The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 134: Struck By Lightning

Episode Date: January 26, 2017

Alan Wells joins the show to to discuss the Tampa Bay Lightning. What's gone wrong for them this season, are there deeper-rooted issues to worry about or is this season a one-off, and what will they look like in years to come? Here’s a quick rundown of the topics covered: 1:05 Are the Lightning the league's most disappointing team? 9:30 Issue #1: Suspect Goaltending 12:50 Issue #2: Blueline Personnel Evaluation 24:15 Issue #3: The Front Office vs. The Coaching Staff 30:05 Approaching the trade deadline 39:05 Can they get back on top in 2017? Every episode of the podcast is available on iTunes, Soundcloud, and Stitcher. All past episodes can be found here in chronological order. Make sure to subscribe so that you don’t miss out on any new episodes as they’re released. All ratings and reviews of the show are also greatly appreciated. Thanks for listening! See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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My name is Dimitri Filipovich. and joining me is my good buddy Alan Wells. Alan, what's going on, man? Not too much, just trying to survive this lightning season. How's things going with you? It's going well, man. Yeah, you're loser points on Twitter for those that don't know, and you follow the lightning very closely.

You're a fan of theirs. You write about them on SB Nation's website. We're off charge. And you seem like the right man to bring on here to try to make sense of whatever the hell has happened to this team of the season. Yeah, I mean, hopefully we can answer some questions. I think it's interesting. I've seen a lot of people kind of wondering what's going on with the team,

so I think it'll be fun to take a deep dive. I've been watching them pretty closely tracking games for the passing project and things like that. So I'm pretty familiar with how the team looks when things are going well and getting an idea this year about how things look when they're not going well. So we can try to figure out what's driving at. Okay, well, so let's set the table a little bit for people that just might not be familiar. So I think that it's fair to say that the lightning have been the most disappointing team this season. I mean, you can make an argument that maybe the Dallas stars have as well, but I didn't think that they had necessarily sort of the,

maybe they had a similar upside as the lightning did, but definitely not as, they weren't as stable heading into the season, and you could kind of see what could go wrong with the stars if it did. But whereas this lightning team, I think that, I don't think, I don't know, a single person, I didn't have them firmly in one, in either the first or second season, you know, Atlantic right there with the Montreal Canadians. I mean, they just didn't really give us any reason not to have them there coming into the season, as far as I can tell. Yeah, I think, I know national media was really big on them coming into this year. I mean, you know, Cup final two years ago, Eastern Conference final last year.

So I think everybody had had high expectations. And I don't think it's far to say that they're the most disappointing team. I mean, they're last in the east in terms of points percentage. And I don't think anybody really, really predicted. anything close to that for them. So it takes a lot of things to go wrong to get from sort of where they were expected to be to where they are now. That's kind of one of the things I've been talking about all year is, you know, when things go this wrong, you can't just point to one thing and say that's the issue. So there's been a ton of things that have driven that. So, you know, we can just,

we can just dive in and see where it's, where it's gone wrong. Well, the thing, why did you mention the two teams in the previous seasons? Because, you know, I was kind of scanning it and trying to figure out and they basically brought back those entire teams. I mean, I think that out of all the players that were receiving regular minutes on either of those teams, the only one they didn't bring back was Matt Carl and there's a strong argument to be made that he was probably the worst player on their team. So it's like, it's just one of these things where generally with teams that are successful for a few years in NHL with this hard cap system when they fall off, it's because they've just been bleeding away so much talent that eventually they just kind of can't fill those gaps anymore

and they're a shell of what they used to be. But, you know, the one thing we'll get into here is, is the injuries, which has certainly played a role, and that's kind of zapped their depth a little bit. But, I mean, all of the sort of familiar faces are pretty much there. It's like, this roster's intact from the one that was so successful the past two years, which is what makes this just completely dumbfounding to me. Yeah, and I think, I think that's right on point. It's not a, it's not necessarily a roster issue.

Matt Carle was not just the worst player on the team, one of the worst defensemen in the league last year. I don't think that's really arguable. He had a great career and he put in a lot of work. He played a ton of games, but the cliff came fast for him. So that's definitely not, you know, the reason for the dropout this year. I think one thing, you brought up the injuries, and I think it's helpful to run through that real quick.

I think sometimes people don't see the full scope of how bad the injuries have been this season. I think the other thing that's important from, you know, contextual perspective is we're looking at a team that's played over 200 games. games, you know, in the past couple years, and then had the most players in the World Cup, and then is now playing a condensed schedule. And so, you know, I don't know how much of a factor fatigue has been, and I don't know how much of a factor that fatigue has been in the, you know, just absurd amount of injuries that they've had as a team. But I think, I think those things are playing a role. And, you know, everybody knows that Stamco's heard, and that's a

huge injury for them. You know, he's, he, you know, drives the scoring on that top line. He drives the scoring on the power play. So that's, you know, he, you know, he drives the scoreing on the power play. So that's a huge loss. I don't think anybody, you know, is underestimating that. You did a good job on a couple of podcasts ago pointing out how a surgeon he was at the beginning of the year. He was playing probably his best hockey that he's played in three years, which, you know, isn't too surprising if you switch from having Ryan Callahan

and Alex Clorin as your line mates to Nikita Kutrov and either Jonathan Drew and Vladomestakov, you're probably going to produce a little bit better. So he was definitely benefiting, especially from playing with Kooch, who's such a creative player. takes the pressure off Stamcoast to create, lets him just get to his spots and do the things he likes to do, and let Kutrao be the one to handle the puck and get it in the zone and decide whether he's going to shoot or set up Stamcoast's for the past, and Domestikov is great in manipulating space, although that was a great line for them.

So that really hurt when he went down, but it hasn't just been him. Straumann missed a few weeks at the beginning of the year for a team. We'll get into the defense at some point, but for a team that lacks depth in that area, as much as they do, missing him for three weeks was not, you know, was not a good. the thing and really put them in a tough spot. You know, Bishop being out for a while at one point, really put them in a tough spot again. They don't have any confidence in there in the third goaltenders in the organization. Andre Vasselowski played every game while Bishop was out, including a back-to-back where he faced

40 plus shots in both games and got hammered. And, you know, the coaching staff didn't really seem interested in pulling him for any of those games, just kind of left him in there to face that workload. and they lost some games during that stretch, so that hurt. And I think the other one that people miss a little bit is Braden Point was great for the first 20 to 30 games of the season or so before he got hurt. And he's been out for about four weeks, and that's a four to six week injury. He was honestly, after Stamcoast got hurt, probably the third or fourth best forward on the team. He's a kid that a lot of people didn't even expect to make the team out of camp,

but he pushed guys like Condra and Corey Conacher back to Syracuse because he played so much. well. So missing him has been, has been big. He wasn't scoring a ton, but he was really driving play for the lines that he was on. And then they've had a slew of just, you know, guys missing a week or two at a time. And it seemed like, you know, for a stretch there, every game, they were short three, you know, two or three guys and the lines were different every night. No continuity in terms of, you know, who's playing together. Just the whole organization that has really struggled. I think we had a game where we had 19 healthy forwards between Tampa and Syracuse combined. So at times it's been really difficult to deal with. And the other one that I think isn't getting as much attention. And I'm a little surprised is the situation with Ryan Callahan. You know, he had off-season hip surgery. He's now tried to come back from that injury three times this season. Hasn't been able to keep himself in the lineup.

And, you know, obviously everyone knows that that's a bad contract at this point. It's one of the worst contracts in the league. Nobody expects him to perform like a $5.8 million a year player. But he's still one of the 12 best forwards on the first. team and having him not be able to contribute at all even, you know, on the third or fourth line like he did last year has been a pretty big hit for the team too. So they've just been, they've just been hammered by injuries of forward, which is, you know, their strength area and they have, you know, very little depth on the, on the defense and just, you know, having a depleted forward

core meshed with their, you know, already questionable defense has been a, has been a bad combination. Yeah, that's the thing. I mean, Samples has been out, you know, he's the obvious one and he's been out for an extended period of time here. But it's just like, I feel like every night when I look at the lineup, they're dressing, it's two or three guys are just constantly missing. But it's always like, it seems like it's different guys. And I think that when I pulled up sort of who's appeared for them this year, I think like 31 or 32 different players have dressed for them.

And that seems like a crazy number this early in the season. I feel like there's been, you know, they've just been shuttling guys to and from Syracuse. And I think that there's probably been a bit too much Joel, Joel, Vermin and Luke Wittkowski involved in the entire operation. And it's kind of tough when you're missing all these key pieces to try and patch it together for extended stretches. And that's clearly hurt. So I had, I basically had three things in terms of stuff that I've noticed with them that is really alarming. So the injuries are one. The goaltending, as you mentioned, is a big problem. I mean, they were 9th and if I were say percentage last year. They're down at 25th this year. And

personally, I find I'm annoyed by it a little bit just because I was someone who was very skeptical of Ben Bishop for a long time. I thought that, you know, everyone talks about sort of his, his puck handling abilities in that, and, and then that's totally fine. But I thought that, you know, him just basically being a big body was one of the only things he really did well. I didn't particularly see very many noticeable skills in terms of actually stopping the puck from him other than just kind of getting in the way of it. But listen, he kept posting above average numbers for long enough for, for year after year that I finally bought in. And when I finally do all of a sudden, his performance, just craters. And then he gets injured. And,

Vasilevsky, who I've been kind of saying should be the starter for this team for a while now, finally gets kind of his chance to shine, and he really struggled with it. And basically, they're just, you know, they're not scoring enough on the other end to make up for the suspect goaltending they're getting. And that's just kind of done them in. There's basically just, it's kind of as simple as that, I think. Yeah, it's been a huge factor. So last year, um, they had from a roster construction, standpoint, a similar challenge with, they essentially have a all-world top defensive pairing

with Hedman and Stroman. It doesn't get much better than that, and then not much after that. And so they really committed to a style of play last year where the forwards were constantly in support defensively. They sacrificed a little bit of their offensive potential. They played at a little bit of a slower pace to try to support the defensive effort. And it worked out really well for them. Bishop had a career year. He probably won't have a year like that again. I don't consider myself an expert in goalie analysis.

So I always look to the smart goalie people for that stuff. And they most would say that he's a league average or maybe a little bit above average. And so when he has a Vesda caliber year like that, you have to kind of know that that's that's an outlier for him. I think this year is probably an outlier a little bit on the low end for him. I think he's probably playing a little bit below his true talent level. But that style that they committed to last year really relied heavily on getting excellent goaltending. And that hasn't been the case this year.

It's been bad. And then the coaching staff came into the year with a pretty clear plan of, you know, how they were going to balance the workload between Bishop and Vaseline. Vasselowski struggled a little bit early in the year and they kind of abandoned that and they went to sort of riding the hot hand kind of mentality and that that generally doesn't work for goalies usually like they like to have a set schedule and be able to prepare and understand when they're going to be called upon. And then, you know, like I mentioned, they did the injury to Bishop and like you said, Vasilewski, you know, got his chance and it just didn't just didn't work out for him. You know, he didn't play terribly. He had some really horrible luck. There were some bizarre goals.

There was a game in Nashville that I think they lost 6-3 or 6-2 where the lightning were just far out playing the predators and it just seemed like the weirdest stuff was happening and the puck was ending up in the back of the net. And you can just see the kind of looks on everybody's faces on the team, like whatever is going on this year. So it's been a little bit of a mix of bad luck and also bad play. And they don't have,

have with Stamcoast out and the constant injury, the forward and the sort of change in style of play that they switched to last year, they just don't have the offensive firepower to overcome that many mistakes from the goal-tending. And I think that, you know, so far we've alluded to a lot of kind of bad luck, whether it's with performance or with injuries, but whenever you underperform like this, it's probably some of your own doing. And I think this is a good transition point to discussing this team's blue line. This is the big elephant in the room with the Tampa Bay Lightning, in my opinion.

I think it's something that it's kind of a theory I've been cultivating for a few years now, but this year it's really bubbled to the surface. And I think that it's something that some combination of Eisenman, Breesua, and John Cooper, it's tough to know sort of who's pushing and who's pulling and who's responsible for some of these personnel decisions, specifically without actually being in the room. So let's just kind of lump all three of them together. But I think that they really seem to have a blind spot when it comes to evaluating defensemen. I think that's fair.

I think the league struggles a ton as a whole with this. And I think the lightning are no different from that. I think it's particularly noticeable for them because they've been so smart with the way that they've drafted forwards. And they've been so willing to go after smaller skilled guys who were undervalued. And they've found a ton of value in late round picks and things like that. So their inability to find those guys on defense, I think it stands. out. But I think something that that really hurt them that maybe also hasn't been talked about as much is, you know, they took a big gamble on Anthony DiAngelo, and it just did, it just did not

work out. You know, he was supposed to be that second pairing, you know, right-handed guy who would have come up this year and been a contributor for this team. And he was really the only guy in the pipeline that was ready to come in and fill that role. And when, you know, they took a that he would grow and he would mature and he would become, you know, a professional that you could have be part of an organization and it got to a point, I guess, last spring, where they just felt like that wasn't feasible anymore and they moved him for a second round pick. And, you know, that kind of set the whole process back because they really only had two viable guys in the pipeline and him and Slater Kuku. And, you know, we can get into Kuku a little bit later, but

he hasn't progressed the way that you would want this year. And the team hasn't really given him a clear opportunity to do that. And so I think that's just part of an overall problem. I mean, I think, you know, trading for Jason Garrison was an interesting, you know, decision. You know, they were pretty desperate at the time. So, like, I can kind of understand that. But that's another guy making $4.6 million for another couple years who's not, you know, contributing at that level.

And then, you know, they're continued, you know, sort of being enamored with Andre Schuster, who's a, you know, a 6-8 righty. And I just, who doesn't, you know, bring a lot to the table, honestly. And they've got a guy in Nikita Nesterov who's, you know, a totally different style defender who has almost identical impact to Schuster. And it's actually far outplayed Schuster this year. But, you know, if you look at their career paths, they're pretty similar. And for some reason, Schuster's in the lineup every night. And Nestorov is the seventh guy and playing forward sometimes.

And they just, they don't seem to have an ability to bring these guys along the way that you would like. you know, some of the moves that they've made, free agent-wise, I mean, the Matt Carle contract ended up being pretty bad for them. I think a lot of people had issues with the Braden-Coburn extension. He's been good this year. I can't lump him in with everybody else. He's been solid as a second-parent guy. It doesn't mean that that was a good trade or that that was a good contract, but he's doing his job this year. So I can't really knock that too much.

We'll see how that looks in a year or two, and you definitely can't justify trading. who'd send a couple picks for him. But he hasn't been as much of an issue as sort of the four guys after him, where you know, you've got Schuster and Garrison who are playing every night and are not performing well and are being treated like a second pairing. And not only treated like a second pairing, but getting buried in terms of defensive zone starts. At one point they had one of the highest defensive zone start percentages of any defensive pairings in the league, and they were one of the worst in terms of expected goal share.

And, you know, that's the kind of stuff where you say, you know, you have to recognize. recognize that these guys are struggling and you have to put them in a situation to succeed. You can't take a pairing. It's obviously struggling and just bury them in terms of usage. So that's the kind of stuff you would like to see change from an evaluation perspective is, identifying who's actually playing well, who's contributing to the team, and then the ones that are struggling try to help them out a little bit. Well, I mean, you've written about this yourself recently, and I recommend people checking it out, but you know, you basically called into question what they were doing with their blue line,

because even if Slater Cuckooke hasn't necessarily been on that upward trajectory or developed the way you would have hoped up until this point, I mean, it's still pretty clear that he was a big part of their second best pairing along with Braden Colburn, as you mentioned, and they just sent him down to the HL without any real explanation other than that he needed to keep developing there and working on his game. And, you know, the extremely savvy Anton Strauman signing a few summers ago kind of flies in the face of this theory. But I mean, all these moves that you mentioned, it just seems like I'd love to know what they are looking for and what they're prioritizing with their defensemen because as you mentioned with a guy like Nikita Nessro, I just think it's, you know, there's no

argument to make that he's not one of their six best defenseant right now that he should be in the lineup every single night. I mean, it's just like the Garrison Schuster, the Garrison Schuster pairing, as I've talked with you off the air about in the past, it's really, I just don't know how much more I can take of it as just an observer. It's like, it's one of these things where they remind me of the Willie Mitchell, Eric Good Branson pairing last year before Florida finally put those two out of their misery. But it's like they're just abysmal to watch. I mean, it's one of these things where whenever they're on the ice, absolutely nothing seems to happen. They can't get out of their own way. They can't move the puck. They constantly just dump it

sort of without any purpose out of their own zone and it winds up coming back in the other end. And at least with a guy like Garrison, I feel like he sort of knows his strengths and limitations as a player and he's understanding that, you know, he lacks the footspeed to keep up with guys to try to go wide on him when they're attacking. So he actually does a pretty good job of combating that with, I think, some fine kind of stickwork and reach when he's attacking oncoming puck carriers. But with a guy like Schuster, I just don't understand what he's supposed to be good at or what he brings to the table. You mentioned he's a righty and he's 6-7 or 6-8, which is cool, I guess, but I mean, he can't really skate, he can't move the puck, he's not physical around the net,

he doesn't protect his own blue line when guys are trying to carry it in against him. So, I mean, if I'm trying to put together a rec basketball team, I'll make sure to give him a call so he can grab some rebounds for us. But beyond that, I mean, I don't see how he contributes to an NHL team at this point. So it's stuff like that where for, I think it is especially glaring. I mean, I think most teams, as you pointed out, struggle with a balloting defenseman and we still don't have great metrics to kind of quantify their play because sometimes the best defensive players are the ones. we don't even register. It's kind of just subtle little positional stuff that prevents anything from even developing in the first place.

But it's pretty clear that whatever they're using to make these decisions on the blue line isn't working and it's been going on for a few years now. And it's just jarring compared to how well they've evaluated forwards, I think. I think that's the ultimate thing. It's just such a big discrepancy between the two. Yeah, it's really strange. And I think the, you know, you watch them defensively. And, you know, I don't want to spend a whole podcast hammering Andre Schuster.

But, like, you watch them try to get the puck out of their zone. And it's just, you know, it's brutal at times. And when it was worst, I think, during the Eastern Conference final last year, I mean, there were times where the Penguins just kept the puck for, you know, 30, 45 seconds in the offensive zone. And it just, just nonstop. And they just could not, they just could not recover the puck. and make two or three passes to get it, to get through the neutral zone with possession. And, you know, during that series,

one of the interesting things is that's kind of when Slater Kuku kind of came onto the scene a little bit and started to get a little bit of attention and people got to see him play nationally. And, you know, in all honesty, the Lightning looked like they had three defenders who belonged on the ice in that series. And, you know, Hedman-Strakew and the other one was Slater Kuku. He was the only guy who looked like he could keep up with what the Penguins were doing. He was the only guy who looked like he could get the puck and get it out,

get it out and get it through the neutral zone with it. And he was the only guy that looked like he can make a pass to a forward, you know, against a really intense, really good forechecked by the team that went on to win the cup, you know. But I just think it's telling that they haven't, they haven't sort of identified that and they haven't given him really a chance this year. I mean, they started him in the H.L. You know, he's there again. he and he and coburn have been the second best pairing on the team I think coburn is driving that everybody on the team has been better when they play with

Coburn Garrison's better when he plays with Coburn chusers better when he plays with Coburn Nestra is better when he plays with Coburn Cobra's been the best of the guys after that that top pair but out of all those options coburn and Cuckoo have been the best and you know even if you're just thinking about the future of the organization I mean he needs to be in the NHL getting NHL minutes and understanding the mistake that he makes and learning from them. This is a problem we have league-wide

where these teams are so they're so risk-averse and they're so unwilling to accept mistakes that defenders make either in their own zone or on an aggressive pinch that gives up a rush the other way and they just can't seem to get their heads around letting these guys make these mistakes

at age 21-22 so that they can learn from them, get them out of the way and be ready to go by the time they're 23, 24, when you keep burying them in the HL like this, they just don't get the opportunity to develop the way they should, and you're just kind of stunning the whole process. So instead of this being a full year of Slater Kuku developing in the NHL and what would have been a better year than this,

which is we're starting to progress towards this maybe being a wasted year. You know, if this year kind of becomes a wasted year and he doesn't progress, I mean, that's a pretty bad outcome for them. So I'm just, I'm confused at what the, what the direction is between the front office and the coaching staff. You know, they have this asset. They need to develop it. They're desperate for somebody to step up and take a role on the second pairing and they, you know, aren't given them the chance to do that. Right.

And I think that, you know, with the forward group and the personnel they have up front, they're suited to play a game at a higher pace where they have defenders. They can get them the puck quickly and they can transition and wreck havoc that way. And I don't, you know, you could look exactly at that team they played in the Eastern Conference last year in the final where, the penguins similarly were really struggling early in the year. And then, you know, they brought in Trevor Daly. They brought in Justin Schultz. They tinkered with their blue line. And all of a sudden, they could actually get the puck to their forwards and make stuff happen.

And it just, we just saw the performance just jumped through the roof for that entire team. And I think it could very well be sort of as simple as that. Like if they just sort of reversed their course in terms of what they were looking for and how they were evaluating their fencing and what they were prioritizing, if they kind of pivoted on the fly here, it could make a big difference, whether it's, you know, this year, if it's lost, whatever, maybe in the future.

But I think it's something that is important. But I mean, that's a good sort of pivot to a discussion about Cooper and Eisenman who, you know, I think most people in the hockey industry are very high on the job they've done since coming to Tampa Bay and a lot of it is well deserved. I think they're near the top of the list whenever anyone's ranking or talking about the top coaches

and top GMs. And, you know, they both seem progressive. They both seem willing to try stuff. I think that, like, mentioned they've given they've been one of the teams most notoriously giving some of these skilled undersized guys up front a chance in the NHL or a chance in the and it brought them into their system in the HL and giving them a chance to get jobs with other teams and you know that's great but there are also a lot of red flags in terms of some of the player development we've seen from

them with the guys they've drafted some of the contracts they've signed you mentioned Callahan and cober and you know they had to buy out Carl just because it became such an albatross like I think where are you at with them in terms of do you think that all the credit they get is deserved or do you think that they're sort of still living off of what they did a couple of few years ago where they just hit a bunch of home runs and the past year or two have been kind of raising a bit more questions or a bit more alarms? So I'm a little more bullish on Steve Eisenman than I am on John Cooper at this point. I think, you know, I like the majority of what Eisenman's done. they've been pretty forward-thinking in terms of embracing analytics from,

I mean, I don't have any kind of inside information on the team, but just all the stuff that's publicly available. You know, they have a team working full-time on that, which is a good sign organizationally. I think they've made some smart moves. I think their drafting has been good. So I think their scouting is good. I think they've signed some good contracts.

You mentioned the Stroman contract. I think, you know, Eiserman, you know, debate how we got to the Druin situation, but he handled it the right way once it was there. I think he did well with Hedman and Stamcoast in the offseason. I know some people probably don't like the Stamcoast contract. Maybe they don't think that a guy who doesn't really drive playing is just, you know, purely a goal score deserves that kind of money. I would tend to disagree.

I think goals are the most important thing. and if you have a guy who scores like that, you put him next to somebody like Nikita Kutrov, and I think you get your money's worth on that deal. So I'm pretty happy with Eiserman. My concerns are really with Cooper, and my concerns are really, you mentioned it as player development.

You know, I think everybody kind of got blinded when that triplets line came up the year. They went to the cup, and it was like, you know, they got these three guys, and they brought them up from the H.L. together, and, you know, it's Tyler Johnson, and Andre Pallada and Nikita Kutrov. And, you know, this is the best line in the league right now.

And they're tearing up the playoffs. And Tyler Johnson is shooting, you know, 17% or whatever he's shooting. And I think at that point, I think over the last two years, we've kind of realized how much of that line was Nikita Kutrov. I think sometimes people still don't realize how good he is, that he's absolutely one of the best wings in the league and that he drives play with any two guys. and I think he was really responsible for a lot of that line success,

and that line was a lot of the reason that people were really bullish on Cooper as a coach that he developed these guys in the H.L. And brought them up with them and they were going to a cup right away. If you look at Johnson and Plotz numbers away from Kutrov, they're not great. They're both sub-50 percent shot share and expect the goal share players away from him in their careers. So, you know, I think, and then you look at all this stuff that's happened with Drew. and Drew and still, he goes through stretches, but he still hasn't reached that kind of top of his potential.

He's getting there, you know, over the last couple months, I think. We've started to see that sort of top end of his talent level. And I think part of that is because they've been forced to do to injuries to kind of give him more opportunities. So, you know, I still don't love for such a high pick with so much talent, you know, kind of how he's come along. And then you look at the stuff that's happened with Kuku this year and the, And, like, I talked about the constant choice of Schuster over Nestrov, which doesn't make sense to me. Not that Nestrov, I think, is great, but he clearly deserves a chance to play and show what he can do.

He's also younger than Schuster. So that's really where my issue is with Cooper. And then the other thing with Cooper is, you know, they talk about, you know, Rick Bonas is the associate head coach and he handles all the defense and the penalty kill. And then previously, you know, they talked about Cooper, you know, was in charge of the power. play, which was terrible. So they had to hire Todd Richards to come in or on the power play. And at some point, you start to think, like, well, what on this, what on this team is, is Cooper's thing at this point?

The power play is the best thing about the team this year. And Todd Richards is running that. Everything else has been, you know, systems-wise has been pretty questionable. I think part of their issue with their breakouts is that they haven't changed anything since he started. And I think teams have been watching them for two years and watching them make two deep playoff runs. And they know, they kind of know what's coming.

so yeah I'm still pretty happy with eiserman I think every team hands out bad deals I would hope they would learn from some of the stuff they've done like let's not you know give four five million dollars to defenders who are going past age you know 31 32 anymore let's not give big contracts the forwards you know who play a physical game and have taken a ton of punishment over their careers hopefully they can they can learn from those things but all teams make those mistakes I'm okay with the direction of their front office. I'm a little concerned this year with the lack of progression of the younger players and the younger talented players.

Yeah. I mean, well, let's spin it forward and look ahead because I think that it's going to be very fascinating to see how they decide to approach the next six weeks here and then the summer because, you know, let's just say that they don't make some sort of run here and they miss the playoffs. I don't necessarily think that that would be the worst thing in the world that you mentioned

they've played a ton of hockey the past few years and i still think that you know getting a high pick getting a good good prospect out of the draft and then you know making a few changes on the margins here and there in the summer in free agency and trades and then coming back next year i would once again think that they should be a playoff team contending for the number one spot in the Atlantic i would still be very high on them and i think they'd resume their position as a contender so i don't think it's one of these things where you need to all of a sudden overreact and make some sort of grand changes but But when teams kind of have a year like this, for us from the outside, it's very easy to kind of say, you know, we just remain calm and kind of stay the course. But generally, we do see some sort of changes, whether they're dramatic ones personnel-wise or whether, you know, the coach gets fired or something happens.

Something generally tends to change. You think that they'd be comfortable kind of bringing back most of these same players in the same sort of foundation next year? or do you think that if it really just kind of goes off the tracks here, that there's going to be some sort of noticeable changes in the months to come? So I'm really interested, even before we get to the summer, I'm really interested to see how they approach the next month or so. You know, assuming that they're in a similar position, I think, you know, you asked about evaluating the front office.

I think this is a really obvious point to evaluate the front office. You know, it's normal in an organization, especially in organizations that's been winning the past couple years to say, We're only five or six points out. If we make a run, we got one of the best players in the league coming back in March. All we have to do is make the playoffs and we're a threat. I think that would be a mistake. Worst case scenario, they trade assets to try to add players to make a run here.

I think that would be a really bad sign for the front office's ability to sort of evaluate where they are. I'd be really concerned if they did that. I've heard that there was a rumor and I don't know. you know, how accurate some of the stuff that goes around nationally is I don't know how well anybody really has a read on what's going on in the Lightning Front Office. They're pretty good about keeping things under wraps, but there was a rumor last week about the team shopping Nestorov. You know, if that's true, if they're trying to, you know, flip, you know, a defender to get something else to chat. Like that kind of stuff wouldn't make any sense to me. You know, if they're

trying to move pieces to try to fix it for around this year. I wouldn't be surprised if they just stand pad and say, you know, if we make a run, we make a run. If we don't. we'll reevaluate in the offseason. What I would really like them to do, they have two good quality expiring assets and Ben Bishop and Brian Boyle. Brian Boyle is having a career year. Teams love guys like that,

you know, gritty guys with a little bit of skill who can score, who are depth forwards, who have playoff experience, who can win. They can get something for him. Every team needs goaltending. I would love to see them try to move those guys to try to pick up a couple extra picks or a couple of prospects

or whatever assets they can they can compile together. They've got salary that they desperately need to dump coming up. They've got, you know, several big restrictive free agents that they need to deal with this summer that they need to clear space for. So, you know, one of Philpola or Garrison probably needs to go. If they could find a way to do that at the deadline, I would love to see them start trying to position themselves well and kind of restock, use this opportunity to restock their draft picks when they when they really kind of built all this talent into the organization they did

this they had a big fire sale at the deadline they compiled a bunch of second and third round picks they had extra picks every year for a while i'd like to see them do that again use this opportunity to do that i think that's one of the keys for evaluating any organization is um how well do you identify the opportunities that are presented to you and and they didn't meet their expectations this year they didn't meet the goals that they had set so how quickly can they pivot and sort of adjust and uh and come up with the best movement going forward. So, you know, I would like to see them start trying to position themselves and maybe head to the draft with a few extra picks and a few extra assets.

And, you know, who knows, if somebody slides in the first round, maybe in there already in a decent spot, maybe they can move up and really get a difference-making player. So that's the way that I would be starting to think. I mean, if they win, you know, eight or ten in a row, then they're right back in and that changes everything. But if it continues on this pace, that's the way I would like to think. In terms of major changes, I don't, I don't expect, I mean, maybe if, if they really fall off a cliff the rest of the year,

they might make a coaching change. But I wouldn't even expect that. I mean, maybe if they feel really strongly about Todd Richards, you know, they love what he's done as an assistant coach or if they love what their new H.L coach, Belmont-Rourl, if they like the way he's been coaching the team this year, they're looking like they're going to make a playoff run and stuff. So there might be an option there.

But I wouldn't expect to see any, you know, major, trades, and I wouldn't even really expect the coaching change unless things go really bad for the rest of the year. Yeah, I think the Philpula move is fascinating to me because he has only one year left and I think five million as a cap hit. And, you know, he's having a very productive season based on points. And I feel like, you know, he is still a good playmaker and he can get guys the puck and you could, if you're another playoff team, you kind of talk yourself into him being a nice little piece you could add as a kind of secondary scoring and on a second. And on a second. and unit power player or something like that. But for the lightning, like, just the fact that

if they got rid of them, they wouldn't have to automatically protect them in the expansion draft because of his contract status. I think that that would be a huge luxury where they could kind of use that spot more wisely on it to keep a younger, cheaper, more serviceable guy instead. And beyond that, I mean, the other moves you mentioned make a lot of sense. I think that, you know, Bishop, assuming they can get anything for him seems like kind of a no-brainer considering that it seems like, you know, it's going to be Vasilevsky's job next year and whether or a good Levskis is the backup or whether they bring in a more proven kind of guy on the cheap, it looks like that's the direction they're headed.

So pretty much anything you can get for Bishop at this point seems smart, even if you're still kind of in a little bit of a playoff race. I don't think that, you know, moves like this, even if they start playing a bit better, it shouldn't necessarily kind of scare you off from doing some of this stuff because I don't think that trading Ben Bishop for picks or something like that is all of a sudden going to completely just crash all their chances of making some sort of a last-ditch playoff run this year. Like I think they'll be perfectly fine regardless because, you know,

both of us are very high on Vasilevsky, regardless of how much you struggle this year. I still think that, you know, they'd be smart to give him more and more starts the year goes along to see what he's capable of him and whether he can handle heavier workload next season. So kind of stuff like that, you're right. I think that for a savvy organization, you're kind of looking ahead and you're trying to get ahead of the curve and trying to make, anticipate moves before you actually need to make them while you still have some leverage rather than waiting until the draft or waiting till free agency and then all of a sudden panicking and having to take 50 cents on a dollar or completely losing guys

just because you've kind of lost all that leverage because you waited too long. Yeah, and I think that's exactly right. I think the challenge with that is if you move guys like that who are like fixtures from a leadership position and things like that, it kind of signals to the team what you think is happening. You know, I think there is, I mean, we have to remember that they're human beings in there. You know, if you trade guys like that, the team is going to kind of see the writing on the wall. And so I'm sure that would have an impact and they would, you know, everybody would have to kind of be on the same page there. But I think the other thing that I didn't mention is that, you know,

trading, moving Philpola or Garrison is not like, you know, be nice to do. It's that they have to do it. Or they're going to lose one of their restrictive preagents this summer. They cannot sign everybody that they have to sign. Plus the three big ones they have are Druin, Plot, and Tyler Johnson. and then plus all the other little, you know, one to two million dollar contracts they need to get done. There's no way they're getting all that done with the money they have on the books right now.

So if they get to a place where they realistically don't think they're moving any of those pieces, then all of a sudden it becomes which one of those guys. And then, you know, do you start talking about, do you see if anybody would give, you know, a major asset for somebody like Tyler Johnson to get a boost for the rest of the year? And so I think there's a lot of different things in play. I think that kind of stuff will be more likely to happen in the summer. but, you know, if you see the writing on the wall, and sometimes if you strike early,

if you make the right call at the right time and somebody's desperate, you know, you never know. So I would be exploring all those avenues right now and just trying to make sure I understand all the different scenarios and what are all the possible outcomes and what's the one that's most likely to put us in a position to succeed next year. Yeah, yeah, for sure. We'll see how the second half the season goes for them. I mean, you know, they're technically only five points out of a wildguard spot right now

as we're recording this, but they'd also have to leap. frog a bunch of teams to do so. And they haven't necessarily shown any sort of signs or reasons to believe that, you know, they've got some magical long winning streak in them at this point. I mean, they still do have a lot of talent and, you know, they conceivably could. I mean, we've seen crazier things happen this season in NHL, but it seems like, you know, they should start at least kind of thinking about what their roster is going to look like next year and the years to come. and I think that we've kind of bummed out people enough already with sort of some of this talk of a lightning. So, I mean, let's end on some positives.

I think that watching Jonathan Druand this year has been remarkably fun. I mean, as you mentioned, he still hasn't necessarily, you know, become that sort of an impact player on every single game basis. But he's been a highlight machine and especially lately, I mean, he's kind of been everything that we thought and dreamed he could be where, he's trying all this kind of creative fun stuff with the puck the other night in anaheim he was in a kind of deep in his own zone and he just sent this stretch pass in midair across two zones and it landed perfectly on kuturov's stick and sort of stuff like that where most guys you know either aren't capable of it physically or would never even dream of it they just don't possess that type of creativity so it's it's it's been fun to watch him he looks like he's going to be an amazing player and

obviously kuturov as you mentioned is blossoming into a legitimate number one option where he's reaching that sort of upper echelon star status where regardless of who he plays with, I feel pretty confident that he's going to thrive and succeed and bring them along for the ride. And there's very few guys like that in the league. So guys like that and headmen and, you know, there's still the pieces here where if they do some of these moves, we laid out, whether it's now or in the summer, and kind of surround them and maybe freshen things up a little bit and kind of think outside the box a little bit and adjust their defense. All of a sudden next year, I have no issue believing that they're going to,

kind of resume their contender status that they've had in the past few years. Yeah, and I don't want to sound, you know, overly negative. And as a fan, nothing would make me happier than for them to go on a huge winning streak and maybe to be rooting for a team in the playoffs again. But I think as a sort of like, you know, a fan who approaches a game with, you know, an analytical mindset, I want them to position themselves best for the future. And the thing for me is, you know, we talked about this team having a cup window and that window's not closed.

They're still totally capable of making deep playoff run. and competing for championships. So I think that's why it's so vital that they make the right decisions, that they navigate the rest of this year properly, that they don't do anything hasty that's going to really affect them long term, that they position themselves properly for the expansion draft, that they do all the things they need to do to get these restrictive free agents signed. So, yeah, I mean, and just there's a ton of fun stuff to watch on this team.

Watching Jonathan Druin and Nikita Kutrov on the ice at the same time is unreal sometimes. when they put those two guys on the first power play unit and they work opposite sides of the ice, it is unfair the amount of times that they just sort of manipulate space on the defense, create these passing lanes to be able to go, you know, Royal Road back and forth. I mean, it's just unreal. And as long as everything goes well,

that those two guys should be able to be locked up and play together for a while. And when Stamcoast comes back, if we ever get that, you know, Stamcoast in the middle with Kutrov on the right and Drew on the left, I mean, that's a nightmare line for defenses to try to deal with. So, you know, hopefully we get to see all that stuff reach its potential because it would be a ton of fun. Yeah. No, I'm glad you mentioned that cup one, though. It definitely still is open, but I think it is a good reminder for fans out there that, you know,

I've been talking about this for the past few years. It's like, you know, they had this young team, and the first year they lost in the Stanley Cup final to the Chicago Blackhawks. And a lot of people were like, oh, there's nothing to, you know, hang your head about that it's a young team. They'll be back. And, you know, last year they came very close again. But it's just this year is sort of a reminder that, you know, sports are weird. Unpredictable things happen. And, you know, just because you have a good team right now that looks young and looks poised to be good for the next however many years to come.

Like, if you have a chance to go for it and win it all, you sort of have to do it because you never know what's going to happen in the future. So it's just a good little reminder for that. But you know what? I still like this team and I still like watching them. Hopefully I won't have to watch that Garrison Schuster pairing much longer because, they sort of suck the life out of me a little bit, but otherwise a lot of the other players are as dynamic as they are in the league. Yeah, totally agree.

You know, and I've had the same thought, you know, about, you know, seizing the chance when you have it. And I was one of those people saying, this team is young. This is the first year. This year was, you know, kind of icing on the cake, you know, the real years where they should be competing or coming up in the future. And you just never know.

And I think actually a team that's an interesting, kind of idea for is the Leafs as they have all this you know sort of explosion of young talent that's you know and there's been a lot of talk in that fan base about you know that you know there's still a year or two away and listen if you if you're good enough to make a run this year

make a run this year you know and if that means trading for a piece of the deadline to try to bolster yourself so that you're ready to go then I you know I don't have any problem with teams doing that when when your windows open and you have a chance you know you you go for it then and, you know, you don't mortgage your future to do it, but, you know, don't, don't let those opportunities pass by. Absolutely.

No, I completely co-signed that. Alan, where can, where can people find you online and check out your work? So I'm going to, I'm going to shout out a couple places here. I know everybody tries to be super humble. I'm going to do the opposite and take, like, a minute here to shout out a couple places. Go for it, Matt. You're working. I write at hockey graphs.

I think most people know hockey graphs. That's where some of my more numbers, heavy stuff goes up. I'm honestly, I'm just happy they let me write there. Everybody there is so much smarter than me. So I just feel lucky to get the right there with that team. I do some stuff at NHL numbers, which is part of the Nation Network, which is great. The team there lets me write. But the thing I really want to push is I see a lot of stuff on on Twitter and online about,

you know, what's going on with the Lightning, where can we find out what's going on? Come to raw charge and check us out. We have a ton of content there. I write there, you know, at least once a week. We have a lot of other good writers who write way more often than me and have a lot of, you know, meaningful contributions to offer. So if you're not sure what's going on with the team, I mean,

you can always follow the B-Writers and kind of get, you know, the service level stuff that's going on there. But come check out, come check out raw charge to see where, what's, you know, really going on under the surface and how the fans are feeling and, you know, where we're,

where we sort of see the team going over the next year or so. Absolutely. And I think that everyone listening right now, assuming they are on Twitter, I mean, I feel like everyone's on Twitter, who's not, should go and follow you at loser points. I noticed you're under 1,000, followers and I think we need to remedy that. Hopefully the Hockey P.D.O.cast bump is an actual thing and we can finally get you over there because, you know, you always tweet out quality content and I highly

recommend following you. Awesome, man. Yeah, I appreciate it. I think I've got to be one of the lowest follower accounts who's ever been on the show. So we'll get a real feel for the bump after this. Absolutely. All right, man. Let's check back in closer to the deadline, and especially if the lightning either start making some moves or make a run or completely fall out of the race. I'm sure they'll be one of the teams that a lot of people will be watching very closely come to trade that line. Absolutely. Sounds good, man. Talk soon.

Thanks. The Hockey P.D.O.cast with Dmitri Filipovich. Follow on Twitter at Dim Philipovich and on SoundCloud at soundcloud.com slash hockeypediocast.