The Hockey PDOcast - Confidence Levels for Teams and Hierarchies Within Divisions at the Quarter Mark of the Season

Episode Date: November 17, 2025

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Thomas Drance to take a look at our current confidence levels for teams, and where they stand within their own divisions as we approach the quarter mark of the regular season. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Regressing to the mean since 2015, it's the Hockey P.D.O.cast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name is Dmitra Filippovich. And joining me, as always, for our Sunday special, my good buddy Thomas Trans. Tom, what's going on in? Not much, buddy. It was a fun week, I thought. I enjoyed a lot of the games that we saw this week. I feel like the incredibly compressed Eastern Conference is making for some riveting drama. And I feel like all of these teams are both simultaneously in crisis and one good week away from us talking about how they're coming on or, you know, the general vibe around their outlook completely flipping. Obviously, we've had some incredibly injured teams here.

Teams like the Tampa Bay Lightning now where it's really piling up and the devils. The devils, obviously, with the bizarre Jack Hughes injury. We got the Adrian Kempe for agent extension on Sunday, which really does formalize just how grim this unrestricted for agent class in 2026 is going to be, which changes some dynamics. So I thought it was a pretty fascinating week all around. I feel like what you said there off the top where teams are in crisis but they're one good week away from flipping the vibe

I feel like that could apply to all of us I feel like that's where we're at. Who do you think was more excited by the Adrian Kempai news hitting? Adrian Kempai himself or Alex Tuck? Ooh, yeah, that's a good question. Alex Tuck is going to be sitting pretty as everyone is.

I mean, anyone who makes it to July 1 I think is going to have a wild amount of options and that's why too you're going to hear I'm sure some commentary talking about how Adrian Kempay, you know, as a $10 million player now without ever having been a point per game guy over the bulk of his career. I mean, you know, he's had some seasons, but he's not been a point per game player. And the truth is, is that if Adrian Kempay makes it to July 1, he's such a unique commodity relative to what else was going to be on offer that, you know,

like he's doing the kings of favor, right? I mean, he would have cashed into a greater extent. You know, I understand why he'd lock it in now. LA's a great place to live. You know, there's no reason for him not to. That's another team, by the way, that a week ago, it would have been like, oh, they're precarious here with the Crackin and the Ducks sort of rising in the West. They have a good week and now they feel very stable, especially with this extension kicking in. Point being, you know, these leverage points where, yeah, it feels like a lot.

But in this salary cap world, especially once you factor in the low supply of Kempay-like game breakers with incredible juice, you know, he was going to be one of one if he made it to July 1. He would have been a unique commodity poised to write his own check, basically. So that's sort of why you get these valuations and that dynamics only going to accelerate as the supply continues to dry up. Yeah, I thought that number the AV ultimately coming in at 10.625, we'll see on the structuring. We don't have that yet, but I feel like that comes in low based on my expectation. Now, I'm in the top percentile, I think, of Adrian Kempi appreciators, and what he's done, particularly in the playoff settings, where amidst all the disappointments and constantly losing to the Oilers, he's been the one just constant lock for them in terms of a guy who can play in those types of games and really looks like he belongs and can trade punches with the top players in the game. But also, and this is why we kept talking about this idea that we were reaching this sort of fascinating window between now and September 16th, essentially, with these teams being able to retain their players, giving them that eighth year while they still can. For Kempe, that's a pretty massive luxury as well, considering that's going to be, what, his age 37 season or whatever. And so at that point, it makes a lot of sense for all parties when you look at like the lump sum value as opposed to a year-by-year breakdown for him. Yeah, and I do think the Kings are a good team and a stable situation, relatively speaking.

You know, you can totally understand why a player would sign up for eight more years of living in the California sun and, you know, playing at Crypto.com and which I'm sure will be called something different in time. And, you know, getting used on the power play to defense and getting an opportunity to lose to the Edminton Oilers every playoffs. All right. So here's the plan for today's show. Last week, we did our projections for Team Canada, team U.S. say at the Olympics. That was a really fun one. Yeah, the feedback on it was amazing. And thank you to Matthew Schaefer for really driving home this week, the extent to which he should clearly be on Team Canada's, you know, Olympic radar. And it is, and is on their Olympic radar.

And we're going to get, and we're going to talk about that today, certainly. Don't look at what Jason Robertson has done since you left him off the, the Team USA roster, though, because he seemingly took that very personally. Here's a plan for today's show. Fair enough. I'm sorry, Jason. We're roughly at the quartermark or so, right? The teams are going to be approaching the 20-game mark in terms of games played here this week. And so we thought it would be a good time for us to take a bit of a big picture snapshot of the league and where things stand.

And I thought the best way to do that would be just breaking it down division by division. And maybe we can work our way down in a top-wise manner and sort of talk about where all the teams are at. Either things were excited about potential concerns or limiting factors and sort of where they sit in the playoff shuffle as well. Let's start with the Central because we've got a West Coast bias here on the PDO cast. And so we're going to start with the West and the Central. And it's fitting that we start this with the Colorado Vlance, right? Who do play those aforementioned Matthew Schaefer led Islanders today. And we're recording before that game happens.

I'm excited to watch that after the fact. But 12-1 and 5 record plus 30 goal differential. They've jumped up to as they should be a pretty definitive Stanley Cup favorite at the moment. And I think the market has them at like a 17% important. applied probability to win the cup, which is very high, especially at this point of the year. And at the same time, it feels low based on what we watch through the first six weeks, because barring massive issues and Valens Ches out, they promote Gavin Brinley in that spot, that stuff's going to happen.

At the same time, it feels like, as we've spoken about, there's so much better equipped than they have been in the past couple years to navigate those types of injuries because they're not just a one-line team. They have guys like Brindley who can step into a scoring round produce. And so they're an absolute buzz saw. like top down, everyone right now is almost operating at a different wavelength than anyone else in the league where you look at some of the underlying metrics even, and it's like, oh, Brent Burns, Josh Manson, they're only at like a 57% expected goal share.

It's like, that seems kind of low on the abs, whereas meanwhile you would just transpose it onto any other team and you'd be like, this is one of the best defense pairings in the league that we need to be talking about. They're dominating every time they're out there. And so, especially at 5-1-5, the power play has still been lagging behind to the point where the top line is scoring more often at 5-15 than they are. when they have an extra player on the ice, assuming that comes around,

it's about as flawless a team right now as I think you're going to get at this stage of the season. Yeah. And they're just built to always play the way they want to play. You know, the Brindley emergence has been a ton of fun to watch. I mean, there's some shades of early career Connor Garland

on his tape when you watch him just win battles and the way that he's cutting back, given his lack of experience on the wall, just completely flummoxing larger checkers is special. And I don't think he's out of place playing a top six role for them, even if maybe you'd prefer a bigger-bodied player in that spot come playoff time. The fact that you've got to break glass in case of emergency,

and it's a guy who looks perfectly fine as the fourth best or fifth best winger on a team that you could see making a deep run, that's an embarrassment of riches. Two things on Brindley. One, unbelievable, harkening back to our show, last week called by you talking about how excited you were to see Gavin Bridley in person. And he scores the winner. And then he delivers. And our listeners certainly enjoyed that.

Although I also was shouting out Bartakov and he got, he got his ankles absolutely broken by Quinn Hughes, defending the point. Oh, that'll happen to the best of us. 100%. The other thing on Brinley and, you know, this stuff tends to work out. You kind of make your own luck in this league. And it just seems like for good organizations or ones that have it hum in the way they have you right now. Timing always works out in your favor. And how about the timing of getting Brinley's the way.

for the two-year extension that kicks in next year at an AV that's going to be below the league minimum in that second season when he's kind of entering his prime. And then a couple days later, it's like, oh, by the way, Gavin, congrats. You're going to play in a scoring role in our top six. A couple points right out of the gate playing with that line. And I imagine his scoring profile is going to look different as long as he's playing there as opposed to the whatever eight or nine minutes he was playing on the fourth line. So it's funny how it works out that way. That's how it's done. Well, and, you know, it's little stuff with the abs, right? I mean, we've talked about Malinsky in the past, for example, and how, you know, his depth minutes allow them to just play

the same way because of what he does. But even guys like Jack Akon, right, like as injuries pile up and you have, you know, Jack Akon going up, it's like Akon taking fourth man's ice off the rush and helping you get the puck moving vertically looks pretty good, right? They're, the discipline with which they always seem to have the Bartakovs of the world, the Brinleys of the world, the Akons of the world, you know, like, like Jack Akon's basically in like the honorary Jacob McDonald's role of just like elite American League puck mover who's ready to play a different type of hockey for the avalanche that a lot of other teams wouldn't find space for but for them it makes it work in all of those depth minutes I think that really adds to their floor in the

regular season generally speaking and then one thing you also buy because if we're we're talking Stanley Cup odds right like one one one thing that stands out to me for example would be the Carolina Hurricanes at plus 800 sort of come in next after the abs and And to some extent, I like just buying those two favorites because part of what you're buying when you buy those future bets, in my view anyway, is you're buying the two most aggressive front offices that you know will swing a bet that at some point anyway gives you one of those positive value cashouts because their odds will spike thereafter. Plus, you know, you feel somewhat confident that those teams are at least playing into the second round. And so there's actually like an additional value proposition that's at play for both the abs and. the Carolina Hurricanes just because we trust that they'll add. Yeah, not only they're clearly distancing themselves from the other teams and their respective

conferences, but they also probably won't look like this come to postseason because they're going to be aggressively adding, especially in the Hurricanes case where they have so much flexibility to add whatever they want. So in sticking with the central band, you've got the stars second and do you feel like it's fair to sort of view this as the abs in their own tier, than the stars, and then you get into that mix with the mammoth and the Jets, and they're being pretty sizable gaps between the two, because I think heading into the year, certainly, we sort of lumped the abs and the stars together. It seems like they're just perennially distant to be on a collision course, and they still

are in the second round with the playoff formatting in the central. Stars are a team that I think you and I have been slightly concerned as they've navigated some injuries up front in the early going in terms of how reliant they've been on the power the fact that they don't really shoot the puck or the shot volume isn't there but they're getting by with efficiency because their top players are so good now that number one rank power play is absolutely devastating you watch the way they pick apart opposing pks and working that low triangle and having a guy like wyatt johnston just cooking around the net as a dual threat there are a lot of avenues for their for them to succeed there it's interesting when you compare these two teams though

the abs have done so much of their heavy lifting at five-on-five and have been clearly the team there. And then the stars, one of their limiting factors, has been the 5-1-5 play. And yet they've gotten the results through the power play. And we know that's going to have an outsized importance, especially early on in the playoffs where a lot of these games are going to be pretty tight. It's going to be about capitalizing on your man and advantage opportunities. And I'd expect the abs to be better than they've been on the power play so far because the personnel is just too good not to be. Yet the stars are clearly the superior team in that regard alone. And so that kind of makes it a fascinating way to compare and contrast these two teams.

I think the, I mean, first of all, you'd hope more than anything that these teams can avoid playing each other in the first round, although maybe not for our entertainment value, because that game seven, I still remember as being one of the great hockey games the last decade, frankly. The stars, you know, the way I look at it anyway is the way that the abs are playing to me is more formidable and is more sustainable and they should be in a different tier as a result, right? I mean, what the aves do and do best is better than anyone else's best thing at the moment. In my opinion, I think there's clear distance between these two teams in terms of that overall profile. But we know that Dallas can't be written off because of the rant and in effect, because of the power play, because a lot of stuff has gone wrong for them and they're still buzz sawing through the Western Conference despite all of that. I also think we think that they'll be better five on five as the season goes on, right? I mean, this isn't who we think they are, right?

Yeah, part of that was like they had that stretch without, especially Rupa Hintz and Matt D. Shane, where they just like had a noticeable lack of speed. And so a lot of it was just having to create through that half court offense, through those tip plays and Haines comes back and it looks a little bit different. Certainly, but Harley's going to be out now week to week. And so they're going to have to manage that. He wasn't necessarily playing to his standard to begin with. I imagine he's been nursing this for a while before he finally got shut down. But that'll be interesting to see. But ultimately, you know, to circle back to Jason Roberts and think, six goals, three assists, 19 shots.

goal in the three games since we did that Olympic roster show. And so I'm glad to see the regression is hitting in for him. Do you want to get to the next year then? Would you put the Jets and the mammoth in the same class despite the sort of preseason expectations and obviously what the Jets did last season? I don't think I would because I view the mammoths five on five game, their speed, their sort of like backweighted profile where there's a variety of players that you expect to be better, you know, by March than they are today, ahead of where the Jets are at. You know, I was able to watch the Jets live this week because they rolled through Vancouver, and I think they really miss, they miss those sort of Lars Eeler, or sorry, Nikolai Eilers,

they miss those Lars Eller. I feel like Lars Eller would fit in perfectly on this team with his game. He would, right, that's exactly it. I'm actually I'm kind of shocked. He's not on this team. He feels pretty Jetsy. Yeah, defensive acumen and winning some draws. The Nikolai Eelers reloads in the neutral zone and just picks his perimeter shot game-breaking element that the Jets used to have as sort of a secondary layer behind, you know, the just overall veteran know-how and skill that goes up and down their lineup.

That's absolutely missed. They're missing like a dynamic game breaking element outside of their top line. I think that's abundantly clear when you watch them play live, but it's also abundantly clear. I think when you watch them play on television. I just don't know that they have the team speed required to, I don't know that they have the team speed required here to really be like a cup threat, the way I was taking them pretty seriously as a cup threat in much of the last two seasons. Which isn't to say that I think they're poor or anything or should, you know,

be in a significantly lower tier with teams like St. Louis or Minnesota. I think they're step up from that, especially because of the Hellebuck effect. But I see The Mammoth is having far. more upside, which isn't reflected at the moment in that data. Yeah, to your point on the Jets, it's just that instant shot of adrenaline, kind of a speed differential, right, where they lull you to sleep playing at a pace, and then all of a sudden you get a guy like Eelers out there, and he's just flying around and he kind of catches the opposing defense off guard. It's much more static, I think, right now in terms of the pace they can play at. And I was speaking about

this with Harmon on the Friday show, so we don't necessarily need to dig into it too much further. But just to hammer home your point about the team speed, that's reflected in a lot of the stats you look at, right? They're one of the worst teams in generating office. the rush. They're not really able to sustain offensive zone possession. They're spending so much time in their own zone and the defensive metrics have slipped accordingly. Now, a significant portion of this chunk of data we're working with or even the viewings we've seen of them have come without three of like what, their six most valuable skaters. And all those guys are back now. We've got a couple games of Dylan Sandberg and the role he's going to play and just making everything

makes sense on that blue line. Lowry coming back. And then obviously they're going to need Perfetti to shoulder an even bigger load in terms of offensive creation considering the guys he's playing with at 5-1-5. So it'll be really interesting to see kind of how they progress from here. You got any other thoughts on closing out the rest of the central when you get into that wild blues Blackhawks tier and then the Predators are obviously lagging behind?

I was kind of surprised, I guess part of it is the markets are pretty smart in terms of acknowledging underlying numbers and looking at predictability versus early season variants. And so for the Blackhawks, obviously, if you dig a bit deeper, you look at their 5-1-5 numbers, it's more reflective of the team that belongs lower in the standings and lower in the central division pecking order, yet they keep kind of humming along, 9-5 and 4 record, top 10 in points percentage, they've got the fourth best power play, they've got the league

leading team state percentage right now with Spencer Knight just playing remarkable hockey. And I guess the one sort of thing you'd point to for them in terms of an improving outlook to kind of bring that underlying profile up is you watch that game on Saturday night against the Toronto Maple Leafs, the team we're going to talk about later that's certainly struggling in their own regard. But guys like Lev Shinov improving as the year goes along with more reps,

Connor Bedard kind of flexing his muscles and creating more Frankie Nazar coming back now and providing a beautiful setup for a key goal in that game. They do have personnel that theoretically we should bake in some room for improvement as the air goes along, right? It's not like this is necessarily a veteran group, and it's like, all right, the first 15 games that we have on them is just what they're going to be the rest of the season. So I don't think anything is expecting them to finish top 10 in point percentage, but I was a little bit surprised to see, especially with some of the concerns we have about the Blues in particular. Yeah.

They just cannot buy a save. Right. That might turn around, but also there's some pretty kind of flashing red warning signs right now in terms of the way they've been playing. 100%. I do think the Blackhawks belong. I think the Blackhawks are the best value if you were looking to place a long shot bet in the central division

I wouldn't recommend it I think Not to win the division but I think to make the playoffs at this point Considering the state of the West Right and how So what are their, seven, eight? What are their playoff odds? That's a good question. Okay, I'll figure it out

But the, there are odds to win the division anyway They're plus 15,000. I mean, it's not going to happen because of the Colorado Avalanche. Yeah, I think understandably so. Yeah. But the, I mean, at the very least, you look at the amount of players Lev Shunov's age or Renzel's age or Olivier Moor's age or on and on down the list.

I didn't even mention Nazar or Badard there. I mean, not that they're a team whose profile looks like it has staying power today, but I don't think we'd be shocked if that profile looks different, you know, in December and January. They at least have one of those sorts of profiles where you get some results for a bit and then actually maybe. start to play better hockey as some of your young players get to that 100, 150 games played in the league mark. I mean, they wouldn't be the first team to follow that path. And that's at least worth, you know, especially if you're getting plus money on them to make the playoffs or significant plus money on them to make the playoffs. I don't hate that. Olivier Moore, one of my favorite QMJHL prospects.

Yeah, the Blues are currently at an 862 team save percentage after their weekend games, especially that game against the Flyers was absolutely bonkers to start the weekend. All right, I want to move on to the Pacific Division? Let's do it. So you've got the Golden Knights on top, and I think you're going to disagree with this, right? Just because of everything we've said about the Oilers in terms of not necessarily buying what we're seeing from them in October and November as being reflective of what they're going to look like in the back half of the season, I think they're certainly going through this very challenging stretch right now, integrating a lot of different guys in the lineup, but also playing a ton of. of games in the road come December they're going to start kind of back waiting some of those home games and I think hymen coming back is so massive as well right because on the one hand

he's a player who in certain hockey circles has been like overly glorified in some ways and then on the other hand I feel like the pushback has gone too far because you watch even in his debut and it's going to take him some time to to get back into the flow of things but immediately from the jump in that third period where they were kind of struggling to create offense. They just go back to old reliable. They put him together with Drysidal and McDavid. They create a nice goal off the rush where he makes this kind of connected play on the wall. He's causing havoc around the net.

And so I just feel like there's certainly, I mean, they're 5-15 profile right now where I think the 31st, only the predators have been worse than them in terms of goal differential. That's obviously going to improve. There are certainly some concerns about the goaltending and whether that's kind of seeped into their playing style because they're, to my eye, playing a much slower pace. And I think part of that is like a defense mechanism

to try to just prevent how much they're exposing on the back end. And they're going to need to open that up a little bit to get the most out of their forwards. But I don't know, have you change your stance at all in terms of potential concern about what we've been seeing from the Oilers and especially as it relates to the top of the Pacific with the Golden Knights and kind of who's going to wind up getting that first seat, getting the home ice and staying away from whatever.

match up in round one. Yeah, although the way that the West has sort of broken down here, I mean, I guess you'd prefer to avoid the ducks or the kings, but I mean, those are going to be at least average playoff teams. I mean, those are, you know, they're not going to be robust playoff teams unless they make an addition we don't see coming, which very, very possible, especially given the assets that both teams have organizationally. You know, I guess the Pacific's a little bit topsy-turvy right now, right?

because neither Edmonton or Vegas is in the top three. Although in Vegas's case, it's partly a games played thing, and they're dealing with it injury-wise, right? I mean, no William Carlson, no Mark Stone. There's no Aden Hill. I mean, there's a lot that's piling up. I think with Edmonton, my tune hasn't changed and that I'm still pretty confident that they're one of the class teams in the West.

I think you'd have to look at what we've seen through the first five weeks of the season and say, at least right now, we shouldn't be putting them. in the same tier as Colorado, but also we know what this Oilers team is likely to start playing like at some point down the stretch. I'm just concerned about their goaltending in terms of taking them really seriously, given what we're seeing out of Colorado, and frankly, what we're seeing out of Vegas in their top of the lineup minutes, you know, even as they're sort of shorthanded as a result of injury, like I think a Vegas team with Mitch Marner is just a very different proposition to be starting

Stuart Skinner against. I think likewise, this Avs team, you know, I don't think the Oilers can go into that series with their current goaltending tandem. I don't. And I don't know where the upgrade comes from, but that's the part of it that the more I watch, even as I think that Stort Skinner is like basically a totally fine 1B starter who can play a high volume of games for you and be pretty durable. And by the end of the season, it'll come out in the wash and you'll be like, He was within shouting distance of league average. We know that this team's Stanley Cup hopes, realistic Stanley Cup hopes,

needs to sort of have a Milo put on it in the event that they can't find an answer and goal. Yeah, more concerning for me moving forward than the occasional backbreaking goal against or whatever is if it does actually seep into the way they play offensively and if they're trying to like very carefully manage those minutes or the risks they are willing to take because obviously,

when they kind of ramp up that highest gear with the top line and how much they can create, that's when they're absolute best. But if they're playing differently or trying to kind of spread the wealth to mitigate the risk, then I think that we're going to have to revisit it. The Golden Knights, though, I will say, like, on the one hand,

they're managing stuff here in terms of kind of just trying to make it work and patch it together for the time being. You look at their splits since Mark Stone got hurt and left the lineup, though, and it's certainly significantly, different to how they started off the year where it looked like really everything was coming together in particular is impact down low on that power play right where that looked like a differentiating factor for them similar to what we said about Dallas where it's like all right if

they're going to create 12 13 goals an hour in the power play that's just going to totally change the dynamic in a playoff series whereas it's come back down earth without that element of him either kind of jamming puck's down low or sending it cross-ice for the dorifie of one-timer and so we'll see when he comes back and then what it looks like after that do you have appetite for any of these specific division teams after that. Obviously, the Ducks still have an 11, 6 and 1 record, three straight losses on the road. Now, they are coming back home for a six-game homestand starting on Monday. So I think it'll, that'll write the ship for them, certainly. And, you know, the market has not been scared off because they've still got a 63% implied playoff probability.

Part of it is the competition in the West, but that's still firmly in the top eight in terms of who's going to make the playoffs. And so that is pretty bullish, I think, moving forward. And still, like, you watch them. I know, like, the game against Minnesota, they get shut out. They weren't really creating that much. And you still have these occasional flashes, either from Cutter, Go Chair, or Leo Carlson, where you can see how they could just be a game breaker that even when they're not playing well as a team, that can be the difference between them winning and losing.

And that's something they certainly did not have in the past. Yeah. I also think part of the reason that the Ducks get to this point of having this sort of respect is that, you know, they're at a point in the season now where the math, is in their favor. I mean, they don't have to, you know, it's not like they can go 500 the rest of the way and be okay. I mean, that would only, you know, result in them having like a low 90s point total, but it would still result in them having a low 90s point total, which is at least the fringes of the playoff race. You usually need to be more like 93 to get to secure yourself a wildcard spot historically. And obviously you want to get up to about 97 to make it a no doubter. But, you know, that you start 11, 6 and 1 and all, of a sudden, you know, to catch you, even if it looks like a team is, oh, only four points back, only five points back in the standings. It's like you can probably stay ahead of that team with something like a low 90s point, like a 565 point percentage the rest of the way, where that other

team needs to go almost like 600, needs to play at almost 100 point base, though, for the balance to reel you in. The duct start, I think, has given them that sort of cushion. And then, you know, that's part of this too where just to come back to Edmonton goaltending because I was like I don't know if that's going to be good enough to face the I don't know if that's going to be if you go into the first round and it's ducks oilers and it's like we know that the oilers will be heavily favored and should be heavily favored in that series I don't want that ducks power play one going to work against Stuart Skinner like that scares me witless if I'm the oilers the kings who are third still in this division I think you and I had certainly expressed interest or sort of concern about whether the bottom could fall out with the offseason they had and the team speed that we referenced with the Jets earlier 10, 5 and 4 record plus two goal differential. And, you know, the baseline for them is still high, not in terms of competing for a cup meaningfully, but in terms of getting one of these top three seeds in the Pacific because

of that defensive environment, which once again, after a slow start has worked its way up into the top five, definitely top ten, to the point where you watch that game on Saturday, and I really hope our listeners did not tune into it because there was other good hockey going on, where they go into Ottawa, and it's towards the end of a long road trip out east, but man, I think the shot count was like 11-11 late into the third.

In that game, they hold on for a one-nothing shout-out, and it was hilarious because part of why you had the Ottawa senator's solo in your watchability rankings was almost making that exact point of how they're kings and so you had these two teams, just perfectly satisfied to play Irish football. Just running into each other repeatedly, just going three and out and punting essentially every time as we record on the Sunday.

And so, yeah, I think our thoughts are pretty well documented on the Kings, but I do think, like, the concern we had in terms of them completely bothering out because of some of those subtractions, obviously isn't the case just because, especially in the regular season on any given night, the defensive environment is going to get them so many points. Yeah, their floor is too high. And that's what we're seeing.

You know, I don't know if they're going to have the sort of upside case that I was hoping they might two, three years ago. I do think that they've limited that, but they have certainly the sort of floor where I don't think we should worry at all about them being a playoff caliber team over the balance. All right. Let's take our break here. When we come back, we're going to jump to the east, cover the Metro and the Atlantic. You're listening to the hockeypedia ocast streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network. All right, we were back here in the Hockey-Ocast, joined by Tom Strance, as always, for our Sunday special, Tom. We're done with the West now.

Let's get to the east. And in particular, I think, the most fun division clearly, both in terms of strength so far, but also in terms of intrigue for a conversation like this, because you go by goal differential. And this division currently boasts the second, fourth, eighth, tenth, 11th, 14th, and 19th best team. So all eight teams in this division are currently in the top 20. I do think for the purposes of looking ahead to the playoffs and in terms of these team standings, the hurricanes have clearly distanced themselves as the number one team here. Especially if Jack Hughes is missing two months. Yeah, but even then.

I mean, you talk about the baseline for this team and I think their baseline, or I guess their ceiling for the playoffs has significantly improved in addition of Eilers and the continued growth and development and what we're seeing from guys like Jackson Blake and Logan Stancoven but with all the injuries in the blue line they've been navigating still for them to be 12, 5 and 1 I think is remarkably impressive because there's certain other teams around the league where you look at it. It's like oh they have a couple guys out of the lineup and that's an excuse for why they've been struggling and for them they just kind of keep humming along with with the infrastructure and just plugging in playing guys from

the HL. So I think it's remarkably impressive and I think that they're standing as the second best team in the league behind the Colorado Avalanche, especially as you project the path through the east for them, um, is very deserving because they're not going to have to go through a Vegas, Dallas, Edmonton combination of teams just to get to the Stanley Cup

final. There's certainly going to be some teams with difficult tests for them and they're going to have to answer questions for us in the playoffs. But man, right now with the way things are shaping up for them, even pre them making some sort of a splash move with the deadline to improve their roster, it's looking pretty nice right now for Carolina. We're very close, I think, to seeing this version of Carolina Hurricane stress hockey where the skill that they have makes it so that it doesn't feel like they're inevitably going to get goal lead in a playoff series too. But I watched them play, obviously, that Canucks game closely on Friday, where their territorial edge was like three and a half to one, four to one over Vancouver. And it was, you know, a true gong show for the Canucks to defensively. They weren't just generating incredible volume, but there was there was real quality there, too. I still think they're shy one Martin Nukes slash Jordan Stahl sized human with skill, right? I still think they're shy that one piece because up front anyway, I mean, what Jackson Blake's able to do, dancing with the puck in zone, the way that his teammates are able to work off of that and find quality.

quiet ice. I mean, that's a weapon. Eelers, you know, I'd like to see them find ways to reload or, yeah, reload Eilers more in the neutral zone because he's so difficult to stay with for the opposition whenever he's operating as a puck carrier. I almost feel like he's pretty far back on a lot of their breakouts. And I wonder if that's partly them trying to get it, but it's just not quite clicking yet in terms of getting him the puck with speed in the neutral zone. But anyway, they have the skill now, I think, where they're a different type of credible threat to win to win big, like to be a championship level team. I think they're right there knocking on the door on it. And then, you know, somewhat they're getting from these young defenders is

wildly impressive. Nikitian sort of front of that group in my mind anyway. So There we are. I still think one human being with size and the skill to do damage, right? It's almost like regrettable that the Rantanin thing didn't work out for them. I think they were smart to not use it as a rental last season and to instead kick the can down the road with the Stankhoven trade plus getting those two first. I think that was advisable given the state of their team last year. I don't know that Rantanin puts them over the top in any meaningful sense, as impressive as it was, that they managed to get to the conference final. but now I agree with you the window is different the opportunity is different their caliber of play is you know just as controlling and overwhelming as it as it ever has been territorially but with this additional dose of skill that hasn't necessarily been there in the past I just want to see one more power forward E type top nine guy added into the mix I think for the next whatever two months yeah how the devils handle this

Jack Hughes absence and whether that increases their risk profile or I guess expedites the process for them to improve their team up front in particular the way we were hoping they would this past off season will be fascinating right because while we say that the hurricanes are clearly number one here I think they're similar to what we said in the central it goes devils and then it goes everyone else and they've got this 13 and four in one record despite all the injuries they've been managing despite the fact that Nico Hissier, the past 10 games, has not really looked like the same two-way difference maker of 5-on-5 the way he had last year and the way he did to start this season. And I don't know if he's nursing something or just is tired at this point

from the workload. And yet, I feel like there's such an obvious fit here. And I've talked about how Ryan O'Reilly would be the perfect ad for them. And whether that happens will be immensely fascinating. I can't wait to see how that transpires. I imagine they're going to look in other places as well, but not only the fit in terms of playing style and what he does best still at this point of his career, where he's like 57% in face-offs, so even when Hughes comes back would provide you with some nice insulation there, so you're not just relying on his year to win all the draws. For a team that's so good on special teams, the way they are, in particular the power play, he never takes any penalties. I think he still hasn't taken a single one this

season, five-on-five impacts on this 30-second ranked Predators team are still very impressive. I don't really know why. I guess he holds himself to a higher standard, why he's been so vocally and publicly critical of his own performance this season amidst what's going on with the Predators, but I'm still seeing a high enough level from O'Reilly there. And that's before you get into the fact that his contract fits perfectly where a subplot to this entire season for them has been taking on future money and managing their books

carefully to increase their flexibility or ability to really load up come 2027. And that's exactly when O'Reilly's contract expires after next season as well. And so guys like Codry and other centers that shake loose on bad teams are going to get mixed into here as potential fits. But I keep coming back to O'Reilly as being the most obvious one for any number of reasons. Yeah. No, I think that's a good shout and something I'd love to see. I still think he's got game. Personally, I agree with you. And I mean, he's like a 55 percent. chance and expected goal guy on that on that predator's team like he still just wins so many battles yeah cooks down low and if you're able to play him down lineup with a guy like gritschik

I mean I think you'd be onto something meaningful potentially in terms of fattening up that roster and giving some of the devils an infusion of some of that like old school bite that maybe they've lacked in the past so funny it was my birthday last weekend and gritsick scores that goal against the penguins and I was about to tune into the game it happened early on I just get this text from you being like for your birthday you got a gritsich goal and I was like not Nice. And it's such a shame in the timing, right? Because we finally got to see that game last Thursday in Chicago. They put Gritsich together finally with Jack Hughes. They're making sweet music together at 5-1-5. And then Hughes obviously gets hurt, and now we don't get to see that. But I do think Gritsuk's sort of leveling up in terms of usage. As he gets more comfortable in this league, you can see the offensive upside is so clear not to mention how many battles he wins. And then Shimo Nemitz as well, who the past couple games, because of all the injuries with Dougie Hamilton now as well. That Patrick performance was incredible. He's playing so much. scoring and setting up huge goals down the stretch for them. And so there's a lot of runaway

there for improvement. Then you get to the Rangers at third, despite there are much talked about struggles at home this season that have still persisted. Which are really at this point, like, I don't think the Rangers' inability to score is what's going to sink this team, right? I mean, like, I think it's purely a random distribution in a wild way. Well, at 5 on 5 this year, there's second and chance is fifth and expected goals and fifth in actual goals, which is quite a distinction from the way we talked about this team previously. 100%. And so if some of those goals start going in at home, all of a sudden, I think it's going to get very interesting.

Obviously, Troche comes back, Paneraan shaves his head and goes off yet again. I feel like Lafranier, who obviously catches a lot of flack, has looked much more aggressive and decisive recently. And so, yeah, they're an interesting spot. And then you get to the Capitals, where 8, 8, and 2 with shocking, splits where they are a top team at 5-1-5, their fourth in shots, third in chances, second and expect the goals, and yet they're 30th on the power play, 27th on the PK, and a lot of that regression that we were talking about last year has kind of hit very unfortunately, yet you watch them play, and even in their past couple losses against the Panthers and then

a banged-up Devils team, I feel like the baseline is still high enough here, both because of the depth. And that took a hit, obviously, not having PLD, but still the guy. they have and then how they're controlling play and how much they're generating and the movement they get from the defensemen and so obviously the goal tending as well that they get every night so I don't know I feel like the capitals it's gone a bit too far I get that they've been on this losing streak they have a 500 record there's a lot of reasons to be frustrated and yet it almost feels like I've I've appreciated what I've seen from them when I play that when they play this year much more than last year when obviously they had the results to show for it yeah I mean I mean

I agree with you. I think the, yeah. The Islanders, the real reason we're doing the show and the team we want to talk about. One thing, though, about the caps really quick. The conversation in the Vancouver market, obviously, has been focused a lot on rebuilding. And then the capitals come up as sort of this counterpoint to it very frequently. And I just do want to note, as impressed as I am with their program, the Carbury hire, the big swings they took on Dubois and Tompsey.

and Chikrin that all worked to like the 99th percentile extent. They're incredible drafting and pros getting. Even beyond that being difficult to replicate, I still also think it's important for us to remember that the jury is still out on how successful their ability to sort of

restock from the middle of the standings ultimately will be, right? I do think it's worth noting, you know, they made the playoffs consecutive years, but they did it once with a what was it minus 32 goal differential. And then they did it this past season with, you know, an incredible PDO run. And so this year they're good, but they're haven't punched their ticket. They're not looking like an absolute plow horse team in the

metro just yet. And so I'm really curious to sort of see how this goes. But, you know, more than anything, I do think as much as we like the work and I like it very, very much, the model, like the way that they've been able to go about this is still fraught, right? It's still not like they have the wind at their back relative to, you know, what we're seeing out of a team like Anaheim with just the incredible amount of talent that they've been able to amass as a result of having high draft picks and selling every deadline and being able to look ahead with a greater degree of discipline than a team like the Capp says. The Islanders. 10, 6 and 2 record, despite starting out losing their first three games

offensively, you talk about the fundamental transformation with a lot of the moves they made in in particular Matthew Schaefer coming in and immediately being a difference maker. They're seventh in goals, fifth and expected goals, fourth and inner slot shots, eighth in offensive zone time. This is not the Islanders team of the past couple years. And Matthew Schaefer is not only a 70% implied probability of winning the Calder at this point. He's up to seventh in Norris odds. And I feel like that's still low. And due to uptick, if he keeps this up, because the past couple games on the road where they go in a Vegas, they win that one. He plays 26 minutes. Then the following game in Utah, 25, 49.

the goals he's scoring where he leads all defensemen with seven, 15 points in 18 games, playing 22 and a half minutes. And now we've also seen them start to really load up his plate with matchup minutes, where I think they were easing him in, understandably so early on for a teenage defenseman making his first voyage into the NHL. Now all of a sudden he's getting the heavy lifting against the other team's top players all throughout this road trip. Most recent game, he won his minutes pretty decisively playing against that loaded up

Cooley-Kellar line. And I just think it's so immensely. I mean, we've talked a lot about Schaefer and there's nothing necessarily new to add in that regard. But with each one of these reps, he keeps adding in terms of this 26 minute a night game where he scores and just looks phenomenal flying up and down the ice, winning his 5-on-5 minutes, playing against other teams' best players. I mean, it's just so incredibly impressive. And the maturity that he's showing as a two-way, like, he's conscientious of the defensive side of the puck. I mean, he's putting up these gaudy scoring numbers, but there's no element or no sense that he's playing

the game in a way that keeps both teams in it, right? This is not just a puck moving defenseman. This is a guy who's, you know, playing a really well-rounded game. I mean, he's picking his teeth with the competition and then post-game he's, you know, incredibly charming and joking around with people and, you know, making fun of Henrik Lundquist for asking him the first question because he's a ranger or asking Calcutterbuck. Like, he seems so inflappable. He seems to be having so much fun with every aspect of,

this season, this job. I think that has to be infectious, too. Like, he, he just carries himself like he's not just a very special player, but a very special person. And, man, I am over the moon impressed with him. I do think we're another two really good weeks away from him really starting to gather Norris bus. Well, I don't want to take away from the additions in the offseason of Druan, who's been

very valuable, Emil Heimann, and certainly in the Dobs and Trade, and then Barzal being healthy after he missed so much time last year. And that's a huge part of it. But he is just, I mean, Schaefer has come in and just like fundamentally transformed this team. Like I just said they're top 10 in every offensive metric and that's just not a way we thought about the Islanders previously. And a lot of that is attributed directly to him. You get the Blue Jack at six, flyer, seventh, eighth penguins in this division. And there's no shame in that because the market currently has the Rangers atop this sort of tier.

Third most likely to make the playoffs out of the Metro, 56% implied odds. The penguins at 8th are around 30%. It's about as condensed. and in terms of the market just being like, yeah, all of these teams can make it. This is a very viable path for all these teams for a variety of reasons. And so it's really fun, but also, like, I feel like we're going to run out of time here and talking about Atlantic, and I think deservedly so because the Metro just deserves so much more of our attention.

I want somebody to ask Dan Mews if he spent a lot of time studying Gerard Glantz at Golden Nights, because the way that it's just pucks into space, everyone do it with extraordinary discipline, and let's bring a ton of support off of every touch. The way that they play just feels eerily reminiscent, as does the fact that they're overachieving with a lineup that no one saw being able to hold their own, especially given the quality of the teams in this division. So, I mean, yeah, I'm, I actually love watching the Penguins.

I think they play really fun hockey. Certainly, and there's still top 10 across the board in pretty much every offensive metro. The Atlantic. Toronto Maple Leaf Panic Watch. Well, it's as much of a guessing game as the Metro, but for different reasons. Yes.

And you still got the lighting up top, despite they've got the 9-6-2 record heading into today before the game against the Canucks. Despite them giving up six goals against the Canucks on Sunday? Now, they had that stretch where they really right of the ship, played like six or seven really good games. And then the injury bug hit, right? With headman out, with McDonough,

Haigle missed a couple of games, Sorelli being out. And so they're forcing this spot where they were already getting very valuable contributions out of guys we didn't expect that came up from the H. And now they've had to double and triple down on that. So it's obviously unfair to evaluate them right now. And that's true for a lot of these teams. Like the Panthers are still second despite a nine, eight, and a one record. And

the defensive environment is certainly in place. They're going to struggle to score, as you've seen, like the extent to which they're relying on a 37-year-old Brad Marchand to create everything for them offensively right now is a bit concerning. And then you got the Canadians who I think, I haven't checked, but were, as recently as yesterday, still technically a topped his division into standings. I've had a couple poor games now with losses, have a 10, 6 and 2 record. And then you get into the Senators, Leaves, Red Wings, and then Bruins and Sabres. And so what do we do with this division? What do you have got any thoughts on any of those teams or do you want to quickly rattle through all them? Yeah, I mean, it's, I find this one very tricky too,

right? The Boston Bruins, I think, will fade. The Buffalo Sabres, I think, will finish ahead of the Boston Bruins at the end of the season despite it feeling like they're the one team that's not been invited to the parody party in the Eastern Conference. They really needed that Saturday comeback against the Red Wings. There was a point where they were down, I think, 3-1 and had like nine shots

on goal halfway through the game. And it was like another listless performance. They're going to lose another game in this losing streak. And then Tage Thompson finally shows signs of life. They get a key goal in front from our guy Josh Done. And they desperately needed that one, despite the fact they still have a six, eight, and four

record. Yeah, I mean, I think there's understandable panic for a lot of these teams. I mean, you look at the Leafs and they're losing streak and don't have Tanev, Stolars, Matthews, certainly, but they're just bleeding so much defensively. And I think of almost, understandably so, put themselves in a different conversation than some of these other teams in this division, despite the fact that that wasn't obviously our expectation heading into the year. Yeah. No, they, I mean, the Maple Leafs are, I'm worried about the Maple Leafs flat out. Like, there's no question that I'm worried about the Maple Leafs. They're flat out. One of the three worst defensive teams I've seen this season. Yeah. I, I, and they also don't have a ton of offensive

juice. Yeah. I mean, they don't have yeah. I guess the thing I'd say is, you can't possibly get more from Nealander and Tavares than this team has got. And it hasn't moved the needle for them. And that to me is deeply concerning because I'd be pretty surprised if at the end of the year, you know, John Tavares is like second or third in the NHL and five on five points scored. I mean, that's, it feels like they've even been running hot. and it hasn't mattered, given some of the structural issues with sort of how that roster is constructed. You know, I think I'm buying Montreal. I think it's a little odd that Montreal is this far back in the betting odds to win the division.

The injuries to New Hook and now Doc complicates things a little bit because they were already thin down the middle. And so that's a bit concerning. But yeah, I mean, just what we've seen from the top of the roster. Yeah. This recent stretch notwithstanding is-standing. I know they haven't won a lot in regulation. Yeah. I just, I'm really impressed when I watch them play every time out. And, and I think again, like, like we've talked about with a lot of other teams, I think they have some of that backweighted upside where, you know, we expect them to be a different team as some of those guys hit 200, 250 NHL games play. So, you know, I don't really understand Montreal's odds here. And then Ottawa, we can basically just transplant the conversation we had about L.A. right over to Ottawa. You know what?

It's impressive that Ottawa has done what they've done while getting three games total from Brady Kachuk at this point in the season. And the PK being as bad as it was early and not getting the goal tending. Yeah, I agree. They're a clear playoff team for me. Maybe not the sexiest one,

but they're, you know, again, I think Kings East is the best way to think about them. So you think we're going to get four Atlantic Division playoff teams? I mean, I think so. Like, I think, I think, I mean, look at the East. It's such a knife fight. I think it's a fool's errand to try and predict it either way.

But I think there's five teams. I think there's five teams and then six if the Toronto Maple Leafs can figure it out that I won't be surprised to see make the playoffs from the Atlantic. And I think basically there, I won't be surprised to see any team in the Metro make it. So, you know, it's going to come down to health. It's going to come down to which

team has the weird 11-0-2 run, you know, in the month of February, like going into the Olympic break. I mean, it's going to matter too. we saw last year. There's going to be, you know, Matthew Schaefer gets picked to the Olympic team. Some other team Canada lefty sustains an injury all of a sudden he's playing and it's like McCar Schaefer and then he comes back and it's just like, oh, this guy's the best defenseman

in the league and the Islanders get hot. You know, there's all these like, there's so much that's going to change between now and then. But I, realistically, aside from the Sabres and the Bruins, there's not an Eastern Conference team that can make the playoffs that I'd be shocked by at this point. I think something we do on this show is towards the end, we always kind of like, as we're talking naturally and organically, we're like, all right, maybe we should just expand on this and make a full show out of it. I feel like we don't have to do it next week necessarily. But as we ramp up towards the Olympic break, I think a fun conversation for us to have would be. To try and forecast, who's the Jake Sanderson of. Well, that too, but also from a team perspective, which teams we think are going to benefit most from having the Olympic break this season? Because last year certainly, you know, while we're talking about the HABs, they really like, They took that break and then refined a few things, but also the young players just started playing so much better. And I don't know if it's they got a second win or what happened there. But then there's older teams as well who I think are going to benefit from some of their guys just getting some rest and not how to play two weeks of games. Ovechkin was a huge one last year.

And then what you also get is the snub runs where the team will be announced whenever it is in December. And then you're going to get the four week run of just one guy playing extraordinary. narrowly angrily and that's going to matter too for their team especially with how compressed this playoff race is in both conferences so i took it personally run i love that that's one of my favorite annual olympic year subplots by the way all right that's going to be really fun of track okay we'll circle back to that and we'll do that in a future edition of the sunday special what do you want to promote on the way out canucks talk on the wherever you get your podcasts obviously that's a full breakdown of david camp's game we're we're going to do a full breakdown of david camp's

game and one of the weirdest weekends. I mean, the Canucks end up with three points from a couple of meetings against the Hurricanes and Lightning in which, you know, the overall shot attempt count was like five to one against them. Truly incredible counterpunching from the Canucks. So lots to break down. Is it sustainable, Dimitri? No.

But anyway, we'll break it down. Hey, don't get away. Spoilers. You need to find out. Monday to Friday on Sportsnet 6.50 a.m. in Vancouver. and wherever you get your podcasts. And then, of course,

I'll be breaking it all down to at the Athletic. All right, buddy. Keep up the great work already looking forward to next Sunday's chat. If you enjoyed today's show, give us a five-star reviewer and listen. Also, subscribe to the PDOCast Patreon for access to extra shows. We had Kevin Woodley on this past week,

Pete Blackburn as well, lots of fun stuff coming. Join the PDOCast Discord. And that is all. For today, we'll be back soon with plenty more. Thank you for listening to the Hockey Ocadcast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network.