The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 184: The Bourne Resurrection

Episode Date: July 20, 2017

Justin Bourne provides a peek behind the curtain by discussing his role with the Toronto Marlies coaching staff (2:44), what he looks for when watching tape and which player types he's drawn to (15:4...8), the AAAA player and why certain guys can't seem to take the next step (21:00), and which AHLers look poised for a breakout year (26:42). Sponsoring today’s show is SeatGeek, which is making it easier than ever before to buy and sell sports and concert tickets. They’re giving our listeners a $20 rebate off of their first purchase. All you have to do is download the free SeatGeek app and enter the promo code PDO to get started. Every episode of the podcast is available on iTunes, Soundcloud, Google Play, and Stitcher. Make sure to subscribe to the show so that you don’t miss out on any new episodes as they’re released. All ratings and reviews are also greatly appreciated. Thanks for listening! See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Are you ready for the most ridiculous internet sports show you have ever seen? Welcome to React, home of the most outrageous and hilarious videos the web has to offer. So join me, Rocky Theos, and my co-host, Raiders Pro Bowl defensive end, Max Crosby, as we invite your favorite athletes, celebrities, influencers, entertainers in for an episode of games, laughs, and of course the funniest reactions to the wildest web clips out there. Catch React on YouTube, and that is React, R-E-A-X-X. Don't miss it. This podcast episode is brought to you by Coors Light.
Starting point is 00:00:37 These days, everything is go, go, go. It's nonstop hustle all the time. Work, friends, family, expect you to be on 24-7? Well, sometimes you just need to reach for a Coors Light because it's made to chill. Coors Light is cold-loggered, cold-filtered, and cold-packaged. It's as crisp and refreshing as the Colorado Rockies. It is literally made to chill. Coors Light is the one I choose when I need to unwind.
Starting point is 00:01:02 So when you want to hit reset, reach for the beer that's made to chill. Get Coors Light and the new look delivered straight to your door with Drizzly or Instacart. Celebrate responsibly. Coors Brewing Company, Golden Colorado. Before we get started with today's show, I wanted to tell you all about Seek, who's sponsoring today's episode of the HockeyPedioCast. If you've literally listened to any of the billion podcasts out there, you've probably already heard this exact spiel before,
Starting point is 00:01:26 but if you somehow just came to planet Earth and this is the first podcast you've ever checked out, or you just need a refresher, let me tell you about Seek and the services they provide. Just a couple clicks, they'll do all the heavy lifting for you and finding the best possible seats available. They essentially scoured internet in a matter of seconds, put together the best values where they're incredibly easy to use color-coded system of price ranges and locations, and you just go from there. I know it's pretty dry right now when it comes to live sporting events, but, you know, there's still MLS soccer and baseball on,
Starting point is 00:01:53 and it's a pretty great time to get out of the house and check out some concerts as well. The best part of it all is that if you name drop to PDOCAS when you use their services, they'll even provide you with a $20 rebate to use on future tickets. So all you got to do to make that happen is download the CKKK app, go to the Settings tab and click out a promo code, enter the promo code PDO, and CK is going to send you $20 after you made your first ticket purchase. The other thing I wanted to get to is I wanted to ask you guys for a favor. please consider taking a second to leave a review and a rating for the PTO cast on iTunes.
Starting point is 00:02:28 I know you've probably, you know, you're some combination of busy and or lazy, but it only takes a minute or two of your time, tops, I promise, and it means a great deal for both myself and the staying power of the show if you go leave us a five-star review and a glowing comment. You know, I'll take any sort of compliments, but I especially appreciate the personalized PA-parent into the type of reviews that a few of you have left, since they do show a certain baseline level of attentiveness and affection. Anyways, with that out of the way, let's listen to the music, and let's get to the good stuff. Regressing to the mean since 2015, it's the Hockey P.D.O.cast with your host, Dmitri
Starting point is 00:03:08 Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey P.D.O.cast. My name is Demetri Filipovich. And joining me is my good buddy, Justin, what's going on, man? Not a lot. This is my first podcast. in my return to the media world. So I'm pretty excited. I was going to say, is this your first public appearance other than that, I mean, I guess if a podcast even counts as a public one,
Starting point is 00:03:31 but I mean, you made that triumphant announcement that you're returning to the media game, but then you've been kind of quiet since then. Yeah, yeah. No, I've done a couple of radio hits, but nothing too much. It's the nice time for my wife that I hear. She's off on the turning to leave, and I've got a little bit of a break till I start full-time with the athletic. That's August 50.
Starting point is 00:03:50 So we've got a nice little window here. Okay, well, we'll get into the athletic and some of the work we can expect from you later, but I did want to start off talking about something else, and I often get asked by people who listen to the show why I don't have people that work in the league in some capacity, whether it's players, coaches, or executives on the podcast, and the answer is always sort of the same. I mean, you know, I have no doubt that they provide tremendous amounts of enlightening insights and entertaining anecdotes to share with the listeners,
Starting point is 00:04:18 But at the same time, I know exactly how those discussions will go because as soon as you press record and the conversations on the record, there's a ton of cliches being spouted. And no one really wants to say anything that'll rock the boat or cause controversy or burn bridges with either their future or current employers. And I totally understand why they do it. And I respect it. But at the same time, it doesn't exactly lend itself for great content. And the reason why I say that is because I think it's a, you know, I think you're the perfect person to have. on this show because you've sort of been part of both worlds now, having worked in the public blogosphere, but also now having worked with the Toronto Marley's.
Starting point is 00:04:57 So I feel like you can probably bridge that gap a little bit, and we have a nice story to satisfy both camps. Yeah, I certainly hope so. I kind of feel at times, like I had like a two-year internship behind the scenes, just had a real look at, you know, how the sausage is made for the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Marlies. And, you know, I was happy that they gave me as much. access as they did. And, you know, I was able to, you know, I had access to the least analytics website and saw
Starting point is 00:05:23 the work they did. Obviously, you can't talk too much about that. But I happy to bridge any gaps. And, yeah, so you guys in and whatever I can. Okay. So, yeah, I, you know, I obviously don't want to make you uncomfortable get you in trouble, but I imagine the listeners this show are fascinated to get a bit of a peek behind the curtain, as you just mentioned, and learn about what your job entailed.
Starting point is 00:05:41 And, you know, you were on the Toronto Marley's coaching staff as a video coach for essentially two full seasons. and I guess a good place for us to start here is just sort of, I don't know, like, how'd that work? Because I imagine there was obviously a lot of kind of combing through tape and cutting clips for future use and stuff like that. But just what was the day-to-day like and what sort of, what was your job description and beyond just the actual title itself? Right. Well, to be fair, to anyone listening, I didn't know what a video coach really did. When I was playing, you know, nine years ago or whatever it was now, that wasn't, you know, it wasn't, you know,
Starting point is 00:06:16 really a position, and now it's on every team. I'll just give you a quick walk-through on the day-to-day. In general, we would post sheets for the players. We're scouting the opponent as a team, their systems, how they play, whether that be offensive zone one face-off or lost draws or neutral zone four-check, regroups, breakouts. And my job, to the most part, was to download the most recent games that our future opponent are played, break the game down.
Starting point is 00:06:50 So as you watch the game, you hit buttons, you know, if it's a face-off, I'm hitting F, and that prompts it knows it's clipping a face-off, and then it says our player number, their player number, so on and so forth. So there's prompts probably about 300 clips a period. So I would mark the game and then go through those clips and watch all the breakouts as they're organized in a row, right? So you can just see their tendencies in how they play, doing in that sheet for the player,
Starting point is 00:07:15 so they know how our future opponent plays. During the games, we're doing the same thing live in real time, marking the period, so that's intermission, and the coaching staff comes and sits down. Everything is already sorted. They sit down, they go, okay, I want to watch our regroups from that period. The staff is sort of divides and conquered, so try to make sure we watch every facet of the period, if anyone has anything. You know, say to the rest of the guy, okay, I think they got something here.
Starting point is 00:07:42 Every time they went back to this guy, he's doing this, and then you make your adjustments in period. With technology, being as it is now for the Marleys, we could actually put together a meeting at intermission. So watch the game for five, ten minutes, whatever. I'd go over it, find something. And then with the server, that was something I had to learn how to operate. All of the work that we would do,
Starting point is 00:08:06 all our computers are connected, including ones in the dressing room and the player lounge. So we'd make a video for the players, go into the room and say, here, here's what they're doing. You know, here's where we're getting stops. Here's what we want to change. And all this happens in sort of 10, 50 minutes. And it's, it's hectic, man.
Starting point is 00:08:25 There's a lot of work involved in on practice days, you know, preparing for future opponents. And, you know, time-consuming, not mentioned, you know, doing individual player meetings, showing them, you know, for example, Colin Greening with someone who was a winger, who wanted to get better at face-off. So he would say, hey, I want to see my face off. We'd sit down. We'd watch and see why he's winning, why he's losing, and he would make adjustments from there.
Starting point is 00:08:50 So that's really just the service of the job. There's an analytical bent. There's working with the development staff. There's on the ice at practice. And it was a lot more involved than I certainly ever expected. Not to pat myself on the back, but it's a pretty integral role to a hockey team. And I kind of came in blind and feel like that by the end of my two years,
Starting point is 00:09:10 I had a pretty good grasp on it. It was just a wonderful experience overall. Well, I imagine it must also be rewarding, too, because as I've, you know, been working in hockey for the past few years now and gone to know more about the game, like, you know, there's, it's very easy to just be like, oh, you know, Sydney Crosby is very good. Okay, well, everyone knows that. But in terms of actually kind of getting some sort of practical information that we can use,
Starting point is 00:09:34 whether it's the how or the why he does it or, you know, just how the game works and breaking it down into certain segments and trying to figure it out that way. Like, that's the stuff I enjoy a lot more than purely just, you know, a ranking system of players in terms of the best guys, because we already kind of know who those guys are. Yeah, yeah, and it's unbelievable how, you know, you look at the numbers and you go to a website and say, this guy's a great coursey player or whatever, and we take our numbers and say, I found it really rewarding to be like, okay, well, Justin Hall is struggling, breaking up the talk according to the numbers.
Starting point is 00:10:07 It doesn't look like that to us. Let's go back through these games and see why the numbers and maybe. video don't add up. And sometimes you just, you know, you have such heavy biases. You remember certain plays. Obviously, recency bias is big, you know, how we played last game. But it's really good that the numbers kind of point us to what we need to watch, to what we need to fix.
Starting point is 00:10:28 And, you know, the numbers are obviously an integral part of what we do. You know, it's interesting to me. One thing I think I learned as well is just how little points tell us about, a player's game, how he's been playing. You know, I have a couple players in my head that really just the opportunity that these players are put in so greatly shapes their output. You know, putting a guy on the first power play unit, putting him with good players, playing him against bad players. You can really inflate the players' numbers. And oftentimes you're not doing them on purpose.
Starting point is 00:11:02 It's just that's where the guy fits in your lineup. And he's just, you know, he benefits from a great situation. but to me, I really found that the opportunity players get greatly drives this statistics. Well, especially for a defenseman. I feel like defensemen points are a big-time misrepresentation generally over their contributions to the team. Yeah, yeah, that's something obviously that every team is working on measuring better and figuring out how to we better quantify this guy's his input. This sucks to say on this show here, but I really did kind of.
Starting point is 00:11:37 come away with a feeling, particularly the prospects, that you've got to watch them. Like, if you don't see these guys and how they're getting, putting up the numbers they're putting up, it's really tough. And so what that led me to sort of change my thinking is that I don't really know anything about these guys. You know, when I, you're going to come on here and I talk about, you know, if we were to talk about Nikita Sherbach. Well, I saw them 10 times, you know, 12 times last year. I'm pretty comfortable, but not fully comfortable.
Starting point is 00:12:07 but the guy's on the other side of the AHL that I didn't see I can't tell you, I have no clue about those guys. Whereas before, I'd look at their stats and I'd say, yeah, he's 23, put up 50 points in 17, this guy's a good player, but I'm less confident in making those assertions now.
Starting point is 00:12:24 Yeah, well, no, I'm fascinated about, you know, it ties into the job you're doing with them in terms of breaking the game down into segments, but, you know, let's stick with a theme for defensemen and how we're looking at, you know, the breakout example you mentioned, and obviously a defenseman has numerous different responsibilities on the ice for each shift and the breakout might just be one of them and that's sort of an input to the greater overall output
Starting point is 00:12:48 for him as a player and I'm always sort of fascinated by the idea of using that sort of stuff as a little bit of an instructional tool sort of speak where you know you can you can go back to the drawing board and maybe if you improve that a little bit then the overall and overall performance is going to take a jump itself and I guess you know you have a a unique opportunity they're working with a team actually where you could sort of use that stuff as an instructional tool as opposed to just writing articles that fans might be reading but other people who can actually do something about it might not yeah and what's interesting is you know remembering that these players are people and
Starting point is 00:13:26 in uh you know so when we would find stuff like that certain players are more motivated just like certain people at your office work harder than others and some guys want to know that stuff they want to see it. Show me why I'm not breaking the puck out well. Show me why teams are entering their zone easiest against me or why I'm doing a good job at that. You know, there's so much information, and it's tough to have the time and to know what to take the players, but a lot of it is on the players. So these guys, you know, we would take the information like you're talking about
Starting point is 00:14:02 if some guy was struggling breaking the puck out. we would go to him and then the players have iPads on the bus and all the clips are broken down, all their shifts are broken down so they can take an iPad and certain players after a game will want to watch their shifts and say, okay, let's see if I did better on the breakouts today and then what can change. It's just so much video to watch and so a little time when you play 76 games. It's really tough to get through everything.
Starting point is 00:14:28 So the players have to kind of take it on themselves a little bit and watch their own stuff as well and the more motivated ones do. So something I get asked quite a bit by a more novice followers of the game who are just trying to dip their toes in and get into it is sort of how should I watch the game? And I understand that can be a bit of a tricky open-ended question to answer because, you know, thankfully everyone picks up on different stuff when they're watching and they approach it from different angles and that's what makes it interesting as a fan. But I'm kind of curious how you go about it yourself, because whether it was while you were working with the Marleys or back when you were banging out systems analyst posts on the score, you know, you obviously have a certain, certain way that you approach breaking down the tape and I'm just kind of curious is there certain things you're looking for when you're going into it you know whether it is with face offs or breakouts or you know neutral zone play or or do you just kind of sit back and just wait
Starting point is 00:15:18 for something notable to happen and then you kind of key on it and go from there um yeah no I think I would I definitely watch the game differently now than I did two years ago like as a player you know the systems you know they're supposed to stand generally but you don't really get into the why and until you try to teach something, you don't really fully understand it, right? So it's not so much that I did much teaching with it, but just in talking with the other coaches, people disagree.
Starting point is 00:15:44 You know, when people argue on Twitter over a play or whose diet was or whatever, I mean, that's happening in the Toronto Police office, and oftentimes to a heated degree. So you end up talking about the systems and what would happen if we did this and what would happen if we did that.
Starting point is 00:15:58 So generally, I'm watching structure because that's, you know, that's sort of what my job was and that I changed in that regard. So I'm wanting to see, you know, the reality is, and this is a little depressing for fans to hear, there's not much change between teams. You know, coaches have their own tweaks. You know, they'll be more aggressive or less aggressive, but there's sort of a general framework that everyone plays with them, and that's something that I hated. And I often, I think every team should get together in the summer.
Starting point is 00:16:30 You know, each coach throw three new ideas at the wall and really try to play differently than other teams. But that's not the case. Anyway, there's a general sort of framework, and I'm wanting to see if the players are playing within it. You know, I'm looking to see, you know, knowing how the least play is the winger where he's supposed to be standing when we're in the D zone. Our guys switching properly. Are they cutting off the area of the ice you're trying to? And eventually you watch it so much when it doesn't look like how it should, that part stands out to me. So I'm looking to see where guys are within the structure.
Starting point is 00:17:02 Well, having, you know, really done such a big deep dive in terms of breaking down the tape on a basically a play-by-play basis, did you know, come across any biases or certain, you know, you being drawn to certain player archetypes or skills? Because, you know, I was listening to a podcast recently with Daryl Morey and he was talking about how he's always kind of found that he's, been drawn towards bigger players for whatever reason in terms of guys that play down low and and and and and and and play in the post and i you know as an example for myself i i seem to gravitate towards defensemen that can rush the puck out themselves and make things happen with their feet even if it you know i fully acknowledge that a crisp tape to tape breakout pass might even be more effective in terms of catching another team off guard and transition but at the same time you know
Starting point is 00:17:52 when you watch a guy like brady share something i can't i just can't help but uh be infatuated with his game for whatever reason. So I'm sure everyone has those. Did you notice that you're drawn to a certain type of player like that? Yeah, yeah, definitely. I'm a lot like you actually in that regard. I really like, I don't know if he's going to be able to do it as well at the NHL level, but maybe you see Travis Dermott go back on a hockey puck.
Starting point is 00:18:16 When he goes back on a puck, he's like Mike Vic in the pocket. Like guys can't hit him. He just, he makes that first fake, that first shimmy, he's just so agile. He gets away. He shakes the first defender. To me, if he can have a defenseman that can go back on the pocket and beat that first guy, you're breaking the puck out. I mean, it's not every time, but it's certainly giving you a great chance to it.
Starting point is 00:18:38 I really enjoy that with you there. Justin Hall also skinks the puck extremely well out of his own zone. Otherwise, it's something I didn't expect that I kind of grew in affinity for is general fearlessness, guys who are just relentlessness, I guess. like Zach Hyman, when he was with the Marley, is going, like, chasing down a hockey puck on the forecheck. They have the puck in the offensive zone so often because it's just relentless and fearless.
Starting point is 00:19:06 And there's oftentimes you have guys going in on a, going after a puck who could be first to the puck, but they'll pull up and will hit the guy instead of taking the hit and, you know, getting that first touch on the puck. And it's just so valuable. The four-check dies if you pull up and make the hit and look like a hero because you hit a guy, but they get the first touch on the puck. So I love guys like that.
Starting point is 00:19:26 And when I say that, I don't just mean on the forecheck, like Zach Hyman and Andreas Yonton for us at the Marley's is incredible at this. Just he'll take the puck to the net against bigger guys. He will take the hit. Patrice Bursar on is like that too, right? He's just always after it. And it's really unbelievable. You know, I know everybody's trying hard,
Starting point is 00:19:48 but there are guys who are trying at just a different level. And I just have that ferocity to them. And I certainly grew an affinity for that. Well, I always go back to this example, but I remember, what, maybe two years ago now, before he really broke out and started playing with Sidney Crosby, I remember that, you know, there was a sport logic stat they were tracking
Starting point is 00:20:05 about how Connor Shiri was one of the best players in the league at loose puck recoveries. And it makes sense that, you know, that would be a very useful skill, but especially when you're playing with a guy like Sidney Crosby, giving him more opportunities to do something with a puck if you're able to constantly keep recovering it. And we don't necessarily, unfortunately,
Starting point is 00:20:22 know how repeatable, like it seems intuitive that, you know, a guy that does that well for a while we'll be able to keep doing that. It's a repeatable skill he has in his back pocket. But, you know, because we don't have league averages or a percentage of the time that each player is able to do that, it seems, it's like more of an eye testing at this point. But I feel like once we do get that video tracking, that's going to become something that we're going to be able to test, vet, and all of a sudden start using a lot more in terms of our analysis. And that would be amazing. And I do, I would say it's absolutely a repeatable skill. And, of course, the inverse of that or converse of that, I guess, is there are players
Starting point is 00:21:01 who are terrible at it. And so, of course, that skill itself does show up in our numbers, right? Like, we see those players drive play better. They're, of course, he's better than other players. But I'm not confident that it does a good enough job, but it shows that it really represents the value to a club of what those players. bring for you. When people
Starting point is 00:21:24 start of a punchline on Twitter and it's sort of a punchline on Twitter, at least with them, hockey Twitter, to me, hockey tough is that guy who takes the puck first. Like,
Starting point is 00:21:34 that's a tough player to me. That's, those are the guys I want on my team. So when a GM says, we want tough players. You know, it's not always, it doesn't mean you want
Starting point is 00:21:42 someone to punch someone in the face all the time. You need toughness. It's a valued skill in a game with there so much physical contact and speed. Yeah. My cat's, yeah.
Starting point is 00:21:52 My first cat's cameo. here on air. Hey, buddy, what's up? Okay, anyway, that's all I had to say. Um, so, you know, you work with Marley's, as I mentioned for two seasons, and it was obviously a great time to be a part of that organization considering the talent to pass through those two seasons. And, you know, whether it's Neeland or a Kappan, or even a guy like Connor Brown or Zach Hyman, as you mentioned, there's guys that are contributors than HL level right now. But, you know, for our purposes here, I think that rather than just saying, you know, those guys are really skilled and good at hockey, I think it's someone I'm more curious to pick your brain about is,
Starting point is 00:22:24 a guy who was on the Marley's last year, and that is Seth Griffith, because, you know, there's this concept in baseball of the 4A player of a guy that's sort of that, that in-betweener where he's a bit too good for the AHA level. He's constantly producing there, but he can never seem to stick at the highest level. And, you know, either it's him or T.J. Brennan, who I'm sure you're interacting with closely, or even a Mark Archabello, and you have all these guys around the league that, you know, The analytics community would love to see actually stick in the NHL because they've shown that they're such useful AHL players, but maybe they're lacking a certain scale,
Starting point is 00:23:01 or there's something in the way from them, stopping them from making that jump, or do you think it's just purely not having the right opportunity at the right time? No, it's not an opportunity in Seth's case anyway. Yeah, there are those players, and they're interesting cases. You know, you look at Matt Paraminahina as well, in this year, you know,
Starting point is 00:23:22 a defenseman who put up 60 points this year in a league where it's tough to come by points and he can't play in the NHL. These guys, they have major shortcomings. Like, to put up a number
Starting point is 00:23:32 Seth Griffith has put up and not be able to play in the NHL, at some point, you look at one team who said, you know, we don't think he can do it.
Starting point is 00:23:42 And then you see it happened a couple times with a few different teams, and you got to think there's something there. But Seth, there's something there. I mean,
Starting point is 00:23:49 he's extremely, talented. When we got him at first, we were playing Furtford that night, I believe. And I said to other coaches after the game, I was like, this guy's like having a cheat coat. Like when he is on and he's engaged, you
Starting point is 00:24:05 can't touch him. He's just, he's elusive and he's smart and, you know, just pucks are getting to be there constantly. But smart offensive way to clarify. But he is, when the going gets tough, when people make it hard on him, he's
Starting point is 00:24:20 just not able to be the same player. You know, you can get him to shut up, shut down. You can, he can be intimidated. You know, in playoffs, it's just, the turnover's just got so many. And I know that turnovers are not necessarily a bad stab. And, you know, he's got the puck a lot. That's great. But he just, he's high risk.
Starting point is 00:24:43 And the turnovers were just so many. I put together a package of his turnovers. at one point from the series, and it was just, he wasn't helping us. And it's unfortunate, right, because he is that talent, but he's got to be able to do it when it's hard. And that's something that he hasn't shown that he's able to do here. Guys like Brennan and Paramin, they're just, it's all defensive. It's just defensive gas. And you feel like you're giving back what he gives you at the other end.
Starting point is 00:25:13 Yeah. Well, I wonder if those guys just might have come along a bit, you know, maybe five to ten years too early, because I do wonder if the game will change to, especially at the NHL level right now, it is very conservative, and people do like to focus on defensive miscues as opposed to valuing exciting offensive plays, and maybe if that changes, those guys will become more valuable.
Starting point is 00:25:39 But, I mean, you see a guy like Nikita Nestrov, who is obviously incredibly talented, but is now went to the KHL because NHL teams just thought he was a bit too much of a defensive liability. And I think that's a shame as a fan who enjoys watching it from an entertainment perspective, but I understand the risk of riskness. Well, one thing, too, it's not necessary that it's always the defensive issues. You know, I'll talk to specifically about T.J. Brennan, who the guy has an unbelievable skill,
Starting point is 00:26:08 which we jokingly always said is, he shoots the puck in the neck. It's a hard thing to do a hit scheme. He can shoot the puck in the net. That's insanely valuable, probably criminally underrated, in fact. with him, he's a good enough skater that he can get himself the offensive opportunities at the American League level. He can get up in the rush, and he can be that second wave, and he's able to get the puck in a spot or he can use his skill to be in the net. At the NHL level, he's not fast enough to get to those spots.
Starting point is 00:26:38 It's just that one year faster where you know that he can shoot in the net, you know he makes good offensive plays, but if he can't get to those spots because the speed it just takes him out of the eligibility to be able to get those opportunities, then he's no use to you because he's still bad defensively, and now he's not going to be able to create offensively. So I would say he's just a guy who got caught speed-wise in the middle, and unfortunately he's not able to use his tools at the highest level. A great example of that is a guy like Timu Polkinen,
Starting point is 00:27:07 where you look at his H.L. totals and his goals are through the roof, and his shot metrics are through the roof. But then when he comes to the NHL level, maybe it's either the physical act of moving fast, or might just be the processing the game at that certain level that NHL's played at, but the things he was able to get away with just kind of get taken slightly away from and all of a sudden that changes his effectiveness. So it's a shame, but it is a real thing, I feel like, that you have to actually just watch the guy very closely.
Starting point is 00:27:34 And there's a number of players like that where you think, boy, he sure is good at the American League level, why can't he do it there? And if you can't skate, you can't play. That's the core of every player, every skill you want to talk about. I mean, you have to have to be exceptional at a lot of things if you're not a good skater to make the NHL. So that's a fundamental role. Got to be able to skate. Okay.
Starting point is 00:27:56 So while I have you here, I did want to do a little bit of a fun exercise where we can go through some potential breakout candidates for next season. And, you know, you having done a lot of scouting of opposing teams, so you can talk about other guys. You watched the HL level that weren't just on the Marley's. Like, is there anyone that stuck out to you where you're like, wow. maybe in 2017-18 or maybe even in the future, this guy could have a chance to be really good? Like, is there anyone that popped off the page like that to you? Yeah, I'm at the top of my head.
Starting point is 00:28:26 First off, I'm just going to say that the most obvious one is Kepernan. It would blow my mind when I would read writing about the Leafs and their prospects, and people would not include Kaffinan, even though he was on our team in the top five, or have Jeremy Bracco ahead of him. or, you know, those are good players, you know, Brack was a good player and a good prospect. But Kevin is, like we talked about skating, he is, when we played, I forget who we played,
Starting point is 00:28:54 but there was one of Brooks likes earlier games with us, and he sat behind me on the bus, and I said to him, you know, we were talking about Captain, and he said, I said, do you think he's fast, but even at the NHL level, he said he'd be one of the 10 fastest guys in the NHL today. Like, that's how fast this kid is. So he can shoot the puck, too,
Starting point is 00:29:12 and when he's engaged, which he will be, I expect him to be a contributor, not just sort of a passenger in the lease. Another kid would be Kyle Connor in Winnipeg system. I think his totals weren't mind-blowing or anything, but I think he's 20 years old. I think he had about 43 points and 50-some games, and I think a lot of that came in the second half of the year. There was a point where we were going to be playing them,
Starting point is 00:29:41 and he had scored eight goals in the previous eight games, and he became their number one threat in Manitoba. So he's another guy who stood out to me. Yeah, that's a good one. I mean, obviously on the cap and in front, you know, he showed towards the end of the season. He scored some big goals for the leaves and looked really good, so I'm pretty optimistic about him.
Starting point is 00:29:57 I mean, you mentioned that, you know, you're reading Prospects list for the Leafs. Like, I know that while you were working with the Marley's, you weren't technically, I mean, you were still on Twitter, but you weren't tweeting as you were before, but I imagine you were kind of lurking in there and checking stuff out. Like, how much are you, how much of you guys actually following along with what people are saying about the team
Starting point is 00:30:13 and churning out online while you're still working with them? Constantly. Everything you're writing is being read by everyone. No one reads what they're writing. We don't read the newspapers. I believe that the players are reading. You know, I can't get into too much with our own staff or anything, but people are reading. And I was on Twitter as much as I was before, particularly with being on the bus.
Starting point is 00:30:39 So always, always interesting. And to be honest, it's really valuable. Like, there's not a ton of time for the staff, as I said, like the next game comes in a few days, and it is not really a ton of time to go deep as much as you would like to on the stats or analysis. And, you know, you're kind of preparing for the next game and the American League level, you're working on development.
Starting point is 00:31:03 So the hockey community provides a lot for these teams, and any team that's not reading and not using the ideas and learning from the theories and the test that everyone is doing out there, I think they're falling behind. So it's not an advantage of the, I think it makes a lot of sense for staff to be reading everyone's work, and there's a lot of smart people up there. Yeah, it's like doing your homework, and I know that your former boss, Kyle Duos, is listening right now, so hi, Kyle.
Starting point is 00:31:29 Hello to Kyle. So did you get a chance to watch the Leigh Valley Phantoms at all last year? Did they come across your schedule? Yeah, we played them twice earlier in the season. So the reason why I ask is because I'm kind of curious because, you know, you look at the Philadelphia Flyers blue line for the season and even if they continue to to give Andrew McDonald regular minutes, you know, with the departure of Michael Dosato and free agency, there's a vacancy there for someone to step in from the HAL for them. And they have a number of guys they've drafted over the past few years, whether it's Robert Hag or Sam Moran or, you know, Travis Sandheim. And you go on down the list of guys that could fit that bill. Like, is there or did any of those guys stand out to you?
Starting point is 00:32:09 Or is it just going to be a kind of a wait, wait-and-see sort of thing? Yeah, I certainly wouldn't have gone in depth enough into those guys to feel confident making any claims about those guys. Obviously, we looked at their blue line going into the games and went, wow, okay, they have some real prospects here. But, you know, I didn't really get a sense of any of those guys. I was just also thinking about guys around the league that kind of stood out to me. and Christian
Starting point is 00:32:38 Juice in Washington system Defenseman there He's just a dynamite Offensive player He's a guy If you like watching defense and skate the pocket This guy is He's really dynamic
Starting point is 00:32:50 I was a big fan of his And he's just another name I wanted to throw up there Well with Schmidt and Alsner and Al There's certainly an opportunity there For someone to step up and take it And I don't know if it's going to happen Right out of the gate
Starting point is 00:33:00 But he seems like a guy That could potentially fit that bill You know what's really interesting too is the guys who you hear their names and you're like, oh my God, Utica has Jake Verkanon, we're screwed. And then you watch the games, and it's, I don't get it. You know, I don't see what the hype was or whatever. I mean, he was a guy that, I just, you know,
Starting point is 00:33:22 that the hikes sort of precede these guys and they have the names that you read about, you know they're supposed to prospects. And the American League's heart, man. It's a tough league. It really is. And I think Craig Button one said something like, point per game guys in the American League time it doesn't. Like all you need to do is go on
Starting point is 00:33:38 a HL.com and that is a HAL.com and that's just not the case. It's tough to get points in some of these guys. I mean Nikita Sherbach I didn't particularly fall in love with him I'm just trying to think of some some bigger names but yeah
Starting point is 00:33:54 it's a tough league. Well what about I imagine you saw a bit of Alex Nealander playing with Rochester like his you know I didn't personally get to scout him or anything but his point totals were certainly underwhelming, like should people be concerned about that? Or is just one of those things where the AHL is tough
Starting point is 00:34:10 and he's super young and he's going to be fine? That one really perplexes me because I did make some comments to that effect around some pretty smart people in the Maple Leafs organization, and they made, you know, I got some pushback that just first, because he is so young. And it is, it's, like I said, it's tough to get points.
Starting point is 00:34:29 But certainly he was underloaning by the eye test. I can't think of anything that I saw that made me think he was exceptional, and I can tell you, he certainly afforded the opportunity. He was playing with good linemates and playing on the power play, and I don't think he hit 30 points on the season. So just my very cursory evaluation, I think there might be a little reason to be worried about him. Yeah, I'd say so. Yeah, I haven't really given any names in terms of breakouts for myself, but I think a guy like Timo Meyer is someone I want to be watching very closely because obviously Patrick Marlow walking in free agency left a bit of a void on the wing there.
Starting point is 00:35:05 And he's shown to be a shot generation machine at pretty much every level he's played at. And he looked really good during the end of the last season at the NHL level and produced at the AHL. So he's a guy I'm pretty high on. Yeah, no, absolutely. I like him coming out of junior. He's certainly a talented player. Like you said, he should have a little bit of an opportunity there this year. You know, within the Leafs organization, there's other guys.
Starting point is 00:35:30 who could surprise. Like I said, I like Dermott a lot, but Andreas Johnson is a guy, he haven't heard his name too much. He kind of quietly put up 20 goals for us. And after a really slow start, you know, he had a really bad concussion with us in playoffs when he came over from Europe. It was a little hesitant and tentative to start the season
Starting point is 00:35:52 wasn't really creating much offensively, and by the end of the year, I mean, well, in playoffs, I think he had six or seven goals in our 10 games. He was a big part of our team. And like I said, he kills penalties. He's fearless. I'm a big fan of his. You never know.
Starting point is 00:36:05 He's a guy who can sneak through and make the voice too. Definitely not. I got to keep an eye on. Okay, before I lay you out of here, you know, James Myrtle is going to kill me if we don't talk about the athletic a little bit. So let's plug some stuff. What can people expect from you? I know you're starting up on August 15th.
Starting point is 00:36:21 Are you going to be doing more sort of systems analyst stuff? Is there going to be a backhand shelf podcast? revival, like what's going to be going on? What's your plan? And what can people look forward to? Yeah, the full on August 15th, James has been good enough to give me a good amount of freedom in terms of the content I produce.
Starting point is 00:36:43 I'll certainly be doing systems of analysts work. And, you know, Elliot Friedman, if he's willing to let me continue to go back to thoughts on thoughts and the other features that I used to do that people seem to like, I'll be incorporating those. I'll pretty much be writing you know sort of four or five times a week depending on what I'm working on
Starting point is 00:37:03 and yeah I think I don't think I'll be having my own podcast but certainly the shackle of for being involved in radio and other capacity and I am talking to people about doing something
Starting point is 00:37:18 a little bit more permanent there so that's all in the works but mostly I'll just be using what I've learned to break down the NHL and not going to be focusing just on the lease and marlies. You know, I will be looking at the NHL as a whole. Primarily there's the seven Canadian teams, though. And just using what I learned from analytics, you know,
Starting point is 00:37:39 trying to incorporate some of that, learning, you know, what I learned from systems play and how the least want to play and other teams. Yeah, just sharing what I'd learn and hopefully do a decent job of it. Well, I'm looking forward to it. And I'm sure we're going to be getting you back on this podcast as a regular guest, the season gets going, so I'm looking forward to that as well. And yeah, yeah, just keep up the good work. I'm glad to have you back in the mix.
Starting point is 00:38:03 I know that the, you know, summer hockey Twitter hasn't been the best right now. I know people are arguing a lot about just how good Oscar Cliffbom is, which is a very niche subject that might not be the most welcoming to the casual fan, but it'll get better. It'll get better as we get into the fall. So it's good to have you back, Justin, and we'll chat soon. Yeah, thanks for having me. with Dmitri Filipovich. Follow on Twitter at Dim Philipovich
Starting point is 00:38:30 and on SoundCloud at SoundCloud.com slash HockeyPedioCast.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.