The Hockey PDOcast - Difficulty Evaluating Defensemen, and How Their Environment Impacts Their Performance

Episode Date: November 23, 2024

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Harman Dayal to talk about the Canucks second pair, Marcus Pettersson's profile as a trade candidate, Jonas Siegenthaler's bounce back, the Predators struggles. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Regressing to the mean since 2015, it's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name is Demetri Filippovich and joining me in studio here to close out the week. It's my good buddy Harmon Dile, what's going on, man? Nothing much. You're excited for the weekend. How about you? I'm very excited for the weekend.

This is my third show of the day here in the PDR cast. We're running the gauntlet, but I saved the best for last having you in studio to have some fun. Here's a plan for today's show. We're going to have a lot of defensemen. centric talk. It didn't necessarily come as like a big plan of mine where I was like, I want to talk about defensemen. But in chatting with you before in terms of topics we wanted to get into, I was like, all right, I want to talk about the Canucks second pair. I want to talk about Marcus Pedersen, because I know you just wrote about trade fits for him on the athletic. I want to talk about Jonas

Siegenthallor. I want to talk about Brady Shea. And then eventually I was like, all right, the common uniting theme between all those guys is they all play the defense position in the NHL. So I guess that is what the theme for today's show is. Let's start with. the Canucksa team that you cover on a day-to-day basis and are very familiar with. I thought you were a colleague at the athletic Don Lus Chishin, friend of the show, had a really interesting note in his recent 16 stats article there this week, kind of showing the three defense pairs that Connox have primarily used this year, right, with Hughes and Heronic up top.

Bransstrom de Arna is kind of a sheltered third pair. And then those two sandwiching this Carson-Susie, Tyler Myers-Pair, that has really struggled both statistically, but also just, I think, to the eye test for anyone that's been watching these Canucks games, let's break it all down in terms of the causes for it, and also look ahead a little bit to what the Canucks can realistically do here on the fly to address that because it's great that the usage Rick Tocket is sort of deploying these pairs in, is generating great results from the first and third pair,

but ultimately if you're going to keep bleeding goals against, particularly the way the second pair has, and rely on them as much as Rick Tocket has, I think that's something that is eventually going to need to be sorted out one way or another. How concerned are you about that pair? How concerned do you think Rick talking to the Canucks are right now and do you think it's ultimately going to lead to some sort of a drastic move in terms of either internal personnel or most likely a trade? Very concerned, right?

And it's interesting that you bring up that the third pair has really been stabilized. That's also something that wasn't a guarantee at the start of the season because Brandstrom was really just a throw-in as part of that trade, Colorado for the connects to get off Tucker Pullman's contract so that they could avoid entering LTIR and Bransom started the season in the HL. So it wasn't just a second pair issue at the start of the season. It was a bottom four issue whenever Quinn Hughes isn't on the ice. So they've been really fortunate that they've at least got the third pair sort it out first and foremost. Now with the second pair, Susie and Myers were in this matchup role last

year and it's so odd to me because Susie really had a breakout year. He was so impressive. Now he was banged up as well. He only played about 40 games. But when he was healthy and even through the playoffs, he was steady, reliable. He was so low maintenance, defender the rush well. And some defensive defensemen, they have the size. And that's really all they all they have. But he legitimately had the IQ as well with his positioning, how he uses his stick, pretty more. for a guy that big. And yet he's been, I think, the biggest difference for that second pair as far as why it's fallen off a cliff, because he's looked borderline unplayable at times. And I say this as somebody that heading into the season thought, okay, Susie, like I'm a Susie fan, right?

After last year. So I think with that pair, the biggest issue that stands out is their inability to move the puck out of the defensive zone. they seem way too reliant on whenever they face forecheck pressure to just throw it up the wall. And it seems like opposing teams know that that's the only route that they're going to try and go is to rim it or to try a bank pass or to try a stretch pass up the flanks. They are never able to successfully either wheel it out with their skating ability or use the middle to exit the zone. So their zone exits are just way too predictable. that's why they're getting relentlessly caved and hemmed in. They are.

Honestly, I'd go even, obviously, last year was his first year with the Canucks, and so I think that's what you're referencing. I'd even stretch it back, though, to his days, first with Minnesota, and then even in Seattle, right? This has been a very reliable defender who actually almost kind of profiled as this sort of PDO juicer over time as well, where I feel like regardless of where he was playing or what he was doing, he'd always be churning out these favorable results.

And so I think that's what makes the start of this season very uncharacteristic, but we're at a 20-gate mark. I think this is a point where you need to start taking some of this stuff seriously and acting accordingly the number is here. So that first pair of Hughes and Hironic, with them on the ice, the connects are up 16 to 9, have 63% of the expected goal share. With the third pair, Brandsterman Day-Harnay, up 6 to 1, 66% of the expected goal share with Sussian Myers down 13 to 5 in 200 minutes, 40% of the expected goal share.

And it's been a tough watch, especially for a pair that you mentioned last, year. They played about 400, five-on-five minutes together they did, and they had 12 goals against in that entire time. So they've already exceeded that in about half of the workload. On a positive note, I will say watching these games, Brandstrom, I don't want to say he's exceeded my expectations because I think he was a player who I really liked his profile and like the flashes we would see in Ottawa, but for whatever reason, they were always quite uncomfortable actually leaning on him in a legitimately serious big picture role. And then obviously this summer we saw the way the league thought of him

where he signs a 900K one-year deal with Colorado. And I assume that was probably the best offer he was going to get. And then is kind of tossed in as a throw-in in this Tucker Pullman cap dump. And I really love what I've seen from him. He's playing so confident all the stuff he's doing at the Blue Line actually has some of that puck moving ability that Canucks are really craving. And it's remarkable that they were able to just essentially, mine him for nothing and he's still a 25 year old defenseman right so you don't want to get too

carried away after 20 games but I will say just watching him play especially in contrast to some of the other Canucks defensemen it's pretty startling to see just what they're able to get out of them and for how cheap they got him he also passed through waivers that's a fortune part two is it's not just that they acquired him as a throw in and that he started the year in the hL like he had to pass through which um they're fortunate uh that he he passed through and It's an important stylistic contrast. I know that this coaching staff really loves their big tree trunk style defensemen who can play that playoff style, clear out bodies in front of the net, break up the cycle, be big, mean and physical to play against. But even going back to the offseason, it was on paper a massive concern as far as their bottom four potentially having puck moving concerns because you had Sousie, Myers, Forbert, DeHernet, all guys who are at least six foot four, six.

foot five if not taller and in bigger, but all four of them, none of them are quality puck movers can have the skating ability to transition out of the defensive end with clean possession. So for Bransom to come in and fit well with DeHarnay, and DeHarnay has been banged up recently, has missed some games, but that's just an important stylistic contract because even going back to when DeHernay was successful in Edmonton's second or third pair last year. It was with Brett Kulak, a smooth skater who could handle most of the responsibilities with the puck. Whereas when the Canucks started on opening night, they had four bert and de

hernade together, two tree chunks who can't move the puck. Yeah. Right. So it's just been an important stylistic counter for Brandstrom to have that speed to be a guy that it's not just clean exits. It's he can do it single-handedly just with his feet. He doesn't need to rely on wingers being in the right spots or centermen to come low. so that he's making outlet passes. Yeah, he can make those outlet passes too, but sometimes he can just wheel it around the net,

shake fork checkers off. The way that he's activating in the offensive zone, joining as taking fourth man's ice, has been important because the Canucks have wanted to be a team that creates more off the rush offensively this year. And even in the offensive end, I think a lot of times going back to down the stretch last season in the playoffs,

there were just way too predictable in the offensive zone where they'd control the puck down low off the cycle, and it would be such a simple, like low to high pass, DDD, and then a point shot. There was just no movement at the blue line outside of when Quinn Hughes was on the ice. Now Brantstrom gives them an option as far as he likes to move off the puck. He can walk the line.

He does have a shot that successfully is able to get through the first layer of traffic and doesn't always get blocked. So he's given them a different dynamic element, a different offensive touch, which has been really critical. Well, I think that's what makes the Canucks offseason a bit more confounding. It's obviously not, I think, even with the benefit of hindsight, because anyone covering the team we're thinking about this critically brought it up in the offseason as it was happening in real time.

Then you and I a couple weeks ago, the first time we had you on this season, spoke about this at length as well. They made his concerted effort up front to bring all these fast skaters who could help them attack more off the rush. Rick Tocke had wanted to redesign the way they play stylistic. to do so, and yet it was just almost an afterthought that you actually need defensemen to help facilitate that, right? It's like, all right, well, it's great if Quinn Hughes is playing 25 minutes, and you know you're going to get that when he's on the ice, but what happens when he's not on, especially if you're going to use Hronic with him on that juiced up top pair, and it's nice that

they got that for Brannstrom, but I think that second pair in particular provides a real weak link here, and I wonder your take on this as well, because I was kind of looking at this and just thinking about it from the way Rick Tocket is pairing his combinations in terms of forwards and defensemen, right? And I think it's notable that to start the year, while we were talking about Elias Pedersen struggles and everything that was going on with him, and a lot of that was certainly individually based, and he seems to be snapping out of it right now. But I don't think it help matters that you look to the usage,

and it's like, all right, well, he plays about, what, 40% of his minutes or so with the Quinn Hughes pair, whereas they give J.T. Miller's line about 60% of his minutes. with the Quinn Hughes pair and a lot of Pedersen's minutes are coming with the second pair that's struggling to actually put them in advantageous positions to attack downhill. I'm curious to see, we only have that one game now with J.T. Miller's leave of absence and I'm curious to see

during the stretch of time whether Rick Tockett experiments with pairing up the top pair with Pedersen's line a little bit more to see if that can juice some of those results as well. I'm not sure if he's comfortable doing so because he clearly wants to have pretty much either Pedersen or Hughes on the ice most of the time. So we'll see if they do that.

But I think that's an important piece of context here when you're analyzing what's going on with the Canucks and what's been going on with Pedersen's season particularly. Absolutely. And even before Miller's absence, there were a couple games in the lead-up to that. Pedersen was starting to find his game. He had a couple of multi-point performances. And that was around the same time that Miller's form was starting to slide. Besser was hurt. And so because of those circumstances, Patterson's lines.

was sort of unofficially their best offensive threat. And you started to see Rick Tocke, start to sprinkle in more shared minutes between that Hughes pair and the Pedersen line. And since then, you've really been able to see Patterson's game start to take off now. A lot of it is him individually finding his form and Kiefer Shorwood bumping up to that Patterson line

and being this unexpected spark. How many breakaways that he have in that most recent game against the Rangers? At least two or three of my count. I mean, every game, right? Like even in the Nashville one, he's just constantly getting chances off the rush. But yeah, I mean, I think that the Hughes context is important as far as analyzing perhaps why Pedersson was struggling early in the season.

All you need to do is look at J.T. Miller's 5-15 on-ice numbers with and without Quinn Hughes, right? J.T. Miller's overall numbers, you look at them and go 55% expected goal share. Oh, you might think if you haven't watched the Canucks a lot that he's still been this dominant two-way threat, but the numbers are staggering as far as how far they fall off a cliff when Miller's on the ice without Queen Hughes. And by the eye test, you can see that Miller hasn't really been driving play as much as we saw last year. So that is a huge piece of the context. Hughes is their biggest play-driving engine, and that has a ripple effect on whatever forward

line he spends most of his time with. Well, that's a natural segue here then to get a to the Marcus Pedersen conversation, right? Because I think we've certainly heard that the Canucks are near the top of the list of teams that are interested in services. I think the Oilers as well have sort of been referenced as one there. I think the connection is pretty obvious, the line to draw between Jimford or other Verde being in Pittsburgh when they acquired him in the first place from Anaheim for Daniel Sprong and his interest in him now. We know that he certainly, much like most GMs loves his guys.

And generally when we see GMs like that switch teams, it's like the players they've acquired previously tend to follow. I know you did a big deep dive on this and wrote about it and thought about it over the past couple days. What do you think about that as a fit and also Pedersen as a player? Because for me, it's been very tricky. I've gotten a lot of questions about him and certainly people are intrigued because he seems to be at the top of every trade board right now in evaluating his play. Right? Because I thought that last year he was one of Pittsburgh's better, most consistent players.

And that's why I was so strange to hear him kind of thrown around in trade talks at the time because I was like, man, he's been playing really well. and people are treating him as a throw-in in some of these deals, and I think he's much more than that. This year he seems to have regressed a little bit, and I think there's been some tough moments, certainly on the game tape and to the eye test, and the numbers back that up. What do you think about his performance this year

and kind of just how you evaluate him within the grand scheme of being a defenseman who's playing a ton of minutes on arguably, if not the worst defensive teams in the league? Yeah, he hasn't been as sharp as he was last season or even the year before, but I always give defensemen who play difficult minutes on really bad teams a little bit more leeway. It's just the type of defensemen where once they go to a more favorable environment where things are steadier, more stable, it makes a difference,

especially because Carlson and LaTang have been tire fires and disastrous in their own rights this season. So I don't put too much stock into Pedersen maybe regressing a little bit this year. I still look at him as a quality second pair, down defenseman, right? He's an interesting guy in that he's six foot four, six foot three, six foot four has this massive wings can take away passing lanes is so smart positionally, but he still has a bit of a slight frame. He's not, like a lot of times you see six foot three, six foot four defensive defenseman and you assume oh he's going to be able to bully guys in front of the net, break up the cycle using his physicality and competitiveness. That's not Marcus

Pedersen. So that's one thing that's stylistically, any acquiring team is going to have to sort of keep in mind. But I think he just functions best as a shutdown option next to a more offensive partner who can push the pace, whether that's been Carlson in the past, LaTang at times, even going back to John Marino. And that's also why with the Canucks, as much as Patterson would absolutely be an upgrade for the Blue Line, I don't think it's a perfect fit because what the Canucks really need on the second pair is a dynamic puck mover. And while Pedersen has a decent first pass, he's not an

above average puck mover. That's not a strength of his game. He's usually more deferring to his partner on that side of things. Yeah, he's certainly not going to be, I think, initiating and pushing the pace himself. He's going to put his partner in a position to do so. The issue is, as you bring up there, the elephant in the room is like, all right, well, who's that partner going to be to actually facilitate that, right? And so if you're acquiring him, I think you need to be cognizant of that and I would worry about that as a fit for the Canucks. I'm not sure stylistically he actually addresses what they need the most, although I guess I would argue that considering the general talent on the blue line, just getting another good player would probably

help in some capacity, just maybe not directly what they specifically need. I think that's a great point you make in terms of a defenseman on a really bad defensive team. Their numbers are generally going to be sort of distorted. And the fact that he's what, 27, 28, years old and what we saw from in the last year and even in the past before that would lead me to believe that this probably isn't like a very accurate representation of what he is at this point of his career. Maybe it feels in his early 30s. I'd be like, all right, maybe he just fell off the cliff. It'll be pretty uncharacteristic for that that that actually happened. I think the issue for him is that as his primary partner being Eric Carlson, and I actually think Carlson has been okay.

He's at his moments. He certainly had his low lights this year, as you'd expect. I think he's done a lot of good stuff, the issue is that with the way this Penguins team has been constructed this year, they're so slow up front in terms of their ability to backtrack and transition defensively that when this Carlson-Peterson pair is on the ice, if Carlson's pushing up the ice and working his way down the zone or getting involved in the rush and attacking the way he does and it's inclined to do so, all of a sudden it's left them in these situations where like Pedersen's the only guy back. And it's like, all right, odd man rush here or there. He's having it all of a sudden over-extend himself and get out of position and then he winds up looking bad as a trickle-down of

that sort of domino effect. And so I think you need to kind of bake all of that in with the evaluation. And I'm sure in a more sort of discipline, coherent environment, he would probably look better. And I think just individually feel much more comfortable playing that way. So I think that's a useful kind of indicator. But I just, I was looking at his numbers and just going through some of his, some of his tape. And I'm like, I, with guys like this, I just don't really know what to make of it in terms of like tracing a direct impact and then trying to sort of project what that looks like in a different situation because it's

just such an extreme outlier. It's also, I think this extends to a broader conversation with defensemen in general is I think the, I think so much of a defenseman's whether they look good or not really comes down to environment rather than, like

I think there are such few defensemen in the league that can truly change the environment by themselves. Right. I think I don't know what number you want to put on it, 30, 40, but I think that's even too high. I think it's a shockingly low number for like the way they're discussed where everyone at the age of bees. It's like such an important position. You need to be stacked there. It'll be a Stanley Cup contender. And then in terms of the number of guys I could list that actually matter in terms of not only overcoming the environment, but creating the environment. It's just such a low number in my opinion. And I'm not saying defensemen don't matter. They certainly do. But I think just in terms of a value. evaluating and thinking about it. Environment matters, so much more context in terms of who you're playing with, how you're playing, what you're asking them to do,

and then just the general situation kind of on top of that. Yeah, in Florida, like, look at how many reclamation projects they had successfully, how they won the Stanley Cup with, I mean, look at the way Forrestling went from being gallon waivers to a legit number of a D-Man, Oliver McMahon Larson resuscitating his career after being bought out in Vancouver. for just even guys like Mikala, right, was a sort of third pair defenseman and the blues for how long were they looking for

just like quality left side defenseman? And they even gave Mikala opportunities further up the lineup and he just wasn't it, went to the Rangers as rental and again was more just like a third pair defenseman. And then goes to Florida and all of a sudden in a better, more insulated environment is proving to be more. more than what he was previously in his career.

So I think that just extends a broader conversation where when I look at a defenseman like Pedersen, who's had a pretty good track record when the penguins have been more competitive, to now he doesn't look as good when they're one of the worst teams in the league. I've just been trained to, and maybe this is, maybe I'm being too favorable and generous with this assumption, but I think there's enough of a track record there to where I think he's just going to bounce back. I also look at like Hamas Lindholm for so long in Anaheim when the ducks were really good.

He was discussed as one of the best two-way defensemen in the league. And then when the ducks started entering their rebuild, everybody stopped talking about Hamas Lindholm. His underlying numbers were awful. Boston went out and acquired him. And even at that time, I remember a lot of the public commentary was slanted against Lindholm, pretty much every analytical model. didn't like him. But I sort of looked at still okay. I think he's still relatively young and even

watching him at times. I don't think he's washed. I think if anything, going to a more favorable Boston environment, he'll bounce back and then what? He ended up getting Norris votes the following year. So again, obviously, Lynn Holmes is a way better player than Patterson ever was. But I tend to factor environment a lot when assessing where Pedersen is right now and how bad the penguins have been. I guess the complicating factor then is you look at a lot of the trade boards from insiders right now, whether it's Chris Johnson's at the athletic or Frank Sarah Valle's at Daily Faceoff. And it's pretty slim pickens on the blue line, right? It's like a lot of names being vaulted up the board and treated as as hot commodities that on an open market based on

like true talent level and actual difference making ability aren't really comparative to a lot of even the forwards like wingers that don't profile as much and aren't going to get nearly as much of a return. And so that's where I get into a bit of a pickle here with thinking about this for a team that would be acquiring a guy like Pedersen. It's like, all right, defensemen are important. You need to address your current situation because if in the Canucks case, specifically, the second pair isn't getting it done, the issue is, do you want to go out then and pay a premium for a guy that we just said is very reliant on an environment and isn't necessarily someone who's going to individually move the needle that much themselves? Not that he would have to do so in Vancouver. I think

the bar to clear for an improvement is pretty low right now. and I think we agree that he'd look a lot better in this environment, but it's also then I'd much rather consolidate your assets to a player who actually does make a significant difference. Unfortunately, a lot of those guys at that position just aren't really available. Yeah, if I'm the Canucks, and this was ultimately my conclusion is, despite how much I like Patterson as a player, I would be in Wade and C-Mode if I was the Canucks.

It's not a perfect stylistic fit, but also, given how many teams are shopping for top-for, defensemen, which are a lot, by the way. I did a piece earlier at the start of the season looking at every team's blue line. Is it everyone except for Vegas and Carolina? Seriously. Like, they're all looking for top four help. The prices are going to be steep. And especially for a rental, given that the connects didn't pick until round three last year, first and foremost, the connects have to prove that they are one defenseman away from being a team that can do damage in the playoffs. We don't know that yet. I'm not saying that they aren't necessarily, but there are so many uncertain factors

with them right now considering Thatcher Demko. Not just, oh, and is he going to come back? Because it seems like his return is around the corner. But we're talking about an unprecedented injury that no NHL player has ever been through. Who knows when he does return if he's going to be able to, A, stay healthy and be what his performance actually looks like, right? And that's a massive factor because a huge part of why the Canucks were so impressive last year is because they got Veznik Albaer goaltending from Thatcher Demko. So that's a huge, huge ball up in the air. J.T. Miller's now personal leave of absence is up in the air. Elias Pedersen, it's good to see him finding traction lately, but we're still talking about

a player that only has 13 points and 18 games. He needs to be an elite game breaker for the Canucks to have any chance of being a Dark Horse Stanley Cup contender this year. So I think it would be premature for the Canucks to look at a player like Patterson who, yes, would upgrade their blue line, but is not a perfect fit and say, let's potentially give up a first round pick for a rental defenseman who could walk away in the summer. I think they should be in wait and C mode, not only to see if there are better fits that emerge on the market. I know there are slim pickings, but even like if a Rasmus Anderson or Mike Matheson becomes available, I. I think those defensemen stylistically check the puck mover box better than a Marcus Pedersen does. And they have term left on their deal as far as an extra year.

So if you're the Canucks, I think you'd be better off paying the premium to acquire a guy that is a better fit and gives you more value beyond just this season. And the second point just being, this team has to prove that they're worthy of going all in on. Forget the first round pick. I see a lot of people sniffing around Niels Hoaglander. And I just shuddered at the thought and visual. love that because I get the logic and it would be an absolute home run for the penguins because I don't think he's necessarily, you know, a foundational player. But when you look at their current

situation, just having someone who's under 25 years old and has offensive juice and is legitimately like explosive and creative the way that he is would instantly make him a one of one in their current situation. Like they're talking up Drew O'Connor at this point and he probably based on his salary will also go for quite a bit of to decide to trade him between now and the trade deadline, but it's just like, it's an entirely different ballgame. And I know that Holger hasn't scored at the rate he did last year, and a lot of that was shooting percentage driven, certainly. But considering how much he costs and his age and the fact that we know that he's immensely skilled, I think that would be just like a non-starter for me. Yeah, I, it depends all right, because if a coach is just never going to play

a guy, then at a certain point, you don't want the asset to, to, to, to, to, to, to, to, to, to, to, to, diminish in terms of market value. Now, I'm with you. I'm a believer in Hoaglander's skill set. I even go back to like the first seven games of the season. He was on fire. He was producing. He was in top six role.

He had worked his way up to playing with Pedersen and Garland. He had the best underlying numbers on the team as far as play driving. And by the eye test too, he was pushing the pace. He was making things happen in the offensive zone. one bad back check against Carolina on the second goal that they scored in a game late in October and immediately he was relegated to the fourth line and since then his confidence and play has started to unravel but even when that initial demotion happened my first thought was I think it's a mistake to send him down the lineup this early into the season and I really look at him

and I know he struggled lately, but if he was just given a consistent middle six opportunity, I really believe that he flourished. This is a guy that, again, sure, he was on a bit of a shooting percentage better, but to score 24, 5-on-5 goals to be top 10 among all NHL players in that category tied with Miko Ranton is so, so impressive. And not just that last year was a one-off, but even in his rookie season, I believe he was a top 50 forward

as far as five-and-five point production. So this is a guy that. that just produces at even strength has the energy, the motor, and the skill to legitimately drive play. And for as much as you want to talk about the defensive lapses and yeah, he still takes on disciplined penalties at times, compared to where he was during the Bruce Boudreira he's taken significant strides and cutting down his turnovers, for example, over the last year and a half. So, I mean, yeah, if the Canucks make him available, Pittsburgh should jump all over that opportunity.

That would be a home run. I wouldn't even be surprised if he'd instantly become their best left winger. Yeah. While we're on the topic of Penguins' Defense, we're going to go to break here in a second, but I just wanted to put this in the ether because I was thinking about this a lot recently. I think it's more of a next summer move than it is in season

because I think it'll be tricky to facilitate with how big the cap is, and I think just too much has to come around in a short period of time. But Eric Carlson, has two years left after the season at 11.5 million A.A.V. But after his signing bonus is paid this summer, he's actually owed 11.5 million total in real money

over the final two years of his deal. The Carolina Hurricanes. Brent Burns' contract as the right shot, top pair of defensemen comes off the books this year. If you combine it with Orlov, it comes out to about 12 million or so in AAV, which is pretty much around what I just said Carlson makes. And man, you talk about environment,

and I know he's getting up there in age, certainly, but just thinking about what an Eric Carlson, even at this point in his career, would look like in a situation where he gets to just push the puck up the ice and he can join the play knowing that there's always going to be someone back to recover for him, whether it's playing with Jacob Slavin full-time at 5-on-5 or just in general,

how active and involved their forwards are at backtracking, he would look so unbelievably cool in that situation. And so maybe it's wishcasting, but I'm just putting that out there, is someone to put in the back of your brain and we'll revisit this in the summer. But the money and the situation and the opening just makes too much sense for it not to happen. I love that idea, actually. And I say this is someone that is really skeptical of Carlson's defensive ability at that standpoint.

But if there's one situation that is perfectly crafted to shelter those weaknesses, it is exactly what you mentioned were not just the Carolina environment, but also getting to play next to Jacob's Lavin and sort of fill in that Brent Burns role. I really like that idea. Look at you. I wish this was a video show so people could see how excited you are. You're beaming.

Your smile's going ear to ear right now. When you start talking about Eric Carlson? I was like, ah, I don't know. No, it makes way too much sense. Not that. Yeah, that, that, you've convinced me there. Eric Talski, I know you're listening. Make that happen.

All right. Let's take our break here, Herm. And then we come back. We'll jump right back into it. We'll finish up today's show. You're listening to the Hockey-Ocast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. All right, we're back here on the Hockey P.D.O.cast with Harman Dow, we're closing out the week here. Harm. It's the last segment of the week. Let's finish strong. Let's keep up with the female defenseman. We've got a question here from the PDO cast listener, Sad Pitt in the Discord. Ask, is Joe, is, is Jonas Stigantaller actually good. His 5-15 numbers are really impressive. But every time I watch him play, it feels like something terrible is about to happen. A player that I think you and I have actually spoken about last season when you wrote about his,

struggles amidst everything that was going on in New Jersey's defensive environment. His play has dramatically improved playing with Jonathan Kovacevich this season. His numbers look amazing. When I watch, he's making a ton of great plays defensively. His stick is so active and just so on point, pinpoint accuracy with it. I see what the listener is saying because there's certain times where he's out there and he's chasing the play a little bit or when he's handling the puck where it's like, oh man, this doesn't look good aesthetically. I'm a bit nervous for what's about to happen here, yet the results

just keep kind of churning out the way they have this year. What are your thoughts on what were you seen from this season and kind of how you explain this sort of phenomenon that the listeners are referring to? Yeah, I really impressed with his bounceback performance because last year he was a turnover machine, his rush defense numbers fell off a cliff. It was really disappointed, actually, because previous to that, he had a strong track record in New Jersey of being this steady defensive option that you could trust to go out there and eat a lot of those difficult own zone starts and in matchups, I'd say good defense is often subtle. And so those moments of nervousness that you mentioned or the occasional time that he chases a play, that stands out to

the eye. But I think a lot of Seagenthaler's strengths, unless you're specifically keying in on him, will often fly under the radar, right? Like if you have a stick in the right, and it prevents an attacking player from even attempting a pass into the slot, like that's not going to really stand out to the eye, but it made a practical impact or whether you play tight gap in the neutral zone or angling a guy to the outside or even just like winning battles to break up the cycle.

Those things aren't sexy. They never land on a highlight reel, and unless you're specifically keying in on I want to watch Seagenthaler, you're not often going to notice those moments where he is making a tangible defensive impact. The other thing that I'd say is, like, two things. One, there's a long enough track record there with the exception of last season

where he's delivered these strong defensive results to where I believe it when you've done it for this long. And secondly, and I think this is the bigger point to more specifically address the listener's question is he's doing this going up against top lines. Yeah. And I think the fact that he's even trusted in the first place by an NHL head coach to defend against top lines.

I think that speaks volumes because in years past, and I think we've become a lot better about it in the public now. But if you go back five, six, seven years ago, there'd be countless examples of defensemen who would drive really solid defensive numbers or just overall two-a play driving results at five-on-five, and they'd be like you post their charts or whatever, and everybody would be talking these guys up is, oh, these guys are so good defensively,

but really soft usage, and the coaches wouldn't trust them. And oftentimes in those cases, the coaches were right, right? Because when those defensemen would get elevated up the lineup, they'd get exposed. And I think that's a key difference here, is it's not just good results and good underlying numbers. It's you've got a head coach that trusts him to go up against top lines

on a night-to-night basis. I think that speaks a ton to addressing the actual. test component of it. And I think last year was very easily explainable from the point of everything kind of compounded, right, because he had been so used to playing with Dougie Hamilton, Dougie Hamilton gets hurt. He's kind of mixing between partners. He played a lot with a really young player in Shimones. And he clearly had his confidence shaking a little bit. So then he started making a lot of turnovers and his puck handling. And I think this is what the listeners referring to from last season was very shaky, right? And there'd be a lot of those mistakes and

miscaps and moments. And then the devils were so bad at sustaining offensive zone pressure and like creating an environment where the defenseman could breathe. So then every one of those moments would instantly result in an odd man rush coming back the other way. And then his confidence being shaken off of a turnover all of a sudden, he'd just be kind of sagging back in self-preservation mode. And they were just getting hammered off the rush with him on the ice.

And that's not really the type of player he's been in the past, the type of player he's shown to be this year as well. And so it's awesome to see that he's back to that form from two years ago. And what a God said for the devils and Sheldon Keith has been, that they found this pair with him and Kovacevic and how good they've been for them and kind of allowing everything else to fall into place. All right. Next question here, Haram, about the Nashville Predators,

as I try to pull it up here. Nicole asks, what kind of player moves are available and possible this year to help Nashville improve? Would a coaching or systems change be beneficial for this year to help get better results from this roster? Now, there's 6, 11, and 3 this year. They've been outscored 45 to 21. at 5-on-5 and 20 games. And I was watching them in their most recent game Wednesday night.

It was a quiet night around the league, especially in the late slate. There were these two just absolutely miserable games going on. One was in L.A. where Buffalo and L.A. were essentially having a rock fight and it wound up, I believe, it was 1-0. I don't even know if there was an empty-netter at the end, but L.A. was just going completely through the motions in that game. And then the game in Seattle, between the Cracken and the Predators,

and the Predators, once again immensely struggle. They got shut out by Joey to court. I think they muster just 24 shots on goal in the game. And it was a lot of the recurring issues we've seen from this year. Now, I know that, I don't know if you were at the game, but they played a recent game. There was kind of an exception to this entire season where they actually scored a bunch of goals in Vancouver

and looked like not the high-flying offense we came to expect, but at least one that had some legitimate firepower and artillery got a couple goals from Stephen Stamco's. And it was like, all right, like Nashville. This is what looks more, at least from a results perspective, like what I thought they'd be and then they immediately have this stinker in Seattle and there's been enough

of these stacked together now that I think we've gone from like being concerned to full blown it might be Jover. Yeah, you dig that steep of a hole that early especially in the Central Division that is I believe very competitive, right? If this was the Pacific Division

or the Atlantic. Or the Atlantic maybe you've still got a reasonable shot but I think this is just way too deep of a hole. And any moves that you try and make now to try and fix things are like you're you're at more of a risk of shooting yourself on the foot and making your problems worse as far as making a bad trade than you are of actually finding this silver bullet that's going to help turn your season around. I'd say as far as why Nashville struggle, I mean, so many reasons, but one that has maybe flown under the radar that I was even thinking

about in the off season that maybe I even myself didn't put enough stock into was last year the O'Reilly Forsberg Nyquist top line was one of the best in the NHL. They flat out overachieved.

And I think that's a big part of it sort of reminds me of when for example the the Tage Thompson and Alex Tuckline from like two years ago really clicked. And I remember having this conversation with an executive because early the following season

Buffalo struggled and I was just sort of trying to figure out okay why has Buffalo been more disappointing it was after they almost made the playoffs and there was all that hype around them I remember having a conversation with somebody in the league and they were saying sometimes lines that are good on paper deliver elite results

just because they have this chemistry going for one year and then they're not able to replicate it the following season that's sort of what would happen with Buffalo's top line last season and thinking about that that's sort of what's happened with Nashville's top line this year as well because going back

to last year on paper Phil Foresburg elite talent but Ryan O'Reilly at that stage of his career Gus Nyquist at that stage of his career that trio you wouldn't expect them last season to especially the way they played in the second half to be one of the best

first lines in the NHL so I think that's one of the variables that has changed as well that maybe we when when everybody was analyzing Nashville's oh they've juiced their offense that wasn't taken enough into consideration that okay that part of lineup overachieved and may fall off they were also just such a like hardworking effort based team in my opinion last year and I was reflected by a lot of those like four check rebound chances this poor logic turns out and they just got slower as well right I think Like the logic was sound from the perspective of we have this good structure in terms of the way we play and we're generating chances, but we don't have shooting talent. And so now we're going to add offensive players to put into those spots, fill in the gaps.

And we keep creating all of these chances at this rate, we're going to score more goals. And it's like, all right, yeah, I agree with that. That makes a lot of sense. But you look this year, they're 27 in the league in both slot and inner slot chances. You look at their heat map on Michael McCurdy's website, HockeyViz. it's pretty much just entirely point shots. Like they have no recourse of actually getting into the high danger areas. A lot of the looks they were creating and not scoring on last year,

they're not even creating anymore to begin with. Defensively, they're a mess. Similar to what I said about Pittsburgh, their forwards have been so slow that it just won an odd man rush against after another. They're so slow at backtracking. There's just a general sort of like sloppiness and malaise, in my opinion, that I don't really know what to attribute to. You watch that game, and unfortunately it's been a recurring

theme where Brady Shea, who at least profiles as a high-end skater certainly was earlier in his career and even as recently as last year in Carolina, looks to be exposed in this kind of environment change and maybe that ties in neatly to what we were talking about earlier. But he just cannot keep up. Like he's behind the play. He's chasing. He's making horrible defensive mistakes, turnovers with a puck. He's vaulted quickly into my opinion as like one of the worst contracts in the league and

where 20 games into a seven-game term that they sent a seven-year term that they gave them. And so it's a nightmare. I'm not sure there's a move there on the board to make. I know that there's been a lot of talk about first Barry Trots looking at both the center market, but also at a top four defensemen. They're one of the teams that you mentioned there earlier. They do have three first-round picks this upcoming year, I believe. I don't think they're going to be very likely to make an aggressive trade in that capacity

because they just keep losing. And I think at some point reality is going to sink in in terms of where things are headed for them. And all the law was made of in that similar interview, that same interview, Barry Trott's talking about this rebuild plan if things don't turn around. Obviously, they're not going to necessarily conventionally rebuild, considering how much money they just invested into these veterans long term that are stuck there for now. But I would like to see them potentially embrace calling up more guys from Milwaukee from their HL affiliate. The way they did was Zach Leroux, who I think is immediately fit in and been one of the brighter spots on the team.

There's guys that are contributing down there again, that they drafted high. in the past couple years that would probably, at least aesthetically, make this a bit more promising. The issue is that Andrew Burnett, like most coaches, doesn't really trust young players. Like, you look, and it's like Luke Evangelis is playing about 12 minutes a game. Phil Tomasino, about 11, and considering healthy scratching them on alternating that. And so I'm not sure it's a situation where they're actually going to be willing and able to bring in some of these young forwards from Milwaukee and either bench or scratch a guy like Stamco's or Marsha, so who aren't producing, considering how much they just invested.

So barring that, I'm not sure what the move is. That's probably the one that I would go to first. I'm just not sure they're going to be willing to admit defeat this quickly in that. Yeah, anytime you have a roster like this underperforming by this extreme of a margin, the only realistic way out, the one that's going to make the most tangible impact, it's not going to be a trade because trades are so difficult to make in this league. It's usually not going to be a call-up, although I like the philosophy behind what you were saying or coaching change. Oftentimes it's just your players that have the potential to play better need to just start executing better.

And this is where when I look at Nashville was already at a deficit when it came to dynamic play driving talent through the middle. But even looking at somebody like a Tommy Novak has been really disappointing. he's only got one assist and we know over the last couple of seasons when you watch and play what he can do as far as offensive own entries bringing speed offensive creativity and I think a lot of people were excited about okay what could Tommy Novak be now that he'll potentially have a sniper on his line

whether it's a Stamco's or a Marsha So and that could be a potentially dynamic duo but it just hasn't manifested and this is a player that was essentially relegated to a fourth line role in the playoffs another player that Andrew Brunette doesn't fully trust defensively thought that with the upgrades this might be a potential breakout year for him and instead of a breakout it's been the exact opposite. He hasn't even maintained the level that he showed last year's production is completely cratered.

So that's, I think, a big difference too where it's just further exposed, especially with O'Reilly looking a little bit slower this year. They just have no dynamic play-driving talent through the center ice position. Yeah, and you look there, you mentioned the kind of the strength of the central division they're in, they're already nine points back of third place Dallas. It's remarkable that Dallas with their roster and obviously

we know what they're capable of after the past couple postseason runs are third in the central. They're nine points back of them. Dallas has two games in hand on top of that against them. I think Dom has Nashville at 4% playoff probability right now, which just is incredibly bleak and it makes sense because you look and it's like not only

is it going to be tough to make up that many points but they're clearly not going to be one of the top three central teams. Then you look and even in the Pacific for how weak it is with Calgary playing the way they are LA kind of hanging around Edmonton's of course going to bounce back as well Seattle's been hanging around

there's just so many teams to leapfrog there that it's almost impossible to actually stack together that many points in a short period of time. I know we saw all the YouTube jokes right from last year and certainly Nashville showed that I guess theoretically they're capable of a magical run the way they were kind of around this time last year but I just don't really see it

with this group because there's been a couple of isolated games here or there where they have shown a glimpse offensively but for the most part we're going on a long enough sample here where it's like I'm just not sure that's in their range of outcomes right now and that's incredibly disappointing it doesn't help matters as well right I think if it's kind of like a scrappy team like they were last year and they were playing this way I don't think anyone from like a national perspective would really care or pay that much attention to it but it has a bit of this sort of like self-fulfilling prophecy where after they have the off-season they did or they spend

as much, everyone's talking about how they're the off-season winners, and then you start the year of the way it's going right now, and the whole just keeps digging deeper and deeper. It looks like it's manifesting itself in the games as well, right? Like, it's like, I don't know how you can be part of that team and not be sort of

aware of the way your team's being discussed and the way the season is being viewed, and so with each passing game, it just becomes a more and more uphill task for them to try to get out of it. Yeah, it's so unfortunate too because, I mean, it's easy for us to sort of talk about in hindsight, but even looking at the trajectory, Nashville was on. And this is a team that had an excess of not only draft picks, but also some intriguing prospects. Like, I'm really excited to see what Tanner Mollandike is going to be in the future, right?

What type of... Well, it's inexplicable that he's not on this team because you watch their defenseman play and it's like, all right, you're looking on the trade. market for a top four defenseman, maybe you should just let the young guy play who can definitely move and his skating ability would be a massive plus for a team that looks absolutely remarkably slow right now. And so it's baffling, but I just don't think they're that willing to go that route right now in terms of their roster construction and just like entrusting the young guys to do a lot of heavy lifting. Yeah. And the point I was going to make was I sort of felt like if they had just been patient that naturally this retool would have been headed in the right direction anyway with how

many picks and prospects that they had at their disposal, even if they wanted to leverage some of those draft picks and say, well, we want to salvage something out of this core with Yossi and Forzburg. We want them to have one last crack at things. Even if they were going to go down that route, I think they would have been much better off being patient and looking for opportunities where they could leverage some of those future assets for players actually in their prime, as opposed to some of these contracts that they signed that are now going to be problematic and are frankly just going to hold them back from building towards the future now. Meanwhile, you're still playing Matthew Shade and he's been one of Dallas's best players

and provides the exact dynamic offensive ability that this team is sorely lacking right now. So yeah, yeah, it's a pretty tough scene right now in Nashville. All right, Haram, we're going to get out of here. I wanted to get into bounce back candidates with you because I know that you wrote that up recently at the athletic. I'll let you plug that now here in a second. Hopefully next time we have you back on in a couple weeks, we can revisit that and get into it

and maybe update it with whatever we see around the NHL over the next couple weeks. Let the listeners know a little bit about that you wrote up and on other stuff you've been cranking out at the athletic. Yeah, it was really fun sort of diving into the best bounce back players from this year. Earlier this week, Chris Johnson and I did like a team Canada stock watch as far as who's trending up, who's trending down

in terms of their, odds of cracking some of those final roster spots. I'm super excited for Four Nations, obviously. And, yeah, just more fun national stuff on the way. Obviously, discussed the Pedersen TradeFit stuff with Josh Yohe to get the Pittsburgh perspective as well. It's a fun, exciting time of the year. Well, I know you included both of these guys in that stock watch.

I'm still trying to decide who I want to place all of my resources and push behind getting on the team because Brendan Hagel and Travis Kineckney I don't think there's going to be enough room for both of them. Yeah, that's... A bit of overlapping skill set there I think quite frankly both are good enough to be on that team.

I just think from a numbers game, it'll be tricky, but we've got to get at least one of those guys on, and I'm still trying to decide who to consolidate all my resources behind. Maybe the listeners can let us know, but I just love both guys and I think in that environment particularly both would just absolutely thrive. It's funny. I was working through the

through the Hagle part. And I was just thinking like, you want a pesky, just like forechecking, speedy disruptor who also has underrated offensive scale and has been a big time producer over the last year and a half.

Like he's a no-brainer. And then I look at Travis Connecting. I'm like, oh, they're basically going to be competing for the same job. And you can only have... We should just have them play one-on-one and fight to the duel.

Seriously. I was like, that was so disappointing to me because I was like, Brandon Hagle is a lock. I want, this is my guy. And then I was like, oh, but there's only room for one of him

in Connecticut Neal. Realistically. Yeah. All right. Well, I'm looking forward to tracking that and seeing how that unfolds harm. Have a great weekend. We'll have you on again here shortly. Thank you to the listeners for listening to us.

Hopefully you enjoy this absolutely hectic Friday here in the PDOCast. Thank you for your support and for listening. We'll be back on Sunday with our usual Sunday recap with Thomas Drans here in studios. Looking forward to that. In the meantime, have a great weekend. And thank you for listening to the HockeyPEDEO cast streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network.