The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 139: Here Come The Oilers

Episode Date: February 15, 2017

Jonathan Willis joins the show to help discuss Connor McDavid's greatness, whether there's enough behind him to win now, and why some historical comparables make Milan Lucic's struggles this year even more troublesome. Here’s a quick rundown of the topics covered: 1:00 What makes Connor McDavid so special? 9:30 Is there enough behind McDavid when he's not on the ice? 19:00 Going for it while your stars are still on ELCs 24:20 Milan Lucic's season from hell 34:10 Are they riding Cam Talbot into the ground? 42:30 Potential upgrades on the blueline 50:00 A few wrinkles that could affect the Trade Deadline Every episode of the podcast is available on iTunes, Soundcloud, and Stitcher. All past shows can be found here listed in chronological order. Make sure to subscribe so that you don’t miss out on any new episodes as they’re released. All ratings and reviews of the show are also greatly appreciated. Thanks for listening! See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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My name is Demetri Filipovich. and is joining me is Jonathan Wilson. Jonathan, what's going on, man? Again, Dimitri, good to be back. It's good to have you, man. You know what? I think we're both doing better these days than someone like Milan Luch is. I feel like that's fair to say. I don't know. I think if I were to compare my paycheck to Milan's paycheck, he might have a little bit to gloat about. Listen, Jonathan, there's more to life than just financial incentives, okay?

It's how fulfilling you feel you're doing your business. job how well how well things are going you know it's not just the money i mean obviously uh it's easy for me to say that when i'm not making nearly as much as he is but uh no it's um listen it's uh we'll get to luch in a second i feel like that's the big elephant in the room but let's talk about the oilers as a whole i'm glad to have you on the show because uh we've been doing this adoption series in the pedio cast where we pick one team for each show and do a do a deep dive on him and sort of devote the full episode to them and while i know that you cover the the league in its entirety and have a pretty good

sort of eye for what's going on with each team. I feel like the Oilers are still the one that you're paying the closest attention to. Yeah, I don't get to watch anybody else nearly as much as I do Edmonton. So yeah, it should be fun. Well, I think that with the Oilers these days, everything justifiably begins and ends with Connor McDavid. And I mean, there's so many sort of hilariously

eye-popping stats that you can cite to show his greatness. but when I was putting together some show notes for this, I was looking, and, you know, obviously it sticks out that he's leading the league right now and counting, counting stats like points and assists and primary assists at 5-1-5, although Crosby is making up some ground and kind of catching up to him, at least in terms of a per game basis. But, I mean, the thing that really kind of caught my eye was he has either a goal or a primary assist on over 30% of Edmonton's 5-on-5 goals this year, which I didn't have a chance to run it for all the other stars in the league.

feel like that's probably one of the highest rates in the league. I mean, like, if you're basically directly responsible for over a third of your team's goals, that means you're probably doing something pretty well. It's funny you mention that because that is one of those stats that I've been meaning to take a deeper dive in. Like you, I know that McDavid is, it seems to me that McDavid has been really dominant there, but I don't have the numbers for all the other players. So it's hard to make that head-to-head comparison without doing that look. If we're picking just one number that stands out to me, McDavid, not only does he drive the power play, but at even strength. I look at Cam Talbot's numbers with and without him at five on five. When he's on the ice

with Edmonton's starting goaltender in net, the Oilers have 54% of the course season, 61% of the goals. And when he's off the ice, and again, Edmonton's starting goalie in net, the Oilers have 48% of the core sees and 46% of the goals. And it's just, it's such a colossal swing. he is the guy at five on five he is the only reliable offensive contributor he's the only really he centers the only really reliable line they have that consistently you know outchutes the opposition by a significant margin every night he just he does everything if if macdavit isn't on the team we're talking about the oilers i think in in the same way we've been talking about them for years and years um going back to the departure of chris pronger yeah no that

I mean, that's the funny thing, right? Where it's easy to sort of spin these narratives about how they made certain moves, you know, bringing in a guy like Adam Larson to really stabilize the blue line and stuff like that. But at the end of the day, without McDavid as being the driving force and the guy that's really making everything happen for everyone else, they're still in that same position. And it kind of just like, you know, whenever we're talking about these teams like the avalanche or the coyotes or whoever is currently rebuilding and trying to kind of find that next wave of talent for their franchise, it pretty much boils down to the fact that if you can find a generational superstar like this,

because that could just expedite the entire process by such a, it's such a kind of just snap of the fingers, basically. Yeah, that's just it. I kind of laugh a little bit when I see people talk about Colorado and say, well, they better follow the Edmonton model. Yeah, absolutely. The Edmonton model is great. Go draft Connor McDavid, then trade for some defensive defensemen.

That's a great model. it's a unique scenario. It's like when Pittsburgh was winning Stanley Cups. You hear the occasional reference to the Pittsburgh model. You can't take the lessons from a team that has a generational superstar and apply them to yourself. Because unless you have that player, it doesn't work. I mean, even look at like the Sabres, for example. I mean, you know, they bought them out for years.

They basically tried to do that. And I think we'd agree that Jack Eichol is a fantastic player. And, you know, he's exceptional to watch. And he's a great goal score. But at the end of the day, like, he's not anywhere near McDavid's level at this point of their career, at least. And if you just took, you just basically swapped those guys. Like, I feel it's pretty fair to say that the Sabres would be much better than they are right now. It's pretty much as simple as that.

Well, and the effect is exaggerated by the way the league has gone towards parity. So if you look at the Eastern Conference standings, Buffalo is a minus 21 goal differential team. I don't know if McDavid over Eichols a 20 goal differential jump, it might be. There are only five points out of the playoffs. Like it's not that big of a leap. And the Oilers, as much as they're good this year, you know, they're great this year. They're a plus 11 team. This isn't a team that is, you know, a Minnesota or.

a Columbus that's just sort of laying waste to everything around them. They're winning, they're a good team. They're winning a lot of close games, but the margin between winning and losing is not that large. And certainly the difference between an Eichler and McDavid could have a massive impact on where the team finishes in the standings. Yeah, for sure. And I was mentioning those stats, McDavid stats earlier.

And I think maybe my favorite actually is that he leads the league right now with 37 drawn penalties. Next best is Nick. dealer is down at 28 and just just for some perspective i mean over the past four seasons no one other than nazim kadri's drawn more than than mcdavid's already drawn this season and he still has 26 games to go so it's just like it's one of those things where i think that the the sort of unique skill above all else the mac david has that i think pretty much no one in the league has up to us up to his level at least is the ability to um just kind of stop and start like that because you know i i

A player that I often rant and rave about online is a guy like Andreas Athanasiu, who I feel like is an exceptional talent and the Red Wing should be, you know, giving much more opportunities to. And I always rant about just how fast he is and how he can go from zero to 100, basically, through the neutral zone and really just create something out of nothing. And I get asked often, you know, how would you compare Athenisu's speed to someone like McDavid's? And I think that it's a conversation at least in terms of just like a pure straight line speed level. but if you're talking, especially in the offensive zone with the puck,

just kind of these like stop and start fast-twitch in small space movements, I mean, McDavid really isn't a class of his own and you just see it based on, I mean, how many penalties he has to draw just because defenders have no other recourse other than to just take him down and go into the box and sit for two minutes. Yeah, his speed is, it's unbelievable. It's funny, when you mention drawn penalties, the first guy that comes to mind to me is somebody like Dustin Brown, who, and I think we can fairly say this without generating too much controversy,

that Dustin Brown's pretty good at drawing calls through, nefarious means. Nefarious means, that's a good way to put it, yeah. And it's complete, and you know, I've seen years where he would leave the league and drawn penalties at five on five or drawn penalties per hour or whatever it was. But Connor McDavid, it's not like that. I can't recall seeing, I can't recall a single play this year. I mean, there's probably one or two, where I saw McDavid go down and thought, well, you know, he went down a little easier, you're looking to draw the call there.

He's just so fast that he doesn't give defenders an opportunity. They don't have a choice. Like, I don't know that I've seen many bad penalties on Connor McDavid this year either. Like, sometimes you just have to take the penalty to prevent a much better scoring chance. And, I mean, when you watch him live, he just, he takes your breath away. There's, there's, he's just, he's an unbelievable skater. Like, when you see him for the first, I remember seeing him for the first time and just going, My God, this guy can skate.

He just flies. Yeah, yeah, for sure. Okay, so, you know, I think the first 10 minutes we've just been focusing on McDavid, and I think that everyone listening to the show probably already realizes just how good he is and what a singular talent he is. So we haven't really kind of illustrated anything important or help teach anyone anything. So let's dive a little bit deeper here. I think that the ultimate question with this team is, especially, you know,

moving forward as we come closer towards the playoffs and potentially a playoff run for them is, is there enough around McDavid to keep them afloat when he's on the ice, when he's on the ice? Because as you mentioned, the splits with him on and off are remarkable. And, you know, one you didn't even mention is they're getting like over 60% of scoring chances with him on the ice and it's down to like 43 without him. And I know that, you know, you can quibble with scoring chance a little bit just in terms of how they're recorded and sort of the definitions of them and the problems with Binning and all that but I mean when you see a difference that big it kind of really helps hammer home the point of just

the quality of what's going on and their ability to do stuff with the puck with him out there versus not so I think that you know we see in the playoffs constantly where yes the stars are obviously very important particularly getting you there and giving you a position to compete on a nightly basis but it is generally these kind of guys that come out of the woodwork out of nowhere to to go on these great runs and unexpectedly at least or play above what they play like in the regular season. And if you look at this roster, is there enough around McDavid to make you believe that, you know, those 35 to 40 minutes when he won't be playing that they'll be able to at least stay afloat?

Well, on paper there is. I mean, if you imagine, if you imagine Edmond's taking a Pittsburgh-like approach, we remember Sidney Crosby, I mean, he played a lot with Patrick Hornquist, but he also had, you know, Connor Shiri on his wing. So you can have a sort of a cheaper first line. So if you imagine Connor McDavid playing with Patrick Maroon and some

rental player, I don't know, Redeem Verbata or somebody in that range, and that's your top line. Then you can imagine a scenario where the Oilers have a Leon dry sidle, Milan Luchich, anchored scoring line behind him, and a Benoit, Ryan Newton Hopkins, Jordan Everleigh

scoring line behind that. And you go, wow, this is a This is a top nine that can really, really compete. This is a team that should be, should have the forward depth to push, push events and, and drive into the playoffs. The problem is that this year, those guys just haven't done that.

Dry Seidels had a good year. He spent a lot of time on Carter McDavid's right wing, and the coaching staff seems to, seems to prefer that. They've split them up for now, but that seems to be something they like. But those other guys, you're Eberle, Luchich,

Pugliaught and Nugent Hopkins, just haven't produced this year. That's been sort of the secondary storyline in Edmonton is the struggles of those guys. Pouliot and Nugent Hopkins haven't had the luxury of playing with McDavid. Everleigh and Luchich have. I think that's part of the reason the first two guys have been less successful than the last two guys. But none of those four is playing up to the level of ability that we would expect based on years past. And unless they do, it's hard to see how these. Oilers get things going in the postseason.

Yeah. Yeah, I mean, that was going to be sort of my next question. I'm glad we're in great minds there. You really stole my talking point. But I think that from the X's and O's perspective, especially in the postseason, that's the fascinating wrinkle to all this, where McDavid and Dreisel, it's not no surprise. Both guys are exceptional players.

But when they put them together, they've been devastatingly good. And it's pretty much been, regardless of who the third guy's been. I feel like you or I could probably just lace up some skates and go out there and just and I feel like they'd probably still be relatively equally productive. Like they're just so insane together. But it kind of really limits them, especially when the other guys aren't producing like this. And, you know, I think they at least, it's good right now for them to at least kind of explore separating them because you know what you're going to get with those two guys together.

But I think that kind of seeing whether a dry sidel who has had some chemistry with Luchich can get him going now is should be something, a directive for the coaching staff to try and figure out over these next couple weeks and months because if you could do that and then you go the McDavid-Jail and then as you mentioned the R&H line down the middle all of a sudden you have this balanced attack where and then even if Mark Letestu is your fourth line center like you don't really have any glaring weaknesses you can basically just roll your lines without any concern of being exposed and sort of the other team picking apart one particular weakness so I think that that is ultimately going to be the thing that's going to determine how far this team can go

moving forward I agree with that one thing I'd add with regard to dry siddle on his own line. There's obviously a lot of incentive to do it for the postseason and to give you sort of that diversified attack. But we're also coming up to a new contract for Leon Drysiddle. And before you sign him to that deal, I think you really want to know whether or not he can drive his own line. I think he probably can. Last year, he was really good with Taylor Hall. This year, he has been good one apart from McDavid. But I'd like to see, you know, a longer run of that. I don't think the Oilers are doing themselves any favors long-term. by putting dry-sidal on McDavid's right-wing in a contract year and sort of robbing themselves

of their last opportunity before signing his new deal to get a look at what he can do as a center on a supporting line, which is a role he's going to have to play for decent stretches going forward, even if he does spend a lot of time at right-wing. Right, and that was my big point of contention with the flames last year, where they never really explored that with Sean Monaghan. And they just basically played him with Johnny Goodrow and they're extremely productive together. And, you know, you just assume, well,

Monaghan's scoring a lot of goals. He must be good. You know, he's young. He has his draft pedigree. Let's give him seven years, $45 million. And he hasn't really shown at this point in his career that he's capable of driving play by himself and being sort of the guy that helps bring along inferior talent around him.

and you don't really want to wind up being on the hook for that extensive, a contract for a guy that is ultimately sort of more of a complimentary supporting player. I mean, you definitely need those guys, but you don't want to be paying a premium just to have them on board. You want to be paying the guys that are actually making those around them significantly better. Yeah, absolutely. It's all about effective allocation of resources. You want as much as possible you want to pay complimentary guys,

cheap rates because you can go out and find those guys anytime. It's also, I find the whole conversation interesting in light of league history over the last decade. Like, you know, since 2010, the most dominant team in the NHL has been the Chicago Blackhawks, and they've done it by having Patrick Kane on one line and Jonathan Taves on the other. And we've seen, like, Joel Quineville has played them together at points, but it's always been a short-term. boost thing in specific situations. And we've seen the way that allows them to get matchups. We've seen the way that having an offensive wing or driving a line is not necessarily

impossible either, which is something you don't see in a lot of places around the league. There seems to be this tendency to focus only on the centers. I don't know why those lessons are not trickling down through all the other teams in league, but they don't seem to be. I feel like you could say that exact sentence about a lot of different things. Yeah, Chicago, Chicago does a lot of smart. There's a reason Chicago's been as good as they are. A lot of it has, I mean, a lot of it obviously has to do with the player talent,

but they've been very smart with how, for the most part, they've been very smart with how they've run their team. And I feel like even though we talk about the NHL being a copycat league all the time, there's still a lot of room for further emulation. Right. And I mean, listen, they're not, you know, without, blame here either they're not necessarily perfect like i mean if you look at the brentz sebrough contract is a great example it's like that would have been a perfect chance for them to sort of

cut bait while they still could but obviously they felt some sort of loyalty to him based on everything he'd done for them over the years and and and they rewarded him for it and listen i mean every team does that in some capacity or another you kind of hope to limit the exposure and sort of the the money you're devoting to it but at the end of day they they still have ultimately done more smart things than not and that's why they are where they're at. Yeah, the Seabrook contract, I think you'd probably get some pushback in places from people who really rate what he does as a player still. I think that's a pretty scary deal myself. But that and the Bickle contract, really the only things you can kind of point to is

Chicago missteps. And then you look at sort of the wealth of talent that Stan Bowman has been willing to cut away from that team, guys that he had. shipped out over the years and you go, wow, this is, this is, this is a ruthless general manager in the best possible sense. But, uh, but I'm going off on a wild digression here. So I'll wrap that up. Yeah. No, it's, but it's a good, it's a good segue there because you did write recently, like one of the reasons why I want to have you on is because you wrote this brilliant piece for for sports net about just kind of looking at the, the blueprint for the oilers here because, you know, it's very easy to look at how the past decade's gone for them.

And to be like, well, they haven't appeared in the playoffs at all in the past 10 years. So literally just making their regardless of whatever happens is a positive and a step in the right direction. And, you know, that's considered a good season for them. But I mean, if you just look at it, like when you, when you're dealing with sort of generational talents like this and guys that are producing at such a high rate on their entry level contract, like you really are incentivized with the current cap structure to go for it while you can. Because, I mean, you know, you mentioned dry sidels up for a new deal this year. and McDavid will be the next year. And this year, they're making, what, like under $2 million combined against the cap?

And I mean, if you just look ahead to after 2018, they're going to be, what's a fair estimate for what that combined cap is going to be for them, like $15, $16 million? Like, it's going to be monstrous compared to what it is now. Yeah, I'm curious as to what they do with Drysidal. He's got his first year in the league,

he burnt the first year of his entry-level deal, but he didn't burn the first year of his UFA. status. So they do have the option to go on a bridge deal with him, which might change things a little bit. But regardless, there's going to be a, you know, a massive boost. And even if you do go on a bridge deal with dryside, it only buys you so many years before you do have to pay him full price.

So, yeah, there's a, there's kind of a twofold way of looking at it. And the one I stressed was the incentive offered by the salary cap and cost-controlled entry-level players. You want to strike while the iron's hot with them. The other thing is that when you have a core that is so good, it's so good at 21, 22, and 23. If this is a team that's going to be just killing it when these guys are 30, at the other end of, like, I think most of our, most of your listeners will have seen the charts that the Gabriel Desjardin and, and others since have done showing aging curves and showing sort of that peak in the 25, 26 range. in terms of offensive performance for forwards.

So if we imagine that as sort of the peak years, the years where this team is at its most dominant, when Drysidal and McDavid are 25-26, well, how they're going to be at 30 is going to correspond a lot to how they are at 22-23. And if this is a team that is going to be good when they're 30, it's also a team that should be good when they're 22-23. Yeah.

And, you know, I had this same discussion along the same lines, at least, with Craig Custin's recently about the Leafs. And it's similar in the sense that, you know, it's easy. Just the team's been so bad for so long that now that they're good. And like it's very easy to just become a little complacent and just, you know, you just be happy that they're not the laughing stock of the league anymore. But it's, it is one of those things where you really need, like, need to do as much as you can while these guys are so cheap and so productive at that price.

Because we're seeing with, you know, whether it's a team like Tampa Bay, who I know you've also been following pretty closely and written about for sports, as well. It's like, you can never take it for granted. It's, it's easy with these young guys to just go like, well, if they're this good right now, just imagine after they get some more years and experience and tough losses under the belt, how good they're going to be in the years to come. And then there's injuries, there's poor goaltending. There's, you know, guys just mysteriously falling off and not developing the way you'd think they will. A various medley of different factors. And you just can't really take for granted that it's going to be this stepwise progression. So if you're already, competitive and winning games and doing well right now. Just do your best and take it to the next level. Otherwise, you're kind of doing yourself with a service as a franchise. Yeah, life is short, and we see that all the time with these teams. The New York Islanders are doing better lately with Doug Waite behind the bench,

but we saw that for a few years. They were sort of the young team that everybody was like, oh, yeah, they're going to get better and better and better. And they did take the first two steps, and then they stalled. And we'll see whether or not they can pull themselves out of that and build towards greatness. But, you know, John Tavares was a 2009 draft pick. We're at the point where the young core of that team is not going to get better and they're going to have to find other ways to improve.

And the other thing, I'm glad you put it in the phrase in the form of sort of a step function because one of the comments I get all the time when I talk about this, I got it on some pieces I wrote last year too is, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. the Edmonton Oilers haven't been in the playoffs since 2006. What are you doing even talking about a Stanley Cup? Let's wait until they get some playoff wins under their belt before you even consider this. But when you look at the great teams, that's not how it works.

The Pittsburgh Penguins went to the Stanley Cup final in 2008. In the previous seven years, they had won a single playoff game. The Chicago Blackhawks went to the Western Conference finals in 2009. In the previous decade, they'd won a single playoff game. game. It doesn't work like that. If you're a great team with a young core, it's not a gradual slope. I can't remember the mathematical term, but it's like a logarithmic function where they're exponential, sorry. Yeah, it's an exponential curve. They go from zero to a very high level of play very quickly when these things come together. And if you don't see that for a team that's hinged

on one or two, you know, like, I mean, obviously more than one or two players, but one or two really great talents driving it. If you don't see that sudden spike, it's very open to question whether or not they're ever going to climb that high. Yeah. Yeah. And like, listen, you look around the rest of that depth chart and the financial situation, and I feel like this is a good point for us to talk about Luchich, who I described as the elephant in the room at the start of the show. But I mean, it's kind of mind-blowing. I mean, by my account, the last time he scored a goal at 5-15 was on December, six against the Sabres and the Oilers have played 28 games since then and and he has only three, five on five assists during that time and seven power play points and it's a tough pill to swallow

for them because I think that, you know, most people were generally united in the belief that that was an ill-advised contract for them to give, for the Oilers to give him because of sort of the style of player he is, his age and the term they were giving and the premium they were paying for a guy like that. But I think that even the biggest detracts, factors as a deal would have admitted that, you know, you'd figure that they'd at least be able to squeeze out a couple of good productive years here as he enters his early 30s. And he's really just falling off the table immediately, which isn't something that I that I really considered with him as an option.

I mean, he had been a very productive, useful player for so long and hadn't really necessarily shown any signs of significant deterioration. So I feel like this is just, I don't know, is it as simple as just. just kind of just being a weird blip in the radar and we should expect that he'll at least come back to something more closely resembling his career norms or is there something here that is like are there red flags that should make us worried moving forward? I did a, like you, I was skeptical as to the long-term ramifications of the Luch Hitcheat, particularly when you consider what he's likely to look at look like in year five and what

Connor McDavid's likely to look like five years from now. But when I did, I went in the summer and I pulled up a whole list of people who had, you know, played comparably up to that point in their careers. And then I looked at how they performed over the following seven years. And I sort of broke the contract down into three periods. The first three years where he was almost certainly going to be good, the middle two years where the risks increased and you didn't really know what was going to happen. Some of them stayed good. Some of them went bad. And then the last two where there was a real risk of a drop off. The one guy in the group who, without a serious injury, really fell off the face of the earth at the same age that Luchich is in right now was Dustin Brown.

And when I say Dustin Brown, like that, if you're a general manager, that's a name that should send tingles up your spine and little red flags in your brain set off. He never came back. And it's eerie when you look at the numbers. He had a very similar year to Milan Luchich at the same age in that he had a tremendous power play season, one which was dramatically better than he'd done in years past, which is the case with Lucheech this year. And his five-on-five numbers fell through the floor. And that's like when I look at Luchich, I think, okay, this is a guy who should probably be better next year. And particularly when you consider it in the context of some of the other guys in Edmonton who are having bad seasons. But then I also think,

but what if he's Dustin Brown? And so I do, I would worry about him. man, the Dustin Brown, like, isn't it mind-blowing? You kind of forget just because of how pedestrian he's been the past few years. It's like, you know, for a while there, people love to hate on him, but he was very productive. As we mentioned, he drew a ton of penalties. He was a positive shot differential guy. He was actually a pretty good goal score and a very useful player, even disregarding all the intangibles and leadership and him being the captain and all that jazz, just purely based on stuff we could quantify. He was a very, very good NHL player. And then he dropped off badly and everyone made fun of the contract they gave him and everything like that.

But then it's sort of, he just faded into the background, but he's still casually making $7 million this year and has five years left on this deal at just under $6 million as a cap hit. Like it's kind of mind-blowing. Like imagine if right now they just signed him to a five-year, $40 million deal or whatever. Like that'd be insane. It'd be like, what the hell are they doing? Well, that's basically what they're facing at this point. Yeah, it's And the fall off for Brown happened a lot earlier than I think anybody really expected.

Like, when these guys get to 35, you go, yeah, absolutely, you know, what are you doing? But at 28, you don't expect to see a guy just collapse like that. And that's why I'm a little bit, I'm a little bit leery bringing up Brown's name just because I do think he's an outlier. And the contract is just so bad, given what he's giving them right now. Well, here's the question I have for you, Jonathan. Like, it's, I know you talked about how you looked at sort of historical comparables for Luchich based on production. But is, should, when we're having discussions like this about players of this type, should we factor in the style of game they play just in the sense that like, you know, with Dustin Brown, I guess it's kind of easy to just look at it at hindsight now, 20, you know, 2020. And it's a little too convenient.

But it's like he played such a, you know, a game that's so tough on the body where he just constantly. constantly flying around all the time, throwing a ton of hits, taking a ton of punishment. And it makes sense that the body would eventually just break down. Even though he hasn't necessarily missed a lot of games, it's pretty clear that he's not physically the player he used to be, even though he's not that old at this point. Like, you know, Luchich plays a very physical game beyond even all the fighting and stuff like that just in terms of throwing the body around. And it's like you have to wonder, is that a factor we should be considering?

It's kind of tough to quantify, but it's just sort of something you're going to keep in the back of your mind. No, that's a superb question because I wrestled with that when I was putting the piece together on his sort of expected aging curve because anecdotally, like when I think about it, if I think about somebody like a Ray Whitney type player, a finesse guy who is good at not putting his body through a ton of physical damage as much as you can at the NHL level. And I think about a guy like Luchich who really thrives on that power game. Yeah, it makes sense to me that Luchy should break down a lot earlier.

But doing it that way, I think the risk is that you get kind of a few examples like Dustin Brown who come to mind. And you forget about guys like Scott Hartnell, who is 34 and still producing at a very high level and has, I don't know, like 15 seasons with 100 plus penalty minutes in the league. So some of these guys can obviously, you know, overcome the. the rigors of the game that they play and still be effective as they get older. But I do think it's a legitimate area of concern is when you have a power player who's going to be, you know, engaged in so much physical play as just a regular part of his game, you do have to worry about him breaking down a little bit earlier. Yeah.

And it's one of those things where, you know, I think it was a game a few weeks ago. He had this epic sequence against the, the predator's where he basically just like destroyed Austin. Watson Watson with one of the cleanest, most thunderous hits you're going to see in today's NHL and then wound up drawing a retaliatory penalty for it and then scored the power play goal that sent the game to overtime. And I'm sure, like, you know, Peter Shirelli is watching that thinking like, yeah, this is what I pay this guy for, like how we can just change the game like this physically. But it's like we just haven't seen many signs of life with him this year.

I mean, he's been like, he's been better with McDavid. I mean, everyone's going to be better with him. But even like Maroon has just been so vastly outbursts. performing him in his minutes with McDavid that it just makes you wonder what's going on here, whether it is something deeper or whether it's just one of these aberrations and he's going eventually wind up coming back to what we'd expect from him. Yeah, it's funny that, like that play, and there was some comment in Edmonton at the time, because I know exactly the play you're talking about, there was some comment in Edmonton

at the time that maybe this was sort of the thing that would, you know, spark Luchich, get him going, and then there wasn't really any build on it, and some of that might have to do with Edmonton's schedule. But the further away we get from that instance, the more it looks like one of those isolated... There's a famous story in the blogosphere in Edmonton about a Brad Isbister game on Hockey Night in Canada where Brad Isbister was just superb,

and he was this physical force. I can't remember how many points he had, but it was... And Brad Isbister is famously one of these players who never lived up to the extreme potential that was expected of him from his best moments. So the further away we get from Luchich, not that he's anywhere in Brad is Mr.'s category. Just, no, I'm not comparing the two, but the further way we get from that, the more it's like, okay, so you have the moment, but it's not, it's not, it's not, it's not, it's not going to spark a comeback.

And the further way we get from that, the more it's like, okay, this is a lost season. and the question becomes less, how can he salvage this season and more? How can he make sure that this is a one-off and not the new normal? Yeah, well, no, especially since like the Oilers are in this for the long haul with him. I mean, the other thing to factor in here is that his contract is, like, just with all the signing bonus and it's brutal, it's very lockout proof and it's very, it's going to be tough to finagle around. So, like, they better hope that this isn't,

the, you know, the Dustin Brown style, uh, turn of events. And I don't know, man, you're just, you're just mentioning Brad Isbister in the same breath as

me, uh, has me, uh, has me a bit worried. Well, no, don't, don't,

don't, please don't read too much into that. That was a, uh, he is not remotely a comparable to Brad isbster. I'm just, I'm just, I'm just messing with you.

Um, let's, let's, let's, let's, let's, let's, let's, let's, let's, let's, let's,

let's, let's, discuss when looking at this season for the Oilers is what's happening in net because, you know, for years it was a wasteland where, you know, I mean, I shouldn't say that. It's unfair to how well Devin Dubnick was playing for a few years there, particularly at five-on-five where maybe his overall sort of box score goalie counting stats just weren't there because the team in front of him wasn't very good and the, you know, the penalty kill numbers weren't great, but I mean, he was a fantastic, well-above league average goalie for a few years there. So other than him, though, I mean, it's been a struggle, and they've been constantly sort of looking for a guy to step in and be reliable.

And now that they've found one, it's funny, I think the next logical question is, like, are they kind of abusing him a bit too much? Because Cantabot's on pace for 73 games. And, I mean, if you look at the list of guys that have done that in recent years, it's very small. I mean, 11 times total it's been done since 2005, which just goes to show you, like, and a lot of, those were in 2005, 2006 with guys like Broder and Keprasov and Abaka. So it's like we've seen it very infrequently as teams have started to

shift towards resting their goalies more and not having them play both legs of it back to back, kind of settling in that smooth 60 to 65 range. And on the one hand, I understand why they want to do it just because you know, Camp Talbot's been playing so well for them.

It's very easy to just talk yourself into being reliant upon him and just figuring out, you know, let's play him as much as we can. here and he'll have plenty of time to rest in the offseason but i mean at some point you do reach kind of a point of diminishing returns and i think it it's it was very negligent to them to go into the year thinking that a guy like yonis gustafsin despite years of contradictory evidence uh would be a good enough stopgap for him i mean it just seems like it was very poorly thought out and now they're stuck with just basically keep playing camp talbot every night and

hoping that he doesn't completely fall apart okay so there's a lot there i i want to touch really quickly on Dubnick before I get into Tal. But just because he kind of, we can relate him a little bit to the conversation we've been having about Loochich and to a lesser extent, Everleigh, Newton Hopkins, and Poolyot, Dubnick was a very good goalie for three full seasons for the Oilers, including the 2012-2013 season as a starter. He had a bad year in 2013-14, got sent away from Matt Hendricks and is now a Vezna-Caliber goalie with Minnesota. But he did have a bad year. The year you got traded, everything went wrong. And it's just, it's kind of a good reminder with all of these guys. Just to keep in mind that

players do have off years and it's not necessarily going to be indicative of what's going forward. Sometimes it is, but a lot of times it is a blip on the radar. Okay. So that was my doobnick thing I wanted to get out of the way. Talbot's in a very interesting position. I think particularly playing in Edmonton, it's a lot different for a guy like Talbot to do it. Ray Ferraro made this point the other day, and I think it's totally valid. It's a lot different for a guy like Talbot to play 70 games than it is for a guy like Martan Brojure. So many teams within such a narrow travel window in basically three different home arenas. And the travel schedule, I think, has a pretty big impact on goalie rest. This year Talbot has played better. The

more he has played. And I think that's kind of played into them, dressing him as much as they have, just because, you know, he thrives on three games in a row, four games in a row, five games in a row, or at least he has this season. And so you don't really want to end that streak when he seems to be doing so well with more work. I think the Oilers are in a very difficult position, and it is of their own doing because Jonas Gustafson was such a poor choice for backup goalie and such an obviously poor choice for backup goalie. Peter Shirelli has a history of cap savings in the backup goalie position, but as a rule,

he's gone with guys like Anton Hidalban, who was a very good backup for him. I'm trying to remember who else he had in Boston, but he's had cheap backups, but a lot of times they've been also really good backups. Chad Johnson. Chad Johnson another, yeah, Chad Johnson's another great example of that, whereas Jonas Gustafson is only half of that. He's very cheap. He is not good. No, he's not good. I think they could play the guy they have in net right now more. Laurent Brasois has had several very good seasons at the American League level.

He wasn't having a great year before they brought him up, but he needs clear waivers next year. I'm not a big believer in the value of the young waiver-eligible goalie. I was kind of scratching my head watching what the Islanders did this year. with Jean-Fresois Barouet, I just figured wave him. You've got two good goalies under contract, so who cares if he gets claimed? But having said that, Brasois is a guy who is cheap. He's signed for next year. The AHL numbers suggest this may be a player, and you might as well find out what he can do

at the NHL level. He's a reasonable bet for a backup goaltender. There's no reason not to play him. The Oilers are not life and death for the postseason. I know when you look at the standings, it can seem that. way sometimes, but when you really break it down, the records that a team like a Calgary or a Vancouver would have to do to overtake the Oilers, it's not feasible. And certainly, it's not so close that giving Laurent Brassois two extra games over the final 20 here is going to be decisive.

So I think they're in a position where they're well enough, they're ahead enough in the standings that they can play the backup goalie. They have a guy who is a reasonable bet as a backup goalie. But one of the things with Todd McClellan this season is he has been incredibly reluctant to trust certain players that are brought up from the American League. Taylor Beck is a guy

who has played in the NHL before. He was leading the AHA in scoring at the time of his recall and he basically got five shifts to show whether or not he could play in the NHL and he didn't prove it decisively and he was thrown to the sidelines the rest of the way. Yassie Poo Yarvey was healthy

scratched repeatedly. and couldn't, when he did play, would only play a few minutes. And now he's finally playing a bunch of minutes in the American League. And I feel like it's the same situation playing out in Net where McClellan has one guy that he absolutely knows will win hockey games for him. And he's very reluctant to give an unproven guy like Braswa a chance in Net, even though I think the way things are set up, it is in the Oilers' interests to do so.

Yeah. Yeah, I mean, even just like simple little things, like, I think it was a week or two ago where, you know, they played a game in Nashville, I believe, and then the next night they were playing in Carolina, and I feel like that would have been a very logical spot to play a guy like Brasois. I don't know. I don't think that you're necessarily worried about the canes putting a five or six spot on you regardless of who's in that. So it's like, it's one of those things where you could, you could steal some rest days for a guy like Camtowder, where, you know, you can still be your workhorse, but you don't necessarily need to just

completely ride him into the ground. Like, I feel like that's a bit unnecessary. Yeah, well, and the thing that deserves mention there, too, is there was a, that was the second in a stretch of three games in four nights. The fourth game was an afternoon game in Montreal. Camp Albert was brilliant. He played all four of those games, or sorry, all three of those games, and he was great against Montreal. He had a shutout. I was very surprised because he was playing so much, and you would think that at some point the, but I guess coming out of the All-Star break, it does open up. some possibilities.

I don't think they're going to have the same luxury through March. The last half of the year, their schedule just gets crazy compacted, and they're going to have to find some places to play the backup goalie. And I think that if you're going to have to do that in March, why not give him a couple of games in February so that the coach can be confident in him? And if he's not, you can bring somebody in at the trade deadline for a, you know, a third or a fourth round pick just so that the coach has a guy that he's willing to play.

Yeah, yeah, that's fair. Okay, a few final questions before we get out of here. So are you prepared for the situation where the Oilers trade away a guy like Brandon Davidson just because they want to make sure they're able to keep Chris Russell this summer? Well, we almost made it through a whole podcast without mentioning the name of Chris Russell. It's like 45 minutes almost. I'm very proud of us. I actually think the situation is even more complex than that.

I think they could trade away Brandon Davidson and still have to. move Chris Russell. They've got a lot of decent left shot defensemen. I'm actually fine with, I like Davidson. I think he can play. I suspect he may be a decent second pairing guy down the line, and I'd be very interested in acquiring him if I was a team that needed that player. When you look at the left side, they've got Andre Seckerra locked up long term. They've got Oscar Clef Baum locked up long term, and they've got Darnell Nurse on the third pairing, who, you know, he's going to be coming back off the injury list very shortly here. When you look at that, you go, well, where does Brandon Davidson play long term?

And maybe you can make a case that they should trade a cleft bomber, a nurse for a more impact player. But the safe route there, I think, is obviously to trade Davidson, who would seem to be the least of those three guys in terms of career prospects. But that still, and that still leaves you with a position where maybe you, to get it, if you don't trade Chris Russell, if you keep him and sign him long term this summer, there's absolutely no room to bring in an upgrade on the right side.

And I think they need a puck moving defenseman who can handle power play minutes and spur the offense from the defensive zone. I think they need one of those guys. And if they don't, if they re-sign Russell, I don't see where there's room for one. Yeah. I'm a fan of Davidson. I know that a longtime listeners is a podcast will remember last year early in the season. I made jokes.

I was trying to figure out whether Ben and Davidson was a real person or not because I hadn't heard about him and stuff like that. But he's like, he's legitimately good and very useful. And many teams could use a guy like that on their third pairing. And I think that, you know, it's, it's, you made that joke about how we'd gone so long about talking about Russell. And I think it's, it's kind of enlightening that we had gone so long without really talking about anyone on this blue line because for such a long time there, the first

talking point whenever you, the Oilers would come up in a conversation would be what, you know, what's going on with their blue line, how can they fix it? What can they do there? And we're at the point right now where, you know, I'm pretty much. much like perfectly content with it. I mean, obviously it's not perfect. As you mentioned, they could desperately use a guy with maybe a bit more skill to be on their on their power play and really kind of push the pace offensively for them. But overall, there aren't too many liabilities. It's a pretty solid group overall. And considering where they've been in the past, that's a massive

improvement. So I think that, you know, it definitely could be worse. Yeah, it could certainly be worse. The question with the blue line, and this fits into what we discussed earlier about that, that need to get better in a hurry. If you're going to be a great team, you generally win a Stanley Cup fairly early on in your superstars NHL career, or at least if you don't win a Stanley Cup,

you at least are a contender pretty early on. And when I look at the Oilers Blue Line, that's my question, is whether it's certainly good enough for an average NHL team. Like, if you're an average playoff team, you look at that blue line, yeah, that's fine. If you're trying to be a contender, I'm skeptical that

it's good enough. And It's a by-committee group. I really like Oscar Cleftbaum. He does pretty much everything well. He's still a little bit gaff prone. And I kind of feel like, and I saw this at the HL level too, where it took him a while at that level for his brain to catch up to the speed of the game. And then it did, and he was really good.

And I feel like at the NHL level, once he gets some more games in, because he has been, he doesn't have very many games played under his belt. I feel like once he gets that experience, he'll process the game better and then we'll really see what he can do. We can quibble about the price for Adam Larson, the trading price for Adam Larson. I didn't like the trade at the time. I don't like the trade now. He's still a very good player, a very good defensive defenseman. He's somewhat one-dimensional with the puck, but so what?

Everything else he does is so good that he's an extremely valuable piece. I like Nurse's progression this year. Andre Sackra has been sort of their every man. He's a very good player. I think he's a solid number two defensemen on pretty much on just about any team in the league, just because he can, and one of the great things about him is he can play with any kind of player. He's got a very well-rounded, buried skill set. He can play with a puck mover and do a more defensive role.

He can play with a defensive guy and be a little bit more creative offensively. And Russell has been, Russell has been fine. I think he's, if he's your number four defenseman, you're not too badly off. I think ideally he's a third pair guy who plays a lot on special teams, but he's been fine. What they don't have is the guy who really takes charge of the game. They don't have a player who can drive things. And I'm skeptical. I like Lefbaum a lot, and I like Nurse's progression, but I'm skeptical that either of those guys evolves into that player.

And I don't know if you can win with a by-committee approach to defense and the Oilers Forward Group. Man, can you imagine Kevin Shankirk on this team? I think, do you want to hear my crazy wild out there scenario that I'd love to see the Oilers try? Always. Okay. I'd love to see them trade Brandon Davidson and Chris Russell at the deadline and then go out and get Chattonkirk as a rental. Yeah. Because you move Russell, you open up a spot and you bring in some futures.

The Oilers don't have a second round pick this year. It's going to go to Boston. So you need those futures. And the futures you get for Davidson Russell should be pretty close in value to the futures you're going to pay out for Kevin Chatton Kirk Rental. So do it. See what this team can do with an elite right shot defenseman. And Shattonkirk is an elite offensive defenseman. And I think you'd be a great compliment to Adam Larson on the right side. I think you have one pair with Larson, one pair with Shatton Kirk. You're in really good shape. And I just, I would love to see what this team could do with a guy like that. And I think they're in a position

where they can do it without really over-mortgaging the future. I think it's a very reasonable gamble. If you trade away those two defensemen who are probably on the outs anyway and give take Chatton Kirk for a spin. And if things go really well, maybe you can convince them to sign long term. Yeah. No, I think that that's a very interesting proposition.

I mean, you're not really, you know, like, it's kind of a tough belt to swallow if you're like really mortgaging the future for a guy like that just for a couple months. But like,

if that's all it's going to take to get him, that I think it's kind of a no-brainer just based on the potential return and reward for it. Yeah, my final question for you was going to be, what do you, We're two weeks away from the trade deadline. What are you looking for? But I guess that is your best case scenario.

And there's what you'd like to see, I guess. Well, that's the swing for the fences scenario. And I think it's exceedingly unlikely. It's something I'd love to see. And I think it would be really telling as to what the Oilers are. But sort of what I expect to see is a depth acquisition or two, maybe a third, fourth line forward, ideally a right shot guy who can take faceoffs. and maybe a backup goalie.

I've never heard a better sort of summation of what the NHL trade design experience is like than you going from, what would you like to see? Well, I'd like to see them pull off three separate trades and bring in Kevin Shattonkirk to, okay, but what do you think is going to happen? Well, they'll bring it a depth forward. Like, I feel like the drop off from there in terms of just excitement level really just took a massive hit. well that's this is uh this is a secret to why trade rumors are so popular even even though there's a very little trade excitement in real life as a rule it's the possibilities are are endless and

uh enjoyable to play with but the the reality is generally okay redeemed verbata for a third round pick yeah well and i have i have no idea what to expect from this year's trade line because generally that is definitely the case i mean last year we kept waiting for something to happen and then nothing happened. Like the Chris Russell trade for Yerki Yoki Paca and a conditional second round pick was like the most exciting thing that happened. I guess like the McHale-Badker trade too. But it was like it was a very dry trade line.

And I think that part of that has to do with a point I've really been hammering home lately about how the point structure right now is kind of increasing this artificial parity, which the league loves, of course, because then, you know, their teams and their owners can sell to their fans that their team is still in it heading into the trade deadline. it's, you know, exciting times. You should come to the games because we're only a few points out.

But then that just kind of creates this gridlock in the middle of the standings where a lot of teams just don't really know what, they don't really know how to approach a trade deadline. They can't decide whether they're actually good or not and they just wind up doing the worst thing possible, which is just standing pat. And so there's that. But then I think that this upcoming expansion draft really throws an interesting potential monkey wrench in there because there might be a lot of these deals where teams are worried about losing a guy for nothing or other teams have some spaces where they can pick up a guy for a discounted

rate and protect him whereas his initial team can't. So we might see some movement there and that kind of opens the door for an interesting set of possibilities. But as you mentioned, I mean, just based on the track record, that probably will wind up to being a whole lot of discussion, but not much actual action. Yeah, it's going to be a fascinating summer and I think we'll see a lot of action this summer. I don't know how much we're going to actually see at the trade deadline. It's so difficult. And you pointing out this false parity, I think, is really important. If you're a general manager, maybe one of the most important things you have to do

is be able to differentiate between actually being in the race and not really being in the race and then convince ownership that you're not in the race and in the long term, the best thing to do is sell. I think of a team like Vancouver that right now they're four points out, but realistically, they've got almost no shot of making the playoffs. Right. And, you know, if you can convince ownership of that, maybe you can do something crazy like, you know, retain money on the sedans

and ship them to L.A. and bring back Matt Green and Teddy Purcell and Tom Gilbert and, you know, make the money work by bringing on all this garbage and at the same time adding a bunch of futures to your team and really give yourself a kickstart. Whereas what, you know, this false parody lets you do is keep players like that and slowly run them down to zero. and find yourself three years from now, four points out of the playoffs, 50 games into the year, wondering if you can make it again. I think it just encourages these sort of self-defeating management strategies.

Right. And that's the thing, right, where it's like from an entertainment perspective, it's kind of a bummer because it really ruins the potential for the product. But at the same time, one of my favorite things in pro sports is anything that sort of rewards teams for doing a good job and for being ahead of the curve and being. being able to critically analyze stuff and act upon it. And this is a perfect example of that where there's very few teams that are true sellers, like even a team like the Red Wings who is not good at all and is like definitively a bottom

five team that has no business entertaining a playoff run because of the situation of their franchise. They might not be buyers like they have been in years past, but it's conceivable that they won't be nearly as aggressive as sellers as they really, realistically should based on the current state of their roster. And that leaves a massive imbalance between supply and demand. And, you know, like Elliot Friedman, for example, today he put out his 30 thoughts, which everyone should obviously read always. But there was some interesting stuff in there about sort of how it's a weaker draft than it's been in years past and how that might encourage

teams to potentially give up first round picks more than they've been willing to in the past. And like, you know, a guy like Brian Boyle is being floated around as asking price, a realistic asking price, that being a first round pick and like how can you look at that as a team like the Canucks or the Red Wings or or one of these teams that's kind of stuck in that middle region and not think wow like we could really just clean up here by getting a couple of very useful picks for guys that ultimately won't factor into our long-term plans so like if you're able to get ahead of the curve like that there's a massive reward waiting for you absolutely um I uh the Toronto Maple Leafs are team that as the last sheet like you look at where Toronto is now and this the sudden emergence of them as a as a playoff threat and and I look back at the re because they had a very short rebuild by NHL standards but one of the things they did was they kind of went against conventional wisdom and and partly being in a big market helped them do it but they signed a whole bunch of cheap veterans every off season which is something rebuilding teams generally don't do no no we want to play the kids the Maple Leafs didn't really do that they brought in a whole bunch of cheap veterans and then at the trade deadline they had a whole bunch of cheap veterans and then at the trade deadline they had a whole bunch of cheap

veterans that they could trade away for just a zillion draft picks or prospects or whatever. And it was an extremely good strategy. And I think it only worked because so few teams actually sell at the trade deadline. You wouldn't be able to command a second round pick for this run-of-the-mill third-line veteran if more teams were cognizant of the fact that they aren't good and aren't likely to be good in the immediate future. Detroit is a great example. There's absolutely no reason for them not to sell everything that's not nail. down and not in the in going to be useful three years from now um and and maybe maybe maybe maybe that's a silver lining of false parity is it is it does create room for teams that are a little bit smarter a

little bit better run to to create separation between themselves and and the NHLs uh less um I'm trying to think of a word the the NHL's less well run franchises right Yeah. No, I know what you're saying. It's interesting, you know, for it's, I guess we'll see how the next couple weeks go on this summer. But there is, it's a land of opportunity, my friend. If you play it right, there's a good things will come your way. Jonathan, man, thanks. Thanks for taking the time to chat. That was a lot of fun. I stretched you out there for an hour. I don't, I don't usually do podcasts as long. But there was just so much good stuff to get into with you. And every time I have you on the phone, I got a, I got to talk to your off a little bit. well, I always really enjoy these conversations. And, you know, if next time we go the whole hour without talking about Chris Russell, I think I'll have to send you like a gold star or something because we came so close. I was so proud of us.

We almost made it. Dare to dream. Dare to dream. Yeah, you know what? Let's make a preliminary plan. Let's get you back on sometime, like, right after the trade deadline. And we can just sort of kind of pick up this conversation because I feel like, you know, we just spent like 10 minutes on on this stuff but I feel like it really just could have been an entire podcast on its own.

I look forward to analyzing every, all three fourth round picks for for third, fourth line forward type trades with you after the trade deal. All right, looking forward to it, man. Have a good one. Yeah, take care. The Hockey PDOCast with Dmitri Filipovich. Follow on Twitter at Dim Filippovich and on SoundCloud at soundcloud.com slash hockey pdiocast. Next.