The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 102: The Curious Case of Jacob Trouba

Episode Date: September 28, 2016

Garret Hohl joins the show to discuss a wide array of Winnipeg Jets-centric topics including Jacob Trouba's trade demands, Ondrej Pavelec once again figuring to be the downfall of the team, and what we can reasonably expect from Patrik Laine in his first season. Here’s a quick rundown of the topics covered: 2:38 Jacob Trouba's performance to-date 5:20 The problem with evaluations using box car stats 10:10 Logical trading partners for the Jets 14:00 Winnipeg's bizarre infatuation with Ondrej Pavelec 21:30 The Patrik Laine hype train 27:05 Optimizing your bottom-6 forward group 29:45 Tracking stats in the AHL This episode is brought to you by Freshbooks, an online accounting service designed to save time and help avoid all of the stresses that come with running a small business. They’re currently offering a free 30-day trial to listeners of our show at Freshbooks.com/PDOcast (just remember to enter “Hockey PDOcast” in the ‘How You Heard About Us’ section). Every episode of this podcast is available on iTunes, Soundcloud, Stitcher and can also be streamed right here on the website. Make sure subscribe so that you don’t miss out on any new shows as they’re released, and also take a minute to leave a glowing review. Thanks for listening! See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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and joining me sitting right across from me in my living room is a man who, I guess you could say you wear many different hats. Too many. Too many hats. So I actually have to write it down here. I don't generally do a lot of notes for the show, but you have so many different jobs that I actually have to write them down just to keep track. So you're on hockey graph still.

Yes. You're the CTO of hockey data. Yes. And Jets Nation for another couple days until you hand over the reins for that day. Man, that's a lot of stuff. And then you also part of ten sometimes. I do bartend. Are you still in school?

No, I'm officially done. Well, there we go. At least you're kind of lightening a load a little bit. I remember for a while there we'd like hang out at Canucks Army meetups and stuff and you'd be like listing off all the things you were doing. Too many things. Yeah. I'm going to need another round so I can get through this one.

I think that most people probably know you as the guy that spends an insane amount of time arguing about Mark Stewart online though. Yes. That or Andre Pavlik. Yes. Well, at least Andre Pavlik one is like defensible just because people. Like, it's crazy because I wouldn't have even known that, I know people on the internet sometimes have outlandish opinions, but I wouldn't have even known that Mark Stewart had so many, such a loyal fan base if you didn't, like, retweet people into my timeline. Yeah, I, it's kind of weird.

I mean, everyone has their own, in my opinion, like, first thing off is, like, sports is a outlet, it's entertainment and anyone can enjoy any player. I mean, we all have our own favorite players who statistically aren't great. their fourth line or third pairing guys and it's just like who you like just like you just have an emotional attachment for whatever it is emotions or emotions but how good a player is not dependent on your emotions for that player and that's that's what kind of confuses me like i always remember um nchel 2012 or 2013 one of them uh it had mark stewart as the second best defender overall rating i thought that was great well i think i listen i i i'm the same way in in all different sports. I have guys I just like for whatever reason and I can acknowledge that they're probably

not as good as I'd like them to be but I still enjoy them for whatever reason. But I would, I guess it's like just a different type of way a person's wired to go online and like argue with strangers. Like I would never like go and be like, no, you're like you're an idiot. Like Mark Stewart is actually really good. Like that be I don't know. Cool buddy. Yeah. All right. If you say so. Yes. No, but if you say so. Um, all right. Let's, uh, there's an alpenter room. I feel like we should just get Jacob Truba stuff out of the way so we can move on to other fun topics. Bye elephant. So I know you're a pretty big Jacob Trouva fan.

Huge. Even prior to him being a Jets guy. So my biasesism existed even before then. Right. And I got to say I'm a pretty big fan myself. I think that, I don't know, I remember, like, right before his draft, I think there were some, like, a divisive opinion on in terms of, like, what his upside was or maybe what his offensive upside was.

but then I remember that one year in his freshman year he just killed it in Michigan and I feel like his stock skyrocketed ever since. I believe pre-draft Craig Button aligned him towards the next Adam foot. It's great defensive game but no offense. Yeah, yeah, but I think even someone like Corey Pronger, for example, was like a little bit skeptical.

I'm not sure it was a few years ago now, so I don't mean to be misquoting quote. No, no, no. I believe you're right. I could be wrong also, but my finicky but not actually proven memories remembering something similar to you. Yeah, they never really thought of him as having much offensive upside,

not being on the power play kind of thing, but a good first, second pairing guy who could shut down or whatever, which I thought was weird because, I mean, he was a pretty successful score even in the USHL for the U.S. National Development Team program, even prior. And then you watch him now, and it's like, it's pretty clear that he has the offensive instinct. I mean, he's never going to be like a Dustin Bufflin,

but he has some offense. Well, none of us will ever be a Dustin Buflin. won't ever be a Dustin book. Okay, so there's two ways to handle us. One is like, we just went through this with Jonathan Druin, and I feel like it was, I don't know, would you say that situation was, it was probably even more contentious than this one, right? Like, do you think this one's been kind of bubbling into the surface for a long? It's different.

Well, because Drewan, I mean, he was sent down to the H.L. He was under contract. So things are little, the situations are a little bit different. Jacob True was not under contract, which is hilarious sometimes to see, like, again, Again, coming back to the emotional side, emotions, you can feel rejected as much as you want. That's your own prerogative. But I do find it interesting when people are treating him as if he's a Jets employee because technically he's not assigned to anyone. Right.

Well, I mean they retain his rights, though. Yeah. But that's true. Like any company can retain your rights doesn't mean you work for them. Right. Well, I saw you did some hard-hitting reporting, noting that his brother's LinkedIn page also. Oh, yes. That was, I mean.

Now you're working the angles that no one else is. even Bob McKenzie didn't think to look that way. That was partially goofy. But here's the thing with Trubo. Like, I think that I know you've written about this that if you just like pulled up his boxcar stats, you're like, well, what's, what's that? He's not as good. It's like here. Obviously he's like a 22-year-old defenseman that's playing in the NHL and that's impressive in and of itself.

But I mean, you look at his counting stats, like, all right, I guess he's like a second, third-paring guy. But then you actually dig a little deeper and you realize that he's pretty much spent what, like, 60% or so of his 5-15 time with Mark Stewart, who we just talked about for five minutes, is not being very good at hockey. Yes. Jacob Truba has this one statistic that I quite enjoy, being the only defenseman to play major minutes with Mark Stewart to be in the positive coursey percentage with him. And that includes prime time Zedano Chara.

Yeah. That's a pretty good stuff. I mean, who knows how much meaning you can glean for that, but it's, I find it interesting. Well, I mean, it is, it is, you know, it's pretty kind of dry when you look at, like, So, yeah, 2,000 of his 3,500 or so minutes were with Mark Stewart. And basically, as soon as you detach him from that anchor, like, his goals and his shot metrics all just skyrocketed. And he's like, looks like an amazing world beater. I believe, don't tell me about Hart, his war model, which is still in progress.

Which is the reason why he has people are like, oh, why I'm in release it? It's not done. It's mostly dependent on, it's pretty much a usage-adjusted coursey percentage, I guess, in many ways. with some shot quality factors added to it and it puts him in the top 5 percentile in terms of outshooting opponents that doesn't mean he's in the top 5 percentile of best defensemen but he's having a huge impact on the game

despite playing with something that should be causing you know it to anchor his numbers right and the one thing that that has enough impact on is it will anchor his numbers in an you know like in the advanced stats way that we talk about but also anchors his numbers as opposed to like his gold differentials

and his individual scoring numbers which is going to impact you know his earnings. And one angle that I really haven't talked about too much but I kind of hinted at it because I gave it to mainstream media guy but maybe I'll just leak it here. Yeah I work for sports net man

I'm a mainstream media. There we go. So it was another one of your sports net's fellow Thomas Durantz and I kind of DM'd this angle. too but he hasn't written on it yet so I'm leaking it. One of the things I find interesting is I think this is going to happen more and more in the future because we're finding out more and more that the prime years of a player is in the range of 24 to 26. Those are his best

production years and yet the NHLPA and the teams are more than happy to transition the power away from young players towards veterans and the teams. And so there's they have no leverage they have no control and so being I guess a dick in perspective of some people and not a dick depending on who you are but basically using the very little leverage that they have this is one of the few situations they can do

with the Jonathan Duran's the Jacob Trubas and all those other players who are sitting out or right now and then there's all like the the quote unquote hockey culture guys that are like you know you gotta pay your dues and stuff and you gotta earn your stature in this league How many games play do you have to have

before you can ask for a trade. I'm just curious. Yeah, I don't know. When do you know when your dues are done? Yes, yeah. Do you get like a memo from the league? Like you paid your dues. You can do whatever you want.

Congratulations. You can now ask for trades. Yes, dues have been paid. Yeah, no, Truba, Trouba is a fascinating player. I mean, we see constantly how teams just follow all over themselves for young defensemen that can step into the lineup right away. But generally we see them like overrate guys and do that for like an Adam Larson type or something like that.

Like, Troba's an actual... It's not overrated. Truba's like an actual player that people should be falling all over their sounds to acquire or to talk about as being this really exciting young player. But for whatever reason, people just like, there's still like a strong contingent that just like aren't on board for whatever reason. Do you think it's probably just because of the steward effect, you think? I think that's in part. I think also a small market.

Right. And, I mean, Truba also plays high profiles, or not high profile, but a high profile. event game and I mean like everybody likes their Shea Weber's their low events and uh so I think that also plays a bit to it because a lot of the contest that I've seen is well troop was not good enough he he makes mistakes yeah he has these decision making things and uh you find like you know as a Jets fan um a lot of dust and bufflin but like I mean you see it across the league with Latang and suban and like all those like high all right at Carlson yeah so I mean I think that plays a role into it.

Yeah. Well, so, so spinning it forward, like, let's say the Jets realize, like, okay, you know, we can't repair this relationship, we have to try and get some value out of this asset we currently have. What do you, have you thought about, like, the most logical landing spots for him and trading partners? Like, obviously all 29, 29 teams should theoretically be in on it, but. I don't think every team is going to be in on it because some teams will have, like, a pretty

set right side at this moment in time. George McPhee's like, just wait a year, please. Just wait one more year. Just sit, just chill out. But like, I haven't looked at logical landing spots, but I've thought about, like, you know, what are potentials? I mean, you look at places.

Because the Jets reportedly are looking for a player-for-player-type deal where it's very similar. Probably a defenseman, I'd imagine. They're looking for apparently a left-hand shot defenseman of similar age and similar caliber. that becomes difficult because very few defensemen who are that young have actually been at the same caliber as Truba. Right.

And, you know, a lot of the ones that have been, you know, whether they've been better like Ekblad or, you know, similar like, or even, actually, maybe these guys are still slightly better Jones and Perio. Parioco. Paroco? Yeah. They're all right shot guys. Right. And their teams aren't in a rush to trade them. No.

No, they're quite happy. Yes. And so, like, you have to think about the fact that, you know, someone who has got a young, similar caliber, left-hand shot defenseman and is wanting to remove one left-hand guy for a similar value right-hand guy. So that becomes a little bit difficult. I mean, I could see potentially Anaheim Ducks as one possibility

because they have a plethora, both at the NHL level and they also have a lot of prospects knocking out the door, like, with Theodore and those guys. Yeah. Montour. Yeah. So, I mean, who knows? Yeah, it's going to be a tough trade to pull off.

I mean, we saw a little bit of it during the season with the Islanders, right? With Travis Hamanick, where it's like the reports where they were also looking for a young defenseman that could step into the lineup right away. It's like, well, it's kind of hard. Most, like, a lot of those guys aren't readily available. Well, yeah. And if like, you know, the teams that have those guys, you know, why would they want, like, when you want to trade, because like, that one was a little interesting because they're

literally asking. hey we want to trade hamnic for a hammonick yeah so just a hammondick that wants to be here so why would the other team be like okay well we'd rather have hammock than this guy who basically is hammock yeah yeah why would they not just want to keep the hammock that they have right yeah it's like i get the new york islanders angle but like i can see why no one ended up trading with them because like you know let's just say like you know the win the winnipeg jets back in the time you know the young Hamannick that they had was Jacob Truba and they probably didn't know that they were going to be in this situation at that time. Yeah. Yeah, that's true. All right, let's take a little break here to hear

from our sponsor and we'll be right back. We'll be right back. This episode of the PDO cast is brought to you by FreshBooks, an online accounting service designed to save time and help avoid all the stresses that come with running a small business. With the new version of the interface they're now offering, accomplishing that is easier and quicker than ever before. It's ridiculously easy to use and it's loaded with a number of immensely useful features. Whether it's customer, Customizing professional-looking invoices that only take a few seconds to create from scratch. Or saying goodbye to shoebox is full of receipts thanks to their expense tracker option. FreshBooks is a godsend for freelancers and entrepreneurs like myself.

They're currently offering a free 30-day trial to listeners of our show at freshbooks.com slash PDOCast. Just remember to enter HockeyPedocast in the how you heard about a section and you can get started today. That's freshbooks.com slash pediocast. All right. So we did the one elephant in the room with Jacob Shruba. Now the second elephant in the room, Andre Pavlik, who's sitting right here beside us. And now I'm Dill. Yes.

I'm dead. Yeah. Before we have this conversation, let me take a sip of this refreshing Phillips Blue Buck that we're indulging in. I really wish we were sponsored so we could have multiples. Yes. Well, you know, I feel like I've mentioned them. I've given a shout on his podcast a couple times. So if anyone from Phillips is listening, it would like to.

Let's see if I can work some strings through the. bartending. Yes. All right. So Pavlik. Okay. So from the Jets perspective, the fact that they've gone through this rate of still giving him a healthy amount of starts for years now, even though there's significant evidence to

suggest that they shouldn't be doing so. Do you think it's more a, that, you know, they committed to this five-year deal with him and they're kind of on the cheaper end and they don't really want to admit that it's a sunk cost and just not play them because they are paying them. I think I feel like, yeah, it's a 3.9 A.A.V, but then it's been an escalating figure in terms of what they're actually paying them per year. Or do you think that they're blinded by like the Jonathan Quick effect sort of where like you occasionally see him have these amazing individual athletic performances and you're like,

this guy might actually be good, but then he's just not. I think it's the perfect terrible storm. Yeah. It's multiple things. Like especially like early on versus now is also a little bit of a different situation. I think early on a lot of it was I guess you could say the Jonathan Quick thing where you see a player

and when you see a player do good things and you see a player do bad things sometimes you're kind of convinced to yourself that like oh maybe if I just can get him to do those good things more often that's the type of player he'll always be but let's be honest no one's as good as their best game at golf

no one's as bad as their worst game as golf you generally are what you are somewhere in the middle you might be able to push one way or another but you're never going to be as good is your best game. Right. And I think that was a big part of it, and that's why the Jets, you know, signed them long term. I think part of it also was the fact that they didn't really have anything in the system at the time to, they were scared.

I mean, everyone's afraid of the devil. Everyone enjoys the devil they know rather than the devil they don't. So the Jets were always afraid to dip in the free agency to replace it, despite the fact that most evidence suggested that, you know, if they just, you know, picked a name of a hat, they probably would have done just as well and cheaper. Thomas Grice and always just get around, right? Sure, maybe they might be just Pavlik, but they would be Pavlik at like one point, something million dollars. You're not attached them for many years. Exactly. And but, you know, the devil you know versus devil you don't.

And I think that was a big part of it. And so Alan Walsh, who we kind of mentioned with Jonathan Duran. Who's blocked me? Like one of the few people that's actually blocked me on Twitter. Yes. He's one of the few people that blocked me as well. Yes. Him Simmons and Cox.

Yeah. So back to where I was. I think that was part of it. And I believe Walsh kind of used the KHL angle as a potential, oh, Pallick will leave and just go play the KHL. Right. There was reports of a team offering him a contract and whatsoever and all this. And I think so that I think that's part of why they gave him the deal that they originally did,

even though they shouldn't have. And then after that, I think a lot of it was a bit of sunk costs. I mean, I've heard one way or another that there are still Pavlik supporters in the organization that I'd have no idea how throughout that is. He's starting enough games to make me believe that that's the case. I know. And I mean, some of it you can kind of understand. I mean, like, Pavlik lost his starting job two seasons ago to Michael Hutchinson, but then Michael Hutchinson went in a rut. And Pavlick went on a shootout or shootout, shutout streak.

Yeah. They guide him into the playoffs. So I can kind of understand. I can kind of understand that kind of thing, but like, I mean, last season, Pallick was pretty terrible. While Hutchinson was no better, they were equally bad, and I mean, Hellebiok came in, and he performed excellent, and then they sent him back to the HL, and no one really knows what's going to happen this year.

I know a lot of people have put Connor Helibu Kahn to their, um, on their keeper leagues for this year. I've seen quite a bit of it on Twitter, but honestly, I have no idea whether the Jets, Because the Jets once again have Hutchinson, who they probably don't want to lose because of the fact that he has a contract that just so happens have one year more than when the expansion draft is. That's not a coincidence. And And Andre Pavlik is UFA next year. So, I mean, they might, I could very well see Andre Pavlik and Hutchinson with Pavlik taking the bulk of the starts for one more season, unfortunately. Which is really weird because you look at the rest of this team and it's pretty clear that, you know, they might not.

necessarily be like a Stanley Cup contender, but they definitely have the skater talent to compete on pretty much every single night, but then... Maybe not on the back end without Truba. Yeah, well, that's true. Well, let's assume they get something at least useful back for him, or maybe they, you know, reconcile everything and he plays one more year for them. But whatever the case is, like, it's pretty clear that if anything is going to really just sink this team, it's going to be the goaltending.

And I imagine, I mean, it was such a fun story two years ago when, you know, they made the playoffs, even though it was very short-lived, like, They were playing really exciting hockey, and I'd like to see them get back to that level, but it's, I don't know, if Pavlick's going to be starting 50 games or so, then it's going to be pretty tough to compete in that central division. Yeah, I mean, it's the death division. I was starting to think, oh, maybe Chicago Blackhawks will start slipping, but then they go and get Brian Campbell, who I think is extremely underrated, even at his age,

for a ridiculously good contract. Yep. And. Yeah, they're going to be good once again. Yeah. Maybe not that, you know, upper echelon team. we become used to seeing, but they're going to be... But they're going to be difficult for the Jets to get into the playoffs.

No, but the craziest thing is like... So I actually prepared for this because I wanted some numbers on Pavlik. Yeah. And so since 2011-2012, which is when they moved to Winnipeg, there's been 40 goalies with 100 starts or more. And he has the fourth worst safe percentage in that time. And the three guys are retired? Well, it's, yeah, it's Broder, Brzgolov, and Scrivins.

All the... Who's... Who's... ...the Kahn's the KHA right now. I mean, he just couldn't crack it in the NH tell anymore it's like it's amazing to me that this guy's still getting a lot of lion's sheriff starts on what should be a playoff team while like the other guys in his weight class are all just out of there see what you don't get is um safe percentage is a team statistic too yeah and

he doesn't have the defenseman that can influence it for him yeah i mean Dustin bufflin has a terrible relative team safe percentage when you only look at certain seasons uh we should know we're we're kidding for people that actually might be yes um yeah no no i'd be i'd be excited to see them play hellboy i mean just based on all the numbers he's put up up until this level is you know there's always you don't want to just take it for granted that a guy's going to continue to on that track record we always see it it is like on a case-by-case basis and there's yeah we will weird things happen i mean not even even for skaters right are you saying goaltenders or voodoo goaltenders are demitiams dmitri philipas i'm on the record uh coltons or voodoo uh i am uh i i feel like we've talked about a few

sort of negative things on the Jets, but it's not all negative. I mean, I think guys, they got a really good young forward group. Well, I mean, and Patrick Lainey, I feel like we should talk about that. He's okay. I think he can play hockey. How excited are you about Patrick Lining? I'm pretty excited to be honest with you. Although, like at the same time, like, let's be honest, the more and more that I work with and for teams, the less and less of a fan I become.

Right. And more of a fan of the sport, or still a fan of the sport, but less a fan of an individual team because of the fact that you kind of force yourself to be objective. But yes, Patrick Gleine is potentially the best Winnipeg jet acquisition since the move. So that's pretty awesome. So there's definitely, I mean, the guy could very well be the next best goal score in the NHL. So having one of those for free is never a bad thing.

Yeah, especially when your team that shouldn't have been drafting second overall. Let's be on. I mean, I don't know if this has ever happened, but one thing I noticed just before the draft was both the first and second overall picks went to teams that were above 50% coursey. Yeah. Yeah, it worked out nicely for them that way. Like how often does that happen probably in history? I'd imagine very, very rarely.

If ever. Yeah, no, line is going to be awesome. Do you think that I know the common, I don't know what this has been talking about a lot online, but the common comparison for him is Obetchkin just because he could be such a great goal score. but I honestly think that I see a much more Colvichuk in him. Yes, I would, I mean, when you come to players who are... Player comps are dangerous, yeah. Player comps are dangerous, especially when you're dealing with these exceptional talents.

Like all-time grades, yeah. When you talk about exceptional talents, it's, one, it's dangerous just because you're saying, hey, this player's going to be as good as that player, but it's also because what makes these players exceptional is because they have unique things. And the reason why I deem Kovalchuk a better comparison, even though I think Linae is not going to be like either of them, he's going to be different is, I mean, let's start off at the top. The reason why Lainey always got the comparison was because of the fact that he scored a dump load of goals

from the Vetchkin sweet spot over during the World Championships. Right. And he loves that spot and he's going to be great there. And I think he'll be a great power play score in the same style, not necessarily efficiency as Alex Vetchkin. but when it comes to covalchuk I definitely see a little bit more of covey's game in Patrick Liney just because of the difference in

I mean once a vetchkin starts going nobody's golfing up the skating ability is a major difference and I mean Lainey is no terrible skater neither was Kobe but he's not like an absolute like freight train yeah there's a truck that's not going to be stopped yes yeah no I'm excited man it's

it's always fun I mean we're we're constantly seeing the game is shifting to younger and younger players and we're seeing these guys come into the NHL right away and do remarkable things. Thank God. Yeah, no, it's awesome. It's so much more exciting. I mean, we just saw it with the team North America.

It's just about to say, go team North America. I think, I think Linae is going to be awesome right off the bat. I'm kind of curious just like how much opportunity they're going to give him right out of the gate. Do you think he's going to be playing top six right away, like top power play unit, just putting him in a prime position to succeed? I believe the current understanding is that the Jets top six is, is pretty much set in stone.

Depending on, of course, the possibility of surprises. But I believe the top line is going to be Eilers, Schifley, Wheeler. That's actually perennally underrated Blake Wheeler to you. Yes. My apologies. Yes. Although Team USA, never mind. Well, he was added in the same breath as like, what was in Lombardy when he was like,

what are you guys talking about, abdilator, Bacchus, Wheeler, Dubinsky. It's like, one of these things is not like the other. Yeah, it's like, oh, Wheeler's like the third highest scoring American. Yeah, I guess he's big and physical. He's also amazing at hockey. Yes. People forget that hockey bit. Yes.

Yeah. It's not that we don't like big physical players. We don't dislike big physical players. We just care more about results in style. Well, it's when you're sacrificing one for the other, right? This was the whole thing with the Kings when they won the Cups and then everyone's like the King's model and people are going to try and play bigger. like bruising hockey. It's like,

yeah, like they're like Jeff Carter who's a big player, but he's also a crazy good goal score. I say, Culpitar has a really big body, but he also does all these other million things well,

right? They're also exceptional, exceptional hockey players who get exceptional results. Yes. Yeah. And that's why we like them. And that's why they win.

Yeah. I mean, these things like size, grit, whatever, these are just means to an ends. I mean, if they,

if you get, you want them because you want good results, but if you get them, you don't get good results, then who cares? Then there's something else in the way that's... Exactly. Bringing it down.

But yeah, coming back to the topic at hand, Patrick Line A will probably start in the second line with Drew Stafford, unfortunately, and Brian Little. And then the third... That's not... That's a pretty good place to start off. Yeah, and then the third line will probably have Matthew Perot, and then after that, who the hell knows?

It could be me and you and Matthew Proreau would still put up with 50, 55 points with great rate stats and just, kill it. Probably. I mean, like, the Jets, the Jets Ford group for the bottom six is pretty much an unknown. I think they have like 12 guys as an HL experience who are fighting for six spots or something like that. Well, do you think that, I mean, because they have all these sort of younger guys that are going to be kicking around, whether it's the HL or not. Do you think, like, this is the problem with hockey, right, where it's like there's this, your, you're kind of pigeonholed into these lineup roles and you're not going to put this young skilled guy in your bottom six

because he can't play that brand of hockey. Do you think the Jets would be past that and would actually just utilize those guys that way? Or do you think it's too much hockey culture? Who knows? Because, I mean, last year, there was something really interesting. Last year, the Winnipeg Jets started off the season with Nick Batan on their roster, on the fourth line, with Andrew Kopp, who is young,

but he's still very much a prototypical, like, you know, big body, gritty, north-south. I mean, yes, yes, Gil. he was point per game just under in the NCAA but he was still you know very much a limited offensive opposite guy when you compare him to like a nick batan and chris thorburn and i mean like that's right there you've seen the two conflicts right there i mean what is that line supposed to be doing because you have like your chris thorburn who's your gritty energy veteran leadership type guy and then on the on the left side you have nick batan who's playing with wing for the first time in like four or five years and he's expected to play and it surprisingly

the line didn't do very well i know i can't believe it it must have been nick batan's fault i i would blame nick batan especially when he went he got sent down to the hl after a couple of games and then uh he came back in a top nine role and surprisingly he did very well oh i know who could have seen that coming so i mean with the winnipeg jets i think they're going to do a third skill line and i mean right now looking at how they're doing tryouts they have like basically two different third lines or fourth lines they've been kind of trying one that's a little more skilled centered with

like Bermistroff Armia and I can't remember who the other winger is if and then they're looking at it might be Nick Patan and then they're doing like the more prototypical line with Cobb Thorburn and I mean Armia doesn't really fit in that but they've been trying him in like Paluso and

and J.C. Lepin and so Right. It's kind of interesting because it looks, to me, it looks like they're trying both and seeing like, which one do we like more? Former Camscheron favorite, J.C. Lipon. Yes. All right, let's, before we get out of here, we should probably talk about your, you kind of alluded to your gig with hockey, hockey data where you've, uh, I'm not as no one can see. You're trying to be like step away a little bit from caring so much about the jets and focusing more on your other work. But as you were telling me before we started recording, you're sort of more like an H.

an AHL guy at this point than you are necessarily kind of just working as an objective NHL follower yeah so hockey data is a tracking and analysis company it kind of started organically through as I was like blogging through hockey grass and destinations like started getting a little bit of following and like people who were in positions of power started asking me questions and I basically started being like oh maybe I should get paid for this instead of just giving them the answers and so I started charging and so I started that as a consulting gig just as my own my own self and then eventually I started consulting pretty regularly with um uh at lower levels with a player agency and I became a full-time consultant for them and from that I kind of grew hockey data um so hockey data kind of evolved

from that so hockey data has only been a company for I think technically they've only been incorporated for seven months but um they've actually existed um you know depending on whether you considered myself as a company for like two or three years. Right. And so we started off tracking statistics and giving analysis packages for lower level teams like the CIS, some junior A.A and also some major junior. And we kind of grew from that. So as opposed to like a lot of like you look at a lot of these newer companies like

sports logic or like older, more founded companies like SportsView and such, they all like look at, they look at the prize, the gold and they're all. fighting for the NHL. And so I kind of realized, you know, there's nothing on there in the HL. I mean, like, I love prospects. Like, this is my, this was like my passion, you know, studying prospects and studying that kind of stuff. And there's, the HL is hilarious.

The HL's information, there's less public available information with HL players. And there is the Liga in Finland. Or even, like, the Quebec Major Junior League. Like, it's hilarious. Well, I recommend anyone, like, you, you. Just watch like A HL Live or whatever, like the streaming service. And it's like sometimes you like get these like camera angles and there's like someone's head is in the way and it's like what is going on right?

Like it's like a paid service and it's just like it looks like it's from some other era. It's so so far behind. Yeah. So what we're doing right now is we're actually tracking every single game in the entirety that's HL. And so we're we're giving you a lot of, or not you, because you sounds like I'm talking about the general public. But we're providing the basic statistics that you would see, you know,

know through NHL's RTSSS stuff like hits, blocks, face offs, whatever. But we're also looking at more in-depth stuff like your more advanced quote unquote statistics like Corsi and Fenwick and shot differentials. And then we're also looking at more advanced stuff that's like the underlying. Right.

Like microstats. Yeah, microstats. When it comes to passes, zonal, transitional stuff. And yeah, I mean, like we've kind of advertised some of that Like if people follow me on Twitter, they probably see me talk about like the World Cup of hockey. Yeah, you guys have been kind of sending out teasers for that. Yeah. And so, I mean, we'll be also giving out some of this HL information for publicity to, to media people.

So I'm sure people will see every once in a while when like a call up happens. If it's a big prospect, they might be seeing some coursey or time and ice kind of stuff. And they'll be probably coming from us. Cool. So that's your plan for this coming season. You're going to be focusing on that. Correct. So no, no more Jets.

I will still be writing on Jets Nations a little bit. Right. Just for, I mean, it's a bit of a publicity thing, but also it's fun. All right. Listen, man. Oh, you know what? There is one other thing I want to talk about before you get out of here. I know how pretty I am.

Well, how did I know? We'll save that for after the show. No, a couple weeks ago, I guess now you wrote about sort of, uh... No, I know where this is going. You know what about stuff that Garretard's some attention. attention on internet. My, listen,

writing is not my forte. And I write a lot, but I write as a means to an end to describe this, what I am actually good at, which is statistical analysis and hockey analysis. Basically, what it really was going to, was typically trying to say is,

some stats guys are assholes. Some stats guys are wrongfully called assholes. And sometimes people are not trying to be an asshole, but might look like it just because of the way things are. That's basically what it was supposed to be. And I don't know how that's so controversial. And you wound up being called an asshole. But I wound up being called an asshole because I said that,

probably because I said it in a poor way. Yes. And for that, I'm sorry. That's my fault. And I apologize. But literally, like, I don't think it's unreasonable to believe that, you know, sometimes miscommunications can happen and people can be wrongfully identified. And I mean, like, there are some issues.

And I, like, with a second, like, I did a first piece. of us like kind of talking about some of the reasons why I think that people who are not actually trying to be you know mean or look down upon someone else could look like they are because of the fact that when you're using objective information um it's not it's no longer being an argument of my personal opinion versus your personal opinion and so because of that the the angle and discussion is a little bit different and that can look like someone saying like my opinion's better than yours. It's not, this is not my opinion. It's better than yours. Maybe my opinion was the same as yours in the first place. It has, it's nothing about my opinion. It's just, hey, maybe the evidence

doesn't match our opinions. So maybe we should reevaluate this. Well, and I mean, it's, it's the internet. And sometimes it's lost in translation. There's lack of context, the lack of, like, you know, voice, body expression and. And I think also without getting, like, without, you know, resorting a personal attacks and stuff, it's like people can sometimes be significantly different. than their online persona might indicate, right? Like, my, my favorite example is Tyler Delo, who is no longer on Twitter. But I know, I know people used to always, you know, think that he was just like the worst, most condescending person online.

And I had a couple of, you know, dustups myself with him. And then I met him in person. He was like the nicest most soft-spoken guy ever. And you know what? It's funny because I've heard that exact same story from so many different people. He's a delight. We, like, had a nice bite to eat, a drink and just talk. talked and got along great and you just never know.

And that doesn't necessarily mean that what Tyler Gill did wrong or right. You shouldn't be booed to someone online just because you're nice in real life. Like that's not what I'm advocating. Yeah. No, no, no. But like, and the second piece that I kind of brought up was the fact that like, you know, there's some things that we might do as a stats community that we could probably improve upon that wouldn't help, you know, remove that persona.

So I kind of like talked about like, you know, and I mean like, especially when you're dealing with 140 characters with Twitter, it makes it difficult to do a lot of the stuff that I'm talking about, but like, we have to be more open about like, you know, a lot of the statistical stuff has to do with probability, not necessarily destiny. You know, like there's still stuff that we don't know. And, you know, when we deal with a lot of that stuff, it makes it a lot easier for people to understand that, you know, we're not being deriving assholes where it's like, you're wrong, I'm right. Right. But at the same time, you know, like, I don't think people understand how much, how much we get back. I don't think people really truly understand how much like people under how people respond back to me when I say, you know, player A garners better numbers than player B.

So therefore I would strongly suggest that player A is most likely better. And a lot of times people are like, no, you're wrong. And I was like, that's not a positive conversation either. I mean, like, ultimately I believe that like, you know, even if you don't believe in numbers or whatever in the same manner as I do, you should be like looking towards having a positive conversation as well in like saying like, saying like, okay, you know, maybe A has better results, but here's the reasons why I think A might have better results. It's not because he's better. Right. Like, and that creates, you could still have a difference of opinion and still, um, counter strike, I guess, in a more positive manner. So I mean, like, I'm not putting, I'm not putting the fault or the blame on

the other group because I don't think that's fair because I don't think it's them. Right. Um, I think it's all people because I think people are imperfect. Hashtag not all people. Yeah, hashtag not all people. Um, But, like, yeah, not all stats guys. I'm going to start that. Hashtake, not all stats guys. I think it's like, I hope one day we're not even like referring to like the other group. Like it's like, if you're online and arguing with people about hockey, you're probably like

a big fan of the sport, I'd imagine. Yeah. And we're all sort of have the same. We should be one community. It's like, I don't understand what. I don't mean to be like, you know, like throwing up the peace sign here and trying to be all meta, but it's like. And here's the funny thing.

All people use statistics. Yeah. Just the difference is which. statistics we're using. Steve Simmons uses plus minus. He's a statistics person. He's just using a statistics. He's a status nerd.

Have a, you know, a little bit of difficulty in actually being productive. Yeah. I think, I think, you know, if we take anything away from this podcast, is that Steve Simmons is a stat nerd. He loves that. He loves that. Not all stats people. Garrett, where can people find you online and check out your work?

The easiest way is probably just to follow me on Twitter because my work. At Gerrith. Oh, H. Yes. Gareth of the O-H-L. Gareth-O-H-L because Gareth-O-H-L because Gert used to not put capital letters in the beginning of his first and last name, so people thought his name was Gareth-O-H-L.

My name is G-A-R-R-E-T-H-L. And you can find me there, and I usually blog on the Hockey Data website or the Hockey Gras or Jets Nations, but a couple of places sometimes too. Cool, man. Well, it's fun, and hopefully we can get you back on as the season goes along to discuss some of the work you're tracking.

Sounds perfect since I'm only a couple blocks away. Cool. chat to everyone. The Hockey PDOCast with Dmitri Filipovich. Follow on Twitter at Dim Filippovich and on SoundCloud at soundcloud.com slash hockey pdfgeast.