The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 195: Predictions and Projections

Episode Date: October 4, 2017

Dom Luszczyszyn joins the show to help preview the upcoming season by using his projection model to outline what we can expect the league standings to look like by year's end.  5:08 The Metropolitan Divison 22:22 The Atlantic Division 38:01 The Pacific Division 51:54 The Central Division Sponsoring today’s show is SeatGeek, which is making it easier than ever before to buy and sell sports and concert tickets. They’re giving our listeners a $20 rebate off of their first purchase. All you have to do is download the free SeatGeek app and enter the promo code PDO to get started. Every episode of the podcast is available on iTunes, Soundcloud, Google Play, and Stitcher. Make sure to subscribe to the show so that you don’t miss out on any new episodes as they’re released. All ratings and reviews are also greatly appreciated. Thanks for listening! See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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Regressing to the mean since 2015, it's the hockey PDO cast. with your host, Dmitri Filipovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEOCast. My name is Dimitri Filipovich. And joining me is my good buddy, Dom, loose Chishin. Dom, what's going on, man? Not much, man.

I'm just really excited for hockey to finally start. Yeah, yeah. You know what? Summer's my favorite season. So generally, I don't really kind of miss it too much, and I enjoy the nice weather and hanging out outside and all that. But this summer in particular, it felt like I really missed the void, and I'm ready for it to,

I'm ready for it to kick off, and it's starting tonight. We're recording this Wednesday morning, the morning of the first day of the NHL season. So it's like Christmas morning for us. It really does feel like that. So this is the drill. We're going to go around the league and we're going to do, you know, we're going to do projections. We're going to do, I guess, it's like a league-wide preview. We're going to pick how we think the standings are going to shake out.

And, you know, I don't think your picks are going to be a surprise. to anyone since you've been basically going team by team for the past month plus on the athletic. And so your work is already out there. I know I've been sort of mulling mine over and I've been following your work and, you know, the projection models of guys like Micah McCurdy and so on and so forth. And so I'm excited to kind of put that all together and see what we come up with. Yeah, definitely. And I put those out and I just want to remind people that that's not necessarily what I 100% believe.

I have my own disagreements with my own model. I know people think that because I made it and I put it out that this is 100% what's going to happen. But I agree with it a lot. It's just that I have my own opinions as well. Right. So do you want to go over quickly like the methodology for the model you use for those projections? Yeah, sure. So it's based on a stats I stole from basketball called Game Score,

which basically just puts all these box score stats into a blender and weights every all of them appropriately. And then I look at the last three years for each player and I wait that by recency. I adjust for age. And then I get a player rating for every player in the league. Put them all together for each team. And then that spits out a team rating and that gets me a measure of how good each team is. right and so the one um you know you mentioned it a bit earlier there sort of how you might have your

own personal disagreements or whatever you have ultimate veto in your decisions uh you know if you're going to disagree with something the model spits out and i think most of that probably comes into play when maybe it can't sort of realize why a player might have had a down season or a team at a down season right so like you know i think a good example might be someone like um you know if a corey schneider or a henrik lunkwist last year has an abnormally bad season for their standards. The model's not really going to include the human element that probably, you know, suggests, well, those guys have the track record that makes us believe they're going to bounce back to form. It sort of just takes last year for what it was.

Yeah, it's definitely a big, bigger thing with goalies. You want to, I use three years to combat that so that if a guy has like an abnormally great year and you maybe expect him to drop down a bit, it has the other two years to bring him to that level. I noticed that for goalies is a little different because Corey Schneider, he grades out as average, but last year was like his first below average year and then every other year he's like a 920 goalie. So maybe you expect him to get back to that 920 range instead of where I have him, which is around 917, because last year puts some uncertainty on whether he's still back type of goalie. Right. And I think you and I probably both believe that he is more so the goalie he was in the past than the one he showed to be last year,

right yeah yeah definitely okay so i mean i guess that's a good segue let's let's start with the the metro division um i i in my personal opinion i think it's the best one especially up top and uh i think we're going to have no disagreement here that the devils should be rounding out the rear in this division i mean it's weird because i'm actually generally much more optimistic on them um just in terms of where they're headed than maybe where they've been in the past because of all the you know young talent they've accumulated and they bring in a guy like nico his shoe and they get Marcus Johansson for cheap this summer. And so there's pieces there, but when you compare them to what's going on to the rest of the division,

it's tough to make the argument that there's anyone that's worse off just purely for 2017-18 than they are. Yeah, they definitely made some great moves, and they have a lot more than they used to have. And they obviously have Taylor Hall and Corey Schneider. I'm just obvious, I'm a little worried about their defense, which looks to be, frankly, like, the worst in the league, probably. their best defenseman is Damon Severson and the other five guys are five guys who are definitely hockey players

Yeah, well I assume that that's A big reason why a guy like Will Butcher Chose them over the other teams he had Buying for his For his rights because he looked at what was going on there On that blue line in New Jersey He's like well, there's a very good chance That I could be the second best defenseman

This season on this team and get a load of ice time So why not give it a shot? Yeah, definitely Okay, so yeah I don't think there's much more to say about having the Devils last there. Who do we, what do we, what do we thinking after that? Um, I think it might still be Philly, but the thing is that the next five teams are probably going to be fighting for a playoff spot.

And me saying Philly in seventh probably underserved how good. I still think they're going to be like just slightly below average, like around 90 points. But like they should still be good, just not as. as good as the rest of division, that speaks how good the division is. Right, because you had pretty much Philly to the Blue Jackets here, which would be third to seven of the Metro, between 91 and 95 points, which, you know, it seems very tight, and that's because it is.

It's going to be a couple games here or there that are ultimately going to decide missing the playoffs and making it for that division. Yeah, the Flyers, it's tough because it felt like everything that could have gone wrong last year for them did. You know, the goaltending was uncharacteristically bad. And I think that it's a shame that Steve Mason had to depart as a result, but Brian Elliott could be very serviceable there, especially for what they're paying them,

and Michael Neuberth could bounce back. And I don't know, like, what do you make of everything that's going on up front with that team? Because it seems like they've had such bizarre discrepancies between their production at 515 versus the power play. I mean, last year in particular, but even dating two years before that. I think they're going to be a really interesting team, especially because they have these guys at the top who have this reputation as being very good offensive players.

In the last couple of years, they haven't been that. Claude Jureau has been terrible at 5-1-5 the last year or so. And, I mean, there was obviously those injury excuses, but if he's going to keep playing like that, then I don't think Philly has a chance to make the playoffs. He needs to be back to the Clod Juree. he was three or four years ago. Yeah, but the problem is, at this point, like, other than the fact that he's a big name, he hasn't really shown us much reason to believe that that is coming.

I mean, I guess moving him off center to the wing might help with, you know, it looks like they're going to be playing him with Caturier, so maybe that'll help in terms of having the puck more off in a five-on-five, but I don't know, it seems pretty bleak in that regard, just based on the trajectory he's been going on and sort of, you know, the miles and the age he's accumulating. It's not like he's necessarily in his first couple years anymore either. Yeah, definitely. And getting Nolan Patrick second overall definitely helps with that transition because then you can have Couturee on the top line.

That could be really good for Couturea as well, who has never hit 50 points, but might do just that playing besides Drew and Borchek. Yeah. Yeah, this could be Cotrera's big year. Okay, so I have the flyers at 7th as well. And then I have the Islanders next. And I noticed that you had the Islanders ahead of the Rangers in terms of your New York teams. Yeah.

What was the reasoning for that for your model, you think? I think the biggest reason for that is that the Islanders have John Chavez and the Rangers do not. Yes. And I think those star players matter a lot. and I just I think they have some good young players Josh Hossang I was gonna say Anders Lee

but like I found out this summer that he's like 20 or 80s so old he's like young Joe Pavelsky he's basically the new young Joe Havowski young Tyler Bozak he's not young at all but they have Matt Barzell who looked really good in the preseason

and I just don't see the same like the Rangers have forward talent but they're kind of like they're all pretty good but not like game breaking good um they have their first round pick from last year as their second line center this year and i'm not sure i mean i'm not a prospect guy so i have no idea who this guy is but it feels like not a great thing after trading derrick stepan um their d looks much better this year though i will say that yeah i would be much more optimistic about the rangers if i had faith that uh... elaine vinyo

would properly utilize that blue line. And that means playing Mark Stahl like 15 minutes a night as opposed to closer to 20, which I feel like he might once again. But like that top four they have there with McDonough, Shattonk, Shay, and Brendan Smith is pretty legit, I think. And if they actually use that as their top four and give those guys the bulk of the minutes,

I'm decently optimistic on the Rangers. I think Lunkwist, there are some age-related concerns, but I think he'll be better than he was last year, even if he doesn't necessarily go back to what he was during his peak. And the forwards are good enough. I mean, yeah, that was a weird backwards move for a team that considers itself a contender to trade Derek Stepan for draft picks. But at the same time, there's enough sort of, like they don't have that star, but I think they have that capability, especially with the speed they play at and the counterattack game they play to just come at you in waves. and I think that that group might make up for the fact that there isn't one individual guy to take over.

Yeah, and I think that the Rangers, the way they play, they're like the one team that makes it hard for, and it's definitely harder for my model because I feel like they were routinely, it was routinely wrong about the Rangers last year, and they're just, they're a hard team to measure because they're the one team that, I guess, plays that true counterattack style that makes it difficult to use our current advanced stats. Right. Yeah, they definitely, especially early on in the year, like, I know they're like scoring chance totals and their goal scored were significantly superseding their actual shot metrics. And that came down to earth a little bit. But at the same time, like for years now, it seems like they've done better than we'd expect just probably because of that, because they do take advantage of that speed and that counterattack. And that's something we can't really account for yet other than anecdotally watching it and sort of just factoring it in. into our expectations for them. Yeah, definitely.

Yeah, I mean, I haven't really said much on the Islanders yet. I think I like their team. They have a bunch of those young guys, as you mentioned. I mean, you didn't even mention a guy like Anthony Bowie, for example, that could step up. And if it all comes together for them, I think they could have a really nice bounce back season. But I just, I feel more confident in my projection for the Rangers right now.

So I think it's definitely within a couple points as your model outlined. I just have them flip-flop, basically. Here's the thing about the Islanders, and we'll get to the Oilers later, but the Islanders added Jordan Eberley and people are really down them. The Oilers traded Jordan Eberley and people have them winning their conference. I don't know where that disconnect happens. I feel like that was like an obvious win for the Islanders, and I know they got rid of, they traded Travis Hammannick, but they have a lot of good young defensemen who can step up. So I feel like that won't be as big a drop as people expect,

especially since Hamnick was so bad last year. And the Anders only missed the playoffs by, I think, like, one point. And as soon as Doug Wade came in, they were a much better team as well. So I feel like people are really underrating what this team can do. And I think the Tavares-Ebblery combo, plus their young guys will, I think they'll have a good season this year. Yeah, I think you'd probably have to go to a pretty niche,

Vegas bookmaker to make this type of bet, but I would be all over the over for Jordan Eberley goals this season. Yeah. Yeah, he, like his shot rates actually rose to a career high, I believe, last year, and his shooting percentage was cut in half. So it seems like somewhere back in the 25 to 30 goal range, especially playing with Tavares, seems very plausible for him. Yeah. Um, so now we get into the top three here for the Metro and, I think we're still in the top four. If we have not talked about it. Oh, we have. I've not talked about the hurricanes, yes, yes. So I actually have the hurricanes sandwiched between the Rangers and the Islanders.

So listen, the argument for the hurricanes is pretty clear. They've been a team. We've all had our eyes on for a few years here. They've been great at 5-1-5. Their penalty kill last year was, I believe, like, historically great. And, you know, we like the front office they have there. The coaching staff, we believe they're going to do all the right things. and this summer they also bring in what could very well be a legitimate goalie for the first time under Bill Peters.

So all of a sudden, if you put that all together, this seems like this is the year of their most prime to actually take that leap. Yeah, I definitely think so. I mean, last year, people were saying the same thing, and I remember my model was like, no, they're still bad. And they were better than my model said, just not as good as what other people were expecting, which was a playoff team. and I think this is the year where that changes. They added Justin Williams, it gives them some better forward depth. They got rid of Jay McCleman

and now it's Marcus Kerruder there. That's a huge thing for their fourth line. And obviously, the Scott Darling factor because it means much less Cam Ward. Yes, which is huge. What does your model think of Scott Darling and the fact that his track record is so minimal? Well, I regress.

based on sample size. So a guy like Scott Darling or anti-Ranta, they get pushed down much lower or much more than a goalie that has played 60 games the past three years. Right. But it still likes both of them a fair amount to be pretty above-average goalies. I think it'll be interesting to see

because I remember a lot of people were high on Eddie Lack as well a couple years ago and then he went to Carolina and imploded. So there might be a system thing we are not seeing and we can't measure at the moment, but I feel like Darling will be different. I'm not like 100% confident, but he feels like a good bet to make. Yeah, yeah. And obviously, if he gives them even like league average goaltending,

that's going to be such an improvement from what they've had in the past that really could put them over the top. Yeah, definitely. Yeah, I think that's fair. I think I might not have had them high enough, honestly. Like I had them sandwich there between the Rangers and Islers, but you could talk me into having them force. in this division. I mean, is there any argument to be made that they could even leap into that

top three ahead of the blue jackets? There's definitely a blue jacket. I do like the blue jackets, I think, a lot more than, I don't know about a lot more, because I know a lot of people still last year, they couldn't believe that the blue jackets were doing this good because they were on that PDO bender, but I mean, there was a time where they were also, like, outchancing their opponents, and then they kind of lulled a bit. But I like the addition of Panoran. He gives the team a different element. Oliver Bjork Strand, who I adore, is going to get much more minutes this year, and they still love Zach Harenzky and Seth Jones back there, Surrey Bobrovsky. I do like this team. I know there's a chance that they fall back, and Carolina could take them

over, but I still think they're probably one of the better teams in this division. Yeah. I mean, yeah, so the thing with the Blue Jackets is there aren't very many, uh, on this roster and they also have you know young guys who could potentially take another step as well so it's not like you know last year they were just composed of a bunch of old guys who really hit their ceiling and it was their one last chance to to do something like it seems like the star is still on the rise so while you don't you got to account for the fact that there might have been some some good fortunes for them last year and that might not continue I think there's a lot to like here with the blue jackets yeah definitely okay so the top I mean so here in the top two. And I mean, I really can't see any argument for not having the capitals and the penguins, not only atop the metro, but atop the Eastern Conference as a whole. And I think they're still close enough that you could really alternate between the two. Like, it looks like, I guess the capitals, just because of how much they lost this summer, you'd have to downgrade them enough to leapfrog the penguins over them in the standings here. Yeah, definitely. And I know a lot of

people, like we think they're one and two. I know some people who saw how much they've lost and think immediately, okay, well, maybe we'll see the Rangers blue jackets or hurricanes there if you're that optimistic, but I don't think people, there are people who aren't as high on the capitals, I mean, their core is still intact. They had, they have some very good young players who can step up. They still have one of the best goalies in the league. They should be fine. Their depth obviously took a hit and they lost some key players, but there's enough there that they were already at a high place that losing that much doesn't hurt them as much as another team if they lost that kind of talent. Right. And with the Penguins, I mean, so they lost,

you know, most notably Nick Benino and Matt Cullen and that definitely hurts them in their depth down the middle. But at the same time, you know, I think on the surface that, especially the Benino loss, seems like a huge one because of everything he did for them particularly, you know, in the spotlight in the playoffs. But last year that, you know, his performance had really dipped. And the fact that that Kessel, Hagelin, Bonino trio that had gotten so much attention the year prior fell off so much was a big reason for why the Penguins 5-on-5 numbers is a whole dip from where they were the year prior.

Yeah. And I'm a little worried about Nashville taking a big bet on Nick Benino to be their second-line center because he barely cut it last year as a third-line center. and he had a guy like Phil Kessel beside him. At the same time, you're probably wondering whether that might be Phil Kessel's game falling off a bit because even like he had some of his worst possession numbers in years and it wasn't just defense. He wasn't generating as much offense as usual either.

Yeah, that's true. I mean, I look at that Penguin's depth chart and the, you know, the third and fourth lines worry me a little bit. But, I mean, this team won the cup last year without Chris Lantang. So, you know, it seems like barring some sort of a long-term injury or either Crosby or Malkin, it's going to be hard to derail this team. Yeah, definitely. So let's wrap it up with the Metro Division here. So how many of these teams, do you think both of the wildcard spots will be taken by Metro teams, or do you think it'll be an even split?

I am one of the few people who think the Atlantic Division doesn't suck. so I think it'll be an even split but it's going to be really close between Carolina the both New York teams maybe Philly as well and then on the other side Boston Toronto Florida I maybe not Florida I still have Florida high but I mean they've done so many weird things that it's hard to like them as much as I this model likes them because they got I mean they still have their top young players but the rest of the team just looks not as good as it could have been because some general

managers like to make their team worse as a hobby. Yeah, that's definitely one way to put it. Yeah, so okay, so let's transition to the Atlantic then here because, and you know what, we both have the Red Wings in last place here, and we're already at the 20-minute mark here, so I think that's everything we need to say about the Red Wings at this point. There's nothing new we can add here. They're not going to be very good. There's no hope in the near future.

And I guess enjoy the, if you're a Red Wings fan, you can enjoy all the memories you've had over the past 25 years. So I think that's going to be our first big discrepancy here so far. I have the Panthers next. And while I'm acknowledging that, you know, I think the gap between them and the senators and the sabres is pretty small and they could very easily be at the top of that tier. I'm really down on the summer they had.

I mean, even if you account for the fact that Fgetti Datenov could be very good in his return to NHL and Redeem Verbatta could be a very useful depth player for them, the fact that they basically lost Jonathan Marshall, So Riley Smith, Jason Demers, and Yarmoryager for reasons unbeknownst to us. Well, I guess they are. They were basically cutting money and trying to

you know, get rid of all the work they did in this in the summer prior. It's tough. I have to downgrade them for that. And while they could have better injury luck and, you know, things could normalize for them, it was enough for me to bump them down to the bottom of that tier. I had them when I did my previews as a team that could surprise because they still had some talent. And I do think Datenov and Verbata could be adequate replacements for at least two of the players they lost. But after that, Jason DeMers trade, they dropped a lot more.

And they're now basically in the Ottawa Buffalo tier. And I think you can interchange the three of those teams, and it wouldn't really matter. So I can see Florida being seventh now more than I could maybe three weeks ago. Right. The other thing is, I like their blue line. They have, from one to six, I thought they had one of the better blue lines in the league. the only issue is they were a team that lacked that top and defensemen. They obviously want Aaron Eklad to be that. He's not that yet.

They wanted Keithy Handel to maybe show that because they paid him so much money, and he's probably not that either. So last year they had a pretty even split for how they divvied up the tougher minutes, and I don't think it really worked out for them, And I wonder if that is, that's something that a model would not be able to see because it's a, all the D are good, but none of them are great. So add up all their value, they seem fine. But they might be more vulnerable than a team that has a Drew Dowdy, Hamas, Linholm, Eric Carlson, those kind of teams that have that top end player. Well, I mean, how vulnerable is a team that has Eric Carlson when Eric Carlson's not even the lineup to start the season?

That's very true. that defense looks so, so bad without him. And they not, for some reason, they're not even playing their, they sent their best defensive prospect who could maybe even closely near his game at like 10%. It might be a good fit for this blue line without him, but they want to play Mark Borovyecki instead. Yeah, it's pretty bleak. it's it like for for people like you and i right now it's we're in a tough position here with

the senators because we were talking them down all of last year and they obviously proved us very wrong or i guess you know they they performed well um even even as we kept expecting them to redress and um so now obviously everything we say is going to kind of the but the the common retort is going to be well we'll look at last year so i guess there's nothing really that new to add other than the fact that we're both pretty down on them and we expect them to be in this bottom tier as opposed to challenging for the Atlantic Division title. And like a team with Eric Carlson

is not as surprising if they finish higher than expected. I remember last year a lot of people were calling the Sends a bottom five team and I think I had them as pretty much exactly where they are now, just like a playoff bubble team a bit lower than the rest of the actual contenders. And then they actually started playing games. They didn't look really good in them. And then they started dropping, even though the actual team looked good in the standings. And I don't think they can repeat the magic this year, especially if they start the season without Eric Carlson.

But, I mean, this team has proved a lot of us wrong before. So maybe we shouldn't doubt him. Yeah. And, I mean, I think if they do surprise us or exceed our expectations, a lot of it's going to be Craig Anderson. probably the most underrated player in the league. At this point, I saw Craig Custins did his annual goalie tiers where he talks to people around the league and ranks the top 30 goalies.

And they had Craig Anderson 18th, which is another great reminder that Craig Anderson, that goes underappreciated. And listen, if he's going to stand on his head and have a 920 to 925, say, percentage, then all of a sudden that could definitely boost their performance up a little bit at 5-1-5. Yeah, definitely.

I have him as one of the high, rated goalies here so that's what pushes Ottawa up I did see a good tweet this morning as I was scrolling through my feed where someone said they don't understand why people are so optimistic about Anderson at 36 but not about Luongo at 35 and that kind of made me laugh because my model said like the exact same thing like Lungfist not good anymore Anderson still incredible I'm like well this felt like a sub tweet but I agree with it yes So I think you could split the Atlantic Division here into two tiers basically. Well, I guess the Red Wings are in their own tiers.

Yeah, the Red Wings are their own tier. Yes. Then we have the Senator Sabres, Panthers, in some order. And then I think you have this top four. And they're going to be pretty tightly bunched together. Now, I should preface, like, when I put together my, you know, standings predictions, and this will come up in the Central Division where I had the Predators up top as well.

I more so did it in terms of who I think are the best teams and then I did it in that order as opposed to who I think will finish with the most points because especially, you know, the league is going to be so tight and a few games here or there is going to flip-flop with teams a couple spots and, you know, with injuries and luck and so on and so forth, things could change in that regard. But I just decided to go with pure, you know, my confidence in the talent on the team. And that's why I had the lightning atop this division.

Yeah. Do you think that's a reasonable stance to take, or do you think someone else should be atop there? I think that if anyone said that they see Montreal, Tampa, Boston, or Toronto at the top of the division, I'd say, okay, that is an agreeable take. If they said Florida, Ottawa, Buffalo, I would say, I'm not so sure about that, but good luck. And if they said Detroit, I would laugh in their face. That's how I see this division. I do think the Lightning are definitely a team that could be at the top. I think I have them second now because Mikhail Sergachev is on the team,

and it looks like they have Dan Girardi on the third pair, and I was a little worried he might be on the second pair, so I bumped his minutes down, and that alone bumped them right back up to number two over Boston, who are dealing with an injury to arguably their best defenseman in Tori Krug. a lot of people see the leaps above around number two behind Tampa I'm a little less sure about that because I don't really like

I still don't like their bottom defensemen and I'm not sold on their fourth line they obviously have the forward depth but I want to see it first to before I believe it you know what I mean? Yep Yeah no 100% I don't know like are we are we slightly underrating

the impact that potentially having Stephen Stamco's healthy for the full season would have. Because it seems like, I don't know, it's weird because people talk about it, but just based on the name he is and the production he's had, and as good as he really looked last year playing with Namesekov and Kucherov before he got injured, like, it seems like people aren't giving that enough attention because you basically just plucked that type of producer off of their lineup, like 20 games into the season. And that would be devastating for any team. So it seems like, you know, it's risky to project that he will play the full season for them. But if he does, maybe we're underrating how big of an impact that could be. I definitely agree. Stamco's has, I don't want to say, never looked better, but he hasn't

looked that good in a really long time. The past few years, you saw that he became sort of a empty calorie score where he was putting up points, but he wasn't driving play. And last year, when he was put with Kuturov. They were crazy together. So I do think we might be under any how good stamp posts can be this year. But at the same time, the Lightning had a lot of guys

that stepped up and played big minutes last year, and I'm not as sure if they can be as effective without that quality of teammate boost. Guys like Braden Pointy, any Gord, looked really good last year, but can they be as effective this year without playing with those top tier guys

at the top of Tampa's lineup. Right. Yeah, that's fair. There's definitely sort of an opportunity cost there. So, yeah, so I had the lightning first here, and then I had the Canadians, Bruins, Leifes in that order, but I basically could have just picked the three names out of a hat because it was that tight for me.

Yeah. Do you think a lot of people are underrating the Bruins? Because I feel like that is the case currently. Yes. No. Like, I have legitimate question marks about the team, so it's not, like, I understand the, um, the analytical argument for them that, like, they were much better last year than they got credit for because of just bad misfortune. And if we expect that to regress back to, you know, norms, um, they'll have a massive boost in, in production. But at the same time, like, there are flaws around this lineup and they are, there are a couple unknowns as well, especially up for, run now where they're asking young players who we haven't seen yet at this level to step right in and produce and I'm always a bit wary of just naturally expecting that those guys are going to hit the highest of our expectations uh definitely uh but i see people who i feel like there's a clear

top four yeah where i wouldn't be mad if they ruins were anywhere in there i see people who have them fifth sixth outside the playoffs and i just feel like they're a solid playoff team and If they weren't missing Tori Crew during last year's playoffs, I think the narrative around them would have changed because they probably would have won that series. They might have beat the Rangers and gone to round three, and people probably wouldn't be putting them out of the playoffs. And that's just, I think it's just interesting

how one playoff series can change perception of a team because they're one of the favorites to win the cup last year. If you looked at their betting lines, they didn't start that way, but a lot of people bet them up, and then they sort of disappointed in losing to Ottawa. I do see the flaws in this team. They're a very top-heavy team,

but they're splitting up their big three, so I feel like that could work in their favor and bring, I think David Craachia could have a better year if he plays with, a guy like David Pasternak. They have Charlie McAvoy, who looks to be the real deal. And I think there's enough here that they're in that top four and they could win the division if they wanted to or make the playoffs.

I think it's the people who say they're not a playoff team where I hesitate and say, what don't you like about this team? Yeah, I think having them six in this division is crazy town. I think there's enough concerns to bump them down to like third or fourth. But yeah, beyond that, I wouldn't go past that. I mean, yeah, it's funny. You mentioned that series against the senators and how, I mean, they lost a bunch of other defensemen in that series as well and David Grachie.

But, I mean, I feel like our lives would be a lot simpler. right now if they had just won that series. They would. My model actually told me to bet on the senators, and I did not do that because I'm like, that's not happening. And it happened. Yeah, you've got to listen to the numbers, man.

They won't lie to you. The Canadian, so I had the Canadian second in his division, and I believe you had them first on your model date, at least. Yes. I guess a lot of that is probably you know, Kerry Price and the top of the roster, because

I mean, we've talked about, you know, some of the blue line concerns. And, man, there's a lot to be kind of tugging at your collar out about if you're looking at this Canadian's blue line. Yeah, for sure. I like their forwards a lot. I obviously love Kerry Price. Shea Weber is a very good defender, so is Jeff Petrie. And then after that, it's very sketchy. And they feel like a really weird team where they don't, it doesn't.

It doesn't look like they are a team that would have great chemistry because of the way they're built. So I do wonder if a model would overrate their absolute value while not taking into a fact whether that value would mesh well with the players they're playing with. Right. And the narrative this preseason has been interesting because it seems like a lot of Canadians fans have a lot of their hopes invested in this 19-year-old. fourth round defenseman from a few years ago, which is not a great spot to be in if you're rounding out your team. But I guess he could come in and surprise as well. He could. Actually, that was really funny because a lot of people went out because I was doing the previews in order and a lot of people are like, oh, where's this team? Where's this team?

Near the end, a lot of Habs fans started getting my mentions like, how have you not done our team yet? and it seemed like they're the lowest on their own team. It seemed really weird, and the comments for that one were interesting, because there were some people who saw the optimism and others who were like, yeah, I don't think our team's going to be that good this year. And when I did my, I did a fan power rankings, and Montreal came like below average with Boston. So that's where I get the sense that neither team is very well liked.

I think Ottawa came ahead of Boston. Maybe I'm not sure. But that's where I get the narrative sense that these two teams should be liked a bit more than they actually are. Right. Yeah, I like that. Do you think we've done enough here on the east? Should we move over to the west? Yep.

Okay. Since you're the guest, I'll let you pick. Do you want to do the Central first or the Pacific? We'll save the Central for last because that's the... Toughest one. Toughest one now. Okay. Pacific. So it makes us pretty easy at the bottom here.

I had the Golden Knights last and then the Canucks, but I mean, both of those are pretty clearly in a world of hurt of their own. Yeah. The Coyotes are next for me, which isn't surprising necessarily, but I guess there's a lot of, there's a big window here between, you know, the Canucks and the Golden Knights and whoever you'd have after the Coyotes, I think. And the interesting thing with Arizona, how high on them

how high you are on them based on whether you think they'll be closer to that Canucks Golden Knights tier or whether they'll be closer to that, you know, kings and then whoever else you have in the Pacific.

I definitely think they're closer to the playoff teams that they are to the bottom feeders based on what they did this off season. They completely revamped their blue line and now from one to six like it looks pretty damn good.

They have Ekman Larsen Gologoski, Jalmers, as a solid top four. They have Shikran. When he comes back from injury, probably playing on their bottom pair. That's a lot better than what they had last year. And I think that could really help their forwards who look bad, but I think a lot of that is they didn't have the puck on their stick as much.

And they do have some really intriguing young forwards who I think can make a jump, like Clayton Keller, Dylan Ström, obviously, Brenn Perlini, Christian Dvorak, Christian Fisher, Anthony Duklear. All these players are like 22 and under. Max Domi as well. They added Derek Step on. There's a lot of question marks with the fours, but I think we could see a big rise as they grow together.

And I think Arizona, they don't look incredible now, but if everything goes right, I don't think it should be as surprising as it will be when, if that does end up happening. Yes. And I think, you know, I think they're going to be at least, at the very least, very fun to watch. With all that young forward talent up front. So, yeah, you know, it was pretty clear that they wanted to get some semblance of, like, respectability in this franchise.

And I think they've definitely accomplished that this summer. So now it's just a matter of how far that takes them. But I'm pretty optimistic on them. So who do you have after the coyotes? I have the Kings. I'm not I do think they're going to bounce back but

they're doing some weird things with their lineup right now they have three guys like I've never heard of playing I don't even remember their names I wrote them down for my post they'll come later today but

I obviously love the top end guys it's just their depth looks weak enough that I don't like I can see them competing for a spot by thinking they're the obvious fifth candidate. Wait, so you're not high on Alex Iiafalo and Johnny Brozinski? Those are definitely, actually, I can't even say definitely. I'm not sure they're hockey players. I'm not sure about it because I know a lot of players and I don't know. Actually,

I think I've heard of Johnny Britsinsky before because he played a game or two last year. And I remember looking at the lineups and like, who the hell is this guy? And then I look again this year, I'm like, oh, he's back. But the other two guys, they have, I think another guy on the defense, Oscar fans, something. I don't know. Fentenberg? Yep. That's a player.

Yeah. Yeah, that third pairing of Oscar Fantinberg and Christian Fowlin is deadly. Here's the thing with the Kings. I think what differentiates them from a team like the Bruins who we talked about just a few minutes ago. Is that like with the Bruins, that felt like much more of a,

you know, half year or three-quarter year or pretty much like whenever Bruce Cassidy took over, seem like their fortunes kind of swung back in the right direction a little bit with the kings this has been going on for a few years now so i'm i'm wary of just saying oh well you know they're going to start converting much more of their opportunities into gold because it's not like this was just a one-year thing and they didn't really do much this summer beyond adding mike camelary to give you a reason to believe that things would be markedly different that's where you're wrong my friend they audit an offensive coordinator which i think is probably the first in

The NHL, I'm not actually sure, but they have someone with the title offensive coordinator, and you know what? Maybe it works. And if it does, we might see a lot of other offensive coordinators in the future. Yeah, I mean, that offense has been very uncoordinated in years past, so I think that can't hurt. We'll see if this offense can be coordinated. So, so the, let's talk about the two Alberta teams here. Because I know you're probably much more, would you say that the Oilers are

the team that your model or even yourself are more down on than the, like the most down on compared to the general public compared to anyone else in the league? Definitely. And this is one team where I would disagree with the model.

Like I don't have them as a contender yet where people are like, this is the top two or three team in the West. I did an adjustment where it just looks at their last season and that brings them up to 96 points which would have them as the ninth best team in the league and I think that's a bit more fair for them yeah I think and would have them at the top of their division but I don't see the

bonafide hundred point team yet they obviously have Connor McDavid Leon Dreisital Cam Talbot Oster Clef Palm but after that I'm just not as big a fan on the rest of the lineup especially the defense without Andre Seckeret to start I mean Adam Larson, Matt Bending, Darnel Nurse, Eric Gryba, Chris Russell. I feel like you should just, you should be able to say those five names

for five minutes straight, and then eventually people will be like, okay, never mind, I'm not as optimistic about this team as I once was. Yes. And the other things you haven't mentioned yet are Cam Talbot started 73 games for them last year, and relying on that type of workload with that type of performance

seems unwise, I'd say. And the other thing is they were, I believe, like, abnormally healthy last year. None of their guys really missed any games. And if that changes, which generally happens in the league, because that's not like a real skill, sometimes it just goes from year to year, all of a sudden, you know,

things could look a bit more bleak for them. So I think there's a reason, obviously, to be optimistic because whenever you have Carter McDiard David, he's going to make everything better. But, like, the margin here is so thin between them and a team like the flames that I think it's okay to potentially put the flames over them just because they have fewer of those concerns. Actually, I do have the flames over everyone in this division now after the Yarmri Yager signing.

That's huge. That is, I think it's a big pickup. It obviously, like, these are age-adjusted, and I had to, I think, model. identify the age curve as Yager keeps playing and I'm like can you just like calm down just readjusting your boundaries it's really testing the boundaries and even when you adjust for the fact that he's 97 years old he still grades out as a second line caliber player and the flames top nine like looks really good now with his addition they obviously have the 3M line they have quadro and monahan they have sam bennett who might actually look good this year

with some NHL caliber line mates beside him and they have probably one of the best top fours in the league with Giordano, Hamilton, Brody, Hamannick. And the bottom line and bottom pair don't look exceptionally great, but I think their top talent should be able to carry them despite what is probably also questionable goaltending as well.

That's the big thing with the flames is I'm not sold on Mike Smith. Which is so disappointing because this summer they had so many directions they could have gone in. It seems like they went in like the least, just like the worst one almost. Like it seems like, I mean, Mike Smith could be fine, but it's like they had so many other things they could have done. And they're like, yeah, we'll just do this one because our GM used to work with him in Arizona. So they're familiar with each other. It's like that should not be a valid argument.

It shouldn't. Mike Smith could be an interesting case study on goaltending analytics though, because I know A lot of people say he's not that bad. He was just playing in Arizona system. Right. And then Calgary has all these great defensemen, so it'll be interesting to see how he performs. Maybe he does surprise.

I'm just less optimistic about it. Yeah. Yeah. I guess that's the one silver lining for us here with the Mike Smith, the Carrey move. So I would have had the ducks atop this division if it weren't for the fact that Ryan Kessler and Sammy Vattenen are going to miss. is fair to say a significant chunk of the start of the season?

I don't even know when they're coming back. It seems like they're going to be out for at least a couple months. So those are big losses for them. And I think that's enough. These teams are close enough to bump them down to second or third in division. But if they were healthy, I would have liked them the most, I think, out of any of these teams. I absolutely agree with that. I had Anaheim at the top until the news of how severe these injuries were.

and I had them, I think, when I was doing my previews in second, but I actually have them in fourth now behind Calgary, San Jose, and Edmonton. So I have them outside the playoff picture because these injuries are probably a lot more severe than people think. Ryan Kessler is out until Christmas, batten in until November. Hamph is Lindholm until November. They're missing two top four defensemen. They're number one defensemen, depending on who you ask. And they're missing their second line center. they have Antoine Vermet as their second line center right now.

I think these injuries will be, like there's, they could really stumble all the gate, and apparently Ryan Getslap isn't 100% healthy either, so that could be another big issue. Well, this could be a good, as you were mentioning with Mike Smith, this could be a good analytics litmus test

because for a long time now, we've wondered who's really driving the bus on that Silverbird Cogliano-Kessler line, and it'll be fascinating to see how those guys do without Kessler in the lineup now. And if they stay afloat and keep up what they were doing before, then all of a sudden that's really going to be an indictment on Kessler's value. Whereas if they crater, then all of a sudden we might have to actually start giving him

a bit more credit than maybe we've wanted to in the past. I definitely see that. It just, it might be hard because the swing in talent between Ryan Kessler and Antoine Vermet is really large. If they play with Ricard Raquel and still kill it, then there's definitely an argument for the other two. It's just Bermette

sucks. Yeah, that's a nice way to put it. Yeah. So, what are we saying about the sharks? It seems weird because

like we were, obviously the team made the Stanley Cup final two years ago. They were playing really well last year even though people sort of like just kind of stopped talking about them and obviously they lost in the first round so that didn't help their cause.

But like I think they didn't really lose that much this summer. I mean, losing David Schlemco hurts, but I mean, that's a third pairing defenseman. And losing Patrick Marlow, he's met a lot of our franchise. But I think even if you bump up a guy like Kevin LeBonk or Timo Meyer, they could very conceivably replicate a lot of what Marlowe did. So, like, why aren't people more optimistic about the sharks than they might have been in the past?

I feel like they didn't lose much in terms of players, but they lost a lot of. lot in age because they're I think one of the oldest teams in the league and it really feels like their window is just about slammed shut at this point they obviously still have a lot of very good players but all of those good players are probably on the wrong side of the age curve at this point there's a lot of reasons to like them but I still feel like they're like basically just a slightly above average team at this point and they should they should be in the playoffs but if they missed it wouldn't be surprising

if they contend it wouldn't be surprising either it really just depends on how much gas there is left in the tank and whether some of those young guys like Timo Meyer I don't even remember if Thomas Hurtle is still considered young anymore he's been in the league so long Joe Boelowski yeah young Joe Velsky they can step up then

there might be something there but there is some issues on this team, like every other team. There's an issue on every team, and I think for San Jose is just the issue of age and their depth outside of those older players. Yeah, I think that's a fair way to frame it, that I think they're going to be really good in the regular season, but I think like their ceiling in terms of being cup contenders is very limited.

I want to give a plug because you wrote this up earlier in the summer, so it might have already been forgotten by now, but I did note that the sharks have, I think, a fairly easy schedule compared to some of the other teams. So maybe that could help them a little bit. But let's bounce to a central division here because this is the one that I spent the most amount of time just kind of like flip-flopping teams back and forth and trying to like come up with the pros and cons for what order I liked. And I still don't necessarily even really have one. So hopefully this discussion will help me iron some of that stuff out. so the avalanche are pretty clearly at the bottom here but then beyond that i mean like how do you how do you have it from

one to six in this division uh i think one to six was really really tough until the robbie fabry injury and seeing the blues willingly put chris thorburn in their lineup um so i think the blues now are the sixth team. They were in the mix before and it was really tough, but now that this unfortunate thing happened to them, I'm not as confident with them anymore.

I think the other five teams are really difficult. From two to five, I have 0.2 points separating them. That's not a lot. Not a lot. Like any order is fine, but I think you might be surprised that

I have the Chicago Blackhawks at number one. That's probably hot take. Do you think that's... Wait, so your model has them number one or you have them number one? My model, like literally because of... It's because of star players, right? It's because they have stars and because their young guys are actually pretty good,

that their forward depth looks underrated. And they were going to play... They signed Tommy Winkles and Lance Boma in the office. season and if they played both of them, they're in the mix with those other four teams. But the fact that they have John Hayden starting instead of Tommy Wingles was a big plus for them. Alex Dubrinke, will might get more missed and we think he was sent down yesterday, but that was likely a paper move. Their young guys are pretty good. Ryan Hartman, Nick Schmaltz, Tannockiro, like, they're fun.

I think Ryan Hartman is actually much better than he gets credit for. He did really well in Lominus last year. Their defense is obviously really sketchy, but they do have Cody Franzen as a seventh defenseman. I think that could be a promising addition. And they have their stars. They have Keith, Crawford, Cain, Sad, Taves. I think they'll be better than a lot of analysts give them credit for,

but they're still not as good as maybe some of the mainstream things. Like even though I have them first in their division, I still have them as a 97 point team, which is still not high. And you can still expect them to fall back. I just think they're, I don't think they have as many flaws as the other four teams in their division. Yeah, I have no idea how they finished with 109 points last year. That seems crazy to me.

Yeah, I'm not sure about it either. but they won't do that but I think they'll still be good I'm so tempted to you know get ahead of it and make this the year that I predict that the Blackhawks are going to fall off the map and miss the playoffs but I just can't do it

I can't get myself to do it and I guess I'm I was hoping that you would help nudge me to that direction but you've done the exact opposite I'm not sorry about it so the other four teams I have at number five I have Nashville because of their injuries.

I had them number one until the Ryan Ellis injury, and now they're number five. Number four, I have Dallas because of their refusal to play Julius Honka regularly. Number three, I have Minnesota, and number two, the Winnipeg Jets. Oh, boy. All right, yeah, we talked about this before the podcast

that we might be the two biggest Jets homers outside of Winnipeg, and yeah, you're, Wow, you're not wrong. I had the Jets fourth in this division, and I thought I was giving them credit. But yeah, I mean, listen, if they can finally, like it's pretty much what we're just talking about

with the hurricanes, right? If they can get league average goaltending from Steve Mason and Connor Helleboik, there is so much to like here, especially on the forward group that, I mean, they're upside. If we said the sharks' upside is limited, I mean, the jets have all the upside in the world here if everything comes together for them.

Yeah, and the other thing is they have, I think, the easiest, one of the easiest schedules in the league. So I have them ranked below the wild and stars in terms of how strong they are, but I have them above because their schedule bumps them up just a little bit. But the top their lineup is incredible. Their top six is probably one of the best in the league. They have two clear-cut number one defensemen.

They have defensive depth, which they didn't have last year. It's just their bottom six, which is a huge question mark, and it got even bigger when they sent Kyle Connor down. I thought he would take a big step this year and give them the depth they needed last year. I think it's all going to come down to same thing as it did last year, special teams and their goal-tending

and their special teams, considering how much talent they have, they should be a lot better, but I think that's a big Paul Maurice problem as he's famous for not being very good at those special teams units. Yeah, yeah. No, you're right about that. I mean, there are flies in the ointment, but man, it's tough not to get enamored with that forward group and just dream of what they could do if everything comes together.

Yeah, I think Minnesota is an interesting team because, like, they really had a tale of two seasons last year where they started off incredibly hot and won a ton of games, but it seemed unsustainable. And then after the trade deadline, they started playing much better at 5-1-5, but Devin Dubnick came down to Earth a bit, so they started losing. and then Jake Allen went nuts in that playoff series and they lost and everyone's like, I told you, Bruce Boodrow can't win in the playoffs. Like, I still really like this wild team. They don't really have those like notable stars atop the roster, but just like the committee that they have there is remarkable. And they can really just roll their team without very many flaws.

And I think it's very reasonable to have them at top, like near the top of the central division once again. Yeah, they definitely have the argument for it. I was not huge on them using Jason Palmaville as a throw-in to trading Marco Scandela because I think he's still a very capable forward. So I don't think their forward depth is as strong as it was last year, but they still got a pretty solid top nine, especially if Joel Ericksonet can be as good as advertised. Right.

Yeah, no, I buy that. Yeah, so I had the Predator as a topist division because as I said, I did it based on who I think are the best teams, and I sort of accounted for when Ryan Ellis comes back, but obviously he's missing a large chunk of the season, and that's going to knock them down to standings a little bit. So, yeah, it's, man, if the Blackhawks end up another year atop the Central Division, that's going to be quite something.

Yeah, I definitely think Nashville is the best team here. I just not without Ryan Ellis, though. And their forward depth actually looks really sketchy, especially if they have Nick Benino as a second line center. Obviously, that top line is really good. It's just the bottom has a lot of question marks. Yeah, yeah, that's right. All right, Dom, let's get out of here.

The construction zone outside of my house looks like it's starting up. So before the drilling comes on this audio track, let's say our farewells. Do you want to plug anything? What are you working on these days? I am not doing, well, I just started my full-time job, The Athletics, so I've been writing a lot more lately, but it's slowed down since those season previews have ended. I'm doing one final update for today that factors in all the training camp battles and all the trades that were made since I wrote those things.

So some of the changes that I talked about on this podcast, and that'll be up later today. And there'll be a link to probabilities that I'll update daily for the athletic, as well as my game probabilities will be there. as well. And yeah, other than that, I don't have any ideas for the start of the season because the start of the season is a hard time to write

because nothing has happened yet. Yeah, you don't want to have any crazy hot takes after like two games. All right, well, I appreciate you coming on and chatting about this, and I definitely recommend everyone follows your work at the athletic and on Twitter, and we'll have you back on as the year gets going.

All right, thanks for having me. Chat soon, buddy. The Hockey PEOCast with Dmitri Filipovich. Follow on Twitter at Dim Philipovich and on SoundCloud at SoundCloud.com slash hockeypedeocast.