The Hockey PDOcast - Deep Diving the Detroit Red Wings

Episode Date: December 12, 2025

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Max Bultman to help deep dive the Detroit Red Wings by looking at the first 32 games they've played this season, the key areas of improvement that differentiate them from the version they were the past two years when they fell short, and the way the organization has positioned itself to take an even bigger leap moving forward. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Regressing to the mean since 2015, it's the Hockey P.D.O.Cast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name is Demetri Philipovich, and joining me as my good buddy, Max, Bultman, Max. What's going on, man? Hey, Dimitri, it's good to see you again. It is. It's been a while. And I'm excited, to have you on do a little Detroit Red Wings deep dive. They're through 32 games now, which seems kind of crazy to say the start of the season is flown by. That's nearly 40% of their regular season schedule. And so we've got a pretty good sample here to work with. They are out west right now completing a six-game road trip. It's gone three one and one so far. The only regulation defeat coming Thursday night against Edmonton. And I want to break all of that down. But just

taking a bigger picture view of where they're at right now and kind of trying to sort through this mess, not only in Atlantic, but I'd say the East as a whole where every team right now in that conference is between 30 and 40 points, essentially, and that includes a couple teams that are at the bottom, a couple teams up top, but for the most part, pretty much everyone is within four or five points of each other, which means that making any sort of definitive statements one way or another is a bit of a risky proposition because we're one good or bad week away for any of these teams from either looking like they're going to miss the playoffs yet again or being firmly locked in a playoff spot.

So all of this stuff is very up in the air right now. But just through these first 32 games, kind of what's the feel for you with this Red Wings team, in particular comparing it, I think, to the past couple versions we've seen where around this time of year, they were hanging around a playoff spot, looking like they were building a bit of positive momentum,

but ultimately falling short. Well, there's definitely been a roller coaster factor to it. And I think most of that, honestly, is driven by exactly what you just like. out the fact that you go on a two or three game losing streak and you can drop from the two seed in the Atlantic to three spots back of the second wild card in five days time you know so there's been those swings there's been hey they're first in the Atlantic and a week later uh there are three points back of you know the wild card so uh there's been a lot

of that and i think that's not that's not unfamiliar to what those recent years have been like it usually those swings have come over the span of more like a month where okay they're in a playoff spot okay they lost six out of eight and now they're uh you know fighting for their lives and in every case that i've covered have missed but i don't think they're they're the same team that they've been in those years either and so that's the interesting part is that i there's so much rhyme in the arc in the uh the direction i guess of the season but but they're also a more direct team i think they're they're a team that's had some other star players really come on more at cider is in his prime now right like i think i don't know if it was the last

we talked, but I remember doing a show with you in his rookie year, and we were talking about, you know, what to expect from this guy and what's real. And what's real now is he's one of the 10 best defensemen of the NHL, and it might be better than that. And so that's a really encouraging thing for them that some of those players, they need to be great, have been. Yeah, the highs and lows with a lot of the teams around the league have been there. But I feel like with this Red Wings team in particular and sometimes within individual games, right? I think of that home game earlier in the year when they had that dramatic comeback against the blues, even on this road trip with the Flames game where it looks like they've got it all signs sealed and delivered

and then all of a sudden they're kind of white knuckling it at the end there across the finish line they're on a 95 point pace right now the market has them about 40% implied probability to make the playoffs i i would put it a little bit higher than that i think that just acknowledges the variance right now with how close all of those teams are as i mentioned they're finishing up this six game road trip on on saturday in chicago and you know this most recent game against the Oilers in preparation for today's show. I got up nice and early this morning, put it back on and went through the tape a little bit.

And I certainly think there's no shame in losing a competitive game on the second leg of a back-to-back against a arrested team at home in the Oilers. I did think, though, it was interesting in that one because you could see where they've made strides and then also where I think there's still a bit of

a gap to be bridged for them when you compare it to the first meeting between these two teams, right? Because the first one, I think it was early in October. They're playing at home. The Oilers were kind of banged up. They didn't have Hyman, so they had to load up that top line with McDavid and Dry Seidel. And much like Todd McClellan's done all year, he was able to essentially just entirely use that Larkin line full time against the only real threat on the Oilers. They wound up winning that matchup. MFIDD had his breakup performance in that one, and they were

able to win that game. And this one on the road, it was a bit tougher sledding because the Oilers are healthier. They split up McDavid and Drysidal. You get this sort of primary matchup of Lark Inverse dry-sidal and they play each other to a draw. And then McDavid's line is able to feast against the cop line and the bottom six. And so in terms of rounding out this team and kind of taking those next steps, we've seen some individual contributions on the peripheries that I want to talk about with you today. But it feels like that's going to be the next step for this team in terms of like going from a sort of like burgeoning young team to one that's like firmly in the playoff picture. I fully agree. That was the exact analysis I had of that.

game too, right? I think that that game in October was the best game of Dylan Larkin's career. I think he is a uniquely suited player to match up with Connor McDavid for a couple reasons. One, he's one of the 10 guys in the league who can actually go stride for stride with him reliably, right? And two, I think he has a mentality where he is willing to basically eat it and do whatever it takes to. He might be, he's willing to have a quiet offensive night if it means holding Connor McDavid to one as well. Now, it just so happened that on that night, I think he tied his career high for points. But it all happens in flow, right?

And it happens because I asked him about it after that game of like, what's your mentality in this matchup? And he said basically just being okay with you might not get anything. And you have to dedicate it to taking him out. You don't get that matchup last night. I think they, I think he had five, less than five and a half minutes at five on five with McDavid.

Both of the even strength goals the Oilers got were the McDavid and Hyman line out there against two thirds of their kind of kid line with Nate Daniels and Marco Casper, Elmer Soderblom. So your analysis there is spot on, and it does speak to where their team is at, where I think in the future, Nate Danielson might be the matchup center for this team in three years, but right now he's 20 games into his NHL career,

maybe actually a little bit less than that. I'd have to go back and look where exactly his game counts at now. So when they're able to pick their matchups and get that cop to brinket cane line, which I think has been excellent lately out there how they want it, and then they can have their top line with Larkin and Raymond, you know, take away and other team's best players, it's a really good spot for them to be. And they have some good secondary scorers, not so much secondary, I should say, second line scorers that can produce offense in that scenario.

But when that line is getting taken out by another team and they're able to kind of have their checkers against the Larkin line, it puts them in a tougher spot because their bottom six doesn't necessarily produce at the level you need. it to. That's a long-winded way of basically just repeating what you said, but I thought you analyzed it perfectly. To your point, Danielson, I believe, is at 17 games now, and I've got some notes on him later. But let's start with this, because I think in terms of delineating the differences or the reasons for optimism between this year's version of the Red Wings and the ones that I referenced from the past two years, where they finished with 91 and 86 points, and then ultimately

extended this playoff drought to nine years. The first one for me is the 5-1-5 offensive creation and how this team looks at even strength. And at the start of the year, I did this show kind of looking at some of our top storylines or things that we were curious to see how it plays out with Jack Hahn. And we were talking about Todd McClellan in his first full year with the Red Wings after being hired during the Christmas break last year. And, you know, when you get hired at that point, you kind of come in and there's a few things you can tinker with, but for the most part with how little practice time teams get

these days, you're kind of just trying to patch together on the fly. You finally get a full off season, a full training camp to kind of integrate. your systems and really get the team playing the way you want. And I think he was correct and he spoke about this in diagnosing the biggest issue with this team. We know that the power play was so efficient and so lethal as a top 10 or even top five group the past couple of years. But they just weren't really creating anything at 5-1-5.

I think a couple of years ago they scored a bunch of goals, but it was mostly shooting percent driven. A lot of the shot and chance metrics and expected goals did not look favorably upon them. And last year they finished 28th in shots, 28th and chances, 24th in expected goals. and 30th in goals scored at 515. Now this year, they're up to 5th, 8th, 5th, and 20th in those categories. The goals are still lagging a bit behind because of the shooting percentage. But all of the underlying metrics under the hood of how they're creating looks

and the process itself offensively looks night and day compared to last year. And I think that bears out when you watch these games. And so I'm curious for kind of following this development, this season and everything Todd McCullen's put in a place and the emphasis they've placed on this, kind of how that process has gone along and if you feel like they're happy with the way this is unfolded or do you think there's another layer

I think to this in growing out the offensive side of things. There's absolutely another layer. I think the biggest difference is they're being more assertive, more directed and also just funneling more pucks to the net. I think nobody's Carolina, right?

But that's kind of the approach that Carolina has used in becoming kind of the analytic kings of the NHL, right, is everything goes to the net and you hope that in doing so, you're just creating opportunities for chaos. You're creating opportunities for rebounds, for tips, and then you're keeping the pressure on your opponent. Where the Red Wings can take the next step in that is the heavy offense that comes on those

rebounds and tips, getting it more consistently. Because I think if you look at their best players and their best scorers, Patrick Kane's not tipping a lot of pucks, Demetri. Alex DeBringko will do it once in a while. Dylan Larkin will do a redirect for you once in a while. I'm at Finney. You'll clean up a rebound. These are a lot of, like, rush players, a lot of, like, power play in zone seam pass kind of players.

And I think where they can get to the next level is if the bottom six, which includes guys like James Van Riemstike, Andrew Kopp, J.T. Comfer, Elmer Soderblom, I think, is a guy who has more to give in that area and has had a nice, probably week, week and a half here recently. If those players can start to create more of the ugly offense that their systems and their analytics suggest are out there to be had, that's where this team will take that step. and will bridge the gap in their expected goals and their actual goals. Because right now, I think for as good as the underlying numbers have been, they're still pretty dependent on power plays, on rush chances, on some of the pretty offense. It's the same story in that way as the last couple years.

They've shown it in flashes, but the hard offense is where they will, if they can find it, take the step. Yeah, I think I'm a bit more optimistic it sounds like than you in terms of how purposeful I think they've been in creating this. And it's funny, you mentioned JBR there and some of the rush stuff. because in watching these games, I know he was out for the most recent one. But even him at his age, it seems like he's shaking loose for a breakaway every other game right now. And it feels like they've placed an added emphasis on creating some easier looks at even strength

and acknowledging that it's interesting because of Tom McClellan comes from L.A. most recently and they were sort of known for really buttoning things down defensively and playing very conservatively and not taking some of those risks and kind of hoping that the defensive metrics would win out and be a net positive. And this year feels like they've, and part of this might be, and we're going to talk more with John Gibson in bringing him in and being like, well, he's historically been so good at kind of standing in the line of fire. And if you expose him to some rush chances, he's going to be equipped to save those maybe better than goalies you've had in the past. And so we're going to open things up a little bit and live with whatever comes back the other way. And I feel like we have seen that so far to a positive effect. I mean, their quality chances of corner sport logic are up from 14 per game to 18 last year.

The rush chances, as you mentioned, are up from 5.9, which was bottom 10 in the league to seven and a half, which is top 10 in the league this year. And so the strides there, I think, are very impressive. And I do think bode well for them going to have to turn some of these shots into goals more. But that was one of the big sort of pushbacks. I think analytically the past couple years, whenever people would get excited about this team, I was like, well, I don't know, like the case looks pretty flimsy statistically from this holding up. And sure enough, as the years progressed um it wound up kind of progressing or coming down earth and biting them and it feels like this year of anything there's some positive regression to come which i think is is encouraging

considering they are hanging around this playoff picture right now i think so too and it's not it's not that i'm pessimistic about it's just that i i don't look at the shooting percentage they've had and say all unlucky right there's been something you watch the game last night like nate danielsen needs to finish that two-on-o with marco casper into an open net like that's that's bad luck but it's also you know it's it's a young player who's you know it's seven games into his career, like you said, I don't think that's a total fluke. But that's the, that's the fluky example. The non-fluk examples are when you have shots that are coming from the outside and you're getting these 31, 32 shot counts, but they're coming from high circle.

Like, these are stoppable shots for goalies. And that's where, like, I'm pointing to get more traffic at the net, more screens, more tips, more rebounds. And you'll see that shooting percentage go up because you're, you're actually maximizing those looks. So it's not that I'm pessimistic. It's progress. It's progress all day. But I just, you know, you, you know, You were asking about, like, is there more to come in there? And I think there is. I think there's absolutely more to mine from how they've gone about this. That's fair, especially for a team that's, you know,

we're going to get into some of the on-off splits for Sider and Larkin to kind of demonstrate their value to this team when you are top-heavy in that regard. And I don't think that's necessarily something that's going to hold this dramatically for the rest of the season or even in future years because some of these young players, you mentioned, it's fair to reason they're going to get better. They're going to have used this lineup with more talent along the way. And so they're going to be less top-haired. heavy in that regard. But for now, in terms of how they've been constructed, it makes sense that

you've got the drivers up top. And then some of the lower guys are going to be coming along a bit more slowly to maybe explain some of that inefficiency. The other step two to this for me is the penalty kill, right? And last year under Derek Lawn, they were dead last. Todd McLeod comes in. They had a bit of a dead cat bounce. But for the most part, finish the year still dead last in the league, over 11 goals against power. They're up to eight. We're down to, I guess, eight goals against per hour now, which is 22nd and represents real progress. And your colleague, Shana Goldman, wrote about this recently at the athletic. And I wanted to get into Dylan Larkin's role there as well in terms of some of the responsibility

he's taken on. He's up to a minute and a half per game short-handed this year, very strategically because of just how good he is in the face-off circle, starting a lot of these shifts, winning the draw, getting it out of the zone and sometimes changing and getting other PKK on. But I think that's a huge part of this. I mean, he's played 47 minutes short-handed so far, just six goals against. And so just reaching a certain baseline there where it felt like last year, it was almost inevitable that as soon as they take a penalty,

it was like, okay, here we go again. It's going to be a quick goal against. And I imagine that seeps into your offensive play as well because you know that you can't really afford to take penalties. And so maybe you take some fewer risk where he otherwise would have. And now the fact that it's at least a certain level of competent, I feel like maybe enables you to try some stuff or be a bit more aggressive than you would have been previously.

Yeah, I think there's truth in that for sure. And I think you're right to point out to Larkin element to that. Like, that's the best way to kill a penalty is when the opening face off, clear it down the ice, get off the ice, get fresh killers. And then you can try to deny entries rather than if you lose that face off, you're scrambling around from the jump. I don't know if there is a stat out there on this, but I bet it's heavily tilted, you know, off a faceoff loss for the defending team, what your, what your kill rate goes down to. So that's a huge part of it for Lark. And I also just think they did attack the penalty kill a lot. It was such a flaw the first half of last year.

And it was probably the place that they most tried to modify in season when McClellan and Trent Yanni came in. And it was an emphasis from very early in camp this year and how they wanted to attack this. And they went out and brought in some new players as well. I mean, Mason Appleton's out right now. But he's a guy who can contribute pretty significantly on the penalty kill. Andrew Cop and J.T. Com for kind of their old standbys. And Michael Rasmussen, when he's in the lineup, gets a good run. there as well. But it's just been a huge area of emphasis for them. I think they know how much it

killed them and how big a difference, even just being a league average penalty kill, even slightly below league average penalty kill last year would have made for them. And so it's been a massive priority. You mentioned some of those young players that they've been integrating. And I think that's another net positive here that bodes well because this organization in the past has historically been very slow or deliberate in terms of bringing along young guys, letting them marinate in the minors. And finally we're seeing this second wave first we got to see certainly the Raymond cider class and then now all of a sudden whether it's Emmett finney is a seventh round rookie making his team and the impact he's had Axel Sandine Pelica coming over

in his first North American season. Nate Danielson most recently Marco Casper last year I want to talk more about him because he maybe is running in the opposite direction here from some of these other guys but I don't know do you have any notes on either Finney Sandin Pelica or Danielson specifically before we get into a lot of my Casper notes. I think St. and Pelican has looked a lot more confident lately. I think that's encouraging.

There were multiple games in the first two months of this season where I was like, man, is this guy who could even still benefit from some time in Grand Rapids? Or could he have benefited from starting out down there? He had a really good preseason. And I don't dispute that he kind of earned his way, especially with how thin the bottom half of their blue line is. But with those offensive defensemen confidence,

massive for them. And so that's been the most encouraging thing for me over the last two weeks for Sandin Pelica as he's calling for the puck and he's activating in the places even at five on five that make him dangerous. That's something that I don't think I was seeing over the first six weeks of the season. And you wonder, like, are you really benefiting the long-term future of this kid if he's not able to play like that? So the fact that he's finding that, I won't use found because I guess there's still a lot of season left to see how that keeps. But that's that's been really encouraging. And I think, you know, Daneson started the season injured.

And I think he would have made the team if he hadn't been injured in the preseason. So he comes up after, you know, 15 games or so. And I think he's made a positive impact for them. I think as a playmaker, you can see a path to being a second line center there. And again, I mentioned, you know, finishing the one last night, or not finishing the one last night, he comes back a shift later and sets up a goal to Simon Edvenson. He's got that skill. He's got that vision all really.

And, you know, everyone's talked a ton about Finney. He's an amazing story. So that draft class is looking really strong for them. One of the potentially most impactful pieces of it hasn't even debuted yet. And that's Trey Augustine the goaltender of Michigan State. So that class is looking like a big deal for the Red Wings. Yeah, you mentioned Sandy and Pelica there, particularly on this road trip, where he's really kind of come alive offensively at the game with a couple assists against the Canucks

and then scoring the goal in Calgary. And I think those plays demonstrated exactly what this team was maybe missing in past years. in terms of a limiting factor for them for that 5-on-5 offense when like they wouldn't have that initial rush opportunity. Things would get bogged down so much, especially if Larkin wasn't out there where it's like partly because of the the relative lack of skill of defensemen, aside from Sider and Edvinson,

you just have these guys who are later stages of their career and they're just kind of glued to the blue line. And you know exactly what's going to happen. You go low to high, point shot, low percentage, goes out, and the offensive zone sequence is done. and then you get Sandin Belka come in and he's moving around. The goal he scored against Calgary was a perfect display of that. It's this kind of cycle high in the zone.

He detaches from the blue line, opens up for a one-time shot, cross-seam from De Brinkat, I believe, and then hammers at home. And that's just a weapon, I think, that this team didn't really have available to them in the past. And it's small doses so far as you'd expect for any rookie defensemen, but I feel like coming along and showing those flashes at the very least

is huge for them, and for him, obviously. individually moving forward. The way he got himself lost in that coverage, too, on that goal, right? Like, it's not like he made a B-line for that one-timer spot. He kind of drifts, and then he sees where the seam is going to be, and he drifts back into that, calls for it, you know, beaver tails it a little bit, which takes some confidence in itself, and then rips it exactly where he wants it. So, yeah, I agree. That goal was textbook in what you want to see from him. His goals, when he was coming up in the Swedish hockey league, a lot of them came from

that spot right on the left circle and i as i was watching him you know one of the things i wondered is like how often is that going to be there for him in the nchel because you know he could play there like it's especially depending on how things go in the future you could put him on the flank but the redmings have alice de brinkett and lucas raymond and on the way michael bransig knee guard all of whom i think they're going to want to kind of use over on that part of the ice brancic neigart i think has a good pitch to play down low and de brinket is playing down low on their top power play right now. So maybe you could find space for him to be on that flank. But it was a concern of mine because it's like, is that shot going to even be there for him when he's in

Detroit? Or is this something that's going to kind of go away in his game as he's more of a walk the line type blue liner? So the fact that he found that at five on five and got himself into what is really his sweet spot, again, just something that I think you're really encouraged by through the Red Wings. The Finney conversation is interesting to me because obviously starting the season was a revelation and the idea of a seventh round rookie coming in and playing on the top line and producing and that that explosion game he had which you referenced earlier against the oilers at home was a feather in his cap and then you know gets bumped down a little bit as you'd expect for any young player there's after that first 10 15 20 games where some of the adrenaline

runs out you bump in a bit of that rookie wall and then you have to adjust on the fly he's playing with different players we got to see this team kind of realize I think it's most dangerous version of itself, where they had to bring it on that top line with Raymond and Larkin, and it was only a five or six game stretch or whatever for 60 minutes. And it was an absolute sight to behold. I think Todd McClellan's smart to not lean on that long, like fully, or full time, because it really limits some of your options down the lineup. And so we've seen Finney come back up. And there, I'm not sure if you are having these conversations, but I've seen online a lot of people wondering whether it's the most net positive thing for the red wings to do

in terms of having him up there. His counting stats are a bit down. Viniz are recently and what they're going to do there. Every time I watch him, I'm blown away. And I think even during this road trip, even without creating just the activity and how involved he is, the puck pursuit,

the fact that he's drawn 10 penalties and taking just one, I feel like there's certain elements to his game. It's a young player. It's going to be a work in progress. But I feel like the vision is very worth exploring here in terms of the dynamic he adds to playing with Larkin and Raymond

and then obviously giving them a second layer offense with the brinket on his on his own line. Similar to what we see, I think, obviously, on a much smaller scale, but like what Lekinen adds to the McKinnon-Nachis line, right? Where it's like kind of just this worker bee that doesn't really need the puck on a stick a lot, but it's going to create a couple opportunities, is going to drive hard to the net, is going to win battles and forecheck. And I feel like he's done that.

So even without the points, I still come away from all these viewings being very impressed by some of the stuff he's putting on tape and the reps he's adding to his name. Yeah, I think you're spot on. Lekanin, Zach Hyman, Brian Rust. These are some of the names that I think of with him, Andre Palat, if you want another seventh round pick type, right, who's in that same vein. These are some of the names I think of,

of the role that I think he can play for them and why the Red Wings like him there so much. Now, I will say, you like him there for a lot of these elements, right? The pace, the ability to go win battles. I wonder if at some point the Red Wings get to a place where they decide, they got to get Markle Casper going, and that's the exact same kind of role that he fit when he was on that line last year.

And Marco Casper, I think, has come on over the last two to three weeks, and he's finding the smaller details in his game again. But the points aren't coming. And he's a guy who I think confidence-wise, I think he really wants to do well. And so if I were the Red Wings coaching staff, I would give a long look to, it's tough because Finney's played well there. And you don't want it to seem like you're demoting Finney. But I would put Marco Casper there for a stretch and see if you can use that as a spark

to get him going to, because he is doing those little things well again, I think, and finding some offense out of that, I think would really benefit the Red Wings as a whole. You can move everything around again after that, although I get that it's tough if that works to change it. But he can bring a lot of those similar elements, and I think you alluded to it earlier.

Like, it's not been the next step that I think a lot of people expected myself included from Casper this year. You look at the second half he had last year. The production was probably, not sustainable like he shot 20 something percent in the second half of last season but he was playing if you compared him to sam bennett and anthony sirelli who were the number two centers on four of the last like six stanley cup winners he was in line with what those guys were doing and that

looked like to me the most important development in the redminks organization last season was marco casper looking like that kind of player you know he was he was driving play he was tilting the ice he was producing the fact that he's sitting here 30 games in 32 games into the season with four points, I would have never guessed, even a sophomore slump to be like this. I also expected, I mean, the preseason chance and I had him on our list of our guys. And he was awesome. He was awesome in camp.

Like, it was their best line with the Brickett and Caney camp. I was very impressed by him down the stretch. And part of it is Pucks were just going in for him. And he scores nine goals in the final 18 games, but just passed the eye test to me. Like, he was such a dog winning so many battles and the shot looked legit. And then so for him to come out of the game in his sophomore season, as you said, three goals so far on 88 attempts. It's just been such a curse season even beyond that,

where pucks just have not been going in for him and his team when he's out there. I think he's got a 4.2 on a shooting percentage of 5-1-5 this season, which is the 13th lowest mark out of 564 skaters with 200 minutes. And a great example of that was that Danielson play you talked about off the top, where he gets a puck, does the right thing, sets him up for a two-on-one tap in, and Danielson just can't corral it and put it in. the net and he gets the XG on that's got to be like point eight yeah he did everything right the

the punches didn't go in um another one that he doesn't get credit for is the edvinson goal that they score in that game where he starts that play and initiates it with a nice pass out of the zone and then gets the third assist or whatever and so he's not even on the score sheet for it i guess he's on the ice for a goal finally but he doesn't get an assist to his name and he has just one of those so far so it's tricky because i imagine like every young player you mentioned him wanting to do well everyone i think even on the outside wants to see progress or, you know, upward development for young players, right? Where it's like you show something as a rookie, we know about the sophomore slump,

but you still want to see strides made. And a lot of these other guys around him are doing that. We're seeing some of these young players integrated and producing, and he hasn't. And that must be so frustrating. And that takes its toll, I think, in terms of maybe changing some of their decisions you make as well. So there's an element to that. And then from the outside for maybe your eye, you look at it, you look at the numbers, you think about this stuff logically.

and it's like there's no way this can continue even if he keeps playing the exact same way pucks are going to start going in he's going to start getting more points it's a lot easier for us to say that from the outside as opposed to him or the team having a deal with at night tonight where you keep looking up and seeing zeros on the box score yeah i forget who it was that said this recently i don't know if it was mcclellan or if it was an analyst um might have been chris osgoat even on the broadcast but like he's so young in his career that he hasn't seen the other side of one of these yet, right? Like, he, he took a little while to come on strong in the second half last year, but at that point, that just still feels like linear growth, right? I'm learning,

I'm learning, I'm learning, I'm there. The NHL is all about this, right? And trying to flatten it as much as you can. And I guess we're on radio. So that hand jester didn't mean anything, but it's all about maybe up and down motion. Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. Like, you're going to have five games, seven games. Patrick Kane just had a recent stretch of nine or 10 games where he didn't score, right? And that's Patrick Kane. He's going to be the 50th player all time. to score 500 goals in this league. So it happens this way. And I think the tough part is for him, he's going to have to see it come out,

see himself come out the other side of it and learn that this is how it goes sometimes. I think that's why the sophomore slump exists because you have players that haven't experienced that yet and maybe ever in their careers. Usually if you're making it to the NHL, you've been probably the best player or one of the best players at every level you've played at. So Casper pushes himself hard. He's a worker. And to your point, he's doing all the little things well.

why I think this is going to break for him. Like, it's just, it's going to, I'm a huge believer in his game. It's just one of those things that until it does, you're kind of like, what is it going to take to get through this? And so I think, if it were me, I would, I would be doing everything I could to spark him, including putting him on that top line. Well, the brutal thing for him in terms of sequencing is he starts the year with De Brinket and I thought they were playing well, especially at home because, you know, Todd McClellan

was leaning on Larkin's line to really just go head to head against other team's best players. it was opening up opportunities for them to cook offensively, and they were getting looks. He just wasn't part of the scoring. And then DeBrinquet starts the year, what, zero goals in his first eight games, despite leading the league and expected goals, getting like four or five grade A as a game. And then they split those guys up. He's playing with different players. The Brinket goes off and has 16 goals in 24 games since,

and Marco Casper is not on that line anymore. And so he's not benefiting from that. So I feel like that context is really important in evaluating his play this season. All right, Max, let's take our break here. And then we come back, we'll jump right back into it and close out today's conversation on the Detroit Red Wings. You're listening to the HockeyPedio cast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. All right, we're back here on the HockeyPedocast, joined by Max Bultman, talking about the Red Wings in the first 32 games we've seen from them. So I was mentioning the 5-15 offense. I was mentioning the penalty kill, some of these young guys contributing.

I think ultimately, while all that stuff's nice, the most important development is the players who are already good, the core players, just leveling up this year and taking another step towards their dominance. And cider in particular, I feel like merits a lot of discussion here. Her mutual pal, Prashant Ayre wrote a really nice piece in a substack recently kind of drawing out a very compelling MVP case for mostiders so far this season in terms of a lot of the on-off stuff, his usage. the impact he's having on this team and I recommend everyone goes read that but I want to talk more about that and the strides he's made here as what a 24 year old now

in his fifth full NHL season playing full time now with Simon Edvincent and kind of realizing the potential of that pair and just what an absolute beast he's been certainly when he came onto the scene in that rookie season me and I think Ryan had did a show like fully devoted to Mosider

and just him just blowing everyone away just rocking everyone away just rocking everyone that challenged him, how dominant he looked at doing the hardest thing, which is being a rookie teenage defenseman to come into the league and produce the way he was. And then he goes through a bit of a rough spell. I think some of that was the team around him, the circumstances in terms of his usage. You know, with all due respect to our guy, Ben Chirot, I equated to playing with like a, or training with a weighted best where it's like you go through these reps in difficult

situations. And all of a sudden now you're better off for it in more favorable circumstances is playing with a guy, like Edvinson, who can maximize what he does on the ice. And so that pair and cider in particular have been just absolutely awesome. And you said top 10 defensemen, I mean, the Norris market right now is showing no respect to the season he's having. I think he's like plus 50,000 to win the Norris, like just in a rest of the field, essentially conversation with every other defenseman who's not even going to sniff a top 10 vote. And if I had a ballot or if we were doing voting right now, I'd obviously it's McCarr and

and everyone else in terms of their production. But I think there's a really, really interesting case to make for him to be a finalist and certainly a top three to five guy just based on what he's meant to this team and how good they are when he's out there every single night. I agree. He'd be on my ballot if I was voting today. And I think the reason that the public view or the market's view on that probably does have something to do with team success, we don't see that quite as much on the Norris as we

do with like the heart, for example. But I do think it still matters to people. and the fact that the Red Wings haven't been a playoff team for his entire career as two effects. One, I think it gives the impression that things aren't, you know, if things as a whole there aren't going well, like there can't be individual things that are going amazingly well. And two, I just think it limits the number of people who are seeing him as often as maybe you

would a team that's a contender, right? So Red Wings are on national TV a fair bit and all that, but I think in a way reputation is built in the playoffs that leads into some of this. So if you look at the stats right now, like he has the third best expected goal share in the NHL among defensemen that have played at least 400 minutes. And he's played 600, right? Like the two guys ahead of him, he's like 150 minutes ahead of. So the fact that he's tilting the ice to that degree, I think is staggering, especially on a team that, you know, he doesn't play for a Carolina that's always tilting the ice. This is not necessarily who the Red Wings are, although it's been better in that regard. The offense has come along.

And I think if there's a reason that he's getting more recognition, it is the. offense you know now he's kind of pretty i looked a while back at like what does it look like what does it have to be analytically and points wise for a defenseman who's not like a 60 plus point guy to be a norris finalist and he's there he's above and beyond it where he is right now both points wise and uh analytically so it it's a lot of things right i think some of it is he's 24 now he's in the peak of his prime i think he's figured out the risk reward balance to a really high degree the physicality is there it actually like guys aren't challenging him as much as they were as rookie year.

I think there's an idea that Moritz-Sighter isn't as physical today as he was in his rookie year. It's just because in his rookie year, everyone went to go knock him down a peg and he would reverse hit them and they would go on their ass, right? I don't know. Sorry if I said something I'm not allowed to say on the radio there. But that's how it's gone, I think, is that he's earned that respect. And so he doesn't have to be that same killer.

He doesn't have as many opportunities for some of that. But he is still a force in every way. And I think he's just like I said, figured out the risk-reward balance. in a way that allows him to maximize himself. I think it's strange to say because Dylan Larkin has been the Bredmings best player for my entire career as a beatwriter watching and covering this team. He's having a career year. And yet I think it's fair to have the conversation on if Mort Sider is now their best

player, even though Larkin has only gotten better as well just because of how massive his impact has been. Yeah, I think it's the usage like over 25 minutes per game and never missing games. I think that's seventh most in the league on a per game basis. the difficulty of those minutes, getting matched up, head to head against other team's best players, I think 44% offensive zone starts, and then how they're dominating in that.

Dom's net rating from Prashant's article has them third in the league in terms of value provided behind just McCar and McKinnon. They're up 34 to 21. In his 5-15 minutes, they're down 50 to 27 when he's off the ice, now playing a lot with Larkin. As you mentioned, helps. And similar to that effect we see with McKinnon and McCar, they kind of go hand in hand in terms of the symbiotic relationship,

but that's okay. That's what good teams do and have in their arsenal. And then the heat maps on hockey viz from Micah's site in terms of the quality of shots they give up when he's out there. And it's just like blue blobs everywhere where you're not getting anything on the inside. And then as soon as he comes off the ice, it's just a free for all around the net. And I feel like all that stuff tied together makes a very compelling argument for his value. As I said, I want to take a bigger picture view of the organization. But before we do that, just on the note of guys leveling up here, you got any other notes on

on Larkin in terms of obviously covering him now for I don't know how many years you've been there covering him but I imagine a good chunk of his career here now and sort of this progress we've seen right where he comes into the league as a teenager while this organization is turning itself over the last vestiges of the previous era he gets a handful of playoff games as a rookie has not played on that stage since gets shot like keeps producing individually get some shine in the four nations last year where he just plays so well that he works his way up the pecking road around Team USA and becomes such a vital piece of that towards the end of that tournament and figures to be that once again at the upcoming Olympics this year,

signs that contract a couple of years ago has been very vocal, publicly about wanting to turn this thing around and not kind of like leading by example, obviously on the ice with his play, but also off the ice in terms of like, come on, like, let's go, let's have a bit more urgency here in terms of providing me with some support and how that plays into some decisions moving forward as well. And, you know, it's on Larkin and kind of just that journey he's been on in Detroit and then you've been on with him. You know, it's interesting because you never know when a team is at the depths that they were at in like 2020, 2021, how much of a player's results are due to what's around them and how different would it look with better supporting cast, right? And I always thought Larkin had more in him then.

And I don't know that he's doing anything that different than he was then, other than there's more around him to do the things that I think he's always tried to be doing and to be able to be deployed in a way that I think maximizes him. I think if you're, he's their leading scorer, or at least Alex St. Brinkin may have overtaken him in the last day or two, actually. But he's been their leading scorer most of the season. but he also doesn't on a given night have to score to have a good game and going back to that McDavid game we talked about in October when he kind of took McDavid

completely out of that game and had a four point night himself like I asked him after that game what is your mentality in this matchup and he was like I just have to you have to be okay with it just being all about taking him away I think that's always been in him

like he played with Henrik Zetterberg early in his career and I think that's something that he's talked about, that Zetterberg told him some nights, nothing's going to happen or a lot of shifts, nothing's going to happen, and that's okay. I know that's always been in his psychology. I just think he's in a position now, and maybe in his career, but also with his roster, where he can embrace that fully. And there can be nights where Larkin has one secondary assist or an empty net goal, and he played a really good game, and we don't have to talk about it.

And I think that's a big part of what I'm seeing is that it's, he's a great hockey player. This is what you saw at the four nations. He was not in a feature role for that team, but he scores a huge goal against Canada. You're noticing him

on all these big shifts. Sometimes it's a goal. Sometimes it's not a goal. But I think when you have a guy like that who embraces just winning and doing whatever it's going to take on a given shift, that's where you get really good outcomes.

And that's the thing I attribute it to. Yeah, the way he kind of runs counter to a lot of the other top superstars in the league right now is really interesting. for me because I think we've seen, you know, every team is so, um, intent right now on maximizing their offense. And in this new wave of the NHL, like being more efficient offensively, putting their star players in advantageous positions, whether it's with offensive

zone starts or against weaker competition or limiting the PK usage and just exclusively being on the power play and kind of like being careful about when they're out there so that they can do what they do best, which is score and help the team win that way. And part of it is because of a skill set. I think part of it is because of the way this team is constructed. right now with the young players coming along and not having other options necessarily, but he's taken on this burden and responsibility with the PK stuff we mentioned, with the zone starts, with what he does in the draw, kind of those nights he mentioned where he can lead and tilt the ice, but not necessarily score himself, but the team wins

anyways because of what he did and how he contributed. And so I think like that role he has right now and he's occupying with those specific tasks and then how he's producing within it makes him a bit of an aberration compared to a lot of the other scoring leaders in the league where they're certainly doing it I think in more curated minutes and he does not have the benefit of that at all like they just basically ask him to do everything and he's passing with flying colors and I think that's pretty remarkable yeah it's funny because I don't know that his like defensive metrics would indicate that he should be like a selky candidate to me but I've always felt like if he's

going to win a major award that's the one that he'd be up for you know he's a he's a good two-way player like the numbers say he's a very good two-wave center but it's not in that like Alexander Barkov, like this guy annihilates opposing offenses when he's out their way. And yet I do feel like that's the lane that he occupies is more in that way. Like if he's going to be I think he can

be a top 10 center in the league. And like on a given night, he can be maybe even a little bit better than that. On his best night, he's outstanding. And I think that's the trophy that if he's ever going to win one, it's probably in that lane more so than it is, you know, the Rock of Richard or even the heart.

Although, you know, if the Red Wings have a have a monster year or make the playoffs and he's the central piece. I guess that's not impossible to be in that conversation. But I just think Selke's his lane. Okay, let's end with this. A kind of a long-term view, I guess, in terms of a team

building approach because, and I spoke about this in the off season, but I think it's worth reiterating now with everyone being contractually obligated to talk about Quinn Hughes and the story about him being available and what that would look like and the potential suitors. This organization's approach this summer,

I think was very interesting because comparing it to previous ones where I think to their detriment they were a bit too desperate in turning this thing around and they had cap space and so they went out and just splashed all their money

on veterans and didn't wind up getting I think what they were hoping for from a lot of those guys they were very sensible and low risk and noncommittal with kind of fringe ads

for the most part this off season right they bring in Appleton for two years 2.9 they bring in JVR for one by one they bring in Gibson but that's still only two years and they send out Marzik in the process

so the actual net cap gain is only I guess taken on two more million this season and then even with some of their secondary and tertiary young RFAs whether it's a Soder Blom, Berggrin or Albert Johansson who plays a bigger role than those guys but they went one, two years

on those guys as opposed to committing longer term with extra years down the road and I think part of that was certainly trying to be a bit more pragmatic about scaling this thing out maintaining flexibility and that's exactly what they accomplished. Like probably no team.

I know everyone's going to have cap space moving forward, but no team is a better example of that than them where they're going to spend a bunch on Edvinson's second deal this summer. But right now they have $62 million committed and the cap is going to be at least 104. So that's over $40 million. With the amount of talent available, at least in the UFA market,

it's going to be tough to fill that. I think that's probably a good thing based on what I just said about how they spent in previous off-season before this one. but I do think that's why they're a very interesting Quinn Hughes landing spot beyond the Michigan connection and obviously the stylistic fit of adding a left shot who could either play with cider in the top pair or give you a 1A, 1B look splitting those guys up

is because of the possibilities they have available to the model with a lot of young Chi players committing to the star core of Lark and Raymond and Sider on previous contract terms where it's like each of those guys around 8 million is a bargain of all bargains moving forward. And so now what you do with it is going to be very important. But they nailed those first couple steps.

And so what they do with that, I think, is going to bear watching. And I'm curious for a take on sort of the design this off season or this past off season in terms of how they approach that. And then what the vision or what the plan is for executing upon it now that they have these possibilities available to them. Yeah. Well, first of all, I totally agree with you on both of those fronts. Like, I think last office.

season, first of all, I think they wanted to do more than they were able to do. I think the fact that nobody got to July 1, which is not going to be a one-off in my opinion, and we're already starting to see that. This rising cap has meant that almost everyone can keep their players. And I think for a team that is at this exact moment in their build, where you kind of have your drafted core and now you're ready to augment, that's tough for them, that free agency is going to be, at least for the next two or three years here while everyone adjusts where these cap ceilings are able to keep their players. That's where I think Quinn Hughes becomes a really interesting conversation

because I do think he'd be perfect for them. And I think they have the prospect capital to do it. I think they are at the age range. I mean, almost everyone's at the age range. We're adding a 26-year-old Norris-level defenseman makes a lot of sense, but particularly the Red Wings. Like he's two years older than Moritz Cider. He's three years younger than Dellen Larkin,

one or two years younger than Alex de Brinkett. He's right in their core range. right and so um i i think they're a perfect fit for them and hammering out a deal like that is always going to be easier for guys like us to talk about than it is for these teams to you know settle on the particulars of but they got to be all in on something like this and and when i say all in like i know there are certain players that i think you try to keep out of that and you do everything you can to keep out of that but they got to pursue this really aggressively because to me i think that could be the identity of the redway

is a blue line that has Quinn Hughes, Morth Cider, and in my opinion, Simon Edvinson, as its three-headed monster at the top, would be the best blue light in the NHL. And I think if you're able to pull that off, that's your strength all of a sudden. You know, the fact that they weren't able to get a top two pick, a top three pick in this entire rebuild is such a talking point in this market. And I think even outside the market, people will talk about them. But you come away with a blue line like that, and it almost like, that's what you have them.

Okay, sure, you don't have Nathan McKinnon, but you have, you can have the best blue line. in the NHL. And I think that's how they have to look at this and why they need to pursue Quinn Hughes extremely aggressively. Summer of 2027, which is when he would be a UFA, of course. They have 36 million committed. Now, Casper is going to need a second deal, assuming he's part of this team. Edvinson, as I said, this summer. But yeah, pretty much everyone in some of those past mistakes and past commitments are going to be off. I think Comfer and Rasmussen are going to be in the final years of their deal at that time. But just how clean those books are and sort of the possibility abilities, I think, of rounding everything out and really capitalizing on that for a lot of

these teams that are in this position, it's going to have to come, I think, be a trade because as you mentioned, you look at the talent available in the UFA pool, and it's just not really there in terms of it's great to have the money. And for some teams, it's going to be fine if you overpay just because you're a good team already. You have the benefit or luxury of the space, and so you just add a good player and try to win with them. But I feel like getting creative here or getting ambitious in terms of the build is going

be very important. So I'm really curious to see how that plays out. All right, Max, let's get out of here. I think that's all I had. I don't know. Were there any other notes on the Red Wings? We didn't talk much about the goaltending, but I don't know. It's gotten better with Gibson. I think the numbers early on and the expectations are high for him finally leaving Anaheim and coming here and seeing what that could look like. The numbers were where they were. I thought that a lot of the goals he was giving up were really unfortunate. There was a lot of tips and weird bounces and stuff. And listen, goalies need to make those saves, and it is what it is, but he's bounced back a little bit here. I think the sport logic actually has them as plus two goals, save above expected for the year now after this road trip.

So that's encouraging. I think most importantly, not overworking a 38-year-old Camtow, but the way they did down the stretch last year, where the wheels really came off just because they had no one else they could trust the net was a big reason why they faded the way they did. And so splitting up those starts and distributing them more evenly is going to serve them well. And I think in terms of that, it's mission accomplished. Yes. And like the first six weeks of this season, you're right. Like they gave up a lot of very difficult looks for John Gibson to stop.

My point, I think, in analyzing it, was always like, yes. Like it's not blaming John Gibson here necessarily, but you went out and got him because you wanted him to elevate what you had, which was pretty much that. It was pretty much a steady flow for the last four or five years of guys who couldn't really bail you out. And you went and got John Gibson to bail you out. He wasn't doing that. Over the last week, he's starting to do that. And I think if that's the start of a trend, it bodes extremely well for the Red Wings.

I know a lot of fans out there really want to see Sebastian Kosa, who's their top goalie prospect. He's having an amazing year in the HL. And I think you will. I think at some point you're going to see him because he's a big part of their future. And, you know, you have two older goalies. You know, you very rarely get perfect health from that. But even if you do, there's a big incentive for the Red Wings to get Kosa some runway at the end of this year, given that almost certainly it's Gibson and Kosa sharing that next year.

But the best path, in my eyes, for the Red Wings to make the playoffs and really do anything of substance, even win around or whatever, is to have John Gibson find it. Because I just don't think you're going to be able to get that kind of performance from a rookie. Even if long term, yeah, you want to see what you have, all that stuff. I get it. The best path was always to find a way to help John Gibson figure it out. And if that's what's happening right now, it's going to mean really good things for them. All right, buddy. What do you want to promote the way out?

Oh, boy. Well, you could listen to the athletic hockey show on our, on our, on, on, on, on, really anywhere you get podcast, subscribe on YouTube. We would really appreciate that. And then obviously we always appreciate anyone subscribing and reading the athletics. So I really appreciate you having me on here. It's great to see and talk to you again. Yeah, it was great to catch up.

Looking forward to doing it again soon. We can't let as this much time pass between our next chats. If you enjoyed today's show, give us a five-star review wherever you listen. Subscribe to the PDOCs Patreon as well for extra shows we've got on the feed this week. And that's all for another week of shows. We'll be back on Sunday evening with Trans for our usual Sunday special. I hope everyone has a great weekend. Thank you for listening to the HockeyPedio cast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network.