The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 138: Effectively Wild

Episode Date: February 8, 2017

Matthew Coller joins the show to discuss why the Wild have thrived under Bruce Boudreau this season, and whether they're capable of not only sustaining their play thus far but hitting another gear during the stretch run. Here’s a quick rundown of the topics covered: 1:15 The Sports Scene in Minnesota 3:00 Coaches getting an unfair shake 11:15 The obsession with faceoffs 16:00 Eric Staal's revitalization 19:15 The postseason chess match 25:45 Going for it at the trade deadline 35:00 Ryan Suter's true value 39:20 Shot Attempts vs. Scoring Chances Every episode of the podcast is available on iTunes, Soundcloud, and Stitcher. All past shows can be found here listed in chronological order. Make sure to subscribe so that you don’t miss out on any new episodes as they’re released. All ratings and reviews of the show are also greatly appreciated. Thanks for listening! See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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My name is Demetri Filipovich. And joining me is 1,500 ESPN and ESPN and Insider is Matthew Kohler. Matthew, what's going on, man? Not much. How are you? I'm good, man. I'm excited to have you on. We've been trying to make this happen for a couple weeks now. And we're going to talk about the Minnesota Wild, which somehow I feel like are not,

I mean, it makes sense of the Minnesota Wild, but I feel like they're nationally, they're not getting nearly enough attention considering the rate at which they're winning hockey games. Yeah, I think maybe we'll finally start to. As they've come out of the All-Star break here, I know even locally, going into the season, most people thought here in Minnesota that, like, this is probably going to be a seventh or eighth place team going into the playoffs. And, hey, maybe Bruce Boudreau gets a few more points out of them than last year. Or maybe they avoid a massive January slump.

But the expectations were really not all that high. And I feel like just now everyone even locally is starting to kind of wake up to how good the wild really are. Right. Well, we were talking about this before we went on the air a bit, but I mean, you're obviously, your primary focus is the Minnesota Vikings for your job. And then now that the season's done, it's the wild. But I feel like, you know, in the fall in October or so heading into the respective seasons, like, they probably would have been third on the pecking order in terms of interest level in Minnesota behind the Vikings and the timber holes, right? So it's like, yeah, I think even as you mentioned locally, I think fans of the team itself, like there wasn't that much buzz heading into the year with them. Yeah, no, you're right about that. with the wolves, this was a year that was really hyped by a lot of the national people that got expectations up really high because they have the three young players, Carl Anthony Towns, Zach Levine and Andrew Wiggins, that this was supposed to be like, all right, now they're going for it.

Well, that hasn't really worked out. And the Vikings started out 5'0. So at the beginning of the hockey season, most people's focus was on the Vikings, and they weren't really even talking wild. And the wild season did not get off to the kind of start that it is. is the way they're playing right now. I mean, they were kind of up and down to start, still figuring out what Bruce Boudreau wanted to do.

And Devin Dupnik really kind of bailed them out early in the season. They were getting out shot a lot. They were struggling to find which lines are going to play together and figure out a little bit of chemistry under Boudro. And then all of a sudden it was like somebody flipped the light on. And they went on a 12-game winning streak and really have not turned back since then. So, I mean, over the past week or so, just around the hockey world we've seen and what I consider two of the top, however many coaches

in the league and in Claude Julian and Ken Hitchcock fall victim to something that I generally consider to be out of their own control in terms of just they could receive really poor goaltending and in today's NHL, it's kind of tough to overcome that regardless of what else is happening around them and they paid for that. And I think that that's a good lead into our discussion about the Minnesota Wild and Bruce Boudreau here because I think similarly, I mean, it wasn't necessarily goal-tending, but it was, you know, untimely playoff defeats and it was losing three straight game sevens, including in back-to-back years to the eventual Stanley Cup champions. And I think that, you know, it's easy for casual fans out there who aren't necessarily really looking at this stuff

more closely to just look at that and think that there's something inherently wrong with Bruce Boudreau or his teams that's kind of stopping them short from reaching the mountaintop. But then if you just kind of think about it a bit more critically, it's like, well, that's a problem. pretty good spot to be. And if you're constantly winning enough games to even give yourself a chance to begin with like that, and I think that Bruce Boudreau is shown time and time again. This is this third team now that he's really succeeded with in the regular season, that he's a pretty good coach and pretty good at sort of pushing the right buttons or pulling the right strings. Yeah, and never really had a slide in any of those places, like a major slide back or a major really bad season when he

was playing with those great teams, even though you mentioned goaltending, and that's the biggest, maybe the biggest difference. I think there's two things about this roster that he did not have in Anaheim and he didn't have in Washington. One of them is Devin Dubnick, who is playing at over the last three years. I think he has either the highest or second highest save percentage of any goalie in the league. And right now he's got a 933. Boudreau has not had that. I mean, he was running Jose Teodor out there and Michael Neuiverth. And then in Anaheim, it's Frederick Anderson, Jonas Hiller, and early Gibson. and he played three different goalies in two playoffs here he's one year,

just trying to find one guy to catch some fire. And now he's not going to have that issue at all. He knows who in the playoffs is going to be his goaltender. The other thing that's a little bit different is that those other two rosters in Washington and Anaheim, they were top heavy with superstars. Your Getslap and you're Perry, and then Kessler a little later on there. And then in Washington, you know, your salmon, your backstores. from you,

We're Ovechkin, but I don't know if he's ever played or had a team that had four lines that could score. Right now, Chris Stewart is playing on the fourth line, and we know that Chris Stewart is a pretty flawed player, but if he's on your fourth line, he's scoring a handful of goals,

I mean, that's more than he's usually had, I think, and also like three lines deep that he can shuffle when necessary. They decided last night to put Charlie Coyle at center because he was struggling and then Coyle comes out with the three-point night. So he's got more roster flexibility, I think, than maybe he's ever had before. And instead of relying so much on two or three stars to carry everybody, now it's seven or

eight players deep that anybody could step up at any nights. I think that that's kind of a change for him roster-wise. Yeah, for sure. I mean, in preparation for the show, I was looking at the various seasons he's had at coaching those teams. And over 10 seasons, he's won like 440 games or something like that. I calculate it's like 66% of the possible points in those games, which is an 82 game average of a 108 point season. It's like that is his average, which is remarkable. And it's crazy that he's been fired twice in the past decade considering that.

Yeah, you know, even for me, though, I had it in my mind that he lost a bunch of game sevens and that he always had superstars. And superstars win in the league, obviously. You look at Edmonton and how they play when McDavid is on the ice and when he's off the ice. is like they're not even close to a good team when he's off the ice, but he's carrying them to being relevant. And that does happen a lot in the league. So, you know, I thought, well, he's always had these Hall of Fame players on his team. So I guess he should have won. And, hey, look, when he's coaching in Anaheim, you know, I'm watching some games enough to know what's going on, but not on a night-to-night basis. So this is the first time that I've really had an opportunity to see the tweaks, to see the logic in the moves, and to see, uh, to see,

how he's put his lines together and how he's playing and how that maximizes the skills of some of his players. There's no better example than Mikhail Granland, who last year was being used as a center and was being started in the offensive zone all the time to protect his defensive ability, and Brudrow moved him to a wing to play him with Miko Kovu, and they start in the defensive zone all the time now to create transition so he can carry the puck through the neutral zone, get it in over the line and have Jason Zucker fly to the net. I mean, it's like this, it's really like a strategy that you can just see on ice and see on paper and see his wheels turning with it.

And it's basically the best line in hockey right now, those three guys. And I think that that's the thing that he came in and looked at every player's skill set and decided how he wanted to use them as opposed to looking at how they were used in the past and just trying to fill in the pieces there. because there are some guys who have just undergone major changes in how they were used under Mike Yell. Yeah. Well, I think that that was the exact formula for people that were sort of picking the wild as their trendy sleeper pick or the team that they were picking to kind of improve this season under Boudreau just because of his track record.

It was that, you know, they had this team full of tantalizing kind of undeniably skilled players that for whatever reason hadn't really reached their potential up until this point. And as you mentioned, Granlin is the perfect example of that where, We saw that combination with him and Kauivu internationally, and they did really well, and you wondered whether they'd take that over here to the NHL as well, and it's worked wonders. I mean, they've played like 400 minutes together now, and they're controlling, what, 55% of the shots, 70% of the scoring chances, and 80% of the goals. Like, it's absurd.

They're one of the most productive lines in the league, and I think it is one of those things. It's, like, the funnest thing about hockey is sort of what makes it so beautiful is when the whole is greater than the sum of a parts, just because stylistically, the skill sets match up, as you mentioned, with Zucker's speed flying and Grandland's natural playmaking ability and Koiw's ability to sort of win the puck and do the dirty work. And it's all just kind of made sense together. Yeah. And then the defensemen are a big part of that too. So if you, I mean, you can almost see it in your mind. If you've got a defensive zone faceoff, you've got this reliable defensive center who wins 55% of the faceoffs, which as you know, the faceoff thing is

majorly overrated. But if your guy wins 55% in the, the D zone that gives you some opportunities to get going through the neutral zone. But you have to have defensemen who can make that play up to the wingers too, because what I've noticed with Boudreau is that he puts a ton of trust in his defenseman to protect the puck and not turn it over because the wingers escape the zone fast. As soon as they get the puck, those guys are gone, which sometimes turns into a bad turnover and a two-on-one or something like that, but a lot more times when you have really good players, Jared Spurgeon is as good as it gets for handling the puck. Ryan Suter, of course, you know how good he is. And then they've got some other guys, too.

You know, Marco Scandela is a pretty good passer. When Jonas Brodine was playing, he's okay at passing. He's more of your shutdown guy. But then a lot of times, they'll play him with somebody like Matt Dumbah, who's more offensively skilled. And you can see right there that those skill sets match up too. And I think that that's everything that you could ask for a coach. I mean, this team, you're right. It has a lot of players that were underproducing that everybody knew was really talented. But in any situation, all you're looking for from a coach, you could go to Pittsburgh last year and think about what they did is just use the skill sets the way that they've interlocked together and then put them schematically with the way that maximizes that. So with putting together that HBK line, it's very simple.

to the logic here with a two-way center and Nick Benino, a guy who flies through the neutral zone carrying the puck and Phil Kessel, and then a guy that flies to the net, who's one of the fastest wingers in Carl Hagelin. I think there's a lot of similarities there to the same logic that Boudreau is doing. And I think that this wild team is playing a lot, like tactically, like Pittsburgh did last year. Yeah, you're definitely right about that. I think that, you know, you did mention the face-off thing there early on in that point. we got to talk about a little bit just because for people that missed it yesterday, Patrick O'Sullivan on Twitter went on this wild rant about it. And I know that hockey fans want to make faceoffs a big thing.

And you're right, obviously winning a higher percentage of draws in your own zone is a good thing. And I think that what gets mischaracterized with faceoffs is that no one's arguing that, you know, they're completely without any value or anything like that. But it's like if you're winning a bunch of faceoffs, but then the overall results in terms of shot metrics and everything like that isn't in your favor, then that probably means that you're not making much use of those faceoff draws, right? It's just another puck battle. And if you win the draw, but then instantly lose possession right after that, then it was all kind of for naught.

So I think that's when there's a bit of a pushback to face off stats being cited constantly on broadcast and being brought up by people. I think that's where we're getting at with it. Yeah, there's a few things there that always stick in me. This guy is amazing in faceoffs and wins. 51%. Okay. I mean, over a whole game or over a whole season, how many more faceoffs are you actually getting? And I always think of it is, unless you have someone like Koi Voo, who's up in that 55% range, or there are some guys who get to your 60%. You're basically, it's a coin flip every time. And it's what you do with it when you win the coin flip or don't win the coin flip that really matters.

And it's sort of speaking about broadcasts, they obsess over it in a. obsess over and obsess over it to where you'll have a face-off one in the offensive zone and a goal scored 30 seconds later and the broadcast goes all the way back. Look at this. It starts with this face-off. Like, okay, well, they won about 15 of those in this game in the offensive zone and never came close to scoring until now. And you're always going to get those every single game.

So yeah, you're right. It's really the obsession with the statistic that drives me nuts. And with any hockey play, you can rewind the tape. five moves back and start blaming people or start giving us assigning credit or blame to certain events. You're like that that happened like a bunch of times during this game. It's always like we love to blame somebody for a goal. Look, look who had that turnover way back there 14 seconds ago. Like, okay, well, they had three different opportunities to stop it after that.

And now you're blaming that guy. So coaches do it too. And coaches over-obsessed sometimes with the faceoffs too. but, you know, in this case with the wild and how Boudreau is using them is exactly, in my mind, what you should think as a head coach is, all right, so we've got this many defensive face-offs per game, defensive zone face-offs, who can we get out there that gives us the best chance to score on the other end because we can get in transition fast? That statistic with the offensive and defensive zone starts has always been fascinating

to me. I don't know about with you, but like you can get a little bit of a window into coach's minds about how they want to use a guy. And I always thought that, you know, sometimes we would say, well, this guy has got this coursey despite having the faceoffs in this zone. It's like, well, if it's Bergeron, they're going to start offense on the other end, right? I mean, there was a year where Crosby was like 40% defensive zone. And like, well, right, but every time he wins one, they get going and they get down to the other end,

as opposed to someone like a Paul Gostad who's going to win it and have your defenseman ship it out and change. Yeah, that's the right way to approach it, where the faceoffs are sort of the starting point, but it's what you do after that does ultimately determine whether it was a successful shift or not. And I think that especially when, like on special teams, for example, or something like, it's very easy to point to a one draw or a lost draw depending on which team's perspective you're looking at it from. And if it leads to a goal, it's easy to kind of just point back then and be like, well, if this didn't happen, maybe this goal wouldn't have occurred. And that's probably true.

But I think that you've got to take a big picture of you of it and realize that, like one or two draws here and there over the grand scheme of things probably isn't making that big a difference. Yeah, yeah, exactly. And like what you're talking about, usually you can count how many events that had to happen in between or even just if someone wins one right off a faceoff, usually the goalie should probably stop it, right? Or somebody accidentally screen their own goalie or there was a tip or whatever.

So, yeah, I mean, I'm completely 100% with you there, though I'll still give Miko Kovu credit for winning 55%. I think that's fair. I think that's fair. Yeah, no, it's, you know, we've mentioned the the Granland Koiw-Zucker line, and they've sort of emerged as the top line here. But I mean, even like a guy like Eric Stahl, I think that we need to give him a bit of love. He's been a fantastic get for them. I think that this summer, I have to admit, I was a bit skeptical about him because his numbers had been trending downwards, particularly sort of the rate stats and his shot generation numbers. And I thought that, you know, like, it was a miscalculation, in my opinion for the Rangers to give up multiple assets for him at the deadline last year because I didn't

think he'd move the needle for him in that type of fashion how he might have five or six years ago. And I was worried about what kind of contract he might get, but he got three years, 3.5 per, which is perfectly reasonable for sort of a middle six guy there. And he's looked awesome under Boudreau. And I don't know, like, is it just been one of these things where he just looks physically rejuvenated? Or like, how would you describe it? Because he watching him, he kind of looks like a different player than what I saw the past couple years. Is it maybe just being being in a kind of more pleasant winning environment that's helping him. I like, what's going on with him?

Yeah, I think there's also just better players around him. And systematically, you know, you know this with Carolina, that what are we going on? Like five straight years of them dominating the shot counter, but not really like scoring goals. I mean, they're kind of going for the L.A. King's model there, only it's really the poor man's version. And I don't think that that really fits Eric Stahl,

that taking a bunch of shots and hoping for rebounds or hoping for tips, things going in. I mean, this guy is one of the great playmakers of the last decade, right? I mean, a number one overall pick and a guy who's just phenomenal at handling the puck and creating space and time for himself in the offensive zone, that firing shots as soon as you walk into the blue line doesn't really connect with stall. And I think for somebody like the Kings, that would work if you fire a shot at the goalie and then it bounces into the corner and then you just have like monstrous dudes winning battles

all the time in the corners like, you know, Copatar or many of the other giant men that they were running out at their best. Again, I don't think that that fits all because he's not a fast guy. That was my concern with him coming to Minnesota was, all right, so he doesn't really skate very fast. Are they going to be able to play fast like Bruce Boudreau wants? But as you would know, the difference between being fast at skating and playing fast is significant because he can get the puck and move it quickly. And I also think that there was a time especially this year and it's been shuffled around since, but where he and Nino Nita Ryder were playing together, and those are just two guys who are dominant on the puck in the offensive zone, and they were

unbeatable together. And when we get to the playoffs, I think those two probably end up back together. But that was a big part of Stahl's production, a big part of him getting off to a good start in Minnesota, was being able to play with Niederrider, who in my mind, might be, be the most underappreciated NHL player in the league. I mean, he is dominant on the puck all the time and can score and can make plays and is just

a pain in the neck to play against. He back checks hard. He's like the whole package to me. And so I think that helps stall quite a bit. Not only the idea in Boudreau's mind of playing for one good shot as opposed to a lot of shots,

but also having someone as good as Needer rider playing next to him. Well, that's what I'm curious about when we reached the postseason with this team just from, you know, the playoffs always kind of turn into this chess match where X's and O's. And I'm very curious. I know that for a while there, they were just loading up and basically playing needer rider coil and stall together. And that line was absolutely dominating pretty much by any metric you'd look at. And, you know, it makes sense now for the regular season where it's a bit more of a marathon and you want to get guys like Paris and Palminville going a bit more. And you put you bring in, bring up Alex

talk from the HL and give, you know, put him in a cushy season. spot right off the bat. But I'm wondering that if you reach a playoff series, would you kind of load up and just have those top two lines with the Koebu line and then the stall line? Or would you, do you think it's more optimal to split it up this way and kind of try to get three lines going at the same time? Yeah, that's, you know, the biggest question for me when it comes to playoffs is will they add one more guy to give them like maximum roster flexibility? Because I think Eric Howla is a very nice player as a like a third line center and that they can put people with Eric Howla and have them succeed because he can carry the puck through the neutral

zone. He's so fast. He's got to be one of the faster skaters with the puck in the league. But the interesting dynamic that's going on with this wild team is the line that you mentioned with Stahl and Nieder Rider and Coyle, and then if you think your second line is the one we were talking about with Coyvoo and Granland and Zucker, well, that leaves Zach Porese as a third liner. And I think at this point in his career, Jason Pommonville is probably okay with playing next to Eric Hala and being on the third line. And Pommonville's having like him and everybody else, right? But Pommonville's having a very good year after starting out slow. But with Porese, you're talking about a guy who's like a $10 million player who is basically at this point in his career a third

liner. And you would think that that would be just fine for a playoff series. Because those to me are the optimal lines for playoff series. And if Zach Parise is your third line winger, you should be in great shape. That's a better winger than you're going to run into on most third lines. It's just, is he going to accept the kind of role that he's got to play there? Because that's not going to be a line that's going to score as much as some of the other lines. That's a line that you probably throw out there to maybe shut down another team's line,

because Parisi is still playing very good defensively, and I think Howla, with his skating ability, can match up with almost anybody. So that to me is one of the fascinating dynamics that's kind of going to be brewing as we go into the playoffs. If they added one more forward, then it would give them some flexibility to shuffle around even more. But, yeah, those two lines, though,

I mean, you look at the numbers and how they performed, how could you have Parisi on any of those lines? how could you mix them up going into the playoffs when they've scored 60 or 70% of the goals in the regular season? Yeah, no, they've been insanely dominant. I think that, you know, it's an interesting point with the guy like Parizet and Palmaville. And, you know, for a while there, I think it was a couple summers or so that, you know, the wild were trying to prove to either themselves or the rest of the league that they needed to be taken seriously. And then they were, you know, for real.

And they were kind of announcing their arrival onto their main stage. And that's when they threw a bunch of money at guys like Souter and Parizet and Palmindville. and I think that now it's kind of funny because especially, you know, Souter is still one of their top guys, but the other guys are obviously on poor contracts based on how well they're playing and what they're asked to do on this team. But it's just like, it's easy to forget where they were at a few years ago compared to now and just how much the landscape changed for them. Yeah, I agree with you.

And the other thing is, too, when Zach Poresse was coming off of a couple of really great years in New Jersey, for probably a three-year stretch, he's like a top five player in the league. And then even, even. after that, when they signed him, you're still talking about probably top 15 or 20. And he comes to you and says, I want to sign in Minnesota when you've struggled for a long time. How do you turn them down? And you also probably couldn't anticipate where things were going to go CBA-wise, you know,

to know that that contract was going to be just a huge problem for you down the road. But, you know, obviously signing a guy to a 72-year contract, eventually he's going to get on the other side of his prime. It's just who's saying no to Parisei at that time because he was such a dominant player. But, you know, it could still work because you have guys on these RFA deals. So they're not making a whole lot, despite how good they're playing with Zucker and Niederreiteriter and Coil and Grannelin. These guys are making pennies for what they probably deserve for their production. So if you have a couple other guys who are really overpaid for what they're giving you,

and other guys on really favorable contracts, you're okay for right now. But it's a reason that the wild should really be thinking about who can we add at the deadline, if anybody, because things get really hairy for them after this season. You've got the expansion draft, and if Las Vegas wants a good Minnesota wild player, they'll get one because I was playing around with that tool on capfriendly.com,

and they can't protect everybody who's good, unless they make a trade or unless they try to somehow influence Las Vegas not to pick one of their really good players. But if Vegas wants someone like Jason Zucker, they can get him. And so there's that. And then there's also, you know, RFA deals are going to come up. And when you have monster years, I think Granlins is up this year. If he's a point per game player, what's he going to be asking for?

And then how do you handle it after that will be really tough for Chuck Fletcher? so they should kind of look at this year like, you know, this is our year to get this done. Yeah. Yeah. And Needer Rider as well, who's actually leading the team in goals right now with I think 17 of them is also up for a new deal. And he'll probably get a nice raise from the sub three he's getting right now. But no, I know that you've written in the recent past about potential targets. And, you know, Marty Hansel is a guy that's very fascinating for this team because if you brought him and put him down the middle,

then you really could explore putting stall in quotes. together on one line full time and just then having three dominant lines there. But you could also conceivably go for, you know, a guy that's going to come with a smaller price on the wing and then keep coil down the middle and try and have three lines that way. So, you know, there's options here. I think that what we've heard early on for the asking prices for garlic, Marty Hansel make me a bit nervous if, you know, if I was going to try and get him because they're asking for like a first round pick and a top prospect and something like that.

And I think that's a pretty exorbitant price to pay for a guy who might be playing for you for 20 or 30 games at tops. But it's like, you know, this wild team right now needs to do something because they have as good of a chance as anyone to come out of the West. And I think they wouldn't, you know, they'd be doing themselves at this service if they didn't explore every possible avenue to really kind of put themselves over the top with one extra player. Yeah, I like the idea of Hansel at the right price.

Like you said, if you're talking about a first round pick, you can just end it right there. If you want something else after that, sorry, this conversation has been over already at first round pick. But of course, if you're the coyote, wouldn't you want to say to whatever reporter you like, yeah, we're getting so many offers right now for Hansel. We just, we can't, our email is jammed, it's full, the inbox, we can't,

people are having to use LinkedIn direct messaging to send us offers because everything else is broken. That's what I would do if I were in their front office. So I have a tough time buying that that's really going to be the price. Although we've seen some of those role players, Paul Gostad is one of them, and, uh, Antoine Vermont Vermet is another one who pulled in a first round pick stunningly at the trade deadline. I don't think the wild would be willing to spend that because they can see a core here that could be good for a very long time.

I think a lot of people came into the season saying a suitor and Parisi are on their last leg. So if you don't get it done now, your franchise is in trouble. And now so many guys are on the upswing as a young core, you're saying, well, actually, they could be good for a very long time. if they can keep these guys together so you don't want to sell off the farm and give away first round picks. The other guy that comes to mind, and I do like your idea of a winger now with Coyle moving back to center with that possibility. The other guy that comes to mind is a guy that I never thought would, which is Brian Boyle, because he's going to be a free agent.

And Tampa Bay is, I can't believe where they're at right now. I mean, even with Stamco's going out, I still can't believe their position in the East right now. And Boyle is kind of Hansel-like with size and could play kind of a fourth-line center role. And I think that if the Wild want to win the Stanley Cup, that's where they need to beat teams is in the depth. Because they don't have Kopitar. They don't have Patrick Kane. They don't have Connor McDavid. They do not have the best player on the ice in a playoff series, more likely than not.

Or Ryan Gets left. They don't have the mega-star guy. So they've got to beat them with four lines. and if you look around, L.A., San Jose, Chicago, these are not teams that have stupendous third and fourth lines

that if you added a Brian Boyle and you had him playing with Chris Stewart, I mean, those are guys that have played higher than that during their career and would be pretty tough to go, even if it's only eight or nine minutes a game, but those are eight or nine minutes that you could win with those guys.

Right. Yeah, I know in a playoff series, if you're the wild, you want to just keep coming in waves with other team basically, just make sure that, when your opposition's depth falls off a bit and they have to send out their fourth line, that you're, like, dominating those shifts because if you have, you know, if they add another guy here and they have three scoring, legitimate score lines,

and I think Marty Hansel would fit that much more than a guy like Brian Boywood. It would open up the opportunity for them to sort of just be very tough to game plan against because if you're an opposing team, like, let's say you're the Kings and you're sending out Kopitar and Dowdy and you're trying to shut down a line, like I guess you'd go after the Randland line just because of how frequently they've been generating goals. But I mean, then that opens the door for the Eric Stahl's line, for example. And it's really tough to game plan against a team when you have so many options like that. Yeah.

And what's really interesting in terms of other teams matching up, and I'm not sure anyone's really figured it out yet, is just that usually it's kind of, we look at it, like center versus center, right? All right, here comes Taves and Kopitar going up against each other. Or here's, you know, Joe Thornton and Sidney Crosby. But in this case, if you're going to match up with them, it's really kind of like your wingers and defensemen against Zucker and Grandin's speed through the neutral zone. And nobody's been able to stop them yet, especially with Zucker is just flying full speed at defensemen who are skating backwards. And he's getting that edge like a wide receiver running a go route, right?

I mean, he's getting that edge so often. And he's finding himself in front of the net with speed and with room to make a play when he gets the puck from Granland. And so it's kind of going to be whose defensemen can skate with him or how can they slow those guys down from even getting the puck? Can they, you know, get in passing lanes from the defensemen? It's going to be that it's the best part of the playoffs, right? Like watching the wheels turn and watching the coaches make those adjustments. But that to me is going to be the line that you're really focused on. My thought about Boyle was that Eric Howla can continue to play a third line center because, I mean, I think he's a little underappreciated probably.

I mean, he gets bumped down now by quite a few guys. But, I mean, this year he's got 16 even strength points, a pretty solid even strength scoring rate, and he's a great skater. So if he's playing along with Parise and Pommonville, and then your fourth line has the big monster guys in, you know, Boyle and Stewart or something like that, like I think that ends up being pretty tough to match up against.

Now, Hansel would make it even harder because that would bump Howla down to a fourth line, and then you'd have some serious speed, on your fourth line too. And then you're talking about who can match up with that type of speed on a fourth line. Well, I think the other thing to note here in terms of the asking prices for some of these players is like, just if you look at the way this front office has drafted the past few years, I would want to make sure they have as many picks as possible because, I mean, we saw that

in the world juniors a couple months ago, like they were just loaded with guys that they draft for the past few years, whether it was, you know, Eric Seneck or Greenway or Caprizov or Luke Cunning. and I, you know, if I was, I would, I would be reticent to give away any draft picks just here or there just to try and load up now just because of you want to keep that cycle going, especially for this franchise where, you know, they're doing this whole thing where they're just kind of regenerating talent and making sure they're as deep as possible. I think that's a huge luxury for them. Yeah. And I got to see Eric Seneck early in the season in preseason and in the NHL. And that's a guy who you can slot in for an NHL for a long time. He's a real, he's a really good. player. Smart player, like a two-way guy, he can score. Like, okay, so this team is one that's built to last for quite a long time. And that's why there's like two camps with even in the roster. And the thing that I think that they have to figure out is how much longer they have with Ryan Suter, because

he is playing at an extremely high level from what I've watched this year. And maybe the best that I've seen him, of course, watching him up close. Maybe you see the intricacies. a little bit more of just how good he is. But he's 32 years old, so how much longer do you have him as a number one defenseman? Or do you think that, you know, you could go with the similar strategy of having three pairs, but then you got to make sure you don't lose one of them to Las Vegas. The conversation that was going on before they got so hot was, are they going to trade one of these defensemen?

Because it's kind of been interesting. Brodine went down, and they haven't really missed a beat since Brodine went down. So that would be one of the guys you could lose in the expansion draft. Would they consider trading him, and his name has been on the block for, I don't know how long? Would they consider trading him to bring back another winger or another scorer potentially? I mean, you think about what Edmonton got for Adam or gave away for Adam Larson. Like defensemen are at a premium. So if you're the wild and you see your team succeed this much without Brodine, who might be replaceable,

then, you know, maybe you're really going for it there. It's a very fascinating dynamic to see what they're going to do heading into this deadline. But to your point, I think wild fans probably feel like, well, this is what we've built up to for a while, but this team should be toward the top of the central. And, you know, and you know that with a salary cap, they sort of cycle through where the best teams end up being the worst

and the worst end up being the best after a while. So, you know, drafting for a long time, it seems like they've really put it together quite well here. And the Nieder Rider trade is just highway robbery. I mean, we'll talk about the Tyler Sagan trade forever, but like this one is almost as bad. Maybe not quite, but it's almost as bad. Kale Clutterbuck for Nino Nieder Rider is an incredible trade for the while.

Yeah. Well, especially when the Islanders just doubled down and gave Clutterbuck a massive extension as well to kind of justify that trade, it's like a double whammy for them. I'm glad you brought up Ryan's, student because it's a subject that's fascinating me for some time now because obviously, you know, he's a very productive, good player, but it's like there's a camp that thinks that he's one of the top, however many defensive in the league, because he plays so much and he seems

to do it kind of effortlessly. But then the underlying numbers, particularly this year, have cratered quite a bit for him. And, you know, he's not playing the 29 plus minutes. He was playing a few years ago, which seemed absurd. But still 27 or so in today's NHL is pretty high. I think he's in the top three in the league. And I just wonder, like, for this team, is it, is it an optimal way to use him? I mean, he's getting up there in age. He's getting up there in miles. There's still quite a few years left on that contract. And it seems like they, if anyone's, you know, able to preserve him, it would be them just based on the depth they have. They could give some of these other guys, like a Matt Dunbar or Marco Scandella, a few more

minutes along a leash and kind of toned down suitors usage in the regular season at least. But they've seemed kind of unwilling to do that for whatever reason. And I just, I just wonder how much of his underlying numbers not being that good is just because of him having to play so much that he can't really expend full amount of energy on every shift. Yeah, the thing about the coursey numbers and defensemen is really caught my eye recently because I think one thing is that every team started to, maybe not every single team, but a lot of teams started to look into the stats and hire stats people and try to understand the stats better and start to factor for Corsi or try to maximize Corsi, right?

And I think what we've seen is a lot of times with some of these defensemen, how you're asked to play, like what your specific role is on the ice might determine what your coursey is more than whether you're playing your role well. And I feel this way about Ryan Suter. And the opposite example is Brooks Orpick. Like a few years ago, we were looking at Brooks Orpick's underlying numbers and saying, oh my gosh, this guy cannot play anymore. He just needs to retire.

And then Washington gives him this huge deal. And right now, he's one of Washington's top coursey guys. Well, that's not because of him, right? He's not good with the puck. I mean, that's got to be because of how they're asking to play, who they're playing him with, what the style is. And what I see with Ryan Souter, that's why the numbers that have started to fascinate me are the high danger shots.

because an NHL, former NHL coach pointed this out to me because I asked, Rasmus Ristel-Laynan is another one who gets debated a lot on Corsi Twitter. And so I asked the former NHL coach, I said, what do you think the deal with this is? Because I watched this guy from the AHL when I was working in Buffalo to the NHL, and I've talked to how many players and coaches, everybody thinks this guy's good. And he said, well, watch what they're asking him to do. they're asking him to give up the blue line to skate right to the front of the net because he's so huge that he's supposed to be the net front presence and make sure

that nobody gets in that high danger zone. That's his job on a lot of plays. And oh, that's interesting. And as I started to watch it more and more, and then look at how the numbers match up with someone like Ryan Souter and Ristolin, there aren't that many shots in the high danger zone when you're looking at those stats, but there are a ton of shots overall. And then you can look at those charts and things like that.

So I wonder if some teams went, yeah, we'll let everybody coursey all they want, but we're not going to let them get there. And I think that was Brooks Orpick's job in Pittsburgh probably too. And thinking about it, let's see, who was the coach when Orpick had that terrible coursey, Dan Bilesma, the same coach as is the Sabres right now with Rasmus Ristel Leinen. So probably a similar strategy. And I see it with Souter all the time. I mean, he goes right to the front of the net and very few people are able to get there. he's great at eliminating high-skill players from the puck and things like that. And his numbers are way in his favor for the high-danger shots.

I think it's like 57% or something very high. And then with the overall shots, it's like 48%. So I think it's becoming more and more challenging for us as stat nerds to figure out which of the coursey numbers are really telling us how a guy's playing and which of them are telling us more about how he's being asked to play. Yeah. I mean, what wakes the wild as a team fascinating statistically in that regard is that, you know, they're hovering only around 50% in attempts, but then if you look at scoring chances, they're first in the league and their second and expected goals. And that clearly some's going on there. But I think that, you know, with the individual cases, like with a guy like Rislainen, for example, or even Ryan Sear, like, the question to me is whether that's, you know, if it is a concerted effort of giving up the zone and just making sure you're not, you're kind of clearing out in front of your net. Like, I'm wondering if that is the most. optimal strategy because obviously, you know, that's where most of the goals are scored. But if you're just constantly getting peppered by shots, then that's sort of in turn kind of

killing your own offense the other way because you're basically just spending most of your shift in your own zone. And I just wonder whether, you know, you'd be better off actually pursuing the puck and trying to break it up as soon as possible so that you can transition and move the puck the other way. Yeah, I think part of it for both of those guys, what suitor and wrist the line have in common is how much they play. I mean, both of those guys are two of the, I could look this up quick, but only a few players in the league have cleared 1,000 minutes as we speak right here in just over 50 games. And Suter and Ristelainen are both of them. And I think you're talking about two pretty burly guys too. Muscular takes a lot more effort, right, for them to skate than say, Jared Spurgeon. So that's your, now this is where it differs a ton between the two teams is that Boudro has put Jared Spurgeon with Ryan Suter. So, okay, you protect the net and you carry the puck, right? You've got that good combination. In Buffalo, they were playing

Ristolina with Josh Georges, who's like a second pair HL defenseman at this point. So it's like, that doesn't make any sense. And none of the other guys that they have make any sense to carry the puck either. I mean, Jake McCabe's not great at it. Dmitry Kulikoff isn't great at it. I know you probably have a Dmitri bias, but he's not a great puck carrier either. So it's like, that's hurting him even more if that's what he's asked to do. I mean, at least in the results, For goals, it's worked really well, right, with those two. Okay, you can give up those outside shots because we have one of the best goalies in the league, and we're going to make sure that the top scores don't get in front of our net.

And the same thing goes with the opposite strategy for offense, that we're not going to try and pepper the other team with shots. We're going to play for one shot with speed in transition. If you really want to go all in stats across the Royal Road, right, you know, or something like that. you could be talking about setting up one-timer, setting up tap-ins. That seems to be their goal. I don't think Bruce Boudreau really is concerned with what his coursey number is. I think that he's decided I'm going to go all in with trying to create the highest percentage scoring chances I can for a lot of really skilled players.

I don't think you could execute this successfully without a whole team of skill players. If you've got a handful of guys who are just bangers and then you relied on a couple top skill players, kind of like LA a few years ago. I mean, that's different. If they tried to play this way, they would be in a lot of trouble. But just to even further the point on how different defensemen play can be, I mean, L.A. has Dowdy carrying the puck like a point guard.

I mean, he's just always bringing it up and looking how to distribute it. And Souter is the exact opposite way. So your number one defenseman isn't my number one defenseman. You know what I mean? Yeah. And listen, it's impossible to argue with there's a result. they're running away with the Central and the Western Conference right now and their goal differentials through the roof.

I think they're like second and goals per game and third and third fewest goals against per game. So like they're clearly doing something right. But I just like I think the hesitation for me is we haven't really seen a team. Every time we kind of pronounce a team is like kind of quote unquote figuring it out or or beating the system eventually wind up coming back down earth. We haven't really seen anyone consistently do this for from one year to the next. I guess the New York Rangers over the past handful of years. have probably been the closest, but, you know, a lot of that has to do with the fact that

Henrik Lunkwis has been amazing. So I'm just like, I'm kind of curious to see, not even just this year, but, you know, next year if they keep playing this way, whether the results wind up being the same, because that would, that would be very telling if they're actually have stumbled upon something or if it was just one of those aberrations where they were running a bit hot and been a midfortunate. Yeah, you know, it's an interesting thing because if you think about how baseball shape shifted from the money ball era, everybody wanted the on-base guy. It was like, that's the way to spot guys. That's how Boston did it and copied it from Oakland and right.

Oh, we're going to get all these on base guys. And then, you know, the Kansas City Royals got all these incredible fielders. They had, they were eight other guys were like well above average in fielding, right? And then they didn't strike out at all, which was for a long time thought to not really matter that much. Statistically, or a lot of the stats, people said, who cares if he strikes out a lot if he also hits dingers? But then Kansas City didn't hit many dingers. They hit a lot of singles and they didn't strike out much. And I think maybe Kansas City part of their, it was part of it was a reaction to what everybody else was doing.

Even the Oakland A's themselves went away from the on-base guys and went to the platoon guys because everybody was taking up all the on-base guys. You know what I mean? So this might be a case of a team sees everybody else or it might not be that deep. I don't know. It might just be Boudreau says, hey, guys, skate real fast. Yeah. But at least the way it works in my mind is everybody else or a lot of other teams are trying to get that edge by going with controlling the shot counter. So you're saying, let's use in soccer it's the way, right? Like a lot of teams use the counter punch.

They sort of hang back and hang back. And then when they get a real shot, then they go for it. And their shot numbers don't look as good, but they can still win. That's the case for it. The other case for it to me is, you know, when you look at the West, I just don't think it has a team this year other than the Wild who really stands out like they might have before. You know, I think in the past the Wild probably weren't as good

and weren't being coached by anyone near as good as Bruce Boudreau. But they were also, every year, it's like, well, here's Chicago, mid-d Dynasty. Here's L.A., or even St. Louis was much better for a time than they are now. So here's all these teams in the West that are hitting their prime and the wild weren't quite there yet. And now I think we're seeing a little bit of a sea change there. Yeah. I think it's pretty clear that my top two at least is the wild and the sharks. And then I think there's a pretty big drop off whoever your third team is.

And that is definitely a change from the past. And it leaves a wide open, which I think is going to make the postseason pretty exciting this year. So I'm definitely looking forward to that. Matthew, where can people check out your work online and follow you on Twitter? 1,500 ESPN.com is one. Also the NHL page for ESPN.com. I write a weekly column there. And Twitter, I am at Matthew Coller, M-A-T-T-H-E-W-C-O-L-L-E-R.

So there you go. Well, things are taking the time to chat, man. You picked a good time to go from Buffalo to Minnesota. Things are working out pretty well for you this year. I sure did. And I'm very happy for you with the success of this podcast, because I had you on a podcast a long time ago. when I used to do things for hockey prospectus,

and love your work, love the podcast. So I'm very thrilled for you that it's doing well. Well, that kind of flattery will always get you back on the show, my man. Let's definitely stay in touch and talk soon, okay? All right, thanks a lot to meet you. Have a good one. Follow on Twitter at Dim Philipovich and on SoundCloud at soundcloud. At soundcloud.com slash hockeypedocast.