The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 219: Riding The Flyers Rollercoaster

Episode Date: January 25, 2018

Charlie O’Connor joins the show to help deep dive the never-ever-boring Philadelphia Flyers. 0:40 The rollercoaster ride this season 5:45 Case for trading vs. keeping Wayne Simmonds 11:45 The annual penalty kill woes 18:30 Giroux and Voracek’s return to form 27:40 Sean Couturier’s breakout campaign 35:30 The Provorov Eye Test 43:45 Handicapping the Metro Division Sponsoring today’s show is SeatGeek, which is making it easier than ever before to buy and sell sports and concert tickets. They’re giving our listeners a $20 rebate off of their first purchase. All you have to do is download the free SeatGeek app and enter the promo code PDO to get started. Every episode of the podcast is available on iTunes, Soundcloud, Google Play, and Stitcher. Make sure to subscribe to the show so that you don’t miss out on any new episodes as they’re released. All ratings and reviews are also greatly appreciated. Thanks for listening! See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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My name is Dimitri Filipovich. and joining me. He's climbed down from the greased up pole down in Philly to come chat with us here about the Flyers. It's Charlie O'Connor. Charlie, what's going on, man? Hey, it's good to be back to Mitre. It's been a while.

And yeah, you're catching us at a fun time. Honestly, the Flyers are fun too, but they're getting overshadowed just a bit by a certain football team in the city. Yeah, the Flyers are definitely always a good time. Or maybe it's not a good time if you're a fan of the Flyers. You're covering them on a daily basis, but they certainly provide us with a lot of.

of storylines to get into yeah it's been um it's been a while since we had you in the show i feel like we had you around this time last year i feel like it was sort of like a mid-season sort of thing so the fact that it's been a year now is uh it's been a long time coming definitely definitely and it's always always awesome to be on the show so thanks so much for wrapping me all right let's uh let's do this thing so the flyers man they um they're never and i mean i mean ever boring uh you know they always it always seems like it's something with them right it's like they have that 10 game losing streak then then they followed up immediately with a six-game winning streak. They're now eight and two in the new year.

But it's always like, even when they're winning games, it's always like something's going on. It's always overtime magic or something. Like it's never just a simple cut and dried victory where they're leading from start to finish and there's no stress. It's always something with them. They truly are never boring. And it's funny because like last year they had the 10 game winning streak.

And then they were the first team to ever miss the playoffs after having a 10 game winning streak in the season. Now this year they have a 10 game losing streak. and now they're sitting in a playoff spot. So they may make the playoffs after having a 10-game losing streak and then miss it the year before after having a 10-game winning streak, which is it's so classic flyers. It's just there's never, you really can never predict what's going to happen next with this team.

Yeah, there was, I feel like that encapsulates the roller coaster ride that is following this team. Yeah, you mentioned, I mean, they're sitting third right now in the Metro Division, and obviously that's kind of tenuous footing. I mean, you know, they're tied with the Devils for a second in the division with 56 points, but the next four teams right behind them are all within, three points of them. So I feel like there's going to be a lot of jockeying for position and it seems like every day you can say something and then by the next day it'll be proved irrelevant. But

the point is that they're in that thick of teams they're fighting for the playoff spot and that provides them with sort of an interesting next couple weeks here because I don't know, what do you think in terms of what they should be setting their sights for come the trade deadline because I was going to say there's a lot of interesting decisions but there aren't too many sort of valuable impending free agents on this team where it's like, oh, you better, you know, if you're not going to contend this year, you better

retain them, you better get some sort of asset back for them. You don't want to see them walk. I mean, like, a guy like Val Filpiel, I don't know, I don't know what he's going to attract in the trade market, even if he is available. Yeah, they really only have the two expiring contracts, Philpola being the one, and then Brandon Manning being the other. And you don't,

you don't think either of those guys are really going to move the needle. You know, maybe somebody wants to add Philpill as a as a depth guy to, you know, add depth to their, their, you know, center position because he has playoff experience and whatnot. Maybe somebody sees Manning as a seven, a guy they can stick in the press box in case people get hurt in the playoffs. But no, the flyers are in a position where, you know,

they could try to sell or they could try to buy. But the problem is, is that obviously Ron Hextel, his whole philosophy is building from within. And he's not stupid. He knows this team isn't. And they can get in the playoffs. They certainly could do that. But they're not going to do a ton of damage unless things really, really break their way.

This is a team that is in an organization that's built to win two years from now. So it's hard to imagine he would really dive into his prospect pool or his draft pick pool and start giving away pieces to try to make the second round rather than just make the first round. At the same time, you know, there's there are spots in this lineup. he could look to, you know, maybe fill with some depth pieces, maybe, you know, trade away a mid to late round pick for another forward, who on an expiring contracts. There are moves that he could make, but it's interesting because, as I said, you know, just a month ago, people were talking about that they were one of the worst teams in hockey and now we're unironically discussing whether they might actually look to add a piece at the deadline. So you never know. Maybe by the time the end of February rolls around, they've jumped, they've gotten on another eight game losing streak or something, and now they're just trying to sell off anything they can. So we'll see. But they have options at the deadline. They certainly have pieces. Like if they did decide they wanted to go out and add something they could. I just, I don't think they will want to do that based on the situation they're in now. See, I'm thinking going completely the other way here, though. And obviously it's easy for me as, you know, I have no emotional attachment or anything. I'm just sitting here at home just thinking about,

maximizing your assets and sort of optimizing everything you have. And the name I keep coming back to is Wayne Simmons. And I understand that, you know, it's, that's probably not going to be a very popular decision if they do decide to trade him one day, considering that he's a fan favorite and what he's meant to that franchise ever since he was traded there. But I do wonder what the market for him would be like.

Like, I know he hasn't had the best season so far, but that's one of those things where, I mean, the track record speaks for itself. And they could very easily over the next couple weeks, put him up on that top line and pump up his value a little artificially. But I mean, he's sort of the, you know, his profile net front guy sort of plays that physical brand of hockey but can also kill penalties.

He basically does everything. He's sort of the perfect playoff player. And you could imagine that some contender, I don't know, I don't know who it would be, but they could talk themselves into paying some sort of ludicrous premium package to get him for potentially two playoff runs. So I don't know, like is that something that's too crazy or do you think that would actually be a possibility? Yeah, the Simmons question is fascinating.

and I think it was talked about more during the losing streak because the way I look at, the way I look at Wayne Simmons is, you know, he's a guy where the flyers are going to have a really tough decision if they keep them. This is assuming they don't trade him. They're going to have a really tough decision when his contract expires in a year and a half because the only way it would make sense to retain him is if they're competitive, like, at the time his contract expires. Because to retain him, you're probably going to have to sign him to a long-term deal.

And you're probably going to sign him to. a long-term deal where the second half of the deal is going to hurt. So the only way signing him to a long-term deal and retaining him makes sense, you know, from an asset management standpoint, is if you're contending at the beginning of the contract when he's still Wayne Simmons. And the reason why a lot of people were kind of jumped on the bandwagon of maybe it's a good idea to trade him now is because when they were in the heart of the 10-game losing streak, it was very hard to envision that this team was trending in the right direction.

Now it's a little different because they're in a play. off spot. A lot of the young guys are trending in the right direction, training the direction that people thought they were going to or hoped they were going to. Now it's a little bit more plausible that they could be a legitimate contender in two seasons. And the flyers, as I said, they're in a tough spot because he is, he's a key member of that leadership core. And plus, just from a Philadelphia standpoint, you know, I know we talk about how, you know, hockey guys love him, but Philadelphians love him because he brings that, you know, that energy, not even just energy, but just physicality that they love the whole broad tree bullies mentality.

And it's not just the fans. The front office loves it too. And I think there's a feeling that, you know, maybe they'll be willing to overpay for Simmons because he fits the mold of what they want a Flyers player to be. But at the same time, you know, at some point you have to, you know, face the facts. And if the team, if next year the team isn't good, you can't sign him to a six-year deal operating under the assumption that, well, we're definitely going to be good the following year because you don't know. Maybe you are. Maybe young players take a step forward.

But you can't take a leap of faith and sign a guy like him. He's probably going to get like a Loochich deal. You would think he deserves one like that based on his past production. But do you want to be the team that gives it to him if you don't know if you're going to be any good in the first two, three years of that deal? So it's a tough question. And truthfully, from a pure asset management standpoint, it probably makes sense to move him. My guess is the Flyers won't because of the, you know, there's an attachment to a player like that. And you mentioned about how he hasn't been that good this year.

And I agree, his numbers aren't as good. It does need to be noted, though, that he basically played injured for a month. So that did deflate his numbers. My guess is he probably should have been sitting out for about two or three. weeks in November, and he just played through it because he's Wayne Simmons, and that's something that, again, the front office loves because, you know, it's that, you know, play through anything for the good of the team type of thing. So maybe it makes sense to trade him, but I just, I find it hard to imagine they will. I think they're just going to end up biting the bullets, signing him,

and then it might not be a great contract, but they're just, they have so many young guys and they have a couple of guys on really good contracts, like a Turier and Genghasa spare, that You know, well, ideally you want everybody on good contracts. It might not be the end of the world if they're overpaying Wayne Simmons. Yeah. I mean, when you were talking there, I think Luchich is sort of the obvious comparison in terms of from a contractual perspective and sort of the playing styles. I guess when Luchich signed his deal, he was a few years younger than Simmons will be. Simmons is going to be 31, I believe, that summer. So, I mean, it would be, even if you're the biggest fan of him, just based on what we know, it would be pretty crazy at that point of his career to give him a five, six, seven year deal. You know, we've seen sometimes the GMs just can't help themselves. So if it's not Ron Hextall on the flyers, I'm sure that there's going to be one team out there that would be willing to give him that.

So I don't know. It is a tough thing because, you know, he has obviously the net front presence part of his game, especially on the power play where I think that's probably going to age pretty well. But he also does so much other stuff that might not get as much recognition and just based on his sort of build and kind of the type of game he plays. I wonder how that will age in the next couple of years. years. So that's going to be a faster anything to follow. It definitely will. And, you know, one of the things that I've talked about, you know, kind of on radio shows and whatnot with Simmons, and it's hard to know whether a player would take a deal like

this. But, you know, if you're the Flyers, I would, I would heavily push him to, you know, maybe overpay him for a three-year deal. You know, he might be worth, you know, five, six million dollars, A.A.V on a long-term deal. But if you pay him eight over three years, like, you know, maybe that makes more sense for the flyers. Now, of course, Simmons is going to want the long-term deal. It makes perfect sense. But, you know, that might be the route I try to take if I'm negotiating with them. Because they can start negotiating with them on July 1.

So, you know, maybe you get a read on whether he's open to more of a short-term deal. And if he is, then you can go down that path. You know, I'm way more willing to overpay a guy on a short-term deal than, you know, maybe cut down the AV a little bit. But then you've got him for his age 35, 36, 37. seven years. No, that's 100% true. Yeah, so I was, you know, in preparation for the show, I was looking a bit closer at all the flyers numbers and sort of their statistical profile and what I'm forming in my opinion or helping form it based on what I've seen from them in the past couple weeks. And, you know, for the most part, especially at 5-1-5, they seem like

they're kind of a middle of the pack team. I think they've been trending upwards a little bit. But the thing that really caught my eye and I don't know, maybe this is just sort of something that isn't actually rooted in in truth, but it's just something that I've conjured up in my head. but I'm kind of always curious because I know that for years there, when Steve Mason was their goalie, there was always a discrepancy between his 5-1-5 performance in terms of safe percentage and his overall, and it was mostly just because he was getting completely caved in whenever the flyers would go on the penalty kill. And this year, it's sort of a similar deal, especially with Brian Elliott, right? Where I think that as a team, they're second and safe percentage of 5-15, and then there's second worst

than ahead of Just Edmonton, I believe, whenever they go down a man. And then I'm kind of curious if that's a talent thing, both in terms of the penalty killers and the goalies themselves, or if it's a system and coaching thing. Like, what are you seeing with that? Yeah, the penalty call question is so fascinating because what was interesting about what the Flyers did in the previous offseason was they let go Joe Mullen, who was their longtime power play coach. But they kept around Ian LaPierre, who is their longtime penalty kill coach, who's been their coach for the, the past, I believe, for the previous four years. He took over when they elevated Craig Barrube to head coach because Barabuble used to manage the penalty kill.

And really, this is a problem that has been, you know, it's been there basically since the second year of La Perrier's tenure as assistant coach in charge of the penalty kill. And you almost wonder if the reason why they kept him around, aside from the fact that, you know, they like La Perrier, he kind of functions as like a, you know, the players. coach in that in that group that, you know, players kind of have a shoulder to lean on. But you wonder if they almost, they gave him a pass because they just sort of decided that, well, Mason is just bad on the penalty kill. This is in LaPriere's fall because if you look at like the scoring chance numbers,

they don't seem that bad for the penalty kill. And I almost wonder if they sort of pinned it on Mason. And that might have been one of the reasons why they let Mason go without really putting on much of a fight. Now this year, you have Brian Elliott, who historically has been pretty good on the penalty kill, or at least not noticeably bad, and the same thing's happening. So, you know, yeah, it could just be variance. You know, obviously penalty kill, it's not a huge sample size either way, even in a full

year. So it's possible this could just be fluky, but you're starting to think that there's something here. And I don't think it's the players because while there's, you know, the talent they have on the penalty kill, it's not dropped out of amazing. I wouldn't expect them to be a top five penalty kill. But, you know, Sean Guterre is a good penalty killer. Wayne Simmons showed some real talent last year.

Claude Jureus historically been a great penalty killer. They have guys who really should be on a better penalty kill than this. And I've done a lot of work doing tape study of the Flyers penalty killer over the last few years. And the thing that really sticks out to me is that they have a real focus. And it kind of makes sense based on the player that La Perrier was. you know, he obviously got basically got the Masterson Trophy because he came back from getting, you know, shot in the face by Pucks multiple times. Right. You know, he was a shot blocker.

That's what he did. You know, he put his body on the line to block shots. And what you see, I think, a lot of times with the Flyers penalty kill is that they prioritize getting in shooting lanes over actually either directly attacking the puck carrier or clearing the crease. And what happens a lot, I feel like, is I feel like they end up screening their own goal. or they totally lose the guy in front of the net. So if the puck does get through and there's a rebound because the goalie couldn't necessarily see the shooter because the guy was in the lane, then the guy in front has, you know, nobody's pressuring him so he can just, you know, put the puck in the net,

you know, wide open in front. And to me, that might be it. I'm sure there's a lot of things going on here. You can't absolve Elliott entirely just like you couldn't absolve Mason entirely. But this has gone on so long. They have the worst penalty kill save percentage, I believe, over the past four years by like an entire percentage point. It's bizarre how bad they are from a say percentage standpoint of the penalty goal relative to the rest of the league. You start to think that there's got to be something near tactically because the personnel keeps changing, the goalies keep changing and it's the same problem over and over again.

And I would be blown away if LePierre has a job next year with the Flyers because, you know, There's just, there's no way to justify why he should continue to coach a penalty kill that continues to be one of the worst in the league every year. Right. Especially, yeah, it's, it's not like it's a one or two year thing even if it's been, it's a dating back for four or five years now. And I think this sort of, this is a sort of theoretical or philosophical debate is, is fascinating to me because you obviously need to sort of have a certain baseline level of

talent to actually execute certain stuff. But I think for the most part, teams generally have at least a couple guys who should be very good on the penalty killer, very good in the power play. I think that is the special teams component of the game is where the coaching staff can really sort of make its mark and either make a team look better than they are or make a team look worse than they are as opposed to five on five where I think it's much more of a free-flowing sort of thing where talent will win out. So the fact that year over year they're struggling here suggests to me that it's more

of a coaching tactical thing than they don't have the horses to pull it off. Yeah, that's kind of the side I've fallen on. As always, it's going to be more complex than that. Like, this isn't totally LePierre's fault. But at the same time, year over year, when it's the same problem, you know, it could even just be, you know, a pregame scouting thing. You know, maybe he's not a great coach when it comes to scout in the opposing power plays. There's a lot of things to go into this.

But when it's a four-year thing and not only is the penalty kill always bad, it's always the same problem that goalies can't stop the puck. Like, there's only so long you can just keep blaming it on the goalies. Yeah. The goal is always get blamed when the puck's not getting stopped. It's the nature of the beast. So this summer, I was doing a mailbag show while everyone else was enjoying their vacation and time off from hockey. I was banging out podcast.

And one of the most interesting questions I got from a listener had to do with the flyers. And it was sort of, it got into the idea that there's this disparity in timeline or readiness between their forward group, which is sort of, you know, you're the kind of the culture. sorry, McAjuru, Wayne Simmons, Jacob Warichek, you have that sort of nucleus of guys

who are already, you know, either in the latter stages of their prime or we'll be soon exiting it. And then you have sort of this young group of defensemen that are coming up on the way.

I mean, we've obviously seen Probe at the NHL level, but, you know, Sanheim, it will slowly start becoming a regular with the team. You know,

you have Philippe Myers, go on and on. And I wonder, do you sort of see that that kind of disparity there? I mean, obviously, you know, no team is going to have

complete locks that where all their guys are sort of on the same trajectory. That's kind of the nature of the beast. But I do find that fascinating with this team where just based on their composition, it does seem like it raises some interesting questions for what we were talking about earlier in terms of how you approach this trade deadline and whether you see yourself as a contender now or whether you're focusing more on the future because you sort of do want to align that as much as possible so that when all the guys are firing on all cylinders, you can really capitalize. Yeah, I'll agree that in the offseason, that was probably my biggest concern.

surrounding the team was that, you know, right when the young guys were going to get good was going to be when the older guys were going to be flat out liabilities and contract, you know, drags on the rest of the roster. To be honest, the best thing that's happened to the Flyers this year, by far, and there's been a lot of good things that have happened to the Flyers. Kutari's having the breakout year. Gosses, Bears, bounce back, pro-overoff, showing strides. But the most important thing that's happened to this team this year is that Claude Drew and Jake Forrecheck are Claude Drew and Jake Forich again, because last Last year was a down year for both of them. And particularly for Drew, it was a scary down year because Drew did not look good.

He was, you know, he's, you just turned 30 this year. So he's coming up on that, like, that part of your career where you worry if a four could possibly fall off the cliff. And Claude Drew looked like a guy who you could make a strong case was falling off the cliff. And, you know, at the end of the year, it got revealed that, you know, Drew was still, he claimed he was still suffering from the after effects of his officer. season surgery. And, you know, that made fans feel a little bit better. But at the same time, you know, first off, it could just be an excuse. Secondly, you know, just because it was the surgery's fault doesn't mean that he's necessarily

ever going to get back to where he was before the surgery. And at number three, you know, you just looked at the numbers and you looked at a guy who used to be a great play driver, used to be a great score. He scored like a fourth liner, a five on five last year. Like, it was ugly and he looked bad doing it. This year, he's kind of been revitalized. And, you know, one of the great moves that Haxstall made this year, he hasn't made, you know, a bunch of them. But one of the truly brilliant moves was moving Drew to wing.

And him and Kuturier have really, you know, brought out the best in each other. In addition, and Drew just looking healthier. Like, it's very obvious that the surgery did hamper him. He looks faster. He looks stronger. And he's just generally a more effective player. And, you know, then you have Vorichek, who also has something of a down year. You know, it was the first year, really, of his career where he was underwater by advanced metrics.

by Corsi and by expected goals. And that was scary because, you know, yeah, he's younger than Drew, but he's also in his late 20s. And if both those guys fell off a cliff at the same time and they both have $8 million dollar deal, $8 million year deals with four or five more years left, like that could have been a disaster. And both of those guys have stepped back up. And, you know, you can expect that they're going to decline. Obviously, you know, the aging curve is undefeated.

But there was a chance that Drew was actually going to be bad. And now he's back to being a really good player again. So you reassess, okay, well, he'll kill decline, but he's back to declining from a very, very high point. And same thing with Vorichek. So now the timeline looks like it might line up a little bit better because now this year he's on pace for like 90 points. If he declines, but he's still a 70 point forward,

then that's fine. That fits with the timeline. If he declines and he's a 30.4 with power play time, that's terrifying. And that was the concern that last year provided. But the improvement of both those guys this year has been huge because it makes everything look like it's going to fit a little bit better with regards to the timelines of the vets versus the younger guys. Yeah. I'm not sure how much, you know, the casual fan or someone who wasn't following the flyers on a day-to-day basis last year sort of noticed what was going on there, right?

Because the numbers obviously as a whole dip, but their power play was so good that it was kind of propping things up on a superficial level. but when you looked a bit closer, I mean, for the whole entire team almost, like the 5-on-5 numbers in terms of goal generation were shockingly low. And, yeah, the Drew thing is fascinating. There's a lot going on there because obviously, like, that should have been number one on their agenda in terms of what they were trying to get done this season in terms of figuring out what they had in him and whether they could, you know, get him back to something resembling his peak form because, as you mentioned,

he has four more years after this one and a lot of money owed to him. And I'm kind of curious, you know, he has looked better from what I've seen. Part of it is, you know, he's been benefiting for some pretty good fortune in terms of the puck balances. And then obviously, you know, it's one thing that he's moved off center and maybe he has less responsibility now. And he's benefiting from playing on the wing, but then also playing where the guy like Sean Couturee and having the puck is often as they do now, I imagine, is helping boost those numbers quite a bit. Yeah, the Coturier thing is huge. And I think really what it's what it's allowed him to do, both the move to wing and the, the, being put with Coutureus, it's allowed Jure to simplify his game because, you know, last

year, not only was he playing injured, he, one of the things with Jureu, and I'll always say this about him, in a way it's a compliment, but it also, you know, speaks to why he can struggle, is that, you know, he is so intense on the ice, and he gets in his own head. And when he gets into his own head, he literally tries to do everything, and it results in him being able to do nothing well. And I think a lot of that was happening last year, in addition to the fact that he was slower. This year, he's been allowed to basically just be a playmaker. And we've actually talked about this before the show, I think a couple weeks ago. Drew's shot numbers are way down.

He's not shooting the puck at all, even in comparison to last year. The thing is, it hasn't mattered because his job or his role when he's on the ice with Couturier is to create space and get the puck to Coturier. And that's why Kuturier's goal score numbers are through the roof. And it's why Drew's number's staying good. Like, yeah, Drew isn't going to keep shooting it. I think he's like 18 or 19% or something. That's going to go down. But even if you control for that, he's still basically a point per game guy.

And that's coming from the fact that, you know, now I think he doesn't have to win all the puck battles and down low in the defense's zone. And he doesn't have to take the shots. You know, one thing that was popping up in all the numbers recently was that Drew's shot distance, individual shot distance, was through the roof. Like he was shooting from further and further out every year. And maybe that was because he wasn't able to get to the high danger areas to take shots anymore. Now he doesn't have to.

Now, Kuturie does that for him. And now Juru's job is just to get him the puck and let him get to the high danger areas and score. So this is helping him on a number of levels. But in a lot of ways, the Keturier pairing, I think, you know, it's accounting for maybe his, his newfound weaknesses as a player, and it's just letting him play to his strengths at even strength. And you're seeing the results. He's back to, you know, scoring like a first line or not just like a first line, like a really good first liner at five on five. And even if the shooting percentage comes down, which I suspect it will, you know, he's still going to be above, you know,

2.0 points per 60, which is, you know, basically first line level. Yep. All right, I want to talk more about Gutruria here. Let's take a quick break to hear from a sponsor and we'll get into that on other side of things. today's show is see keek see keek makes it easier than ever to buy tickets to sporting events and concerts and get rid of all the complications and the confusing stuff that goes along with

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so you like Keith Egan and his friends could go watch your favorite team play and hopefully that game will not involve the Buffalo Sabres. Now let's get back to the show. All right. So we obviously teased it a bit before the break, but we have to have a discussion here about Sean Couturea. And I got to give us a credit. We waited what, 25, 26 minutes here to get into an actual discussion about Sean Cacchiria. I feel like people would have been just mashing the under there because it seems like. like obviously it's the natural sort of talking point,

especially we've been, you and I and many others that are more analytically friendly have been talking up this guy for years. And now finally this year, it's kind of come all together for him. And obviously he's getting used in a more offensive role and playing with better players. And they've really just kind of handed over the car keys to him

as the number one center and he's taken off. And it's always fascinating to me because we go through this dance every year. It seems like with a new guy where it's like, for years, their underlying numbers are tremendous. And they really should be getting more sulkily. love, but they don't have enough points or enough offensive mainstream production to justify it. And then all of a sudden, when that happens, then everyone just kind of jumps on board. And I think my most, my favorite example of that was here locally in Vancouver.

It happened with Ryan Kessler where, you know, he was this dominant defensive center for years, but he wasn't really being used that way. And then all of a sudden they put him on the power play with the Cedines and he scores 40 goals. And everyone's like, oh, like Ryan Kessler, what an amazing two-way center. It's like, yeah, he's been this guy the whole time. He just wasn't being used that way. but that's exactly what's happening with Catrurié this season. And I'm fascinated to see how much love he gets for Asalki.

It's going to be pretty tough to dethrone a guy like Patrice Bergeron. And you could certainly make a case for him as well again this year. But Catrude has got to be right up there. I feel like those are sort of the two obvious guys for that award. Yeah, yeah. To me, and as you said, we've been talking up Couturee for a long time. His production this year has even shocked me. Because I always, I viewed his ceiling as,

basically like, you know, 60, 65 points. And he's still on pace. He's still basically point per game. You know, he's, he's on pace for, you know, 40 goals and 80 something points. And that's, that's insane to me that he's showing this degree of offensive, you know, of offensive skill. Because it's obvious when you watch him, like, what his limitations are. He's not the fastest guy in the world. He's not slow. He's definitely improved his overall skating as he's, you know, grown in the NHL. But, you know, he's not a Ryan Kessler, who was, obviously, and still is pretty fast, but when he was in his prime, he was a bullet. Guterre is more of a steady skater.

He controls the game, but it's more, you know, winning battles down low and breaking up plays in the defensive zone and then sending his his linemates back the other way. So I didn't think he could ever do this. And it's just been fascinating to watch his game progress so quickly this year because number one, when he, you know, going into the season, everyone just assumed he was going to be the second line center, people figured, you know, Drew is Drew. He's the one C. And then around the midpoint of training camp, they switched Drew over to wing. And it looked like it was just going to be an experiment. You know, maybe like, well, we can stack these guys at the

end of games if we have to. And it just seemed to click. And then the start of the year, they stacked the first line with Drew, Kuturie, and Vorchek, and the first line was one of the best lines in hockey for basically the first month of the year. And Kutri, you know, he's never been a goal score in his NHL career. Even, even at five on five, you know, he's been more of an assist guy. And now, as I said, you know, they're simplifying Drew's game. They're simplifying Guterre's game, too, at five on five. You know, he's still the same guy in the defense zone, but in the offensive zone, he's basically told, get to the net. Get to the net and your playmakers on your line will find you. And what

you're seeing out of him now is that he's got incredibly soft hands around the net. You know, he's made a number of plays into goals that really shouldn't have been because he's able to corral the puck down low and corral the puck in the nefront area and the crease and beat a goalie, you know, whether it's a rebound or whether it's, whether it's on a rush or whether it's just a cycle down low. It's just a part to his game that, you know, maybe was always there, but no one really knew because he never played with a Drew. He played with Voracek a bit over the last couple years, but certainly he never played with Drew because they were both centers. And you're getting that out of them. And then in addition, he's still the same guy defensively. You know,

he's still one of the best defensive centers in hockey. And he's, been that for the last two or three years. And what you're getting is just this, this, really this monster of a center. And as I said, I thought Cotaria was going to be good. I thought he could be good. I didn't think he was going to be this good. You know, he's, he's on Power Play 1 in the Braden Shenz spot, and he's scoring goals. He's scoring goals at a fairly high rate in the sniper spot in a high power play.

And that's something that, you know, even me, I never expected he was going to be able to do that. Yeah, that's an important note there. I don't want us to hurt ourselves patting each other in the back because he's never even cracked 40 points in that HL and he's going to crack 40 goals this year. So that's, yeah, it's crazy. It really is the perfect storm, but you're right. It's worth noting that obviously the offensive production is great and now he's going to get much more attention, much more love for various individual accolades. But the underlying stuff that made him so special before is still there. And you look at the discrepancy with like for the flyers when he's.

on the ice versus when he's not and it's even better this year than it's been in the past and that's something that you know you you sort of have to um give love to because he really whenever he's out there it seems like the ice is slant in the direction for the flyers and that he's just a special player i think that's that's the that's the best way to put it really is a monster season yeah and for the flyers you know it's funny we've i think on this show in the past we've we've talked about you know how great of a contract wayne simmons had you know they were able to lock him up after the to the first year where he was still you know no one was really sure exactly what he was and they got him on this really cheap deal.

And now that cheap deal is coming to a close and they're going to have to make tough decisions on Wayne Simmons. But now they're almost replacing that great contract with Couturier's contract. Same deal. You know, they signed him before this year. They've got what looks like a first line center at, you know, less than $4.5 million a year for an extended period of time. And that's, you know, that's an advantage that they're going to have for the length of his deal over almost every other team in hockey. and combine that with the kids they have on entry-level contracts, and they got Gassas bear signed to a reasonable deal. There are some real advantages the Flyers have, especially as a team that always spends the ceiling.

There are some real advantages they have with these contracts. And you just hope, at Flyers fans certainly hope, that they don't screw it up by signing other guys to bad deals to kind of counterbalance it. But, you know, Couture on this contract is huge for the Flyers. and it solves the one C problem too, because I don't know if we're going to talk about him, but going into this year, there was kind of like a feeling among Flyers fans that Nolan Patrick had to be a one C because there was concern that, you know, Drew was in rapid decline and C he's good, you know, he's good, but he's just a two C, he's a middle six, or he's never going to become the one C that, you know, the Flyers maybe hoped he was going to be when taking

him in the top 10 of the draft. And now, you know, Nolan Patrick, and, you know, he's had his struggles in his rookie year, but he doesn't have to be that one. It's not a disaster if Nolan Patrick is not a first-line center because they have a 25-year-old first-line center on a great contract now. Yeah, really it makes your life a lot easier and kind of puts everything else, allows it to organically slide into place when you have that cornerstone number one center and everything else can fit in after that. I was looking at their other cap-friendly page while you're talking. And, man, Sean Coucherre, yeah, 4.33 million for the next handful of seasons, making less money than Andrew McDonald for the next couple years.

A lot of people are making less money than Andrew McDonald. It's true. Well, quite literally, everyone on their blue line is making less than Andrew McDonald, which is crazy that he's still their highest paid defenseman. But yeah, let's talk about that blue line because, you know, Ivan Provarov is a big time personal favorite of mine and has been ever since he came to the NHL. And I know that you share similar sentiments.

And he's sort of an interesting player because when you watch him, he looks tremendous. I feel like I've never really seen him have a bad game and now obviously I haven't watched every single Flyers game. And actually, I should say he had that minus five, I believe, last year and everyone was freaking out about that. But otherwise, he's, you know, he's so smooth and he sort of does everything that a modern day shutdown defenseman would do in terms of, you know, preventing zone entries. And he's awesome in the neutral zone. And he's so slick with the puck. And everything seems to have a purpose. He's never just recklessly throwing it off the boards and out.

he's always trying to find a guy and he's willing to be patient and let passing lanes develop. And, you know, he's been sort of attached to that Andrew McDonald anchor for a large chunk of his NHL career so far. So it's not surprising that his overall numbers aren't that impressive. But then you see what happens when you put him with a guy like Gossus Bear recently. And when the two of them are together, I believe the fires are controlling like over 55% of the shot attempts or something at 515. And that obviously kind of makes sense. And it makes me believe that, you know, we're right to believe that. that Ivan Proverov really is a legitimate difference maker,

and he was just being held down by his partner, as opposed to being some sort of concern like people have about a guy like Krasnist Ristina or so on and so forth where the physical skills don't match the actual output. Yeah, yeah, and I'll freely admit, you know, while watching him, you see so much greatness in him, there's a worry. There's a worry because the eyes lie sometimes. And maybe this year, finally, I think everybody's sort of coming around

the Rist of Line and isn't that good, But for years, Buffalo fans would swear that, no, this guy is legit. He's legit. We watch him. And now maybe people are realizing that he's, he's not bad, but he's certainly not a, you know, a bona fide first pair defenseman like they wanted to believe he was. And you worry. You worry that maybe you're looking for what you want to see rather than what's there.

But with Proveroff, it just seems so obvious that he was really good. And you watched him with McDonald and he was playing well. But McDonald obviously has a career of deflating. his line mates course season, whatnot. So you kind of gave him a pass. Then this year they put him, when McDonald got hurt, they put Peruv off with Robert Haig. And, you know, Hayg was a rookie,

so you really didn't know what you had in him. And the numbers still didn't look that good. And, you know, I'm more leaning towards the side that Haig is, you know, maybe not to the degree of McDonald, but he's kind of the same type of, like, safe defenseman who gives up a lot of his own entries and, you know, has, does a, he's actually a worst buck mover than McDonald. McDonald's can make a decent for his pass.

Haig has been seemingly coached to do the off the glass and out. And I have hopes that Haye can improve. But it was worrisome because the numbers were still bad with Haig. And then you were like, well, maybe Haig isn't that good. And then you start wondering, am I just making excuses for Proveroff? Is this, am I just thinking to myself that like, well, Proverroff has to be good. So I'm blaming everyone else. And that's why this Gossus bear pairing has been so rewarding, you know, for me in particular.

But I think for fans in general, because it's like, yes. You know, this is what I knew was there, and it wasn't showing up in the numbers, and now it is because this is the first time he's ever been paired with the defenseman. Even his three primary pairings that he's had in his career, he had, like, what was left of Mark Strite, and then McDonald, and then Haig. And none of those guys are really anything above third pair defensemen at the NHL level. Gossis Bear is the first actual difference maker he's had. And you're seeing, you know, he actually did have a poor game.

against the Red Wings last night. It was one of his rare ones. But over the last three weeks, aside for maybe that game, Proveroff has been incredible. I looked at, I was doing my stock report a couple days ago, and over the previous week, this is an incredible stat to me. Over the previous week, which was four games,

Proverov led the flyers in scoring chances from Natural Static. And I'm not just saying led the defense. Like, he led the entire team in scoring chances, which is amazing because he's a defense. And he's also not like a Gossus Bear defensive, where he's constantly taking risks, but just playing with another guy who could, you know, constantly switch sides with him. And, you know, he could, he could move down in the zone and believe that Gossus Bear was going to cover for him. You know, he was being more active in the offensive zone. He was taking, you know, he was, he was just being more of a difference maker than you've ever seen him before. And it was just turning him into this. It seems like it's turning him into this real, real statistical difference maker, rather. than just being good via the eye test. Yeah, it's, it's, I mean, it seems like such an obvious matchmate in heaven. We've been talking about it and hoping for it for a while, and it's good to see it finally

happen. I do wonder sort of from a roster building or lineup construction perspective, like, when you have guys like Andrew McDonald and Robert Haig and, you know, they're now playing together, like it's, it's always fascinating to me what, how you approach, because obviously, ideally you wouldn't have guys like that in the lineup. You would have just guys that are awesome and are always moving the needle for you, but that's unfortunately not the way it works in the salary cap world. and I wonder if it's like one of those things where you acknowledge that things aren't probably going to be great when those guys are on the ice and you're probably going to be sort of turtling in your own zone more often than you'd like, but you just sort of accept that that's going to happen and you play those guys together and you kind of tough out those minutes as opposed to sort of spreading out the wealth and always putting an anchor with a really good guy and hoping for middling results.

I wonder like sort of that, you know, front loading versus spreading the wealth debate is always fascinating to me from a lineup construction perspective. Yeah, no doubt. And I think one of the reasons why the Flyers are doing well from a win-lost standpoint recently is because even though the Hague McDonald pairing, you know, it's getting destroyed territorially. They're losing the shot in chance battle. But they're not doing terrible from a goal standpoint. So like in the short term, it's kind of working. Not to say I expect that to continue. But in the short term, like they're holding their own goals-wise. And then pro ruff and gossip bear are just torching everyone. One thing, though, I will say about the whole, in this particular case, the whole thing about stacking your top pair or the top end of your line of and maybe having other pairs or other lines suffer. To me, one of the really important parts about giving Peroverov a shot with a guy like Goss Bear for an extended period of time is that, you know, I thought it was really important for the flyers to have a more accurate view of what Ivan Peroveroff is for this reason. So he can sign an extension on July 1. And considering the minutes he's gotten, you know, he's been used. who's been used as a first, you know, a first pair number one defenseman, basically since this, you know, maybe since a month and a half into his rookie year, he's going to get paid.

You know, he's going to get probably, he's probably in like the, the Aronac black bracket for a, for a post-ELC, etc. Maybe a little bit lower because he didn't win the Calder, but like he's in that range. And the Flyers have had to know. I don't know if they're even looking at this stuff. But like, for me, if I'm the Flyers, I have to know if Proveroff is as good as I think he is. I have to see that. I can't hand him $60 million over a long-term deal on faith,

you know, thinking, well, he's got to be as good as I think he is. No, I want to see him prove that he's as good as I think he is and see that tangibly show up in the numbers. So even if the Hague-McDonald pairing like falls apart over the next couple, you know, the next month or so, to me it's valuable, you know, just from a future roster construction standpoint, just to know that Proveroff is actually as good as I think he is and make me feel better about giving him all that money.

Yeah. No, definitely. You have to see it to believe it. It's not, you know, I actually need to see it in practice on the ice. But at the same time, at this point, I think I've seen enough. Give them, give them all the money. Is there, is there anything else that we haven't covered yet in terms of this deep dive? Like, I feel like, I mean, we haven't talked much about Yori Letera, but that's, that's, that's, that's for reasons.

Yeah. That's with good reason. I mean, I feel like we kind of hit all the. main points here. I mean, where, let's kind of put a ball on it? Where are you at with this team right now? Because obviously, there's quite a few bright spots and there's reason to be excited. And, you know, they're competing for a playoff spot, which may be during that losing streak seem like a pipe dream. But it's obviously not all, not all peachy either. There's obviously flaws with this team and big decisions ahead. So where are you at with them in terms of kind of taking a stock report right now of them?

Yeah, I mean, I think at this point, they're, They're in a position where if I had to guess, I would say they make the playoffs at this point. Just because I think they have less problems than a lot of the other, than a lot of the other metro teams. I don't know what's going on with the Rangers right now, but it seems like they're kind of a mess. The Islanders, you know, they haven't been that good recently. Carolina, I've referred to them as the best theoretical team in history. Like, they should be good, but something always happens, whether it's goaltending or bad luck or whatever, that they never actually. live up to their underlying numbers.

I think they will make the playoffs. I don't think they'll win around. Maybe they'll give their opponent a decent showing. But to me, what's exciting right now about this team is that the secondary scoring is coming around, which has been great. Travis Kineckney has really stepped up ever since being put on the Jurugritory line. And granted, it helps being with those two guys. But he's only 20 years old.

and this is the first time you're seeing, you know, kind of not to the degree of Provo, but he's a guy who you watch play and you're like, this guy's going to be good, but the numbers weren't there, the scoring wasn't there. Now it's been there. He's won two straight games in overtime just by, you know, finally finding his shot and using his electric speed.

So, you know, he's been a revelation. As I said, you know, Nolan Patrick got off to a really bad start this year. He's one of the worst play drivers in hockey for the first couple months of his career. He's actually been their best, best forward by Corsi in January. so it seems like he's settling in, which is stabilized the third line. You know, it's getting better because at the start of the year, they only had the one line. They only had Drew, Kateri, and Voracek. And now they're in a position where Drew and Keturier seem like they're going to succeed whoever that third wheel is.

Vorichick is basically dragging around Valteri Philippa to the point where that line can at least function decently. And the Patrick Simmons wheel line is working. So now you have three lines that are at least solid. You have that first line that's still great. And you have two lines that can work. And then you have a great first pairing. And hopefully at some point they bring Sanheim back and they reunite them with Goudis because I think that's a pair that has a lot of potential.

But there's holes on this team definitely. But there's enough good things going on that they really should in my mind make the playoffs. And the thing I just go back to is they have three-fourts right now that are among the tie. At least the top 30-fourths in hockey this year might be even. higher. You know, like Dom's game score when he did his post a couple weeks ago, he had Drew Kerturi and Vorichick all in the top 15. I don't think they're still there.

But like, when you have three of the top 15 forwards in hockey, you should make the playoffs. And now, you know, with the fact that the other guys are starting to pick it up, they really should provide enough support to get this team in the playoffs. And that's a step four. That's a step four from last year and hopefully something to build on to, you know, to the next couple seasons. Hmm, a Metro Division team with three of the top 15 forwards who might not make the playoffs.

That sounds super familiar. Do you think what do you think Penguins fans are doing right now? Do you think they're pulling their hair out or do you think they're laughing or crying? I mean, you could pretty much say the exact same thing about them. Yeah, that's true. Although, I mean, I have a lot more respect for the Penguins depth than I do the Flyers' depth, particularly on defense, I guess. And I also think that, I mean, I have a lot more respect for Mike Sullivan. then you obviously have to have respect for a coach who won two straight Stanley Cups.

I expect the Penguins are going to mean the playoffs. I as a border-raised Philadelphia, and I hope they're not there, but it would absolutely shock me if they're not, you know, the second or third seat in the metro when this whole thing shakes out. Well, yeah, handicapping that division is so fascinating because, you know, I feel like the capitals at this point have built up enough of a cushion from those other teams that they'll be fine. But, I mean, even they, you know, they lost so much depth this summer.

and their underlying numbers have been pretty suspect for a while now. Obviously, the talent is still there. But it's not like, you know, their world beaters like they've been in the past. And then the Devils, you know, halls out right now. Corey Schneider went out the other day. They've obviously been kind of outperforming the underlying numbers as well. So it's very conceivable. They fall off the map.

I mean, Columbus was doing great at the start of the year, but now they can't seem to buy a goal. You know, you have all those concerns you mentioned with the New York teams. Like, it's such a fascinating division in terms of handicapping it for how it's going to play out in the – which five teams are going to make the playoffs and how it's going to look in terms of the order because you could really pretty much just put all these teams names into a hat and just pick out five of them.

Yeah, you're absolutely right. And I guess one of the fun parts about it and we can thank the Atlantic Division is that you almost certainly know that five teams are going to make the playoffs out of this division. So it kind of makes the storylines a little bit more interesting because there's lots of different combinations because you know that there isn't a fourth team

coming out of that Atlantic Division because past the top three teams, it's kind of a disaster. Yeah, no, that's 100%. All right, Charlie, plug some stuff. What are you working on these days? Obviously, since the last time we had you on, you've kind of gotten a bit of a promotion and you're covering the flyers full time now for the athletics.

So that's pretty exciting. What are you, other than just kind of game recaps and following them on a daily basis, are you working on any other big projects? Well, I mean, I'm trying to catch back up on my penalty kill project. I've tracked them the last two years. And so it would be great to have a third. year and then really be able to, you know, judge some, some trends over time and maybe make some

observations on repeatability and things like that. So that'll be fun. Aside from that, you know, it's just kind of, kind of getting used to the grind of being a full-time journalist. It's the first time I've ever, ever done this has always been a side gig. So this year's been a blast working for the athletic and run in the flyers section over there. Well, you've been doing a good job. And I hope, I hope it continues. And I hope the flyers give us reason to keep talking about them. And we'll have you back on the show sometime down the road. I'm sure they will. As we said, whether they're winning or losing.

They're never boring. That's, yeah, true words have never been spoken. All right, Charlie. It was fine, and we'll chat soon. All right. Thanks, Demetia. Cheers. The Hockey PDOCast with Dmitri Filipovich.

Follow on Twitter at Dim Philipovich and on SoundCloud at soundcloud. At soundcloud.com slash hockeypedocast.