The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 164: Expectations versus Reality

Episode Date: May 2, 2017

Bill West joins the show to discuss how the Capitals and Penguins have matched up through three games, whether there's merit to Mike Sullivan's insistence on the importance of scoring chances, and how the postseason will influence future roster decisions in Pittsburgh. The topics covered include: 1:29 The Crosby injury 7:15 Freeing Malkin up for easier matchups 13:41 The unpredictability of a short playoff series 17:15 The Great Scoring Chance Debate 21:09 Differences between this year and last year 24:31 Linemate chemistry and different playing styles 29:39 The Marc-Andre Fleury redemption tour 32:48 Buying or selling Justin Schultz Sponsoring today’s show is SeatGeek, which is making it easier than ever before to buy and sell sports and concert tickets. They’re giving our listeners a $20 rebate off of their first purchase. All you have to do is download the free SeatGeek app and enter the promo code PDO to get started. Every episode of the podcast is available on iTunes, Soundcloud, Google Play, and Stitcher. Make sure to subscribe to the show so that you don’t miss out on any new episodes as they’re released. All ratings and reviews are also greatly appreciated. Thanks for listening! See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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So when you want to hit reset, reach for the beer that's made to chill. Get Coors Light and the new look delivered straight to your door with Drizzly or Instacart. Celebrate responsibly. Coors Brewing Company, Golden Colorado. Regressing to the mean since 2015, it's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filipovich. Welcome to the HockeyPedioCast. My name is Dimitri Filipovich, and joining me is my good buddy, Bill West.

Bill, what's going on, man? Hey, Dimitri, I'm doing all right. How are you? I'm doing good. I mean, I'm probably a bit less busy than you are. We sure picked a good day to be doing this particular show together. We're recording this on a Tuesday morning after a pretty contentious game three that was played last night. How was the vibe and the atmosphere in the building during and after the game?

very different than some of the other playoff games for obvious reasons. You know, when you see Sidney Crosby go down the way he did, you know, the building was pretty silent there for a bit. You know, I think everyone kind of holds their breath because, you know, the penguins probably are not Stanley Cup favorites. I would say that's a fairly, you know, fair statement if they don't have him the rest of the way. So, you know, we'll see that we're not expecting much in the way of revelations on Crosby until he actually joins practice again. That's just the nature of the playoffs. So, you know, we'll see. Mike Sullivan didn't say a whole lot last night.

So, yeah. Well, one of my least favorite things about this job is getting into back and forths about suspensions and hits and how we should be treating them. Because it always just evolves into this thing where everyone, you know, takes the role of some combination of like a forensics analyst and a psychologist and trying to determine, you know, what the player's intent was and what he meant to do. And it's all based on a bunch of these like kind of grainy stills and super slowed down replays of a play that actually happened exceedingly quickly in real life. But I guess with that said, like it'd be a bit disingenuous of us not to get into what happened

last night to start the show because it is such a central theme now just based on the the discussions people are having online, but also how it could impact the rest of this series. So I don't know, like where do you stand on the hit Crosby took and how it should be treated moving forward? Well, obviously, it looked terrible. You know, my cohort and Jonathan Bomboli,

who also covered the Penguins, you know, we kind of went back and forth about whether it's a hockey play. You know, Barry Trots, of course, called it that. I think that's been kind of the dividing point, at least, from what I could tell on Twitter. And there are people that fell that, yeah, it was a thing that happened very fast and that you, Niskin was essentially looking to finish his check. And Crosby kind of got tripped up by Ovechkin and, you know, ended up in a really vulnerable position. You know, my attitude is I don't know why it's so important in hockey for guys to finish checks.

because I'm sure that's what Niskenen was doing. I don't know if he was going for Crosby's head, like he said. It's hard to tell intent. But I am certain that Niskenen was looking to cross-check Sidney Crosby in some manner. That's how it works in the playoffs. You go to the net, you get shoved the ice in some way. So with that in mind, I guess you kind of have to live with the consequences. He certainly didn't.

I can't say he certainly didn't. But he probably didn't mean to lay out Crosby in that. fashion, but the fact of the matter is he did. So, you know, I'm with Mike Sullivan, the idea that it doesn't matter what I think or what he thinks, or what Barry Trots thinks. It's what the league thinks. And, you know, we'll see if there's any discipline, you know, as we talk here on Tuesday morning. I haven't seen any tweets yet from the Department of Player Safety. So the indications are that there probably won't be any additional discipline for Niskin, who obviously got the game as conduct.

It was just released that there's going to be no hearing. Okay. Yep. Yep. So again, it's, you know, I'm sure it's a disappointment for Penguins fans and probably half of the, you know, hockey fan base overall. Because, again, from what I could tell, there seemed to be, I don't know if I'm going to call it an even divide, but there were certainly voices on both sides, you know, people

who felt not necessarily than Caps fans who felt that, you know, it was, uh, you know, it was again, just kind of an unfortunate sequence of events and not necessarily, you know, a defenseman trying to take out the other team's best player. Yeah, I mean, obviously you never want to see any player get hurt like that, but, I mean, it's especially compounded by the fact that it is Cindy Crosby, and I think that everyone, I mean, you know, maybe there are some Caps fans out there that don't want to see him play the rest of the series because they would improve their team's chances, but I think that, you know, most hockey fans would love to watch these games involve

Sidney Crosby because every time he's out there, he does something exciting, and makes the product better. And I think I can see the argument for both sides, as you mentioned. Like I personally lean towards it being just a bit of a freak accident with unfortunate timing and a very unfortunate outcome where, you know, the play that doesn't get mentioned that started it off was how Ovechkin's stick kind of slides up Crosby's back and just unfortunately wax him in the head as a follow-through. And then that kind of sends him spiraling downwards.

He gets tripped up a bit and he goes bowling into Niskenen and like that. And I don't know. it looks very incriminating. I think it seemed like a bit more of a sort of like a reflexive motion on Niskinin's part where he was just kind of going through that check as opposed to targeting his head and trying to take it off with his stick. So I don't know. I'd hate, you know, for this to mar this entire series and for Crosby to be hurt long term

and then for the penguins to be trying to get, you know, their retribution on Niskenin since the league isn't going to give him any beyond that kicking him out of that one game. So I just want to see these two teams play hockey and settle it that way with, you know, all their guys healthy playing at their absolute peak. But yeah, I guess this is what happens in these discussions we have come playoff time whenever everything's magnified and everything matters that much more. Yeah, which sucks because, again, these are the two best teams in the league by, you know, the regular season records. And two teams that are capable of playing great hockey, you know, the kind of hockey that I think fans want to see. So, you know, when we're instead, you know, forced to, you know, go frame. by frame and, you know, question these kind of things.

It's, I don't know, I think you're probably in the same boat as me. It just, it's not how you draw it up going into this kind of series. Yeah, and I also think that, you know, we should mention that an entirely different discussion to be had here is like if you're, you know, if you're, if you're not okay with with all the head contact we see in hockey and you want to do something about getting that out of the game, like that's, that's, I'm perfectly cool with that as a discussion. And I think that that's a very fair point, but that's an entirely different debate than trying to imply that Matt Niskinin was head hunting here. So with that out of the way, let's get into some X's and O stuff and dive into the series a bit deeper.

And I think, you know, you may mention of this before the series started. But in last year's postseason, what we basically saw was Crosby went up against Baxter's line quite a bit. And that freed up both Malkins unit and the HBK line to go up against the Capitol's depth line. particularly because Netsov's second second line unit and that worked out really well for the penguins because Crosby essentially played backs into a bit of a draw which really opened up the penguins to take advantage and dominate in those other matchups and we've seen similar sort of distribution of ice time this go-around I don't know like obviously we've seen Malkin with Crosby out of the lineup over it over the years step is

game up and show that he's not he's not just a number two guy like if he needs to be he can really carry the team and dominate and and and just contribute everything you'd want from a number one center but with that said I think that in this series like if they do have to play any of these games without crosbie it really throws a monkey wrench in that because

all of a sudden like I'm fascinated to see how that turns out whether the capitals are just going to shift gears and put back from Malchon's line and then let their depth take over here or how it's going to play out from an exos perspective moving forward. Yeah, I think you hit it on the head. The Penguins' depth at forward, you know, this year has still been, you know, an advantage for them. Not quite as much on the possession front. Last year they were doing it all, especially the bottom six compared to the, you know, Washington's bottom six. But they're still producing, you know, Nick Benino obviously

has the game winner in game one, Matt Cullen with a huge goal in game two. So, you know, they're chipping in, but again, yeah, when you have the chance now to put Baxter out against Malkin, you know, that, that, I guess in the best case scenario for the Penguins, maybe still play to a draw, there's probably some fear that Malkin, because he doesn't quite have the same two-way game as Crosby, maybe that doesn't even happen. And, you know, suddenly your strength versus strength approach isn't, you know, as effective as you thought. So it's going to be very interesting. I think Matt Cullen has been incredibly valuable for a 40-year-old who's playing, you know, on a super cheap contract, but how much can you really ask of him if he suddenly, you know, a third

line center, you know, they were moving him around last night and he was in some capacity, a second line center at times. Nick Benino, same thing. He's a guy that seems to step it up for the playoffs, but, you know, how often do you really want him going out there against Evgeny Kuznettov. I don't like that matchup personally, so it's going to be tough. I think it's really going to put a lot on Mike Sullivan, who has, you know, done a pretty impressive job of bench management

in the playoffs. He insisted that they were just going to roll deep pairs and they've stuck with that. And the results, I guess, being what they are, you can't argue too much. I think at some point I guess we'll probably get into possession numbers here because that's

certainly a bugaboo for me and thus far as it's kind of left me with egg on my face, but I'm kind of waiting for regression to kick in. Well, before we get into those positions, I guess it kind of ties into the discussion a little bit, but just based on, you know, the personnel the penguins have in comparing last year to this year.

You know, obviously I think the capitals are a deeper team than they were last year, you know, bringing in a guy like Lars Eller, for example, as your third line center is huge and gives them another weapon and a way to sort of attack the penguins' top players. But I think from Pittsburgh's perspective, like something that's been a bit of a red flag for me as the year has winded down and something that's something that's. I've been keeping an eye on is like all of those depth players that were really stepping up last year and in particular the HPK line that got so much national attention and it was playing so well during their cup run really fell off from a five-on-fired perspective this year and I was kind of wondering what your take was on what the explanation on that was like was it was just a case of maybe they were just playing a bit over their heads last year or or maybe I don't know it just was an unsustainable pace or or what happened. you, but it definitely, like, is a big thing to consider because it's a different team this year than it was last year.

Yeah, absolutely. Well, in regards to HBK, you know, they were kind of an interesting case study in regression there because during the regular season, they had all the numbers that you would want to see, not only in scoring, but in possession. They were playing like a good line, essentially. In the playoffs, they were really more like a 50-50 possession line, and they just had this extremely high shooting percentage. Now, part of that is, again, they got so many rush opportunities.

They kind of had a counter-attack style slash, again, they were just launching the puck-up ice and telling Kessel and Hagelin to go get it. So, you know, it was somewhat of a strategy thing. I think teams probably adjusted to that. It's certainly not, you know, the kind of strategy that teams can't account for and can't adjust to. So, you know, this year when they tried HBK, at first, I think, it was just a problem because they didn't have Crosby.

So, you know, HPK was probably in over its head. And since then, you know, Phil Kessel has been up with Malkin and he's done some really good things there. So I think the Penguins like to keep those two together. And again, Nick Benino, it depends on the time of year. So sometimes he's productive, sometimes not Carl Haglund's obviously coming back from, you know, dealing with some injury stuff. So he's been up and down in the lineup.

So it's that HPK has kind of been a non-factor just because everyone's at a different place, health-wise, and productivity-wise. And, yeah, guys like Connor Shiri, he seems to be in his own head, or maybe he's dealing with an injury because he's had a rough couple games here. So, you know, I think it is, to some extent, it's regression. It's guys that probably came out the gate really fast, and other teams didn't necessarily have either a scouting report, or certainly just weren't ready for what the penguins threw at them.

And this time around, there's not as much of a mystery. Yeah. I mean, well, if you look at this, take a step back and look at this series from a big picture. You know, obviously the penguins are still in decent shape here. They're up to one in the series and game four set to be played in Pittsburgh. But I think that the series long numbers and the just general posies numbers, including the Columbus series, are worrisome to say the least because, you know, just in this series alone, for example,

or controlling like 37% of the shot attempts, 41% of the shots on goal and 42% of scoring chances. And that's like not a very successful formula to be drawing up moving forward. But at the same time, I do think that people sometimes struggle with the concept of probabilities and how things work in these short series where it's like every time a team wins despite getting out shot or out chance or what have you, it turns into this all of a sudden indictment against hockey analytics and how it's, you know, quote unquote, further proof that not of this stuff actually matters and and it's I just think it's it's interesting how it always devolves into that because it's really missing the point of what's going on here and sort of uh the reason why we

care about this stuff because you know we're not necessarily saying that if you if you control 37 percent of the shot attempts in a single game that you have no chance of winning but if you keep doing that then it's a sign that you're probably doing something that's going to wind up coming back to buy you in the ass moving forward and and it's just like I wish there was like an automated response that I could just send out to everyone that comes back. I mean, it was, it was especially bad in the, in the Minnesota,

St. Louis series, because I was so all in on Minnesota, and they outplayed them so badly and still lost, and people really viewed that as, as showing that none of this stuff really matters, but it's, you know, the Penguins are another,

they're pretty much right up there with the blues for the playoff long totals here. So they're, they're a good discussion point for us. Yeah, yeah, you know, I commend Bruce Boudreau for coming out after that Minnesota series and saying, we were the better team. I'm sure that came across. It's just bitterness to some people.

But, you know, I think anyone who does understand the numbers a little bit would agree and say, yeah, they outplayed St. Louis. And sometimes, you know, goalie steals a series. And, you know, any analytics person is also well aware of that. It's possible. It's just, you know, I think the thing, the message, if there's that automated response you're talking about, the message that we want to convey and that I think we're generally trying to convey is, you do certain things to win the cup. I mean, that's, you know, when we're talking about sustainable play and, you know, things that allow you to win game after game, round after round, it's about the sustainable metrics. The, you know, goalie save percentage is not going to be 970 throughout the playoffs.

Your shooting percentage probably will not be 17% or whatever it is for the Penguins right now throughout the playoffs. So, you know, it's, that's, again, I guess people, they want to go game, by game and even series by series so they're not necessarily getting ahead of themselves. But yeah, you know, last year, it was so nice to cover the Penguins because,

yeah, they were perfect for the analytics story. You know, they were doing all the right things, all the metrics were pointing to them, you know, in this form of sustainable play where they're just controlling whether it's Corsi or shots on gold, chances, again, they all put them in a good light. So

it made it very easy to say, yes, this team is a legitimate cup contender and they're very deserving when they ultimately won the cup. This year, maybe they pull it off. I don't know, but it certainly seems like they need to flip a switch because I can't see them, you know, winning 16 playoff games simply by asking Mark Andre Fleur to stand on his head and for guys to block 30 shots a night. Well, this has been a fascinating discussion that's been brewing all season with him,

essentially. I feel like I had you back on the show early in the season and we discussed this at depth, but it's this debate between. shot attempts and scoring chances and whether everything Mike Sullivan's been saying in the media about how they're good in certain statistical areas but not others is all part of a actually all part of a concerted effort on their part to focus on something that's based in reality or whether it's just

a false sense of public bravado on their part and you know the latest machination of this debate came recently when you wrote about Sullivan's appreciation of scoring chances particularly ones coming off the rush and the concept of how expected goals ties into it and you know we saw this in the columbus series where uh they definitely were playing this sort of interesting uh counter attack style whether they were just biting their time uh and then all of a sudden you know something would open up for them and they'd have this quick hitting attack and they'd convert their chances and part of that is definitely you know

they're scoring on a very high percentage of their shots that probably won't continue but it is fair to wonder whether this is something they're doing intentionally and and whether they're more well-suited to do it than others because of guys like Crosby and Malkin and Kessel and now Jake Gensel and having all these guys that can actually convert those opportunities at a high rate, making them maybe more lethal than other teams. Yeah, you know, first of all, I have to commend you for that story you did, because that was like November, I think. That was pretty early, and it's not just the Penguins.

You look at the Eastern Conference. The Rangers are obviously still in it. They're a quote-unquote scoring chance team. I think you could put Ottawa in that classification, at least maybe their counter-attacking style and defending the net front. So, you know, we're certainly seeing, again, I don't want to call a divide between shot attempts versus scoring chances. But, yeah, there are teams that have certainly said, hey, we don't need to outshut the other team as long as we protect the house and, you know, keep away those high-danger shots.

So, you know, for the penguins, they probably are as well. built for, you know, this scoring chance approach as anyone in the league. Like you said, when you have Crosby, you have Malkin, you have all the stars and the guys with that, that finishing ability. You can afford to maybe give up more shots than you generate. I'm not sure where you draw the line there. That's, I think, again, what we're still trying to figure out is, you know, is it okay if you're out shot or out attempted two to one? You know, is it okay if you're held to just, you know, 14, 15 chances a night, I don't know. Sometimes, again, I do think they're kind of playing with fire.

But, yeah, you know, Mike Sullivan the other day, you know, I asked him, is this counterattacking decision, you know, is it happening organically? Or did you guys come out and say, you know, we want to play this way? And he said it's a little above. So it clearly is something that has been on their, you know, on their agenda. I think the big thing is with Washington and Columbus, they're both teams that like to be aggressive on the forecheck and like to create a lot of that pressure up ice,

so the penguins feel they can take advantage of that and, you know, obviously get the quick rushes going the other way. So, you know, the big question, I guess, going forward is if they do advance and they get a team like Ottawa, or, you know, I guess we'll use Ottawa as the best example, that really doesn't, you know, look to create as much pressure up ice, do you have to adjust and go back to a possession-style game and how quickly or how effectively could the penguins flip a switch

and go from counter-attacking for essentially a month in the playoffs to being the possession team again? So it'll be a good test of the penguins' adaptability. Yeah, well, I'm definitely willing to entertain the discussion. I think there is some merit to it, but it's like the fly and the ointment for all of it for me is that it just seems a little bit convenient that Mike Sullivan and the Penguins are focusing on this so much now because if you look at last year,

they were also a dominant scoring chance team, and that was great, but they were also like a 57% Corsian-Fennwick team in the final 25 games of the regular season, and that was a big reason why people such as myself were all in on them heading into the playoffs. So you can understand the skepticism of sort of how this could be viewed as a bit of a smokescreen on their part where they're fluffing up something that they're still looking good in while sort of dismisses or refuting something that might raise red flags about their performance just from a self-preservation perspective. And, you know, that's before you get into the technical minutia of scoring chances. And as you wrote, like, the issues with selection bias and the definition of what they actually are and sort of the danger you get into of removing certain segments of the data set.

You know, that's why we generally like to look at just shot attempts because there's such a higher volume of them and they can tell us more and we can glean more from them. So I don't know. I think all of this stuff is fascinating. It's definitely something that we'll have to monitor moving forward. But I can see both sides where Mike Sullivan and might certainly be on to something. And the league as a whole has been certain teams have been focusing on it. But it is worrisome when that's all you have because if you have nothing else to fall back on, then you can really get into some dangerous waters.

Right. Yeah. I mean, like you said, last year, the telltale sign for the penguins that they were, you know, such a strong cup contender was they did everything well they didn't they didn't it wasn't a shot attempt thing it wasn't a scoring chance thing it was all of the above so um yeah you know this year i don't know if there's any team right now that you know has all of the above you know kind of checked off so it'll be i suppose an interesting test and yeah ultimately it'll probably be some sort of criticism of the analytics community that you know there was no analytics darling that that won

the cup you know everyone had flaws in some sort so uh but to go back to the expected goals thing. It was interesting the right story and certainly I enjoyed talking to the guys who calculated and are putting it out there publicly right now. And I would love it someday if Mike Sullivan started talking about expected goals

because I think there is at least a little more nuance in that versus scoring chances where obviously that's an internal thing for them and who the hell knows how they define a scoring chance versus what we see on Corsca and some of the other sites out there. So

it's uh you know it's an interesting debate i always wish i could ask like 15 follow-ups of solven or even the players uh when i get in stuff but obviously they they really don't want to talk that much about it they they uh have no interest in in delving into such conversation so uh you know it's it's kind of a little year-long project but uh yeah we'll see what scoring chances as the penguins define them uh you know can really do for them here in the next uh you know we or so well i mean along those lines of uh you know experimenting and and maybe diving into and investigating uh deeper statistics and and trying to uh uncover certain gems like i i did want to talk to you a little bit about a guy like connor shiry for example because i remember when he was

just coming into the league last year and when you very little about him and i think it was before he started playing with crosbie and really putting up the goals and and point totals that got everyone's attention uh i remember andrew berkshire telling me that sport logics tracking data loved him because he was just like one of the top guys in the league at retrieving loose pucks and and he was really popping off the page there and I remember at the time being skeptical because you know we still that's like a stat that we haven't really been able to test or or define and we don't know whether it's a repeatable individual skill or how important it actually is even if it is and then you watch him play with someone like

crosbie for example and it just makes sense that you know the combination of skills sets would mesh together where shiris constantly just all over the place retrieving the puck and just hounding in and then getting the puck to crosbie who knows what to do with it pretty much every time and it's just a fascinating discussion for me because i know someone like ryan stimson for example has been doing a great work with uh diving into player types and how they interact based on you know if they're more shooters or playmakers or whether a bit more balanced and how all of that ties into uh improving improving individual outputs so i don't know just like shiris a fascinating test case for me in that regard.

Yeah, you know, I think he certainly does some things that, um, the way he looks just, you know, his basic physical stature doesn't jump out at you and he was undrafted. So, you know, he has things working against him, but I do think he plays a style of game that is, um, you know, very malleable and, uh, you know, certainly it clicks with Sid because Sid, you know, I think people always roll their eyes at this or don't want to hear it, but, you know, Sid likes playing with grinders. There's a reason he spent, you so many years with Pascal Dupuy and Chris Kunitz. He likes guys that go to the

net and go and win puck battles in the corner. He doesn't need elite shooters, not to say that he actively pushes them away, although, again, the limited amount of time he has spent with Phil Kessel does make me wonder if, you know, there's some sort of preference

that's been expressed there, or if it's a simple matter of, as you said, with Ryan Stimson's work, maybe that's just not the best way to optimize the lineup, because you have too much elite skill, but different kinds of skill. I think Kessel would probably qualify as a shooter by Ryan's classifications. So, you know, is it better off to have, you know, a playmaker like, say,

with other playmakers or balance guys, I don't know. But, yeah, Shiri, you know, the thing that jumped out to me when I first started covering him when he got in the league is, you know, he was putting up decent metrics playing, you know, it's kind of a sheltered fourth-line role, you know, what you'd expect for a rookie, you know, without a lot of, um, you know, hype to his game. But, you know, he had guys like Kevin Porter and, you know, it was

Cullen for a little bit, and I think Oscar Sunquist for some of it. So, you know, not exactly centers you write home about. And, and again, they were controlling territory and doing the right things. And, yeah, I think also, you know, tempo-free hockey, who does some, you know, tracking kind of stuff.

Unfortunately, I don't know the name of that person. But, you know, Shiri a lot of times had good puck retrieval numbers on offensive rebound, and things like that. So, yeah, he has a nose for the puck, I guess, is the best way he can put it. And, you know, we are getting better about tracking those micro stats, whether it's puck retrievals or, again, the stuff you mentioned with Ryan Stimson,

you know, the individual shot contributions. And, you know, it's exciting to see where that goes in the next couple of years. And, again, how many more players we find out, you know, oh, okay, we were undervaluing this guy for a while. Yeah. But, I mean, at the same time, though, like, I definitely agree. that on your comments about the the partnership between sid and and phil kessel but i mean watching sid play with someone like jake gensel for example i feel like that's been a partnership that's

worked pretty well and and gensel definitely seems like a guy that's who's on the more skilled side and has looked great shooting the puck whenever sid's been passing it to him so it seems like uh i don't know it may it's possible that i'm very intrigued by all this data and it's possible that uh we could uncover certain relationships that matter. But at the same time, I'm also firmly in the camp of good players playing with other good players will probably lead to very good results. Yeah, absolutely. And I think, again, the thing about Crosby is he's so adaptable. You know, Mike Sullivan talks about that all the time. And that's what

he says he tells players when he puts him on Crosby's line. He says, don't change your game. Sid will change his to fit with yours. So the answer is, yeah, Sid can probably adapt to any style. You know, it just so happens that he, he's been adapting to undersized, you know, wainers for a good bit of the season. So I hate to kind of spin this stuff forward too much because we are in the middle of this exciting playoff series, and I think people would generally prefer that we focus on that. But at the same time, this is kind of doubling as my Pittsburgh Penguins deep dive,

and I don't know when I'll be able to have you on next. So I did want to look ahead a little bit towards, you know, the upcoming summer and where the penguins will go from here and how they'll look moving into the future. And there's two notable players for me that are interesting just because of how these next couple of days or weeks could potentially impact their status. And, you know, in Justin Schultz's case, for example, how much money he could make and where that could be.

And with a guy like Mark Andre Fleury where he could be playing. And I don't know, let's get into the Mark Andre Fleury bit first because, you know, he's been remarkable so far. I think he has a 9-33 save percentage in the eight playoff games with Penguins have played. And he has two more years left on his deal after this season. And he's turning 33. And with Matt Murray on the books for a few years here, it looks like the Penguins won't really be able to keep spending roughly $10 million on their goalies.

So it seems like Flurry is going to be on his way out. And I just wonder, like, how the rest of this postseason shakes out for them and whether he can keep up a really strong level of play would potentially impact. the trading market they would have for him and the intrigue across the league. So that's definitely something to consider that I've been looking at. Yeah, yeah, I think so. You know, there's probably enough GMs in the league who are just fascinated by people who either take their teams deep in the playoffs or, again, if they end up winning a cup or even making the Stanley Cup final, that would

probably be a reason for them to get really excited about Mark Hunter Flurry. Should they be that excited? I don't know. I think he's a good goaltender. I don't think he is a, you know, that elite level. I know up there with Lungwist or Carrie Price or anything. But, you know, all takes as one GM to think that way and, you know, suddenly you have a great deal. So I'm with you.

I do think he, you know, doesn't stick around. It wouldn't make sense financially. And, you know, the penguins, it looks, you know, oh, look how great it all played out for them now because they kept these two, you know, starting quality goaltenders. But I think people forget or choose to overlook. It was awkward for a lot of the season, and it didn't work out well for Flurry because he wanted to start,

and he wasn't comfortable with, you know, splitting time and ultimately being the backup. So, you know, it's nice that it has worked out for them in this recent stretch. Obviously, it's probably easier for Flurry to just go out there and worry about the game when Matt Murray is hurt and not even, you know, close to being back

in the lineup. But, yeah, at the end of the day, I think Flurry, this is the best case scenario for him because he gets kind of ride in the sunset as, you know, the hero of the playoffs or one of the heroes of the playoffs. And, you know, I still, he's not going to command top dollar. I don't think there are really, you know, many goalies in the league that they get any sort of, you know, great return. But if the penguins, you know, are able to get a little bit more than certainly they

would have gotten at the trade deadline. And hey, that's, I guess, you know, slightly more of a win for them. Yeah. Well, and then the other thing with Schultz, as I mentioned, was, you know, you talked earlier in the show about how Mike Sullivan's been rolling his pairs a lot. I, you know, like last night, for example, in game three,

they leaned on the Hainesie, Dumlin pairing quite a bit against Baxter's line, and it did not work out very well for them. I wonder, you know, do you think that moving forward in this series, we continue seeing them spread the wealth or will they be, you know, focusing on using that Hainesie Doolin pairing as their, quote, unquote, shutdown pairing? And do you think that that is a wise move or do you think they'd be smart to, you know, try guys like Schultz and Cole a bit more in high leverage situations? I don't know where I stand on Cole Schultz because they were so good for so much of the season.

Now that was, you know, before Chris Lattang, You know, he went down so many times throughout the year, but they, they clearly are not a top pair, but they were pretty good. You know, they were definitely a solid second pair. So, you know, unfortunately, without Latang, the penguins simply don't have the top pairing right now. So I think if you threw Cole Schultz out there against the backstrom line, would it really work out any better? You know, it's a coin flip in my mind. You know, it probably has to be a touch and go kind of thing where, you know, depends on the night and just how each pairing is playing. I think they use Dumlin and Hainesie because those are two bigger guys and both are pretty sound defensively.

They're good position players. So I think they just trust them to not do the wrong things. That does, I think, lead to them getting stuck in their own end a lot because, again, they're guys are just content to dump the puck out and they're not necessarily looking to make plays. So there may be a safer bet. you're not asking Justin Schultz to you know

not screw up in his own end because I think he is still sometimes prone to that you know Justin has come a long way but there's probably still times where he's a little too ambitious or again just doesn't necessarily make the right decisions in his own end so

you know going forward though I think he is going to be a fascinating new situation for the penguins you know he's indicated that he would like to stay with the penguins and the penguins are certainly happy with what he is done. But that said, they never, no, they never did a contract extension during the season. So, you know, I do wonder, okay, is this the Schultz side, you know, holding out and saying,

we're going to see what the market commands or is this the penguins saying, eh, you know, we're going to see whether you're taking the expansion draft or, you know, we think maybe we can get by with other defense. and I don't know. You know, he's certainly going to get paid a good bit. I don't think anyone doubts that. And again, how much should you really pay a guy that probably is at best the number three defenseman?

You know, I don't know. I guess it'll probably, again, it's kind of like the flurry thing. It only takes one GM for Justin Schultz to get his big payday. Yeah. I definitely think there's going to be a market for him this summer. I mean, there's going to be some GM who just looks at his point totals and is plus minus and gets very excited. But it's like,

that would be the best, actually, the plus minus. Yes. Like, oh boy, plus minus. Yeah, you know it's going to work that way. No, but it's like selfishly, I'd love to see Charlton Cole have to play some of these tougher minutes because that has been the elephant in the room with Schultz where he's definitely looked better.

And you so generously described him as being overly ambitious sometimes. I would describe it as a lack of positional awareness, but, you know, tomato, tomato. But, you know, the Penguins have done a masterful job here, and this is what really good teams do or great teams is they take players and they put him in positions to succeed. And there's no question that Schultz, with his skill set, has done very well playing with better players and not having to play those tough minutes in his own zone against the other team's top guys, which is what Edmonton was asking him to do. It was clearly, you know, not well suited with his skill set. So he's thrived in Pittsburgh and it's always, it's interesting, you know, if you look across their opponent in this series, like this is something that I've raised with T.J. O'Shee a lot where it's like,

if you're a player trying to weigh being in the perfect situation for yourself and just continuing, you know, killing it, being productive, having a great time enjoying yourself versus going for that payday and trying to test your medal and see whether you can actually keep it going because like with Oshie, I mean, he's playing with Ovechkin and Baxter when he's on a top power play unit and, And he's being given every possible chance to succeed. And he's probably just based on how productive he's been priced himself out of the capital's future plans. And I can't see that type of success continuing for pretty much wherever else he goes. And you can definitely draw a very similar parallels to what's happened with Schultz this season in Pittsburgh.

Yeah. And the thing, you know, I can't claim to know Justin Schultz particularly well as a person. Again, we're reporters. We get to go in the room for, you know, 10 to 15 minutes a day, that kind of thing. but he doesn't strike me as a guy that has this huge ego and, you know, is firmly in the belief that he's a number one defenseman. So, you know, he might be willing to go somewhere where, again, he can not be the guy and, you know, essentially have the role that he has in Pittsburgh.

So it'll be interesting to see you. Again, I think, you know, at the end of the day, dollars do speak more than anything else to the players. But, you know, there's, if there's some pragmatism there, yeah, I think certainly for his own play and ultimately for his sanity, because I think Edmonton, it screwed up just a little bit. He lost all confidence, and it's not often to hear players talk about hearing, booing and being aware of that, but Schultz acknowledges that by the end, he was hearing all the boos and just completely kind of crushed about his own game.

So if he wants to avoid getting back to that and having to potentially deal with that again, he would be very smart to go somewhere that again he can kind of maximize his potential without you know exposing himself to the the bad side again yeah well i'm sure we'll uh we'll have plenty of chance to to dust off these conversations and and get back into it uh leading up to july first anyways bill uh plug some stuff what do you what are you working on where can people find you or all that all that jazz well today will probably be sydney crosbie stories but uh yeah you can find whatever I write about for the playoffs and the, you know, expansion draft and everything like that at triblive.com is the, uh, the newspapers website. I tweet most of my stories.

You can find me on Twitter at B-West underscore Trib. Yep, those are kind of the big places to go. All right, man. Well, uh, try not to get into too many, uh, Twitter arguments online over the next couple days with, uh, with Capitals fans and, uh, enjoy the rest of the postseason, and we'll hopefully get you back on the show sometime soon. I'm just going to keep tweeting about PDO until I'm right. Thanks for the time, Dimitri. All right, chat team, man.

The Hockey PEDEOCast with Dmitri Filippovich. Follow on Twitter at Dim Filippovich and on SoundCloud at soundcloud.com slash hockey pdiocast.