Star break. He's been unbelievable. His underlying numbers, he's been controlling around 60% of expected goal share before the Colorado game. At 5-on-5, his point production was near the top of the NHL since the All-Star break. And just stylistically, what you mentioned in terms of consistently winning pock battles, that nonstop motor, sort of being the engine of that line, he's probably been arguably their second best forward since the All-Star break behind J.T. Miller. He's been the best player on that line with Pederson.

I'd argue, and part of that is Petterson hasn't necessarily looked like Pedersen recently, but he's important to keep an eye on because he's a guy that started the season in a fourth line role. wasn't really a player that Rick Tocket trusted a lot, but worked his way up the lineup, has scored basically all his goals at even strength, and if you can continue to provide legit top six value, they're going to need that, especially since Elias Lindholm hasn't been a fit at a top six wing position

and has instead found his way in a third-line center role. And then Ilya McAev is the other one to keep an eye on. He finally scored for the first time in like 34 games against Colorado, but more than just the offense, it's the last couple of games before that, it finally felt like, okay, his motor's starting to run again. Whereas before,

a large chunk of the season, he's been given a consistent top six opportunity and has just looked invisible and hasn't had that explosive lead speed that we're used to in large part because he tore his ACL last season, and that's something to keep an eye on as well is the further that ACL injury

is in the rear-view mirror, for McKayev, can he get closer to the true version of himself because that's another player with his speed with his forechecking when he's at his best that can have a significant impact considering this team is probably short top six winger. Yeah, I think they're kind of

not necessarily banging that, but they were forced to rely on that because they weren't able to go and facilitate adding a top six winger at the deadline. Yeah, it's interesting. I guess you could view it through the lens of Dakota Joshua's absence. This is a lot. them to test out Prokolesen, right? And he sort of fits into that as well. So getting another body that can play that way and actually getting the reps of seeing it as opposed to getting into a spot where you get to the playoffs, you have an injury, and then you have to just kind of throw someone in cold

and not being sure what to expect. It's a different thing. So I guess that is kind of one of the hidden blessings of the Joshua injury. But yeah, it's fascinating, right? Because I think clearly the Canucks is a team, despite the fact that Quinn Hughes is obviously having like a Norris level season and they have Pedersen and Miller and Demko and they have like the individual talent yet still what makes them so effective is the combination of everyone coming together and playing a certain way to get the most out of them as opposed to like just individual drivers sort of taken over themselves and sort of willing the team to victory they still have that capability but that hasn't really been the case this season I think that's why they've been as successful as they have so it'll be

fascinating to see how that all unfolds within the scheme of the playoffs and sort of the intricacies and dynamics of how other teams are operating and how they're composed. Yeah, especially when you get into the pre-scouting angle, that's, especially for a team like the Canucks that hasn't been in the playoffs, it's been so interesting over the course of the regular season, for example, to see how teams have started to defend Quinn Hughes differently in the offensive zone where they seem to recognize the patterns of, okay, this guy loves attacking downhill, along the half wall.

And what I'd notice is they would give him that space almost and understand that he's going to be looking for that backdoor passing lane or that slot passing lane. And the defense is then just like, okay, Quinn, we'll give you that space. But we're just going to take your passing options away religiously. And so often for a while, it seemed like, okay, he doesn't have as many, like he still looks great skiing around the zone. But he's not able to necessarily translate that into high danger chances. but then it's a cat and mouse game where recently it's felt like he's added a couple of tricks to his arsenal where he's attacking off the right side on the half wall more which we didn't see from him early in the season and that's those are tricks that the opposition would not have seen in pre-scouting and so that's where he's generated some of his assists lately is finding ways to attack on the right side even which is so different from early in the season it was like it was like a cheat code the hues and heronic exchange changes and like that's what I'm interested to see as well for this connect's team is

you've got a lot more attention on you especially going into the playoffs they're they're going to watch tape on how you're successful as a team is there any anything that they're going to be able to identify that you do really well and take that away from you in a playoff style in a way that you can't do in the regular season right and then if there's going to be the kind of compensatory like problem solving ability to sort of do exactly what you said with Hughes where he's such a special talent that eventually he's going to figure out like a workaround to sort of all right well if you're going to take this way that means it's something else has opened up for me whereas a lot of the other approach for some of their players is so cut and dried

I guess in terms of like to be successful this is what we have to do and if you take that away it's still a bit more unproven on whether they actually have the talent and the capability to compensate for it like Hughes did so I can't wait to see that unfold and that's why the the NHL playoffs are such a beautiful thing because they allow us to sort of see all of that in action and then then talk about it. Haram, let's take a break here. And then when we come back, we'll switch gears and we'll talk about some other topics. You're listening to the Hockey P.D.O. cast streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network.

All right. We're back here in the Hockey-Dowell to close out the week. Haram, I think we're done with with Canucks stuff, right? Did you have any other notes on them or even the West teams? Because I want to talk about the devils a little bit with you within the context of a, uh, a biggest disappointments piece that you put out on the athletic. But any other stuff on that? Let's get on the Bucie.

Let's do it. So I've spoken a lot about their defensive regression this season. And in particular, it's been oriented around the team level, right? Because I think everyone's been wondering, okay, why have been, they've been so disappointing? Why do they keep losing? Why aren't they building off of what they did last year? And they're in the bottom third of the league and expected goals against rush chances allowed, interslot, Chauts, all that stuff.

And I think anyone listening to the show gets that by now. What we haven't really unpacked as much is like the individual components of it. And I think what we do on this show is sort of dig past the easy narratives and try to focus on like the functional stuff in terms of what's happening. And I think one of the lazy narratives in my opinion so far has been, well, this team lost Ryan Graves and David and Steven this offseason. And of course they're worse defensively. They lost two key defensemen for them. And while there's certainly some logic to that, right, in terms of like,

all right, these are two guys who are certainly like NHL players who played a big role for this team last year, and it's easy to trace going from point A to point B in that regard, I don't really think that's a satisfactory reason for me here in terms of identifying what's gone wrong, especially since the guys who have struggled the most aren't the ones who have replaced those guys,

but instead it's been Jonas Seganthaler and John Marino, as you identified, who were really, really good for them last year and have taken massive steps back themselves. Yeah, and of course you had the Dougie Hamilton injury on top of that, and it's like you said, I hate that narrative. Yeah. And again, there is some degree of truth to it,

but really it is, I don't think enough people are talking about Marino and Siegenthall are the steps back that they've taken. In Siegenthallor's case, of course, part of it is he's missing his usual defense partner and Dougie, also look at some of the microstats that Corey Schneider has been tracking in, he's failed, he's

had a failed defense's own exit on about 36.4% of his defenses on pock touches, which is one of the, is the worst mark among Devils Blue Liner's and one of the worst marks in the entire NHL. So he's been a bit of a turnover machine in that sense, and you watch him play, he

hasn't been as comfortable handling the pocket making plays on his backhand, especially in the defensive zone. So he's been more mistake and arrow prone there. His numbers defending the rush have taken a significant step back, I believe, in terms of percentage of rushes where he's been the defenseman that's been quote unquote targeted. He's allowed a controlled entry against at the highest rate among Devils blue liners. And you think back to what Seagenthaler was last year or even the year before. Consistently across the board, he was a tremendous impact.

and not giving up a lot, he's taking a huge step back. Well, what's interesting about that, and I don't know, there's a definitive answer necessarily, but I'm just thinking this through logically, I think certainly not having Dougie, who was his regular partner,

hurts, right? Particularly with Dougie's own skill as a puck mover and as someone who can handle the puck and then make plays out of the zone, just more being on his plate in that regard, I think comes into it. And it's interesting hearing you mention sort of the, I guess,

the confidence on the backhand, and kind of when you have this accumulation of turnovers, especially if they lead the goals against and sort of the trickle down that can have on a player's confidence. I wonder it's a bit of a chicken and egg thing, but if that can also help explain the rush defense a little bit, because it would make sense that like if you're struggling in that sense and you're trying to compensate for it,

you might be playing back a bit more to maybe buy yourself a bit more time to get back and play a puck, right, or stuff like that. And then all of a sudden you're just leaving more room for someone to skate into the zone or to attack you. or your mind's in a different place because you're already trying to think two steps ahead of what I'm going to do if this guy dumps it in, how am I going to play this puck, and then all of a sudden the guy's just going around you. So it's tough to know that without actually speaking to Jonas and getting in his head, and I'm sure you wouldn't even get the right answer anyways. But that's a funny, that's an interesting thing to think about, right? Because I think the combination of those things is certainly manifested in itself.

And that stat is very damning when you kind of present it that way. Yeah, definitely. That's a really good point in those factors. perhaps being related. And you can just see confidence-wise that... He's been struggling. He's been struggling. Yeah.

Well, that's what... At least I get it from that sense because being a defensive defenseman in particular, when, like, so much of your value is tied up in what Seagenthaler was doing previously, it's a really tricky thing to do for a long period of time, right? Like, you're going to have peaks and valleys. And if you don't have much else to fall back on, you're going to be exposed a little bit in that regard. So I get it in that sense, especially without Dougie there.

The Marino one is a bit more missed behind to me because he was so good last year in his first year in New Jersey and we spoke much about how the impact he was having on the entire way they were playing. And as far as I know, he's been healthy. And it just like his play is almost when you watch it, it's almost been careless in a sense where like the attention to detail for missed assignments and guys kind of just like moving around him and getting open and him being late to react has been very strange for a player who had very few instances of that last year and should theoretically still be in his prime and

able to replicate his success from last year. And it just, it's looked much different this season. Yeah, the lack of defensive awareness has been shocking because this is a player that I was marveling at last season and going, what a two-way stud for them anchoring that second pair. What a steal of a trade with Pittsburgh. And again, you just watch it. it's too easy for teams to get behind him. I mean, I remember watching a recent game against the docks, and him and his partner were aligned in a pretty good position defending the middle on a duck's counterattack rush.

It's not as if they had a huge, odd-numbered advantage on that rush. And yet, Frank Vitrano, as one of the quicker players in the NHL, from his defensive blue line, is starting to pick up. up steam and trying to join in as another layer in the rush Marino is almost at his defensive blue line at this point so he's got all day to track and pick up that hey

Votrano's coming down here he's coming straight down the middle where I am this is a guy that I should maybe be picking up on yet it seemed like Marino was just watching the puck on the flank and it's like one Mississippi two Mississippi three Mississippi and then Votrano slashed is right past him. Marino still has no idea.

The pass is feathered behind and Vatranos in all alone and scores in that situation. And you're like, this is just what we didn't see at all from him last year. And it's part of the reason why his five and five goals against rate was bottom five in the NHL among defensemen who'd logged at least 700 minutes when I wrote that piece a few days ago. Now, the reason why I bring this stuff up, and then I'll not just dump on those guys, although I think it is interesting to like examine what's happened to them this year compared to last year and why that's played such a big role is one thing that we can

sort of identify so far in the limited time that Travis Green has been coaching this team is how I think purposefully they've kind of tried to bypass this a little bit and what I mean by that is in the first 39 games this season with Lindy Ruff as the coach after Shimon Nemitz's call up because he was started the year in the HAL. him and Luke Hughes played 70 minutes and 19 seconds at 5-1-5 together. In four games under Travis Green, I think Nemitz was scratched in the first one. They wanted to give him a bit of a reset. So in four games since then, him and Hughes have played 55 minutes together.

And they're essentially using them full-time as a defense pair. And when I did my Nemitz episode with Del Velfare a couple weeks ago, Darrell in particular, and it's interesting to sort of read between the lines in his commentary because he's worked very closely with all the Hughes's this season, but in particular with Luke, was sort of lamenting the fact that him and Nemitz weren't playing as much together as he'd like to see and was like, this is the future, they should start doing this now,

regardless of what happens this season, to get more reps together to build that up for years to come. And Travis Green took over, and immediately we've seen a massive paradigm shift in that regard. And you're not, I don't even care about the numbers through four games because, like, let's build a sense. sample size out longer. But I certainly see stuff that I like with those two guys.

And it makes sense because while they're both young blue liners and we know coaches typically don't like to put two skilled young guys together that way, Nemitz is already so polished in his ability to sort of command a game and with subtleties in particular that I think it actually makes for a perfect partner for Hughes's more sort of freelancing, puck dominant style. And so I think that's something very exciting for Devils fans moving forward that we've already seen them full-time go this way. And I imagine the final, whatever 15 to 20 games they have, is going to be even more

of that. And so it's interesting because they've kind of, in a way, bypassed the struggles of Seganthal and Marino by just instead of trying to pair them up with them, they've been like, let's just forget these two guys and we'll figure everything else out. But we're going to make sure we have this one pair that's able to hopefully succeed the rest of the way. Yeah, Nemech might already be their steadiest defenseman as a rookie, which is wild. And honestly, if it wasn't from starting the year,

in the AHL, I absolutely think he should have been in, whether you want to call it, top three or top five in the college conversation, because I agree he's been that polished, he's looked that mature. He hasn't had as many of the quote-unquote rookie mistakes as Hughes has. And you just think about those two guys together, how young they are, how much they're going to prove, how cheap they are against the cap. those are massive building blocks for you on the blue line for next season as well in terms of getting things back on track of course you're going to get Dougie back and at some point you're going to need Seagenthaler and Marino to look like themselves again but if Hughes and Nemmich

can continue taking another huge step in their sophomore campaigns I think that could be driving force for the bullion for the devil's blue line next season now while we're on the theme of the devils and listen I get it I'm in on the joke this is essentially turn into a devil's podcast over the past couple months where I seemingly, I can't stop talking about this team, even though they've been disappointing this year. But it's because you can still see the tantalizing talent in place and the fact that this could turn around really quickly. And another very encouraging thing moving forward has been Timel Myers play. And I was very happy in reading your

disappointments piece not to see him on there because I imagine that maybe like a month ago, if that ever been written up, it would be very easy to be like, well, this is, been one of the most disappointing seasons based on previous production, expectation, how excited we were when he came to New Jersey, and then what we actually had, particularly from like a pure box score perspective, right? Now, I'm sure some of it has to do with like improved help because he clearly was coming back from injury and wasn't himself physically and he relies so much on that physical dominance to succeed, but also removing Tyler DeFoli, who obviously in his own right is a phenomenal player and who I love on Winnipeg, but just getting him out of the equation

has cleared up Meyer to play on his natural position at right wing, but also play on the top unit power play. And pretty much in these whatever six, seven games that they've played in March, all of a sudden he looks like Timo Meyer again. And regardless of what happens the rest of the season, whether they can make a push here and compete for a playoff spot or not, just based on the commitment they have to them where they're paying him $8.8 million for the next seven seasons, this is almost the biggest thing

that could happen down the stretch is like going into the offseason and feeling confident that, yeah, we have Timel Meyer on our team as opposed to, oh, man, we have Timel Meyer on our team. And I think I don't want to jinx it after just seven games, but it feels like we're turning a corner here and we're actually starting to finally see it. Absolutely. If it was just based off the first half of the season, I mean, I actually had Meyer initially on my list of top 10 disappointments, but then, you know, I'd watch him recently and I'm like,

he's got his mojo back. This is the team of the Meyer we've been waiting for. And like you alluded to, I think it was just so strange. seeing him not be noticeable on many nights because you think back to when he was on San Jose and even when he's not scoring sure he has some stretches where if he's inconsistent you don't notice him as much but he's such a physical force, he's got the speed,

he's got the size, he's got the hands, and it seemed that quiet in the first half of the season was really surprising but recently to see him get back to sort of being a beast, putting him in a position to succeed as opposed to, you know, at point seeing him at third line left wing under Lindy Ruff. It's massive. They're going to absolutely need him to be at his best. And I think that's one of the hopefully best server linings down the stretch is him getting back to being the team of mine that we're used to.

Yeah, the concerning part wasn't a lack of production, although like, I'm sure based on how much they're paying him and the expectations heading into the season, they would have liked to see more goals. But it was just a lack of involvement and activity you're mentioning there. and now just watching him, like, he's just bullying people again. Like that goal he scored against the Panthers where I believe it was Nico Mikola where he just like went through him and then with one hand tapped it in, like using his physical gifts functionally the way we've become accustomed to, he's finally starting to do it in these seven games in March, eight goals, 30 shots on goal, 48 attempts, 12 high danger chances.

And that's more like it. That's the player that we fell in love with in the past. So that's very exciting. And I guess the final point I wanted to make on that is, I think everyone sort of intuitively, like, understands and, and fully believes in how usage and, like, a situation for a player can impact their production and how they look and how they feel. But it also sometimes, it feels like we may be not discounted, but don't properly account for it, right? Like, it's like, what's wrong with Timel Meyer? Well, he's not being used on the top unit power play, and he's playing third line left wing.

I think maybe we shouldn't expect him to produce, even if he is at full health, the way he did when he was playing top unit power play on the top six right wing. And now seeing him back to that, it's interesting that it's coming together, right? And I think that's an important thing, especially post-deadline where like you look at it again, because that's all his five-on-five numbers in Carolina playing with Jake Hetzel and Martin Aches. And it's like, oh, he's good again. And I'm sure there's some motivation and stuff like that involved, but also I think it's important to realize that it's a bit of a different circumstance, I guess, that he's playing in than maybe he did previously and that's exactly what's happening here with Meyer.

And almost to give you an example of of the opposite is I remember Domishish and our pal had a list of like five players to be wary of closer to the deadline and it was so interesting seeing obviously if Vatranos had an amazing year but pointing out that

okay this guy's used to just spiked in a way where if you're, you got to be careful thinking about the type of player you're getting because he's playing in such a massive the top six role and he's playing top unit power play. So if you're a contending team,

odds are you're probably not going to have Frank Vitron on your top unit power play and you may not be feeding him as many minutes. So you've got a tempered expectations for what exactly he is as a goal score that he's not like a 30, 35, 40 goal, true talent guy, that he is probably closer to true talent, like a 25 type goal score. And so if the asking price with an extra year left on his contract is, you know, first round pick plus, then teams should be kind of wary about that. And I was reading that and I was like, you know what?

That's a really good point. It's an example of the opposite where guys got really good usage. And on a contending team, you probably wouldn't get that usage. And it would probably have a deflationary impact on his counting stats. Right. It's not, it's apples and oranges in the sense that just because you're succeeding in one situation, doesn't mean you could just take that player, put him in a different situation and just expect the same result. even if you're pro rating them, right?

Like it's going to have just a trickle-down impact on the way they play in particular. And that's a really good point in terms of remembering that even on the worst teams, someone has to score. I know that the Blackhawks tested the boundaries of that without Badaard where like they just literally were not scoring goals and so no one was producing. But for the most part, even you watch the sharks now. And I've seen people being like, oh, man, like Michael Granlan, he's actually pretty productive. Like he's, you know, he's playmaking. He's putting up some points.

where was this guy last year down the stretch in Pittsburgh? And the reality is that when you're literally the guy in that sense where it's like, it doesn't matter if it doesn't work, but no matter what, you're going to keep play in heavy minutes.

Every time we get in the power play, the puck's going to run through you. Eventually, you're going to score some points because you're in the NHL and you got to this point for a reason and someone has to get those points, whereas that doesn't necessarily mean

that all of a sudden now, Granlin, someone who, in the offseason, a contender should be like trying to reclaim as a potential, contributor because it's going to be a different situation, hopefully, for what you're going to use them for as opposed to what the sharks are getting at. And another example is the last Lindholm, because watching him for most of the season in

Calgary, he was pretty disappointing and pretty underwhelming, not really driving play, but because he's basically centering the first line, because he's spending so much time on the top of you to power play, was still racking up some point totals. And not that you looked at his production and went, whoa, what a player, but it was, it still looked like top six caliber production. And then obviously coming to Vancouver pretty quickly demoted from that first, you know, power play, sent down to sort of a third line role. And of course, part of it is getting used to a new team, new situation. But you're seeing his production has declined even further.

And you're like, yeah, his play wasn't actually good, yet he was still putting up a fair number of points in Calgary just because of the opportunity and usage. Yeah, it is. And I was very high on that trade at the time. And I'm still not closing the door on it because I just think he's a good player. and he can provide value to the Canucks, certainly. But maybe what we discounted was the stylistic fit of everything we just spoke about in the first half of the show where, like, the Canucks at their core is such like a high activity, like in your face team when they're at their best. And Linholm, when he's at his best, is so much more like subdued and sort of behind the scenes in that sense, like methodical in his approach. And you can get success out of players like that if you like, if you're playing them down the middle and you surround them with two very.

involve wingers who do all the work and he's sort of the puppet master in the middle. But it's going to look different and maybe you should change your expectations on how productive that type of player is going to be when it's such a mismatch from like his preferred playing style to what I guess Rick Tocke and the Canucks ideally want from their guys. And to be clear, I like the trade at the time too just because I figured, okay, if you when you think back to the outstanding Ford goal year he had alongside Good Drawing Kuchak I was thinking, all right, all of his goals, all of his offense, a huge chunk of his value seemed to be his ability to finish from the high slot area, especially because Gidro and Kachuk just watching the tapeback of a lot of those goals,

they would draw so much of the defense's attention. And especially those passes either from below the goal line or east-west to set up Lindholm on a T. It just seemed like such a perfect fit. So I was thinking, all right, you can slot Lindholm on a wing position, with Pedersen and Miller, and he doesn't have to be the guy. He just has to be a complimentary piece, just a trigger man, doesn't need to drive play. And early on, it didn't work, and that was a huge part of the equation for why you thought it may have been such a strong fit for Vancouver was this idea that if you elevate the quality

of linemates he has and give him elite caliber players again, that then it would recapture some of his previous offensive foreman. We haven't seen that yet. Yeah. Harm, let's get out of here. I'm going to let you plug some stuff. What do you want the people to check out or is there anything you're working on

other than the biggest disappointments piece, which I think we still found a way of kind of framing in a positive light. I know it started off kind of bleak there, but we turned around with some encouraging themes. Yeah, I've got a bunch of stuff coming up at the athletics soon. Some stuff next week on a couple of fun, exciting projects. I'm going to be doing something on some of my

my favorite underrated centers in the NHL. And on a more positive note, some of the under the radar breakout performances, I did something earlier in the year on most improved players, but trying to shine a light on some guys under the radar that have taken steps this year that deserve a little bit more of the spotlight. Awesome, buddy. We'll keep up the great work. We'll have you on again soon again. I'm sure everyone goes smash the five-star button wherever you listen.

Join the PDOCast Discord with the invite link in the show notes. And that's all for this week. I hope everyone has a great weekend. and I'll see you back here on Monday when we come back with a whole new set of HockeyPedio cast episodes on the Sports Night Radio Network.