The Hockey PDOcast - Deep Diving the Red Wings

Episode Date: February 8, 2023

Max Bultman and Ryan Hana join Dimitri to talk about the progress the Red Wings have made this season, whether their approach to the way they want to play makes sense for where they're at as an organization and the uncertain futures of players like Dylan Larkin and Jakub Vrana.This podcast is produced by Dominic SramatyThe views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

dressing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filipovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name is Dimitri Philpovich. And joining me is my good buddy, Ryan. And Ryan, what's going on, man? Not much, Temeanor. Thanks for having me. Oh, my pleasure.

Also joining us. We're doing a three-person show, which I haven't done in a while. So I'm excited to try to navigate these bumpy waters. Is our mutual Fred, Max, Baldwin. Max, what's going on, man? Not a lot. How are you guys doing? We're doing well. This is going to be fun. We're going to talk Detroit Red Wings. We decided to reconvene.

I think I had you guys on at roughly this time last year as well. And we did a bit of a state of the Union talking about the Red Wings. So excited to get into it. I guess, Ryan, I'll pitch it to you here. What's the vibe like right now around the team, around people covering it, around the fan base? Because there's a clear sort of improvement this year compared to last year and basically the three or four years before that in terms of gold differential in terms of point percentage all that good stuff but are people satisfied

with like how much of an improvement or how much of a step this team has taken so far the season uh it's it's a good question max and i already laughing uh you know what the vibe is is definitely not at its highest point right now but it doesn't mean that the team hasn't improved like you mentioned, Dmitri, you can see clearly in their game the ways they've taken a step. Some of that is the players they brought in. Some of that is Derek Lalone in his systems and trying to implement a little bit more of a sustainable risk management style of a hockey game, pretty much teaching this team how to win if and when they have a better roster. The things that are bringing the vibe down right now, though, are some, you know,

the Red Wings are approaching the trade deadline. They don't look like a playoff team. That's not likely at all. and then they have two key possible trade pieces who have been out most of the year in Tyler Bertuzi and Jacob Verona and for very different reasons their trade value has either you know almost completely evaporated in the case of Jacob Verona or in Tyler Bertuzi it's it's a little tenuous you don't know what Suiseman's going to be able to do so and even that like those are just almost out of anyone's control but it's all colored with the this is the Connor Biddard draft to hear. So Red Wings fans are looking up at the playoffs and that feels out of reach. They're looking down at the draft lottery standing, so to speak, and that seems out of reach.

So it feels a little mucky right now. It's kind of hard to see the force for the trees if you're a Red Wings fan at the moment. Max, let me translate that. Let me translate that. They are more despaired than they were before because of what you said. Like there is almost everyone is worried about something, whether it's the lottery or whether it's, you know, not making the playoff. Like, you still have some people who I think are holding a hope for that. But I think like the general, I forget who it is. Is it, um, is it evolving hockey or is it hockey viz? Micah Blake McCurdy who does like the misery rankings where it's like, yeah. Yeah. So that's where that's what it is, right? It's like they are, that's accurate to the Red Vicks is it's being in the head middle ground

where you're probably going to finish like 11th or 12th in the lottery standings, which is like, you know, four spots out of the playoffs. I think the despair is almost, I don't know if it's as high as like the truly terrible 2019-20 season, but it's much higher than it was the last two years. Well, yeah, they're in this weird spot where Dom's playoff probability has them at 1% to make the playoffs right now, but also based on their current standing,

they hold a 3% chance at picking first. And it's interesting because I know that, you know, the Red Wings and Red Wings fans, I'm sure, have a very complicated history with, you know, relying on the draft lottery and thinking that those odds mean anything in terms of solidifying where they're going to pick. But they're in this weird spot where they almost can't afford to leapfrog anyone else at this point, because literally if they move up one more spot in the NHL standings, they go down to zero percent in terms of picking first. And that would be almost even more bleak, right? So right now, whether it's Florida, whether it's the Islanders,

whether it's the Predators, it feels like those are the three teams that are just ahead of them in terms of point percentage. And they really can't afford to pass any of those teams, but also they're trying to talk themselves into playing, getting these like meaningful competitive reps in, right? Like, I know you wrote recently about how long it's been since you could even sort of see the path towards the playoffs. And how even if they're on the outside looking in, they're thinking, all right, well, this is meaningful experience. We're getting some of these young players games that matter in February. very March and hopefully, you know, that translates into future success or something to build off moving forward, but at what cost? Totally. I mean, I think that's a pretty good synopsis of where things stand, right? Like,

you're looking, you know, the Islanders go in a red. Like, I do think that's going to put them, whether it's the playoffs or not, like, solidly ahead of the Red Wings. I think the Panthers are just better. Like, they just, I don't know why they're this low anyway. But you have those teams like, Nashville, I don't know, Nashville could go one, two ways in the near future here. Ottawa, Philly, St. Louis. Like, I think those are all teams. This is like a cluster right now. And in a lot of ways, I think it's a preferable cluster to be in than like the Columbus,

Chicago cluster, I guess, like in terms of night to night, you know, watchability. But, yeah, I think the, I see the phrase mushy middle in, I think every common section of every story at this point. And that, if you want like the window into the deep dark fears of the Redmings fan, that's where it starts. Yeah, that's definitely where you don't want to be. Ryan, so the 22nd and point percentage right now, you're kind of tracking their progress. The year before they were 25th, they were 27, 31st in 2019, 20 when they played at like a 45 point pace before the season was shut down. So they've gotten better.

And I think, you know, the mission statement or goal heading into this season, for them was to show that clear progression, right? That's why you go out and you commit $75 million to Ben Chirot to David Perron, to Billy Huso, to, you know, Dominic Kubolique, everyone that they wound up bringing in. And so they have shown that improvement. But I guess it's fair to wonder, like, whether it was enough or whether they feel like it accomplished the job they were trying to accomplish. Right. I think when Eisenman inherited this group in 2019, it was, an outer wasteland in terms of assets. And so he did the right thing of just like fully stripping it down, you know, leveraging cap space they had to get extra picks, you know, doing every,

every trade they could to basically long term wise accumulate as many assets as they could. And that's sort of the easy part in terms of tearing it down and doing that. I think it's much more difficult to build it up. And so this really felt like sort of the first, the first wave of going in that direction. And I think it's fair to be sort of critical based on the early returns of it at the very least. Yeah, first and foremost, you're completely right. It is fair to be critical. I know when those signings were happening, there was a lot of, I mean, excitement for Red Wing's fans, but a lot of like, kind of nervous excitement. Like, you know, is Ben Shrotworth the four point four times four point 75 or whatever he's making? Do you want to commit that many years to cop, et cetera, et cetera?

I think the reasoning behind why Arsman did that is he just watched Detroit get caved far too often the years prior, you know, to the tune of 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 goals plus. And I know a lot gets made of anyone of Weizmann's responses, and he'll be the first to tell you, don't read too much into what I say, but there were a couple times they, like, Iso-cammed him, and you could see him grinding his teeth down. You're like, this guy hates losing. You compound that with Lucas Raymond and most Sider had phenomenal rookie seasons, and he wanted to build structure around what is really going to be the core of that team for the future.

Fair to be critical, yes. I do get the reasoning. There's also the financial aspect to this, whether people like to talk about it or not. The Red Wings have a new arena. The NHL is really, coming out of the pandemic, is really geared towards kind of recouping costs

or recouping expenses. They need to put butts and seats. I'm sure that was also within the range of what the Red Wings management or ownership was thinking of when they went out and spent. But then you consider the poor performance of these guys. Yeah, Vili Huso has been great. I think he's come down to Earth a little bit. He's not, you know, playing the lights out at the top of all goals saved above expected

charts anymore. Cooblee had a really hot run there. I think Perraun has been quietly very good. You look at the impact for Ben Chiron on the Red Wing's. Probably, you know, a lot of analytical models will tell you it's a net negative. Cop has been, I think, a little bit underappreciated this year considering the course of injury he had and Max has done a really good job kind of illuminating that and writing a little bit more about it. But he hasn't blown the doors wide open. So fair to be critical of Eisenman's spend? Yeah, definitely.

Has it, without those guys, would they be at the bottom of the standings, you know, leading the charge for Bedard? I actually don't think so. I think the Red Wings are more or less close to where they would have been anyways, considering Bertuzian and Verona have been out all year. Well, I think part of it too is they, you have a new coach, right? Like, you make a change to a new coach. And if you don't make some kind of step forward, all of a sudden, like, you really feel like a franchise is just totally spinning its wheels.

And I guess, let alone take a step back. And then it's like, oh, geez, the old coach wasn't even the problem. So I think they did have to do something this offseason to put Derek Colon in a better position than they had Jeff Blasheel in. And I also think they probably thought, like, you know, I think that the sophomore slump stuff on like cider and Raymond and like maybe a little overblown at times. But like, I think they did probably expect that we're going to be a little better than this, right? And if they are, then those are your big guns, right? Like you see it so often you go as your stars go. And coming into this year, I certainly thought that those guys were going to take that leap to being, you know, Lucas Raymond challenging to be the Redmond's leading score and, you know, mouse sight or threatening a couple Norris ballots here or there.

And that hasn't happened. So it's, I think that's part of it, too, as much as anything is like if those guys do take a step and that you add in, you know, the insulation. that a Peron gives, that a cop gives, it's not hard to see the ways that it could have been a little better. But I think a lot of it comes back down to knowing you got to put a new coach in a better situation than what the previous guy had. Yeah, I think there's also something to certainly,

you know, creating competitive environments where you can better evaluate your young players and give them a chance to actually succeed, right? Beyond like making the playoffs or whatever, or whatever value that can provide moving forward, I think just like not having these bleak soul-crushing experiences where you're just showing up to the rink and losing five nothing every night and just getting embarrassed. I think that certainly helps. And so I didn't mind the decision to go out and

spend money, even if it didn't ultimately move the needle that much moving forward, especially because you basically have this year and next of your two cornerstones in Raymond and Sider making on their ELCs less than a million dollars. That gives you a lot of wiggle room to kind of take on money up front. I didn't really love like attaching some of the term to some of those. deals, I guess that's part of doing business in an unrestricted free agency. And obviously, you know, the Ben Chirot one, we're going to talk more about him when we talk about Sider. That's sort of in its own camp, because regardless of term, I think, I think literally a one-year, one-million dollar deal would have been like, I don't really love this for them because I just don't think,

I don't trust any coach to properly evaluate Ben Chirot and, and use him accordingly. I guess to Derek Lohan's credit, eventually after 40 games or so or 35 games, he eventually made the necessary change. But even him, it took him, But, like, after the first handful of games, I think anyone watching the Red Wings is like, all right, maybe let's give Mo Cider someone else and see if he can do a little better. And then all of a sudden, the 30 games in and Ben Chirot still play with him and still weighing him down. Yeah, I mean, it's, it was also a little bit of tough timing here because I think the other thing that you saw, if you watch those first 10 to 15 Red Wings games is Moritz Cider could turn the puck over a ton in the first, like, month of the season.

And so, like, that wasn't Ben Chirot's fault. Like, Sider has played better away from Sharad. He's also just played better, right? And that is part of it. I feel a little bad for Sharot that that's happened. Also, like, Philip Peronix starts the year on this crazy heater that I think anyone who's familiar with what shooting percentages are supposed to look like for NHL defensemen and Adda's shooting, like, you know, it was never going to be a point per game defenseman the whole year.

And, of course, it times up with Sharad and moved on to his pair. But, you know, I asked Derek Colon earlier this week about, like, you know, give in what Mata and Heronik had done together, like, has he thought about putting those two back together, and he basically sits up along the lines like, yeah, but, you know, at that point, then, you know, it's really cutting into Sherrod who brings this element, this physical element that they don't have. And so, like, it's clear that they still want him on the ice. And I know that you look at almost any underlying number, at least the ones that we have publicly available. I know the coaches don't think our public numbers are always very good,

but obviously, like those tell a story, right? But they, still see him as bringing this element that they do not have. They're not wrong that they don't have it. They don't have anyone else who does what he does. But it's just a, it's just going to be a kind of an ideological thing, right, of how much should that outweigh the other stuff? It sounds like Well Alone was really saying they're trying to say to you was, I would love to do so. But unfortunately, Steve Eisenman paid this guy a lot of money and I don't think he would love him playing third pair of minutes. Hey, you know, if you, if that's the read-in, I'm not going to, you know, I don't know, but that's, you know, I'm just telling you what he said. So, so Ryan, I would,

would argue. I'm sure there's some timing involved in Sider, you know, isn't, shouldn't be completely blameless in this. Like, he's clearly played better himself. Just watching these games, though, I feel like the dynamic that Walman has brought to that pairing and we can shift over talking more to them now has helped make life a lot easier for him. Like, I think just playing with more skill has really opened up different avenues for him to not have to maybe do as much as he was early in the season. I know that he had better results with even like Danny DeKaiser last season, who is in a necessarily the most skilled player in his own right, especially at that point of his career. But I would argue that I know WOWEs are sometimes with or without your numbers are sometimes

tricky because, you know, they're so contextually based, like who you're playing with, might be differences in terms of quality of competition, where you're being used, what the gate score is, all that stuff. But I feel like the numbers are so jarring in this case, how Siders produced with Chirot at the start of the year. And then now with Walman, since pretty much the start of the new year, then I feel like there is something where, to this beyond just oh mo sider is just playing better it's it's a confluence of so many things i completely agree with what max said like cider was kind of not getting the blame he deserved at the start of the year he was playing poorly especially for a few games there uh his game got better i don't

think charot was the best fit for him in terms of uh the the stylistic um kind of messing together of those two guys jake walman once he came back from injury uh I believe there was shoulder surgery he had and then shook off the rest, which didn't take long for him. Once he made it up to that line and his game emerged, it was like all of those things came to amplify at the exact right time where, I mean, it's a good result for a cider. But in terms of evaluating, you know, what's charott's impact at the team. Like, I don't think this could have gone worse in terms of in that aspect in terms of evaluating how Chirot kind of fit in. But at the end of the day, yeah, I do believe, to my surprise, I'll admit, and I didn't think that Walman's. kind of puck transporting up the ice,

using his legs to generate offense, kind of to get back on defense. I didn't think that would be the kind of game that would be compatible with Sider, but it's worked out. Those two have really good chemistry. They move the puck amongst each other really well. They seem to have some kind of rea

as to where the other one's going to be on the ice a little bit more trust. With Sider, I saw that he struggled with the way kind of Schroatt. Shrott's kind of always engaging, always on style of play. I didn't think Snyder was able to really adapt to that, maybe the way the team they wanted him to. But that seems to be gone with

Walman. So honestly, a lot of credit to Jake Wallman. Max has written about him recently as well. The emergence of his game cannot be oversuited either. So it's, again, it's a confluence of a lot of things that went really right for this Walman cider pairing. And I'm not trying to gloss over the Sharaw thing either. Like I'm just trying to, I was just trying to bring up like it was a confluence of things it probably over dramatized it a little bit, but it's like, it is clear what Ryan's saying too, right?

It's like there is a chaos factor, a risk factor to bench dropping on the ice that, look, I'm sure that that's part of what the coaches, I'm sure the cause of the chaos factor is the thing the coach is like, which is the being on and being so aggressive and chasing everything down.

Walman has tamed the risk in his game, though, but he still has like these, he's got the size, he's got the, maybe not the pure strength or whatever, but certainly the skating that Sharraub brings plus some, right? Like, it's, you know, he does bring these elements that when you take derivisc out, like it makes it a really natural fit. I wasn't trying to gloss over that, but I was just trying to highlight that it was simultaneous, right? No, I think that's fair. Like, if you look, like, Sider played nearly 500 minutes so far, if I want to buy with

Chirot, they have, like, a 40% high-danger chance share and, like, 43% expected goals share. I don't, in an ideal world, like, regardless of who most Sider is playing with, like, it could literally be your eye. That should not be his numbers, right? So I think he's clearly like not blameless here in this. I think if he had played better, those results would have been at least a bit more. Now, I don't think they would have been what they are in the 300 or so minutes Siderers played with Walman because they're like through the roof. They're watching the game last night against the Oilers, for example, I think it was very, like, constructive to why I think a guy with Walman's skill set has allowed, um, allowed cider more freedom,

right? There was this play in the first period. They didn't even wind up scoring on the play. Um, but Walman goes back behind his own to retrieve a puck and there's a four checker coming at him. And instead of just panicking and either putting cider in a tough spot by passing the puck back to him and then sort of just like being like, all right, you take it. Or just firing it off the glass the way a less skilled defenseman would have done. So he ate the four. He ate the four checker threw a backhand pass on the tape to Michael Rasmussen up the ice and then that allowed Sider to basically sprint up the middle lane get a good scoring chance out of it and they didn't score on it but I think that was like the type of play where that's just something that wasn't really

in the range of outcomes for Moseider when you're playing with a guy like Ben Shrad he doesn't have the skill to be able to facilitate a play like that I think we think of most Iiders of highly skilled player and he is and he makes beautiful plays with the puck but I actually kind of like him playing with a partner who can handle some of that breakout ability himself because like what makes most either so special is his ability to cover huge you know huge regions of ice very quickly with that massive stride of his right and and so all of a sudden now playing with wallman on the first goal you see he's very aggressive he goes down the wall he keeps the puck in the zone and then they wind up scoring on it like stuff like that that allows him to play more freely

and not just feel like he has to do everything i think is a reason why his numbers have been so much better at playing with a different partner. I agree. I think you're spot on with all that. Like I was not trying to downplay the fit there. It has been, it's been real for sure. And I think, you know, essentially we were talking Ryan and I and our friend Prashon earlier today of like, who is Wallman like? Because like it's, he's going to be a free agent this summer. And he's obviously someone the Red Wings need to prioritize keeping, not just based on the fit with cider, but just based on the impact. Like, you know, one of the names that come up is like a Nick Jensen and obviously that's like a Detroit specific, probably, comparison.

But Prashant had another one that I thought was pretty interesting, as we were talking about all of this. And he was saying, you know, is it kind of a Matt Grizzlic, right? And I think that's, Walman has a lot more size than Matt Grisling. But I think that you start to piece together, like, what does this look like on winning teams? And I think that was a pretty interesting one. A 6-2 Grizzlik is a really interesting player.

Yeah, I mean, you see it, like time and time again. he's so slippery around the blue line as well, right? Like his ability to get the puck in these tight quarters and then basically like makes someone to miss and get it into a more advantageous position. They had that like two plus minute shift in the offensive zone in the second period. Last night against the Oilers

and there was a couple times there where they like pat the puck made its way to Walman and he's like kind of like in that coffin quarter up against the wall and it's like, all right, what are you going to do here? And instead he makes a smart play, gets it to open ice and then allows him to extend it. So he's playing, like, remarkably right. That's a great question that Maxis pose.

I have no idea what to do with a 27-year-old impending UFA who has 109 NHL games under his belt and like 20 of them at this level. You clearly don't want to get wildly carried away with it. But then you watch, I don't want me to be a watch the games guy, but then you watch the games and the skills themselves, like it doesn't really seem like he's fluking his way into it. I don't think it necessarily, it's risky to be like, all right, let's just project this for the next six years. But there's clearly a player in there. I don't think this is one of those random like PDO fuel things or a random like, oh,

remember when that guy just had 20 good games? Like I think this is like a legitimate, highly interesting NHL defense. Yeah, if you go back to when Steve Eisenman made the trade where Jake Wallman originally came over, Walman wasn't the centerpiece of that trade. It was the second round pick that they got back and then a Nick Letty deal. But Isman made a point in his press conference. And it actually might have been Max who asked the question now they think about it. But he made a point to say like they'd been Walton.

watching Wellman for a while, like back in his Tampa Bay Day. So he's aware of him as a player and he's seen the potential in him for some time. And then you also think about, you know, in a cap world, what makes a really competitive team? And it's really simple. You get great players for as low dollars as possible. And how do you lock up guys for low dollars is you sign them when you think that they're going to be even better later for as long as possible. You lock them in. That more mostly applies to when people are talking about, you know, EGMRFAs. We're going to be having those conversations about Bocider and Raymond did not too long now. But it's an opportunity here with Jake Wallman where you're like, yeah, you've known he could be a

good player for a while. You brought him out of St. Louis to give him a bigger opportunity on Detroit. And at the first sight of that opportunity, he's, you know, grabbed it by the horns to the two of playing on the first pairing with your future number one defenseman or current number one defenseman in both sider. So I'm sure there's a lot more that happens internally to evaluate those players. I don't know what the dollar value is going to be. I kind of threw it. a random thought about it for half a second get us out in our chat today that Max was talking about a four by four deal. But I wouldn't be surprised to see Detroit lock him in for a medium long term deal because they have to start making those kinds of high value moves if they

want to have a competitive team and a cap structure in the future. Yeah, Max, well, you think the runaway is your or like the level of commitment that they'd be interested in tying up, not only financially, but in terms of the depth chart, right, where you've got it hopefully an influx of young defensemen coming in over the next couple years and you don't really want to lock down spots. Now, beyond, I guess, Sharad's contract, which is pretty much unmovable at this point already and Mo Sider being there long term, there is a lot of space on the depth chart, on the defensive chart or minutes to dole out. So it's not like it would necessarily be particularly restrictive. But I think that has to play into it as well in terms of like, all right, do we want to

commit to this guy for a legitimate term beyond just, you know, like a one or two year kind of flyer as you go along. Well, that's kind of the thing. right, because that's the strength of their farm system. And, you know, obviously Edwinson's knocking on the door, but you also have, you know, a couple of, they used second-round picks on left shot D like every year, the surprise man's 10 years. So you've got Albert Johansen and William Valinder and Chibuyamil, and not all those guys are going to hit, obviously,

but it's an organizational position of strength. So if I'm Detroit, though, I would want to do exactly what Ryan's talking about and go for that three-to-four-year range because I think, you know, you're going to be completely comfortable there. and, you know, the age range here does not seem like you need to risk a huge fallback. I thought your point in a second view about the PDO bender thing, maybe you go look at like, well, what is his PDO? The C's the percentage has been high, right?

I think the same percentage is high, but the shooting percentage isn't unreasonable at all. Yeah, it's like 10, 10% shooting percentage in like 907, safe percentage. But what actually jumped out is that the PEDO was crazy low, like the last three years, and I just, I wonder if that influences availability at all. But if I'm Jake Wallman, it's an interesting position to be in because do you want to just sign something short, one or two, and try to get into free agency at age like 28 with a much more a firm track record and think what you could get at that point? Or are you a little bit nervous that in one or two years, all those left shot D that we just talked about are no longer just knocking on the door. And maybe you don't care if you change organizations or whatever. But it's a really interesting spot to be.

I think, you know, I think if you're Detroit, you're, you'd love that, you know, a three or four year range, but, you know, one or two is not bad for either of these sides. It just kind of depends how much do you want to kind of bet on yourself. He does strike me as a kind of person who would be willing to bet on himself. So I'm very curious to see how it shakes out. Yeah, it's cool that he hit the gritty and then hook off after that, right? Yes. I see if it's like, you know what'd have been very annoying. It was that one thing, then all of a sudden he's like back in the HL or just off. But this is what's crazy about that? He apparently. He apparently apparently hit the gritty previously. I think that was his second goal of the year. I think he did it on his first goal. I did just no one noticed. So when we all asked him about it, we were like, how long have you been planning this?

He was like, I did it before. Like, oh, really? The camera cut away. I tried, you had to like hyper zoom on it. There was a Twitter user who actually caught it, but it's like three frames and it's gone.

So he got out his moment this time. I would have loved it if he had hit it the first time, but it was so bad that no one could even tell or the stifer that it was the gritty. And then in the meantime, he had perfected it. And then so by the time he got an opportunity again, it was so good.

They're like, oh, yeah, that's the greedy. That makes a lot more sense. All right, fellas, let's take our break here. And then when we come back, we'll keep chatting about the Red Wings. Looking forward to that. So we'll be back in a minute here. You're listening to the HockeyPedio cast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. Your number one spot for Flames coverage can be found on Flames Talk with me, Pat Steinberg.

Exclusive interviews, trusted insiders, and the latest news. Listen live weekday afternoons and four or stream the Flames Talk podcast on demand. All right, we're back here on the Hockey Pedyogas with Max Bowman and Ryan and I, we're talking about the Red Wings. So let's kind of segue into a bigger picture topic that I want to discuss about the team's performance this year and sort of what to make of it. Because, Ryan, I think the last time I had you on, it was when the Red Wings had finally placed Jacob Brown on the way where he cleared.

And we were talking about him, but we were also talking about why there was kind of like a cruel irony involved in the fact that the Red Wings, as currently constructed, desperately are missing a player of his particular set of skills. And that has sort of continued in the week since where if you look at for the season at 5-on-5 in particular as an offense, they are 23rd in goals, 30th in high-danger chances, 30th and expected goals, 29th in shots off the rush. And if you look at their shot chart on the aforementioned hockey viz that Max brought up earlier, there's nothing in the middle of the ice, there's nothing around the net, there's nothing in the slots. It's anywhere you think of, all right, we need to get here to get a good,

look off and have a chance of scoring at 5-1-5, they simply have had no way of regular, with any regularity getting to there. And so I guess that was my question on like what we make of that because while the team itself has gotten better in terms of their winning more games than they did last year and in the past, I think that would be a concerning trend for me because, you know, you look at a team like, let's say the Buffalo Sabres who I think Red Wings are going to be compared to a lot over the next coming years as like sort of the next wave of the Atlantic division, right, and the teams that are on the way up and are going to try to unseat the already established teams there. The Sabres are clearly a flawed team this season, but one thing they have

going for them is they're showing sort of like the outline of a dominant offensive team, where they have these individual performances of guys who are just generating offensive results that the Red Wings haven't really had this season. And so I think that beyond the results or anything like that, I think the way they've gotten to them is a bit concerning for me moving forward. that they haven't really shown, at least as a team, that they have that in their range of outcomes right now. Yeah, let's not mince words here.

The Red Wings have a big, big, big, big talent issue. Within the grand scheme of, you know, how are the Red Wings going to make the playoffs, be in the playoffs consistently and eventually can compete for Stanley Cups? They have a glaring hole, which is unfortunately the most important thing

that an HL team in this era needs, which is elite, elite shooting talent, elite scoring talent, elite playmaking talent, the Red Wings don't have that. Their leading score right now is Dylan Larkin with what, 43 points. Looking at the Buffalo Sabres, Tage Thompson is 68,

Tuck has 55, Dahlene on defense is 55, Jeff Skinner has 50 and Dillian has has 43. Though I know they're going to be compared against Buffalo, but I just don't see how that's going to be, they're going to stay in that argument unless they find that scoring from within.

You look at games where the Red Wings lose, but they feel like they play well in last night against the Oilers is a good example. they felt like for long stretches they played well against a talented Oilers team. The sentiment coming out of the team was we're just not the kind of team that has a guy that can just fire it home. Yeah, not having Jacob Rodder really hurts the Red Wings right now, but I don't think just him solves it.

The Red Wings somehow, some way, have to find that elite scoring talent, and it's not just to get better now, it's to start building the foundation for a team that's going to compete in the playoffs. You want Connor Bedard? Yeah, that would solve it. There's a lot of other players in this draft that would solve it too. Going back to before the break, when you asked, you know, why does it feel bleak? Feels bleak because they feel like they're going to land out of range for those guys who might solve it in this upcoming draft.

So that's that's, that's Eisenman's biggest task. He has to, through, you know, throwing money an unrestricted agency, through a trivade, you know, finding some kind of reclamation project for another, from another team, which I don't think is likely he needs to find that high in talent. Because even the Red Wing's best players right now aren't producing anything like that. Yeah, Max. there's this right of passage in the NHL that we see where before teams that are like built organically from the ground up the way the Red Wings are trying to do here they go through these like checkpoints along the way right and there's typically a stage in there before they can become

really good and like legit a bit just annual playoff teams that are competing for a Stanley Cup they generally have a one or two year phase where they're really fun like they score a lot of goals they get into these shootout environments where it's like a track meet back and forth and you can see the flaws with a team where it's like, ah, they're so young and inexperienced, and maybe they need a bit more depth, but the young stars generate these offensive results where they're getting into these 5, 4, 6, 5, 7, 5 games.

And you see that, like, we saw that with the New Jersey Devils last year, and then the step they took this year. You're seeing that kind of with the Buffalo Sabres. That's typically a step along the way, the roadmap towards building a contender that you need to hit. And for whatever reason, it seems like the Red Wings, and you brought this up,

up in a recent article you wrote about how like there's been a level of commitment to like the defensive side of things under Derek Lolon and I think that was like a clear um a clear thing they wanted to address this year to be more structured and to be better defensively or more reliable defensively but unfortunately I think in doing so I wonder if they're limiting their offensive ceiling like like Ryan you're totally right that the talent is one thing but I think it's clear that they're trading off a bit of what they could be. offensively to kind of play a more reliable or a game that has more sort of like long-term habits. And I don't know if that's the right way to go about like building a team when you're

at the stage the Red Wings are at right now. Were the Devils that fun last year? Oh yeah. They were like they were losing a lot. But they had games where you'd watch and they're like, wow, this offense is incredible. If McKenzie Blackwood could make a save, they could do something. Because they scored 2.99 goals a game, but the Red Wings are at 2.98. Like, I don't, yeah, but John know, Jack Hughes missed. He was her of the year. Yeah, that's fair.

I don't know. Your point is right. I just, that one jumped out in my head. But your point is right. Like, Derek Colon comes from Tampa Bay. And the lore of Tampa Bay is that they were a super skilled, offensive team that had to learn to defend. And then when they did, they became like the best winning machine of basically since the 05-06 lockout, right?

And so Derek Colon comes into Detroit. And what is the lesson that he learned? Well, what really matters is the defending thing. And I think it's a very fair question to ask, can you skip the step? Can you skip the step where you're this run and gun team and you become the defensive winning machine? Can you go right to being the defensive winning machine? Obviously, the remedies are not a winning machine of any kind. But like, you know, assuming that they don't intend to go backward defensively as their young guys come in, like, can you still get to those overall heights?

I don't know the answer to that because I don't know who the comp is really. Like one of the teams that always jumps into my mind for like, what can a, what team that's really good looks like them? There's really two. And one people treat like it's a huge insult and one people like the hurricanes and the islanders, like it or not, like the islanders have come closer than the hurricanes after winning a Stanley Cup is currently constructed. But people hate that one.

So I guess we can avoid it or whenever. But like, you know, I don't know. The hurricanes are built as a team that. obviously the analytics love them but I think that's in large part because defensively they have one of the best blue lines in the league and have for some time and they have enough up front they have a lot of depth they have some they have a couple stars in ahio and in cessionikov that you know we can debate here how larkin and raven or whatever stack up to that um or will stack up to that but you know I think there's if the reddings are going to do to it I think

it's going to be by going that path in their mind more than it is by going the Sabres path which was previously the avalanche path, which was previously the lightning path. And that's a way sexier path. There's no doubt about that. Yeah. The other thing to consider, sorry, the other thing to consider is, uh, I think Jeff Blasch still had a big reputation because he said a lot, you know, he talked about defensive responsibility and managing the puck well. But if you look at the difference, like Derek Lalone is really leaning into this whole puck responsibility thing. If you want like a litmus test or a sample to kind of evaluate, look at Tyler Bertuzzi. Tyler Bertuzzi is not, you know, being given the freewheel, do it whenever you want out there,

be your little ball of chaos, generate scoring chances, crash the player. He's being asked to play a much more responsible game with the puck. And frankly, he's been struggling. On balance this year in the games he has played, I know robust and injury factors into that, but he struggled to fit into that system where he had a lot more robe, a lot more leeway with Jeff Blasho. Yeah, like I, and there's nothing wrong. with like building good habits for like this is the way we need to play and this is when we're going to be a good team what we're going to need to do you don't want to get you know go too far in

the other direction of like you know having some sort of playing style where it's like this doesn't really resemble meaningful at hl hockey or just sort of skating around there like it's a game of pickup but i think letting young players make mistakes and and kind of tapping into that if you're at the stage where there are now which is 22nd and point percentage is the first year really that you're at least thinking about potentially being competitive and caring about winning games, I think it's okay to kind of take those lumps along the way and fully embrace that sort of young unbridled enthusiasm of players coming in and just like showing those flashes. Now we've seen certainly, you know, last year and into this year as well,

some of the plays that Mo Cider or Lucas Raymond is capable of. But I do kind of wonder like at what cost or whether they've sacrificed potential ceiling in terms of like just trying to to play the right way right now. And I don't think it's necessarily, it's not mutually exclusive. Like it's you can kind of have both. But it's it's a thing to certainly consider like especially when you watch them because this team should I think be more like fun and energetic based on some of the players they have and where they're at in their organizational cycle.

And instead they're treating it as like a very serious sort of like fake it till you make it. All right, let's be. Let's play like a playoff team even though we aren't. Yeah, and I think part of that probably comes from the very top, right? Like, you know, Steve Viserman's career has that same narrative, even though, you know, when I asked Brennan Shanahan about that a few months ago, he was like, I think that's kind of a myth. I think Steve always pretty good a defense, but it's like it still has the same narrative, right,

of like you're flashy and you're fun and then you're serious and your defense. And, you know, I guess if you live that, it's very possible that you could come to the conclusion of, you know, once you understand defense, then you're good. Nothing else before that really matters. Like, I think that's a, Steve Eisenman has never said that to me or whatever, but like, would it surprise you if that's what, what's driving, like this kind of attitude? Yeah, not at all.

I mean, especially like the, what, the 2019-20 season or whatever. Not that anyone else like this illusion about like, oh, like, this is going to be a good team. But like, it was just so bad and so bleak. And there were times under Blasheil where I was like, this is really ugly. So I do understand that sort of pushing you towards like having a level of competence and respectability around the league. And it's what he pointed to. Like when he fired Blaschell, what he said or opted to not for new or whatever the

language was, like, he said, like, we need to prove our defense. Like it was the number one thing that he said. And, you know, he goes on. He talks about the power play and like that, you know, obviously that need to get better too. But like, you see in the way that he talked about, like, that was what really bugged him. It was the goals against. It was, you know, how many odd man rushes and, you know, of some of the biggest trades

that he's made like basically in goal. Like he's trying to get these now goalies because he's sick of giving up so many goals. And, you know, there's a really good conversation to be had over like, does Lucas Raymond's ceiling actually get lower playing like this or not? Like my feeling would actually be it does it. But I, because I don't think he stops trying like cool stuff or whatever.

Right. Like you see him at practice and obviously most of practice is the structured, whether it's power play or like, rushes or small area stuff for whatever. But at the end of the day, like, the point is you're learning how to make plays in, you know, in the hard situations where you can. But I would understand the argument that, like, if you don't let guys, quote unquote, like, play free, are you robbing them of something? And I think that's true at, like, age 12. But I'm just not sure it's true anymore at age, like, 20. Yeah. And I think also, I would imagine that part of the hope we're going forward

to sort of rectify some of that talent imbalance is they've made 40 picks in four years under C-Biseman, including 14 in the top two rounds. And so we've seen some of them already come and make an impact in the NHL, but I think there's probably hope that at least a couple of those will come and make a difference. And I really like what I've seen from Jonathan Berggrin's over this year. And there's certainly like young talent in place. But I don't know, Max, have you done any reporting or do you have any insight on like that recent news story about Yakubrana having played his last game with the Detroit Red Wings? Like, do you know anything about that? It's a tough one.

It's kind of a delicate thing, right? I have not had anyone tell me that they think Jake Cabrana has played his last game for the Red Wings. Leading into what you opened this segment with, right, is this big discrepancy between a Red Wings team that does not score enough goals and a guy who, in my opinion, can score with the ease of like a top 10 goal score in the NHL. Has never been a top 10 goals score in the NHL, but like just purely in terms of the scoring talent could find himself. in those names. And I think that that points toward, well, then what the heck is it, right? And I've had plenty of people ask me this

in the past month or so. It's a little, it's obviously very delicate. What I find interesting is when we asked Derek alone questions along these same lines of like, wouldn't it be nice to have a guy like Veronica in right now or how much do you miss his scoring

or, hey, have you noticed that he started to score? there's always this little bit of downplay from him that's like it's potential or you know he's scoring of late and and it there does seem to be this downplay element that makes me wonder if like I know we're not missing that what the talent is but like maybe they just feel I don't think it can be just that I don't think he's in the HL and just that alone obviously there's a um a broader issue or issues at play but um you know he is kind of a one-dimensional player and we talk about this identity that they're building. And, you know, I wonder if that's part of this as well, or I think that that's part of this as well. But, you know, on the big picture of the relationship, like, it just seems

to be a, I think that's probably where those reports and, you know, not talking about what's coming from is more on like the broader relationship here between player and club. And, you know, it would not shock me to see him in play for the Red Wings. Yen, like I said, no one's told me that he won't because we've seen guys, the ribbings have way, come back and play, but those were different relationship. The Ana Kaiser, Jonathan, those were different relationships decidedly than what's in play here. Now, if the revenue's traded three, four words and have two guys get hurt,

at some point, like, you have to go to Jacob Veronat. Like, he's the guy who makes sense. You're going to go to him before. You're going to go to some of those guys. But he's obviously lower off on the list than his talent would suggest, and that I think you have to conclude that there's something amiss and could that lead to him never playing again? Like, that wouldn't shock me either.

Yeah, I mean, it's not just you thinking that he's one of the best goals scores in the league, Max. Yeah, he's got 22 goals and 39 games with the Red Wings. Over the past, like, four years or whatever time Bruneiota used, literally only Austin Matthews scores 5-1-5 goals more frequently than Jacob Brenna does. Now being on the ice and putting it all together is certainly a different discussion. But I don't know, Ryan, it's, I'm very curious to see how this is handled. I don't think we're going to get any resolution between now and the deadline, but if it is true that they're considered either trading a market. buying them out this summer. I imagine there's going to be a lot of interest, especially if it's following a buyout and you can get him for incredibly cheap. But I don't know, it's such a bummer.

Like I just, I really want to just be watching I can run a score. And as I said, the Red Wings desperately need that, even if it is a one dimension. That one dimension is pretty much exactly what they need. Yeah, you're right. It is a bummer. Just to echo what Max said, it is complicated and I do struggle with that report. You hear a lot of the same things over time. Like that's not a new statement either in terms of what's been kind of mentioned around or even just reading between the lines. Like Iisman waived the guy who is this elite goal scorer.

So yeah, it's very possible that he doesn't ever play for the Red Wins again. I do struggle with the certainty of that statement that was put out. I necessarily agree that nothing will happen before the deadline. Like the deadline, if a team sees Jacob Verona playing real well in the H.L. and they say, hey, we're willing to, with everything going on in the background, any concerns you have with him that aren't explicitly stated publicly for people, we're willing to work with that, but we want to see how he does an NHL games,

bring him up, load and play for you a little bit, and then, you know, we'll see about a trade. I can see that playing out. Yeah, maybe it does end up in a bio. He could go over to Europe. We've seen that with players like Taxier out of Columbus before. I think this is not just complicated and delicate. I think it's fluid.

I think it's changing over time. I think all the only things that you can say for certain is based on, you know, the actions of Isamon and what Lillone has stated, which Max brought it up, where there's a disparity between what the fan base feels about Verona and what this team seems to understand and know, which is much different. So there's a lot of shrouded and mystery here. So it's really just to see how this plays out and when. And I couldn't even give you a concrete timeline.

I think it's just moving. Yeah. I'll say this. I don't think a trade happens here because of the extra year left. No one's taking on money into next year. Where are the teams that will be interested just aren't going to do so, I don't think. So to me, like, I think if I had to guess how this ends, I do think it ends buyout. But I haven't had someone tell me that.

So that's just like the difference in like, you know, the report that was out this week. Like that's what I think will happen to. But I couldn't report that today. You know what I mean? Yep. And if that. You don't think Detroit would retain money? I mean, how much are you going to retain?

that like at some point like you're going to retain two and a half plus million and like at that point like you're better off buying it out you know what i mean like whatever the return is like i don't think you're going to get what people hope you're going to get on that and so the buyout is cheap like it's not painful at all and that's what i think that's what i think will happen but i don't i don't know what will happen yeah the buyout is 1.4 next year and then 1.9 the year after um yeah yeah it's and and you're right like i think there'd be a lot of teams that are there would be interested at 50% for the rest of this season to take a shot on it. I don't think tying up 2.75 or whatever would be for next year. If the Red Wings would even retain on both, that's if the

revenues retain on both. If they're only retaining on one, which is not uncommon, then you're getting five. Like, that's even harder to do. Yeah. Okay, we got four or five minutes here, and we haven't really talked about Dylan Larkin yet, which I think might be disappointing to a lot of listeners, but I think you can probably get a lot of Dill-Larkin conversations or speculation on a lot of other shows. But Max, while I got you here, what's the latest? And does the recent Boehourback contract we saw help nudge it in either direction at a faster rate than it would have otherwise?

That's the tricky part, right? Is what's the latest? From what I understand, there is no latest. And I think that that's where we're added in this is like, I think the Bo Horvett contract should like none of it should set a very clear floor because Dylan Larkin's a better player with a better resume than Boat War. If it were in a hard case, that's obviously the case. Like it's that it should. But you're dealing with willpower here and the willpower that C.D. Weizerman has shown in the past like makes it hard to like it. I would be really frustrated, I think,

if I was Dylan Larkin by this because all the things that are supposed to matter have gone my way. and yet it doesn't seem like that's mattering. And, you know, I don't know how Red Wings fans feel about this. I think that they're pretty deferential to whatever Steve Iserman does. But I don't think that Red Wings can afford to do this with Dylan Larkin. I don't know how on earth you replace Dylan Larkin. If you're, you know, the difference of what I understand to be, you know, less than a million dollars here. Like, I'm sorry, you're not finding Dylan Larkin at the number that you want anywhere.

And I don't know how you can justify losing him over that amount of money. I, you know, wherever it comes in is wherever it comes it in. I don't know how to handicap it at this point. Well, what's more? It should be, seems like it should be close to $9 million. But like wherever it is, like, whatever the number is, it's better than having to go find another number one center to me. That's how I look at it.

Yeah, I was going to ask you, what's more likely, 8.71 million per or eight years, 71 million, which comes out to like 8.875, I feel like, I don't know, that point, that seven, that point seven, that I'm purely just pulling out a number randomly. I don't know where has no, no significance, of course. I don't know, like I, I, I, I'm with you on that. I also don't know how you can statistically justify paying more than nine million per. Yeah. That's, if that's the difference. Yeah, but I like, I don't think you would need to go over nine million. I don't even think you'd necessarily need to get, like at some point, there is some compromise that happens, right? But, it's just like it's what it seems like is that there's a line in the sand lower than that

so it's what it seems like and I don't think I'd be willing to hold that line over a difference of however many hundreds of thousand you know it is okay all right well uh we got to get out of here so I'll let you plug some stuff on the way out right I'll let you go first and then max you follow up after that let the listeners know um where they can check out your work yeah definitely uh so on the winged we deal podcast wherever you get your podcast. Go to winged wheelpodcast.com. We're on YouTube,

Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Pods, etc. At Winged WheelPod on Twitter. And you can find me at at Ryan Hinnett WUP on Twitter as well. And I would strongly encourage people to check that stuff out. Those guys do an unbelievable job.

They're as good as it gets for Red Wrigues fans out there. I'm at The Athletic.com. We would love to have everybody on board if you want to subscribe. and you can find me on Twitter at M underscore Bolbin. All right, fellas, so this is a blast. Thank you for taking the time to come chat.

We'll certainly have your bullet back on down the road. And thank you to all the listeners for listening to the HockeyPedocast streaming on the SportsNab Radio Network.