The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 172: The Fourth Forward

Episode Date: June 7, 2017

Tyler Dellow joins the show to discuss how the Penguins haven't been able to deal with Nashville's forecheck, what adjustments they can make in the final legs of the series to change that, Roman Josi's unconventional playing style, and evaluating the contributions of the defense position. 1:22 Predators aggressive forechecking 6:03 Adjustments for Mike Sullivan 8:30 Last year's Penguins vs. this year's Penguins 13:56 Deployment of Nashville's defensemen 16:01 The Penguins Model 19:46 What You Create minus What You Give Up 26:05 The 4th Forward 32:46 Power play shot quality 36:13 The art of the offer sheet Sponsoring today’s show is SeatGeek, which is making it easier than ever before to buy and sell sports and concert tickets. They’re giving our listeners a $20 rebate off of their first purchase. All you have to do is download the free SeatGeek app and enter the promo code PDO to get started. Every episode of the podcast is available on iTunes, Soundcloud, Google Play, and Stitcher. Make sure to subscribe to the show so that you don’t miss out on any new episodes as they’re released. All ratings and reviews are also greatly appreciated. Thanks for listening! See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Are you ready for the most ridiculous internet sports show you have ever seen? Welcome to React, home of the most outrageous and hilarious videos the web has to offer. So join me, Rocky Theos, and my co-host, Raiders Pro Bowl defensive end, Max Crosby, as we invite your favorite athletes, celebrities, influencers, entertainers in for an episode of games, laughs, and, of course, the funniest reactions to the wildest web clips out there. Catch React on YouTube, and that is React. R-E-A-X-X. Don't miss it. This podcast episode is brought to you by Coors Light.

These days, everything is go, go, go. It's non-stop hustle all the time. Work, friends, family. Expect you to be on 24-7? Well, sometimes you just need to reach for a Coors Light because it's made to chill. Coors Light is cold-loggered, cold-filtered, and cold-packaged.

It's as crisp and refreshing as the Colorado Rockies. It is literally made to chill. Coors Light is the one I choose when I need to unwind. So when you want to hit reset, reach for the beer that's made to chill. Get Coors Light and the new look delivered straight to your door with Drisley or Instacart. Celebrate responsibly. Coors Brewing Company, Golden Colorado. Regressing to the mean since 2015, it's the Hockey P.D.O.cast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich.

Welcome to the Hockey Pediocast. My name is Demetri Philopovich. And joining me is my good buddy Tyler Dello. Tyler, what's going on, man? No much, Dimitri. How are you doing, pal? Good. We're recording this on a Wednesday, is it Tuesday or Wednesday? I'm losing track, man. I'm so sleep-deprived with all this playoffs stuff going on.

I don't even know what day it is anymore. I think it's Tuesday morning. It is Tuesday morning. You're probably confused because of the two-day breaks between series. Yes. That's probably what's throwing you off. Yes, let's go with that. No, it's Tuesday morning. We're recording this the morning after game four concluded. So, you know, people have been asking me to, you know, when's the next show going to happen? Because I haven't really done anything since the series preview.

And I typically don't want to, you know, record reactionary podcasts after each game because so much changes in the dynamics of a series. But I think we've seen at least enough now from these two teams going head to head to make some sort of tentative conclusions. And I don't know. Like, what's been the biggest story for you through these first four games? hopefully it's something other than goal-tending because I don't even know what to say about that anymore at this point.

I think for me the biggest story has been sort of, you know, the way Nashville's outshot Pittsburgh. You know, and the fact that they're doing something with it too, right? Like they're turning it into goals. One of the things I was worried about with the Predators coming into this series was how they were going to score goals, just given the state of their top six forwards. It's like losing Ryan Johansson and Kevin Fiala really hurt them.

And, you know, they've – I'm not as surprised that they've managed to out-shoot Pittsburgh, just given, you know, that they still have a pretty good team in place. I am surprised that they've managed to turn it into as many five-on-five goals as they have. Well, I mean, it's two-fold. Part of it is obviously just the pure volume, particularly from the first two games. But then I thought in games three and four, they did a really good job of sort of just taking. taking advantage of that foot speed advantage they might have, especially against the penguins, blue liners and really creating a bunch of odd man rushes and breakaways and converting on a

couple of them, I know, Arvitz and had one and, you know, Craig Smith's had one. So, yeah, it's, it's interesting how, how it's flipped because after two games, it was very easy to, you know, make these sort of snap judgments about how the penguins had conquered shot quality and whether we need to reevaluate that. And then it's kind of nice to see that, you know, a little normalcy has been restored and the Penguins and the Predators have finally been rewarded for how well they've been playing at 5-1-5 in these last two games. Well, I sort of see two things there. Like, first of all, to me, it's not just a foot speed thing. Like, it's, the Penguins' defense doesn't really seem to be able to handle getting four-checked. Like, the amount of times that the forecheck has kind of led to,

you know, a lost puck battle for the Penguins' defense, followed by a turnover, followed by a chance is just unreal. And if you go back to game one, you see, like, James Neal had that chance when it was 3-3 and he hit the crossbar, right? And, you know, that whole play came from Pittsburgh getting in on the,

or Nashville getting in on Pittsburgh's defense and putting them under a lot of pressure and just, you know, they couldn't win puck battles. And even I think either the 3-3 or the 3-2 goal in that game was the same thing, right? Like, the Preds got down the ice first, two pens D get back, and

they can't knock the guy off the puck. And to me, like, that's really, you know, been a story of this is when the, you know, when the pressure comes on the predators on the penguin's defense, I hate having two P teams in the final. Yeah. But when the pressure comes, they just can't deal with it. And, you know, you just see it over and over and over that the puck gets turned over. And even like last night, the first goal, it was, you know, the pressure comes on Ole Mata, and he sort of fires a nice waist-high pass to a penguin at the hash marks,

turn over goal. And it just keeps happening over and over and over. Yeah, I was mulling this idea over throughout the series against the senators. And I noticed that you tweeted something along the same lines out last night as well. And it's sort of this, you know, the question of why the senators weren't trying to be more aggressive with their fore-chicken and take advantage of that lack of ability to deal with it that we're seeing. series because, you know, we made so much, so much, gave so much attention to that one three one they were running and how it was stifling them through the neutral zone. But it did feel like

there was an opportunity to really create some easy looks just based on the Penguins defensemen not being able to get out of their own way. And I don't really think they took advantage of that. Well, was it stifling them through the neutral zone? Because by the end of that series, it certainly felt like Pittsburgh had it figured out. Yeah, it wasn't the first two games for sure. Yeah, but that's, you know, and I think that's a great question. Like, And it's funny, like I had somebody sort of saying to me last night, oh, you know, Guy Boucher would say, well, we forecheck the same as everybody else. And, you know, I don't know that I buy that.

I think the point at which the Sends kind of drop into the 131 is a point at which other teams might be aggressively forechecking. And when you've got a team whose defense just cannot handle it, and it's interesting, right, because the Predators got pretty passive later in that series against Anaheim. but all of a sudden they're right back at it and you know when you've got a team with a defense group like that it's an interesting challenge for the coach

in terms of you know are you willing to take the risk of what happens when they do hit the past or Crosby or Malkin or Kessel or whoever and you know going into the series I thought this was the right play for the predators and you know four games in it still looks like a pretty good decision Well, it's an interesting dilemma for Mike Sullivan on the other end of things because, you know, he's gotten a ton of credit over the past year and a half or so since he took over with all the success they've had as a team. And it's always been tough to try and, you know, balance or differentiate between how much of it was his own doing and how much was just the pure ability and the horses he had on this team. And it's going to be fascinating to see if he has any sort of adjustments up his sleeve heading back to Pittsburgh for game five because I don't, you know, maybe that's why he's paid the big. bucks and we're not because I'm struggling to see what they can do to help those defensemen out beyond I don't know just like getting the forwards to draw back lower and how and using guys like

Kessel and Malkin and Crosby to try and just pretty much just take the puck out of at of Ron Hainesie's hands and break out themselves like I don't I don't really see uh schematically what they can do with the personnel they have it seems like their hands are kind of tied behind their back here yeah it's it's a couple things there like it's funny like I do think Mike Sullivan's a really good coach And the way that Penguins team played last year was just unbelievable. But I think you sort of see what happens, you know, on an NHL team. Like the talent is so level now between teams that when you lose a key guy or two, it just screws everything up.

And you go back to that Penguins team last year. Like they had that third line of Kessel and Hagelin. And it was, it was unbelievable. Like I think, I think like after Christmas, those guys generated, when they were on the ice, the Penguins generated like 42, two five on five shots an hour. It's just a ridiculous number. Like the league average is something like 27, 28.

There's bad power plays that don't generate 42 shots an hour. Like it was crazy. But, you know, I think a lot of that comes from you have to have guys in the right spot. And, you know, like, to Sullivan's, you know, credit, he certainly, you know, found the right spot to put guys in. And like when they got to the, I mean, like, I remember the last two rounds. last year. I wanted to see Tampa win because I liked John Cooper. And I wanted to see San Jose win just because I think, you know, Joe Thornton's taking a lot of unfair heat in his career. But watching those two series, you know, there was no point at which you were like, yes, San Jose or Tampa

has the better team. Like Pittsburgh just, Pittsburgh did to them what Nashville is doing to them this year. And I really do think a lot of it is just, you know, this is what happens when you don't have, when you don't have the death. You just get taken apart. Yeah, but I mean, obviously, you know the Latang injury is you can't really overstayed just he was playing like nearly 30 minutes a night towards the end of that postseason and just you know the ability to bridge the gap there was huge but like beyond that I mean like why has that that that line I mean I guess Haglan's been banged up a bit and so was Benino but like even while the three of them were healthy they still weren't playing the same way as they were last year like is it just like like do you have any any sort of ideas for

why that is beyond they're just not playing as well as they were last season? I kind of wonder what's been up with Benino. Before the playoffs, I wrote about this. Because, you know, Pittsburgh, it wasn't just a playoff thing. Pittsburgh's third line all year wasn't what it was, you know, post-Sullivan last year. And, you know, if you separate Kessel and Bonino, Kessel looks a lot better. So, I don't know. I kind of wonder if there's something up with Benino this year.

And I also think a player like Hagelin, like I think it's a foot with him. And for a guy whose game is really built on his speed, playing with a foot. problem is probably a pretty big, you know, issue for him. Yes. So, you know, it's, you know, I don't know, to me, like the big, you know, one of the big lessons here is, you know, it's hard to win. And you need so much luck to win, even if you're a great team. And just as far as health, right?

Like, you know, like, even, like, if you look at Nashville, if they lose this series, they're going to wonder forever what would have happened if, you know, Johansson hadn't had that sort of innocuous bump that resulted in compartments in. syndrome against Anaheim. And with Pittsburgh, you know, like I'm sure they'll wonder forever if we had Latang and if we had, you know, Hagelin in better condition, you know, where would we be? Yeah, that's fair. I mean, yeah, I'm trying to rack my like. It's, it must really tell you how little they think of a guy like Mark Stry, for example, that he can't draw into the series just based on the struggles that we've seen from these other guys. Like, I know that

there's questions about his own footspeed and how he deal with these four checkers, but it does seem like he at least has like a higher baseline level of skill to move the puck, and that might be something that would benefit them. And beyond that, I'm not sure what there is to do, really. I'm sort of surprised. Yeah, I'm surprised that, you know, he couldn't get in either. Like, if he looked at his season in Philly, his numbers weren't terrible. Yeah.

And just looking at how Pittsburgh's defense has struggled, right? Like, you know, it's a surprise that he can't get in. But, you know, I don't know, hockey's funny that way. Like, coaches sort of decide they like a player or they don't like a player. and, you know, like, sometimes it's pretty small differences, and they seize on one issue and, you know, a guy stays out. Now, strike didn't look good when he came in against Ottawa, as I recall. But, you know, I'm not stunned that he can't get in.

You know, you wonder at this point when he's been out for so long what he could do. But, you know, I, gosh, like, what else can you do? You might as well try it. Yeah, I mean, I raised this topic earlier and got interesting responses to it. But for whatever reason, people don't seem to, they seem to give a guy like Olimata a lot of free passes. I know he's dealt with a lot of injuries and unfortunate circumstances health-wise. And that's probably played a large part in stunting his development and have up and down performance. But he's a guy that's looked really, really shaky throughout this postseason and especially in the series.

and he'd be like a top candidate for me to either play a smaller role or be taken out of the lineup, but it seems like that's not going to happen at this point in time. Yeah, I'm amazed at how bad he's been, right? And it's funny, right? Because if you don't, like, I don't know, you can only watch so many teams. Like, it's, you know, like, I've been kind of joking a bit about this, but I'm amazed at the number of people in Canada who have strong opinions about how the predators avoid their defense.

And it's just like, you know, if you're a Canadian media guy, the Nashville predators are pretty low on the list of teams. You need to know what's going on with. And, you know, so it's a case where, you know, and to go back to Matt, it's a case where, you know, he was a guy who you always heard, oh, yeah, he's a good player, good player, good player. And, you know, like, I don't know, how many times you're watching Pittsburgh in a year, even if you're someone who really follows hockey? like it's it's a big league Pittsburgh's probably not your favorite team you know you're only seeing him so many times and I can't get over how bad he's been in the playoffs

and it's kind of like I went back and looked a little bit and you really wonder when you start to look at some of his numbers like he's been good with good players with good partners but away from good partners it looks like it's always been a bit of a bit of a circus and you know like you know I sort of took a 10 15 minute look because I was kind of interested in the disconnect between what I'd always heard about him

and what I was seeing watching him in the playoffs. And, you know, I kind of wonder if he's someone who gets a lot of credit because he gets a lot of points, and I think that absolutely happens. But, you know, and it's played with good players, which makes him look better. But, you know, when he's on his own, all of a sudden look out because it is not a pretty picture. Yeah, he doesn't have much to fall back on. Yeah, so let's talk a bit about, you know, the deployment of those Predators, defensemen and the way they're using them.

It's interesting we've seen, especially when this series shifted to Nashville and Peter Lalviel had last change that he definitely started going, I don't know, is it fair to say that he started going towards more of a matchup with Yos C and Ellis versus Crosby? I know that was the case in Game 3. I haven't necessarily looked at the matchup numbers for Game 4 yet. I think that was the case in game four. I'll just look now, but I'm pretty sure that was the case. And you're right, like when he's in Pittsburgh, when he's in Pittsburgh, right, obviously,

without last change, all you can do is try and shelter that third pair. And because that third pair is, sorry, because that third pair is, you know, because you don't have last change, really what it means is you're sort of down to putting them out on the fly when you're pretty comfortable that Sid or Malkins line isn't coming over the boards. And, you know, I do think once he got back to Nashville, he

was able to get into a situation where he gets more of kind of a traditional matchup. And I look, I wrote about this actually yesterday over at the athletic. And, you know, one of the things I noticed was something like two out of three shifts for

the third pair, Erwin, and Weber, in Pittsburgh, in were on the fly shifts and you know yosey and ellis were getting a pile of shifts that started with face-offs and i think that was just a function of him trying to shelter uh you know irwin and and and weber and prevent sullivan from getting a free shot at them by putting them out in the ice for a face-off yeah well i mean i thought crosbie was you know i know he scored a couple points in game one but i thought he'd been held relatively in check he obviously looked a lot better um in game four war, you know, he scored the breakaway goal.

He had another breakaway that the Rene stopped. And I think that was an encouraging sign for the penguins because if they're going to get over these depth issues and the blue line concerns and everything that we've talked about so far that's plagued them in the series, I think they're going to just basically need like a Hercules effort from him and from him and Malkin to bridge the gap and make up for all those deficiencies. Yeah, well, Dom, you know Dom, the guy, the unpronounceable last. Yeah, Dom L, yes. Yeah, Dom L, the legendary Dom L.

he had a good story up today, talking about sort of how often do teams that get out shot like the penguins win the Stanley Cup? And the answer is basically never. But the interesting thing is right, is that like Pittsburgh is, you know, like they're a freak team.

Like they have, with Kessel, Crosby and Malkin, like they have three guys who can really put the puck in the net and they don't need that many chances. And so if there is one team that can do it, I do think it's Pittsburgh. I don't think this is a,

I don't think this is any sort of a sustainable model or a way you should do things. But I do think Pittsburgh has the high-end guys that they can do it this way. And, you know, the odds are probably against them, but they're good enough that they can make it happen anyway. Yeah, I love that when the team has some sort of success like this, and then all of a sudden people try to make these overarching conclusions

and trying to, you know, carry it over to the rest of the league and be like, oh, is this a model that other teams should, It's like, yeah, well, if you get guys like Crosby and Walkin, then I'm pretty sure you could play any which way and have at least like a heightened level of success compared to other teams with a different starting point. Sure. And it's something like if you talk to Rangers fans or Canadians fans, right? Like they'll talk about it. And like having a really talented player, it's a blessing, but it can also be a curse because it can sort of blind you. You think you're so close, but it can blind you to feelings within your team because that one player can,

can do so much for you. And it's funny, like back in the old days of when people were first getting into this stuff and kicking it around, and keep in mind, a lot of this was done in Oilers blogs. There were people who were like, wow, this doesn't make any sense, you know, the 80s Oilers would get outshot and they'd win, you know, 8.5. And it's like, yeah, if you have Wayne Gretzky, Yari, Curry, Paul Coffey, and Mark Messier, fill your boots. But, you know, looking around most teams in the NHL, I'm not seeing a Wayne Graskey.

Yeah, no, that's true. Especially how having that one player can really blind you and make you think that you're closer than you are. That's especially the case with goalies. I feel like both the Montreal Canadians and the New York Rangers have suffered from that in the past, however many years where it's like guys like Price and Lundquist are just so good that they kind of trick you into believing that you actually have a much better team than you do. And then all of a sudden if they stop saving like 93 plus percent shots or whatever they're facing, all of a sudden you don't have anything to fall back on you, you get exposed a little bit. Yeah, I wonder with like a guy like, with guys like Price and Lungfist, if they'd be like almost better off just saying, you know what, I'm just going to sign one year contracts as a free agent.

And I'm just going to go to a team that's got, you know, great possession. And, you know, basically a team that's already a great team, but they just needs a goalie. And, you know, that way they can avoid having teams sort of think they're better than they are because they're bailing them out so much. Yeah. I think that'd be a fascinating thing. I'm sure that both their agents and the NHLPA might not necessarily love that that much though. Yeah, well, that's, you know,

but hey, you've got to serve yourself, right? Yes. They don't work for the PA or work for their agents. They should do it in their best interest. And, you know, goaltending is such a strange position, and that really does seem like a, you know, a way to get around the fact that by their very presence, they undermine in some ways the team's efforts

because they make them so much better. Yeah. Do you want to talk a little bit about Roman Yosi? Because I feel like you've been hammering this stuff pretty aggressively online. And I'm not sure if you wanted to get into a little discussion about it. Sure. No, I'm happy to talk about Roman Yose. What's your, ask me about Roman Yose.

Well, how about I give you my opinion on Romani Yose first? You cool with that? It's interesting because this stuff always happens in the internet. But it's like you can never have this, you know, realistic middle ground of an opinion of a player. It's always like the most underrated guy or the most overrated guy and the pendulum just swing so far back and forth depending on the day or the week. And I'm, you know, somewhere in the middle of it. Like I think Momoyosi is an excellent player who does a bunch of things really well. I think that, you know, sometimes it's easy to overvalue a guy like

him, just if you're looking at purely at the point totals because the other stuff matters too. So I think you need to keep that in mind for contextual purposes. but I also don't think he's necessarily like the, you know, the major liability that his biggest detractors also think he is. Like I thought, I thought the way you described him as having a fourth forward on the ice was,

was pretty apt and also an interesting way to look at it. Well, okay, there's a few things here. First of all, um, and see, this always drives me nuts, but it's like, you know,

writing, oh, you know, if you agree with the conventional wisdom, writing, I agree with the conventional, wisdom is a waste of everybody's time. Yes.

Like it's, you know, you know, who, you know, who, you know, who cares? You know, people think, like, you know, I don't know. Can you imagine reading anything less interesting than a, hey, sit Crosby's great? Like, it's just, we all know he's great, you know. There's, there's no argument that he's not great. Who wants to read that? So to start with, like, I think the interesting topics, at least for me, from an analytics perspective, and even, you know, even generally, our cases where,

where, you know, the whole world says the emperor's got a nice new suit. And, you know, when you look at the evidence, you know, the dummy's actually naked. So that's my first point. And, you know, I think Yosey's a case where there's something to that. Now, here's where, you know, I have a real issue with, you know, and it's funny. Like, you know, you talk about Yosey as a fourth forward. I agree. He plays like a fourth forward.

And I don't know if you saw those shot maps I put out of Yosey and Suban. But you can see kind of where they shoot the puck from in the office. defensive zone. And if you didn't know that they played the same position, you would, you would think that, uh, that Suban was, uh, you know, a defenseman and Yosey was something different. So now where, where I get, you know, where, where I get, you know, sticky about these things is that to me, it's, it's, it's what you create minus what you give up. And then you get into an argument about, well, how do you measure what you create? And a lot of people think for defensemen, well, you look at his points. I don't agree with that. And, you know, like every time Roman Yossi jumps off the

blue line to get into the offensive zone, somebody else has to cover for him. And so there's a forward dropping back. And you'll see cases a defenseman who get a lot of points, but the forwards get fewer points when they're on the ice. And I guarantee you Yose is one of those guys. If you look at how many goals the Predators score when he's on the ice, it's not really that impressive. Like he has an unbelievably impressive point total for defensemen, but they don't score a they don't score, I think they're like an average, maybe slightly above average goal scoring team when he's on the ice. So, you know, the question is, what better measures his impact? Is it the points that he's getting? Or is it the, you know, the fact that the Preds are a little

bit above average as a goal scoring team when he's on the ice? I'm inclined to think it's the latter. And so what you're left with then is a player who, you know, gets an enormous amount of personal personal credit for the points he puts up because, you know, in hockey, for whatever reason, we measure offense by this archaic system of assigning credit for goals based on who last touched the puck, the last three guys to touch the puck that came up 80 years ago. You know, there's no, there's no theoretical basis for that way of doing it. And so, like, I think what you really see is you see Yossi make a lot of plays in the offensive zone that would have been made by, you know, a forward if Yosey,

wasn't jumping into the play. So that's, you know, that's, that's the create side of the ledger for me. Then you get into the what do you give up? Well, to start with, if you're a defenseman consistently jumping off the blue line, there's a price that your team pays in terms of having a forward there if the puck goes back the other way. And I think you saw it last night on the second, the second Crosby breakaway. You have Yossi pinch up the boards.

And this isn't a perfect example because I really believe in defensemen pinching up the boards. but you had Yarncrock on the far side of the ice, and he didn't read that he needed to get out of there early enough, in my view. And what happened was, you know, you get the breakaway in part because Yarncrock doesn't back off, you know, through recognition of what's happening on the other side of the ice. That's just my opinion on. I think a defenseman might have backed off earlier.

So you've got players as a result, you know, defending positions that they, you know, aren't their natural position. And when you look at what the. predators give up when Yossi's on the ice, particularly, you know, compared to when Kohlman-Soupan are on the ice, because that's the natural comparison. It's astronomical. They give up a lot more. And, you know, it's, if people want to say, oh, he's a, you know, he's a really good defenseman, he's a really good defenseman, well, how do you reconcile that with how much they give up? And that, to me, is the real issue. And I haven't heard a good argument

or a good explanation for, you know, what they give up. And if you go back, and this is interesting, but, like, if you go back to last year of the year before, when Eckholm was with Ellis. Ellis had great defensive numbers. And this year, Ellis is a bit of a train wreck. And, you know, at some point you have to go, well, what's the common denominator here, right? And to me, it's Yossi. So, you know, for me, looking at the evidence, I just don't see any evidence from a data perspective.

He's a great defenseman. And, you know, so that's kind of where I am with him. Well, I think, you know, for our purposes here, from a more sort of a practical perspective, the interesting question would be, like, what would happen if you just played an actual fourth forward, like, let's say, a Craig Smith or, you know, a sort of like an average, like, second, third line guy there instead of Roman Yossi as the fourth guy on the ice, like, what would happen then? Because I know that Matt Kane wrote about this, I think, last week, about whether teams should be playing four forwards when they're down late and trailing. And I don't know,

It's an interesting discussion. We talk so much about this idea of total hockey and whether we're eventually going to reach a time where you just have five versatile players on the ice. They can all do a bunch of different stuff and whether positions are something that's going to stay around forever. And I think that's a much more interesting discussion than debating, you know, whether Roman Yossi is the 10th best defenseman in the league or the 40th or whatever. I don't know. What do you think about that? Or the 80. I don't know.

I guess I think that's an interesting question. I'm a little skeptical of the whole four-forward idea, you know, at five-on-five, obviously love it on the power play. Like, to me, a lot of these sort of quote-unquote total football stuff that people talk about, like a big thing is having, you know, having your defensemen be willing to step up to keep pucks in the offensive zone. And you don't need to be a forward to do that. You just need to be willing to not just back off the blue line every single time. You know, so I'm, you know, like the issue that I really have, with, you know, sort of say going forwards and whatnot, is that, you know, you've got to defend, too.

And, you know, if you're a forward defending the rush, it's not what you usually do. You know, you're not, you haven't spent 20 years perfecting kind of your gap. You know, it would be interesting if we had the player tracking data to see what happens on a rush when one of the two guys back is a forward versus one of the two guys back being a defenseman. But I bet you there's a big difference. Yeah, I mean, Alvin, you do see. that, you know, if a forward gets it in transition and he notices that it is an opposing forward that's defending him instead of the defenseman, he does typically tend to attack him more aggressively.

But I'm skeptical of the idea that, you know, I think defending at the NHL level is very hard one-on-one. You often see guys just like if it's a prototypical defensive defenseman that's sort of known for just being positionally sound and blocking shots and doing stuff like that and doesn't really contribute anything else. I don't think there's that much value in those types of players. And I'm always, I always have my eyebrows raised when, you know, you hear how a guy like Carl Alzner, for example, is going to get five plus million dollars in free agency this summer.

You're just like, why? What is he bringing to the table beyond all these sort of intangibles that he's been glorified for having? But we actually haven't seen any real evidence of. Okay. What's the difference between Yossi and Carl Alzner? Roman Yose has actual skills But do those skills result in

Do those skills result in You know positive A marginally larger positive impact on the hockey game That's a fair question I don't know do this I'm skeptical I just yeah like that's that's where you come Like again it's what you create

Why you give up You know Olsner doesn't create much. But, but, you know, I think that we think Yossi creates more than he does, or I think we think his marginal impact on what the team creates is bigger than it is because of the way in which we award points. And, and so, you know, like, I, look, I agree with everything you've said about, you know, how do players impact the game. But, you know, I'm not sure what the case is that he has a massive impact on the game.

Yeah, I do wonder if it's just one of those things where when he does pull off. something, it looks so good that it's very easy to sort of trick yourself into believing that it's better than it actually is. And you obviously latch on to the successful plays and not, and you know, kind of dismiss the other stuff where he might be completely out of position or pinch and it leads to something coming the other way. It's not even that it's better than it actually is. It's that it's more, you know, you think it's more valuable than it actually. Yeah. And like he, like, you know, like, you know, obviously like he does things and you go, holy cow, Like it looks, you know, the eye is drawn to the man on the ice.

Like he made a play last night where he like on the attack, around the net, you know, creating opportunities. But, you know, the hard thing for people to do is to think, okay, well, if it was a defenseman who did that less aggressively, what would happen on the ice? And that's, it's a much harder question to answer. And all you can do is kind of really try to get added indirectly through sort of looking at, you know, impact on goals. shots, et cetera. But when you do that, the guy doesn't look nearly as impressive. Yeah. Well, I think it's only fair. You know, Nashville has a bunch of really good defensemen. I think they should, and Pittsburgh doesn't. I think that Roman Yosey should

just play for the pegments to the rest of the series and we'll see how valuable he actually is. I'd love to see that. It's interesting. Looking at the expansion draft, I really think that Nashville has to think long and hard about trading a defenseman. and, you know, for me, when you look at how Sterling his reputation is throughout the league, and I think, like, if people went and pulled a list of guys, like, defensemen, who put up points but don't impact possession, they would be surprised at, you know, the general reputations of those defensemen. Like, generally speaking, after a few years, people kind of figure them out.

And, like, Ollie Matt is one of those guys. Right. And, you know, two years ago, what were people saying about all of them? Mali Mata. And, you know, so it's, to me, it's a very interesting discussion. It's a very interesting thing, basically, because it gets to the heart of, like, how the game works and how the ways that people have come up with to describe what happens on the ice kind of lies to them or misleads them. And, you know, I'd be fascinated if they traded them, because I'd have to think with the, you know, with the way people talk about them. And, you know, a lot of

these media guys are just kind of conduits for opinions that they hear from, from scouts or whatnot. So obviously there's a lot of people who think really highly of Yossi. I'd be very interested what happened if Nashville turned him into a high end forward, protected the forward and then went and found a fourth defenseman after after free agency or after after the expansion draft. And that would also let them get into running two four forward one defense units next year, which I think would would serve them well because their power play is a bit of a it's a bit of a sore point. Yeah, what do you what do you, I've had some discussions on the podcast over the past couple weeks about National's Power Play.

I know that you've been looking at this quite closely. Like, do you think it's just a matter of they're just kind of trying to set up the wrong stuff and taking shots from the wrong places? Or do you think there's something more to it? No, that's basically it, right? Like it's, and, you know, it again, Dimitri goes back to what we talked about with Price, right? Like, great players, you know, can kind of fool you into doing something that isn't necessarily good or thinking you're better than you are, thinking that parts of your team are better than you

are. And like Nashville does have three guys. And like I, you know, I got, I have no problems. So you see on the power play. Like, like the argument for me with him is a five on five thing. And the same, you know, obviously I really like PK and, you know, I think that is a real good player too. So, you know, but, but what I think, you know, you almost wonder what happens there is whether or not, you know, you've got this guy who's got a really good skill, but it's not great at kind of driving goal difference. And, you know, like, Ellis can hammer the puck.

The problem is, it's hard to score from, you know, five feet to the left of the dot on the power play when you're out near the blue line. And he's shooting a lot from out there. And if you look at a map, it's funny. Like, I actually think Nashville's power play has been lucky in the playoffs. If you look at a shot map, like,

they shoot a ton from the outside. and they aren't really scoring from out there. I think they've got maybe two or three goals from out there. And then they've got a bunch of goals that have kind of hit people in front of the net. So, and if you look at them in the regular season, their power play stunk. And to me, you know, what's going on there is that Nashville is just generating way too many shots that aren't, you know, highly efficient shots. And, you know, I think, like I said, I think they've been a bit fortunate in the playoffs.

But I don't think it's a very efficient way of doing the power play. but I think it's partly driven by the fact that they've got these guys who, you know, as far as shooting from the outside goes, are pretty good. But it doesn't necessarily make it a smart thing to do. Yeah, it's an opportunity costing. It's funny how I'm a big believer that, you know, five on five people put way too much stock and emphasis on shot quality, but on the power play, for whatever reason, I feel like it goes completely the other way where they're not really paying enough attention to it. So it's fascinating. That dynamic between how those two different phases of the game work. Yeah, it's, you know, yeah, like in the long run, you have to have shot volume.

And there are no long-term good power plays that don't have shot volume. And it's funny, like every year people, oh, maybe this is the one, maybe this is the one. And then, you know, it kind of blows up. And it was, we saw it this year with Montreal, right? Like, Eric Engels had a piece on Sportsnet. And it kind of was hinting that maybe the Canadians had solved shot quality. Right. And we had a bunch of quotes from people there.

Oh, you know, we want to set up. the good shot. And then like Montreal's power play like stopped working once they won once they like literally as soon as the article went up, the power play stopped working. And and it's it's you know like it's like I say, you know, to me you want to make your bets based on things that have been historically good in the long run. And these low shot volume power plays or power plays that shoot from the outside, it's a hard way to make a living.

Yeah. All right. Before we get out of here, I do want to quickly talk about this. Colton-Pryko article you wrote about recently because it seems to have generated some interesting discussion online. I'll give you a chance here to just kind of sum up. Give people the too long, didn't read version of the argument you were making in it. Sure, this is, I guess, for the people who are trashing it on TSN radio without reading it?

Yes, exactly, yes. I was trying to kind of hint at that without actually dragging people on here because I'm trying to be a bit nicer these days, time. Oh man, I miss the old, the old kid. You got soft to meet me. Yeah, okay, so basically the premise of the article is this. The Leafs are in a pretty unique position with respect to both the salary cap and talent, because they've got a pile of salary cap room this year.

And they're a very good team. Like, I think they're a better team than their spot in the standings would suggest. So, you know, the challenge for the Leafs becomes then, how do you get more high-end talent when you're going to be drafting in the 20s, you know, likely for the foreseeable future? And historically, offer sheets are a bad idea for a number of reasons. First, you know, you have to be a really good team for an offer sheet, like to make adding that one player be worth it.

And, you know, like I say, like there was a TSN segment critiquing this and they're talking about the Leafs being in year two of a rebuild. If you think the Leafs are in year two of a rebuild, I'm so. but like like the you know the rebuild is over it's wind time yes we're here yeah yeah and and you know like so like the leifs are they're good enough that adding one high-hand player could make a real difference for them so that's kind of the first point um and like historically like you know the classic offer sheet that succeeded was the oilers offer sheet with dust and penner and you know like the issue with that was that the oilers weren't one good player away in 2008 and or 2000

seven, I guess it was. And the Leafs, I think they're one really good player away from being a very tough out in the playoffs. So that's a little bit different. Second, you know, there's no point making an offer sheet if it's to a team that has a pile of salary cap room because they can match it. So all you're doing is, you know, then is you're just wasting everybody's time and making enemies with no reasonable hope of success. So that's that's the second point. The third point is people overvalue draft picks. Yeah. And, you know, like, once you get out of the real top of the draft,

your odds of finding, you know, a high-end player fall dramatically. And I put less weight on, you know, oh, we're going to draft some fourth liners and we want our fourth line being homegrown. I just don't think that that's that important. And personally, like, like, for me, the draft is about finding things that you can't find elsewhere. And so the draft really then is about. how do we get high-end players?

And if you think you're going to be picking in the 20s, or if all reasonable expectations are that you're going to be picking in the 20s, your chances of finding a star, even with four draft picks in the 20s, aren't very good. Like you might, I think you have like a 30% chance with four first-round picks in the 20s, or four first-run facts, not just in the 20s, but as a playoff team. So that's, what is that now, 17 to 31 these days or 16 to 31? Yeah, 16 to 61.

So you've got, yeah, 30% chance, say, of getting a star with four of those picks. So, you know, if you can trade four of those picks for 100% chance of getting a star, that seems like good business to me. And the thing is, like, for most teams, like, again, you go back to that oilers signing a penner, right? The Oilers weren't in a position where if they got one star, it'd make a huge difference. They needed to go into the lottery or go into the draft and beat the odds a few times in order to set themselves up for real success. And the Leafs aren't in that position anymore.

Like what the Leafs need is sort of certainty of high-end players. And so, you know, St. Louis this year is in a really just awkward position because I think they've got about $4,000, $4.5 million with the cap space. It sounds like there's a pretty good chance the cap's going to be flat next year. And if they had to clear out space for Pareco by moving people, And this is keep in mind, we're before the expansion draft. But if they had to clear out space for Pareko by moving people, it would get very difficult for them because they're really looking at,

assuming Petrangelo and Tar Cinco are untouchable. They're having to move two or three people. And they'd have to do that in the space of a week to match a big dollar deal. So, you know, for me, what it breaks down to is how do you get a high-end player? The draft is one way of doing it. but if you can get a, you know, a high-end player for, say, four first-round draft picks and $12 million, I think that's a good piece of business.

Yeah. Well, I mean, especially for a player like Parico, like I'm one of his biggest believers and have been for a while now. So I think that the net gain for the Leafs, they're just inserting him into the lineup next season, but all of a sudden make them a pretty interesting team, and especially in that Atlantic Division, which I feel like is pretty ripe for the taking.

Yeah, well, and like, Peraco's played better competition than people realize. And I'm not really sold on the partners you've had. Like St. Louis is a strange team where I really like the right side of their defense, but the left side's a little bit shaky. And that's not usually the case. Like, you know, left side defensemen are easier to find as a rule. But St. Louis is, for whatever reason, really strong on the right side.

And if you look at the Leaves, right, like, I like the left side, the Leaves defense. I'm not sold on the right side. So there seems to me to be a bit of synergy there. as far as him fitting exactly what they need. And then you look at the right-handed defenseman free agent market this year. Everyone thinks Shackenkerk's going somewhere on the eastern seaboard in the U.S. So that doesn't really leave much. And, you know, like, one of the arguments was, well, you know,

all the other players are going to be pissed off if you pay a guy big money for a year. And I don't know, maybe they will be, but, you know, do you want to win? And if you want to win, and this is a way to get talent without giving us. anyone off the roster. You know, like, it's, it's kind of a function of a planned economy as you get some weird things, right? And the NHL is a, is a planned economy. So sometimes the incentives get a little bit screwing.

Yeah, I think once they're one of the best teams they use are in conference, I feel like that'll be an easier pill to swallow for the other players already in the locker room. Yeah, yeah. So, and I don't know. Like, I don't like players are stupid. Like, you know, like the guys on the leaps who are, who are going to get paid at some point, you know, like, I don't know, you try and put yourself in that position. And if you understood that, you know, like, think of it as if we're paying Pareco $5 million and paying $7 million to St. Louis

for them, you know, like, like, like, like, where the money goes shouldn't be an issue. Like, I can't understand why you would be okay if the leaks could trade seven, you know, four, first round draftex and $7 million to St. Louis. And then, like, I can't understand. And then, make Pareko 5. But if it's four first round drop picks and 12 for Pareko, all of a sudden this causes massive dressing room turmoil. It doesn't make, I don't know, to me I say what's the difference? You know, either way, it would be your team going out and plugging a hole

without moving any of the guys who the Leafs have already developed internally. Yeah, yeah, I'm with you. All right, Tyler, plug some stuff working. People follow you and what are you working on these days? Twitter at Delo Hockey, and then there's always stuff at the athletic. which everyone should subscribe to. It's not just leaps. Myrtle gives me pretty free rein

about whatever catches my eye. Nice. Well, Jimmy James Myrtle. All right, man, thanks for taking the time and we'll get you back on sometime down the road. Sounds good, thanks, bud. Cheers. The Hockey P.DoCast with Dmitri Filipovich.

Follow on Twitter at Dim Philipovich and on SoundCloud at soundcloud.com slash hockeypedocast. You know,