The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 105: NHL Over/Under Best Bets

Episode Date: October 11, 2016

Rob Pizzola joins the show to help break down the Over/Under season-long point totals for all 30 teams this coming season. From a betting perspective which teams provide the best opportunity for value, and which ones should you stay away from? Here’s a quick rundown of the topics covered: 2:00 The Randy Carlyle Effect 5:00 Alberta Teams 7:00 One more year of losing for Arizona? 10:00 Early season parity 14:00 Carolina Hurricanes done in by goaltending 16:30 The cream of the crop 19:45 Western Conference supremacy 22:45 How much better will the Leafs be? 27:30 Noteworthy highs or lows This episode is brought to you by Freshbooks, an online accounting service designed to save time and help avoid all of the stresses that come with running a small business. They’re currently offering a free 30-day trial to listeners of our show at Freshbooks.com/PDOcast (just remember to enter “Hockey PDOcast” in the ‘How You Heard About Us’ section). Every episode of this podcast is available on iTunes, Soundcloud, Stitcher and can also be streamed straight from this website. Make sure to subscribe to the show so that you don’t miss out on any new episodes as they’re released. All ratings and reviews of the show are greatly appreciated. Thanks for listening! See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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My name is Dimitri Filipovich. and joining me is Rob Pizzola of prediction machine. Rob, how's it going, man? Good. How about you, Dimitri? I'm good, man. I'm good. I'm excited the season starting. And with that means that we've got a fresh batch of over under point totals for the season for all 30 teams to kind of sort through and find our best and worst bets. Yeah, it's always exciting this time of year.

I love going through NHL preseason and looking at these point totals and trying to find some value for some season-long wagers. I love sweating those season-long wagers. I love sweating those season-long. long wagers in the last month of the year, or especially at trade deadline when you got some overs or unders on some teams and you're looking for them to make a big deal or a splash to maybe help you get there. Yeah, it's kind of a fun thing to follow as the season goes along. And I know you're a much more experienced sports better than I am, so I'm happy I've enlisted

your help to help me wait through all this. Yeah, we're glad to help out for sure. So just before we get started, just so everyone's on the same page, we're using Bobato or bo-Dog's lines. I've been told they're not the best and you can find better values out there. And honestly, these lines came out a while ago. So the smart betters have already taken advantage and wagered on them. And so the lines have moved quite a bit.

But, you know, we'll just use it right now as a general framework for simplicity's sake and we'll go from there. Yeah, that makes sense. And it's a good point about the lines having moved already. So some of them have settled in. The one thing about Bobat or Bodog compared to other books and why I think it's a good idea to use them is they offer season point totals, whereas a lot of the other books like Pinnacle or I guess five dimes, any of the other books offering props or offering win totals, which I prefer a lot less.

I prefer to go with the point totals. I think they're easier to project. Yeah. Yeah, no, it's easier to visualize, too, for the listeners. So I think an interesting team here for me is the Anaheim Ducks, because their line right now is at 96.5, which is quite a bit of a departure from where they've been in the past few years. where they've been one of the better teams of the Western Conference.

And I think a lot of that has to do with people being very skeptical of the coaching change they made and the job Randy Carlisle is going to be there. And I'll let you speak to that in a second as a man who lives in Toronto and live through the Randy Carlisle era. I'm sure you have some thoughts. But the interesting thing that caught my attention right away is that their over is actually plus 105, whereas they're under is minus 135, which correct me if I'm wrong, but that basically means that the book is kind of trying to tempt you to bet the over there. I don't know if it's a temptation, so to speak.

I think what a lot of that is probably they've taken some early action on the under. So they've now juiced that price a little bit more to make it more costly. I don't buy into the fact that the books are tempting anyone to do anything. I think they're just putting out a line there and seeing they're using the money bet on it to determine which way that they're going to shade that number. But it does show that people are betting Anaheim under early in the early going year. Yeah. Yeah.

And I don't know. It's kind of tricky because at the same time, like, I'd love to bet against Randy Carlisle. And I think that there's a lot of combustible factors there and things really could go south in a hurry. But at the same time, at 96 and a half, there is so much talent on that team that I could very easily see them, you know, hitting the over and reaching 100 points. So I don't really know where to go with that one. Yeah. So for me, Anaheim is a team that I'll be looking to play against a lot this year. And, you know, a common theme for the top team.

in the West this year is questionable goaltending. I think aside from the Kings, with quick being largely overrated, but still being a pretty good goaltender, I think you look at the top teams in the West, and I'm not sure that that Anaheim duo of Gibson and Bernier is really going to do much this year. I have that being one of the worst duos in the league going into the season. Again, the coaching, I think, could play a factor.

Now, it's very tough to value that early in the year. I really don't know what to do with Anaheim, and I really don't know what to do with a lot of situations where there are new coaches coming into that. But I run a full season with the Anaheim Ducks and I get them at about 92 and a half points on average, which would be an underplay at 96.5. So I don't think it's a strong one at all, but I'm not high on the Ducks team going into this year. Yeah, I mean either. Two of the biggest risers sticking in that same division in terms of where they finished last year

and then where their lines are at right now are the two Alberta teams. Calgary is at 89 and a half and Edmonton's at 88 and a half and I don't know I think from Edmonton's perspective it makes sense there's so much optimism you just view Connor McDavid I mean he was so amazing in the flashes we saw in his rookie season and now they get a full year of him like he could really just elevate that team on on a consistent basis and drag them to that total but for calgary it's it's a bit confusing to me because all I really see there is I mean they obviously kind of tried to shore up their goaltending with Brian Elliott and and they were so putrid their net last year that that could make a big difference and they made the

coaching change but I'm not sure that I necessarily see them as being that much of an improved team from last season. Yeah, I think you nailed it with the coach, sorry, excuse me, the goaltending with Brian Elliott and I don't think the average fan realizes how important goaltending is and actually how good Brian Elliott has been throughout his career. He's never going to be that guy that's flashy or anything, but he's got the job done. And just by having him in net, if he can come close to, let's say, somewhere around a 93, percent, say, percentage at even strength this year, that makes Calgary a much

better team. I would look at playing the over-on Calgary just barely. Again, it's tough because they struggle to keep the puck. Their coursey numbers over the past few years have been bad. Their forward group, outside from the top, you know, five or six forwards, it's nothing. I really like

the back end with the top three there, Giordano, Hamilton, and Brody. Again, I like Elliott. I think Calgary is improved this year. I'd be looking to play the over slightly there with Edmonton, I'm not sure I buy it with Edmonton. I think 88's a good line. I think that's roughly around where it will finish. Again, the defense with the other is still going to be a major issue this year. Trading Hall for Larson, that really doesn't improve them all that much this year.

I'm not a big Larson fan at all. I think that was a horrible deal. So 88 seems just about right or 88 and a half with Edmonton this year. Yeah, they really didn't do themselves any favors with that. I feel like if they kept Taylor Hall and I'd feel much more optimistic about betting the over on that line. Yeah, we can, you know, we can talk about the Taylor Hall trade forever. I just think they got a horrible, horrible return. I know that they were, you know,

looking for a defenseman that, but they could have either held on. They could have looked to get P.K. Sue Bann in some sort of deal. Obviously, with him being available, I just think that that was a really, really bad return for one of the better forwards in the league. So when you look at all these lines,

what kind of sticks out to you as, Let's get optimistic perspective first. Which one is something to you that you look at and you go, hmm, I'm not sure why it's that low. I'll gladly bet the over on that. Yeah. So it's interesting because I look at the Arizona Coyotes and I see a number which is the lowest in the league right now.

It's the lowest point total in league. And I don't think Arizona is the worst team in the league. There's not a whole lot I like about them. I don't like Mike Smith as a goaltender. I don't think they're particularly deep. I think that they're, they have some decent depth at forward and defensemen, but, you know, they're probably one of the worst five teams in the league. But you look at a line there, and, you know, last time I checked 77 and a half points,

I think that's too low. I see this team getting roughly 82 to 83 points on average in my simulations. The only issue with betting the coyotes is obviously you run into that situation where, you know, if they're out of it by the deadline, which is quite possible, they may be looking to unload. And we see that a lot of times, and that's what's particularly tough to gauge with wind totals. I, you know, 77 and a half, I think that's way too low, lower than it should be. I think Buffalo is a worst team, Vancouver. I would argue Carolina and Colorado are even worse in Arizona or close to being worse than Arizona. So that's one that stands out to me,

but it's just a little bit more of a risk because of that potential of unloading players later on in the year. Yeah. No, it's always kind of dicey to bet the over on teams where you're not sure if necessarily they're even going to be trying to win as the year goes along, right? obviously they have a lot of young talent there, and it's quite possible that, you know, they could play exciting hockey as they did last year. But I'm sure that that management group would be perfectly content with them having another year where they bring in a top pick and bolster that group of young players they have even more and kind of go after it next year instead.

So that would be the one thing that would kind of scare me off from that one. Exactly. And, you know, I try to remove all of, you know, the human bias from what I do and everything I do is very methodical and it's very math-oriented. oriented. And another one that I look at right away when I, you know, I, I see in the season and then I plug in the wind totals is Ottawa over. And Ottawa as a team, I'm not a big fan of Ottawa. I obviously love Eric Carlson. Again, I like some of their top end forwards. And I think Craig Anderson's a decent goalie. I think that goalie situation is decent in Ottawa. But that's a team as well where I would love to bet the over at, I believe, was 83 and a half, which I think is too low. But that's a team. That's another situation where I think that team could find themselves outside of the mix at the deadline or not close to a playoff spot possibly because I do think that there are some teams in the east that are pretty good this year. So that's a tough one for me. I think the number is low, but I wouldn't risk as much as I normally would just because of the potential.

You know, Ottawa realizes they're not going to get to a cup this year. If they have a chance to unload someone for a quality return, a young player or picks at the deadline, I think that they would do that. Yeah, for sure. Well, the interesting thing to me is, I mean, kind of circling back to the Arizona Coyotes as their line, I mean, it's interesting that from what I gather, them and the Canucks are the only two teams with lines under 80 points. And I feel like, you know, that's being a little generous. I feel like there's going to be at least a handful of teams that are going to once again kind of be pretty future. I mean, we saw it last year, I think there was six teams total to finish with under 80 points. Like, it seems like a given and that's going to wind up happening. So I guess you just got to pick out which

ones you think are really going to fall to or be sellers at the deadline and just pounce there. Right. And I think that's what tends to happen here because when you're projecting before the year, there's a lot more parity. But as the year goes on, injuries happen and then we start to see teams fall out of playoff races and sell players, teams by players. And that parity, you know, it's non-existent. It stretches. Whereas, you know, going into the year, I project Buffalo to be the worst team in the league against, you know, any other team. With that being said, I have an expected goals 4 percentage for Buffalo of 45.2%,

which is quite high because in the past, I would see teams in the low 40s, even a Buffalo team from a couple years ago, I actually had them in the high 30s at one point. And again, I have Pittsburgh as the top team in the league with an expected goals 4 percentage of 56%. So there's not a big gap between top and bottom.

It's about 11% right now. And by the end of the year, it'll be at least 15%, maybe even higher. So you see a lot parody earlier in the year. That's why the wind totals are set this way. But as the season goes on, you do tend to see a lot of things that will affect, obviously, these win totals. And you do tend to see teams bottom out a lot quicker than you'd expect. Yeah. Yeah, it's interesting. You bring up the Penguins last year. They finished with 104 points,

and now their line is at 103.5. So it's right there. And it's not generally, I'd be kind of skeptical of betting on a team that just had a long playoff run like they did, especially when you win the cup. There is a little bit of that hangover. But it's not often that we see a team have that much success and then pretty much bring back the same roster, right? Like generally, as we've seen with the Blackhawks in years past, where you have all these players and then all of a sudden you win and they get bigger contracts elsewhere or you just can't afford them all anymore and it kind of depletes the team's depth. But the Penguins should theoretically be the same team they were last year.

And if, and you know, the second half of the year was any indication they've kind of figured things out under Mike Sullivan. So I'm kind of curious to see if that team can keep it going as the year goes long. Yeah, I love Pittsburgh this season. I do think that the best team in the league. I think that they are obviously the favorites to repeat, and I would not be surprised at all if they do. I have been projected for 103 points,

which is the most in the league, which would be basically a no-play. But I completely agree. Like, this is the team to beat. There's no significant weakness on this team. The puck possession is really good, especially, like you mentioned, after Sullivan took over last year.

There's just a lot of depth on that team. They can survive a big injury. I think that Pittsburgh team is. rock solid. Well, and I mean, as we mentioned, you know, you were discussing the parody of the start of the start of the year when you're doing these projections. And if teams of the year goes along, fall off and start just giving away games based on if it's injuries or if they start kind of, you know, not so subtly tanking. Then for the really good teams out there, there's going to be a lot more points to kind of rack up and cushion that total. So I feel like the penguins could pretty easily get around that

one 10 range if everything goes right. Yeah. And like you said, we're, we're talking about sort of the parody a little bit, but there's 10 to 12 GMs that are probably going into this season, realizing that their team's not going to win the cup, and they'll do anything to upgrade for the future. And that's always got to be something that you're cognizant of when you are betting these win totals. And as much as I think that there's some good value on some of these bad teams going over, I mentioned Ottawa, Arizona, Columbus would be another one, you know, maybe even Carolina at a low number there. You do have to be aware that these teams will be sellers if they can be. be sellers. They're not playing for this year.

So that's just something that everyone should be aware of when they are betting these win totals. Yeah. Well, okay, it's interesting you bring up Carolina because I was going to use them as my team that I'm optimistic on in terms of hammering the over just because they finished with 86 points last year and their line right now is at 81 and a half.

And I look at that team and under Bill Peters, you know, there was a big mismatch between their underlying possession numbers and how they were actually producing. And a lot of that was because they had bad shooting luck and and they were poor in net. And I'm a little frustrated that they brought back Cam Ward because last year,

when I viewed it as, you know, they were sort of, they knew what they were doing, right? It's a smart front office there. They realized that they had a pretty interesting young kind of nucleus forming there, but they weren't going to be good enough to necessarily make the playoffs or, or push anyone in the first round. So they would be better off kind of submarineing themselves and getting a high pick. But I don't know. I look at them this year, and that's the one thing that would be.

there would be worrisome to me if they kind of keep riding cam ward but at 81 and a half i feel like that's going to be a pretty easy over yeah so obviously the goal tending is a huge issue there uh any lack is an upgrade to ward but i probably do see them starting ward more often than not for some reason that's been the trend uh i agree with you like carolina is a team that the possession metrics are good i think they're actually over 50% last year five on five which you barely you know you rarely see from a team that ended up so poorly but goaltending a major issue and obviously I think a lot of it is to do with the quality of their chances as well. The shooting percentage, as you mentioned, very low.

You know, I projected it to be low again this year. This is something that's been a recurring trend for this Carolina team for years now. It wasn't only last year. It's been good possession, poor shooting percentage, probably stemming from less, you know, high quality chances and poor goal-tending. I tend to agree with you. I think that the point, you know, their point total is about three and a half to four points too short. I don't think they're a great team by any means, but, you know, know, that number is a little bit low in my opinion.

Yep. So I gather that you're kind of skeptical on these very high lines for the teams, whether it's the Capitals or Lightning. I mean, the Capitals are at 106.106.5 right now. The Lightning are at 105.5. And I don't know. Do you think those are kind of suckers' bets? Because obviously they're popular teams for the public.

And we know that they're very good, but you generally don't kind of want to be committing yourself to the best case. scenario for those teams? Yeah, I would only look to the unders for those teams. In fact, I'm looking at my edges against point totals right now and the top four unders would be, there's a common theme here. They're Tampa Bay, Washington, St. Louis and Chicago, which are four teams that you think would be probably top 10 teams in the league heading into the year, but you tend to see inflated point totals because people aren't going to bet these numbers under. Bookmakers know that. They make the number is a little bit higher and you know that's what we get that's not to say that i don't think

that these are well especially in the case of tampa bay and washington i think those are two of the top four teams in the lead i think they're really good i have been both averaging roughly 100 points a year but the number is too high um you know just from a mathematical perspective now chicago on the other hand that's a that's an under that i absolutely love i don't think that the black hawks are an elite team this year. I think they're somewhere in the 10 to 15 range in the league. I don't think they're built to handle an injury to one of their top players. And that's the problem with this Blackhawks team. There's not a ton of depth. They're a very, very top heavy team. They're getting some good goaltending in Crawford as well. But they're just so much of

their production comes from like a handful of players that if anything were to go wrong there, that could be a disastrous season, in my opinion, in Chicago. And already, even if, I project everyone to be healthy for the whole year. I still see Chicago coming in way short of 100 points, roughly at around 95 a season. So I think the Blackhawks are probably made for the best under on the board this season. Right. And I mean,

you just look at that division, and we expect that Winnipeg is going to be better. They kind of had a little weird season last year where everything went wrong. And obviously they're pretty happy now that they have Patrick Linae, and it was worth it for them. But we expect them to be quite a bit better. And Minnesota under Bruce Boudreau should be at least as good as last year, if not better. So there's going to be just like fewer points there to go around. And you're right,

if they have one injury to any of those guys. I mean, I think people don't realize last year just how reliant they were on Patrick Kane, the power play, and Corey Crawford. And now while all those three, all three of those things could conceivably continue just because those are really good players and they have a lot of talent on that team, so the power play should conceivably be good. It's, it's kind of a dicey thing to keep relying on rather than, you know, the teams that have like a a lot of depth that could that could go through the full 82 game season without those concerns.

Yeah, I'm just not convinced. I look at the line combinations heading into the year. I see Richard Pawick playing on the second line with Jonathan Taves and I'm just, you know, I have serious concerns over the depth there. And you're right, you know, a lot of the stuff that went well for them last year, Patrick Cain is an elite player.

He probably has another great year. The power play was great. Well, it makes sense. You know, they had Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook on the back end. they have a lot of high power offensive players. Corey Crawford was great and that could all happen again. But, you know, it would have, it would just have to be a perfect season for Chicago. Let's remember they were, I think, 103 points last year as well with all these things going right.

And now we see a win total this year of 101 and a half. So basically everything went right for them. They got 103 points. You know, if anything goes wrong this season or they don't get production from Kane like it was last year, or the power play, Or Crawford is, you know, marginally worse, I think they're definitely a sub 100-point team this season. So I just did a show with Michael Blake McCurdy, and we were discussing his prediction model.

And he has the L.A. Kings is the best team in the West, just over 100 points. I personally prefer the Nashville Predators. I'm a bit worried about relying on Peca Rene there because we have seen his performance decay so much in the past few years. But there's so much talent on that team that I'm pretty optimistic, that, I mean, there are lines at 99 and a half, so it's not the, you know, the best value, but I definitely see that team hitting, hitting the over 100 pretty easily. Yeah, so actually, it's interesting that you mentioned that.

So I do things very, very similarly to the way Micah does. In fact, we communicate quite often about our models and we sort of work with each other to help each other improve or at least we talk about things. And a lot of my opinions will echo the same sentiments that he has. The problem I see with Nashville is obviously Pec Arena. Aside from that, that is an elite team. The defense is fantastic, top to bottom. You know, the forward group is not the greatest in terms of, you know, high-quality players,

but they have a lot of good players there. I really think that that's a good national team that needs a goalie. And, you know, at 99 and a half, that would be an under to me until they actually did pick up some sort of goaltender, which is possible this season at some point. René makes a lot of money, it'd be tough to unload him. I think they're about $5 million short of the cap, so it could happen. But that's an under to me.

In terms of the Kings, I see the same things that Micah does. The only problem is that that's an aging team. They're getting older. The puck possession is still fantastic, and we know that that correlates the success. They still have a slightly above average goalie and Jonathan Quick. I don't see a whole lot of weaknesses with L.A. maybe in terms of depth, you could argue that they're a little bit weak at forward.

But at 97 and a half points, I would lean over to that on the win total for L.A. as well. Yeah. I mean, they were at 102 last year, and I figured they'll at least kind of just be the team that they were last year. So that seems like you're getting four or five points of cushion there. Yeah, the thing with L.A. last year, too, if we remember, they got under the gates really hot while Anaheim was struggling. And then L.A. sort of faltered a bit down the stretch. and they looked kind of tired. I don't like to use those narratives,

but they look tired against San Jose in the playoffs. Now, granted, San Jose is a lot of speed. But Ellie faltered down the stretch. It is an old team. It is tough, you know, to adjust for age. So, you know, I would lean to over. It's not something that I would be very comfortable in playing, though I do think the Kings are a very good team,

but, you know, I'm not 100% sold on that team. because of their age. Yeah. All right, let's talk about the Leafs because you're very familiar with them. And I think they're an interesting case study here because from what I gather,

their line opened up somewhere in the 70s and now it's up to 81.5. And even the over is a minus 135, which as we discussed at the start of the show, implies that fans have been hammering that over pretty hard. So I still think that at 81.5, it's quite conceivable that they could, it could still provide a good value

just based on the fact that, I mean, the problem with this team last year, it's very similar to Carolina in the sense that you could see the skeleton of a good system there, right? Under the coach, they were playing a good puck possession game, but they just kind of lacked the talent up front to actually convert on those opportunities. And now we're seeing with a youth movement there, we're going to have a full season of Nealander and Austin Matthews. And they could convert many more of those opportunities. So do you like the over on that? I do. I think it's a little bit low.

and, you know, I am a Leifes fan, but unbiased, I just think that that number is a little bit low there. I actually have them at about 86 and a half points, average simulation. Listen, there's not a whole lot that the Leaks are going to do well. You know, in terms of their talent level, definitely there are some question marks there, especially when you start looking at, you know, their third and fourth line forwards. You know, aside from Gardner, Riley, Zaitsev, you know, they are still dressing Roman Polack and Matt Hunwick, which is a major problem on defense. But they do upgrade their goaltender and Frederick Anderson.

They got some really poor goaltending a season ago. So that's already going to improve their numbers quite drastically. And I think a lot of these younger kids have been playing on the top two lines, I think there's a lot of potential there. And not only potential, but I think they come into the league with a good talent level already. I don't see those guys as projects or anything like that. I think those guys are ready to contribute right away. So I don't necessarily think the Leafs are going to make the playoffs or anything.

Probably have about a 15 to 20 percent shot of making the playoffs this season. But in terms of this point total, I definitely think it's still a little bit too low. Yeah, you mentioned that you're a Leafs fan and you can separate yourself from that. Is it just one of those things where it takes time to kind of, you have to do this for a certain amount of time before you can kind of be more cold-blooded and just separate yourselves and not necessarily be emotional, but just kind of think with your head rather than your heart? I actually think it depends on the individual and what the individual person values. And for me, I wouldn't bet on sports if I wasn't winning money or if I, you know,

was an opportunity to win money. I, you know, I'm not some sort of degenerate gambler where I need the action on a game or anything. I do it as an investment type of thing. Right. And if you're not willing to separate, you know, the heart from the mind for investment purposes, then, you know, I don't really think you're really losing an edge in the long term. Yeah. No, I'm with you there.

I think that, you know, I'm not necessarily a fan of many teams, but if I was putting money on it, I would, it's kind of tough to not let your personal biases get in the way I was discussing there's a Mikeo where, like, the Edmonton Oilers seem like they could very conceivably hit the over or be much better this season. but I've also watched the Edmonton Oilers over the past, what, decade now be kind of the laughing stock of the league and everything. Whenever you think something's going to go right, all of a sudden, there's a comedy of errors and it goes horribly wrong, and I would just feel very uneasy kind of being attached

to that situation. Yeah. My whole philosophy is that, especially with the way I bet on sports and not specifically hockey, but, you know, obviously applies to hockey. You know, everything is quantifiable in some way. So I'm very much a math guy and I very much believe in data, you know, using data to arrive at percentages on and probabilities on things happening. And once you believe in that and you believe in what you're doing, you can pretty easily separate, you know, the data from what you're watching or the narratives. You know, I talk a lot about experience and how it doesn't matter and people sort of look at me and they're like, well, you know, obviously,

experience matters and it's like no it really doesn't you know we see year after year especially in hockey you know young teams go to the playoffs that even the Chicago of the backhawks the first time they won the cup you know several years ago now but that was a very very young team with very little playoff experience and I just you know I like I said I'm just a believer in things being quantifiable and if you can't quantify them then they don't really exist yeah no you're totally right about that um so are there any before we get out here are there any lines that we didn't get to yet that you think are noteworthy whether they're too high or too low or do you think we kind of hammered it all out? I sort of touched on it a little bit, but I, St. Louis

under, I did mention that I think that some of these top teams are a little bit overvalue. St. Louis at 100 and 1.5, I think, is a little bit too high. They downgrade at goalie, in my opinion, from Brian Elliott to Jake Allen, and that is enough of a difference, in my opinion, to already make up for the points in the total. And also just, again, like, I just view that as a little bit of an inflated line. People expect the blues to be pretty good. And they are. They're a top 10 team in the league.

I just not buying them as a 100-point team this season. Yeah. No, it makes sense. I mean, we just discussed how, like with the Oilers, for example, how it would be kind of sketchy to be relying on a team like that. And it makes sense that they would set these lines. this high for the teams that we know are kind of universally regarded as being good? Because obviously people are going to feel more comfortable being like, oh, I think that,

you know, I just watch the blues go far in the playoffs. Obviously, they're going to be good again. So I'm going to hammer the over because I don't want to be the person betting against them. But then that's where the value presents itself for the smart betters like you. Right. And when I, you know, I have my spreadsheet open here. And when I sort the teams from 1 to 30 in the league based on how I project them and then I look at the edges on the totals, you know, I look at the upper half of the league and I'm seeing, you know,

the majority of the plays would be on an under, and I'm looking at the lower half of the league and seeing the majority of the plays would be on the over. You know, that's not a given necessarily. Like I mentioned earlier, Buffalo is a bad team. Colorado's a bad team. I'd still like the under is there. And, you know, in terms of good teams,

you know, Florida maybe would be a possible over a team like Philadelphia, who I think is quite underrated going into the year. And I think that they don't, Steve Mason doesn't get the credit that he deserves for being a really good goaltender. I think that would be another old. to look at. But in general, I think that that sort of applies where you're probably going to get your best value on taking unders on really good teams and overs on poor teams.

I'm glad you brought the flyers because their team I definitely like is the over. I mean, they finished with 96 points last year. And we remember they had that frenzy to run towards the end of the year that vaulted them into the playoffs and they push the capital is pretty hard. But they're 92 and a half right now. And I'm just, I'm not necessarily sure why we'd expect them to be worse than they were last year. I mean, the biggest weakness on that team was the blue line, especially after Michael Dosato went out with injury. And now Dosato's back. And Ivan Proveral, their top pick from two years ago looks amazing in preseason. And I expect that he's going to get a long look to start the year and could conceivably carve out a nice spot there. And all of a sudden,

once you have these guys that can move the puck from the back end and cleanly exit their own zone, all of a sudden, it sets everything up for guys like Claude Jureau and Jake Warwick. And I think that the Flyers isn't over. It seems like a bet to make it. makes a lot of sense. I agree with the Flyers there. I like the back end, but particularly what I like with the Flyers, especially for betting an over on the win total, a lot of times what will hurt you when you bet these overs is an injury to a goaltender.

And the Flyers have two good goalies in Mason and Neuberth. So that's a big factor there where you don't really have to sweat if one of the goalies goes down, you know that you're going to have a quality backup no matter what. You know, you can't see the same for about 20 to 25 other goalie situations in the league. So I think the fire really good overplay this year. Yep, I completely agree. Rob, where can people find your work online and kind of direct their hate towards you if you said any bad words about one of their teams?

Yeah, everyone can follow me on Twitter at Rob Pazola. I do my best to respond to everyone, and I will respond. If people do direct hate to me, I will respond. I am a fiery guy, so that's there. I also am the general manager of predictionmachine.com. We will be doing a lot more hockey stuff this year. It hasn't been notoriously. It's been a hockey website,

but I will be putting my stamp on that this season as well if people want to check it out there. Perfect. I'm looking forward to it. Thanks for taking a time, man. And we'll get you back on as the year goes along to kind of recalibrate and see where we went right and where we went wrong. Perfect. Sounds good. Thanks, Dimitri.

The Hockey P.O.cast with Dmitri Filipovich. Follow on Twitter at Dimphilipovich and on SoundCloud at soundcloud.com slash hawk PPDocast.