The Hockey PDOcast - Canucks System Changes, and Elias Pettersson's Struggles

Episode Date: November 1, 2024

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Harman Dayal to discuss the early returns on the system changes the Canucks are trying to implement this season, Elias Pettersson's continued struggles dating back to last year, and teams that should be positioned as aggressive buyers right now. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Regressing to the mean since 2015, it's the Hockey P.D.O.cast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey Pee-Ocast. My name is Dmitri Filippovich and joining me in studio here to close out the week. His first appearance of the season, first of many, I'm sure. Is there a good buddy, Harmon Dile, Harmon? What's going on in? Doing well. It's been a while, so I'm excited to be on the show today. Yeah, this is going to be fun. So I've got a rundown here for the episode. We're going to talk about the Canucks. Get into that a little bit. Obviously, your bread and butter and everything. of expertise. Got a couple listener questions later. And then if we have time, a little tease here, we might do some first month of the season awards, although that seems kind of gratuitous,

like, first month, but the season started halfway through October. So even though it's November first now, it's been like some teams have still played nine games or so. So unnecessary, but if we got time, we can have some fun chats about that. Let's start about the Canucks, though. So I think they're a very interesting team to follow this season, because obviously they had that massive success last year, right, in terms of the regular season play, all the accolades they got for it, and then making it to game seven in round two against the Oilers and really pushing them to their limit before ultimately falling short. But then what I find interesting about them is their approach this offseason, both from a personnel perspective, but also the clear mandate to sort

of stylistically at least tinker with the system and make some sort of changes offensively to sort of combat the inevitable regression, and I commend them for that, right? Because oftentimes we see teams fall into this trap where they have a magical season the way the Canucks had last year, where I believe they led the league in 5-on-5 shooting percentage, right? And they're scoring a lot of goals as a result in winning,

and then they just expect that to carry over. They don't really make any changes because teams don't want to mess with a good thing when they're winning. And then the inevitable regression strikes, they start losing, and they act blindside, and they're like, oh, we don't know what's wrong. I can't believe this happened to us, though it happens to every single team year over year.

The Canucks sort of, and I much prefer this alternative, not only made personnel changes and brought new players in, but also clearly try to open up their game a little offensively to attack more off the rush because that's something they were lacking in last year. And there's been some hiccups along the way in these first nine or ten games they've played, right? So we're going to get into that and some of the individual performances as well. What are your thoughts in terms of like the first nine games they've played here, the early returns on that,

and whether there's enough on tape now for Rick Tocke to confidently stick with it as opposed to being like, all right, well, this isn't necessarily working for us. Let's go back to what was tried and true for us last season. Well, I think this was a necessary evolution if the Canucks wanted to be a team that could truly go on deep playoff runs because you talk about that regression and how it often blindsides teams, but the Canucks already got a taste of that from the All-Star break until the end of the regular season and even in the playoffs where it was so difficult for them to manufacture to manufacture a legit scoring chance to score goals.

And I think that was a moment where the team, the coaching staff, the front office really realized that, okay, if we're going to be a team that can make noise in the playoffs year after year, it can't just be based off this defensive identity that they carved, that they need to be a team that can actually create more at five on five because they were one of the more anemic teams when it came to generating five. and five shots last season. So I liked the idea of them sort of going out and signing guys like DeBrusk and Heinz, Sherwood, Wingers who could bolster this group speed and really deep in the overall

winger depth. It's been a learning process. There have been definitely growing pains as far as actually implementing systems tweaks, kind of opening things up. They've lost a little bit of that defensive solidity that they have last year. but because it's only been, what, nine games, even though they've been pumped their last two games, well, I know the Carolina game was,

went to O.T., but I'm saying pumped. No, if you watch that game, though, it was like Kevin Lankan's heroics and, like, acrobatic highlight reel saves that really kept them on the precipice of giving them a chance to fight back and claw their way back and force that over time because I feel like in lesser hands

or if he just wasn't up to the task, that game could have slipped away. Like it was in that second period, in particular, it was like that could have escalated to a five, six, one game pretty easily. And he made a couple saves to keep them in and they ultimately wound up for a lot of an out of T. 100%. So I'm, because it's only been nine games, because they're integrating a lot of new personnel, because they're trying to evolve as a team, I'm not going to overreact to

nine games where it's been a mixed bag and they're still figuring out how to get to their a game just because it's a lot of changes involved. I guess the interesting conundrum for me here is acknowledging, their willingness to go this route and kind of change on the fly, we saw that reflected by a lot of the additions you highlighted there up front, right? On the blue line, though, we saw them take a very different tack there where, you know, the players they bring in certainly with DeHarnay, although, you know, that third pair has done well in a sheltered role, but the reliance they have now in particular on that second pair with Susie and Myers who have really been struggling this

season, the impetus, if you're going to play that way, you kind of need the whole. horses on the back end to facilitate it and distribute the puck and get it up ice accordingly. And they've sort of been lacking there. And the result of it has been a very heavy burden, even more so than last year on Quinn Hughes. Now he's certainly uniquely equipped to be up to the task. But just from like a usage perspective in particular, I find it interesting because I know that as last year progressed and it was easier to do so after, you know, they banked all

those points early in the season and felt comfortable that they were going to make the playoffs and in their standing in the West, they started, you know, trying by design to like real back his minutes and make sure that he'd be fresh and ready to go for the postseason. In this case, like, we're already seeing his ice time climbing into even in the devil's game, right, where they're losing. He's still playing in the mid-20s. And I'm not sure that's necessarily, he's certainly capable of it, right? Like, if anyone can handle it, it's him. We see top defensemen in the league playing 24, 25, 26 minutes a night. But I do think in an ideal world that conducts probably don't want to expose him to that type of workload, where he's just out there

that much, taking extra hit, kind of additional hits that he doesn't need to be. But I do. but I think at least for now until they figure it out or potentially make some improvements on the back end they kind of have to if they're going to play this way. For sure. And I remember in the off season, that was sort of the theme of how I viewed the work that they did in the summer where I really like their forward acquisitions, especially bank for buck.

They didn't go out and sign any reckless contracts. But then I looked at their back end and went, if you're going to try and evolve and be more dynamic offensively, then your back end just isn't competitively. with that. They sort of doubled down on this philosophy from last year where it's, okay, you've got Hughes and Hironic, your two puck movers are two most skilled offensive defense spin on one pair, and then you've just got four tree chunks who in the classic, yeah, take up space and classic playoff environment are tough, big, mean, physical to play against, break up the cycle.

And yeah, when you get to the playoffs and the officiating standard changes, yeah, a player like Tyler Myers or Carson Sussie, they can get away with a little bit more clutch. and grabbing, but especially having $5 million tied up between Myers and DeHernay right from day one that felt suspect, especially in DeHernay's case where they had gone out and already signed Derek Forbert to sort of be their penalty killer, provide that sort of size and physicality on the third pair. From day one, I think everybody, before training camp even started, I think we were all looking at Forbord Dayhrenay on paper as a third pair and going you've got two tree trunks that can't move

and can't make plays with the puck. This is probably going to be a disaster and it took all of one game for the Canucks to Park Dair and in the press box. And they've been fortunate that Branstrom's been able to come in as a throw in as part of the Tucker Pullman contract dump and give them some of that speed and puck moving on the third pair. But that stands out as a definite weakness

as they try and evolve and become a more offensive team because the splits between, mean, the Canucks performance when Quinn Hughes is on the ice at 5-1-5 versus any other pair is so stark. They're two completely different teams. They certainly are. It's interesting looking at their underlying profile right now, in particular in comparison, on different platforms, I guess, and I want to get into that a little bit with you, because I think offensively, sport logic has them going from 15th last season to 4th and inner slot shots,

20th to 14th and expected goals generated, and I think those are positive improvements, certainly, in terms of like sustainability and accomplishing what they're trying to achieve here. Defensively, though, natural statric has them all the way up at sixth in terms of fewest expected goals allowed. Now, Sporologic has them 28th. And that's the biggest gap that I've seen across the league. And I do wonder whether part of that is Spore Logic kind of baking in rush chances against more heavily and kind of weighting them as more dangerous looks that kind of pad that total.

And then you watch the two most recent games in particular where they got exposed a little bit by the hurricanes and the devils off the rush, especially the devils who created a bunch of their offense doing so. And, you know, those two teams are very fast. They're going to play high pace. They're going to give a team like the Canucks with their current back end construction trouble. But I do wonder whether that's kind of like a red flag or a sign of things to come, I guess. Listen, they're four, two, and three on the season. So I think they'll take those points. I think in particular within the context of the Pacific Division,

if you're ever going to take half a season or whatever to experiment with stuff and kind of go through some of these obstacles, the Pacific Division is probably the place to do it because no one's really separating themselves, especially with the Oilers' early season struggles. So I think a lot of those teams they're competing with have their own flaws and their own issues they're going to have to work through. So I think they can get away with it and probably it's more palatable to them.

But that's something I'm going to be tracking moving forward because while the improvements offensively are there, even though, you know, the shooting percentage is kind of back to a more normal perspective. So the goal scoring hasn't necessarily affected it. I do think they're on the right path there. But it's ultimately a question of like, you know, net positive in terms of how much you're given up for us, how much you're subtracting defensively. And so that's something to be tracked for me, I think, moving forward.

Yeah, it's funny you mention that because I remember the other day looking at some of those defensive metrics, at least that are tracked publicly and going, yeah, there's no way the connects have been a top five defensive team in the NHL. And it's exactly what you mentioned. it's the rush stuff, right? Because of course, with these public models, they're essentially tracking the quality chances based off shot location. And it's completely different if that shot is from, let's say, the cycle

and you've got sticks and bodies in the way and your goaltender's set as opposed to if it's a cross-slot pass on a 2-1-1, and it's the same location. It might be weighted the same in a public expected goals model, but totally different quality of scoring chance in practice. And yeah, they have been a lot. lot more leaky off the rush. And this is where I remember even when we were discussing this idea of the

Canucks trying to evolve and be a team that can generate more offensively, this was one of the question marks I had is can you turn the dial up on how much you want to create off the rush without affecting the defensive foundation that was a hallmark of their success last year? Because the Connucks were one of the best teams last year at defending the rush. It's not because necessarily they had the best blue line. It's almost the style that they played where they were so conservative managing the puck through the neutral zone. They didn't want to make any creative plays at the offensive blue line.

They were always looking for the safe play, dump and chase. And so first of all, they were just never turning pucks over at the offensive blue line, which is one of the most common ways rush chances are created. The other thing, too, is when they would recover pucks on the forecheck, it was a lot of keep-way. It was a lot of just like long offenses on possessions and a lot of low to high. And yeah, they were sort of reliant on these like point shots. And it was sort of inefficient and kind of ugly to watch.

But as a byproduct, they possessed the puck a ton. And it was difficult for opponents to sort of get it back and hem the Canucksin. And so now that they're trying to be a team that is a little bit more ambitious on zone entries, they have been turning more pox over. That's been really evident in the early going. And so to this point, and again, it's only nine games, you expect growing pains, it's not to say that this isn't going to work long term. But I would say that the drop-off defensively seems to be more pronounced

than the gains that they've had offensively to this point. Again, that's not to say that there haven't been a lot of promising offensive signs because there have been moments, especially in, let's say, the Pittsburgh game, last weekend where you're like, oh boy, this team can fly off the wrong. rush now, especially with some of the new personnel that they have. And part of it, too, is getting like DeBrask and Pedersen going. That's going to be a massive part of this whole game plan of evolving offensively. But that is something that I'm going to be watching is they've been, especially in the last two games, sort of torched off the rush. Yeah, I guess part of it is in service of like preparing yourself

when the games ultimately matter much more in the postseason. And so you want to kind of keep that in mind as well when judging this stuff, especially early in the season. It has only been nine games. I do think a California trip coming up here can do wonders for helping iron some of those things out because you're going to get games against the ducks who aren't creating anything offensively, the sharks who obviously, although, you know, the sharks who have won three in a row now. I mean, you want to be careful. On a roll. Careful in the shark tank.

And then the Kings who, I know they put up whatever, six or seven goals against the golden nights on T&T the other night, but for the most part are pretty unwilling to engage offensively themselves. So that's a better environment for them. But yeah, I thought it was stunning when I wasn't preparing for this because certainly watching those two most recent games, it was very evident and visible on screen, but then just seeing that Sporologic has only the predators, Canadians, penguins, and ducks as worse expected goals against teams. It's pretty stunning compared to the lofty heights they were at last year. Thank goodness, though, for Kevin Lankinen, though, right? I mean, getting him for what

they did for a song, essentially, especially with the uncertainty around Demko's health. I mean, he's almost shown that he's, like, they're up to a task for a lot of these situations. They put them in, not that that's something you want to rely on, especially considering he's never really had that type of workload if this extends into the middle of the season. But for now, like, his ability to laterally move across and make some of these, like, gymnast-like saves. I mean, I'm surprised Kevin Woodley hasn't burst in here right now at the first mention of Kevin Lankin, but he's been phenomenal. And so at least that's a bit of a civil lining that he's been able to kind of like paper over some of these growing periods. Yeah, that's another thing I was thinking about, especially as

she loves surrender to six schools against for the second. second time and his third start of the season was, how would the Canucks goaltending situation and overall record look if another team had snagged Lankan in earlier in free agency and they were left to roll with Shilovs and, I don't know, Patera, goaltending tandem, like the temperature around the whole Thatcher Demko situation would have been a lot more urgent than it is right now, which is a positive because,

you don't want there to be any urgency around well how quickly can Demko come back and help save this but yeah he's been phenomenal and not just the the explosive lateral movement which we saw against Carolina but just overall how common composed as movements are in the crease

whether it's passes across the slot or even on some of these on-man rushes or breakaways when players are trying to move forehead back make forehand backhand moves it's been so impressive to watch how he never overcommits and he's always able to exert almost like the perfect amount of force to follow the puck carrier without overcommitting

and leaving a hole somewhere else that the attacker can take advantage of he's tracking the puck exceptionally well it's been so so impressed at the watch and even that's great but there's going to be certain situations where you almost have to go off script and freelance And I think in particular of the game they played in Florida earlier this season where there were a few instances where I was like, all right, I'm just going to need to like throw technique out of the window here and make a couple outrageous saves. And he did that.

Both. Yeah, certainly the one that I can think of where he reached behind himself against the Blackhawks as well, right, and kind of stole a goal there. So yeah, he's been really good. Okay, if you don't have any other notes on kind of this and just a general philosophy of the team, I want to get into now Elias Pedersen's game because I feel like that's sort of, I don't even want to say the Elephant's a room because it's, It's like so visible and also such a big talking point, especially in this market. But I think league wide because he was so good, obviously, two years ago when the team was floundering at the start of last year. And then ever since really he signed that massive $11.6 million deal, just the splits, it's like a big convenient because it's a random sort of arbitrary cut off to be like, all right, well, though whatever 20 games he played after he signed that deal in the playoffs and the start of this year compared to previously.

at the same time though, both the production and also like the shot volume and just the eye test of watching the way he's operating in the offensive zone are in such stark contrast that I feel like we need to do kind of like an unpacking or investigation of this. No one is more familiar with his game than you certainly having tracked the entirety of his career here and seeing it up close. What are you seeing from him? Are there signs that we can kind of point to as like rational explanations beyond like random. gossip and rumors and kind of like outside factors and like stuff that maybe might be worrisome that you generally need to be more cognizant of that's kind of explaining this dip in production. Yeah, well, one thing I wanted to debunk right off the bat, at least based off my opinion, is I've heard this idea that, oh, Pedersen and Tocke, maybe they're just not a fit as coach and player

or that there's something restrictive about Vancouver system that, oh, maybe a more rough and tumble off the forecheck offensive creator like J.T. Miller can thrive in playing under Tocke and in that system. But for a skilled player that likes to make plays off the rush like Pedersen, it's just not a fit. I don't believe that at all, especially now that the Canucks are trying to evolve and be a team that's more dynamic in transition. I don't see any signs of his creativity being, like, as if there's a cap on it or that he's restricted or prevented from being able to do certain things. I don't buy that at all. I think the biggest thing that sends out to me is physically he just looks off, right? The only moments where he's looked dangerous this season are when he's played with Garland

and it's as if he gets the puck with time and space and he's making a smart play. IQ-wise, it's IQ and playmaking are the only thing that sort of stand out because everything else physically, his skating, his shot, it looks. nowhere near how it usually does when he's playing at his peak. And I think, of course, a lot of this can trace back to the knee tendonitis that he was dealing with last season, which he opened up about at the end of the playoffs end of season media availability, where he said, yeah, this knee tendonitis was affecting me from January onward. It's no coincidence that his scoring and production completely cratered from February till the end of the season

and into the playoffs. And at training camp as well, he admitted that it's still something that he's working through. And even if you just look at the NHL edge data, you see solid proof. Like, this isn't just speculation at this point. His speed bursts over 20 miles per hour

are down significantly compared to last year. He was right around the top 25% of NHL forwards in that category last year. This year he's below the 50th percentile. His usual shot velocity is missing zip. I mean, people point out, when Patterson came into league as a rookie and had the 10 goals in his first 10 games, he was so clinical. He had this killer instinct that when he got the puck in the slot, it was bang, bang.

There was no hesitation. He was going to wire it top corner. And I remember my second year talking to other goaltenders and other players about what makes Patterson special. One of the things that they said was the way that he can hunt the really awkward position for a goalie to try and stop. right beside the ear where Goliya has to kind of like shrug to to perfectly find that spot. It's like he could ruthlessly target that spot

every single time and it came with such a strong zip and was such a quick release that it was so difficult to stop. Whereas now you just don't see that zip. And again, looking at the NHL edge data, he had 70 shot attempts last season, clocked between 80 to 100 miles per hour, which is nearly one per game. This year through nine games so far,

just one shot attempt in that range. that was 82 miles per hour, like barely reaching that category. We spooked over, yeah. And we saw that last game, right? Towards the end of the first period, Pedersen tons of time and space in the slot. Took a lot of time first to corral and try and look at Markstrom, see where exactly wanted to put it.

And there was like a sense of anticipation that, okay, now he can pick a spot. And it was almost what you'd expect from like Ilya McKeyev, like straight into the goalie's crest. just like not even really any sense of velocity or a strong thrust behind it either. Yeah, to steal your own words, you described as lacking authority and conviction, and I think that's exactly correct. Like, it just wasn't threatening and it was kind of startling to see that.

I mean, if you go back to, I think in particular, like the bubble playoffs, for example, I know that's a time that most people don't want to remember because everyone was just down bad around the world. But like, I've got a mix. You just find it on my Twitter feed of him just. meticulously just sniping shots in various forms, right? Whether it was a wristier off the wing or whether it was from that one-time slot on the power play.

And it was such a legitimate weapon he had in his bag. And it was just, I mean, it was beautiful to watch, but it was also just so threatening. And that's completely seemed to, like, just dissipate from his repertoire. And it's bizarre. You mentioned the shot velocity. I mean, even just in general, the shot rate itself, right? Like, the shot attempts are down to 11.4 per hour. All situations this year, they were around 15 last year.

and nearly 18 the year before. Shots on goal are down to 4.8 per hour, and that's cut in half from around the 7.5 to 8 per hour range that he's lived in for the majority of his career. And so that kind of like lack of willingness to shoot as well, maybe it's just a reflection of either a lack of health or lack of confidence. And honestly, just thinking about it,

is there a player in the league that is more like visibly transparent in terms of like the confidence they're feeling in their game and how they're just moving in terms of like the swag they operate with. Like when he's at his best in his peak form and the way he's just sort of imposing his will on games in various ways to when he's struggling like this. And he just looks so unwilling almost like he needs to be forced to get in these situations. Like you mentioned that the shot in particular that stands out against the devils, I feel like the only reason he really took it was because the clock was winding down. There was only like three or four seconds left. Like even though he was in a prime shooting location,

I feel like in different circumstances early in the period probably would have like pulled the puck back out or something or looked for a different play. And he just shot it because he had to because the clock was going to expire. And so I don't know, you put all these things together and it's clearly alarming not only because of the financial commitment the organization has made in him certainly, but I think just ultimately for whatever goals this team has this season,

it's clear that to achieve that they just have to unlock him offensively. 100%. and even, like, that play at the end of the first period wasn't designed for Pedersen. I actually, before, like, when they were setting up for the draw and Pedersen oftentimes we'll spend some time on the right flank in that one-timer spot, off the draw, they switched. Quinn and Peterson, where they almost had Quinn stationed,

and it was a clear, okay, if they win the draw in a certain way, the point is to set Quinn Hughes up for one-timer, and Hughes's shot has improved significantly. but that that immediately spoke volumes to me like i turned to jeff patterson in the press box and went like they have quins the quince set up for the one-timer instead of peterson which would have been wild to anybody who watched peterson earlier earlier in his career and and knew how much of a weapon that one-timer could could be he seems so reluctant to to take advantage of that and it almost seems like you know there's there's going to be a lot of

discussion around the power plane, we can get into that later. But one of, one of the reasons why I think Vancouver's man advantage is struggling, not just this season, but going back to the second half of last year, is because I almost look at him on the first unit and go, like,

what's his role? Like, what purpose is he serving? Where, even when earlier in his career, penalty killers adjusted to sort of take that one timer away, and he wasn't taking as many of those attempts, the effect of that was it was almost like a gravitational effect like like step

curry on a shooting on the shooting floor where it's like okay if defenders are going to cheat towards him like somebody else is going to be open as a result and so oftentimes in the bumper um when this team had horvatt horvett had so much extra time and space in the middle because penalty killers were cheating over to petters and they really had to respect that shot whereas now there's no real shooting thread and you talk about a shot rate falling off it's been especially profound the drop-off on the man advantage. And nothing's really going through him as a playmaking threat. He's not the one that's driving zone entries through the neutral zone to help get set up.

He's just sort of there. And they need him to get back to that game-breaking version of himself if they want to do any real damage in the playoffs this year. Yeah, I really feel like there's, I mean, this is true for a lot of star players, but his eye test is such a barometer for how he's feeling about his game. It's just, it's so transparent and so visibly evident. It's all out there to see. And it's just like there's no hiding it. And it makes sense based on the production, right?

Like I mentioned it, not that we need to even quantify it because you can just see watching these games. But as I mentioned, he was up to what, 29 goals and 75 points in 61 games last year. And then in the 42 games he's played since, including the postseason, it's seven goals, 24 points. And that's just not good enough. Now, what's almost is startling for me, and I think this is kind of like goes hand in hand because if he was shooting more and more of a threat in there and more sort of less tentative

and more decisive, this would probably come along with it. But the Knoxler being outscored with him, 6'4 at 5-15 on the ice. He has a 49.5% expected goal share as well. And the reason why I cite that is he's never been below 50% in his career since his rookie season. And that's a remarkable feat considering some of the lean years this organization has had in that time and his ability to still be a driver despite that environment was always such an impressive thing to me and like really spoke to sort of the gravitational pull he had and his ability to make everyone better around him. Now, I do like certain things that I've seen. I think Garland has been, other than Quinn Hughes, probably the team's most consistent and dangerous player this

season. And I like the idea of especially without Joshua available, making them a tandem and kind of trying to unlock Pedersen's game a little bit by sort of you know, not having to be as puck dominant because Garland can do some of that stuff and some of the playmaking and allow him to maybe hide in the weeds a little bit more offensively. We saw that kind of pay dividends and the one goal he has scored against the Penguins, right? Where Garland has the puck behind the net, he's able to sort of like step into a shot and actually show us some flashes of that player he used to be. But we haven't seen nearly enough of it yet. And I've almost been surprised that that hasn't helped kind of steer him in that direction a little bit more. And that's kind of the

concerning thing to me because I do feel like he's being put in a position at least based on some of those adjustments. If there's something there to tap into, we would have probably seen a bit more of it now. So that's the thing that I think that I hold on to is like, I'm a little bit concerned at this point. Yeah, especially because after that Pittsburgh game, it had been a few contests where that line had started to show flashes. It was Garland and Pedersen and Holglander and you were thinking to yourself, okay, right now Pedersen's having a really tough time using his skating to dynamically drive play to lead a lot of zone entries with possession to be as puck dominant right and so if you leave those responsibilities to garland

and home glider to win battles off the forecheck to make plays down low in the offensive zone to be the ones that sort of draw the attention of the opposition because they they got the puck behind the net and the other team has to turn their back now you can lean on peterson to rely on his smarts and his instincts, which again, if there's been one attribute that we've seen in flashes from him, it's still been those smarts and instincts to get open in and around the slot and just trust that, okay, his wingers can actually get him the puck, and maybe he can thrive in that way.

Even you look at the streak that he had, where he had points in three consecutive games, first point of the season, even a Philadelphia game, it was similar sort of formula. Garland controls the puck behind the net, finds Pedersen the slot. Pedersen sort of one-touch play to a whole line around the back door.

And you thought, okay, okay, if the feet aren't there, if the play driving isn't there, maybe he can just find a way to adapt his game and be a more, more of a threat as a complimentary, just like hanging up high as an F3, finding open space in the slot, and making plays in almost these stationary positions where he's going to have time and space. There are flashes that that was going to work. And then just the last two games, that line has really fell flat. and you reference the fact that the Canucks are losing his minutes at five-on-five, and it's been especially stark because Garland's not just this season,

but historically has been this like five-on-five play-driving ace. So the fact that they still aren't at the point with Garland now that, you know, Pedersen has been able to, and his line has been able to decisively win those matchups, that's becoming concerning for me. It certainly is. other notes on the Canuckswaller here or do you want to go to break? I mean, like just the power play, right? That is another really important storyline where since the All-Star Break last season

and looking at, I believe, those 41 or 42 regular season games between last season and the start of this one. Last I checked, there were 25th in the league and it cost them in the playoffs. The ineffectiveness of the manned advantage, it's been a major storyline the last couple. of games. And I think that's another key storyline to watch as far as can the Canucks be a dangerous team this year is they're going to need that power play to get going. When you look at the amazing start that they got off to last year, a lot of it was powered by this power play that looks so dominant and unstoppable at times. And they've been working through a lot of issues

lately. I think chief among them is the fact that they've never really found that replacement for Beau Horvatt as far as that fourth forward to really round that unit out, experimented with Debrusk early in the season. That didn't work out. Garland more recently, I wonder if Daniel Sprong is going to get a more consistent look there. Maybe he gives more of a shooting presence from the flank. But that is another major area that I look at as they've got to figure it out sooner rather than later. Certainly. All right, let's take our break here. And then we come back. We'll jump into it. I've got a few listener questions that we're going to get into step away from the Canucks a little bit because I think we covered that and kind of take a league-wide view.

So looking forward to that. You're listening to the Hockey P.Ocast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. All right. We're back here on the Hockey P.D.O.Cast with Harmon dial to close the week out. Harmon, here's a question from the P.D.O.cast Discord, one of our loyal listeners and contributors, their backhand sauce asks, which teams with deep prospect pools should try and leverage those prospects towards assets that can help them in the short term? Obviously, every situation is different, but is there a process the team should follow for identifying which prospects to move at their peak value? Um, take this same way you want.

I'm curious for your take on sort of, especially looking within the grand scheme of things of like contenders now who actually have assets to deal with because obviously you'd say, all right, well, yeah, the panthers should, or they're all in their all in window or even the lightning and it's, then you look and it's like,

all right, well, they don't really have any prospects. They don't have any picks. Vegas as well. There's only so much you can do there. Do you have anyone that stands out right away to you as like a team that fits this bill of someone who should be leveraging right now to act decisive

and really kind of push as many chips as they can? Yeah, I mean, for me, Winnipeg stands out. And I think for them, I'd prefer rather than going the rental route like they did last year, it seems like they pushed a lot of chips in last season and obviously didn't quite work out. But I look at the Jets, obviously they're off to another amazing start. And for them to really contend in that central division, especially when you've got Hellebuck and Sheffley being the ages that they are, I think they stand out to me as a team where I look at their prospect pool and compared to other contenders, they've got a lot of pieces.

They've got a pretty deep sort of system there. And they also have some, I think, clear areas that you'd want to address as far as their center ice depth, finding a legit two C. And then even on the back and we'll see the evolution of, I mean, it's helped now having Pionk bounce back the way that he has and Sandbergs look pretty good. But I remember in the offseason, that was a talking point in Winnipeg was maybe the, the need for another top four defensemen. I look at them as a team where they've got the assets, I think it makes sense for them as far as where they are in their contention window.

And I'm not talking again about like giving away your top prospects. And that's the other distinction I want to make in this conversation is this isn't like 10 to 15 years ago where grade A blue chip prospects get moved for especially rentals. You're seeing that even when Carolina went out and got Gensel, for example, took what, like a second round pick, condition, which could have become a first and like three B grade, you know, middle of the road type prospect.

So I like it, Winnipeg as a team that sort of fits that criteria for me. That's a good shout. I get why there and they certainly went, right, with the Tofoli and the Monaghan trades last year. And they have in the past when they feel good about their team, they are actually pretty willing to trade premium assets to try and sort of help themselves in the short term. I get always the calculus for them is these players aren't particularly. really valuable to them because they're cost controlled and you have the team rights to keep them

for six, seven years. And so that's very valuable to them without having that fear of them walking in free agency. I know obviously the Rutgers McRourty situation is a little different there. The team that I have is the Hurricanes. And I'm really glad you brought up the Gensel trade in particular. I think that's sort of the blueprint for them, right? Because according to elite prospects, organizational rankings, which always have them in the top half of the league, despite the fact they're a competing team because they draft pretty astutely, right? They take interesting gambols on players. They always have pick volume.

They traded their eighth, 12th, and 17th ranked prospects within their organization to do so, right? And so the logic from Pittsburgh's perspective was like a quantity of young players, but also around the league, it was, well, most teams just couldn't compete with that because they just, you know, Carolina's 12th best prospect or whatever would be like our second best or third best prospect. And so we just can't justify that for our rentals. So Carolina is uniquely positioned to do so. They already have guys like a young player like Jackson Blake up contributing. We're going to see when when Akeesian comes over, guys like Bradley Nadeau and Scott Morrow

are certainly in the system as well. They also have the pick volume where they have their first. They have their second. They have two thirds. They have a fourth. Like they can experiment with that. And in watching that Canucks game that we cited earlier, they've carried over a lot of what made me more encouraged in the second half about them last year, right?

where they're attacking more off the rush. They're up to fifth and rush chances this season. So it's not purely sort of a expected goal merchant situation where they're just spamming low percentage shots. They certainly do that. But they've kind of fully taken the training wheels off of Marty Natchez in particular. Like he's been flying this season.

He's been incredibly productive. Svecchnikov looks much more like a healthy version of himself than he even was last year. And so with all that in mind. And then also on top of that, the flexibility of they have like $22 million coming off of books. the soft season in Burns, Orlov, Freddie Anderson, Roslovich, and Jesper Fast, like this is the time for them to go.

I know they like the idea of kind of hanging around every year and hoping that this is going to be the year they're finally going to go over to the mountaintop. But I really feel like this would be a very good year for them based on what we're seeing in the early returns from them, the stylistic changes they've made, and all those combination of factors. Like, they're a team that can very easily justify trading a package of prospects and not necessarily completely depleting whatever their upcoming pipeline is and still improving their team. And so even if it is rental like it was against the last year, I think he was so transformational

for them as a legitimate top flight winger for them that another piece or two like that midseason I know it's a running bet on the show that I'm always more down on the hurricanes than consensus. But I really feel like that would be something you could legitimately be excited about. Yeah, I agree. And I've also been encouraged seeing how, um, how their Blue Line has responded to losing Shay and Peschi, that was a concern of mine was, okay, they've lost a lot of town. They obviously also weren't able to retain Gensel in the offseason. So I'd almost wondered would this sort of be like a reload year for them, like wait for some of those contracts to come off the books. And not that they're given up by any means on the season, but sort of looking at it as, you know, they'll still be around the hunt.

They'll still be a really good team. They'll still be a threat in the playoffs. but maybe this isn't their cup here necessarily to really like load up and aggressively make moves the way that they did last trade deadline but to see the way that you know Gossus Baron Walker had fit and that blue line

looks mobile looks quick can still transition the pocket really well their forward group has has looked better than I imagined as well they're like they really impressed me seeing them against Vancouver and I thought they might take a more significant step back and in my mind

I was thinking well maybe you wait for Nikkishen to sort of come over and then you sort of have some excess assets even on the blue line and as far as even some of your prospects that you can deal from deal from that as a position of strength and maybe look at next season as all right now you've got the cat flexibility now you've got some you know strength on the back end like now you maybe go all in but seeing the way that they've started this year I'm really encouraged and I sort of agree with you that they should be looking to leverage some of, again, because of how many picks and prospects that they have,

they should be looking to cash some of those in. This is another year where they're still firmly going to be in the mix as a contender. Yeah, and listen, they're still going to have the occasional game where they out shoot opposition 35 to 60 or whatever and lose 3-1, and it's like, oh, it's Hurricanes

again, but what they showed in that Kinnucks game, what they showed last night, like, they just pick their teeth with the Boston Bruins, like absolutely just steamroll them. I'm really liking what I'm seeing from them and I so I think that makes a lot of sense. The other team that I had on this list is a bit unconventional in the sense that I don't think they're in their Stanley Cup competing window necessarily, and obviously the injuries

in particular to John Marino and Sean Dersey kind of complicate this a little bit because if they're going to be out, I mean, they're each out for a couple of months. If they're going to be out for the majority of the season, we've already seen them kind of hit a bit of a rough patch out for a strong start. But Utah in their first year in that market makes a lot of sense to me because they have the fifth-ranked prospect pool by elite prospects. They used a lot of their pick surplus, especially for this coming season and last year, this past off season already and acquiring some of these players.

But if you look ahead to 2026, they have three seconds that year and two thirds. They still have a lot of assets to play with and obviously a lot of prospects they've drafted recently and the Calf space on top of that. So I'm not advocating for them to like needlessly trade a bunch of this stuff for a rental by any means. But if you can add a young player, especially with a little bit of term, I do think them improving their roster immediately as opposed to doing the coyotes thing from so many years where you're just kind of punting the ball down the road and just being like,

all right, well, this is a thing we'll address in three years. I do think it makes a lot more sense for them to build on this hype and excitement around their organization and sort of feed into that a little bit more aggressively and proactively as opposed to playing the waiting game. Absolutely. And they strike me as a team that not necessarily as far as going out and making big moves at the deadline, but sort of lurking and waiting for. the right opportunity for a potentially transformational player that emerges with

term left in sort of the heart of their prime like I think about a and this is going a while back and obviously these these situations don't always arise but like a jack icel type you know being available and it's like the the number of teams that are going to have the assets cap flexibility and being the right window to take advantage of an opportunity like that is not going to be very long and I look at Utah as a team that's sort of perfectly positioned to sort of bide their time and wait for the right player that fits, you know, maybe not to Eichols caliber, but a young player that maybe becomes out of favor or teams rebuilding and they want to look to get a haul on somebody.

I look at Utah as a team like that where not many teams are positioned with cap flexibility, assets and having this young core and being ready to take the next step. All right, let's end with this question, which I think is an interesting thought exercise. J.R. Jersey asks, what do we think winger prices will look like in a few years. Based on recent contracts we've seen, Lafranier seems like a bargain, same for Jesper Brat and the entire state of Florida, including both the Panthers and the lightning based on the winger's. They've obviously retained the past couple years. All those deals look good. I think this is interesting because obviously the cap went up. It's projected to

keep going up over the next couple of years to a pretty dramatic effect. And just from a team building perspective, we've already sort of seen that teams are always going to be willing to invest heavily in centers and blue liners, right? The goalie market is interesting because we're seeing teams now identify that, all right, we feel like this guy's elite that we have, so we're actually willing to commit significant money to them. But the wingers seem to be a very interesting sort of exception here where it seems like for the most part, you can address that pretty thriftily and retain players at, you know, in that seven-ish million-dollar range, there are legitimate first-line players for long-term. And on the one hand, if the market dictates that, you don't necessarily

want to be in the business of overpaying for something that's not really valued that much, because we've seen teams can get themselves in the trouble where they value their own winger, they pay them, and then if they need to clear cap space or they need to reshuffle things, there aren't really any parties around that want to take on that contract or pay for it by any means. So you don't want to overcompensate that way. But it is interesting to me that as a potential buying opportunity for teams to identify that as sort of, I guess, a bit of a market inefficiency right now. Yeah. I'm surprised that the winger market hasn't taken off more significantly because I look at when Nielander got 11 and a half and you're thinking, okay, the winger market is starting to

really ratchet higher and then it never really took off from there. And maybe that's just a product of, like you've still got some key wingers that are due to yeah, Ranting and Marner and Marner and even somewhere in Vancouver like I'm really curious to see what Brock Besser gets and you know Jason Robertson not this summer obviously but not too far down the road

you've got some legit star wingers that are going to be up for renewal and need new deal soon and that's where you always need that you know those dominoes at the top of the market to create that trickle down effect I think about the way that swim and kind of set the table where, you know, with his cap it, that sort of seemed to affect the capet that, um, Omar got and Ottinger got. Um, and so we'll see. Again, I was surprised.

I thought the Nylander one would sort of set set the table for, okay, the winger market is starting to take off, but I think it helps. And maybe, maybe this is more of like the no state tax thing and Florida teams sort of getting a discount there. But, um, when Gensel and Reinhart took less, I think that's obviously advantageous for other teams that are trying to retain and negotiate with their own winger, especially after the year Reinhardt came off of like 57 goals, getting some Selke votes for him to settle at the number that he did. And again, they won the cop and he's taking a discount and the no state tax thing. But still, looking at that A.A.V., I wonder if that almost sort of like started to cool the market a bit.

Well, it was a panther's example as well, right? I was always a believer that Reinhardt was going to get way less than I saw people speculating before he signed, not only for those factors and the fact that he had success and clearly enjoyed his time and was very valued by the Panthers organization, but also because they've set a pretty clear internal cap with like, obviously Ryanhart is not going to sign for more than whatever Barco was making right now. We saw the Bruins certainly had that in place for years, right, with Bergeron and kind of like being like, all right, everyone's going to take a little bit less than that. It presents an interesting day.

dynamic that we'll see kind of develop around the league where with the cap going up, right, it makes sense that each additional year, there's just more of the pie available, right? And so we're going to see A of these inflate accordingly to represent that. Yet for these teams that have signed star players and set that sort of internal cap and then everyone comes in below them, I'm curious to see whether there's more wiggle room and flexibility there or whether teams are still available to get with that, to kind of get away with that sort of like rigidity that essentially buys them a few extra million dollars against the cap. Yeah. And even on the blue line in the summer, like another example that was Quinn Hughes, right?

Signed his deal, I believe before the start of the 2021-22 season, I think like 7.875 million, like an absolute steal, absolute bargain. And it was mostly, you know, a lot of it was buying RFA years. And so Philip Pironick was due for an extension last summer and had arbitration rights and would have had a really strong case because of the point totals that he put up, massive ice time, and a lot of people in this market were speculating that his cap it would start with an eight, that not that people looked at Philopronic and went, oh, he deserves to be an $8 million defenseman,

but just because of his counting stats and his leverage, that was the expectation. And there was a worry in this market that, especially with the cap going up, that this idea that Hughes being a potential barometer, that, oh, he can't make more than Hughes, that that was, you know, completely outdated contract and the cap's way higher.

Like, you can't use that as, as sort of measuring stick, and ultimately he signed a long-term extension at 7.25 coming in, you know, pretty significantly below the Hughes A-A-A-V. So it still seems like that has some level of impact on where certain guys slot, but you also have to be the right sort of contending team. And it has to be the right situation too,

where in that case it was, okay, well, you're also playing with Hughes. Like you're his partner. There's, like there was extra, I think leverage that the Kinex could flex from that perspective of why he should make less than

than Quinn. Yep. All right. Good stuff. Arend anything you want to plug on the way out? Nothing in particular. Just continue right away at the athletic, both Kinnock stuff and National. So just stay tuned for that.

All right, buddy. Well, be well. It was good to have you on for the first time this season. For so many, I'm sure. That's our last show for the week. I hope everyone has a great weekend. Don't forget to get up early on Saturday morning to watch the Stars Panthers matinee over in Finland and we'll be back Sunday night with our weekly episode with our pal Thomas

Drance to recap the week that was in the NHL. Thank you for listening to the Hockey PEOCast streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network.