The Hockey PDOcast - East vs. West, and Expected Goals vs. Actual Goals

Episode Date: January 18, 2023

Dom Luszczyszyn from The Athletic joins Dimitri to talk about the imbalance between the East and West, how and why expected goals are outpacing actual goals this season, and trying to quantify the trickle-down effect of injuries on a team's depth chart This podcast is produced by Dominic Sramaty.  The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Lessing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filipovich. Welcome to the Hockey Pee-Ocast. My name is Maitra Villepovich, and joining me is my good buddy, Dom, what's going on in? Not too much. How are you doing today?

I'm good. I mean, this was supposed to be a three-man show upon original conception and then our pal, Raupazola, for like the millionth time. Totally big time does. Apparently there's important stuff going on in the football world right now.

I don't know. I'm so in the weeds with the NHL right now and hockey that I don't know what else is going on, but apparently he's busy. So we'll have to check in with him in a later point. Yeah, he's always busy. It's the price he pay for following all the sports. That's right. Okay, I've got a couple topics here that I want to run by you and have a chat about and we'll have some fun with it. So here's the first one.

the east versus west so far this year and kind of the discrepancy between the quality of the two conferences so i was looking this up the two teams when when east teams play a west team this year in all the games they've played so far against each other this year the east has a plus hundred and fifteen goal differential against the west the top east teams in particular have just utterly just throttled every west team they've played right if you take new jersey boston Tampa Bay, Toronto, the Rangers and Carolina, the top six East teams. They have a 77, 22, and 16 record against the West, which comes out to like 125 point pace or something like that, which I guess is worse than what Boston is playing at right now. So take that for what it's worth. But yeah,

I think that's a pretty clear story so far this year in terms of the quality between the two and kind of how skewed and how lopsided it is towards the waist, towards the, towards the, East, especially up top where you could really make a case that like the five best teams in the league are all in the Eastern Conference, depending on your mileage on either the stars or the Golden Knights and what Mark Stone's back health is like moving forward. Yeah, I think with Ottawa's, so I know Ottawa's injuries this year, there hasn't been a true Western Conference powerhouse and right now top five teams and points percentage are all from the East. And my daily projections say the same thing.

It's Boston, Carolina, Toronto, New Jersey, and Tampa Bay. And the stats I was unaware of, but it makes my, it makes me feel a little sitting about where my model has things. Otango Tiger looks at my model on tweets some things that he finds. And one of the things he saw was the huge discrepancy in the Stanley Cup pods, where the East has a massive chunk of it. They currently have the four teams with the best odds, and there is the top West teams are topping out around 5%. And I just look now, and the odds of an Eastern team winning the Stanley

Cup this year is 68%, which seems absurd until you bring up that head-to-head record, and it doesn't feel as absurd now. It feels like the best teams really are out east. Yeah, I guess you're right. You could point out with the fact that I still think if you're going to project that Landiscault comes back for the playoffs, then the Chushkin's healthy, that the Byron and Manson come back as well for the avalanche and those guys appear to be come back up sooner than to Landiscaug. I think there's a case that we made that Colorado still should be the favorite.

It's tough. It kind of seems like more of a, it's a projection because we haven't, we saw them last year, but we haven't seen them really play any meaningful games together this season. And so it's tough to know, but at the same time, those guys are so good.

if you look ahead, like conceivably their path would be easier, right? Because all these East teams have to go up against each other and there's going to be just like some seven game bloodbaths, whereas for the most part of Colorado's healthy, you'd figure, you'd project them to have a smoother path to the Stanley Cup final than any of these individual East teams combined. Yeah, one of the issues with Colorado right now is that they aren't even a lock to make the playoffs. And so their lessened cup odds are a reflection of that. I currently have them at 73%. and it's hard to imagine a playoffs without the defending Stanley Cup champions,

especially a team as Dominos Colorado. But with their record right now and their lack of health and missing Landiscag all year, it's become a bit dicey because the West has nine teams that are really right in the thick of it. And one of them is, it feels like a game of musical chairs. I think Money Pub tweets something like that where there's nine teams with a pretty strong shot and one of them is going to be sitting out, and you probably don't think that's Colorado, but they aren't as safe as a team like Boston

or Toronto, Carolina, in the east. Yes. Another point that I had on the East-First West, I was looking at it, and Florida's had a lot of issues. So far this season, but I think a big issue for them is that they're, like, one of the only teams out east that haven't done well against the West. Like, for whatever reason,

they're 7, 10, and 3 in their games, and the only teams out east who are sub 500 in point percentage versus the West are them, the blue jackets and the senators. And so they've actually been okay against like the better teams in the league for whatever reason. They just haven't banked those not freebies, but easier points relatively speaking, that a lot of the teams ahead of them in the Atlantic have. And so for all the things that target talked about in terms of the coaching change and how like,

you know, the lack of depth and the goal tending and how less dangerous they look offensively, I think that that is something that doesn't really get talked about much, but really kind of stood out to me when I was looking at how some of these teams fared against the opposing conference. Yeah, Florida's been a weird one this year. Paul Maurice came out and said that they've got good analytics. Well, now he likes Anno. Yeah, now he likes them. Never use analytics as a catch-all, but their underlying numbers are pretty good. They just can't score on the power play and can't defend on the penalty kill. and they spend a lot of time there.

They do. It's kind of amusing because part of the thesis for how they approach this summer was, you know, we had the regulars in success. We kind of got exposed in the playoffs. So we need to change the identity of this team to become become more suited for the playoffs. And part of that was, you know, becoming more kind of chaotic and physical and chippy and all that. And you see, like, they get probably into the most, like, post-whistle scrums. of any team in the league, and that shouldn't be surprising,

considering Matthew Kuchuk plays significant minutes for them. But you're right. Part of that chaos is they don't really play very much at 5-1-5, and when your special teams are struggling the way it is, that kind of exposes or heightens otherwise wouldn't be that big of an issue. It becomes makes it kind of that much worse, or more magnified, I should say. Yeah, and their power play in particular should be better. I can completely understand if penalty killing is a weak spot,

with their goal tending and their defense and their general attitude to playing without the puck. But offensively, they have a lot of talent and they should be able to field a power play that is competent. It doesn't help when Paul and Reese is stuck in the year 2004 back when he was a good coach and putting a power play that uses three forwards and 2D on the top unit. But maybe they'll figure it out. Well, speaking of the analytics, you know, a big thing that I've been thinking about is how much their attack has changed with, you know, replacing Kachuk with, or Hubert O and and Uyghur with Kichuk and then Palmary's taking over as coach. And, you know, they're

generating the shots. They're generating the chances. But then Sportsnet during last night's Leafs game against the Panthers threw up an interesting graphic, but I believe it comes from Sporting logic because SportsNet uses Sport Logic's data. And it was like off the rush, the Panthers have scored like 25 fewer goals than they had at this point of this last season. And they've also giving up 25 more off the rush and they have? And it's like, wow, that is, I mean, part of that is personnel base, but also like, man, palberies, come on. Let's get it. Let's get it together here. Yeah, and I think that sort of, at least offensively plays into the wanting to be a lighter suited team for the playoffs where you don't want to depend on fire wagon hockey and

score up the rush because as we saw in their first round last year, they were completely slowed down by the capitals and didn't really have a lot of answer for the immediate. immediate playoff style and then against Tampa Bay they got absolutely decimated. They did. Well, speaking of the lightning and kind of bringing this full circle with talking about how top heavy the East is. So one of the byproducts of that is that we are in this weird, weird universe where Tampa Bay and Toronto are essentially a statistical lock to play each other in round one. I believe that your model has each of them as as 93% probability of finishing either second or third in the Atlantic Division, which would lock

them into that matchup. And we're halfway through the season. And I think that I'm curious to see what effect that is going to have on those two teams for the rest of the season. Like the Lightning in particular have only played 42 games so far, I believe. So they have 40 left. And I really wonder how we're going to see them play out the string here because those two teams are close enough where they're still competing for home ice advantage, I guess, although I don't think it necessarily matters that much in the grand scheme of things, as we saw last year in that matchup between those two teams,

in particular for the Lightning. I really don't think they care that much if they're starting the series at home or on the road. And so I wonder whether we're going to see serious load management shenanigans. We already saw the Leafs kind of do it a little bit with resting Matthews for a few games. I mean, honestly, both those teams should be doing it

as much as possible. Like, for the Lightning, you could argue they should put Victor Headman on ice for like the next two months and then just like slowly get him get him ready and fully functional for the playoffs because it just there's so little to gain for those two teams for these final 40 games or so and that's kind of a problem because there's so many so many games left on the schedule but it's kind of the reality of the outlook for both them yeah as someone who lives in Toronto and has an enjoyment of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

It is very comforting to know that they are just locked in to another matchup against the Lightning. And yeah, what could go wrong? They played well in last year's series, but well, wasn't good enough. So right now you got like 40 games of practice to figure out how to beat that one opponent, but they Tampa Bay Lightning also have that. So it is, I think, nice for both of them that they have months and months. months of prep to figure out each team's strengths and weaknesses. But yeah, I think load management

is going to be, or at least should be a big thing for both teams because missing a key impact player for that series could be the difference. Last year, the Leaps didn't have a fully healthy Michael Bunting and that is something that's going to hurt for a team that's very top-heavy. Tampa Bay didn't have brain point for most of game seven, although that didn't really matter for them, but it's going to be, it's better to come into that series fully healthy than miss a guy for playing some meaningless hockey. What a glow-up for Michael Bunting. There are two key stars missing in that series, Braden Boyne and Michael Bunting.

Equal. Well, I mean, not equal, but Michael Bunting. I know what you're more in player for sure. Well, no, I mean, you know, that ties into what I want to talk about next, which is what the Leafs are going to do approaching the deadline. That's a big topic of conversation. right and there's this disparity that I've been talking about all podcasts where if you go on any kind of like national TV show or whatever it's like oh what defensemen are they going to acquire

and then you actually watch them play or think about it logically it's like how is that the target here like it's it's so clearly a scoring left winger and for some reason yeah that just gets crossed over because all of our priors are that this team is bad defensively but then you look in all situations they give up the fifth few of shots ninth few is high injury chances third few as expected goals, seventh fewest goals against. Like, you take those numbers, you strip away the name, the logo, the, you know, the priors, and no one is wondering whether this team should acquire a defenseman or what, if they're good enough from a team defense perspective. And then you look at the left-wing depth chart, and it's the aforementioned Michael Bunting, Calli Yarn Croke, Bobby

McMahon, and Zach Asden Reese. And it's like, hmm, I wonder which one of these should be the focus for this team in terms of having one big shot to really improve their roster. Yeah, I mean, I, I, feel like it's just like a thing every year that the Leaps need defense and it is so far removed from reality right now. The Leifes have nine NHL defensemen. What do you what do you want them to do get a 10th? One of them is hurt but the way Muzin was playing honestly doesn't probably doesn't really matter the way they've internally replaced that with Mark Chirano. The two kids, Sandine and Lilgrin, have been amazing. They the only way the Leif's defense improves is if they somehow, trade Morgan Riley for an actual elite number one defenseman and that's not going to happen.

So you got to work with the depth that they have, which is I think one of the deepest blue lines in the league. It's lacking that top end star, but from one to six, there aren't many teams that can put out what the Leaps do. And it's not the same upfront where the Leaps really have five guys who are absolute studs. Four of them are two of them are superstars. William Nealander is on the cost, Tibera's is still amazing, and then Bunting is a great utility player for those superstars, and they're missing one more guy for the top six, and maybe somehow Matthew Nyes comes in and is this superstar scoring player right off the bat, but you don't want to bet on that. You want to get someone who is proven and can play in that role, and maybe get that advantage

from Nye somewhere lowering the lineup. Yeah. Yeah, well, I think there's two things that could pretty clearly do to significantly improve their outlook in a series against the lightning. And one is very doable in terms of going out and adding a scoring winger, especially one who can play with speed. Because if you watch that series against the lightning last year, that was the one thing that they could really exploit the lightning with, especially earlier in the series, where the speed advantage was just huge for them and they were kind of giving them fits in that regard. and then the other would be finding a way to use Morgan Riley more properly and not as premium over a high leverage of a 5-on-5 rule. I don't know if that one is as attainable because of how much they're paying him

and sort of his stature in terms of name-brand value. So I think if you kind of identify those as you two big weaknesses, one of them you could probably fix internally in terms of just the way you utilize your defensemen. But the other one is getting a scoring winger is almost a must. Yeah, yeah, that is the definitely. top need for the Leafs and I like it's so glaringly obvious that I just don't understand how you get to any other conclusion. Probably by just not watching the team over the past year and a half and just going with the same old talking points. Do you have a name that interests you the most in terms of fill in that knee that is

you know doable? Doable is is hard I think because it seems like Like every top team doesn't have any cap space whatsoever. I wonder what the connects to with Kuzmenko. I wonder what the cost is for Timomeyer from San Jose, probably way too much. I feel like the Leafs are linked to Patrick Canelon. That seems like the likeliest, although I don't understand how the finances work there.

But those three seem to be like the biggest targets. And I think they would all help in their own various ways, obviously three different players, but I think those would have got, it would be the most impactful. Yeah. Well, it's interesting because it seems like by all accounts, the Canucks are focusing on siding Kuzmico for some reason instead of Tri-M. I guess a way to get creative potentially. Like I've seen a lot of Ryan O'Reilly suggestions. I don't think that makes a ton of sense.

I'm actually more interested potentially if you want to stick with the Canucks here, acquiring both Horbat and then bumping John Tavares to his left wing and kind of having two birds with one stone, but it helps you achieve what you're trying to accomplish in a sense. One issue for that for me is so much of Horvats' utility or value is on the PowerPoint, and I'm not sure how much that moves the needle for the sleeves team as currently constructed. like you probably wouldn't even be on the top unit or you could be certainly fine away from but it's like it wouldn't move the needle that much whereas if you think about him for a team like

Minnesota or even Carolina it's like all right this makes a lot more sense because he actually fills such a massive need as opposed to kind of being more of a luxury item for this for this leaps for a group yeah um I think the least really you need to think long and hard about getting someone who can really drive things at five on five I am really worried about getting ride O'Reilly based on how much he's declined this year, the miles on his body, the fact that he is currently injured. It just feels like Nick Filino 2.0, and it would feel like a lesson just not learned from that experience. And it would be a disappointing get, especially considering how much Ryan O'Reilly probably costs on the market. Yeah, I think he's certainly a more useful player

than Felino was when they required them, but yeah, your point in the sense that I think the what you think of when you hear the name Ryan O'Reilly kind of exceeds what he's actually probably bringing to the table, especially for what they need. So it doesn't make sense to pay a premium for that. You know, I think Meyer, I've talked about how I want him on the Devils.

I think similarly for the Leafs, though, like, this is the time to go for it. And I think what's not talked about as much with Meyer is like, you know, part of the appeal for the devils would be that because of the Jack Hughes contract they have and what a competitive advantage that provides for them, they could really ring in Meyer for this season and then extend him long term

and have him basically be Jack Hughes's winger for the next five, six years, and have those guys just clean up together. The Leafs, that wouldn't really be an option based on what I think Meyer will be able to fetch on the open market. That's similar to what the Wilde did with Fiala last year, do you think there's a case to be made where you could use him for this playoff run?

And then I know the $10 million qualifying offer is a bit complicating, but you still maintain his rights. And I really feel like you could probably get 50% at least, maybe 75% of what you paid for initially for him on the trade market for even a year of him if you move on. Like look at what Alex DeBrenka just got, for example, this past summer. I really feel like you don't necessarily need to view it as a long-term option. It can be just a pure rental with the idea that you're trading him this summer and whatever team signs and then, I think. Yeah, it would be, a very creative way of going about it.

But he does feel like a perfect fit. He probably feels like a better fit for the Devils for sure. But if I'm thinking of guys who are probably available, in terms of a left winger that can score, and I think Meyer is that kind of guy, I did see a lot of tweets from Devils fans talking about the Meyer Heeshire chemistry from, I think the World Championships maybe.

So maybe he'd be a Heeshire winner more than a Hughes winger. but I still like they got two fantastic options if you're the devils in terms of who play mire with so it doesn't really matter yeah bring in you don't need a rider too you just get the get the whole crew together yeah um yeah no I mean stylistically it makes so much sense for the Leafs as well because he really would um move the needle in terms of like 5-15 he'd be able to be a creator but also he has the speed but also playing against the lightning in round one he's like physical enough to fight through all the obstruction that you're that you're clearly going to see as well right and I do think that is that that type of rare uh player is is very rare like I got like Tyler Bertuzzi I've seen LinkedIn Leafs and it's like he does a bit of that but doesn't really have like the foot speed or the ability to burn you off the rush in that way and and so that's kind of a limiting factor for me in that regard and and that's clearly why like he's an inferior player it's Meyer of course but I think what you're looking for Meyer checks way more boxes yeah yeah I think so Bertuzzi's a

good, I think, budget option, but is he even allowed to play in Canada? He is. He is now, yeah. Okay. I don't know what the rules were. Yeah, he is. Okay. Well, that's all I had on the leaves. Do you have any other, I'm kind of curious for your take. Do you have any other bull warbat favorite landing spots, if not, like the leaves? I know I've mentioned the wild there. I'm not sure how much that makes sense for them in terms of, you know, how tight up against the cap they already are and how desperately they need to keep all the cheap young contributors that they can and the Knox are looking for that in return but I'm kind of curious if you have

any other interesting places you'd like to see him land in particular um I'm looking at a some depth charts now and I I do wonder about whether the the rivalry play a role but maybe the Seattle Cracken hmm yeah yeah that'd be nice I mean Seattle's current most used forward for some reason is Alex Wendberg. And I think if you just swap Wendberg for Horebat in terms of not like I actually trade them, but like make a more bat your most used forward, I think that is a huge step up. And I think with the West being so wide open, it's like, why not? Why not go for it and bolster your center depth a bit?

and I think Beniers, Gord, Horvatt, Wenberg is pretty solid. Yeah, that would be spicy. I would certainly like that. I also like Seattle strategy of just fully embracing everything going right for them

and just acquiring as many as many high-end shooting percentage guys as they can and really just trying to break every statistical model in that regard. Yeah, I don't know. Yeah.

I keep coming back. I just, I don't know if Carolina would want to pay the price it would take to acquire them, and it's not really like their, their MO and certainly not for an impending UFA. But man, you look at them.

They're 25th on the power play in terms of goals per hour. And they're set in terms of Aho as the 1C and then George Stahl is the matchup center. But are you really going to go into another postseason here as a legitimate contender with like some combination of Paul Stasney, Derek Stepan, and Yesperi Kokkinemi as for all intensive purposes your second center? Like for me, that's something that I would really be considering

if I were them, you could kind of check so many boxes for what they need and kind of what they already are. Yeah, I feel like getting patch ready will probably improve their power play. I think he gives them a scoring option there, but Horvatt, that's part of his bread and butter, and I think it makes so much sense with the glaring need Carolina has at 2C, because I like Jordan Stahl's defense. I just don't think he has the offense to play that role. Kotkinemi, I mean, I still just don't see it with him. Well, certainly not offensively. No.

He's provided some nice defensive utility. It's in, like, one of the easiest roles in the team. Like, I don't know. They're clearly, like, buying time and sheltering him a bit, but I don't know. I'm still a Kotkinemi skeptic for sure. Yeah. Yeah, I did that would be a massive improvement. improvement format. They're able to get something like quarterback. It would kind of allow everything else

to fall into place. Okay, Dom, we're going to take a quick break here. And then we come back. We're going to talk about a variety of other topics. You are listening to the Hockey PDO guest on the Sports Night Radio Network. We're back here on the Hockeypedio guest with our pal Dom. Dom, the next thing I wanted to talk to you with or talk about with you is something I've been tracking all year. And it's this growing chasm between actual goals being scored at 515 and the expected goals, totals that we have being registered. And the reason why it's interesting to me is because it represents a significant change and kind of landscape from years past, where this year there have been like 110 fewer

goals scored at 515 than expected goals, which is like a total flip from the past three years where each season it was like 200 extra goals were being scored. And expected goals, what part of the issue with a lot of the models was, they were clearly like underestimating what was going on and so it was tough to know what to make of it and how much to actually value it and this year it's totally flipped on your head and I was kind of curious if you've noticed that and sort of what your your working theories are for what's going on there and kind of how we adjust for that because the big talk is wow like you know production is through the roof offense through everyone's scoring goals and they certainly are but at five-on-five

it's it's been a clear change from where it's been in previous years yeah one of the adjustments I make in the model is to always make goals and expect your goals equal for goalies. Because there'll be years where there'll be like, I think, 30 goalies who are saving more than expected when that's probably not how it should be. It's just a year like that. And this year, it's, it is the opposite. And it's a huge, huge jump. I'm on evolving hockey and I'm seeing it's like 2.6 for expected goals per 60. And it was only a while ago that we were averaging 2.2 per year, 2.3 per year. Last year we saw a huge jump.

And this year it's an even bigger jump. And I honestly, I don't have many working theories. I wonder how much analytics plays a role in terms of, I guess, strategies for teams and whether we're seeing this push for offense more in vain with what we've been studying over like the last five or so years. Yeah. Honestly, it's one of the things that I have noticed, but I am not sure of what's happening

because it's not like those extra chances are going in either. It's the goalies are saving a lot more than expected this year compared to years past, and it's been a strange thing for sure. Right, while say percentage is around the league are plummeting. So it's kind of this weird dichotomy. Yeah, I think my working theory is just, it's a, It reflects like a massive change in offensive approach. And you're right, kind of that optimization where teams have done a lot of work

in recognizing what flies and what doesn't in today's game and trying to act accordingly in terms of what their offensive approach is, right? Like you look generally, I feel like teams for the most part are using up fewer point shots. They're trying to get the puck to the middle lies. They're trying to focus on stuff that we know increases likelihood of scoring. And so I think that's part of it. But it is interesting to consider because we talk so often about, oh, like shooting talent is better than ever and all this stuff.

And I do think it is. But the numbers don't really reflect that. Because if that was the case, it would kind of, you would think it would be the opposite. It would be similar to the patterns that we've seen in the past couple years instead. Yeah, I think when people think of shooting talent in this vein, I think it might just be the ability to generate offense rather than actually being able to finish. I think one of the, I think it's even more interesting on the power play. We're seeing these huge spikes in power play scoring and the expected goals numbers there are even wilder.

For the longest time, it was like 6.5 expect of goals per 60 last year jumped from 6.6 to 7.4. And this year we're at 8.3, which is absurd. And the scoring rate has followed to an extent, but not, again, not all the way where goalies are again saving a fit more than expected. And I think power plays are a thing that a lot of teams are focusing on more and optimizing more. And I think that's, that might be a thing where we see exactly what you're saying, where teams are focusing on the higher value shots more than they ever have before. And also just getting more shots and creating more chaos on the power play to up their chance rate. Yeah. Well, another thing I noticed was at three on three though.

There's been 88 goals scored on 38 expected goals for the offense, which also suggests to be that one of my contentions with a lot of the public models is I don't think we properly value rush shots and especially like high-dangered ones where it's like a two-on-one and you're passing it across and the goalie is having to move laterally and contest that. And that's pretty much all you see it. Three-on-three for the most part, I know people have been complaining that coaches have finally sunk their claws into three-on-three play. And for the most part, we don't see those exciting high octane back and forth shootouts in three-on-three that we used to see in the first couple years it came around. But still, like, it's the amount of goals being scored compared to what

the models are reflecting is about as wide of a disparity as you're going to see. Yeah, it is very telling for what kind of data we are missing. And Camp Sharon had a thread, I think earlier in the year about how just the how the importance of goals percentage has increased over the last few years and I went to look at that myself expecting it to be on the offensive end and one of the very strange things I found was that it was a lot on the defensive end where somehow the last three to five years

using player goals against is more predictive than using their expected goals against, especially if you have a larger data set where if you look at a player's goals against for the last three years or something, it's more predictive of future goals against than expect your goals, which is a complete reversal from the past decade of research we had where there was a reason we looked at course against. There was a reason we looked at expect goals against against. And it's because goals against numbers were noisy. They were at the whim of the goaltender you're in front of, right? But I think in recent, years because shot quality has changed so much and everyone is becoming better at offense and

the role of a defenseman has changed where you want to be able to move the puck and these big bruising guys aren't as much art as highly sought after you're getting this thing where goals against is still a very noisy stat but it is it has more value than a lot of people give it credit for now yeah yeah it is unless you're patrice bergeron in which case You're just consistently the absolute goat and everything across the board defensively. I don't know how he does it, but it's a sight to behold. Yeah. No, that's really interesting.

I hadn't thought about that relationship. That certainly does fly counter to the way we used to think about it, whereas you could almost just completely throw away goals against numbers. Like they were descriptive in terms of that year, I guess, because it literally tells you how many goals you were on the ice for that were going into your own net, But that you're totally at the whims of the on IC percentage, which is much more predictive. And so that really runs counter basically what you're saying. Yeah, it's one of the most shocking things I have discovered in recent years.

And yeah, I didn't expect it. But it means that really it's just not daddy you want to throw away. You want to look at things. So I remember when I looked at this originally, I think the most. interesting thing was the devil's defense, where in terms of expected goals, their best defensive defense is Yonah Seganthaler. And for goals against, it's John Marino. And the coaches use John Marino in the heavier minutes, and he does well in those minutes. I think there is a reason for that. Coaches aren't stupid. They know what they have in terms of their players, and

I think there needs to be a balance between the two numbers where you want to look at both and give credit to Stigandthal for limiting chances but also give credit to Marino for being able to defend some more dangerous chances that have maybe a higher probability of going in than XG maybe gives credit for. Okay, one final topic here

is actually a question from a listener and I feel bad because I can't find the original question anymore like I had to jot it down in my notes for this podcast, but I can't find who sent it to me. So I apologize for not being able to attribute it properly if this is your question. Well done. And thank you for sending it in.

But it essentially raised the point of like with modeling how to quantify the trickle down effect of injuries and what they have on our expectations for a team based on how they impact their depth chart. And so the logic is, you know, typically when a key player gets hurt and misses time, a lot of our focus is around their individual absence, their production, what's stripping that from the lineup, right? So, okay, this is one of their key scorers. They're not going to have that guy around.

But then there's this trickle-down effect where, all right, all of a sudden, with that guy out, now a secondary player who is playing down lower on the depth chart typically has to bump up in that role, and maybe they're becoming more stretched in and they're not suited for that. So, you know, their production is going to come down, but also the guys around them aren't going to benefit from that star being there anymore. And then even further, all of a sudden now, you have to fill that original role that that secondary player was in, right? So if they were a third liner before, now they're playing on the second line.

Okay, now you're bumping up a fourth liner or potentially even calling up someone from the HL to come in and play that role. And so it doesn't always work this way because sometimes players are buried on a depth chart and then all they need is an opportunity. And then they come up and produce and you're like, wow, this guy should have been playing higher all along. And it's a nice little surprise and kind of like a hidden gem. but to your point of like oh coaches typically know or have a feel for their team it's a dangerous game and there's sort of this like a cascading effect right

and so I'm kind of curious for your take on that in terms of the modeling when like if you strip out a player like let's say let's say Valerie Atchuskin who missed a bunch of time for the abs and then all of a sudden someone has to play in his role how you sort of compensate or account for all of those moving cards I don't and that's probably wrong

it's a very tricky question I think for one guy out it probably won't be a huge effect if the avalanche are fully healthy and Ntushkin is out you can probably just take his value out slide a new guy in

rearrange some ice time and call it a day I think when you have the massive issues that the avalanche have had it becomes a much trickier question that I don't think we currently have a real grasp on because I think quality of competition and teammates is still something that the community I don't think it's figured out perfectly I think it's become more accepted that those two things matter and that quality teammates matter a lot as well but I think the burden of moving up the lineup is still underrepresented. And I think the other thing that comes with these big injuries is that you then have

someone like Miko Randon playing 24 minutes a night and he's not going to be as effective eating those minutes either. And for my purposes, I calculate everyone's ability on a permanent basis. So Miko Randon playing 24 minutes of night means that he's going to produce more value when in reality it might be less efficient. Yeah. So it is a, uh, a tough thing to model and I have always been curious about the effects of going from 18 minutes to 22 minutes and how that affects a player's efficiency and total output but it's not something I have the an answer to which is I think definitely a model drawback and I think it's a drawback for for every current model because I don't think anyone really has looked into that yeah I would guess

that there is probably sort of like a a threat to shoulder or a baseline and then if you pass that all of a sudden you're really depleting the efficiency right like if you're having a play as you mentioned like and there's nights where rantinganin was playing like the uh the ilya koblchuk special from his prime where it was like miko rantan and played 29 and a half minutes in a regulation game tonight like what on earth and it's because they didn't have anyone obviously but you can't expect miko rantinganin to be as efficient playing 29 minutes because there's he literally has a certain amount of energy he's used to playing a certain amount of minutes and all of a sudden you're stretching them incredible

thin. And so I think that's a good point. You know, you mentioned the, that is also an interesting debate in terms of quality of competition versus teammate because, you know, something that we've come around on quite a bit is, is quality of teammates is almost just as important, if not more than competition. And I guess that would be a counter to this where all of a sudden, if you're a player playing on the fourth line with kind of like traditional veteran grinder, fourth line types, and then all of a sudden you get to play in a scoring role, like your life will be probably significantly easier because you're in theory playing with better players around you so i guess that is something to consider here as well in terms of like the that that that risk reward or that the pros and cons of

moving up and down the lineup yeah but like at the same time like it might help offensively but then defensively you you end up giving it right back the other way so is there's a lot of checks and balances there and it's a very nuanced question that i think we we don't have the answers for it's something I wanted to look into. I just haven't had the time this year yet to fully dive in. Right. Well, so, like, as an example, what, like, because we've talked about this before, so let's say that Connor McDavid was missing a game when you were doing, like,

the daily projections, like, what, what percent would just stripping a Connor McDavid from the Oilers move, move the team down in terms of, like, their outlook for that individual game, like, how much of an impact would have? because I remember being like pretty surprised in the grand scheme of things where individual players weren't worth nearly as much. Like statistically from the model as you'd think just based on like watching it like, wow, they don't have their best player. They're going to be screwed. But in reality, numbers didn't really reflect that. Yeah.

So I McDavid has best player in the league, obviously. And he would be around a five and a half to six percent drop. So if the Oilers were 60 percent favorites, they would drop to 54 percent favorites without. McDavid. And I agree like that seems pretty small. And I think that's because it doesn't really take into account that McDavid plays 22 minutes a night and he plays them at a McDavid level. And that's something that's going to be very hard to redistribute. And obviously they have Leon Drysidal who can step in and be the guy to not the same McDavid level, but to some degree. And he, there is a bit of that

thing where players step up when a good player is out but I don't know it's it's definitely a complicated domino effect okay well hopefully we answer that for the listener as best we could it's a really really like got the wheels spinning but it's

a tricky one to put a number two okay well I should say one final thing here I said that was going to be the final thing but we still got a bit more time so we just at EPIR ring side, myself and the rest of the staff just did our latest kind of a ballad or awards. And I was asked to put together my top five in every category, which was just painstaking. Because I feel like top three is like, it is nice. Top five.

You're like, okay, I have to include all these other guys. Is it, you know, trying to make it all work and everyone fit in that you want and give them credit. You do the awards watch for you athletic. You did it about a week ago or so I think, and I was looking at your most recent one. What was the biggest surprise to you in terms of like when you were putting together when you're writing it up, like either a rise or fall or someone where you're like, oh, well, when I enter this exercise, I didn't think they'd be nearly this high.

I wasn't too surprised because it's like their numbers that I'm looking at daily. I guess in terms of like general surprise, I am a little shock that Hamphus Lindholm is sticking around near the top of the league just because I figured once Charlie McAvoy came back, he'd be the one shining. but Lindholm is still playing at this incredibly elite rate, and it was a bit of a surprise to see him that high, and I think he deserves a lot of credit for how much defensive value he brings the team. The other one was Brady Shea, who has been a model whipping boy for many years,

and now he's sitting in the top ten. It's just a very strange place for him to be. I just never expected it to be like that, And that is probably a quality of competition thing where he's playing on his second pair. He's not Jacob Slavin. But what he's doing in that role has been pretty incredible. Yeah, I wasn't too surprised. I think having Tage Thompson solo was a bit of a shock.

But, I mean, it makes sense. He's not exactly a defensive stalled. Yeah, the defensive metrics are bad. Yeah. But he's so fun that you want him to be higher. You just, you wish he was, you wish he was higher and you're sad that he's not, but. Well, he's been incredible offensively and certainly like the breakout from like a highlights perspective, but you're right. Like not only the defensive metrics, but you look at the offensive infrastructure around him, right?

And I think Alex Tuck is having a phenomenal season. Like Rasmus Dahlian's probably got to be top three, definitely top five on the Norris. Owen Power is second on my, on my calder list. So it's like, on the one hand, he's putting up ridiculous. goal totals and offensive numbers in general. But on the other hand, like, they're playing such an offensively

friendly or conducive style and environment and giving a lot back themselves. So it makes sense that when you look at the overall value, you would drop a little bit, especially like when you're nitpicking compared to like the best five or six players in the league. Yeah, and that's, that is what we're doing when in terms of award watch.

It's not like we're saying, hey, this guy stinks. It's, is he doing it enough to be the ambitimate, the MVP and when that happens, when you're having those conversations, there are things you've got to think about that maybe make him a little less than perfect because Tage Thompson is a perfect human being, a perfect player, love him so much, but defensively he does have warts and that's going to knock him down a peg compared to maybe someone like Jack Hughes or Jason Robertson where their 5-on-5 impact at both ends of the ice has been

pretty incredible. Yeah, I was looking at your Selke, speaking of defensive metrics, and I love the Selke every year because obviously our ability to quantify defense is very up in the air right now, but it's an award that I think people just generally refer to their priors every year, right? It's like, all right, there's five guys who are eligible, and we're just going to bring that back without actually looking at what their numbers are like right now. And it's strange to me that, like when I was putting together my list, I had Jordan Stahl third, I believe, because his defensive metrics are essentially like identical

to Patrice Bergeron this year. Yeah. And he gets used even more. Now, like the quality of competition is a bit less. But he, for whatever reason, has been left out of that shuffle. Like you had a note in there where he hasn't really been recognized for his defensive value in a long time on Monsalke ballots. And even though, like, you know, you watch what he did last year in that matchup where it was

whenever the Keynes were playing the Bruins in round one, it was like whoever at home I was going to win because it ultimately depended on who Jordan Stahl was going to be able to play against and when they played in Carolina, they were able to use them to just shut down the Bruins' top line. And he, for some reason, does not get nearly the credit. I know that the Hurricanes as a team

have this defensive identity and defensive infrastructure, but he's been so awesome. So I was excited to see that the ear model was kind of recognizing him for that. Yeah, I really do think he should be getting a lot of credit for how strong Carolina is as a defensive team and his role in that.

I think part of the issue is that Selke voters sometimes use a two-way award and offensively he's got 19 points in 43 games. So it's hard to get a lot of love for that award if you're not, I guess, a top guy the other way.

And that's also kind of what makes Bergeron such an easy pick is that his defensive value is top of league, but he's also so strong offensively, and I mean, this should just rename the award after him, but I would love to see Stahl get a nomination this year. Yep. All right, man.

Well, this is a blast. I'm glad we got to do this. I'll let you promote some stuff. What I'm wearing people check you out and what are you got in the works? You can find me at The Athletic, where I write a bunch of analytically inclined stuff. In terms of things in the works, we have a player tiers refresh coming up.

So at the start of the other year, we rank the top 100 players and put them into tiers because ranking players is a bit of a fool's errand and you don't want to split hairs in that way and better to just group players together. So we have a refresh on that coming up of where we think the top 100 is now, what guys are in, what guys are out, who's rising, who's following, that sort of thing. And I think one of the interesting things about the list is that it was still hard to put members of the Seattle Cracken on it. And it was sort of funny we joked about the next 100, the 100 to 200,

and how dominated that would be by Seattle Cracken. I think that's an interesting idea to explore. So I'm going to be doing something along those lines next week. I love that. I'm sure people are going to react to that list, which is in general very rationally and not get upset about it at all. So always. That's always what happens.

I love it. The only thing I have to promote is that I just wanted to make it clear that you and I are two different people. I love when you say something spicy and then someone just like comments on one of my tweets. And it's like, I can't believe that most cider tweet you did. And I'm like, what? That wasn't me. And then I'm like, oh, it was probably dumb. And then I go on your page and I see you said something.

I'm like, okay. I understand the one letter difference dim and dumb, but it's just wanted to promote that as my sign out here. All right, man. Well, this is a blast. We'll definitely have you back on soon. Hopefully next time, we'll do once the football season's over and we'll get Pazola on with us and we'll bounce around the league and do a bunch of stuff. In the meantime, thank you for listening to the PDO cast and we'll be back tomorrow with more of the show here on the Sportsnet Radio Network.