The Hockey PDOcast - Defensive Environments are Voodoo

Episode Date: December 13, 2023

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Kevin Woodley to talk about Merzlikins’ improvement, Georgiev’s struggles, the future of goalie workloads, and why the Devils have struggled to suppress goals this season. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name's Dimitra Filippovich, and joining me is my good buddy, Kevin Woodley. Kevin, what's going on in? I'm surprised you called me your good buddy. I left you hanging a little late arriving today. My apologies, but I'm here and I'm ready to riff on goaltending for the next hour or so. Yes, for next 50 minutes. Don't worry, you will always be my good buddy, no matter what. You are also our director of our department of goaltending excellence here, the PDOCast. So that will never change, although I do have to say we have been bumped here to the B studio

at the Sportsnet offices because apparently Matt Tompkins is slightly higher on the pecking order than yours truly. And I'm not even offended because, listen, he does have an NHL win in his bag. And we know this is a what have you done for me lately league. So it's okay. I apologize, Dimitri, but yes. Let's just say that me and Matt may have set a record for the longest feature interview in In-Gole. radio podcast history, which is why I was a little late getting here, but I wouldn't trade it with all due respect for the world because what a great story.

And, you know, it's funny because I'm sure some of the names we're going to get into today, you know, late bloomers. We've talked in the past about, you know, guys like Connor Ingram who were on waivers and now, you know, one of the best, say, percentage in the NHL over the calendar year 20203. And how does that happen? And, you know, Matt's got a story where the different elements he's picked up along the way, including with a couple of guys that I work with in the summers up in Colonna, like just, you know, sometimes it just takes a while.

Like every situation is different. There are guys like Jacob Markstrom who took a while because it took a while for him to be ready to listen to a different message. You know, when you're the quote-unquote best goalie in the world, not in the NHL for all those years, you might be a little more resistant to change. And Jacob's a great example. I remember he got here to Vancouver, Malanson and asked him to play a little deeper and started to see some results but his first response

I remember him admitting this to me at the end of that season being like yeah I fully I get it now but his first response was hey you trade it for me why are you trying to change me and so everybody sort of it's like when the student is ready the teacher will appear kind of thing right Matt's a guy who you know goes to Sweden foralanda fardiestad a couple of organizations with really good goal-tending coach fariestad in particular as a guy that we've known for years a guy who I think might have been on the short list to get the Canucks development job here if he'd been willing to come over um spend some time there simplify some things spend some time with a friend of ours lyell mass uh and james wenland an osteopath up in colonna who changes the way his body

moves and the way his body works like just so there are so many different little there are different ways to sort of figure this position out and everybody comes to it at different times and matt had so many of those background stories. So yeah, we riffed for an hour and 15 minutes about his path to hear and it was fascinating. Well, I'm curious about the relationship. Obviously, he wouldn't necessarily classify him as the backup for Vasilevsky, right? Because the reason he was the backup to start the season was because Vascollevsky was unavailable after his off-season surgery, right?

And he's, I think Vaselovsky is kind of like such a unique case because he's such an anomaly in so many ways. talked about on this show, right, from like a goalie who was actually a first round pick that panned out to one who gets paid such a high percentage of the cap and it makes total sense to his ability to just chew up this high volume of starts and not really break down, although I guess he did have this back surgery, but like for years it was everyone would always try to take lessons from like, well, the lightning keep winning the cups, so what are they doing right? And then there's no real lesson to ultimately be learned there because it's almost like the exception that actually further reinforces the rule. But I'm very curious about the relationship between

the tundoms in organizations or like the goalie pool itself in terms of the interactions and and sort of practice times and I guess like everything that's going on when you're not at the rink on game day right like in terms of preparation and everything like that how what was that sort of relationship like for those goalies in terms of like is there any collaboration or anything or is it like you're kind of working with the goalie coach and and you're sort of working on your own thing and it's not necessarily you don't it's not a lot of you don't it's not all hands on deck in terms of being involved in whatever your goalie stable partner is doing on a day-to-day basis.

Yeah, it's funny because I think it varies not just from goalie to goalie. There are some guys who, I won't name names, but there are some guys in the league or been in the league for a long time that have almost no relationship with their partner. You know, and the irony is every once in a while I'll hear somebody say, oh, they need to get him and he'd be a good mentor and I just kind of, you know, because it's like, well, maybe you should find out if he actually says one word to the guy he's playing. playing with, right? Like some guys, hey, this is, it's pro sports, man, it's a cut throw. It's a competition. Yeah, and, and it doesn't mean, like, some guys just aren't cut out

that way. It's not like they're, like, trying to sabotage the other guy, but, hey, like, they're taking care of their business. They're not here to help you take care of yours. There are guys like that, and there are other guys where it's, like, just an open collaboration. It's funny, Matt, we didn't get into sort of what the relationship is with him and Johansen and Vasilecki, but he did talk quite glowingly about watching Vasi as he came back from the back surgery and the detail and the work that he put in and how in an era where I think a lot of the quote unquote Instagram coaches or the YouTube coaches on the goalie side and this isn't fair because there's some excellent ones but we tend to sort of be mesmerized by the fancy

drills and you know multiple shooters and goalies flying all over the place I think young kids can be mesmerized by that it's the simple basic you know the crease movement patterns the precision of them dialing in the detail so you never miss your spot when you're pushing from here to there those are the things that sort of unite the best of the best whether it's carry price years ago telling me like yeah kids hate it there's no pucks there's no shots but this is the foundation of my game or andre vasseleski so he learned from him but it actually was last year with fariestad where he talked about the relationship he had with um the young goalie there and now i'm gonna like an hour later after he told me like is it hildobey or he i think he's drafted anyways

the three of them all work together. And they're all bouncing off each other. And sometimes, and I have some people that think this happened to Cal Peterson a little bit in L.A. Sometimes you can watch a guy on a day-in, day-out basis and pick up tendencies and habits that may not be best suited to your game. And there are some people that believe that that happened a little bit with Cal and Jonathan Quick in Los Angeles. So I think these relationships are unique on a team-by-team basis. And goalie coaches have to, that's part of being a good goalie coach. Like you're part-time psychologist.

You also have to recognize that what, not just what the mix is between you and each individual goalie, but do you have sort of a group of three that can feed off each other? Or are you, you know, would you be doing a disservice by bringing the other guy into the video session with one guy? or can you all sort of work through those thoughts together and all get better for it? I think it depends a lot on each guy in each situation. And I think that's why, interestingly enough, the goalie coach he talked about with Sweden is Machet Schvull. They just call him Maskin because that's a tough, tough one to say. But he talks about getting to know the goal is on a personal level.

And there are other goalie coaches, former Toronto Maple Leaf coach, Steve Breyer, now with the Seattle Cracken. I know one of the first things he does is he had a guy. who was in human resources help him build out a personality test not because he's looking to like assess his goal tenors or judge them for the personality but because he's done the test himself and he wants to see how they think

how they process criticism positively negatively how they learn every some people are visual learners some people learn through through reading there are different ways to learn so he wants to see what they are as people and how it relates to his strengths and weaknesses so that he can tailor his approach to the individual person,

not just the individual goaltender in terms of how they play, but how they think, how they learn, how they process information. So, yeah, that was, there's a lot to it. There is no, much like the position itself, there is no one right answer to it,

but it's fascinating to me all the different approaches we see that, man, some of them have success and some of them don't. Well, this is certainly an episode of the PDO guest with Kevin Woodley, because we just did, I don't know, five minutes, how many minutes in showing Matt Tompkins

and relationships between goalies and their coaches and their hand partners. Some people, this is them on Red Bull. This is me after an hour and 50 minute conversation with a goalie that I learned from. This is exactly what I'm looking for, and I think what the listeners are as well,

you know, last time I was telling you about this discord server that we started and we referenced it last time and it was just blowing up after your most reason performance here on the show where everyone was loving it. The people were clamoring, just begging, fiending for more Kevin Woodley. And so I had to deliver and bring them on because the one simple rule we follow here on the PDO cast

is we give the people what they want and especially the people in Discord community who are supporting the show and kind of interacting with us on a daily basis. If they want something, they get it. They want it more Kevin Woodley, so we're having you on. We got a bunch of questions. We got like a variety of topics.

I think it was a good grab bag in sampling because we can kind of bounce around and touch on different concepts and maybe use some of these like, specific examples to provide like launching pads for us to just kind of talk more big picture game theory stuff so here's a question for you from a bluejackets fan who asks last year you mentioned that reclaiming elvis merzilikinson's game might be a multi-year project this year his goal save above expected has improved and most notably it is above expected on

the pk where he was dead last last year according to money puck have you noticed anything that's changed in his game that suggests he's actually finally on track, is Columbus Blue Jackets' defensive zone structure change, making the environment in front of him more predictable? What are you seeing in terms of Ms. Likens? Because I think the past couple of years, it's been a bit of, I don't even know how to characterize it. Obviously, the potential is there, right?

We saw when he first came into the NHL. Tons of talent. Tons of talent, tons of ability. And I got off to a great start. Now last year, much like everything in front of him, it went really south, right? His safe percentage dipped him completely went into the tank. I believe, like, sport logic got about like minus 27 goals they would probably expect it. And I don't even know, like, when the defensive environment gets as bleak as it was last year in Columbus,

it's almost you got to throw that out the window because we're trying to separate it out and provide that context and sort of try to, you know. It's the John Gibson conversation, right? Yeah. Like there's a psychological accumulation where after so many backdoor plays and not trusting your defenseman in front of you and everything. Exactly. It's not in a vacuum anymore, right? Because now all of a sudden your safe selection is being impacted by what your defenders are doing and vice versa. And it becomes a whole mess.

So what do we do with that? Because I think on the one hand, there's still a lot of alarming team-wide trends. On the other hand, Merslaken himself has performed quite well, especially compared to last year. do you see stuff that provides reasons for encouragement? Because while he has, he's still relatively new in terms of NHL terms, I think he's like turning 30 this spring as well. So it's not necessarily like this is a young goal you're speaking about. But at the same time, I think he hasn't been in our lives for that long.

So we still sort of treat him as like this young guy with unlimited future potential. Yeah. And I feel like from a homework perspective, I should I should have asked you for the list last night. Not that frankly, since I've been up. since five anyways. I would have had a ton of time to sort of root through it. I mean, the numbers are going to jump off the page right away statistically. The environment isn't that much better.

Like, they're still, you know, 28th in the NHL and five-on-five high danger, expected goals against 30th in the D zone, a little better off the rush, mid-pack, but they're giving up a ton of stuff when they're in their own end, 22nd on the P-K. But you're right, he's gone from, you know, significant negative relative to that environment. And as I've said, and as you so eloquently stated why,

like bad environments can have a cumulative effect on goaltenders. We talked about the John Gibson thing. Like, I wanted to see him behind a better team. And I think we've seen a little bit of that this year, how good he can still be. So I guess what I'm saying in terms of cumulative effects, if the environment continues to be what it is to this point, how much longer can he keep this up?

But so far, he's a full point. above expected on save percentage 1% above expected and again tough to do behind that team you know where I look at his chart last year and it's just a whole bunch of red you know to the point where it's hard to find a category where he was above expected when you break down the different types of chances he is on most of them now so you know slot line plays rebounds breakaways deflections um the easy goals a clear sighted like he's been really good there only one one against on 190 chances. Like that's one of the lowest totals in the league for a starter.

So I have not watched enough video. This is, this is, I do, you know me, Demetri. I don't like to blow smoke. Yeah. I will confess that my watchings of the Columbus Blue Jackets have been mostly Jet Greaves because we spent some time with him in Montreal this summer and got to know him a little bit. And so when he started to get some starts, I was, I wanted to see.

But you got a new voice there. Yeah. And I think this may be more between the ears. There's a lot going on there. right like he lost a friend and there's a strong relationship with a goalie coach manny legacy who was there before like there's there was a lot of dynamics there that would have been really tough and i'm not blaming anyone in any way shape or form but it just feels like there was a lot of baggage there that would have been really tough to overcome and i think

elvis is a guy who puts a lot of pressure on himself i know how much he wants to succeed and how hard he works at it and i would imagine the pressure he put on even after that happened right like on the mask and I want to win a Vesna for my friend and that's a lot to add you know and that's a lot to process and so you know I haven't looked at enough film to tell you technically what's changed if I know Nicholas Baxter it's probably a little quieter his game you know just on some of the conversations we had with with Baxter when he took the job as the goalie coach there what he might look to change but I feel like this is almost like a homework project for next time I'm on to go figure out the eye test and see how it matches the numbers because the the the

questioner is right. There are a lot of positives and things headed in the right direction this year compared to last. No, there are certainly, and listen, it's still 19 games worth, so you don't want it to make any, even if you had watched all 19 games, you don't necessarily want to make any widespread, like, all right, this is totally different, right? I'm all about small sample hyperbole here. Yeah, well, here's the reason why I picked this question, though, because I just wanted to, I think Columbus illustrates an important point here. here I want to value it in goalies because if you look at their team profile with the data that I have from support logic, they are dreadful.

And, you know, you don't necessarily need advanced analytics to point that out. But the reason why I say that is offensively, they're 30th in the league out of 32 teams in offensive zone time with the puck. And then defensively, they're 29th in terms of how much they give up, which is what third to fourth last. Yeah. And so in terms of that accumulation, the reason why I bring that up in this case

is regardless of whatever chances you're giving up and whatnot, like if you never have the puck in the offensive zone and you're constantly just stuck in your own zone, even if you're doing a good job defending and I don't think they are necessarily. D zone, they're like high danger chances against in the D zone, their 30th via clear sight.

But even if they were, let's say they were doing a really good job, and you're like, all right, you're maddened up really well, we change a defensive zone. structure. We're doing a better job of clearing out the slot. Like, we're more reliable in the back door. If you're in your own end all night, it's exhausting. There's going to be breakdowns. There can be miscommunications. Eventually, there's going to be cracks in the armor. And so in this case, you never have the puck in the offense zone. You're always stuck in your own zone. It also, I imagine, must suck for the goalie because I know we talk about how some goalies prefer

to, like, constantly be tested and be like engaged. And it can be tricky if you get into the opposite at extreme environment where you're not seeing the puck at all and then you have to make a high danger chance. Yeah, they don't have to worry about that there. But in this case, like, if the puck is constantly a second away from being shot towards you, you're almost like, there must be like a, not only a physical toll in terms of like getting up and down constantly

and having to constantly be engaged physically, but also mentally like you're just, you're fighting through screens, you're constantly having a battle. And that can't be easy either, right? Physically. And we've seen, you know, like we've seen, you know, where they, there's a reason they had to call up Jetgreaves,

and there's a reason he got into those games, right? Like, we've seen that physical toll already. I think it's a mental toll, too. Like, I don't have the offensive numbers for them quite as bad. Five on five, at least, they're 24th and expected high danger chances that they create expected goals off that. But we talked about, again, like, I feel like there's comparatives to Gibson and this one. Like, one of the toughest parts about his past few years in Anaheim isn't just the number

of chances he sees, but it's the fact that they rarely score for him. So you go into the game with the pressure of knowing that one or two is probably one or two too many to give up. And that can really, really drain on a goalie. But in terms of the up and down of being that in your defensive zone, I'll just throw a number out for you. God, I hope I have this right now. It's been a while since I've referenced it. I think it was a study.

I think it was Bauer that commissioned the study. But essentially, every time you drop into the butterfly, it is like doing an Olympic clean and jerk at three times. your body weight. That's the amount of force applied to the knees and the hips. So you think about how much work it is. Forget about fighting around screens and traffic. Every time you drop, slam into a post in the butterfly, like the amount of stress on the body is just massive.

And as you mentioned, Elvis is not a young goaltender anymore. So you hope through this process, I've always thought he was a guy that takes care of himself, but that's going to be increasingly important as he gets on this side of 30 to maintain the workload behind a team like this. Okay. here's a question for you from Dave says and this is directly to trustee is it starts off with Kevin dot dot last year you were the first person I heard mentioned that Eunice Corpusallo speaking of Blue Jackets goalies here was playing a lot better post-surgery are there any goalies this year that

have caught your eye that have either maybe had a slow start or a coming off an injury the your eye test or the clear site analytics numbers are high on that the rest of us haven't necessarily caught up to yet now while I give you a chance to think about this. Last time I had you on, we did a victory lap on Connor Ingram, right? And I actually had a coyote's beat reporter, Craig Morgan on after, and then he told me about the collaboration you guys did, where you helped him out with a story on Connor and Grum, and we talked about that. I tried Kevin to poke and prod on Corey Schwab and see if Craig's been able to get through that cloak and dagger operation they have going on. And he said also, he was saying that sometimes, like, if you

if you phrase stuff carefully enough around Corey and like you you hit on something that he can't disagree with or shut down he'll like actually give you a little bit but he'll never offer up any actual actionable information on his own but at the same time before I should mention here we forgot to talk about Charlie Lingren when we were back patting ourselves right who now up to 10 games the season 935 say a percentage plus 11 goals you know I expected he's been phenomenal and you know the capitol's goaltending has been a big reason why despite all their

scoring struggles they've been managing to sort of exceed expectations early in the year so i want to use this opportunity to quickly give charlie langren a little bit of love because we forgot to do so last time but are there any goalies that have caught your eye that it maybe it's not anything even in the performance yet but it's just someone you're curious about i guess maybe and part of this might be a team element as well but it's like i guess demko could classify for this now it isn't necessarily like I think people are aware based on the start of the season yeah I think he was the quarter pole goalie a choice

here's this niche guy that you haven't paid attention to yet so he doesn't classify from that but he was one who along with the team struggles was battling physically himself last year right and clearly is much healthier this year is there anyone that either could be on that track or as someone to watch that maybe

you know just as fans from home we're not really privy to whatever that like health situation is that to be explaining whatever performance has been happening? Yeah, I don't know how much from a health perspective, but in terms of guys who, and here's the thing, like, who's flying under the radar,

I don't even know what the raw numbers are, right? So I might be citing a guy that's got like a 940, but I don't even look anymore. Yeah. Like, so a couple of names that, you know, jump out a little bit. My hunch is he's probably got really good raw numbers as well, but like Alex Nadelcovic when he's been in for Pittsburgh

has been really good. Alex Lyon, I think we're seeing him get more. starts. He's been really good and he's a guy who's sort of been in this, you know, when you look at the underlying numbers, have been good before. You know, Magnus Helberg actually, but it's only two starts, so it's really small. I don't know that people, and this is one more on the negative side, because they're going to be without him for a while. I don't know that people really appreciated how good Joseph Wall had been for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Not just taking over the number one job. Two times ago, but yeah. Yeah, like top 10, like top 10 adjusted say percentage. So, and behind a team that

isn't as stout defensively as they had been in recent years and their goaltending benefited from it. So out of all those names, I'll pull one for you that I like because I'm, you know, they're actually in town here this week and I'm kind of curious to find out when they get here sort of because they have an incredible young goalie in the miners who's a big part of their future plans in Spencer Knight. That's Anthony Stollers who has quietly posted, you know, an adjusted say percentage that's plus 2.3% which, you know, frankly, is better than Allmark, Swayman, Binnington, Demko, some of the names that we've talked about as being at the top of the league. And, hey, listen, tie, it's way smaller sample,

and it's easier to do in a smaller sample, right? It's hard to maintain it. But there's a guy that I liked in Anaheim, again, nobody could tell, but I think there's a goalie there. Well, we talked about how he had actually been outperforming in, I guess, relatively the same environment. right but nobody sees it because the raw numbers right so um adjusted say percentage wise and the guy who's had different voices over the years and and sort of seems to be putting things together and i just think he has a really solid foundation to his game when i watch him play and some upside athletically too so

like you know there's a guy i mentioned lankan in last time statistically a drop off there since we last talked but to be honest with you still a guy that you know if they're not going to resign him in Nashville and UC's obviously who they want to resign long term. He could pry free as a UFA next summer. So whether it's in the summer or a guy you're targeting at the trade deadline, should Nashville fall out of it, like, you know, that's another name for sure. But the one that jumps out of all those, like Nadelkovich, because he was in the American Hockey League just last year.

And especially if you need a team or if you have a team that could use some help moving pucks. Scoring goals. Yeah, I mean, yeah, Ned can chuck it with the best of them. But you put him in the right, because I think what him and Jari have both done very well this year in Pittsburgh is just make the simple plays. As much as, you know, the Mike Smith passes get attention. People forgot that Mike got out of his net and just stopped at a whole bunch too more than other goalies. And Ned and Tristan are both really good at just getting out and setting it up or making a short, quick pass to lead to a transition. So, you know, Nadelcovic and Stolers to me are the two that really jump off.

Interestingly enough, Ivan Prasvatov's had good adjusted numbers, but that's a tough team to read right now. Well, let's save the Prasvata one, because I have a question about Yorgyev, and we're going to talk about him more after the break. Just on the note of Unstolars, I know that the numbers you cited are already adjusted and are accounting for this,

but I think people aren't, haven't fully caught up to, like, how impressive this Panthers team has been this season, especially with having Montour and Ekbad out for the first 15 games whatever, Sam Bennett was out for a chunk of it. And I know I've spoken about this on show a bunch because we did a full Sasha Barkov episode

and kind of highlighting what he's doing defensively. But they're such a unique team because they defend so aggressively and like particularly in their offensive zone. Like they like defend downhill like right before you can get moving that they just never really, they'll give up their chances, especially off the rush and that can be tricky. But like you look and the puck is never in their own zone. zone because they're constantly pursuing it so aggressively that it's always moving into other

direction. So that's going to lead sometimes to counter chances and that can be tricky. And so credit to both Stolars and Bobrovsky for actually holding up this season in that regard. But it's such a unique, it's almost like, it's such an extreme, I guess it's a bit of a comp to what Carolina does in a way. But they're not really talked about it that way, right? We never really think about the Panthers in that capacity. But that's actually what they've been this year. So it's interesting to hear you, you, you, mentioned Stolars because of that. And the rush is, it's interesting that you mentioned the rush because, you know, I got

them 26 in high danger, expected goals against off the rush. And you hear me reference high danger a lot because I think those are the ones that matter. Like rush chances don't matter if it's a shot off the wing, the goalie stopped 99.9% of the time. Well, let's take that for the devil's part of this conversation because I have a few points on that when we get to, when we get to the devil. So 26 off the rush and their goaltending is holding up the way it is. and here's an interesting one for you.

So I would normally, I would look at that and I'd be like, yeah, so if I was a team that was giving up a ton of rush chances and I was really worried about this and I look and I see that Anthony Stollers has these numbers and he's facing these rush chances and now I filter for rush and it's like, yeah, he's been really good against the rush just here and the great ace he does see. And I'm like, hmm, could he pry loose and the Edmonton Oilers?

And you know, you start to put those things together but then you look at the oilers since the coaching change from 30th in, rush chances against to third in rush chances against. So it's so funny because we hear a lot that goaltending is unpredictable. And I think really, obviously there's an element of truth to that. And I don't pretend to be a soothsayer because, you know, I could backpad all I want on Connor Ingram or Jonas Corpusallo.

The reality is it came from the numbers. It's not like I'm seeing some magic, you know, formula in how they play. The numbers sort of are what leads you in. direction of sort of what to look for. And so a guy like Stollers, if you had gone out a month ago and gotten him from Florida and said he's going to fix our thing, everything we do off the rush. And now all of a sudden a month later, you're Abington. You've gone from one of the worst teams against the rush to one of the best.

It's like your needs change. Environment's change constantly on goaltending. So I don't know so much that goaltending is unpredictable in voodoo as the environments these guys have to play behind is so dynamic and ever changing. And sometimes you can have a guy behind the same team go from playing to his biggest weakness and for Skinner, his strength is not the rush to now a month later, they're playing more in zone and that's where he's really good. And if that can change that much with a coaching move in season, no wonder we have, you know,

wild fluctuations from year to year. We need to start selling T-shirts to say defensive environments or voodoo. See? We're going to start something new here. We're going to start a dialogue here on the video cast. There's probably too many syllables in that to really catch on. It doesn't really roll off the time. We'll figure something out.

We'll work on it. I will get a good acronym going. Kevin, let's take our break here. And then when we come back, we will pick right back up and get into a variety of other topics. You're listening to the Hockey P.D.O. cast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network.

Catch up on what happened in Vancouver Sports with Halford & Brough in the morning. Be sure to subscribe and download the show on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. We are back here on the HockeyPedio cast with Kevin Woodley. Kevin, we hinted before we went on the break about a couple topics. that I want to get into here with you.

So Jay Pierce asks, can you please talk about the curious case of Alexander Girogib? I've seen some debates recently on if it's the abs defensive play or his performance that's causing these bumps in the road. Now, obviously, as we record this here on a Tuesday afternoon, last night, he got pulled after two periods

where he gave up five goals against, on 22 shots against the flames. Prossodov comes in, close the door, they wind up coming back, and winning that game. I think what's alarming to me about your give here is the usage. And I think we've spoken about this on this show in the past, but this is a goalie who, if you go back and look at his player page for years,

even before going to the New York Rangers, was essentially capped at like 25 to 35 games played throughout his career. And then all of a sudden he comes to Colorado last year. He has to play the 62 games in the regular season, and then another seven or whatever it was. was in the playoffs in that round one series against the Cracken. And so far this year, he started 22 games out of their 28, which puts him on pace for 64 starts,

which today's game is egregiously high. How much of it do you think you put on that in terms of just fatigue and too much usage and maybe them starting off the year, right? They lose Fransuze. He's not an option anymore. They pick up Prosva Tav. They're kind of starting to feel that out. And I'm sure that if this keeps up, they'll give him a longer look.

but they clearly wanted to ride Giorgiab because they felt more comfortable with that. How much do you put on that and how much of it is actually your Giorgiab just struggling? Or is it some sort of team effect? Because you alluded to this before the break, but their defensive numbers are all over the place. Depending on which way you choose to look at it at,

I can paint you a picture where it's like, this team is really, really good defensively, or, okay, they can be exploited in a few ways. So how do you sort of parse this situation? I mean, they're flirting with the top 10 in every category I have defensively. third on the penalty kill. Again, when it comes to the most dangerous chances. I have them at 29th

in inner slot shots against with only the Blackhawks, the sharks, and the Islanders worse than them. It's interesting because I think there are a lot of places that we'll call every slot shot a dangerous chance, and there are some if you have time to dust it off that are actually low danger

if the goalie can set on it. Now, interestingly enough, I'm not, I guess that would make sense for Giorgiab, if there's one thing, it's like pure reaction. Like if I was going after him, I'd go after his hands low. Just the way he sets up and sort of his setup on shots and stuff. Like there's a little bit of, not even a hitch isn't the right word. I think he's a really good goalie.

I think he's a number one goalie. And I think that he was a guy I was talking about as an early season, Vezna candidate. And so when I see how much they played him and I see all those things that I like start to fall off. and I don't see a team falling apart defensively overall. I'm sure there's always going to be moments in games, and maybe he's getting more of those moments than Prasvatov is at this point. But, like, I don't want to just blame it strictly on workload.

I don't want to be, you know, ignorant to other possibilities. But, man, like, they just played the wheels off him. That was kind of, we talked about this last time. Like, he was on a real heater to start the year, and I'm like, are they ever going to give him a night off? And I'd say I'm looking at the same thing in Edmonton. Like, they finally gave Stewart's skis. or a night off. I think he'd started six straight. And listen, like, I realize if you're the

Oilers, you just need to get back in this race. But at some point, you want to have something left at the end of it. And given how high Giorgyev's numbers were last year and that it was the first time in his career, and I thought he was really good for them last year. And he started great this year. It just feels to me like they didn't go to Plan B earlier often enough. And maybe there's a little fatigue that, you know, haven't talked to him in terms of, is there anything bugging him? But, man, the game's never been harder, and he was at a huge, huge minutes, and games played pace early. I'm with you.

I think he's a good goalie, and they've done him a bit of a disservice by just leaning on him too hard, even dating back to last year. Did ClearSight have him in terms of adjusted numbers as amongst the elite? Because I know the public models had him really high. Like he was up near... Last season, you mean? Yeah, nearly 20 goals sale by expected public. publicly, and Sport Logic had him at like break-even.

And the same percentage was really good, of course, and he won a bunch of games because he played so much behind a good team. But I think the abs were quite good defensively last year just because their skating ability just suffocates you at times. And when they choose to lean on you that way, it can be a nightmare. And that wasn't properly accounted for. So there was a big gap in terms of public and private in that way. What did ClearSight have them at last year?

Do you remember? Yeah, I'm just trying to Oh, I screwed a filter up So I had two different pages up And I'm like, why am I saying this and why does it look at it? No, he was, you know, like, so plus 1.3% On your sort of per shot basis. So that grades out at, you know, 24th in the league

Although there's probably a bunch in here that are tiny samples So just one, two, three, counting on the radio is grade four, five. So he was probably an above average star, but not like, not bad as that cat. He was flirting with the top 10. He was flirting with the top 10 and adjusted say percentage last year. And because of the volume he played, they got him plus 20. You know, in terms of goals saved above expected for 2020, 23, that ranked 7th behind Hellebuck, Vassie, Sorokin, Gustavsson, Elmark and Saros.

So Saros, who led the league and wasn't a Vesna Trophy finalist, I should add. A little bit of a pet peeve there. So, yeah, like I thought he was full value. I watched him in the playoffs. I covered that Seattle series. I thought he was really good there. So, you know, I thought he did everything he could last year to show What I believed coming out of New York

And some of the underlying number said too When he plays enough He can be a number one goal tender in the NHL I like the talent there Yeah I've watched him practice I've gotten a glimpse not a ton I won't pretend to put a glimpse into the mindset

And the way he approaches things I like all those things And the question of New York was he needs to play a little more Well I think the question after this year Is did they play him too much And so we'll see because what happens for a goal tender once you get to that point, like you can't just shut it down and restart, right? Like all of those miles are accumulated.

And that's why we see teams being so careful not to overplay guys. And I feel like they just – and if I know the little bit I know about your give, is he's going to be like, yes, I want to go back out there. Like he's going to say, please, sir, give me more, right? Yeah, absolutely. So these guys often can't help themselves And so they need somebody to sort of step in and tell them to take a break Okay, here's a related question for you then

We have 15 minutes left I want to get through as many of these as they can While I have you here because it's really good In today, oh sorry Is today's NHL materially different To what it was a decade ago Or could we have seen even better results Out of guys like Luongo

Keprosov, Broder Guys who consistently Topped out at 70 plus starts if they had today's modern load management. Oh, that's a really good question. I'm just bringing this on you now. I don't think we need to necessarily flesh this out. This could probably be a full show.

And so I want you to think about this. I think I'd just go back to what I just said. The game's never been harder for goalies. And goalies are telling me that repeatedly. And so would you have seen better? A, I don't think you'd see the same statistics regardless because teams are not wasting, you're not seeing the low danger shots.

And actually I should have done the math and double-check this, but anecdotally goes to tell you, unless you're playing the Carolina Hurricanes, you're not seeing as many low-danger shots on a nightly basis. So you will see less shots overall, but a higher percentage of them are tougher, and you don't get those feelers that make you feel good and pad your stats.

So say percentage is down. We keep seeing it drop. I don't think so, because the one thing, and Roberto in particular, I remember him telling me this, I can't remember at what point during his career, but learning to manage your B games, the nights where you don't have, your A game and learning to sort of have a foundation that allows you to survive in the

NHL with a B game was sort of part of his evolution. Goalie coaches and goalies tell me now, if you don't have your A game in today's NHL, that's when they hang five or six on you. Like you just can't get away with the B game anymore. It's so dynamic. There's so much more offense. Teams can't just grind it out and shut it down in front of you. And so I think there are probably a lot of nights where those goaltenders got away with a level

that you just can't anymore. And I think that's all part of why we're seeing, you know, a lowering of the games played totals even amongst the elite, which is why, you know, here's a question for you is we're closing on Mark Andre Fleury becoming the fourth goaltender to reach the thousand game mark. I know how much that meant to Roberto to be the third.

Is Flurry going to be the last? Probably. I think so too. Yeah. I was doing the math on Vassi. There's a few guys like Soros and Hellebuck who get run out there more than anyone else. Right.

But they'd have to keep up at this rate, which is higher than anyone else, for another decade into their 40s to do what. And yeah, Flurry's 39, but you look at the years he started 65, 63, 62. Like even the workhorses are not going to be asked to play that much. The number keeps coming down. It's that 55 now is an ideal, and I wouldn't be surprised if in a couple years we're talking about 50. Yeah, I mean, we're going to approach, I kind of say this tongue-in-cheek, but 10 years from now we're going to be in an NHL where the nerds are running the sport,

and like myself, and you've got goalies coming in like 17 minutes into the game, MLB style, whether they're coming in on the fly, and, you know, every team's carrying three goalies, so they're getting full nights off and they're being sent to whatever next city you're going to be in four days from now and they're not even with the team preparing for whatever game you're playing that night. It's going to be an entirely different world. So, yeah, I would definitely bet against anyone just getting to that volume of starts. But the reason why I picked this actually was because this week on Thursday, Robert Along was being inducted in the Canucks Ring of Honor.

And I really want to get one of those bobbleheads that are giving out to all the fans that are coming to the game. I don't think we're going to get those in the press box. But I think we should make note that in the past, the team would have had those in the press box. So hopefully that standard is maintained. Someone might be listening. Someone might be listening from 03 to 08,

72, 75, 76, 73 games played in those four seasons for Roberto Longgo. Wow. I'm going to say we will definitely not be seeing that. No, no, although I did have a young goal, and I'll save his name because I don't want to put him on the spot, but I had a young goal that coming to the league say that his goal was to play 82, that he believed it was possible. Keep dreaming. I don't think teams will let him.

Kids, everyone have a dream. It's okay. Okay, one final question here. I do want to talk about the Devils with you because we have a lot of questions, a lot of debate about this, right, in terms of their goals again struggles this year, how much of it is on playing style, how much of it is on personnel, because they did change some key pieces on that blue line, and how much of it is the goaltending just not being as good as it was last year?

And I think it's a really interesting debate because I think there's a lot of nuance to it that probably isn't being captured a lot of these conversations. You essentially just pick your side and then you argue that to the extreme. And sort of you can curate the numbers. like what else saying with the aves you can selectively pinpoint whatever you want and then go with it that way and make a compelling argument how do you feel about this in terms of how much of this is on

Vanichick and Schmead, how much of it is on what's happening in front of them and how much of it might be sort of a philosophical thing in terms of the way the devils might be playing and what they're giving up in front of them. Well, I mean, this is a tough one because I think it requires more nuance. Like I've got the numbers in front of me

and I've seen them play. Well, the game you saw Banichick play here was ugly. It was a tough game, but then, like, even some of the rebounds that end up going to the back door for tap-ins, like the initial shots coming through layers of traffic and screens, like they're not as easy as they necessarily look, and, you know, once they get to the backside, it's an open. There's a lot of that, there's a lot of that both ways.

You're such a goalie, you get a guy, look at that. These shots, there's layers. Come on, Kevin. Demko gave up the winner. in the final whatever, a couple of minutes on a similar play. And nobody said,

I mean, because he's the, you know, he's the quarter-pulled Bezna guy, even though the numbers have slipped of late, nobody says anything about it. Like,

I just think sometimes the narrative can fuel our criticism of individual goals and moments. And I haven't seen enough of them defensively. I can tell you what the numbers say. Their penalty kills atrocious, third worst in the league, in terms of what they give up,

the most dangerous chances. And that can erode your confidence pretty quick. Overall, they're mid-pack. Off the rush, their 23rd. That's a little problematic. I think there are nights like we saw that where and this is the part

that it's harder to sort but they're nights where you just give away and Brindamore talked about this when Carolina was in town while the team was busy having a closed door meeting for 20 minutes. It wasn't quite 20 but we waited 20 to get in. It's the freebies. It's the backdoor tap and

it's the giving away of goals and if that happens frequently enough to a team and to a goaltender, it can really erode your confidence to trust everybody to do what they're supposed to do and be in your spot and take care of your job. And I've talked before about how that snowball can get rolling downhill. But at the end of the day, like the numbers so far this season for the goaltenders, like they're tough. Like Vanichek's below expected, right? He's a guy that I always felt,

you know, I've used this phrase before, like fantasy football. I wasn't sure how high the ceiling was, but I always felt like he had a really stable floor because a really good, solid technical game. he's not going to hurt you, right? But this year... Was getting pummeled on the inner shot stuff, he's like a 670% or something. Like pretty much if you get a good look on him and a lot of it is coming off of those secondary shots

where he stops the first one, which might not have been as difficult, although you might argue it was more challenging than it looks, but then he gives up the rebound and then that second one's in the back of the net and he's been getting hammered on those. Statistically where he's getting killed is the low danger stuff.

Really? It's the bad goals. Both him and Schmead. We talked about Georgia. That's the one that surprised me about Georgie. He's got eight already this year, which is one of the highest, might be the highest total in the league so far.

Vanichek and Schmead are at six and five already. And so statistically that's where they're getting killed on, you know, at least by the clear sight numbers. And neither one of them, I mean, they're just a hair below expected. They're not at the bottom of the league by any stretch. They're just a little below expected. And I think there is some unpredictability in that environment. You know, with Schmead, like you see the upside, you know it's there.

But this is the new reality of the NHL. And Lindy Ruff, I had this conversation with him as part of his pregame availability about the fact that Schmead was here, whereas normally he'd probably still be playing in the American Hockey League, racking up minutes and experience. The NHL is now a development league for goaltenders. And he's one of those guys that I think in a perfect world would still be playing every night. And so, you know, there's going to be inconsistency.

But because of the package, because of the upside there, they're willing to sort of live through it at the NHL level. And, you know, even, you know, I'd have to go back and listen to it. But, like, it really was almost like Lindy was saying, like, you know, like this guy should be playing more. But I think there's a lot of goal is like that. So I can't, I don't judge him as harshly. Vanichek's had a tough start.

Like I said, like, it's not bottom of the league, but it's below expected. And they signed him to be a guy who could give them steady just above expected goaltending. You don't need him to stop bullets in his teeth. that's not what he's ever really been asked to do. It's not who he is as a goaltender. But some of the foundational stuff, the, you know, has,

like I said, that shows up to me in the low danger goals, hasn't been to the standard, you would hope. And I'm just kind of curious to see where that goes for them and for him. Well, the reason why I think they're interesting is because the vault, like any volume stat is going to make it look like there, there's no issues defensively because they're not giving up much zone time. and they're not giving up a volume of rush chances against and dangerous stuff, but when they do give up these rush chances...

It's the highest danger stuff. It's kind of like that oilers conversation we had earlier where the difficulty of it is exceedingly high. And also, I think the issue with expected goals as a stat is it's an accumulation stat. So in a way, if your goalie's playing well, it's going to keep adding up because there's going to be more rebounds and more like second, third shots in a sequence that'll add up and those expected goals totals

of each of those individual shots is going to accumulate over time. Kind of like Christian Leitner, like missing his put back so he can grab another rebound? It's very easy to, not stat pad, but it's very easy to bring that total up quickly. Interestingly enough here, I'm going to the quick sidebar,

increasingly among some of the elite goalie coaches and elite goalie minds that I get to talk to, one of the trends I'm hearing more and more is that the good ones, don't give up those, that everything is controlled. Right. I mean, obviously, there are certain chances you just hope to stop. Right.

But when they're evaluating goaltending, what they're looking for is one of their primary candidates for, is this guy good, is not just does he stop pucks, does he control pucks? Does it die with him in terms of eating it and the next play is a face off? Does it go over the glass because he's controlling the low shots and steering it up over the glass?

Is he kicking it off the pads to a teammate that's open in the corner to start a breakout. Like there's an increasingly increasingly, and that's something that, you know, it's interestingly enough, I have to have a conversation with Steve Valakakak because they don't, they have rebound stats here,

but I don't know that they're measured and they're good and bad rebounds and then results off of them, but I don't know that they measure control, and that might be something they look into because increasingly I'm hearing goalie coaches talk about that as an important element of their evaluation. Well, that's really interesting.

I would love to know more about that, And, you know, just to close the point I was trying to make their... Before you're so rudely interrupted. No, no, I think that was a really great addition because I think that's a really important distinction. But what I was trying to get at was if you give up a rush chance or even, let's say, you get into the zone, and Vanichick gives up one of these bad goals you're saying

where it's low percentage, it could be from the point or it could be whatever, and it just goes in. Like, we never got to see the sequence through, so it's almost impossible to judge how good the team is defensively in front of the goalie in a way because the first shot went in, right, or the second shot went in. And so in that sense, of course it's going to look like it was like you weren't giving up very many shots or chances against or expected goals against because the puck went into the net and the sequence ended so quickly.

And similarly, you could say if the goalie is playing so well where they're just stomping it and freezing it for a face off. Right, we see it on the penalty kill a lot, right? Where teams are getting seen past all the time and all it takes is one chance and they only give up one on the penalty kill, but it's like a great, it's one that goes in 95% of the time, and the team converts, like we see those expected goal like it goes through the roof, right?

So the fact the devils are 30th on the PK, and the fact that they're 23rd on the rush despite being 14th overall in terms of giving up those high danger, most dangerous chances, I think that lends at least some

weight, I mean, we're just, like the goalie numbers include weighting that. We've weighted that in the goalie numbers, and they're still found to be a little below expected. But I think, you know, beyond the numbers, those are the type of chances that can crush your numbers and they can crush your confidence a little bit, the ones because they change how you might play it the next time because they typically involve laterals

and they typically involve somebody on the other end of those laterals with time and space to dust it off and pick a spot. Well, and finally, they have less offensive zone time themselves this year than last year, which is something they got really good at as a team, right? they went from just being a pure rush team to actually being able to grind out possessions. And so now... Numbers back that up first in the NHL

in terms of high danger created off the rush down to 15th in the Ozo. I've got them 15th in Ozo time as well. And so all of a sudden, just to bring it full circle, we started this with the Columbus conversation and the other extreme. In this sense, if you're not holding the puck in the offensive zone and it's coming right back,

a lot of those are going to be high danger rush chances, particularly high danger ones, which are they are given up. And I think that's been a problem for them. So in a way, we spend so much time being preoccupied and fixated on defensive zone structure and coverage. And you look at the sixth defensemen they have, is this good enough to win a Stanley Cup with? And in reality, I think for this team, actually getting back to how they played offensively last year and getting better offensively in that way is going to generate better defensive results for them. And it's almost, it's counterintuitive, but it also is intuitive if you just think logically about how the game's played.

It's like the Oilers, right? Everybody was talking about how they made changes to their. defensive zone system. Well, they weren't getting killed in the defensive zone. They were getting killed off the rush. And yeah, they made changes to their neutral zone system too. And maybe that was part of it. But the biggest thing was they were just taking chances offensively and creating

giveaways offensively that were leading to odd man rushes the other way and goals that go in 95% of the time. And that doesn't always, it did show up a little bit in my numbers, but you had to watch it to sort of see why it was happening. Because the reaction everyone jumped to was, oh, they changed the defensive system. That's why. It's like, no, actually the offensive players are turning pucks over in really bad spots, and nobody's coming back.

And that's how you end up being one of the worst rush teams against in the NHL. Kevin, I really want to talk about Ben Waller with you and Rangers goaltending and everything, but we're out of time today. So that's a tease for next time I have you on. My answer is basically put him and his brother in the Hall of Fame and a whole bunch of goalie coaches. So if any Hall of Fame committee members are listening, send me your email and I'll send you the reasons why. Send us the Roberto Longo Bobbleheads and do that. Kevin, I'm going to let you go.

This is a blast. Everyone go, following Goal magazine. Kevin is in goal on social media. Thank you for coming on. Hopefully, the Discord community. Enjoyed our chat. Hopefully everyone listening, enjoy this. No Dragon Ballsie references this time.

I promise I'll spring two on you next time to make up for it on average. Thank you, Kevin, for taking the time. And we'll be back soon with plenty more of the HockeyPedia guest streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network.